What a day we had yesterday! A clean sweep, a perfect 5-0
for +11.52units in the newsletter picks, with another successful pick added via
twitter in-game for a total daily profit of +14units! Just like with the losses,
though, let’s not mull over it too much, and instead move on to reflection and
tonight’s slate.
Chicago’s OVER streak ended at 16 games in a 2-1
win in Dallas. Be wary of any over team playing on the road in an under arena.
I’ll do further research on that this week, but my initial reaction is that it
goes under a lot.
The Sharks won in OT, and I felt like that was
likely, so I went with the normal ML there. The Blues are a very, very good
team, and very good on the road. Look for opportunities with them in the remaining
weeks of the regular season.
The Flyers are good all of a sudden, and Vegas
is rolling.
Today’s Slate
There are only five games tonight, but man do they all look good! Three of the five have the favorite no
more than -139. Lots of good, close games between playoff teams. Vegas and
Calgary, Boston and Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and Washington. LA and Anaheim do
battle in SoCal, and Detroit travels into Florida. There’s not a lot of value
in today’s slate, and I only have one pick I’m comfortable sharing for tonight.
The Golden Knights are hot. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it
again; this is a new team since the trade deadline. Meanwhile, Calgary was red hot but has now lost four in a row,
including an ugly loss to the Coyotes and a loss to these Knights in Vegas. I
do think Calgary will be looking for revenge at home, but I don’t think it’s
coming. It’s the second game in two nights for Vegas, but I think it’s good
they keep playing often with the momentum they have. Additionally, they’ve won
two of the last three back legs of a back-to-back. We’ve put trust in them
before, and I expect Vegas to win for us again here.
Vegas ML (+119)
2units
Unfortunately, that’s it for today! Follow me on twitter
(@jksportsbets); I’ll be keeping an eye on the scoreboard and likely releasing
some IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability. Make sure you have that
alarm bell turned on!
Today in Phoenix, AZ at ISM Raceway will be the 4th Nascar Monster Cup series race of the 2019 season. This week the cars are back to 750 hp but they keep the 8″ spoilers which give them a lot of extra downforce that will create some exciting racing! Since this will be the first race with this particular package we’re going to limit the juice and pick drivers that like this track and can wheel it. We’ve been in the green the last two weeks with our picks and will look to continue that in this ever changing season.
Sunday Afternoon Toronto visits Miami, as we are in the final stretch of the season I think we’re likely to see more overs and I think a day game plays to that even more. Raptors/Heat over 216
Last time out we didn’t fare so well. There were several
upsets that we were on the wrong side of, and some totals that came oh so
close. The best that we can do is to learn from our mistakes!
Yesterday three of the four winning teams scored
six goals or more. Two of them had eight each. The Ducks scored more last night
than they did in the seven games from
February 2nd to 17th. Wow.
Winnipeg also put up an eight burger last night.
It’s their third time this season they’ve scored 8+ in a game and the fifth
time they’ve scored 7+. Also, wow.
Today’s Slate
There are 12 games tonight, but we’re taking a different
approach than usual. I can’t find any good edges with the totals; again, I’m
recommending you proceed with caution on the Blackhawks over bet. Dallas is an
UNDER team, especially at home, and if you watched the ‘Hawks game on Thursday
when I sent out my previous fade recommendation, you’ll know it was very close to missing. Let’s move on.
San Jose is the second-best home team in the league this
year, behind only Tampa Bay. They’re 11-2 in their last 13 at home, and somehow
always manage to win at SAP Center.
The Blues were playing well for quite a while but seem to have lost a step
recently. They’re 2-2 in their last four and probably should have lost that
game in Anaheim if it were not for a colossal collapse by the Ducks. Take the
home team at a reduced price in this one – the Sharks are near unbeatable in
downtown San Jose and have everything
to play for.
San Jose ML (-130) 2units
The Devils are 1-7 in their last eight back legs of a
back-to-back on the road. They played (and lost) last night in Washington, and
they have just looked terrible this
year. Meanwhile, while the Rangers have been out of the playoff race for some
time now they show no signs of stopping. They continue to push the pace and
tempo every game and play as if they were competing for that last playoff spot.
The Rangers have lost six in a row but bear with me; they’ve lost those games
by an average of 1.16 goals/game. All of them have been one-goal games with one two goal loss in there. Those
include losses to Montreal (playing very well), Tampa Bay, Washington (twice),
and Dallas. The last win the Rangers had? At home against New Jersey. Look for
the Devils to help end New York’s skid tonight.
New York Rangers
3-Way ML (-120) 2units
New York Rangers ML (-172) 3units
The Golden Knights have shown to be a new team since the
deadline a couple weeks ago. They’ve since won five in a row and are clicking
on all cylinders. They travel to Vancouver to face a ‘Nucks team that has gone
1-4 in their last five. Last time out Vancouver lost to the Oilers 3-2, and if
you watched that game you know it wasn’t nearly as close as the score
indicated. An interesting aspect to this game is that Vancouver gives up the
sixth-most power plays on the year and the Knights have the seventh most
efficient power play in the league. I think special teams will make a bigger
impact in this game than expected, and have the Knights winning comfortably.
They won 3-0 last time out against Vancouver, and I expect a similar score.
Vegas -1.5 (+152)
1unit
Vegas 3-Way ML (-125) 3units
Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) during the entire NHL
slate today; I’ll be keeping an eye on the scoreboard and likely releasing some
IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability. Make sure you have that alarm
bell turned on!
This looks like 2 tournament teams facing off here at the end of the season. Minnesota is coming off that great win against Purdue while Maryland is coming off of a tough home loss against Michigan. Minnesota is 5-5 ATS on the road while Maryland is 7-9-1 at home. Now the spot definitely says potential let down here for Minnesota but they still probably remain a slight bubble team even after beating Purdue. Minnesota is pretty locked up where they stand in the big 10 tournament which is a second day game but Maryland on the other hand still has a shot at getting a 2 day bye should Wisconsin lose a game. Maryland is on 4 days rest and Minnesota will only be on 2 so as you see the spot favors Maryland. The home road offensive splits show Maryland scoring 11.5 more points per game at home rather than on the road and Minnesota scoring 14.7 points less on the road and at home. Part of this huge disparity is obviously both teams play most easy non conference games at home but these double digits at this point in the year definitely say something. In conference games Maryland ranks top 5 adjusted efficiency on offense and 4th on defense while Minnesota is 6th and 10th respectively. Looking at the match-up Maryland’s biggest weakness is turnovers ranking last in the big 10 in losing the ball and steals. Minnesota doesn’t steal the ball well ranking 13th. Minnesota’s biggest weakness is defending in the paint and rebounding while Maryland has the size to score down low with dual 6’10 guy Bruno Fernando and Jaylen Smith. I like the Terps to cover here and re-establish their position as a top tier big 10 team. I have this Maryland
Maryland -7 and lean under 138
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan +3 O/U 153
Both Tom Kolpien and I like the Central Michigan -3 as long as Montgomery is playing.
Michigan vs Michigan State -4 O/U 131
Well this game certainly became interesting now that Purdue has lost to Minnesota. Michigan State and Michigan with a win here secures at least a portion of the big 10 regular season title. Michigan may get a little extra love here on the spot because it is a revenge game for that loss at home. Michigan is 6-4 ATS on the road but Michigan State is a crazy 11-4 ATS at home. Michigan State will be without Nick Ward and Michigan will be without Charles Matthews and I think these injuries somewhat cancel each other out. Home road splits are not too extravagant for the Wolverines but for Sparty they are are around 17 points. Conference points per game splits has Sparty winning 68 to 67 on a neutral or 70-65 at home. Michigan States offensive and defensive efficiency rank 1st and 3rd in the big 10 while Michigan ranks 4th and 1st. Overall Michigan State has the 4th best offense in the nation and Michigan has the 3rd best defense in the nation. This game will be hard to pick a side here. Michigan did not shoot as well last game and had 10 less free throws. What I am going to look at is the over. It is true that both of these teams play at the slower tempo but being that these teams are among the best in the big 10 you have to add a possession or back in for each team to assume there won’t be much of a garbage time. This game went to 147 a few weeks ago. I have it Michigan State winning 70 – 65
Over 131 and lean Michigan +4
Louisville vs Virginia – 11 O/U 124
Both Tom and I like the under 124
Texas Tech vs Iowa State -1 O/U 137
Texas Tech has been on fire winning their last 8 games in a row, 7-1 ATS in those games and being a modest 4-4 ATS as an away team. Iowa State is definitely in the tournament beating this Tech team back in Mid January and boasting an 8-5-1 at home against the spread record. Looking at the spot, Iowa State could gain back a better seed for winning this game in the NCAA tournament but it won’t help them win the big 12. This is a road revenge game for the Red Raiders and they need this win to secure at least a share of the regular season Big 12 championship so the spot definitely favors Tech here. Home road splits definitely favor the Cyclones but they have lost 2 of their last 3 home games. Texas Tech as been a much better conference team scoring 71 points and allowing only 62 while Iowa State scores 73 and allows 70. Iowa State has the 10th best offense in the nation but only the 3rd best in efficiency in the big 12. Tech’s defense is 1st in the nation and in the big 12. I think their defense prevails and their hunger to win their first regular season big 12 title should prevail. Texas Tech wins 71-69
Texas Tech +1
Syracuse vs Clemson -4 O/U 128
Both of these teams are 19-12 bubble teams who need a big victory. Back in January Syracuse beat Clemson by 8 at home. Syracuse had some bad luck vs Virginia on Monday who shot lights out against them in the Carrier Dome. Clemson has had a nice part of their schedule facing Boston College, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame 3 of their last 4 games while Syracuse had to play Louisville, Duke, North Carolina and Virginia 4 of their last 5 games. Both of these teams are middle of the road ACC teams on paper but for some reason Syracuse score’s 3 more points per game on the road then they do at home. From a match-up standpoint Syracuse has a big advantage in blocks down low and causing turnovers while Clemson has the advantage in over all defensive efficiency and low effective FG%. The key motivation here is that Syracuse needs this game more than Clemson and they will be on more rest. Clemson just played Notre Dame Wednesday and Syracuse has had 4 full days rest to think about needing this W. Syracuse always seems to come through at the end and sneak into the tournament. They like to bounce back big after a loss. I think this game is close and Clemson squeaks out a win on senior night by 65-63.
Syracuse +4 small and ml sprinkle
Purdue vs North Western +7 O/U 133
Purdue coming off of a huge loss vs Minnesota now giving up a chance at a big 10 regular season title unless they win this game. Northwestern finally getting a win after losing 10 in a row against a very injured Ohio State team without their best player in Kaleb Wesson. The Wildcats have the worst offense in the big 10 and 187th in the nation in offensive efficiency and Purdue has the 5th best in the nation at 121.5. The Boilermakers also edge out Northwestern in conference Defense. Motivation vs no motivation!
Purdue -7 may be a max play up to -11
Duke vs North Carolina -7 O/U 167
Road revenge spot for Duke. North Carolina can lock up a share of the ACC regular season here. Everyone knows that Zion Williamson is hurt and people say he is worth 5 points to the line. Well that may be true but I think the the whole Wake Forest game when duke barely beat them by 1 point and Duke’s loss to Virginia Tech will end up giving Duke a ton of line value here. No player to me is worth 5 points when it comes to the pure motivation of the team. We have to remember that Duke still has 2 active top 5 recruits and Cam Reddish. These kids will be hyped up for this game and this spot. We know both of these teams can score points but I think that even with Zion out, coach K will be having them play a little more defense. We know that Duke’s biggest weakness is shooting the 3 and free throws to some extent but where Duke has a chance here is that North Carolina ranks 10th in the conference in defending the 3. I think if Duke can get hot like they have at Syracuse and at Virginia, they should be able to motivated themselves to a cover. I like the Duke +7 but if it opens low like around 3 or 4 I may take the line value with the Tar Heels.
UNC -3 small and Duke +7 larger. Duke is the play at +7
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
March Madness is here and it is the last weekend of regular season games! We first get into the Big 10 team rankings as usual. We have a new guest in handicapper Thomas Kolpien @CoverProfit comes in to discuss some of his tactics and handicapping style. We then talk a bit about some trends on how to bet some of these teams in the tournaments. Finally we get into some huge games for the weekend!
NCAA: Minnesota vs Maryland – Central Michigan vs Western Michigan – Michigan vs Michigan State – Louisville vs Virginia – Texas Tech vs Iowa State – Syracuse vs Clemson – Purdue vs Northwestern – Duke vs North Carolina – Illinois vs Penn State
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It’s really two days
ago’s reflection, but let’s not argue over nuances. We learned some very
valuable pieces of information from the dumpster fire that was our investment
tendencies on Tuesday. Reminder: I sent out an investment in-game last night
that hit for +3units. Make sure you follow on twitter (@jksportsbets) for these
profitable in-game investments!
Columbus simply can’t be trusted right now.
The Coyotes are being overvalued in the market
(more below).
Vegas is a very good team, and I would not want
to face them in the first round. Clearly, the addition of Stone has sparked
something.
We got a good slate tonight! I have a LOT of value here.
Today’s Slate
We have 11 games to wade through tonight, and there’s value
to be had across the board.
Is there any team hotter right now than the Bruins? Four
wins in a row and 11 in their last 12. If you’ve been investing with them it
has paid off handsomely. Wins against Tampa, the Sharks (twice), Vegas, the
Isles, the Caps; you name a team, and Boston has beaten them recently.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have lost five in a row, and are coming off an overtime
loss to Pittsburgh. Florida has now fallen out of the playoff race, and it’s
starting to show. The ML is too juiced, and the spread is only at +125, so take
a 3-Way ML bet for the B’s tonight.
Boston 3-Way ML
(-145) 2units
The Penguins have won seven in a row against Columbus dating
back to 2017. Columbus is reeling, and no one on that team is clicking with
each other. Also, three of their last four head-to-head have gone OVER the
total. Columbus has lost four of the last six as an underdog and lost 5-2 the
last time these teams met. Columbus has been inconsistent across the board
lately, and inconsistency won’t fly tonight in Pittsburgh – the Pens are
playing their best hockey of the season. In an interesting spot, these two
teams will face off again on
Saturday. I think the fireworks happen here; tonight. Take the over and take
the Pens.
Pittsburgh ML (-130) 2units
Columbus/Pittsburgh OVER 6.5 (-128) 1unit
Tampa Bay. What is there to say that you don’t already know.
Winners of 12 of their last 13. Winners of the President’s Trophy. Winners of
the regular season. Here’s one you might not know; in their last eight at home,
Tampa has scored more than four goals six times. Right now, you can find a team
total O/U set at 3.5. Clear OVER bet there. Additionally, a 3-Way line on Tampa
is under -175 right now, which is not that common. The Wild have strung
together a couple wins which might be the reason for the ML drop, but these
wins were not deserved. They can’t stand up to the competition in Florida.
Tampa Bay -1.5 (+105)
1unit
Tampa Bay 3-Way ML (-160) 3units
Tampa Bay Team Total OVER 3.5 (-120) 3units
Vancouver and Edmonton have had their struggles this year.
One of the biggest issue for the ‘Nucks is the goaltending and the depth (or
lack thereof) in that position. Tonight, they’re starting Thatcher Demko in his
fourth ever career start. The last two starts he gave up eight goals combined.
He’s only started two games since the middle of January, the aforementioned two;
oh, and by the way, he gave up those eight goals to the Sabres and the Coyotes.
Not exactly elite competition. Interest stat: in their six games at home with
an O/U of 6, the Oilers are 4-1-1 to the OVER. Edmonton is 5-2 in the last
seven, while the ‘Nucks are 2-6 in their last eight. Over and Oilers look good
here. The regular ML is too juiced, so look 3-Way instead.
Edmonton -1.5 (+160)
2units
Edmonton 3-Way ML (-120) 3units
Edmonton/Vancouver OVER 6 (+108) 2units
This is a clear bet
on Calgary spot. They’ve had some tough losses lately having lost three in a
row. But let’s keep in mind which teams these losses were to: Minnesota,
Toronto, and Vegas. Those three teams are definitely fighting for playoff
positioning, and losses to them are nothing to be disappointed about. Calgary
had a seven game win streak before this losing streak where they beat the Islanders
twice, the Pens once, and these ‘Yotes 5-2. Meanwhile, Arizona has won six of
their last seven, yet those wins were not
convincing, and they were against subpar competition. Due to recency bias,
you’re getting a ridiculous price on Calgary today. Take the trifecta with confidence.
Calgary -1.5 (+200)
1unit
Calgary 3-Way ML (+110) 2units
Calgary ML (-129) 3units
The Kings have gone OVER in five of their last six, and yet
the O/U sits at 5.5 simply because the Blues are in town. Los Angeles is 6-2 to
the over in their last eight. Jake Allen is expected to start for St. Louis
tonight, and he’s given up at least four goals in three of the last five.
Meanwhile, Quick posts an ugly 3.30 GAA and .891 SV through 36 games played
this year. I like the OVER here. Also, the Blues are not good in the second half of back-to-backs this year, having lost
10 of their last 12 in that role, including ugly losses to Arizona (twice) and
Anaheim. They were outscored in those two losses to Arizona 12-1. Yuck. The
Kings have taken many quality teams the distance this year, just to fall short
in the third or in overtime. We keep thinking their motivation will drop but it
doesn’t. At +152, it’s too good a spot to pass up. Keep an eye on my twitter
(@jksportsbets) specifically for this game, I can see situations where we can
find value in-game as well.
Los Angeles ML (+152)
1unit
Los Angeles/St. Louis OVER 5.5 (+123) 2units
You might notice there’s a very blatant OVER bet missing
from my recommendations tonight. Yep. I’m doing the unthinkable and telling you
to fade
the Blackhawks OVER tonight. This one’s based on intuition; the ‘Hawks
have been an over machine. I’m very wary
of tonight’s game against the Sabres, and I think you should be too. Invest in
the game total with care.
Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) during the entire NHL
slate tonight, as I release IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability.
Make sure you have the alarm bell turned on!
Nebraska may be the most disappointing team in the big 10 this year. With hopes of tournament birth this team has only won 2 of their last 12 games and much of the reason for this is when they lost their second best player Isaiah Copeland in January. Michigan State has had their own injuries losing Josh Langford and then recently Nick Ward for a few weeks who should be able to come back for the Tournament Madness. Sparty is coming off of another embarrassing lost to an Indiana team who is trying to get back on the bubble with a win against Wisconsin a week ago as well. MSU should be plenty motivated here to finish out their games with wins in order to try and get a piece of that Big 10 regular season. What sticks out like a soar thumb to me is how bad Nebraska is as an away team. Over their last 3 road games they have lost by an average of 23.5 points and now they have to play the best in the Big 10. Michigan State may be pretty injured but their defense is still very good holding opponents to only 61 points per game at home. Both teams play slow in conference at 65.9 plays per game. This Nebraska team is pretty much now out of contention for the NCAA tournament unless they somehow win the Big 10 tournament and I think that they will not be motivated to play hard here in this spot. I like Michigan State to take care of business defensively to keep up with Purdue for the Big 10 regular season title.
Michigan State -13 and under 139
South Carolina vs Texas A&M – 4.5 O/U 142
This game is more of a situational play rather than a spot play. Both of these teams are out of the NCAA tournament and both are going in opposite directions. South Carolina has lost their best player in point guard AJ Lawson to injury a week ago who averaged 14 points per game, 3 assists per game, 1.1 steels per game and even 4.4 rebounds. This injury really stuck its ugly head out on Saturday vs Missouri with SC losing by 15. Now South Carolina has to go on the road again after dropping 3 straight games to face an Aggies team that has a lot of pride. Texas A&M has been relatively hot ripping off wins in 5 of their last 7 games. Now both of these teams play pretty sloppy and turn the ball over plenty but the 2 things that I am banking on here in this handicap is that South Carolina thrives by shooting the 3 point shot with the fact that they lost their best shooter to injury and Texas A&M is a team that defends the 3 very well while having the better defense. Both offenses are pretty much equal if all things are held equal but the big injury to the Gamecocks should once again rear it’s ugly head. I do not see how South Carolina wins this game without their stud and this line should be -6.
We only found value in one investment yesterday – I don’t
force them, I only take ‘em when I feel there’s value to be had. The good news
is our investment paid off for a +3unit profit yesterday! Buffalo and Edmonton
hit the over in the second period, so there was no stress in that one. The main
takeaway from yesterday is…
The Leafs and Flames game was pretty
disappointing. Expected a great one, got a mediocre one.
We have a busy slate tonight!
Today’s Slate
There are 10 games tonight. A lot of the games, however,
have lines that I feel are pretty good. The real value tonight will be in-game wagers. As long as there’s value
to be found, I’ll be releasing plays in between periods of the games tonight on
my twitter (@jksportsbets). The track record proves that these investments are
more profitable than other types of bets – so follow and get that alarm bell on
for maximum profit!
We’ll start in Jersey. Call me an optimist, but I know this
Blue Jackets team will come together soon enough. Since the trade deadline
expectations have been high but results have been low. This is a great spot for
the Jackets to start a run. They can build momentum against a weak Devils team
and follow it up with two straight against the Pens. While this might seem like
a classic “look ahead” spot, I don’t believe so. Columbus knows they need to
win and win now. Since the deadline
they haven’t had a road game, so this is a great chance to get their feet under
themselves away from the distractions at home. The Devils have lost three in a
row and four of five, meanwhile the Jackets won four of their last five on the
road before the deadline. Look for this unpredictable Columbus team to return
to winning ways and predictability tonight at Prudential Center (and the 3-Way
line is only -130 at MyBookie).
Columbus -1.5 (+110)
2units
Columbus 3-Way ML (-130) 3units
Out in the desert about 100 miles from where I’m at right
now is a battle between average and bad. Anaheim drives out to visit the
Coyotes at Gila River Arena. The good news for investors is that these are two of
the most UNDER proficient teams in the league. Anaheim has gone under eight in
their last 11 as well as 6-1 in the last seven. Arizona is 7-4 to the under in
their last 11. Both offenses are terrible – the ‘Yotes are 28th in
the league in GF, and the Ducks are dead last. But not only do these teams not
score, they don’t give up an insane
amount of goals. The Ducks are 16th in GA and the Coyotes allow the
8th fewest goals in the NHL. The UNDER is at 5.5, and deservedly so.
Take it for two units. Additionally, Arizona is right in the middle of a seven
game homestand, and they’ve won six in a row. Those wins have come against
subpar teams (except for one against Winnipeg), and that’s what the Coyotes
face tonight. They have a chance (albeit a small one) to make their first trip
back to the postseason since they lost to the Kings in the conference finals in
2011-2012. This team is playing very well right now – I’m continually impressed
by the hustle shown by Conor Garland. Throw a unit on the ML and put faith in
the Desert Dogs tonight. Unfortunately, both investments are juiced up, so make
exposure low here.
Arizona ML (-158)
1unit
Anaheim/Arizona UNDER 5.5 (-145) 2units
Southern California is our last stop, again. For most of the
year the Kings were an under team. Under, under, under. Bad teams don’t score
goals, and therefore the under hits reliably, right? Well, lately not so. The
Kings, since their streak of 5 in a row to the under ended on January 17, have
been 9-2 to the OVER. They’re still losing games, but the offense has picked it
up. When you break it down by division it gets more interesting. In terms of
O/U, the Kings have hit the over in eight of their last ten against the
Atlantic. With the total at only 5.5, this is a clear OVER bet for me.
Additionally, when looking at the side, Los Angeles is 2-9-3 against the
Atlantic this year (and have lost the last TWELVE IN A ROW). Yep. The Kings
have lost twelve in a row to the Atlantic, including losses to Ottawa (x2),
Buffalo (x2), and Detroit. Meanwhile Montreal is a surprising 10-3 SU against
the Pacific and have won six in a row, including 4-1 on the road this year. The
Canadiens are right in the mix of the playoff race in the East and are playing
with lots of motivation. We’re throwing
a lot at this matchup.
Montreal -1.5 (+195)
1unit
Montreal 3-Way ML (+115) 1unit
Montreal ML (-137) 3units
Los Angeles/Montreal OVER 5.5 (-111) 3units
Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) especially tonight, as
I’m hopeful for more value to be found in-game, so our LIVE IN-GAME investments
should increase profitability. Make sure you have the alarm bell turned on to
get notified of my tweets since I release plays IN-GAME that greatly increase
our profitability!
We had a good day yesterday, and even though we went 3-4 on
the pregame picks, we still profited 0.6 units. If you followed my twitter
(@jksportsbets) you would have profited 2.5 MORE units because we cashed an
in-game bet of 2units at +125. Follow and get that alarm bell on for extra
profit!
Vegas added Mark Stone at the trade deadline,
and since have won four straight. I don’t see a division title in their future,
but that first round matchup between either the Sharks or the Flames and Vegas
is going to be good.
Columbus is still a mess, and still hard to predict.
Getting that CHI/SJS OVER at 6.5 early and as
opposed to 7 at game time made all the
difference.
The Avalanche are shaky, at best.
Today’s Slate
It’s a small slate tonight, as there are only two games.
Edmonton travels to play the Sabres, and the marquee matchup consists of the
Maple Leafs going to Calgary, an all Canada battle of two of the top NHL teams.
That Toronto/Flames game is going to be excellent, and I can’t find much value.
I think the lines are spot on there, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting it,
but I’ll be matching as a fan for SURE! Value can be found in Buffalo.
The Sabres have hit the OVER in five straight games, and
three straight at home. When playing at home as a favorite between -115 and
-130 Buffalo has hit the over in five of the last seven going back to March
2018 (yes, they’ve only been a favorite between 115 and 130 seven times in a
year). But more significantly, when the Oilers are underdogs between +100 and
+125, they have gone over in seven in a
row, and eight of the last nine. Neither Mikko Koskinen nor Linus Ullmark
are in the top 25 in the league in GAA or SV. Buffalo has allowed at least three
goals in seven of the last nine, eight of their last 11, and 17 of their last
25. Both teams aren’t mathematically eliminated yet, and they have one last
gasp before the playoffs, so bet on fireworks. The over/under is at 6 for this
game which makes sense given the stats, but if you realistically think about
this game it should probably be 6.5. Have fun with an over bet here, and plan
on a push being a worst-case scenario!
BUF/EDM OVER 6 (-118) 3units
PSA: The OVER is being bet up; it was at -111 not an hour
ago. Get on it quick, just like the ‘Hawks last night! Taking it at 6.5 last
night instead of 7 was KEY. Don’t let this one fall to 6.5!
As always, follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) for LIVE NHL
betting advice, as well as handicapping tips and facts. Make sure you have the
alarm bell turned on to get notified of my tweets since I release plays IN-GAME
that greatly increase our profitability!
Welp. Yesterday did NOT go well. We picked the wrong side of
the only two upsets. I can’t promise that won’t happen, I can only promise that
I will put in the work and the research to minimize how often those days happen.
It’s just variance in the life of an investor. The best way to deal with it is
to learn and move on, so let’s move on to what we learned!
There was a match penalty last night
to the Flames’ Garnet Hathaway. I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen one
that bad; I know, it could have been him avoiding a check that went wrong. But
if you watch his eyes, I don’t think it was just that.
The horn rang
early on a no-goal in the Coyotes game with the Wings last night. Then they
scored. Really tests the referee’s knowledge of the rulebook, and I believe the
letter of the law was unforced more than the spirit. But it helped us!
The Bruins keep winning. Maybe they should,
maybe they shouldn’t, but regardless they’re getting it done.
So do the Lightening. Man, these playoffs are
shaping up to be fun…
Okay, let’s get at it! As a reminder, our night was slightly
improved due to the in-game investments I released on my twitter feed yesterday
evening. Make sure you follow (@jksportsbets) and get that alarm bell on for
LIVE IN-GAME NHL investment tips, strategies, and news.
Today’s Slate
We’re just going to get this one done so we can move on to
discussion. I have lots of facts and figures ready to back this up – San Jose
goes OVER 60% overall and 60% at home, and Chicago, well let’s not beat a dead
horse.
CHI/SJS OVER 6.5 (-152) 3units
Let’s go to Ohio again, with a different take today. Yes,
apparently the Jackets decided to retire before last night’s game, and yes,
they’re ready to bounce back. Bobrovsky has been the glue holding this team
together in these situations, and that’s great for Columbus! Except he’s not
starting tonight. Joonas Korpisalo is expected to start, and he has been
average at best, posting an .897 save percentage and a GAA of 3.01 this year. To
add on for Columbus, he is worse at home than on the road, posting .885/3.24 at
home as opposed to .911/2.71 on the road. Korpi has also lost his last three
starts. Columbus has looked like they still need some time to adjust to their
new additions; I think they’ll get there, but not tonight. Winnipeg is 9-3
against the Metropolitan Division and is coming off a big comeback win against
the Preds. I would avoid a spread bet on this game, but the odds are plenty
good for a 3-way line.
WPG 3-Way ML (+175) 2units
We now go to the City of Sin, where the Canucks come to
visit the Golden Knights. This one seems relatively simple to me. Along with
how far the ‘Nucks have fallen in the last few months, Vegas suddenly has
something to play for. First it was assumed that there was a three-way battle
for the Pacific with Vegas, Calgary, and San Jose. Then Vegas had fallen “securely”
into the three spot. Now, it’s anything but secure. Both the Wild and the
Coyotes won last night, putting Vegas only six points ahead of the Wild and
seven of Arizona. The pressure is starting to set in here for the Knights, so I
believe they will come out strong in this one. Vancouver has a -12 goal
differential in the first period and are 2-18-5 when trailing after one. Vegas
as a first period GD of only 3 goals, but they have outshot their opponents by
over 100 shots YTD in the period. Also, Vegas is 12-5-2 when scoring first at
home this year. We’re taking Vegas on the spread with a first period bet to
boot.
My last preview is in Southern California again, this time
in the county of Orange. Gibson returned for the Ducks in their last game
against Vegas, and while he played well he didn’t get offense to help him –
have you heard the before about Anaheim? They’ve lost 5 in a row and are facing
an Avs team that’s gone 6-3 in their last nine, with their losses coming to
Florida (sneaky good), St. Louis (actually good), and San Jose (very good).
Meanwhile, during this streak they’ve beaten Nashville, Winnipeg TWICE, and
Vegas, and get this: the combined score in those four wins? 19-2. NINETEEN to
TWO. The Avs held those three opponents to only two goals against in four games
and put up nearly five goals/game. These two teams are trending in opposite
directions, and the Ducks have nothing to play for while Colorado has
everything to play for. This game gets a rare triple dip from me, as I’m quite
confident Colorado wins and it may not even be that close.
COL -1.5 (+190) 1unit
COL 3-Way ML (+115) 2units
COL ML (-130) 3units
As always, follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) for LIVE NHL
betting advice, as well as handicapping tips and facts. Get that alarm bell on!
I have a good feeling about this slate!
