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Wichita St vs Cincinnati

College Basketball

Wichita St vs Cincinnati 5:00 pm

Pick: Wich +7/Lean (Bought ½ point)

Bought the ½ point.  Opened at 5.5 and got up to 6.5 and was at 7 at one book but money coming in on Wichita, rightfully so I feel, has brought this back to 6 or 6.5.

Cincinnati covered this in both meetings this season

7 points feels like a lot of points to lay on Cincinnati for me right now.  Cincinnati was 6-8 ATS on the road this season. They are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 overall.  They are a week off of a 16 point home loss to a really good Houston team and a 3 point road loss at UCF before that.  Cincinnati shot only 34% in their 10 point home win over Wich St, however, the Shockers shot just under 27% in that game and still only lost by 10 on the road.  

Last 5 game numbers give edge to Wichita St  4 of those games for Wichita St were road/neutral site games. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YBhzG4EgLEy5fkAWRbZ_Hh2v6UvNhF5cGCdMSGVfBBs/edit?usp=sharing

NCAA March 16 Free Pick

Seton Hall vs Villanova – 4 O/U 135

Well here we are in the Big East finals and my dark horse Xavier choked away their lead. Now we have a pretty good match-up here with a Seton Hall team that has been on fire lately and a Nova team with some young kids that finally have some more experience on their backs. Looking at the coaches you have to favor Jay Write here because his record and basketball style really speaks for itself. I must say that I am pretty impressed lately with Kevin Willard and how he fired this team up. The Pirates have been a very up and down team this year and if you profited off of them you must have caught them while they were hot. One thing that is for sure is that Seton Hall is very hot right now winning their last 4 games in a row and Myles Powell went off last night scoring 18 second half points. Seton hall is vulnerable to turning the ball over and hitting free throws but they play pretty fast at 70.3 possessions per game. Villanova is vulnerable to rebounding the ball but they certainly know how to shoot the 3 and when they are hot they can go on big runs. Nova plays slow but latly I am not sure if I want to get in front of either of these teams but I am certainly looking at the total here. 2 Hungry teams are playing each other for the Big East Championship and I can definitely see some points being scored here. Due to the poor over ATS records with these teams, the under has been SLAMMED here. I think it has been over-bought. Kenpom has this game to 140 with Nova by 4. Bart Torvik has it Nova by 3 going to 139. My numbers say higher and I have Nova winning 77-70 in a faster paced championship game. I tend to look at how teams shoot away when looking at these totals and Nova shoots at a higher percentage on the road at 45% than they do at home at 43%. Seton Hall shoots 44% at home and on the road. These teams by now are pretty acquainted with Madison Square Garden’s poor backdrops by now. The last time these teams played the total went to 144. Nova plays like the champions that they are and wins this game and covers the spread at the end.

Over 135 big and Nova -4 small

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Podcast 15 – 19 – Wagering The Weekend – NFL News – Free Bracket Challenge for $! College Basketball Plays – UFC Fight Night 147 – Sports Betting

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March Madness is Rolling and so are we! 30-24 ATS since March 1st! 76% during March Madness 2018! We first talk a little about more NFL news with the Giants and Browns headlining the conversation. We next intrduce our FREE NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET for listeners and subscribers! Then we talk about an amazing new way to bet on teams WITHOUT using spreads called fanvestwageringexchange.com. Fanvest is the stockmarket of all sports! Kiev then gives out some FREE PICKS for Friday’s Games! Finally, Cub Fan Danny come in to break down some UFC Fight Night 147 for Saturday!

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March 14, 2019 – NHL Slate with JKSportsBets

Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned

Tuesday was not great. We put a lot of eggs in one basket – and that basket fell over. In the future, we’ll likely be trying to spread it out a bit more.

Last night we released one in-game play that, in all honesty, should have hit. But it didn’t. Such is life!

  • Chicago continues to hit the OVER. But, I’m telling you, the team is playing differently. The D is playing differently. Don’t be surprised if they regress back towards a 50/50 in the O/U for the rest of the year.
  • New Jersey beat up on Edmonton a night after being beat up on by Calgary in the third. Unfortunately, we were on the wrong end of that one. The Devils are one of the more interesting “bad teams” in the league at the moment.

Today’s Slate

Pittsburgh Penguins @ Buffalo Sabres – The Pens go to frosty upstate New York to battle the Sabres tonight. This matchup is 3-1-1 to the OVER in the last five meetings between the two. Casey DeSmith is expected to start for Pittsburgh, and he has given up 19 goals in his last four starts. Prior to these previous two games, Buffalo had hit seven goals or more in seven straight games. This should be action packed in Buffalo. Take the OVER.

Buffalo/Pittsburgh OVER 6.5 (+105) 2units

St. Louis Blues @ Ottawa Senators – St. Louis is one of the best road teams in the league. I mentioned in a previous newsletter that we should be on the lookout for spots they’re undervalued because they’re on the road. It may not seem like it, but this one of those spots. Playing a very weak Sens team, St. Louis can feel the pressure of the Stars two points back. The Blues post an 19-11-5 road record, compared to the Sens, who are just 14-16-4 at home. Ottawa is only 5-7-1 against the Central, and the Blues are an amazing 9-3 against one of the most competitive divisions in the league. Nilsson has not been exceptional for Ottawa, to say the least, and he draws the start here. Just like a pick below, the ML is too juiced so get the other two instead. 165 is a little more than I like to lay with a road team, but this spot is too good.

St. Louis -1.5 (+103) 2units
St. Louis 3-Way ML (-165) 3units

Anaheim Ducks @ Arizona Coyotes – Arizona returns home after going 1-1 on their brief road trip. They return to Gila River Arena where, before the trip, they went 6-1 on their longest homestand of the season. Their only loss? To the Ducks. They’re looking for revenge and badly need to continue their winning ways. Anaheim is 2-9 in their last 11 on the road, and look pretty pitiful, especially during their home loss to the Kings the other night. Arizona plays a lot of one goal games, so beware of the spread and the three-way, but pound the ML.

Arizona ML (-140) 3units

Florida Panthers @ San Jose Sharks – The Panthers go into San Jose to face the second-best home team in the league. The Sharks have won six in a row, and Florida has lost their last four road games. Rookie Sam Monetmbeault is expected to start for the Panthers. He has been great in his last two starts after allowing four goals in his first career NHL start. But all three games were at home. This is his first career road start, and boy did he get a tough draw. SAP Center is an incredibly difficult place for a visiting team to play. Florida has lost all five road games against the Pacific division this year, including bad losses in Arizona, Edmonton, and a terrible 5-1 loss at Rogers Arena against the Canucks. Don’t expect anything different. Just like the Blues, the ML is too juiced, so look three-way and spread.

San Jose -1.5 (+130) 2units
San Jose 3-Way ML (-140) 3units

Bonus Pick: Take Tampa Bay and Nashville ML parlay for 1unit at -107.

The in-game plays are starting to show profitability, so get at it on twitter (@jksportsbets). Looking forward to the slate tonight!

Podcast is out!

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March 12, 2019 – NHL Slate with JKSportsBets

Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned

After a rocky start to March we’re gaining some steam, going 10-3 in our last 13 (including in-game plays on Twitter) for a profit of over 20units. After a 4-2 day yesterday where we profited over 8units, we’re looking for more tonight!

  • Chicago beat the Coyotes 7-1 last night. I suppose the ‘Hawks realized that Arizona wouldn’t get them to hit that OVER mark, so they did it themselves.
    • On that note, I’ve been interested in Arizona this year because I’ve felt that they’re not nearly as good as their record indicates. Look for opportunities where they’re overvalued.
  • Toronto continues to under impress, losing 6-2 at home to Tampa. Yes, the Lightning are great, but others have shown to be able to get under their skin, especially at home. To be a contender, you have to beat Tampa Bay. The Leafs never looked like they were in that game.

Today’s Slate

Dallas Stars @ Buffalo Sabres – Yes, Buffalo is an over team. They have a 37-28-3 record this season in O/U. But the real shocker is on the visitors. Dallas is 7-22-5 to the UNDER this year on the road. That means they win the under just shy of 65% of the time. To put that in perspective, it’s nearly the exact same percentage that the ‘Hawks have hit the over this year. Bishop is in goal for the Stars tonight, and he’s only given up one goal in his last three starts combined. Meanwhile, for the Sabres, Carter Hutton is expected to start, and he has a nearly one goal per game better GAA at home than on the road. We have to take the UNDER here.

Buffalo/Dallas UNDER 5.5 (-125) 3units

Boston Bruins @ Columbus Blue Jackets – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or in our case, if it keeps hitting, don’t stop flooding it. I may well be on the “Fade Columbus” train for the rest of the year. But the numbers back the theory. Tonight, the Bruins come into Columbus, and while the Bruins haven’t been the best road team (four wins above .500), Columbus has the third-worst home record in the Eastern Conference, behind only Detroit and Ottawa. Ouch. Remember a play last night with a team that was four games plus .500 on the road? The Jackets lost last night in New York (good for us) and while the score seemed close, the game was not. One of the more interesting aspects of this game is that, during this season, when Columbus has lost the night before and play again the following night they have lost three in a row of that back leg and are 1-4 on the season. Korpisalo is starting for Columbus, and there are some interesting facts behind his numbers. He has lost his last five games, posts his worst SV and GAA against the Atlantic Division as any division, and posts worse stats at home than on the road (we’ve exploited this before). And the B’s, well, they fell to Pittsburgh in a battle on Sunday to end a six game winning streak. This is the first meeting between these teams this year, and they’re set to meet three times in the final 15 games. Boston has been red hot, and on two days rest against a tired and weakened Blue Jackets team, let’s take the traditional trifecta tonight, with a slight modification in unit allotment.

Boston -1.5 (+245) 2units
Boston 3-Way ML (+145) 3units
Boston ML (-105) 3units

New Jersey Devils @ Calgary Flames – In a battle of (one of the) worst versus (one of the) best, where the best gets to play at home, it makes sense to see a near 400 ML on the Flames as favorites. We usually stay far away from games where the -1.5 sits with juice, but the O/U looks good here. The Devils are an UNDER team, and while Calgary was an over team for a while, they have gone under in two of the last three and are 6-2-1 to the under in their last nine. Meanwhile, New Jersey is 5-1-1 in their seven to the under. Meanwhile, when the total is at exactly six, New Jersey is 6-2-1 to the under in the last nine (same as above with the Flames) and Calgary is 3-1-1 to the under in their last five. MacKenzie Blackwood is expected to Start for the Devils, and the 22-year old has posted very respectable numbers in his limited starts this year, with a .932 SV and 2.23 GAA. Let’s take the UNDER here.

Calgary/New Jersey UNDER 6 (+107) 3units

That’s all I got for now. I feel confident tonight, and there should be some interesting in-game situations so make sure you follow on twitter (@jksportsbets), as I often release in-game plays that have shown to be very profitable. Let’s get at it!

Podcast 14 – 19 – Wagering The Week with Dan Everett – College Basketball Conference Tournament -Sports Betting

Sports Betting
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Rolling right into March Madness and it is now time to break down these conference tournaments! We first talk a little about some NFL news and then get into the final Big 10 Rankings.  Kiev then gets into how he likes to bet the conference tournaments and what he looks for in teams. We then talk about our conference tournament plays and values. Finally Dan Everett @dedgesportpicks comes in to break down the Big East and more!

NCAA conference tournaments: The MAC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, ACC, Big East, AAC, and A10.

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For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377

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NCAA Conference Tournament Futures

What I look for when betting tournament teams:

Great defense because it travels.

Shooting percentage away from home.

ATS away from home.

Did you finish the season well? Is the team hot or not? Is there a reason why you are not and you have value?

More value on Bubble teams to win (not necessarily against the spread) .

Teams with great NBA type players.

The Big East

To me the Big east is the most up in the air conference.   Marquette and Nova are the only for sure teams in the NCAA tournament while Seton Hall and Creighton might have some slight work to do.    The problem with Marquette and Nova is that they have really come down to earth and have had a terrible finish to their season losing most of their games the last 3 week.    Looking at the odds, I think this may be the most wide open tournament as far as what could happen.   Due to the even teams, I think the value is on the Hottest team with the best odds which is Xavier at+ 900 or 9-1.   Now you can argue that a money line rollover is better than 9-1 but that is ONLY if they play both Nova and Marquette on the bottom.   At that case a money line rollover is worth about 15-1.  If Nova loses to Providence or Butler than the ML rollover is worth a MAX 9-1 if they play Marquette at the championship level and even less if not.   Another option that I may employ is doing a Money Line rollover for Marquette on the bottom while playing Xavier 9-1 on top.

Xavier 9-1 and Marquette ML rollover

The American Athletic Conference

Houston is going to win this but definitely not worth the +125.   The team that I really do not like is Cincinnati at +250.   They have not finished well and are in the big dance anyways.   If you want to get cute, you could also bet Temple at +725 or Wichita State at +1700 being that they won’t have to play Houston until that final game but if you do this you may have to go harder on the ML rollover with Houston.   I would favor the Wichita State line personally, but they have a tough road.

Houston ML rollover and small on Wichita State

ACC Tournament

Not enough info here for me.   North Carolina is probably my favorite team here but certainly not at +350.   If Zion is in they will be dogs against Duke and also against Virginia at the end meaning you could get more like an 9.5-1 value on the ML rollover and if Zion is out and Duke is more of a pickem game then you can still get about 5-1 worst case.   Duke is now also without Marquis Bolden so there is now even more problems there.   Bolden was their Center and very important to stop the inside game.   Not a ton of room to hedge that +350 either against Virginia.   Virginia +125 makes no sense when Duke is still the favorite to win the  NCAA championship?   What does that tell you?  Does duke not care about the ACC tournament?   Do the odds makers think the officials will favor Duke again like in 2015?   Who knows but the only potential play is UNC ML rollover or pass.

UNC ML Rollover

The Pac 12 Tournament

Here is a league that has been a huge disappointment in basketball and really all major sports the last few years.    The odds to win this ugly ass tournament are absolutely terrible.   You have the conference’s top team in Washington that everyone had penciled in as an at large a few weeks back is now a bubble team with no guarantees of tournament birth.  The Pac 12 may only have 1 team in the big dance!!!    The motivation should be high for all teams here but the odds do not match up.   Colorado may be the hottest team but they are only a 5 seed meaning they have to start on Wednesday.    The Buffalos are also in the same side of the bracket as Washington and they only have 6-1 odds to win it all.    Garbage.    The second hottest team is Oregon winning their last 4 games in a row and even though they are away from Washington in this bracket, they still only have +300 or 3-1 to win this thing and they also start on Wednesday.   The only semblance of value that I can find is Utah being at 12-1 here because the are the 4 seed who would start Thursday and they finished off the season well at home.   Utah also has the best away ATS record at 7-4 but can you really trust this team who has the worst D in the pac 12?   The problem is that they will not be favored in any of their games so they could get 15-1 or 18-1 on a ML rollover.   This tournament looks ugly to me and I think if you want to do anything, it would be Washington ML rollover or nothing.   Maybe the fact that Washington is now a bubble team could help motivate them.

Washington ML rollover and maybe a smaller ML rollover on Utah with a spread bet to cover it.

The Big 12 Tournament

Ok, so this conference is an absolute mess.  You have a clear favorite in Texas Tech at +130.  I agree with the fact that they should be favorites but I do not agree with the line.   Kansas State is next at +350 but how confident can you be with that number?   The big problem with the Big 12 is that you have 4 bubble teams that need these wins much more than the 2 favorites.   Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor and Texas all need runs here which makes them very dangerous.   We also have to look at the best offense in this division in Iowa state as only a 5 seed because they have a decent shot at winning it.   The biggest question to me is if Kansas is going to show up?   Will not winning the regular season for the first time in 14 years motivate this team?    I think there is way to many unpredictable outcomes here and the best thing to do is stay away. Maybe bet the bubble teams and or Kansas.

Stay Away  

The SEC Tournament

It’s pretty crazy seeing everything that happened to LSU with Will Wade being suspended indefinitely.  They are the top seed in this tournament and have by far the easiest bracket.   It is also weird seeing South Carolina getting the 4 seed and the double bye over Auburn.   I do not think even with coach Franks that the gamecocks can make it past this Auburn team without AJ Lawson.    The bottom of this bracket is absolutely brutal with Mississippi State, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky.  You have 2 of the best teams there with the 5th best in Miss State and probably the 7th best team with Ole Miss.   The top of the bracket you have coach-less LSU who is the 3rd best team, Auburn who is the 4th best and I would say Florida is the 6th best and that is where you may find some value.   Don’t get me wrong because I think Kentucky wins this thing as long as Reid Travis is playing but Florida definitely has the easiest rout with the best odds.   Florida is 15-1 to win this thing but you can get up to 28-1 as long as they Play LSU after Arkansas (which they would have to play anyways) Auburn instead of SC, and Kentucky or Tennessee in the finals.   Florida has the best away ATS in the SEC and they have already beaten LSU on the road.    I am not crazy about betting this bracket but I would definitely like a ML rollover on Florida  and possibly Kentucky and hope that they meet in the Finals.

ML Rollover on Florida small and large on Kentucky if Travis is back.    If Travis not back then Tennessee isn’t the worst ML rollover play due to their high away shooting percentage.

The Atlantic 10 Tournament

So this division is interesting because VCU is for sure in due to their Texas and Temple non-conference wins.   Whenever a smaller conference has an at-large that is in for sure, I love to look at the other teams fighting their asses off for tournament birth plus you will not get much value for VCU at-140 .   The next obvious one to me is the 2nd seed Davidson at +400.   Now it is either going to be them or Dayton at +375 to make the championship game.   Dayton beat Davidson this year at their house but Davidson has the better conference record.   Dayton has had the overall harder schedule and is ranked higher on Kenpom so that is why you see their odds a little bit better to win, but I like that Davidson is taller than Dayton and their coach Bob McKillop has more experience here.   The other play that I have is a longer shot on the top of the bracket in Rhode Island.   I like the fact that they beat VCU already once this year and love how they finished their season winning their last 4 games.   I also love their point guard Jeff Dowtin and I think he has the capability of taking over games.   Rhode Island can also choke and lose to some bad teams but I really like the fact that VCU has less to play for here and if Rhode Island wins that game, then they play a St Bonaventure team that they had already beaten once this year.   30-1 odds looks pretty tasty to me.

Rhode Island 30-1 and Davidson 4-1

The Big 10 Tournament

Well this is a very interesting bracket this year.   There is a definite separation between the best 2 teams over the rest but I also think that there are 2 or 3 teams here that can beat anyone when on or lose to anybody when off.   Those teams are Wisconsin, Iowa and Indiana.   Indiana at 60-1 and Iowa at 60 to 1 definitely have the most value in this bracket at those huge numbers.   If I was going to make a case for Indiana, I can easily say they are on the same side as Michigan State whom they defeated twice and Wisconsin whom they only played once and defeated at home in overtime.  The problem with me on this is that I think that Indiana happened to play State and Sconnie when they were at their coldest while Indiana was pretty much playing for their lives.   I think you are counting your blessings if you think Izzo will lose to a team like Indiana 3 times in a row.   Having said that I really do not have a problem with you betting those huge 60-1 odds for the reasons that I previously stated as well as the fact that Indiana is definitely the hottest team in the big 10.   Iowa on the other hand at 60-1 is on the harder side of the bracket being that they would have to beat number 3 Michigan and number 2 Purdue in order to just get to the championship game but what I like about Iowa is that they have the 3rd best offense in the big 10 and have proven that they can hit clutch shots with Bohannon.   I also like the fact that they beat Michigan once this year and the Wolverines are a little injured with Matthews being questionable.   Now if Minnesota can play anything like they did at home vs Purdue a week ago, then there is a small shot that Iowas road can get a little easier and then you can most likely hedge after the Michigan game.   To be completely honest this scenario is still kind of a long shot so I think that taking a money line rollover with Wisconsin or Michigan State at the top of the bracket for twice the money that you put on Iowa would make some sense to help hedge out of that one.   I am personally going to pick of course play Wisconsin because you can make more money with it should they beat Maryland and Michigan State.   I also don’t have a problem playing on the 4th best defense in all of the nation on Kenpom and the 1st best defense in the big 10.   I also know that Wisconsin last year played State very tough and they may be able to finally get one past them.   I do not have a problem if you play State instead but I am looking for upside and bang for my buck and who knows, maybe Michigan State does drop that first game to the Hoosiers. 😊

Iowa 60-1  (or Indiana 60-1)

Wisconsin ML Rollover (or Michigan State)

The MAC Tournament

How is Buffalo only -150 when Gonzaga is -850. The separation between them and the second best team in Toledo is larger than Gonzaga to St Marys. Either way I still think it is better to do a ML rollover on Buffalo here and take it all the way home.

Buffalo ML rollover

March 11, 2019 – NHL Slate with JKSportsBets

Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned

Well, the Knights got outplayed yesterday. They tied it up at three early in the second but then lost their steam. Interestingly enough, my two potential plays on totals yesterday both would have missed. At least we’re able to show restraint when needed!

  • Florida just annihilated the Wings. Look got potential future plays against Detroit.
  • Yesterday was a great day of hockey between very evenly matched teams. Today looks similar, but there are a couple edges to exploit.

Today’s Slate

Columbus Blue Jackets @ New York Islanders – If there’s one team I’m not comfortable investing in right now it’s the Blue Jackets. They have been all over the place. New York, meanwhile, is coming off a home loss to Philadelphia and should be looking for redemption. Interestingly enough, the Isles are 8-3 in their last eleven with exactly two days rest. That seems to be the key for them. Tonight, I’m fading the Jackets and putting faith in an Isles team at home that needs a win to stay in the thick of the playoff race. I’m just not sure Columbus is going to start clicking in time to make the postseason. Last time out between these two the Jackets lost at home to New York 3-0. Look for something similar tonight. The total has dropped to 5.5, so now is the time to jump if you want the OVER. We’re taking one unit there because both teams have shown propensity to score early and often at times. I think a 4-2/4-3 win by New York is quite possible here.

New York Islanders -1.5 (+235) 1unit
New York Islanders ML (-106) 3units
Columbus/New York Islander OVER 5.5 (-105) 1unit

San Jose Sharks @ Minnesota Wild – Next, we travel north. San Jose visits the Wild for a marquee matchup on NBCSN. This should be a great game, but if you look at the numbers they give some hints as to who might pull ahead in the end. Minnesota is actually not good at home this year, posting a measly 14-13-6 record; they actually boast a better road record. Meanwhile, the Sharks haven’t been phenomenal on the road (they have a winning record by four games) but have been great against the Central at 12-4-0. And look at the Wild against the Pacific; 10-10-1. The Wild have lost both meetings to the Sharks this year, one in each arena, and the previous matchup at Xcel Energy Center went really badly for Minnesota, as they lost 4-0. Looking at the netminders, Devan Dubnyk has a losing record at home and worse stats than he does on the road. He was in goal for each of the Wild’s two losses to the Sharks this year, giving up seven total goals in those two starts. Another angle I like here is in the first period. The Sharks have the second-most first period goals this year, only three behind Tampa and nine ahead of third place Pittsburgh. Minnesota scores the seventh-fewest first period goals of all the teams, and they give up about league average. While it could be 0-0 after the first, it could easily be 1-0 or 2-0/2-1 San Jose as well. We’ll put a unit there, and another one ATS in case the Sharks sink that empty netter with the outrageous price we’re getting. But our real money goes on the ML.

San Jose -1.5 (+225) 1unit
San Jose ML (-109) 3units
San Jose -0.5 (1st Period) (+175) 1unit

Those are my angles for today. Make sure you follow on twitter (@jksportsbets), as I often release in-game plays that have shown to be very profitable. Get that alarm ringing!