So this is the big 10 match-up that everyone has been waiting for. Today we were going to learn who the best team in the big 10 is. Michigan or Michigan State right? Well due to that unfortunate hand injury to Michigan State’s best all around player Nick Ward, we unfortunately may have to wait till the big 10 tournament to find that out. This definitely doesn’t mean we can’t bet this game though! Ward averages 15 points per game, 6.7 rebounds with a 61% FG percentage with Sparty so this will certainly prove to be a big loss. Michigan on the other hand is coming into this game healthy and ready to prove why they made it to the tournament last year. Looking at these 2 teams, they are pretty similar in power rating both being top 8 in the nations. Kenpom has these teams Michigan State 4 and Michigan 6. This line looks a little short to me due to the fact that State is losing a player of Ward’s caliber. I think this 4 point line would reflect a healthier Michigan State team with some home court advantage to the Wolverines. I personally would make it about Michigan -3.5 if both teams healthy. Another thing that hasn’t been factored in to this injury is that this total should have taken a bigger hit. Michigan State has lost some very good defense as well with Ward out but the Wolverine’s play slow enough to have his loss affect more on the offensive side of the ball. Michigan has the number 2 defense in the nation and the 303rd slowest pace of play. This line is a little short to me and I would make it 6. Michigan wins 66-60.
How poor is this Indiana team? I see them as the Oklahoma of last year that charged through their non-conference schedule only to fail miserably when conference play started. Since January 3rd, this Hoosier team is 3-10 ATS in conference play with only 1 away cover when they surprised Michigan State. Now they have to travel to an Iowa team who has the 3rd best offense in the big 10 coming off of a close loss at home vs Maryland. The best thing that Indiana has going for them is that Iowa has the worst defense in the big 10 so if they try they should be able to put some points up. Nobody has been more bipolar in the big 10 in the splits than the Hoosiers. They average 6 less points per game on the road vs at home and give up 13.5 more points per game on the Road. Iowa is a much better team at home allowing 3 less points and scoring 4 more at 82 points per game. This spread is going to be pretty big seeing that Indiana already lost to this team at home 77-72 at home this year but if you look at Indiana’s situation after losing that close game vs Purdue, one has to wonder where their minds are at. Looking at these splits and the situation, I think Iowa comes back big after their loss to Maryland and puts one on Indiana here. I have this game Iowa 80 – 69
Iowa -7 and lean over
Penn State vs Illinois -2 O/U 141
Penn State has been rejuvenated lately winning 3 of their last 5 big 10 games and putting up 95 points shooting 56 percent against an injured Nebraska team a few days back. Illinois on the other hand has much improved with coach Brad Underwood who has done a fantastic job with these very young kids. The 2 keys to this game is the spot and the home/road splits. When a team that isn’t a good shooting team plays out of their minds I like to fade them. Penn State is in that spot and probably also looking ahead to number 19 Maryland. The Illini is coming off of a good loss at a desperate Wisconsin team when they had the lead a large part of the game and covered the spread. Illinois has been on fire at home averaging 79.9 points per game and 46% from the field when their overall average is only 73.8 and 43% Their defense is also much better allowing only 72.3 points. Penn State on the other hand is equally bipolar only scoring 65.6 points on the road and shooting 40% when their average is 69.3 points per game. If you look in general on Kenpom, Penn State shows the better team but if you look just in conference play, Illinois ranks higher in both Adjusted offense and adjusted defense. I like Illinois here 75-50
Illinois -2
Virginia vs Louisville +5.5 O/U 123
Ever since that Duke collapse, this Louisville team has certainly not been the same only scoring 56 points home to Clemson and then losing at Syracuse only putting up 49 points. Now they will face the best defense that they have seen all year in Virginia and one must wonder if they are going to put up some points. Virginia on the other hand was able to get by North Carolina recently proving to still be among the top 2 teams in the ACC only without having an answer for Duke. Both of these teams rank number 1 and 2 respectively in conference play in defensive efficiency in the ACC. Louisville can be a weird team for sure beating teams like UNC and losing to teams like Pittsburgh but one thing that i have noticed is that they never seem to control the pace of their games yet they can seem to be able to adjust their play to either fast or slow. Looking at the home/road splits, Louisville seems to score about the same home or on the road but they play better defense at home while Virginia is a definitely a better home team then when they are on the road by about a 10 point margin. Virginia has not had a tough road schedule this year minus the Duke game and I think they may be tested against a desperate Cardinals team. I also like the fact that Louisville can hit free throws ranking number 1 in the SEC. This is very important in a low scoring game. I’ll take the points. I have this game 63-62 Virginia winning by 1.
Louisville +5.5
West Virginia vs Baylor – 12 O/U 142
Well here are 2 teams that both recently had some player issues. Baylor lost 3 out of 4 games a few weeks back until getting Makai Mason back and shocking Iowa State at home this Tuesday. West Virginia ever since suspending 2 starters Esa Ahmad and Wesley Harris hasn’t scored over 53 points and lost 4 games in row by blowouts. When healthy I think Baylor is a top 3 Big 12 teams with nice wins against Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Iowa State ranks number 1 in offense in the Big 12 and is getting healthier. I think there is also a good chance that their 3rd best player King McClure comes back whom is also their best 3 point shooter. West Virginia on the other hand ranks almost last in every category in the Big 12 and I think they have cashed their season. I am going to keep fading West Virginia at least until I lose and look at the under
Baylor -12 and lean under
Duke vs Syracuse +5 O/U 145
This is a strange one due to Zion being out, a revenge spot for Duke and the tragic thing that happened to Jim Boeheim killing a man with his car on the highway. I do not think that Duke knows how to play with Zion all that well. Lean Syracuse here because the kids may rally around their coach but wait for news about injuries.
Lean Syracuse +5
Ohio State vs Maryland -7 O/U 130
So this is a road revenge spot here for Ohio State but how can they they be trusted here when they have only won 1 true away game in conference against a bad Indiana team. You are going to see a healthy spread here of 7 or 8 points in favor for Maryland but I am not so sure that I want to lay that kind of number even though Ohio State is only 6-10 ATS after a win. Maryland finally got their big road victory against a ranked Iowa team and this could be a flat spot for them. One thing that I can count on is the fact that both of these team have had some huge defensive performances and both teams play slow and have top 20 defenses in the nation. Ohio State also somehow allows 3 less points per game on the road then they do at home at 62. I think due to these teams recent wins, it may not be a bad idea to check out the under as long as it is over 128 points or so. Ohio State unders in conference are 9-5-1 and Maryland in conference unders are 10-6.
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a fantastic show for the weekend! We first get into some college basketball news as well as some big 10 rankings. Kiev then goes into a few quick games and some Big 10 total trends. Professional handicapper Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets from Boydsbets.com comes in to bring us some sports betting knowledge! We first talk about if key numbers affect college basketball betting. We then take a look at the NCAA men’s future’s market. Finally we get into some of the games from a huge card this weekend.
NCAA: Kent State vs Buffalo, Indiana vs Iowa, Ohio State vs Maryland, Virginia vs Louisville, Penn State vs Illinois and West Virginia vs Baylor, Duke vs Syracuse!
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It’s finally here! UNC vs Duke baby (as Dicki V would say)! If you are a true college basketball fan you are watching this amazing game tonight! Now one can easily look at this line and make an argument that the Tar Heels are being disrespected here. Rivalries are not supposed to have almost double digit spreads like this so everyone’s first inclination is to bet the dog. It is true that in many years past that these games have been very close and since 1950, North Carolina has scored 13,581 points to Duke’s 13,559. Only a 22 point difference there! I am actually going to pump the breaks on this way of thinking here. When you are looking at rivalries it is also very important to look at what these teams are today. After all, isn’t the New England Patriots rivals with the New York Jets? How has that match-up been working out lately? When you look at these 2 teams you have Duke who is better in nearly every offensive and defensive category to North Carolina’s numbers. The only place that the Tar Heels have an advantage is in 3 point land where they rank 19th in the country at 38.6% while duke ranks 305th in the country at 31.3%. We can look at this 2 different ways. You can say, “If North Carolina can come in to Cameron Indoor Arena and rain 3s on Duke, they can easily win this game” Duke doesn’t really defend the 3 that well either ranking only 138th in the nation. The other way that you can look at this is to say, “even though Duke is terrible at 3s, their offense still ranks 2nd in the nation and because this is a home game for them, they may be able to hit some 3s and blow this team out like they have in the recent past vs Virginia!” The issues that lie with North Carolina is that they do not seem to get to the free throw line enough and they tend to turn the ball over which doesn’t bode well against a Duke defense who is number 1 in the nation in steals. Now North Carolina has certainly improved their game from that bad start to the season when they lost to Michigan and they now are probably the third best team in this conference slightly behind Virginia. I ran the numbers through my algorithm 2 different ways. Using numbers from the full year, I have Duke winning this game 94-83 or an 11 point spread. Running conference only numbers I have Duke winning this game 87 – 81 meaning a 6 point spread. Running just pure home/road splits you get 80.3 to 74.2. If you blend this all together you get a spread of Duke winning by about 7.5 points. I personally have this game Duke winning 90.5 -82.5. Not a ton of value for me at +or-9 but I do slighly think that this game goes over the total of 165 due to the fact that these are the best offenses and fastest playing teams in the nation. As long as UNC can hang most of this game you will see a ton of dribble drives through the lane and many whistles from the zebras. My buy price for Duke is at -7 and my buy price for UNC is at +11. Let’s face it, If you are a sports better watching this game tonight then I do not think that this is one of your premium locks of the week being that this line is so sharp. At the same time, it may be a better option to live bet this by getting from a good idea of the pace of this game right from the get go.
Duke over 78 1st half and over 165 full game. Both small plays and it may be better to look at the pace and bet this one live.
Ole Miss is 7-1 ATS on the road since November 16th. Looking at these teams there is 2 obvious things that stick out to me. South Carolina will not be making the NCAA tournament at 13-12 with no top 50 non-conference wins while Ole miss is currently in but kinda on the bubble since their non-conference schedule was weak and with only 1 top 50 win against Baylor. Now the Gamecocks have had some good wins in the SEC upsetting the likes of Auburn recently and Mississippi State and Florida, but this team kinda went into a downswing when they lost a few role players hurting their bench depth. The Gamecocks run with mainly 7 guys now, and for their fast style of play, it sometimes proves to be detrimental to the end of the game when they are gassed. Looking at the numbers, you can see that Mississippi is an above average SEC Team who shoots extremely well from the free throw line and solid everywhere else. The main problem with South Carolina is that they are sloppy and turn the ball over 20% of their possessions. I do like Ole Miss here from a motivational angle but the only caveat is that South Carolina is the best 3 point shooting team in the SEC and Ole Miss has the worst 3 point defense. On the other hand the Gamecocks rank almost dead last in the SEC in 2 point percentage and free throw percentage so Mississippi should be able to cheat up a bit in defense (if I was the coach, I would do that anyways). Being that wins are so important to the Rebels here, I have to think they will step up their perimeter defense here but just in case a small play to the over may not hurt if South Carolina comes out raining 3s on fire. This is also a revenge game for the Rebels when the Gamecocks took them out of the SEC tournament last year.
Ole Miss -2 bigger and over 148.5 smaller
Ohio vs Buffalo – 18 O/U 154
If it was up to me, this game wouldn’t even make it on ESPN Plus tonight as far as quality basketball is concerned but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t any good betting angles to take advantage upon here. Buffalo had a few hick-ups in the Mac losing to Northern Illinois and Bowling green. Now at this point they are still at least an at large 5 seed being at 25th in the AP poll but that doesn’t mean they are guaranteed in if they slip up by losing another bad game or 2 and also not winning their conference tournament. Buffalo didn’t have a tough non-conference schedule and with Syracuse going down hill, that win isn’t looking as good these days. Now make no doubt about it, the Bulls are a top 25 team but they certainly need some style points to up their stats when it comes to seeding. No better time and place to pick on a team then at home tonight vs the Ohio Bobcats. The Bobcats are the worst team in their division in the Mac and when you look at their 316th ranked offense you really do not have to ask why. The Bobcats defense hasn’t been anything to write home about either ranking 9th in the MAC. After losing 5 games in a row it really doesn’t show any reason for motivation for Ohio to be playing an away game against a team that will destroy them like Buffalo and I am betting that they have given up on their season. The last time Ohio faced a top 54 team it was against Toledo with Ohio losing by 23 points. The next best team that they faced was way back in January against Bowling green who shows the 84th best team and Ohio lost by 19 points. The Bobcats now face the fastest playing team that they have seen all year in a top 25 Buffalo squad who is going to boat race them without even batting an eyelash and without Ohio giving a damn.
If you have followed my articles, you’ve noticed that I like to look for value plays in the lower tier conference matchups. Tonight, I find one with Bethune Cookman on the road at Savannah State.
Only three teams in the country have worse deficiency ratings than Savannah State. Likewise, their offensive style of play is very difficult to watch. They jack up threes on 53% of their possessions, but shoot 29% from 3. Savannah State’s average possession length is 13.1 seconds, which is ranked the fasted tempo in the country. What does all of that translate to: horrible shot efficiency, nobody in place to battle for offensive rebounding, and wasted possessions (unless of course they are shooting lights out – not likely).
Bethune Cookman, while they may not be an offensive juggernaut, doesn’t have to do much here. They have clear statistical advantages in effective FG%, offensive efficiency, and even more so, defensive efficiency. They rebound at a significantly higher rate than does Savannah State on both ends of the floor, which is really important when you think of horrible shot taking on both sides.
I like to use KenPom’s Player Ratings to compare at least the top 6 players in possession %. The differential in player ratings across those top 6 players is 23.3 points in favor of Bethune-Cookman, and they have an even bigger advantage further down the bench.
Currently the line sits at -2. The money line, however, is -130 which I believe has value on the dollar.
Play: Bethune Cookman Money Line -130
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Time to turn em loose and get the Monster Energy Cup Series underway. Unlike most sports we’re going to start with the biggest of them all. Today is all about picking winner, match ups are too iffy, a driver can go from 2nd to 20th in a lap or get caught in a wreck like it’s nothing. So your best option is to properly place your money on a few different drivers, because anybody could win and we could finish with less than half the field so you want numbers. Im going to spread my budget accordingly.
I’m going to work with $200 Chase Elliott #9 (+900) $50 to win $450 Kyle Busch #18 (+1000) $40 to win $400 Ryan Blaney #12 (+1300) $40 to win $520 Kurt Busch #1 (+2300) $25 to win $575 Kyle Larson #42 (+3300) $25 to win $825 Matt Dibenedetto #95 (+4500) $20 to win $900
Draft Kings line up is as follows: (2) Brad Kaseolwski (6) Ryan Newman (12) Ryan Blaney (18) Kyle Busch (20) Erik Jones (27) Casey Mears
Ok, have people finally gotten off of the hype train for Indiana? That’s a big NOOOOPE for the reason that they just beat Michigan State on the road in overtime. Due to that terrible performance from State, this line may be inflated a bit. Now the Hoosiers did great in the non conference beating teams at home like Marquette and Louisville but on the road this team has been terrible. Indiana is 2-9 ATS since Christmas and I think this may be a good spot for Minnesota who had a tough run of 4 losses when 3 of them where 3 of them were away games against top 40 opponents. The Gophers just lost to a very desperate Nebraska team and will be looking to bounce back at home. I also love the emergence of Freshman Center Daniel Oturu averaging 11 points and 7.3 rebounds per game. The Gophers are 7-7 ATS at home but 8-6 in conference games. Looking at Kenpom, the Gophers have better in conference numbers than Indiana and the home road splits for these teams are out of this world having the Gophers winng by 7.6 points.
Minnesota -3 BIG all the way up to -5.5
West Virginia vs Kansas -17 O/U 148
What could be worse than being West Virginia right now. Well I suppose you could be Kansas who is a team that had very high aspirations of being in the top 4 only to be sinking down to 16 due to so many of your players out this year for various reasons. This game is really a good spot for Kansas to get some revenge off of a really bad loss against a very bad team but unfortunately the spread will already be factoring in the revenge spot. West Virginia is a terrible road team with 0 road wins. They rank only 98th in offensive efficiency and 140th in defense. The Mountaineers rank dead last in almost every category that matter in Big 12 play. Kansas on the other hand is still at least a top 4 big 12 team who is going to the tournament no matter what happens. The huge thing here to me is that West Virginia just lost 2 key starters in Esa Ahmad and Wesley Harris for the rest of the season for disciplinary reasons. These losses are even worse than what Kansas had to bear and West Virginia will basically be running on fumes. Now I know sometimes when this happens it tends to motivate the younger kids into playing well the very next game but in this situation, Kansas will be looking for revenge and should easily be able to shut down this young team. I know that Kansas has been a huge over team this year at 15-9-1 ATS but in this situation, I do not know that West Virginia will even be able to score enough points to contribute to that. Instead I think that Kansas pulls it together and rolls this team. I like Kansas up to 21 points here.
Kansas -17
Oklahoma vs TCU -4 O/U 142
The Sooners have been an against the spread darling this year at 16-6-3 flying under the radar and cashing many tickets. TCU hasn’t been too shabby either at 13-11. Even with the Sooners great ATS record they still somehow lost the last 5 games in a row. These team met earlier this year in Oklahoma with the Sooners winning 76-74. Can TCU get some home court revenge here? Well the Sooners are 3-0-2 at an away underdog so this might be easier said than done. A glaring thing to me in this game is that both TCU and Oklahoma tend to play better when they pick up the pace. Both teams average about 69 plays per game which is pretty average in the NCAA but you also have to look at the fact that the Big 12 is one of the slowest pace conferences and some of the teams that they have faced has skewed this number down a bit. Teams like Texas Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Texas. The reality of the fact is that I think both teams would rather play some higher paced basketball like you have seen when both teams played West Virginia and actually each other. Because of this I am going to play the over 142 here and I like it up to 146.
Over 142
Iowa State vs Kansas State -2 O/U 129
Iowa state will be visiting Manhattan Kansas for some road revenge here. The Cyclones are coming off of a nasty loss to TCU at home but this team continues to be ranked high and are tied for 3rd place in the big 12. Kenpom ranks Iowa State as the 15th best team and they rank Kansas State as the 27th best team. Kansas State ranks terrible on Offense at 115th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency on kenpom but as we know that number includes the many games that they Wildcats were without Dean Wade. I think the best thing to handicap this game is too look at the conference performances here. Kansas State has the 5th best offense in the big 12 and the 2nd best defensive efficiency while the Cyclones rank 3rd in both categories. I think these teams are pretty close to equal when looking at those rankings. Both teams have faced pretty similiar schedules. The key to this game for the WIldcats is if they can once again stop Marial Shayok from scoring deep into the double digits and looking at their defense I think that they can and will. I love being on a first place team that isn’t used to being there and is embracing their position with max effort each game. K state is 8-1 ATS their last 9 games. I like K state all the way to 4.5
Kansas State -2
Tennessee vs Kentucky -3 O/U 146
Well this game really set up well for Kentucky. They are coming off a very tough last second loss off of a very controversial non-call of offensive goal tending on LSU that for some god awful reason is not reviewable. That and the extra day of rest should give them extra motivation and ability to try and put one on Tennessee at home. Well this is easier said than done and I have seen these situations before. Even with supreme motivation, Kentucky will not be facing their toughest opponent since Duke. Now I think that there may not be a better team in the paint then the Wildcats. This team is top 3 in the nation in rebounding, top 18 in offense and top 9 in defense but they happen to lack 3 things that Tennessee has to win this game. Kentucky does not defend the 3 well only ranking 234th in the nation while Tennessee shoots the three the second best percentage in the SEC. The Wildcats tend to turn the ball over only ranking 159th in turnover percentage while the Vols ranks 26th. Finally and most importantly, Tennessee is much more experienced with upper classman like Senior Admiral Schofield, Junior Grant Williams and Junior Jordan Bone who have all been in these big spots before. Tennessee is second in Field Goal percentage in the nation at 51.3% and are an amazing 50.8% on the road. Actually for some reason Tennessee is statistically better on the road than at home on offense averaging 87 points per game on the road while Kentucky as usual better at home on defense allowing 61 points per game. The thing that makes me nervous about the Tennessee side is that they have not faced a top 30 team since beat Gonzaga on December 9th! Kentucky has faced 7 top 30 teams since then and only lost to LSU. What is crazy to me is that Tennessee allows only 63 points per game at home but they also allow a whopping 77 points per game on the road. The Cats are 7-7 ATS this year at home while the Vols are an amazing 5-1 ATS on the road. I think that the only way that I can look at this game is the over if it is less than 148
I encourage you to take a look at a first half ATS play in the St. Joe’s Davidson matchup. Currently, Davidson is a 10 point favorite and the first half line has them favored by 5.5.
St. Joe’s comes into conference play ranking 12th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Davidson has the 3rd ranked offensive efficiency in the conference and ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency. This alone should make Davidson look attractive. Add to those mismatches the fact that St. Joe’s inefficient offense has 5th fasted average possession length (tempo) and Davidson ranking 12th in the same category, I think you have a great combination of formulas that translates to St. Joe’s getting minimal FG opportunities, not converting them, and being unable to stop Davidson from scoring.
Comparing tempo with offensive efficiency isn’t the end of the handicap here. I took a look at raw scoring numbers in the first half and compared them from a road/home split perspective. St. Joe’s averages 30 points on the road in the first half. Davidson holds opponents to 30 points at home in the first half. Statistically similar numbers gains my confidence in their predictability. Conversely, St. Joe’s is surrendering 39 ppg on the road, and Davidson is averaging 37 ppg at home. Add the efficiency and tempo statistics to these stats, I believe there is a reason to predict that Davidson is likely to score near or higher than St. Joe’s defensive road points against. Averaging the two, we have a potential that Davidson is up by around 8 points at the half, making the 5.5 number attractive.
I like the first half play tonight because I think that Davidson has the right combination to get up early in this game. Second half adjustments, or big leads turning into minimal motivation, mixed with a Friday night low-key game, the first half appears more attractive to me than the full game.
PLAY: Davidson -5.5 First Half
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Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a fantastic show for the weekend! We first start with Kiev’s big 10 rankings. Professional host and handicapper from Wagertalk.com and @cbssportshq Kelly Stewart @kellyinvegas is back for some weekend action! We first talk a little bit about that tough beat she had on a 3 leg moneyline dog parlay that was going to hit up until the very last seconds of the Duke/Louisville game. We also discuss Kelly’s part in the new Showtime docuseries called “Action” coming out this spring on March 24th during #marchmadness! Then we get into Kelly’s Alma-mater K-State and their Big 12 dominance this year. Finally we get into some of the games from a huge card this weekend. Kiev then ends the show with his own ugly dog money-line parlay for Saturday. Have a great weekend everyone!
NCAA: Buffalo vs Toledo, Oklahoma vs TCU, Indiana vs Minnesota, Iowa State vs Kansas State, West Virginia vs Kansas and Tennessee vs Kentucky!
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