And then there were 2. Two of the best defenses in College Basketball that is! This has definitely been a different kind of tournament this year. The way that these games have been played has had the officials swallow their whistles for the most part. I do not remember ever seeing it like this and it has made the under continue to be red hot going 2-0 on Saturday. Now this is the lowest championship game total that I can remember at 117 points. Texas Tech ranks first in the league on defense on Kenpom and Virginia ranks 5th. Slight edge to Texas Tech. Virginia ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency at adjusted 1.226 points per possession while Texas Tech ranks 28th at 1.137 points per possession. You would think the edge goes to Virginia here right? The caveat is that Texas Tech has been on fire the last few months and has been the second best team in offensive efficiency since February 3rd at 1.26 points per possession on Bart Torvik. Due to this I have to give this category a push. Both teams obviously play slow with Virginia at 59.3 possessions per game and Tech at 66.5. If you look at the injury report, Virginia is quite healthy but Tariq Owens left last game for Tech with a rolled ankle that looked gruesome. Somehow only a few minutes later, Owens was able to come back on the court after he taped it up and he didn’t miss a beat. I think he will be playing this game being only probable. The Key matchup to me is the guard play. Ty Jerome vs Matt Mooney and Jarret Culver vs Kyle Guy. Virginia’s guards shoot the 3s better but Texas Tech’s Guards play the better defense. Both teams rank top 10 against the 3. This is going to be an amazing match-up but I think the one key factor in this game is that Texas Tech is a bit more rough around the edges than Virginia. Both teams can get in your face but as you saw vs Sparty, Tech’s defense swallowed them up at the perimeter taking our Cassius Winston and shutting down Matt Mcquaid. If the officials decide to swallow their whistles again, the edge goes to the Red Raiders. I think Virginia has been very fortunate vs Purdue and Auburn to advance this far but this is the time that their luck runs out vs an even more aggressive team. The play is Texas Tech half on the spread and half on the ML. I have this game Texas Tech 63-59.
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We have a great show for you today! The final game is set and we have a play for you! Kiev first gets into our first play for the NFL season win totals that was just released. Then, Kiev recaps the final 4 and finally gives us his play for the NCAA Championship Game!
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So by no means am I a professional handicapper for the ponies but I certainly do like to bet them and I follow some professionals that have given out some good advice. The Santa Anita Derby has only 6 horses and the two 30-1 shots are both garbage so not a ton of value here. If you are going to bet 1 individual horse then it should be Roadster at 2.5-1 because there is no value with Game Winner laying -120. The Blue Grass Stakes has a much bigger payout probability and my thoughts are that the 14 horse Aquadini is inexperienced but very fast with great value at 30-1. When he lost to Copper King it was only by a 3/4 length and the other competition was blown away. I am going mostly chalk the rest of the way with an exotic featuring Somelikeithotbrown on the bottom of one of them since he has been a contender in his previous races.
It feels like forever ago that the Auburn Tigers almost lost their first game vs New Mexico State. After Oregon’s loss to Virginia, Auburn became the hottest team in the country and boy did they prove it vs North Carolina and Kentucky. Chuma Okeke tore his ACL two games ago vs the Tarheels and that injury may have actually acted more as a motivation for the other players on this team beating Kentucky last game. Looking at the stats and watching that game, Kentucky only shot 23% from 3 and 57% from the charity stripe. Kentucky was poorly coached this game shooting 21 threes and playing Auburns game while the Tigers were in serious foul trouble with their big forwards all game not to mention being without Okeke. Coach Calipari should have had more pounding done in the paint with Reid Travis and PJ Washington. Either way though you have to give it up to Bryce Brown last game from Auburn bing lights out again and shooting 8-12 for 24 points. He may have played his way into the next level. Virginia on the other hand got shell shocked against Purdue due to Carson Edwards scoring 42 points. They should have lost this game due to Purdue’s boneheaded playing and the end of the game allowing overtime. The fact that Virginia has endured being ousted last year and had a tough NCAA run through adversity makes me like this team even more in the final 4. Virginia still has a top 3 defense in the league and the second best offense. Virginia plays slow but they definitely have learned to be able to speed of the game if need be like we saw vs teams all year like Duke, UNC, NC State and Purdue. I think the injury to Chuma Okeke for Auburn is going to affect them more this game than it did against Kentucky due to Virginia’s great 3 point defense ranking 3rd in the nation which will cause more misses and more rebounds for Virginia. I think defensively the Okeke injury will hurt Auburn even more than offensively leaving some more offensive opportunities and open looks down low for Virginia’s Mamandi Diakite and Deandre Hunter. Auburn only shoots 42.5% on the road and I expect them to come back to earth this game now that they accomplished so much. Virginia shoots 47.7% on the road and hasn’t even played up to their potential this tournament. It’s Championship or bust for the Cavaliers.
Virginia -5 and lean over 131
Texas Tech vs Michigan State -2.5 O/U 132.5
Sparty coming off their biggest victory in a very long time. Duke was typical Duke having over double the free throw attempts over State but missing way too many of them. Kenny Goins hits the 3 point dagger at the end to secure the lead. Texas Tech has been a beast of a team coming into this game with the best defense in the NCAA. They also have a much improved offensive game with Matt Mooney and Jarrett Culver leading the charge. Even though the Red Raiders have a good offense ranking 30th on Kenpom, it still doesn’t match up to States 5th ranked offense and 8th ranked defense. States defense obviously isn’t a slouch holding teams like Duke to 67 points. Sparty also shoots a huge 48% on the road to Techs 44%. Being that the Guards are so good on both teams, I think this game will have to be won inside with State having a slight size and large experience advantage. One must give Izzo an ever so slight nod over Chris Beard being that he has been to 8 final fours and Beard was coaching Division 2 basketball 4 years ago. My raw numbers has this game at a pick-em but when u add in the experience, the coaching and the size, I have to favor State to 3 points. I have this game 67-64. Being that 3 is the most common key number, I am ok with laying the -2.5 and I really like Sparty getting an early start in this game.
Michigan State -2.5 and first to 10 points – First half under 61.5
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We have a great show for you today! The final 4 is set and we picked 3 of the 4 final teams correctly in our bracket a few weeks back on OddsBreakertology! Kiev first goes into the bracket contest and the current top 5 players. Then, Kiev discusses a little bit of NCAA football and some games of the year information. Finally, Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks comes in recap the elite 8 and to break down the NIT, CIT, CBI and Final 4!
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Well it certainly appears to me that both of these teams have exceeded expectations to try and win the NIT here. The Shockers of Wichita State just beat 2 powerhouses in Clemson and Indiana that some people say should have made the NCAA tournament. They are 5-0 ATS the last 5 games and almost took out the Bearcats in their conference tournament. The Lipscomb Bisons on the other hand was a bubble team themselves that just missed the tournament by losing to Liberty in their conference finals and they just took care of a power 5 team in NC State themselves with some end of the game magic. The Bisons play a fast pace ranking 14th in the league at 73 possessions per game in the Atlantic Sun conference. They also average 37th in offense and 61st on defense on Kenpom and are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games. Wichita State on the other hand plays in a tougher American Athletic Conference and has been on a tear during the month of March with their only loss vs Cincinnati in the conference tournament. Lipscomb is the more experienced team and Wichita State is the taller team. One thing I am keying in on here is that Wichita State is a poor shooting team only ranking 314th in effective FG percentage on Kenpom and shoots only 39% on the road. Playing in a neutral court like Madison Square Garden certainly will not help them out there. Lipscomb ranks 18th in the nation in effective FG percentage and shoots 46.6% on the road but has the slightly weaker defense ranking 61st on Kenpom. This should be a close game and great match-up but I think at the end of the day, Lipscomb is more motivated to win this thing. When a power 5 teams misses the NCAA tournament, they in general do not care about the NIT. When a smaller conference team doesn’t make the tournament like Lipscomb, it motivates them to prove everyone wrong. Wichita State wasn’t going to make it anyways so I have to rank their motivation as pretty standard. I have this game Lipscomb winning 79-76 and also like the over.
Is there any question that Michigan State is the best Big 10 team this year? Kenpom sure thinks so. The big 10 was the the deepest conference in the tournament with 8 teams in, but that doesn’t mean they have the best team per say. State might not be the best team in the country according to many power ratings but they have been amazing this year and even more amazing withstanding the injuries to Kyle Ahrens recently and Josh Langford earlier in the season. Sparty is 23-9 ATS as a favorite this year. Let’s look at this match-up. Both teams have massive offenses who average over 45% shooting on the road. The biggest discrepancy here to me is that Michigan State has a top 8 defense while LSU only ranks 49th which may be why they couldn’t cover their small spreads in the first 2 Tournament games. We all know that coach Wade is suspended for LSU and Tony Benford isn’t exactly a great interim. Tom Izzo is probably the best NCAA tournament coach in all of college basketball so you must account for that discrepancy. Even more telling on who should own this match-up is that Michigan State has the better offense ranking 4th on Kenpom to LSU’s 13th. Now my raw numbers have Michigan State winning 82-74. Everything that I said screams Michigan State but what keeps me off of this bet is that LSU performs extremely well as a dog being 6-1-1 ATS this year. I like Michigan State to win this game and if I don’t take the spread, I will probably use it in a ML Parlay
Lean Michigan State -6 or bet small. Use in ML Parlay with UNC
Auburn vs North Carolina -5 O/U 164
This game should be very high scoring. North Carolina has the 8th best offense in the tournament and the 11th best defense according to Kenpom. They shoot 46.4% away from home and out score opponents by 12 points on the road as well. Auburn on the other hand is coming off of a hot performance against Kansas. They jumped the Jayhawks to a 25 point lead at half but yet only won by 15. Auburn shot a crazy 52.5% last game which is way above their road average of 43.2% Looking at other road stats Auburn only outscores their opponents by 1.1 point on the road. In saying all that, Auburn is the second hottest team who hasn’t lost a game since February 23rd at Kentucky. We have to look at the actual match-up here. Auburn seriously relies on the 3 point shot and about exactly half of their shots are 3 pointers. They are hitting many of them but when they face teams that can defend the 3 they could be in a bit of trouble. North Carolina has the formula to beat this team if Auburn isn’t hitting because they are top in the ACC in rebounding the ball. the Tarheels also defend the 3 better than Kansas did allowing 33% from all teams. Auburn has the 6th best offense in the league because of their shooting but they will get killed inside against North Carolina’s big guys like Nassir Little and Cam Johnson. UNC ranks 18th in height while Auburn ranks 206th. Where the rubber meets the road, as long as UNC can stop the 3 they cover this spread easily. As far as the total of 164, I really can’t trust either side of it being that my numbers have UNC winning 88-80 and if Auburn is cold then it will be hard to get to that number.
North Carolina – 5
Virginia Tech vs Duke -7.5 O/U 144.5
Well that was pretty scaring for all the Duke backers this tournament wasn’t it? We have an ACC match-up that is somewhat familiar here. These teams have already met this year in Blacksburg with Duke losing by 5 but we all should know that game was without Zion. Looking at this spread, if Duke lost by 5 points to Va tech, wouldn’t that mean that Zion is worth 8.5 points to the spread? Duke is an amazing team a we all can see with Zion but they are vulnerable shooting the 3 ranking only 329th in 3 point percentage. Duke is also not great at the free throw line shooting a 251st best 68.7% This is a pretty big spread for a team that can’t seem to do those 2 things well. Duke ranks 6th on offense and 7th on Defense via Kenpom but Virginia Tech isn’t too far back ranking 12th and 19th on Kenpom respectively. When Virginia Tech played Duke, they were also without a key player in Justin Robinson who shot over 55% last game against Virginia. He has to account for something right? Lastly, the Hokies really do not have 1 big weakness and are pretty solid all around the ball. This is a large spread but the huge question is, do you really want to get in the way of Duke after almost being ousted from the tournament?
Lean Va Tech +7.5
Houston vs Kentucky -2.5 O/U 134.5
So this game is pretty much dependent on one thing. Will PJ Washington play? We saw Kentucky struggle against Wofford for most of the game until the last few minutes without him. Houston has been great this year and everyone’s sleeper team to make the final 4 but there is one problem. They are not that tall. If Houston is missing their shots, they are in danger of being out-rebounded by a tall team like Kentucky. We seen this happen before against UCF and Cincinnati in the AAC finals. Houston also doesn’t shoot all that great ranking only 104th in FG efficiency. Houston’s defense has been a beast though this year ranking 12th on Kenpom and I think this is the main reason why they outscore their opponents by 15 on the road. Well that and the fact that they are in an easier division. Kentucky when healthy shoots an amazing 46.2% on the road, outscoring their opponents by about 4 points or so. Kentucky has the 11th ranked offense and 9th ranked defense in league but I am just not sure it is enough to cover 2.5 without their best player. If both teams are healthy, I have this game on raw numbers, Kentucky winning 68-65. Without the injury information, I have to most likely pass on having a big side here but seeing that both team splay slower trhan average with Houston at 66.2 possessions per game and Kentucky at 65.7, I have to look to the under in this game. Being that this game may be so tight at the end, I would rather invest in the first half under myself.
A lot can be said about Gonzaga’s amazing season this year. Some say they are the best team on paper. Some say that their schedule and conference was too easy. I think that I am someone more in the middle. The Zags had an amazing year averaging 52.3 % shooting away from home and outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points. Saying all of that doesn’t sound so great when looking at the full slate of competition but they did beat a healthy Duke on a neutral court. Florida State on the other hand had a real man’s schedule ranking 29th on Kenpom beating non-conference opponents like LSU, Purdue and Florida while playing in the ACC. The Seminals average 43.4 shooting percentage on the road outscoring opponents by 4.6 Their only losses have been to Duke and North Carolina since that little hick-up that they had in mid-January. My biggest concern for the Seminals is that Gonzaga is a faster paced team and that is the only profile that Florida State seems to struggle against when you saw them play Duke and UNC. On the other hand, Florida State is very tall and that is something that Gonzaga doesn’t see every day. The Seminols are also very deep team and should be able to rotate guys in like Chris Koumadje and PJ Savoy when their team gets a little gassed or in foul trouble against the Zags which I think will be key. Florida State has a 10 player deep rotation. The only top 25 teams that the Zags have faced is North Carolina, Tennessee and Duke and they only won 1 of those games. Florida State also plays a bit slower which we saw Gonzaga struggle against that profile vs St. Mary’s. I think the height and the stingy Seminals defense should be enough to not only cover this spread but to actually have a shot at winning this game.
Florida State +7.5 and ML
Purdue vs Tennessee -1- O/U 146.5
This should be a great game! Both of these teams are less than 250 miles away from Louisville and you can expect a 50/50 fan split. Purdue in the past has been a bad NCAA tournament team. Matt Painter has taken a lot of crap for it in the past but this year looks more promising. I like Purdue a lot this year. They have an NBA player in Carson Edwards, they have some serious height down low, they rebound the ball very well ranking 18th in offensive rebounds. The big problem that I have against Purdue is that they supposedly shoot bad on the road ranking only 41.2% and outscoring their opponents by only .6 points. Seeing what they have done in the tournament against Villanova and Old Dominion shows differently. Tennessee on the other hand is one of my play-on teams ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and a huge 49.6% road shooting percentage outscoring opponents by 5.8 points. The problem with the Vols is that they have had some hot and cold spells and falter against the good 3 point shooting teams. Their coach Rick barns also has a bad tournament record and seems unable to ever get bast the sweet 16. Tennessee is great at everything offensively but can’t seem to rebound the ball well and they only rank 207th in defending the 3. Purdue relies on the 3 and it makes up about 45% of their shots led by Ryan Cline and Carson Edwards. With Purdue’s height and 3 point shooting ability there are some clear mismatches in this game that if the Boilermakers are on, the Vols could be in for some serious trouble. As long as Purdue can step it up on defense I think that they have a better shot than Tennessee in winning this game.
Lean Purdue ML
Texas Tech vs Michigan -2 O/U 126
Well I know what everyone is thinking here. Under right? These 2 teams rank number 1 and 2 on Kenpom in defensive efficiency. Well the problem with the under is that both of these teams, even though they play very slow, are able to put up some serious points if need be. Michigan has a top 20 offense on Kenpom and Texas Tech hasn’t scored under 70 points since February 9th at Oklahoma. Michigan shoots 44.6% on the road and outscores opponents by 9 points while Texas Tech shoots 43.9% on the road outscoring opponents by 4.9. Michigan has for sure had the harder schedule and the proven coach but don’t sleep on Chris Beard.. The Red Raiders have beaten some very good teams this year and that defense looked unstoppable vs Buffalo. Both of these team have played very well on neutral floors this year. My raw numbers have this game Michigan 64.5 to Texas Tech 64. I think that this game is going to go down to who wants it more and being that Michigan was a final 4 team last year, I have to think that Tech could be more motivated but I am not convinced on a side or total at these numbers.
Lean Texas Tech and lean over
Oregon vs Virginia -8.5 O/U 119
Well this is certainly a low total for a high spread. This game has the most variance on what could happen here. Sharp money is on Oregon and the under. On paper, Oregon was a fade team shooting only 42.1% away from home and only outscoring opponents by 1.6 points in a weak Pac-12. Well they proved a lot of people wrong this year winning their last few games by about 20 points or so. The Ducks are certainly the hottest team in College Basketball and that top recruiting talent has finally come to fruition over the last few weeks. Teams have really seemed to struggle scoring against the Duck’s match-up zone defense. Virginia on the other hand is more experienced and still feels the sting of that first round loss as a 1 seed from last year. The Cavaliers have the largest variance of road points scoring 74.1 on the road and only allowing 57.5. They shoot 47.7% away from home. Raw numbers have Virginia by about 9.5 points but I think you have to look at just the last 3 weeks to cap this game correctly. I think after watching what Oregon’s huge front court did to Wisconsin which is supposedly the number 3 defense in the league tells me that they should be able to put some points up vs Virginia here. I think this large of a spread with the small size of this total warrants a small play but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Virginia come out hot and blow this team out either….
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We have a fantastic show for you today The sweet 16 is here and we talk about every game! First Kiev give’s his take on the NFL rule changes and the Cardinals first pick of the draft. Should it be Kyler Murray? Then, Kiev discusses which NCAA conferences fared well in the tournament. Finally, Tom Kolpien @coverprofit comes into break down all of the NCAA tournament games this weekend!
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Ja-mazing. I am a believer now in this team. I was somewhat skeptical before due to Murray State’s easier schedule but they proved what the numbers have been saying. The Racers shoot an amazing 48.8% on the road as well as outscoring their opponents 79-68. Ja Morant is NBA and I mean serious NBA top 5 pick and these tournaments are meant for stars like him. On the other side of the coin, Florida State isn’t exactly a cake walk being one the tallest and deepest teams in the League. They rank 15 on Kenpom with a top 32 offense and top 10 defense. One small issue is that one of their starting forwards Phil Coffer is a big banged up and may not start this game but the Semi’s depth should outshine that issue. The weakness in Florida State that Murray State can exploit is that they have a bad FG percentage ranking 180th in the nation while Murray State ranks 20th. If Florida State can clean up the boards it won’t be as much of an issue but they still have to get inside and hit shots and it’s not like Murray State is too short by any means. Murray State is a fast team at 70 adjusted possessions per game who can run with anybody while Florida State will try and slow it down a little and play defense. The key factor for me here is that in Hartford Connecticut I do not think that you will find a ton of Florida State fans and most of the neutral crowd will be rooting for the new media toy in Ja Morant. The dog in Florida State’s last 16 tournament games is 15-1 with 11 outright wins courtesy of Chris Fallica. These are the kind of games that favor the new stars.
