Last week we cashed in a positive week, getting some lost money back from Speedweeks, well continue with the strategy and keep building the bank roll up.
The 3rd NASCAR race of the season is this Sunday at Las Vegas at 3:30PM. Last week’s race was the first taste of NASCAR’s new package for 2019. Compared to previous years races on 1.5 mile tracks, the new package helped the drivers put on a great show and created a lot of excitement. The full new package will be on display this week meaning the racing is expected to be similar to how the NASCAR Truck and Xfinity series races are. Similar to last week, the strategy should be to pick some drivers at good values in matchups along with a good value pick to win the race and/or to get a top 3/5 finish. When I think about drivers that will be in the running for the win this week, I instantly think Penske racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Chip Ganassi Racing. They all showed a lot of speed and handling last week at Atlanta.
Kyle Busch (+110) vs Kevin Harvick
$50 to Win $55
Kurt Busch (-125) vs Aric Almirola
$50 to win $40
Matt Dibenedetto (+150) vs Alex Bowman
$50 to win $75
In a fun Friday night of hockey, we can definitely highlight
some takeaways.
It seems that Philadelphia’s power play is,
well, not great. Meanwhile, the Devils have one of the most underrated penalty
killing units in the league.
Ovechkin is really,
really good.
Colorado scores more in the third period than
every other team in the league except Calgary.
The Ducks are reeling, the Sabres are better
than you think, and Ovechkin is really,
really good.
Yesterday, we went 3-2 on our pre-game picks for a profit of 3.45 units. Our in-game picks
through twitter were a different story, but those are still being honed in.
Make sure to follow (@jksportsbets) for updated information.
Alright, let’s get to it!
Today’s Slate
This one’s coming out early because one of our picks plays
at 1pm Eastern. Let’s start in Ohio, where the Oilers come into town to face
the Jackets. The Oilers are 1-5 in their last six road games, and 4 of those 5
losses came by at least two goals. The only win came against a Wild team that
has been skidding as of late. They’re 11-20 ATS on the road this year, while
the Jackets have won 3 of their last 4, including a very impressive win at home
against a strong Sharks team. There’s a reason you only get +120 against the
spread for the Jackets as a goal and a half favorite. Take it and add in a
3-Way ML bet for good measure – the normal money line is at -220, and for good
measure. That’s a little too steep for my liking, though.
CBJ -1.5 (+120) 2units
CBJ 3-Way ML (-150) 3units
It’s become common knowledge that you can either go to the
ATM or you can bet Chicago OVER; either work just as well. Crawford is back in
net for the ‘Hawks for the second game since his injury, but he did not look
that great in Anaheim. Now, Chicago drives up the 5 freeway for a visit to
Staples Center to face the Kings who have lost the last ten games. This feels like
a trap game to me, and could be a lot closer than many believe. The Kings took Tampa
the distance the other day, and despite being in the cellar still seem to be
playing with a lot of emotion and energy. But let’s keep trying the Chicago
totals until they tell us it’s not going to work anymore. Chicago has gone over
6.5 goals in the last 13 games. Yes, thirteen
in a row. Meanwhile, the Kings try and stay in games but scoring, not stopping
others from scoring. Patrick Kane is playing on another level, and LA has given
up at least four goals in each of their last four games, and 20 over all four. The
OVER is currently only at -104 at BetOnline, so get on it quick!
CHI/LAK OVER 6.5 (-104) 3units
The next one is based more on intuition. In the last four
games the Sabres are merely 2-2, but those wins came against Pittsburgh and
Washington, while in both losses they were in it right to the end. The last
time the Sabres went to Toronto they severely
outplayed the Leafs, but couldn’t come away from Scotiabank Arena with both
points. I think they’ll be looking to avenge their loss last week. I believe
the market is undervaluing Buffalo and overvaluing Toronto for a variety of
reasons. There’s the name-brand factor and there’s recency bias (Toronto has
won a lot lately, while Buffalo is merely average). But these wins by the Leafs
have been more luck than skill. Let’s through a unit on the Sabres ML and get
some extra push from the odds.
BUF ML (+222) 1unit
Last, we go to Canada. Calgary has won their last seven
games in a row, including convincing wins against the Penguins and the
Islanders (twice). The Wild have since won four in a row, turning around a
seeming endless stretch where they went 1-9 from February 1 through the 17. I
don’t believe they’ve changed, though. They haven’t looked convincing in their
wins, and Calgary has been unstoppable at home as of late. Also, the Flames are
13-4-1 SU against the Central, while the wild are 9-10-1 against the Pacific.
The Flames won both previous meetings this year, one in snowy Minnesota and one
in Calgary. Look for them to sweep the season series tonight.
CGY -1.5 (+165) 1unit
CGY 3-Way ML (-120) 3units
As always, follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) for LIVE NHL
betting advice, as well as handicapping tips and facts.
This night’s slate has a couple juicy games that bring a lot of value, in my opinion. There are four games starting at 7:05p Eastern, and I like two specific sides.
The Flyers come into New Jersey off an overtime loss in Columbus. Look for them to get back on track tonight. The Devils have the fewest goals scored in the Metropolitan division and this is a good spot for the Philly D to get back on track after giving up 19 goals in the last five games. The Devils have been decent at home as of late, going 4-2 in their last six home games, but those four wins came against Buffalo, Ottawa, Carolina, and Montreal, while they didn’t have a good game against a better Calgary team. Philadelphia has won the last three back legs of a back-to-back, and they fought hard last night but got frustrated. They’ll take a beating out on the Devils, so take PHI -1.5 at extra juice and PHI 3-Way ML for an extra bonus.
PHI -1.5 (+200) 1unit PHI 3-Way ML (+115) 3units
The Isles play at home against the Capitals tonight, after a very emotional 6-1 win against Toronto with the return of Tavares. The Islanders are 9-1 in their last ten back legs of back-to-back, with their only loss coming in overtime in Edmonton last week after a hard fought game the night before in Calgary. They were 9-0 up to that point. The crowd got rambunctious last night, deservedly, and the Caps have shown to struggle playing in very hostile environments on the road. They last played on Tuesday, and they’re 1-4 in their last five games with three or more days of rest. It seem that this team might get thrown out of the groove with too much time off. This Isles team has been relatively undervalued this year, and they are playing with emotion and energy. Take the normal ML with confidence, and throw in a bet ATS for good measure.
NYI -1.5 (+235) 1unit NYI ML (+100) 3units
Last we travel to the west coast; specifically, Silicon Valley. The Sharks lost a nasty one in Boston on Tuesday, and have been heated ever since, mostly due to the feud between Evander Kane and Zdeno Chara. They’ll come out strong against a Colorado team giving up the second-most goals against in the Central Division, trailing only Chicago’s horrendous D. Meanwhile the Sharks have the second-most goals scored in both the Pacific Division and the Western Conference, behind only Calgary and only by one goal. Colorado goes over the total 54% of the time, and 58% for San Jose. Colorado has been mighty good on the road as of late, scoring 14 goals in their last three road games (5, 5, and 4). Take the over with confidence.
COL/SJS OVER 6.5 (-133) 2units
Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) for more free picks, and LIVE NHL betting for period totals, spreads, and more. Make sure to turn that alarm bell on!
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 09: Admiral Schofield #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers celebrates on the court after defeating the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the game at Talking Stick Resort Arena on December 9, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Volunteers defeated the Bulldogs 76-73. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Friday 3/1
Rhode Island vs Dayton -7.5 O/U 136
Let’s go to the Atlantic 10! So here is a game which both teams going in different directions. Dayton is working on a top 2 seed in their conference competing with VCU and Davidson while Rhode Island really has nothing to play for. Rhode Island has only had 2 road games so far in February and has only scored an average of 47 points. As a matter of fact they only average 66 points per game on the road in a pretty bad conference. Now they have to play a team in Dayton that has the top offense in their conference on Kenpom and the 3rd best defense. Now Rhode Island just ended that bad streak of 5 losses by beating up on one of the worst teams in college basketball in George Washington shooting 54% and scoring way more than their average. After getting it right for their own fans I think they have a little bit of a flat spot regressing back to the mean against the Fliers. Dayton plays the 13th slowest pace in their conference at 64.7 possessions per game to Rhode Islands 66.3. Rhode island is the worst 3 point shooting team in the nation. Dayton will not have to do much to beat this team but I also love the under! The under in Rhode Island games since February 2nd is 6-1
Under 136 Large and Dayton -7.5
Saturday 3/2
LSU vs Alabama +3 O/U 152
Nothing more says bubble to me looking at an Alabama. We have a couple of questionable guys for this game. Dazon Ingram for Bama left last game with a quad injury and he is a 27 minute player and LSU’s best point guard Tremont Waters is questionable with an illness but I expect him to play since he missed the A&M game. Looking at this spot, we can see that Alabama has everything to play for here and LSU has a slight look ahead to avenge their loss against Florida. The Tigers are a strange team to me this year. They seem to play up to the great teams and down to the bad teams. They shot terribly against the Aggies last game at only 34.8% so I usually like to come back on them but the spot is a little worrisome to me with Florida on deck and Alabama’s Motivation. One thing that I can count on is that both teams play pretty fast and their last game went all the way to 167 points with LSU winning at home 88 – 79. If LSU has any weakness it is their defense only ranking 6th in the SEC and 56th in the nation while Alabama averages 76.5 points at home. I like the Tide’s desperation to win this game. Not enough injury info for me to take a side but I will have some sort of play on the over. I have this game LSU 83 to 79
Over 152 all the way to 156
Nevada vs Utah State +1 O/U 143
Utah State is another Bubble team playing at home for revenge against the best team in the Mountain West! The Aggies are 9-4 ATS at home while the Wolfpack is a monster 7-3 ATS on the road. Looking at the splits you would see that Nevada is a much better team at home than on the road giving up about 10 more points and scoring about 3 points less. Utah State is a much better team at home than on the road scoring 6 more points per game and giving up a whopping 8 less. Going by splits Utah State wins this game 76-70 but I think it is harder to go by this seeing that Nevada has only lost 2 games all year and tend to let off the gas at the end of each game. These teams met earlier this year with the Wolfpack crushing the Aggies by 23 points but Utah State may be the most improved team since then in the nation. The biggest factor to me in this game that I do not like for Nevada is that Utah State is not only playing for revenge, they are also trying to get an at large ticket to the NCAA tournament. Nevada is most likely in anyways yet this is still a meaningful game for them not wanting to be tied for the conference. Being that both of these teams blow out their opponents in conference and I think that their tempo numbers may be showing a bit to low for this high caliber game. Last year this game went to 180
Over 143 big
Michigan State vs Indiana +8 O/U 134
Home dog alert and a real smelly one here with Indiana. This is a very weird game because Michigan State celebrated when they beat Michigan like they already clinched the division which makes this a huge let down spot but on the other hand, Michigan State lost to the Hoosiers at home and may be looking for revenge. No big 10 team is better than State against the spread as an away team at 8-3 and 20-8 overall while Indiana is a dismal 11-16 ATS. The scaring thing for me is that Indiana is fighting hard to get back on the bubble. They know that they can beat this Michigan State team and is 3-0 ATS their last 3 games. It is also hard to know how to fade a Michigan state team this good ATS even though they lost 2 of their three best players to injury in Joshua Langford and Nick Ward out another week at least. Due to the spot and the fact that the injuries may finally catch up with State, I have to look towards the under in this game. I do not think that Juwan Howard or Devonte green will have a ton of luck against Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins for Sparty. I also think that State slows the pace down on this one. I think this game will be slow and buckets will come as a premium. Indiana’s last 2 games went over time and both should have went under the total.
Under 134 and lean to Indiana
Kentucky vs Tennessee -4 O/U 145
Do you think the Vols remembers how it felt to be blown out last game against the Wildcats and being taking out of the number 1 seed? I think they do. I also think that Kentucky is one of the best 5 teams in the nation when healthy. The Key is, “when healthy”. Now some people faded Kentucky when they lost big man Reid Travis to injury and Kentucky answered back anyways blowing out Auburn by 27 and coming back to beat Arkansas in the look ahead spot. Now the question is how will they get up for this game knowing that Tennessee is looking for revenge? Tennessee still hasn’t beaten at top 25 team but hasn’t had a great opportunity playing both LSU and Kentucky away. Tennessee is a ranking first in most shooting categories in the SEC and second only to Kentucky in defense. Kentucky has a huge rebounding and inside game advantage agains’t Tennessee when they had Travis in but now the playing field is now more evened out. Everything I said really leans Tennessee here but the issue for this spread to me is the question how Kentucky going to react being disrespected as a dog. Kentucky is 2-0 as a dog this year and 6-2 ATS as an away team. I have a slight lean to Tennessee here and lean to the over but I may not be a huge player in this matchup.
Lean Tennessee Lean over
Sunday 3/3
Michigan vs Maryland +1 O/U 129
I am really glad that this game is on Sunday and I will be focused on this spread when it comes out. Not a lot of info here since Michigan is playing Nebraska tonight but If they win with fashion as I expect them to do, I will have to look towards the Maryland side of things. This is a revenge spot for the Terrapins and they now have more of an understanding on how Michigan plays ball. Looking at Maryland they are pretty bipolar scoring 78 points per game at home and only 65 on the road. Michigan isn ‘t terrible on the road at 6-5 ATS but they have dropped some big games to Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State. I really do not want to over complicate this one so I am going to make it simple. Michigan just lost their top spot in the big 10 losing at home to Michigan State and will be looking ahead to revenging that in their last Big 10 game of the season. Michigan had their bounce back game against Nebraska so you do not have to worry about that motivation. This is a revenge spot for the Terrapins and this game certainly means more to them than to the Wolverines. I like Maryland up to -2.5 points
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
Getting closer to the madness! We first get into the Big 10 team rankings and then discuss 2 trends that have been money. Professional handicapper Brian Edwards @vegasbedwards comes back to discuss some SEC. We first talk about how these teams should be ranked. We then take a look at the NCAA men’s future’s market. Finally we get into some of the games from a large card this weekend and UFC 235!
NCAA: Rhode Island vs Dayton, LSU vs Alabama, Nevada vs Utah State, Michigan State vs Indiana, Kentucky vs Tennessee and Michigan vs Maryland
#UFC 235 Jon Jones vs Anthony Smith and more!
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There are two matches in the English Premier League and one in the Scotland Premiership League that offer three money lines that you can parlay for what appears to be a solid profit making play selection this afternoon. Act quickly as those matches are scheduled to start at 1:45 CST (my current location).
Arsenal and Man City are at the top of their tables in the English Premier League and face opponents who have some players likely missing today and are just simply outmatched. Arsenal is hosting Bournemouth who has not faired well against good competition on the road. Arsenal boasts a great 11-2-1 record this year in home games. Bournemouth is 3-0-10 on the road. Bournemouth is conceding 2.3 goals per game on the road this year and has awful away scoring form. Likewise, Man City owns the head to head against W. Ham and averages 2.7 goals per game at home. They are 13-0-1 at home this season.
The Rangers in Scotland have blown out Dundee in their last 4 matches and there is absolutely no reason that it shouldn’t happen again today. Dundee travels to the Rangers today having surrendered 2.1 goals per game on the season, and boasting miserable away form statistics. Conversely, Rangers average 2.2 goals per game at home and concede only 0.7 goals per game this year. I project an easy 2-0 or 3-0 victory here.
Parlay the money lines and you can get odds from -120 to -127 from the shops I have searched.
I have released this on Twitter as a 5u max play for my followers, and I urge you to take a look at this mid-day profitable play selection.
Follow me on Twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.
Tonight the Greek Freak brings his 1st place Bucks to Sacramento. I see a lot of value in the Kings here. They play well at home, 21-8-1 ATS a league best. Milwaukee will be playing their 2nd of a 5 game road trip. The Kings are in the midst of a playoff push and seem to be all in on the team effort. Vegas has continued to undervalue them nightly, hence the league best records ATS. Kings will not waste a game especially a home one. Kings actually put up comparable stats, and play similar ball to Milwaukee. I think they will put forth their best foot, Bucks get everyone’s best game nightly and are susceptible to an off night. Look for some value in Bucks 2H if they fall behind early. Kings +5.5
Take a trip with me to Seattle, Washington tonight and consider backing the short 3.5 point road favorite in Utah Valley University (19-8) as they face Seattle University (15-12). ATS trends support this play significantly. For UVU, they are covering the number with a record of 16-9 on the season, 8-4 in conference play, 5-0 L5, 8-2 L10, and 10-5 on the road. Conversely, while Seattle has cashed some tickets on the season (12-13), they are just 2-10 in conference play, 1-4 L5 and 2-8 the L10.
Trends, typically, are never enough to support a play for me. I took a look at both teams’ strength of schedule (SOS) and efficiency matrices on KenPom. UVU has the 71st ranked offensive efficiency (OE) compared to 246 for Seattle. What is more striking about these comparisons is the fact that Seattle’s meager 246th ranking comes against opponents whose defensive efficiency (DE) rank 313th in the country! UVU has faced opponents on average who rank 58 spots higher in KenPom’s SOS rating on the season than opponents which Seattle has played.
This time of the year, conference statistics are very important. In conference play, UVU’s offense scores at a rate of 112.9/100 possessions. They play a tempo that provides more possessions per game than Seattle, who is only scoring at a rate of 95.6/100 possessions. UVU has the 4th ranked defense in the conference, and the margins here are such that make me confident in UVU when asked this one question: Given these statistics, which team has a potential to play at or worse/better than their average production thus far? The answer is clearly UVU here, and with a 3.5 point spread, it is worth a play to me. UVU ranks first in the conference in 3pt %, 2pt %, FTA/FGA, effective FG%, and OE.
KenPom provides player states with offensive ratings. I like to look at the total numbers from the top 6 players in percentage of contribution. If the numbers are significantly different, I tend to feel more confident in the other statistics that favor my play. Here, the top six players for UVU outrank the top six from Seattle by 40 points. 10 or more to me is worth considering.
My blended power rating has UVU favored by 9 without home court factored in. How much home court do you give in a situation like this? That is up to you to decide, but is Seattle’s home court worth 4.5 points? I personally don’t bet on it having that much significance tonight.
The market reaction also supports this play. When I looked at the information provided by The Action app, it showed that 64% of the tickets are on UVU, but 80% of the money. I asked myself: How many members of the general public have their eyes set on this match up tonight? The fact that 80% of the money this early in the market is on UVU here but not an equivalent percentage of the pick percentage leads me to this conclusion: Early action is likely the sharp action here and the fact that more money than the ticket percentage has been laid can usually mean sharp action has laid a higher percentage of the money.
Play: Utah Valley University -3.5 (2 units)
Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.
Here we are at the end of February and there are many teams that have seem to clinch tournament birth but there are also plenty of teams to watch out for that still have a chance to dance. To find some of these bubble teams you do not have to look farther than the Big 10. Now people might say that Indiana doesn’t fit the bubble description, but with their large non-conference wins against Marquette and Louisville and win against Sparty, they still have a shot. Now Indiana has been a fade team for me but in this situation, they really need this game a lot more than Wisconsin. What has been consistent with the Hoosiers is their defense. At home the Hoosiers hold opponents to 61.3 points per game while Wisconsin only scores 65.9 on the road. Wisconsin themselves have the 6th best defense in the nation and second in the big 10 holding opponents to 61 points per game. Wisconsin plays the slowest pace in the big 10 at 63.5 possessions per game. Indiana only averages 62 points per game in conference and slowed their pace down in conference to from 66.6 possessions to 65.5 and hold the ball about a second longer than they did all year. Indiana is 11th in the big 10 in turnovers and desperation leads to turnovers which may make it easier for Wisconsin to control the pace. The under is the only play here and a lean to Indiana to cover the spread.
Under 126.5 and lean Indiana
TCU vs West Virginia +4 O/U 146.5
Here is another bubble team that I think we can find some value on. TCU is going to a very different looking West Virginia team that has 4 different starters in than they had during the non conference play due to injuries and disciplinary situations. Now the Mountaineers certainly played well at Baylor and was able to cover that spread but that was more of the exception due to Baylor’s best player Makai Mason going 0-7 from the field than the mean. Now I should not have to reiterate again that West Virginia is by far the worst team in the Big 12 but what should be obvious to everyone here is that TCU lost 3 out of their last 4 games without their second best player in Kouat Noi. Noi averages 15 points per game and 5 boards and is part of the reason that they beat Iowa State on Saturday by 3 points. TCU is a much better team when healthy and they like to play fast. TCU’s offense ranks 48th in the nation and their defense ranks 40th. West Virginia’s offense ranks 122nd in the nation and their defense ranks 137th respectively on Kenpom. Just looking at the conference game splits TCU wins 74-68. I like the bubble motivation here with the Frogs.
We are coming up on the 2nd NASCAR race of the season starting at 2PM this Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Atlanta is a 1.54 mile track with an old racing surface which will create a much different race compared to the Daytona 500 last week. NASCAR has a brand new rules package for 2019 that will be much different than what we have ever seen before. NASCAR has cut the horsepower down from 750 to 550. They also have made a few aerodynamic changes to create more downforce which will help the cars handle better. These changes will create more opportunities for passing and allow for better racing. It will put more emphasis on the driver forcing them to be more aggressive in order to make a pass.
Atlanta has one of the oldest surfaces of any track on the NASCAR circuit. Because of that, I will lean on some veterans this weekend because I think the experience will pay off.
With racing at Atlanta, the gambling strategy should be much different than last week at Daytona. Since you do not get as much value from picking the winner, the best strategy is head to head to head matchups. Just like in any other sport you try to lay as little juice as possible. I will continue to work with a $200 budget, we missed both races at Daytona so its time to get going in the right direction.
