Oakland vs Indianapolis -6.5

I have the Raiders as the second worst defense in the NFL behind the Miami Dolphins.   Now they lost Marquell Lee their starting middle linebacker to add to losing Jonathan Abram last week.   Indianapolis is a little banged up as well but I think that they still tower over what the Raiders have for talent, even with a few back-ups.  Handicappers and sportsbooks are still to low on the Colts thinking that the stop from Andrew Luck to Jacoby Brissett is 6 points.   Well I think it is more like 3 or 4.   I have the colts by 8.75 in this spot.   The Raiders are in serious need of better skill positions on offense.   I also am going to make a bold statement here and say that I think even though it’s his second year, Jon Gruden has been out of the NFL too long and things have changed too much for him.   Frank Reich is the better coach here.

Indianapolis -6.5 – 2 star play

Tampa Bay vs LA Rams +10

The Rams are a good/great team as we can see here but this isn’t a great spot for them at all.  One thing we know about the Tampa D is that their weakness is against the pass as we saw against the Giants but is that what the Rams try to do?   The Rams like to play misdirection football and set up the play action through running the ball.  They ranked top  5 in rushing attempts in 2018.   Tampas run defense is great with Sue and Vita Vea leading that defensive line that currently ranks number 1 in stuff rate and 3 in adjusted line yards.   I see the Rams trying to get through this game quickly by running the ball and not running up the score because this is one of those look ahead spots to Thursday vs a huge division foe Seattle.   We know that Jamis Winston throws picks but I really like the QB whisperer Bruce Ahiens helping him through and if any team is built for a garbage touchdown to cover the spread it is guys like Winston to Evans or Goddard or even OJ Howard.  We also have to remember that the Rams do not have a great home field advantage.   This is LA BABY.    Due to the spot and the situation i really like Tampa bay here and a small ML play isn’t a bad idea either.

Tampa Bay +10 – 3 star premium play

Dallas vs New Orleans +2.5

My play here doesn’t completely agree with my power ratings, but I am going to bet against the over-reaction to last week here.   Dallas has had an easier schedule but they are also very healthy here.   Dallas is the second most explosive team in football right now on offense and they have the tools to wear down the Saints in my opinion.   The Saints showed that they have a vulnerable defense.  They rank 30th in yards per play and I know that they played a very hard schedule but what stuck out to me is that they beat Seattle last week while being out-gained by 250 yards.  This is very significant.  Dallas beat this Saints team with Breese in last year and I think they have their number.   The Teddy Bridgewater situation still hasn’t shown its true colors here and I like the number under 3.

Dallas -2.5 – 2 Star Premium Shared

Quick Hitter:  Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh over 43.5 – 2 star premium shared – You  have 2 desperate teams here and I do not either defense both ranking in the bottom 25% of all teams.  I think we will see some points here.

Teaser:   Vikings to +8 and Ravens to -1 – 2 star

Houston vs LA Chargers -3.5 O/U 47.5

If there is one thing that I like about DeShawn Watson, it is that he is really never out of games.   This Texans team has proven that they can play with the big boys when the almost beat the Saints win week 1.   Now they are playing a banged up Chargers team with a bad home field advantage in LA.  My power ratings have these teams pretty close to each other within a half point and when you look at the Chargers injuries on defense, you have to factor in that they will be scored upon.  It’s a little early to talk efficiency but the Texans are a better team in overall DVOA up to this point and they are healthy.  The Texans are 4-0-1 ATS (5.60 ppg) since Sep 30, 2018 as a dog.

Texans +3.5 – 2 star premium shared

Pittsburgh vs San Francisco -7 O/U – 44 points

San Francisco is flying high at 2-0 but what do we really know about this team?   They beat Jamis Winston after he had 3 interceptions with Tampa Bay out-gaining them by 39 yards and they beat a bad Bengals team at home.   Now San Francisco comes home to face a desperate Steelers team that has a decent back-up quarterback who may I add played college with one of their WRs James Washington at Oklahoma State.   I am not a big Mike Tomlin guy but this team will rally when they are down.   I honestly think this change could be a good thing for the Steelers and the fact that they traded for Minka Fitzpatrick shows that they are really trying here.   Power ratings only has San Francisco favored by 4 points but I think they can win this one out.   Gotta bet against 2 over reactions here.

Pittsburg +7 – 3 star premium shared play

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 O/U 46.5

Well the Lions haven’t lost yet.   How about that!?   Thank god for ties huh.  NOT.   Well anyways they are now back on the road to face a half way decent defense finally.   The thing that really stands out to me here is game plan.   Philadelphia is very injured on offense with their wide recievers out and their defensive tackles out.   This tells me that they will run the ball a lot.   It also tells me that Detroit should run the ball here now that they can penetrate the Eagles D line with Kerryon Johnson.   Detroit already has a nice 60 rushing attempts and they know what kind of team that they are.   This total feels a little bit high for this kind of game.   The Eagles need this game to get back on track and the Lions could easily let down a bit here due to the fact that they beat a good Chargers team last week.   Take the under 46.5

Under 46.5 – 2 star premium shared

Teaser alert:   Bengals +6 to +12 and the Packers from -7.5 to -1.5