Members are 3-1 for Round 1 of the Tournament with covers for Belmont, Murray St and Oregon, which was our Best Play of Round 1. Took a loss with Cincinnati but it was a small one as I told Members this was of some concern but had to back Cincy with Iowa have three 20 point losses in the last 3 weeks. Still a nice start.
No. 6 Villanova vs No. 3 Purdue 8:40 pm
Pick: Villanova +4/Normal (bought ½ point)
Purdue is not playing their best ball right now and they do not feel like a team that will be in the Sweet 16.
I probably would have had this closer to a Pick’em situation. I personally would have had Nova as the favorite at -1 or so just looking at numbers and recent play but with the seeding, that can not happen. -3.5 seems like a lot to be backing Purdue right now.
Purdue beat ODU by 13. ODU shot 26% from the field and only attempted 6 free throws. They outrebounded Purdue. Purdue is shooting only 38% on the road. They have 2 losses to Minnesota in their last 4 games on neutrall/road sites. They had narrow road wins over struggling Nebraska and Indiana teams and a 14 point loss at a slightly overrated Maryland team.
Edwards leads the Boilers in scoring but shoots only 38%.
Both of these teams are pretty good defensively.
Nova isn’t ODU. They also are not the powerhouse Nova team from recent years but are winning closer games. They have won 4 straight neutral site game and have won 6 of 7 overall. Villanova shoots 45% on the road and has been a better FT shooting team than Purdue, particularly on the road. Villanova is 5-0 ATS as a dog this season. I like the combination of Booth and Paschall for Villanova and Samuels has scored in double figures in 4 of his last 5 games while notching 7 or more rebounds in 7 straight games.
I like Villanova here. Will be surprised if they do not win this straight up.
I really wanted to fade Cincinnati here after Houston only shot 30% in the American Athletic Conference Championship but this doesn’t really look like the spot. The Bearcats get to play the Hawkeyes practically at home here only 100 miles away while Iowa city is about 550 miles from Columbus. This is kinda like Iowa going to Ohio State for a game. Iowa has been bad on the road. They shoot 44.4% which is ok but they give up 75.5 points per game and only score 74.8. Cinci has been even worse shooting on the road at 40.7% shooting but they do score more points at 66.1 and give up 62.5 away which says good things about their defense. Being that the Bearcats are essentially at home it may be better to look at their home shooting percentage of 45.2%. Both teams have done well on neutral courts this year with Iowa winning 4 out of 5 and Cincinnati winning all 5 games. The thing that worries me most about the Bearcats is what happens if Jarron Cumberland just happens to get into foul trouble. Only 1 other player besides him averages double digit points and that is Keith Williams at 10. From a scoring perspective, the Bearcats are not deep at all. Iowa is one of the best teams this year in drawing fouls. They rank 14th in the nation at ft attempts over FG attempts. I do not like the smell of this game at all and I am going to stay away. I don’t even have a lean.
Lean First Half Under
UC Irvine vs Kansas State -4.5 O/U 119 San Jose, California
The Public is all over UC Irving driving this spread from +5.5 to +4.5. This is a lot more of a home game for UC Irvine even though they are an 8 hour drive away. I don’t see a lot of K-State fans coming to this game unless they knew if Dean Wade was playing. UC Irvine plays in a weak Big West conference but they haven’t lost since January 16th. Their only top 50 win was vs St. Mary’s and they were drudged by double digits against Butler and Utah State. Irvine shoots well on the road at 45% and they outscore their opponents by 8.2 but looking at this schedule it is hard for me get too excited. K state shoots only 42.3 % on the road but they outscore their opponents by 5.5 showing their great D. Now I know that Zion Williamson is the most valuable guy to any team but Kansas State without Dean Wade is Bi-polar. Without Wade, they got stomped by Marquette by 12, lost to Tulsa by 1 and barley beat Southern Miss and George Mason. With Wade they beat teams on the road like Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma and TCU. They also dominated their neutral games winning 5 out of 6. This cap is simple to me here. If Wade Plays I have Kansas State winning 65-56. Without Wade it could be a flat out loss. If Wade is playing I will try and hit the line quickly up to -5.5. If he isn’t I might just stay away
Kansas State -4.5 if Wade is playing no play if he isn’t
Oregon vs Wisconsin -1.5 O/U 117 San Jose, California
Every public bettor and their mom is on Oregon here. Such a trendy little pick. The most common 12-5 upset in the bracket. It’s easy to see why when Oregon finished up the Pac 12 in dominant fashion. It is also easy to see why watching Wisconsin struggle to shoot the ball at the United Center only hitting 35% from the field against Michigan State and 11% from 3. This line went all the way to Oregon -1.5 until some sharper action hit Wisconsin hard bringing it back to 1.5. I am going to guess this closes at a Pickem. If you think you are a fade the public sports bettor then this game is at least a no play for you. Whatever happened to the whole narrative that the Pac 12 sucks? Does anybody still care that Wisconsin’s defense ranks 3rd in the nation? Wisconsin’s offense actually ranks a lot higher than Oregons on Kenpom still even after all of this by about 50 spots. Wisconsin before the Big 10 tournament went 2-1 in Neutral sites only losing to Virginia by 7. The Badgers shoot 43.9 Percent on the road while Oregon shoots 42.1 in a much weaker conference. Wisconsin has some very experienced players on this team including Ethan Happ who plays like no other big man. People think that San Jose California should bring more Oregon fans but they are still over 500 miles away. Wisconsin travels well and and have a big following in California. I have been to many Badger Bars there. Oregon has beaten Washington but they haven’t faced a defense quite like Wisconsin. Oregon spend all of their energy getting to the NCAA tournament. Fading the perception here and I took the Badgers at +1.5 and I like them all the way to -3. This is kind of a system play as well backing a team that shot very bad the last outing.
Wisconsin up to -3
Georgia State vs Houston -11.5 O/U 141.5 Tulsa Oklahoma
This game is pretty interesting. Houston looked terrible in their AAC championship game only shooting 30% and losing to Cincinnati while Georgia State went on a nice run finishing off their competition in the Sun Belt. Now Houston is a much better team when Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks are hitting who both shot less than 25% against Cinci. They would have lost to East Carolina shooting like that. Georgia State is pretty good shooting 44.8 % away but they have been outscored by 1 point per game average on the road as well. The only top 65 teams that they have faced was Liberty and Creighton and they got destroyed both times. Houston shoots 45% on the road having a much harder schedule and has an amazing 15 point varience on the road for Points scored and points allowed. This is second to only Virginia. Georgia State has only the 137th ranked defense in the league. This once again is a system play.
Houston -11.5
Liberty vs Mississippi State -6.5 O/U 134 San Jose, California
Here is another situation where a team looks great on paper yet hasn’t beaten a top 100 team except in conference. Liberty had opportunities against teams like Georgetown and Alabama and they failed the test miserably losing by about 10 points each. The problem here is that Mississippi state on paper to me looks like a fade team and Liberty looks like a team to be on. The Flames play very slow at 4th slowest in the nation draining their opponents while shooting an amazing 48.8 Percent on the road outscoring road opponents by 6.8 points. This team has really improved. The Rebels on the other hand has had some up and down swings all year and and finished the season kinda cold only able to beat down the bad teams and hasn’t had a top 50 win since Feb 2nd. I really like Liberties defense and pace of play here. The early money drove this line down to 6.5 for a reason and I took this at +7. If you can find a 7 its a play and I also lean under
Liberty +7 and lean under 134
UCF vs VCU +1 O/U 126.5 Columbia, South Carolina
This is such an interesting game. 2 Mid Major type basketball conferences facing off. Both teams coming off disappointing losses in their conference tournaments. You have an amazing defense with VCU ranking 7th on Kenpom and you have the tallest guy in basketball with Tacko Fall on Central Florida. VCU plays a little bit faster than average but they shoot poorly at 43% on the road in a weaker division. UCF shoots a nice 46% on the road and outscores much of their opponents but how will UCF play against that pressure defense that VCU throws out there. The edge on offense goes to UCF ranking 90th in effective FG % while VCU ranks 177th. Both teams are really bad a shooting free throws with neither over 70%. I think the best play here is the first half under. Both of these teams will be feeling each other out in the beginning and both teams rank high in defending the 3 point shot.
First half under 58.5
Ohio State vs Iowa State -5.5 O/U 139.5 Tulsa, Oklahoma
Looks like Ohio State is going to Big 12 country to play Iowa State. Thank god Caleb Wesson is back for the Buckeyes. They are a terrible team without him. This is another offense vs Defense Game. Iowa State ranks 9th in offense against Ohio State’s 29th in defense while Ohio State’s offense ranks 75th against Iowa State’s 59th defense. I want to fade Ohio State here because they only shoot 39% on the road but Iowa State they have been pretty bad over the last month or so. Ohio State was bad but I liked the way that they played against Indiana and only losing to Michigan State by 7 in the Big 10 tournament.
Minnesota vs Louisville -5 O/U 135
Des Moines Iowa
Will Richard Pitino avenge his father??? Well I think that is pretty silly because he has stated that he is his own man many times. This spot seems like a home court advantage for the Gophers being only 240 miles away down I-35. You would hope so anyways because Minnesota is bad on the road shooting only 40.7% and only scoring 63.6 points per game while giving up 68.9. That’s the big 10 for ya. If they get that home feeling, the Gophers average a 46.6 FG % and 78 points per game led by Jordan Murphy and Amir Curry. Louisville on the other hand is over twice as far away and scores 72.7 PPG on the road and gives up 69.7. This Cardinals team has shown greatness earlier in the season but sometimes they just seem to choke the game away like vs Florida State and Duke. Louisville has the better offense and defense but they have been ice cold the last month or so losing most of their games in the ACC while Minnesota had a very nice run the last few weeks beating Purdue twice, Penn State and Northwestern. My raw numbers has Louisville winning by 4.5 if this was truly a neutral spot. If the Gophers can play like they do at home in front of what should be a gopher crowd then this spread is a bit too much.
Lean Minnesota +5
Yale vs LSU -7 O/U 159.5
Jacksonville Florida
Welp, coach Will Wade is still suspended. What are the poor Tigers ever going to do? They probably are still pouting about it right now. Wooooo is me. Wooo is me. This has been the best basketball season they have had for as long as I can remember and now without their coach, they will throw it all away. WRRRRRRROOOOOOOONG. This is the perfect spot for me to buy LSU at a discount. This is a top team who beat not only Kentucky, but Tennessee and Auburn as well. LSU seemed to keep getting better as the year progressed and has a top 10 offense with a half way decent defense. Yale is an Ivy league school who over achieved yet has some bad games losing to Columbia and Harvard. When they played Duke they lost by 33 points. Now LSU ain’t no Duke but they are not nearly as far off as Yale is from them. LSU is going to be looking for bounce back big after that early SEC tournament exit as a 1 seed. I like the price.
LSU -7
New Mexico State vs Auburn -6.5 O/U 133.5
Salt Lake City UT
This line opened up at 8 and is now down to Auburn -6.5 59% of the tickets are on New Mexico State but so is 82% of the money. Not sure really why this is an early sharp side but if you look at Kenpom, both are top 50 teams and Auburn is in a let down spot the way that they celebrated their SEC Championship. Both teams coming into the tournament are RED HOT. Auburn hasn’t been the best road team shooting 41.5% and scoring 73.5 points while giving up 72.4, but they proved on the neutral court that they can score in the SEC Championship. New Mexico Stats has been on a tear and hasn’t lost since January 3rd although their schedule has been easy. They shoot a nice 46.4 points on the road and score 77.3 while only giving up 66.3. New Mexico State’s only top 100 wins are number 96 on Kenpom Utah Valley and they lost pretty bad to St Mary’s but kept up with Kansas early on only losing by 3. My numbers have this game 77-70.5 Auburn so unfortunately it isn’t a play at this number. I was hoping to get a better number and will wait it out.
Lean NM State +6.5
Murray State vs Marquette -4.5 O/U 149
Hartford, Connecticut
The big question that everyone is asking here is How is Marcus Howard’s wrist? Well it was fine 2 games ago vs St Johns where he shot over 50% from the field. He only went 1-15 vs Seton Hall last game and was part of the reason that his team lost. Marquette has had a bad finish to the year while Murray State hasn’t lost since January although they certainly got lucky in the Ohio Valley tournament vs Jacksonville State with that nasty flagrant foul that put them over the top at the end. Marquette is a great shooting team at 46.5% on the road outscoring opponents by 2. They had a very hard schedule this year. Murray State led by future NBA prospect Ja Morant shoots 48.8% on the road and outscoring opponents by over 10! The biggest issue for me here is that Murray State does not have any top 100 wins until they beat Belmont in the tournament. Earlier in the year Belmont beat them by 13 points. Ja Morant averages 24 points per game which is double over their second best player Shaq Buchanan at 13. If Marquette wants to beat this team the formula is simple. Stop Ja Morant. Maybe double team him and pack the paint. I have this game around 4 points for the raw numbers but I think coach Woj should know enough to utilize his full team to beat Murray State.
Lean Marquette -4.5
St Mary’s vs Villanova -5 O/U 130.5
Hartford Connecticut
How convenient for the Wildcats to get to play a west coast team only 200 miles away from home. St Mary’s is about 2,994 miles away but that doesn’t mean a passionate fan base will not travel. The line here suggests very much that Villanova is playing at home. Both teams are within 5 spots from each other on Kenpom and both teams are coming in hot winning their conference tournaments. St Mary’s has only lost to Gonzaga since January and took care of them in their tournament while Villanova has squeaked 2 close games to win the Big East. Villanova is a good road team shooting 44.8% and scoring 74.2 points to 69.1. Nice 5 point varience. St Mary’s isn’t quite as good shooting 43.5% on the road in a bad conference only scoring 66.9 and allowing 64.7. Both of these teams are equally tall and we know that Nova lives and dies by the 3 but looking at the side by side numbers, the only thing that Saint Marys has that could hurt Nova is that they are a top 44 team in 3 point defense. Being in the West Coast Conference once again makes it hard to tell how accurate that is. One nice betting angle that Sticks out to me is that Villanova really starts games slow and they do not turn it up until the second half. St Marys has really picked up their defense lately allowing only 53 points over their last 8 games. St Marys is 4-1 to the under their last 5 games. St Mary’s is the 7th slowest team in the nation at 62.6 possessions per game while Villanova is the 20th slowest out of 353 teams at 63.6. As long as those 3s are not hitting at a crazy percentage, I have to really like the under here.
Under 130.5
Old Dominion vs Purdue -13 O/U 126
Hartford Connecticut
Conference USA has a bunch of teams in the 100 ranges on Kenpom while we already know about the big 10. Old Dominion plays slow and thrives off of their defense being top 48 on Kenpom and ranking 325 in pace at 64.3 plays per game. The problem is that their offense isn’t even in the top 200. Old Dominion shoots a terrible 39.4% on the road and only outscores their opponent by 1.4 points away. Purdue isn’t so much better on the road at 41.2% shooting and outscoring their opponent by only .6. Purdue shoots a lot of 3s and being a tall team they are very good at rebounding the ball. Old dominion on the other hand has good defense ranking in the top 14 in the nation at effective defensive FG percentage which helped them beat teams like Syracuse and VCU. Now this total as been pushed down a bit from 129 to 126 and I think it may have been overbought a little. Purdue should be a motivated team here due to their early Big 10 Tournament exit. I think this spread is about right but if this total keeps going down I will be a buyer on the over. I have this game Purdue 72-58
Lean over 126
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We have a jammed packed show for you today! Kyle hunter @kylehunterpicks is our guest today! Kyle is 115 – 79 in College Basketball plays for the year!!! We first get into any teams that were snubbed or miss-seeded by the committee in the bracket. Next we discuss which basketball courts seems to favor the over or the under for this tournament for betting college basketball totals. Then we get into home court advantages by geography for some of these teams. Finally, we break down a bunch of these games and get into some sides and leans for the first 2 days of this tournament!
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Kiev Starts out by going over some of the key season stats that he likes to look at for filling out a bracket during tournament play. We then talk about our FREE NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET for listeners and subscribers! Then we talk about an amazing new way to bet on teams WITHOUT using spreads called fanvestwageringexchange.com. Fanvest is the stockmarket of all sports! Next Kiev goes over his Bracket and some upsets that most people would not pick. Kiev finally then gives out some FREE PICKS and leans for the play-in games!
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We all know Belmont likes to run and they shoot very well at 47.8% away and scoring 85.5 points per game on the road while only giving up 75.4 on the road which is a nice varience. Now these are great numbers, but the only problem with them is that their best wins were against Lipscomb and Murray State. Temple is lucky to make the tournament as an at large ranking 76th on Kenpom but they only shoot 43.3 % on the road at 72.8 points per game giving up 71.8 but they had a harder road in the American Athletic Conference. What I like about Temple is that they are pretty tall and can guard well down low which is where Belmont seems to score a lot of their points. Belmont runs and likes to speed up the pace but Temple has done pretty well against those teams like Memphis and Tulsa. They also have played very well against another high powered offense in Houston winning one game and only losing the other by 7.
Lean Temple +3.5 and the over
Fairleigh Dickonson vs Prairieview A&M +2 O/U 149
These 2 teams were made for each other. Fairleigh plays offense well and Prairie plays a smidge of defense. Prairie View defends the 3 well but they haven’t played teams that shoot it well in the worst conference in basketball. Both teams give up more points on the road than they score. PV shoots 43.4% on the road and FD shoots 45.1%.
Lean FD -2 and lean under 149
Wednesday 3/20
NC Central vs N Dakota State -5.5 O/U 135
Another 2 teams made for each other. Both of them were bad on the shooting about 43.5 percent and allowing about 5.5 more points then they score. NC Central is by far the worst team in the tournament ranking 303rd on Kenpom while North Dakota State ranks an honest 199th. One thing that sticks out to me here is that North Dakota State has played a much harder schedule than NC Central. The Eagles haven’t even beaten a top 260 team. I don’t remember seeing a team this bad making the tournament. One thing NC Central has done is slow the pace down and play a little better D. The under is 5-0 their last 5 games. I think due to harder strength of schedule here and the I can see North Dakota State winning this game by a little more than 5.5
Lean ND State -5.5 and under 135
Arizona State vs St Johns +1 O/U 153
Man what is up with the Pac 12. ASU beat very tough Kansas, Mississippi State and Utah State teams early in the year only to fade out in Pac 12 play. They lost some bad ones to USC and Washington State at home. They certainly almost beat Oregon though in the Pac 12 tournament going to OT and I think that says something. St Johns on the other hand is lucky to be in with their best non-conference wins against VCU and Rutgers. The red storm gives about about 2.5 more points per game on the road than they score. ASU gives up about as much points as they score on the road at 74 points per game. Both of these teams play at a fast pace at 70.5 plays per game. The one thing that sticks out to me the most here is that ASU did great on Neutral floors this year beating Mississippi State and Utah State. I also like how ASU has been on a tear lately and only losing to Oregon since Feburary 14th going 6-8. Chris Mullin is a good coach but I have to go with Bobby Hurley here in this particular spot to try and save face for the Pac 12.
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Kiev Starts out by going over some of the key season stats that he likes to look at for filling out a bracket during tournament play. We then talk about our FREE NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET for listeners and subscribers! Then we talk about an amazing new way to bet on teams WITHOUT using spreads called fanvestwageringexchange.com. Fanvest is the stockmarket of all sports! Next Kiev goes over his Bracket and some upsets that most people would not pick. Kiev finally then gives out some FREE PICKS and leans for the play-in games!
On Selection Sunday, sign up for free on fanvestwageringexchange.com to instantly receive 1000 “Fanbucks” to build the portfolio of teams you think will advance.
FREE BRACKET CHALLENGE LINK! $250 for first place, $150 for second, $50 for 3rd! Just follow the directions and retweet the podcast! Join my CBS Sports bracket group! #brackets http://theoddsbreakers.mayhem.cbssports.com/e/5c0ede013637fde946c4b1ffd8332fb423a182490c525b69357ffc328a15ff00?
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
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For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
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Saint Patrick’s day! The Big 10 Championship is here and both of these teams are finally healthy! (For the most part) Michigan State has won the last 2 games and Michigan is looking for revenge and another Big 10 Title! Looking at these 2 teams, they are pretty similar in power rating both being top 8 in the nation. Kenpom has these teams Michigan State 4 and Michigan 5. The line from a power ratings perspective should be Sparty -1 but when you look at the previous meetings, Michigan State has seemed to own this team. Michigan has been on a tear lately destroying some very poor big 10 teams and had a very easy road to the championship game due to missing Purdue. Michigan State on the other hand didn’t have it so bad either shutting down a Wisconsin team to 35% shooting. Michigan State has the best offense in the big 10 but they also have the 3rd best defense. Michigan has the 4th best offense in the big 10 and the 2nd best defense. I think that due to the fact that both of these teams had blown out so many other big 10 teams this year is the reason that their pace numbers are so low at 66 plays per game for State and 65 for the Wolverines. I expect more of a shootout mentality here especially at the end of this game. The previous games went to 138 and 147. Michigan State is hungrier due to not winning it last year and I think they once again will create match-up problems for Michigan. There is this trend that 58% of championship games hit the under. Now this is true but I think it has been way over-steamed in my opinion. This line opened up at 135 and its now down to 130.5. Going to fade that trend and see what happens I see lots of fouls and I have this game Michigan State winning 70-66. Gotta go green on St Patty’s day.
