Temple vs Belmont -3.5 O/U 155

We all know Belmont likes to run and they shoot very well at 47.8% away and scoring 85.5 points per game on the road while only giving up 75.4 on the road which is a nice varience. Now these are great numbers, but the only problem with them is that their best wins were against Lipscomb and Murray State. Temple is lucky to make the tournament as an at large ranking 76th on Kenpom but they only shoot 43.3 % on the road at 72.8 points per game giving up 71.8 but they had a harder road in the American Athletic Conference. What I like about Temple is that they are pretty tall and can guard well down low which is where Belmont seems to score a lot of their points. Belmont runs and likes to speed up the pace but Temple has done pretty well against those teams like Memphis and Tulsa. They also have played very well against another high powered offense in Houston winning one game and only losing the other by 7.

Lean Temple +3.5 and the over

Fairleigh Dickonson vs Prairieview A&M +2 O/U 149

These 2 teams were made for each other. Fairleigh plays offense well and Prairie plays a smidge of defense. Prairie View defends the 3 well but they haven’t played teams that shoot it well in the worst conference in basketball. Both teams give up more points on the road than they score. PV shoots 43.4% on the road and FD shoots 45.1%.

Lean FD -2 and lean under 149

Wednesday 3/20

NC Central vs N Dakota State -5.5 O/U 135

Another 2 teams made for each other. Both of them were bad on the shooting about 43.5 percent and allowing about 5.5 more points then they score. NC Central is by far the worst team in the tournament ranking 303rd on Kenpom while North Dakota State ranks an honest 199th. One thing that sticks out to me here is that North Dakota State has played a much harder schedule than NC Central. The Eagles haven’t even beaten a top 260 team. I don’t remember seeing a team this bad making the tournament. One thing NC Central has done is slow the pace down and play a little better D. The under is 5-0 their last 5 games. I think due to harder strength of schedule here and the I can see North Dakota State winning this game by a little more than 5.5

Lean ND State -5.5 and under 135

Arizona State vs St Johns +1 O/U 153

Man what is up with the Pac 12. ASU beat very tough Kansas, Mississippi State and Utah State teams early in the year only to fade out in Pac 12 play. They lost some bad ones to USC and Washington State at home. They certainly almost beat Oregon though in the Pac 12 tournament going to OT and I think that says something. St Johns on the other hand is lucky to be in with their best non-conference wins against VCU and Rutgers. The red storm gives about about 2.5 more points per game on the road than they score. ASU gives up about as much points as they score on the road at 74 points per game. Both of these teams play at a fast pace at 70.5 plays per game. The one thing that sticks out to me the most here is that ASU did great on Neutral floors this year beating Mississippi State and Utah State. I also like how ASU has been on a tear lately and only losing to Oregon since Feburary 14th going 6-8. Chris Mullin is a good coach but I have to go with Bobby Hurley here in this particular spot to try and save face for the Pac 12.

ASU -1 and lean over 153.

Seton Hall vs Villanova – 4 O/U 135

Well here we are in the Big East finals and my dark horse Xavier choked away their lead. Now we have a pretty good match-up here with a Seton Hall team that has been on fire lately and a Nova team with some young kids that finally have some more experience on their backs. Looking at the coaches you have to favor Jay Write here because his record and basketball style really speaks for itself. I must say that I am pretty impressed lately with Kevin Willard and how he fired this team up. The Pirates have been a very up and down team this year and if you profited off of them you must have caught them while they were hot. One thing that is for sure is that Seton Hall is very hot right now winning their last 4 games in a row and Myles Powell went off last night scoring 18 second half points. Seton hall is vulnerable to turning the ball over and hitting free throws but they play pretty fast at 70.3 possessions per game. Villanova is vulnerable to rebounding the ball but they certainly know how to shoot the 3 and when they are hot they can go on big runs. Nova plays slow but latly I am not sure if I want to get in front of either of these teams but I am certainly looking at the total here. 2 Hungry teams are playing each other for the Big East Championship and I can definitely see some points being scored here. Due to the poor over ATS records with these teams, the under has been SLAMMED here. I think it has been over-bought. Kenpom has this game to 140 with Nova by 4. Bart Torvik has it Nova by 3 going to 139. My numbers say higher and I have Nova winning 77-70 in a faster paced championship game. I tend to look at how teams shoot away when looking at these totals and Nova shoots at a higher percentage on the road at 45% than they do at home at 43%. Seton Hall shoots 44% at home and on the road. These teams by now are pretty acquainted with Madison Square Garden’s poor backdrops by now. The last time these teams played the total went to 144. Nova plays like the champions that they are and wins this game and covers the spread at the end.

Over 135 big and Nova -4 small