Florida State vs Gonzaga -7.5 O/U 147

A lot can be said about Gonzaga’s amazing season this year.   Some say they are the best team on paper.   Some say that their schedule and conference was too easy.   I think that I am someone more in the middle.   The Zags had an amazing year averaging 52.3 % shooting away from home and outscoring their opponents by 13.6 points.   Saying all of that doesn’t sound so great when looking at the full slate of competition but they did beat a healthy Duke on a neutral court.   Florida State on the other hand had a real man’s schedule ranking 29th on Kenpom  beating non-conference opponents like LSU, Purdue and Florida while playing in the ACC.   The Seminals average 43.4 shooting percentage on the road outscoring opponents by 4.6   Their only losses have been to Duke and North Carolina since that little hick-up that they had in mid-January.   My biggest concern for the Seminals is that Gonzaga is a faster paced team and that is the only profile that Florida State seems to struggle against when you saw them play Duke and UNC.   On the other hand, Florida State is very tall and that is something that Gonzaga doesn’t see every day.  The Seminols are also very deep team and should be able to rotate guys in like Chris Koumadje and PJ Savoy when their team gets a little gassed or in foul trouble against the Zags which I think will be key.  Florida State has a 10 player deep rotation.  The only top 25 teams that the Zags have faced is North Carolina, Tennessee and Duke and they only won 1 of those games.   Florida State also plays a bit slower which we saw Gonzaga struggle against that profile vs St. Mary’s.  I think the height and the stingy Seminals defense should be enough to not only cover this spread but to actually have a shot at winning this game.

Florida State +7.5 and ML

Purdue vs Tennessee -1- O/U 146.5

This should be a great game!  Both of these teams are less than 250 miles away from Louisville and you can expect a 50/50 fan split.   Purdue in the past has been a bad NCAA tournament team.  Matt Painter has taken a lot of crap for it in the past but this year looks more promising.  I like Purdue a lot this year.   They have an NBA player in Carson Edwards, they have some serious height down low, they rebound the ball very well ranking 18th in offensive rebounds.   The big problem that I have against Purdue is that they supposedly shoot bad on the road ranking only 41.2% and outscoring their opponents by only .6 points.   Seeing what they have done in the tournament against Villanova and Old Dominion shows differently.   Tennessee on the other hand is one of my play-on teams ranking 3rd in offensive efficiency and a huge 49.6% road shooting percentage outscoring opponents by 5.8 points.   The problem with the Vols is that they have had some hot and cold spells and falter against the good 3 point shooting teams.   Their coach Rick barns also has a bad tournament record and seems unable to ever get bast the sweet 16.   Tennessee is great at everything offensively but can’t seem to rebound the ball well and they only rank 207th in defending the 3.   Purdue relies on the 3 and it makes up about 45% of their shots led by Ryan Cline and Carson Edwards.   With Purdue’s height and 3 point shooting ability there are some clear mismatches in this game that if the Boilermakers are on, the Vols could be in for some serious trouble.   As long as Purdue can step it up on defense I think that they have a better shot than Tennessee in winning this game.

Lean Purdue ML

Texas Tech vs Michigan -2 O/U 126

Well I know what everyone is thinking here.   Under right?   These 2 teams rank number 1 and 2 on Kenpom in defensive efficiency.   Well the problem with the under is that both of these teams, even though they play very slow, are able to put up some serious points if need be.    Michigan has a top 20 offense on Kenpom and Texas Tech hasn’t scored under 70 points since February 9th at Oklahoma.   Michigan shoots 44.6% on the road and outscores opponents by 9 points while Texas Tech shoots 43.9% on the road outscoring opponents by 4.9.  Michigan has for sure had the harder schedule and the proven coach but don’t sleep on Chris Beard..   The Red Raiders have beaten some very good teams this year and that defense looked unstoppable vs Buffalo.   Both of these team have played very well on neutral floors this year.   My raw numbers have this game Michigan 64.5 to Texas Tech 64.    I think that this game is going to go down to who wants it more and being that Michigan was a final 4 team last year, I have to think that Tech could be more motivated but I am not convinced on a side or total at these numbers.

Lean Texas Tech and lean over

Oregon vs Virginia -8.5 O/U 119

Well this is certainly a low total for a high spread.   This game has the most variance on what could happen here.  Sharp money is on Oregon and the under.  On paper, Oregon was a fade team shooting only 42.1% away from home and only outscoring opponents by 1.6 points in a weak Pac-12.   Well they proved a lot of people wrong this year winning their last few games by about 20 points or so.   The Ducks are certainly the hottest team in College Basketball and that top recruiting talent has finally come to fruition over the last few weeks.  Teams have really seemed to struggle scoring against the Duck’s match-up zone defense.  Virginia on the other hand is more experienced and still feels the sting of that first round loss as a 1 seed from last year.  The Cavaliers have the largest variance of road points scoring 74.1 on the road and only allowing 57.5.   They shoot 47.7% away from home.   Raw numbers have Virginia by about 9.5 points but I think you have to look at just the last 3 weeks to cap this game correctly.   I think after watching what Oregon’s huge front court did to Wisconsin which is supposedly the number 3 defense in the league tells me that they should be able to put some points up vs Virginia here.   I think this large of a spread with the small size of this total warrants a small play but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Virginia come out hot and blow this team out either….

Oregon +8.5 and small ML

Friday March 22nd

Cincinnati vs Iowa +3.5 O/U 138
Columbus Ohio

I really wanted to fade Cincinnati here after Houston only shot 30% in the American Athletic Conference Championship but this doesn’t really look like the spot. The Bearcats get to play the Hawkeyes practically at home here only 100 miles away while Iowa city is about 550 miles from Columbus. This is kinda like Iowa going to Ohio State for a game. Iowa has been bad on the road. They shoot 44.4% which is ok but they give up 75.5 points per game and only score 74.8. Cinci has been even worse shooting on the road at 40.7% shooting but they do score more points at 66.1 and give up 62.5 away which says good things about their defense. Being that the Bearcats are essentially at home it may be better to look at their home shooting percentage of 45.2%. Both teams have done well on neutral courts this year with Iowa winning 4 out of 5 and Cincinnati winning all 5 games. The thing that worries me most about the Bearcats is what happens if Jarron Cumberland just happens to get into foul trouble. Only 1 other player besides him averages double digit points and that is Keith Williams at 10. From a scoring perspective, the Bearcats are not deep at all. Iowa is one of the best teams this year in drawing fouls. They rank 14th in the nation at ft attempts over FG attempts. I do not like the smell of this game at all and I am going to stay away. I don’t even have a lean.

Lean First Half Under

UC Irvine vs Kansas State -4.5 O/U 119
San Jose, California

The Public is all over UC Irving driving this spread from +5.5 to +4.5. This is a lot more of a home game for UC Irvine even though they are an 8 hour drive away. I don’t see a lot of K-State fans coming to this game unless they knew if Dean Wade was playing. UC Irvine plays in a weak Big West conference but they haven’t lost since January 16th. Their only top 50 win was vs St. Mary’s and they were drudged by double digits against Butler and Utah State. Irvine shoots well on the road at 45% and they outscore their opponents by 8.2 but looking at this schedule it is hard for me get too excited. K state shoots only 42.3 % on the road but they outscore their opponents by 5.5 showing their great D. Now I know that Zion Williamson is the most valuable guy to any team but Kansas State without Dean Wade is Bi-polar. Without Wade, they got stomped by Marquette by 12, lost to Tulsa by 1 and barley beat Southern Miss and George Mason. With Wade they beat teams on the road like Texas, Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma and TCU. They also dominated their neutral games winning 5 out of 6. This cap is simple to me here. If Wade Plays I have Kansas State winning 65-56. Without Wade it could be a flat out loss. If Wade is playing I will try and hit the line quickly up to -5.5. If he isn’t I might just stay away

Kansas State -4.5 if Wade is playing no play if he isn’t

Oregon vs Wisconsin -1.5 O/U 117
San Jose, California

Every public bettor and their mom is on Oregon here. Such a trendy little pick. The most common 12-5 upset in the bracket. It’s easy to see why when Oregon finished up the Pac 12 in dominant fashion. It is also easy to see why watching Wisconsin struggle to shoot the ball at the United Center only hitting 35% from the field against Michigan State and 11% from 3. This line went all the way to Oregon -1.5 until some sharper action hit Wisconsin hard bringing it back to 1.5. I am going to guess this closes at a Pickem. If you think you are a fade the public sports bettor then this game is at least a no play for you. Whatever happened to the whole narrative that the Pac 12 sucks? Does anybody still care that Wisconsin’s defense ranks 3rd in the nation? Wisconsin’s offense actually ranks a lot higher than Oregons on Kenpom still even after all of this by about 50 spots. Wisconsin before the Big 10 tournament went 2-1 in Neutral sites only losing to Virginia by 7. The Badgers shoot 43.9 Percent on the road while Oregon shoots 42.1 in a much weaker conference. Wisconsin has some very experienced players on this team including Ethan Happ who plays like no other big man. People think that San Jose California should bring more Oregon fans but they are still over 500 miles away. Wisconsin travels well and and have a big following in California. I have been to many Badger Bars there. Oregon has beaten Washington but they haven’t faced a defense quite like Wisconsin. Oregon spend all of their energy getting to the NCAA tournament. Fading the perception here and I took the Badgers at +1.5 and I like them all the way to -3. This is kind of a system play as well backing a team that shot very bad the last outing.

Wisconsin up to -3

Georgia State vs Houston -11.5 O/U 141.5
Tulsa Oklahoma

This game is pretty interesting. Houston looked terrible in their AAC championship game only shooting 30% and losing to Cincinnati while Georgia State went on a nice run finishing off their competition in the Sun Belt. Now Houston is a much better team when Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks are hitting who both shot less than 25% against Cinci. They would have lost to East Carolina shooting like that. Georgia State is pretty good shooting 44.8 % away but they have been outscored by 1 point per game average on the road as well. The only top 65 teams that they have faced was Liberty and Creighton and they got destroyed both times. Houston shoots 45% on the road having a much harder schedule and has an amazing 15 point varience on the road for Points scored and points allowed. This is second to only Virginia. Georgia State has only the 137th ranked defense in the league. This once again is a system play.

Houston -11.5

Liberty vs Mississippi State -6.5 O/U 134
San Jose, California

Here is another situation where a team looks great on paper yet hasn’t beaten a top 100 team except in conference. Liberty had opportunities against teams like Georgetown and Alabama and they failed the test miserably losing by about 10 points each. The problem here is that Mississippi state on paper to me looks like a fade team and Liberty looks like a team to be on. The Flames play very slow at 4th slowest in the nation draining their opponents while shooting an amazing 48.8 Percent on the road outscoring road opponents by 6.8 points. This team has really improved. The Rebels on the other hand has had some up and down swings all year and and finished the season kinda cold only able to beat down the bad teams and hasn’t had a top 50 win since Feb 2nd. I really like Liberties defense and pace of play here. The early money drove this line down to 6.5 for a reason and I took this at +7. If you can find a 7 its a play and I also lean under

Liberty +7 and lean under 134

UCF vs VCU +1 O/U 126.5
Columbia, South Carolina

This is such an interesting game. 2 Mid Major type basketball conferences facing off. Both teams coming off disappointing losses in their conference tournaments. You have an amazing defense with VCU ranking 7th on Kenpom and you have the tallest guy in basketball with Tacko Fall on Central Florida. VCU plays a little bit faster than average but they shoot poorly at 43% on the road in a weaker division. UCF shoots a nice 46% on the road and outscores much of their opponents but how will UCF play against that pressure defense that VCU throws out there. The edge on offense goes to UCF ranking 90th in effective FG % while VCU ranks 177th. Both teams are really bad a shooting free throws with neither over 70%. I think the best play here is the first half under. Both of these teams will be feeling each other out in the beginning and both teams rank high in defending the 3 point shot.

First half under 58.5

Ohio State vs Iowa State -5.5 O/U 139.5
Tulsa, Oklahoma

Looks like Ohio State is going to Big 12 country to play Iowa State. Thank god Caleb Wesson is back for the Buckeyes. They are a terrible team without him. This is another offense vs Defense Game. Iowa State ranks 9th in offense against Ohio State’s 29th in defense while Ohio State’s offense ranks 75th against Iowa State’s 59th defense. I want to fade Ohio State here because they only shoot 39% on the road but Iowa State they have been pretty bad over the last month or so. Ohio State was bad but I liked the way that they played against Indiana and only losing to Michigan State by 7 in the Big 10 tournament.

Lean Ohio State +5.5