Tuesday was not great. We put a lot of eggs in one basket –
and that basket fell over. In the future, we’ll likely be trying to spread it
out a bit more.
Last night we released one in-game play that, in all
honesty, should have hit. But it didn’t. Such is life!
Chicago continues to hit the OVER. But, I’m
telling you, the team is playing differently. The D is playing differently. Don’t
be surprised if they regress back towards a 50/50 in the O/U for the rest of
the year.
New Jersey beat up on Edmonton a night after
being beat up on by Calgary in the third. Unfortunately, we were on the wrong
end of that one. The Devils are one of the more interesting “bad teams” in the
league at the moment.
Today’s Slate
Pittsburgh Penguins @
Buffalo Sabres – The Pens go to frosty upstate New York to battle the
Sabres tonight. This matchup is 3-1-1 to the OVER in the last five meetings
between the two. Casey DeSmith is expected to start for Pittsburgh, and he has
given up 19 goals in his last four starts. Prior to these previous two games,
Buffalo had hit seven goals or more in seven straight games. This should be
action packed in Buffalo. Take the OVER.
Buffalo/Pittsburgh
OVER 6.5 (+105) 2units
St. Louis Blues @
Ottawa Senators – St. Louis is one of the best road teams in the league. I
mentioned in a previous newsletter that we should be on the lookout for spots
they’re undervalued because they’re on the road. It may not seem like it, but
this one of those spots. Playing a very weak Sens team, St. Louis can feel the
pressure of the Stars two points back. The Blues post an 19-11-5 road record,
compared to the Sens, who are just 14-16-4 at home. Ottawa is only 5-7-1
against the Central, and the Blues are an amazing 9-3 against one of the most
competitive divisions in the league. Nilsson has not been exceptional for
Ottawa, to say the least, and he draws the start here. Just like a pick below,
the ML is too juiced so get the other two instead. 165 is a little more than I
like to lay with a road team, but this spot is too good.
St. Louis -1.5 (+103)
2units
St. Louis 3-Way ML (-165) 3units
Anaheim Ducks @ Arizona
Coyotes – Arizona returns home after going 1-1 on their brief road trip.
They return to Gila River Arena where, before the trip, they went 6-1 on their
longest homestand of the season. Their only loss? To the Ducks. They’re looking
for revenge and badly need to continue their winning ways. Anaheim is 2-9 in
their last 11 on the road, and look pretty pitiful, especially during their
home loss to the Kings the other night. Arizona plays a lot of one goal games,
so beware of the spread and the three-way, but pound the ML.
Arizona ML (-140) 3units
Florida Panthers @ San
Jose Sharks – The Panthers go into San Jose to face the second-best home team
in the league. The Sharks have won six in a row, and Florida has lost their
last four road games. Rookie Sam Monetmbeault is expected to start for the
Panthers. He has been great in his last two starts after allowing four goals in
his first career NHL start. But all three games were at home. This is his first
career road start, and boy did he get
a tough draw. SAP Center is an incredibly difficult place for a visiting team
to play. Florida has lost all five road games against the Pacific division this
year, including bad losses in Arizona, Edmonton, and a terrible 5-1 loss at
Rogers Arena against the Canucks. Don’t expect anything different. Just like
the Blues, the ML is too juiced, so look three-way and spread.
San Jose -1.5 (+130)
2units
San Jose 3-Way ML (-140) 3units
Bonus Pick: Take
Tampa Bay and Nashville ML parlay for 1unit at -107.
The in-game plays are starting to show profitability, so get
at it on twitter (@jksportsbets). Looking forward to the slate tonight!
After a rocky start to March we’re gaining some steam, going
10-3 in our last 13 (including in-game plays on Twitter) for a profit of over
20units. After a 4-2 day yesterday where we profited over 8units, we’re looking
for more tonight!
Chicago beat the Coyotes 7-1 last night. I
suppose the ‘Hawks realized that Arizona wouldn’t get them to hit that OVER
mark, so they did it themselves.
On that note, I’ve been interested in Arizona
this year because I’ve felt that they’re not nearly as good as their record
indicates. Look for opportunities where they’re overvalued.
Toronto continues to under impress, losing 6-2
at home to Tampa. Yes, the Lightning are great, but others have shown to be
able to get under their skin, especially at home. To be a contender, you have
to beat Tampa Bay. The Leafs never looked like they were in that game.
Today’s Slate
Dallas Stars @ Buffalo
Sabres – Yes, Buffalo is an over team. They have a 37-28-3 record this
season in O/U. But the real shocker is on the visitors. Dallas is 7-22-5 to the
UNDER this year on the road. That means they win the under just shy of 65% of
the time. To put that in perspective, it’s nearly the exact same percentage
that the ‘Hawks have hit the over this year. Bishop is in goal for the Stars
tonight, and he’s only given up one goal in his last three starts combined. Meanwhile, for the Sabres,
Carter Hutton is expected to start, and he has a nearly one goal per game better GAA at home than on the road. We
have to take the UNDER here.
Buffalo/Dallas UNDER
5.5 (-125) 3units
Boston Bruins @
Columbus Blue Jackets – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or in our case, if
it keeps hitting, don’t stop flooding it. I may well be on the “Fade Columbus”
train for the rest of the year. But the numbers back the theory. Tonight, the
Bruins come into Columbus, and while the Bruins haven’t been the best road team (four wins above .500), Columbus
has the third-worst home record in
the Eastern Conference, behind only Detroit and Ottawa. Ouch. Remember a play
last night with a team that was four games plus .500 on the road? The Jackets
lost last night in New York (good for us) and while the score seemed close, the
game was not. One of the more interesting aspects of this game is that, during
this season, when Columbus has lost the night before and play again the
following night they have lost three in a row of that back leg and are 1-4 on
the season. Korpisalo is starting for Columbus, and there are some interesting
facts behind his numbers. He has lost his last five games, posts his worst SV
and GAA against the Atlantic Division as any division, and posts worse stats at
home than on the road (we’ve exploited this before). And the B’s, well, they
fell to Pittsburgh in a battle on Sunday to end a six game winning streak. This
is the first meeting between these teams this year, and they’re set to meet
three times in the final 15 games. Boston has been red hot, and on two days
rest against a tired and weakened Blue Jackets team, let’s take the traditional
trifecta tonight, with a slight
modification in unit allotment.
Boston -1.5 (+245) 2units
Boston 3-Way ML (+145) 3units
Boston ML (-105) 3units
New Jersey Devils @
Calgary Flames – In a battle of (one of the) worst versus (one of the) best,
where the best gets to play at home, it makes sense to see a near 400 ML on the
Flames as favorites. We usually stay far away from games where the -1.5 sits
with juice, but the O/U looks good here. The Devils are an UNDER team, and
while Calgary was an over team for a while, they have gone under in two of the
last three and are 6-2-1 to the under in their last nine. Meanwhile, New Jersey
is 5-1-1 in their seven to the under. Meanwhile, when the total is at exactly
six, New Jersey is 6-2-1 to the under in the last nine (same as above with the
Flames) and Calgary is 3-1-1 to the under in their last five. MacKenzie
Blackwood is expected to Start for the Devils, and the 22-year old has posted
very respectable numbers in his limited starts this year, with a .932 SV and
2.23 GAA. Let’s take the UNDER here.
Calgary/New Jersey
UNDER 6 (+107) 3units
That’s all I got for now. I feel confident tonight, and there
should be some interesting in-game situations so make sure you follow on
twitter (@jksportsbets), as I often release in-game plays that have shown to be
very profitable. Let’s get at it!
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
Rolling right into March Madness and it is now time to break down these conference tournaments! We first talk a little about some NFL news and then get into the final Big 10 Rankings. Kiev then gets into how he likes to bet the conference tournaments and what he looks for in teams. We then talk about our conference tournament plays and values. Finally Dan Everett @dedgesportpicks comes in to break down the Big East and more!
NCAA conference tournaments: The MAC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, ACC, Big East, AAC, and A10.
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Did you finish the season well? Is the team hot or not? Is there a reason why you are not and you have value?
More value on Bubble teams to win (not necessarily against the spread) .
Teams with great NBA type players.
The Big East
To me the Big east is the most up in the air conference. Marquette and Nova are the only for sure teams in the NCAA tournament while Seton Hall and Creighton might have some slight work to do. The problem with Marquette and Nova is that they have really come down to earth and have had a terrible finish to their season losing most of their games the last 3 week. Looking at the odds, I think this may be the most wide open tournament as far as what could happen. Due to the even teams, I think the value is on the Hottest team with the best odds which is Xavier at+ 900 or 9-1. Now you can argue that a money line rollover is better than 9-1 but that is ONLY if they play both Nova and Marquette on the bottom. At that case a money line rollover is worth about 15-1. If Nova loses to Providence or Butler than the ML rollover is worth a MAX 9-1 if they play Marquette at the championship level and even less if not. Another option that I may employ is doing a Money Line rollover for Marquette on the bottom while playing Xavier 9-1 on top.
Xavier 9-1 and Marquette ML rollover
The American Athletic Conference
Houston is going to win this but definitely not worth the
+125. The team that I really do not
like is Cincinnati at +250. They have
not finished well and are in the big dance anyways. If you want to get cute, you could also bet
Temple at +725 or Wichita State at +1700 being that they won’t have to play Houston
until that final game but if you do this you may have to go harder on the ML
rollover with Houston. I would favor
the Wichita State line personally, but they have a tough road.
Houston ML rollover and small on Wichita State
ACC Tournament
Not enough info here for me. North Carolina is probably my favorite team
here but certainly not at +350. If Zion
is in they will be dogs against Duke and also against Virginia at the end meaning
you could get more like an 9.5-1 value on the ML rollover and if Zion is out
and Duke is more of a pickem game then you can still get about 5-1 worst case. Duke is now also without Marquis Bolden so
there is now even more problems there. Bolden
was their Center and very important to stop the inside game. Not a ton of room to hedge that +350 either
against Virginia. Virginia +125 makes no sense when Duke is still
the favorite to win the NCAA championship? What does that tell you? Does duke not care about the ACC
tournament? Do the odds makers think
the officials will favor Duke again like in 2015? Who knows but the only potential play is UNC
ML rollover or pass.
UNC ML Rollover
The Pac 12 Tournament
Here is a league that has been a huge disappointment in basketball and really all major sports the last few years. The odds to win this ugly ass tournament are absolutely terrible. You have the conference’s top team in Washington that everyone had penciled in as an at large a few weeks back is now a bubble team with no guarantees of tournament birth. The Pac 12 may only have 1 team in the big dance!!! The motivation should be high for all teams here but the odds do not match up. Colorado may be the hottest team but they are only a 5 seed meaning they have to start on Wednesday. The Buffalos are also in the same side of the bracket as Washington and they only have 6-1 odds to win it all. Garbage. The second hottest team is Oregon winning their last 4 games in a row and even though they are away from Washington in this bracket, they still only have +300 or 3-1 to win this thing and they also start on Wednesday. The only semblance of value that I can find is Utah being at 12-1 here because the are the 4 seed who would start Thursday and they finished off the season well at home. Utah also has the best away ATS record at 7-4 but can you really trust this team who has the worst D in the pac 12? The problem is that they will not be favored in any of their games so they could get 15-1 or 18-1 on a ML rollover. This tournament looks ugly to me and I think if you want to do anything, it would be Washington ML rollover or nothing. Maybe the fact that Washington is now a bubble team could help motivate them.
Washington ML rollover and maybe a smaller ML rollover on Utah with a spread bet to cover it.
The Big 12 Tournament
Ok, so this conference is an absolute mess. You have a clear favorite in Texas Tech at +130. I agree with the fact that they should be favorites but I do not agree with the line. Kansas State is next at +350 but how confident can you be with that number? The big problem with the Big 12 is that you have 4 bubble teams that need these wins much more than the 2 favorites. Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor and Texas all need runs here which makes them very dangerous. We also have to look at the best offense in this division in Iowa state as only a 5 seed because they have a decent shot at winning it. The biggest question to me is if Kansas is going to show up? Will not winning the regular season for the first time in 14 years motivate this team? I think there is way to many unpredictable outcomes here and the best thing to do is stay away. Maybe bet the bubble teams and or Kansas.
Stay Away
The SEC Tournament
It’s pretty crazy seeing everything that happened to LSU with Will Wade being suspended indefinitely. They are the top seed in this tournament and have by far the easiest bracket. It is also weird seeing South Carolina getting the 4 seed and the double bye over Auburn. I do not think even with coach Franks that the gamecocks can make it past this Auburn team without AJ Lawson. The bottom of this bracket is absolutely brutal with Mississippi State, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky. You have 2 of the best teams there with the 5th best in Miss State and probably the 7th best team with Ole Miss. The top of the bracket you have coach-less LSU who is the 3rd best team, Auburn who is the 4th best and I would say Florida is the 6th best and that is where you may find some value. Don’t get me wrong because I think Kentucky wins this thing as long as Reid Travis is playing but Florida definitely has the easiest rout with the best odds. Florida is 15-1 to win this thing but you can get up to 28-1 as long as they Play LSU after Arkansas (which they would have to play anyways) Auburn instead of SC, and Kentucky or Tennessee in the finals. Florida has the best away ATS in the SEC and they have already beaten LSU on the road. I am not crazy about betting this bracket but I would definitely like a ML rollover on Florida and possibly Kentucky and hope that they meet in the Finals.
ML Rollover on Florida small and large on Kentucky if Travis
is back. If Travis not back then Tennessee
isn’t the worst ML rollover play due to their high away shooting percentage.
The Atlantic 10 Tournament
So this division is interesting because VCU is for sure in due to their Texas and Temple non-conference wins. Whenever a smaller conference has an at-large that is in for sure, I love to look at the other teams fighting their asses off for tournament birth plus you will not get much value for VCU at-140 . The next obvious one to me is the 2nd seed Davidson at +400. Now it is either going to be them or Dayton at +375 to make the championship game. Dayton beat Davidson this year at their house but Davidson has the better conference record. Dayton has had the overall harder schedule and is ranked higher on Kenpom so that is why you see their odds a little bit better to win, but I like that Davidson is taller than Dayton and their coach Bob McKillop has more experience here. The other play that I have is a longer shot on the top of the bracket in Rhode Island. I like the fact that they beat VCU already once this year and love how they finished their season winning their last 4 games. I also love their point guard Jeff Dowtin and I think he has the capability of taking over games. Rhode Island can also choke and lose to some bad teams but I really like the fact that VCU has less to play for here and if Rhode Island wins that game, then they play a St Bonaventure team that they had already beaten once this year. 30-1 odds looks pretty tasty to me.
Rhode Island 30-1 and Davidson 4-1
The Big 10 Tournament
Well this is a very interesting bracket this year. There is a definite separation between the best 2 teams over the rest but I also think that there are 2 or 3 teams here that can beat anyone when on or lose to anybody when off. Those teams are Wisconsin, Iowa and Indiana. Indiana at 60-1 and Iowa at 60 to 1 definitely have the most value in this bracket at those huge numbers. If I was going to make a case for Indiana, I can easily say they are on the same side as Michigan State whom they defeated twice and Wisconsin whom they only played once and defeated at home in overtime. The problem with me on this is that I think that Indiana happened to play State and Sconnie when they were at their coldest while Indiana was pretty much playing for their lives. I think you are counting your blessings if you think Izzo will lose to a team like Indiana 3 times in a row. Having said that I really do not have a problem with you betting those huge 60-1 odds for the reasons that I previously stated as well as the fact that Indiana is definitely the hottest team in the big 10. Iowa on the other hand at 60-1 is on the harder side of the bracket being that they would have to beat number 3 Michigan and number 2 Purdue in order to just get to the championship game but what I like about Iowa is that they have the 3rd best offense in the big 10 and have proven that they can hit clutch shots with Bohannon. I also like the fact that they beat Michigan once this year and the Wolverines are a little injured with Matthews being questionable. Now if Minnesota can play anything like they did at home vs Purdue a week ago, then there is a small shot that Iowas road can get a little easier and then you can most likely hedge after the Michigan game. To be completely honest this scenario is still kind of a long shot so I think that taking a money line rollover with Wisconsin or Michigan State at the top of the bracket for twice the money that you put on Iowa would make some sense to help hedge out of that one. I am personally going to pick of course play Wisconsin because you can make more money with it should they beat Maryland and Michigan State. I also don’t have a problem playing on the 4th best defense in all of the nation on Kenpom and the 1st best defense in the big 10. I also know that Wisconsin last year played State very tough and they may be able to finally get one past them. I do not have a problem if you play State instead but I am looking for upside and bang for my buck and who knows, maybe Michigan State does drop that first game to the Hoosiers. 😊
Iowa 60-1 (or Indiana
60-1)
Wisconsin ML Rollover (or Michigan State)
The MAC Tournament
How is Buffalo only -150 when Gonzaga is -850. The separation between them and the second best team in Toledo is larger than Gonzaga to St Marys. Either way I still think it is better to do a ML rollover on Buffalo here and take it all the way home.
Well, the Knights got outplayed yesterday. They tied it up
at three early in the second but then lost their steam. Interestingly enough,
my two potential plays on totals yesterday both would have missed. At least we’re
able to show restraint when needed!
Florida just annihilated the Wings. Look got
potential future plays against Detroit.
Yesterday was a great day of hockey between very
evenly matched teams. Today looks similar, but there are a couple edges to exploit.
Today’s Slate
Columbus Blue Jackets
@ New York Islanders – If there’s one team I’m not comfortable investing in
right now it’s the Blue Jackets. They have been all over the place. New York, meanwhile, is coming off a home loss to
Philadelphia and should be looking for redemption. Interestingly enough, the
Isles are 8-3 in their last eleven with exactly
two days rest. That seems to be the key for them. Tonight, I’m fading the
Jackets and putting faith in an Isles team at home that needs a win to stay in
the thick of the playoff race. I’m just not sure Columbus is going to start
clicking in time to make the postseason. Last time out between these two the
Jackets lost at home to New York 3-0. Look for something similar tonight. The
total has dropped to 5.5, so now is the time to jump if you want the OVER. We’re
taking one unit there because both teams have shown propensity to score early
and often at times. I think a 4-2/4-3 win by New York is quite possible here.
New York Islanders
-1.5 (+235) 1unit
New York Islanders ML (-106) 3units
Columbus/New York Islander OVER 5.5 (-105) 1unit
San Jose Sharks @
Minnesota Wild – Next, we travel north. San Jose visits the Wild for a marquee
matchup on NBCSN. This should be a great game, but if you look at the numbers
they give some hints as to who might pull ahead in the end. Minnesota is
actually not good at home this year, posting a measly 14-13-6 record; they
actually boast a better road record. Meanwhile, the Sharks haven’t been
phenomenal on the road (they have a winning record by four games) but have been
great against the Central at 12-4-0. And look at the Wild against the Pacific;
10-10-1. The Wild have lost both meetings to the Sharks this year, one in each
arena, and the previous matchup at Xcel Energy Center went really badly for Minnesota, as they lost 4-0. Looking at the
netminders, Devan Dubnyk has a losing record at home and worse stats than he
does on the road. He was in goal for each of the Wild’s two losses to the
Sharks this year, giving up seven total goals in those two starts. Another
angle I like here is in the first period. The Sharks have the second-most first
period goals this year, only three behind Tampa and nine ahead of third place
Pittsburgh. Minnesota scores the seventh-fewest first period goals of all the
teams, and they give up about league average. While it could be 0-0 after the
first, it could easily be 1-0 or 2-0/2-1 San Jose as well. We’ll put a unit
there, and another one ATS in case the Sharks sink that empty netter with the
outrageous price we’re getting. But our real money goes on the ML.
San Jose -1.5 (+225)
1unit
San Jose ML (-109) 3units
San Jose -0.5 (1st Period) (+175) 1unit
Those are my angles for today. Make sure you follow on
twitter (@jksportsbets), as I often release in-game plays that have shown to be
very profitable. Get that alarm ringing!
What a day we had yesterday! A clean sweep, a perfect 5-0
for +11.52units in the newsletter picks, with another successful pick added via
twitter in-game for a total daily profit of +14units! Just like with the losses,
though, let’s not mull over it too much, and instead move on to reflection and
tonight’s slate.
Chicago’s OVER streak ended at 16 games in a 2-1
win in Dallas. Be wary of any over team playing on the road in an under arena.
I’ll do further research on that this week, but my initial reaction is that it
goes under a lot.
The Sharks won in OT, and I felt like that was
likely, so I went with the normal ML there. The Blues are a very, very good
team, and very good on the road. Look for opportunities with them in the remaining
weeks of the regular season.
The Flyers are good all of a sudden, and Vegas
is rolling.
Today’s Slate
There are only five games tonight, but man do they all look good! Three of the five have the favorite no
more than -139. Lots of good, close games between playoff teams. Vegas and
Calgary, Boston and Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and Washington. LA and Anaheim do
battle in SoCal, and Detroit travels into Florida. There’s not a lot of value
in today’s slate, and I only have one pick I’m comfortable sharing for tonight.
The Golden Knights are hot. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it
again; this is a new team since the trade deadline. Meanwhile, Calgary was red hot but has now lost four in a row,
including an ugly loss to the Coyotes and a loss to these Knights in Vegas. I
do think Calgary will be looking for revenge at home, but I don’t think it’s
coming. It’s the second game in two nights for Vegas, but I think it’s good
they keep playing often with the momentum they have. Additionally, they’ve won
two of the last three back legs of a back-to-back. We’ve put trust in them
before, and I expect Vegas to win for us again here.
Vegas ML (+119)
2units
Unfortunately, that’s it for today! Follow me on twitter
(@jksportsbets); I’ll be keeping an eye on the scoreboard and likely releasing
some IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability. Make sure you have that
alarm bell turned on!
Today in Phoenix, AZ at ISM Raceway will be the 4th Nascar Monster Cup series race of the 2019 season. This week the cars are back to 750 hp but they keep the 8″ spoilers which give them a lot of extra downforce that will create some exciting racing! Since this will be the first race with this particular package we’re going to limit the juice and pick drivers that like this track and can wheel it. We’ve been in the green the last two weeks with our picks and will look to continue that in this ever changing season.
Sunday Afternoon Toronto visits Miami, as we are in the final stretch of the season I think we’re likely to see more overs and I think a day game plays to that even more. Raptors/Heat over 216
Last time out we didn’t fare so well. There were several
upsets that we were on the wrong side of, and some totals that came oh so
close. The best that we can do is to learn from our mistakes!
Yesterday three of the four winning teams scored
six goals or more. Two of them had eight each. The Ducks scored more last night
than they did in the seven games from
February 2nd to 17th. Wow.
Winnipeg also put up an eight burger last night.
It’s their third time this season they’ve scored 8+ in a game and the fifth
time they’ve scored 7+. Also, wow.
Today’s Slate
There are 12 games tonight, but we’re taking a different
approach than usual. I can’t find any good edges with the totals; again, I’m
recommending you proceed with caution on the Blackhawks over bet. Dallas is an
UNDER team, especially at home, and if you watched the ‘Hawks game on Thursday
when I sent out my previous fade recommendation, you’ll know it was very close to missing. Let’s move on.
San Jose is the second-best home team in the league this
year, behind only Tampa Bay. They’re 11-2 in their last 13 at home, and somehow
always manage to win at SAP Center.
The Blues were playing well for quite a while but seem to have lost a step
recently. They’re 2-2 in their last four and probably should have lost that
game in Anaheim if it were not for a colossal collapse by the Ducks. Take the
home team at a reduced price in this one – the Sharks are near unbeatable in
downtown San Jose and have everything
to play for.
San Jose ML (-130) 2units
The Devils are 1-7 in their last eight back legs of a
back-to-back on the road. They played (and lost) last night in Washington, and
they have just looked terrible this
year. Meanwhile, while the Rangers have been out of the playoff race for some
time now they show no signs of stopping. They continue to push the pace and
tempo every game and play as if they were competing for that last playoff spot.
The Rangers have lost six in a row but bear with me; they’ve lost those games
by an average of 1.16 goals/game. All of them have been one-goal games with one two goal loss in there. Those
include losses to Montreal (playing very well), Tampa Bay, Washington (twice),
and Dallas. The last win the Rangers had? At home against New Jersey. Look for
the Devils to help end New York’s skid tonight.
New York Rangers
3-Way ML (-120) 2units
New York Rangers ML (-172) 3units
The Golden Knights have shown to be a new team since the
deadline a couple weeks ago. They’ve since won five in a row and are clicking
on all cylinders. They travel to Vancouver to face a ‘Nucks team that has gone
1-4 in their last five. Last time out Vancouver lost to the Oilers 3-2, and if
you watched that game you know it wasn’t nearly as close as the score
indicated. An interesting aspect to this game is that Vancouver gives up the
sixth-most power plays on the year and the Knights have the seventh most
efficient power play in the league. I think special teams will make a bigger
impact in this game than expected, and have the Knights winning comfortably.
They won 3-0 last time out against Vancouver, and I expect a similar score.
Vegas -1.5 (+152)
1unit
Vegas 3-Way ML (-125) 3units
Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) during the entire NHL
slate today; I’ll be keeping an eye on the scoreboard and likely releasing some
IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability. Make sure you have that alarm
bell turned on!
This looks like 2 tournament teams facing off here at the end of the season. Minnesota is coming off that great win against Purdue while Maryland is coming off of a tough home loss against Michigan. Minnesota is 5-5 ATS on the road while Maryland is 7-9-1 at home. Now the spot definitely says potential let down here for Minnesota but they still probably remain a slight bubble team even after beating Purdue. Minnesota is pretty locked up where they stand in the big 10 tournament which is a second day game but Maryland on the other hand still has a shot at getting a 2 day bye should Wisconsin lose a game. Maryland is on 4 days rest and Minnesota will only be on 2 so as you see the spot favors Maryland. The home road offensive splits show Maryland scoring 11.5 more points per game at home rather than on the road and Minnesota scoring 14.7 points less on the road and at home. Part of this huge disparity is obviously both teams play most easy non conference games at home but these double digits at this point in the year definitely say something. In conference games Maryland ranks top 5 adjusted efficiency on offense and 4th on defense while Minnesota is 6th and 10th respectively. Looking at the match-up Maryland’s biggest weakness is turnovers ranking last in the big 10 in losing the ball and steals. Minnesota doesn’t steal the ball well ranking 13th. Minnesota’s biggest weakness is defending in the paint and rebounding while Maryland has the size to score down low with dual 6’10 guy Bruno Fernando and Jaylen Smith. I like the Terps to cover here and re-establish their position as a top tier big 10 team. I have this Maryland
Maryland -7 and lean under 138
Central Michigan vs Western Michigan +3 O/U 153
Both Tom Kolpien and I like the Central Michigan -3 as long as Montgomery is playing.
Michigan vs Michigan State -4 O/U 131
Well this game certainly became interesting now that Purdue has lost to Minnesota. Michigan State and Michigan with a win here secures at least a portion of the big 10 regular season title. Michigan may get a little extra love here on the spot because it is a revenge game for that loss at home. Michigan is 6-4 ATS on the road but Michigan State is a crazy 11-4 ATS at home. Michigan State will be without Nick Ward and Michigan will be without Charles Matthews and I think these injuries somewhat cancel each other out. Home road splits are not too extravagant for the Wolverines but for Sparty they are are around 17 points. Conference points per game splits has Sparty winning 68 to 67 on a neutral or 70-65 at home. Michigan States offensive and defensive efficiency rank 1st and 3rd in the big 10 while Michigan ranks 4th and 1st. Overall Michigan State has the 4th best offense in the nation and Michigan has the 3rd best defense in the nation. This game will be hard to pick a side here. Michigan did not shoot as well last game and had 10 less free throws. What I am going to look at is the over. It is true that both of these teams play at the slower tempo but being that these teams are among the best in the big 10 you have to add a possession or back in for each team to assume there won’t be much of a garbage time. This game went to 147 a few weeks ago. I have it Michigan State winning 70 – 65
Over 131 and lean Michigan +4
Louisville vs Virginia – 11 O/U 124
Both Tom and I like the under 124
Texas Tech vs Iowa State -1 O/U 137
Texas Tech has been on fire winning their last 8 games in a row, 7-1 ATS in those games and being a modest 4-4 ATS as an away team. Iowa State is definitely in the tournament beating this Tech team back in Mid January and boasting an 8-5-1 at home against the spread record. Looking at the spot, Iowa State could gain back a better seed for winning this game in the NCAA tournament but it won’t help them win the big 12. This is a road revenge game for the Red Raiders and they need this win to secure at least a share of the regular season Big 12 championship so the spot definitely favors Tech here. Home road splits definitely favor the Cyclones but they have lost 2 of their last 3 home games. Texas Tech as been a much better conference team scoring 71 points and allowing only 62 while Iowa State scores 73 and allows 70. Iowa State has the 10th best offense in the nation but only the 3rd best in efficiency in the big 12. Tech’s defense is 1st in the nation and in the big 12. I think their defense prevails and their hunger to win their first regular season big 12 title should prevail. Texas Tech wins 71-69
Texas Tech +1
Syracuse vs Clemson -4 O/U 128
Both of these teams are 19-12 bubble teams who need a big victory. Back in January Syracuse beat Clemson by 8 at home. Syracuse had some bad luck vs Virginia on Monday who shot lights out against them in the Carrier Dome. Clemson has had a nice part of their schedule facing Boston College, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame 3 of their last 4 games while Syracuse had to play Louisville, Duke, North Carolina and Virginia 4 of their last 5 games. Both of these teams are middle of the road ACC teams on paper but for some reason Syracuse score’s 3 more points per game on the road then they do at home. From a match-up standpoint Syracuse has a big advantage in blocks down low and causing turnovers while Clemson has the advantage in over all defensive efficiency and low effective FG%. The key motivation here is that Syracuse needs this game more than Clemson and they will be on more rest. Clemson just played Notre Dame Wednesday and Syracuse has had 4 full days rest to think about needing this W. Syracuse always seems to come through at the end and sneak into the tournament. They like to bounce back big after a loss. I think this game is close and Clemson squeaks out a win on senior night by 65-63.
Syracuse +4 small and ml sprinkle
Purdue vs North Western +7 O/U 133
Purdue coming off of a huge loss vs Minnesota now giving up a chance at a big 10 regular season title unless they win this game. Northwestern finally getting a win after losing 10 in a row against a very injured Ohio State team without their best player in Kaleb Wesson. The Wildcats have the worst offense in the big 10 and 187th in the nation in offensive efficiency and Purdue has the 5th best in the nation at 121.5. The Boilermakers also edge out Northwestern in conference Defense. Motivation vs no motivation!
Purdue -7 may be a max play up to -11
Duke vs North Carolina -7 O/U 167
Road revenge spot for Duke. North Carolina can lock up a share of the ACC regular season here. Everyone knows that Zion Williamson is hurt and people say he is worth 5 points to the line. Well that may be true but I think the the whole Wake Forest game when duke barely beat them by 1 point and Duke’s loss to Virginia Tech will end up giving Duke a ton of line value here. No player to me is worth 5 points when it comes to the pure motivation of the team. We have to remember that Duke still has 2 active top 5 recruits and Cam Reddish. These kids will be hyped up for this game and this spot. We know both of these teams can score points but I think that even with Zion out, coach K will be having them play a little more defense. We know that Duke’s biggest weakness is shooting the 3 and free throws to some extent but where Duke has a chance here is that North Carolina ranks 10th in the conference in defending the 3. I think if Duke can get hot like they have at Syracuse and at Virginia, they should be able to motivated themselves to a cover. I like the Duke +7 but if it opens low like around 3 or 4 I may take the line value with the Tar Heels.
UNC -3 small and Duke +7 larger. Duke is the play at +7
