Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
March Madness is here and it is the last weekend of regular season games! We first get into the Big 10 team rankings as usual. We have a new guest in handicapper Thomas Kolpien @CoverProfit comes in to discuss some of his tactics and handicapping style. We then talk a bit about some trends on how to bet some of these teams in the tournaments. Finally we get into some huge games for the weekend!
NCAA: Minnesota vs Maryland – Central Michigan vs Western Michigan – Michigan vs Michigan State – Louisville vs Virginia – Texas Tech vs Iowa State – Syracuse vs Clemson – Purdue vs Northwestern – Duke vs North Carolina – Illinois vs Penn State
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It’s really two days
ago’s reflection, but let’s not argue over nuances. We learned some very
valuable pieces of information from the dumpster fire that was our investment
tendencies on Tuesday. Reminder: I sent out an investment in-game last night
that hit for +3units. Make sure you follow on twitter (@jksportsbets) for these
profitable in-game investments!
Columbus simply can’t be trusted right now.
The Coyotes are being overvalued in the market
(more below).
Vegas is a very good team, and I would not want
to face them in the first round. Clearly, the addition of Stone has sparked
something.
We got a good slate tonight! I have a LOT of value here.
Today’s Slate
We have 11 games to wade through tonight, and there’s value
to be had across the board.
Is there any team hotter right now than the Bruins? Four
wins in a row and 11 in their last 12. If you’ve been investing with them it
has paid off handsomely. Wins against Tampa, the Sharks (twice), Vegas, the
Isles, the Caps; you name a team, and Boston has beaten them recently.
Meanwhile, the Panthers have lost five in a row, and are coming off an overtime
loss to Pittsburgh. Florida has now fallen out of the playoff race, and it’s
starting to show. The ML is too juiced, and the spread is only at +125, so take
a 3-Way ML bet for the B’s tonight.
Boston 3-Way ML
(-145) 2units
The Penguins have won seven in a row against Columbus dating
back to 2017. Columbus is reeling, and no one on that team is clicking with
each other. Also, three of their last four head-to-head have gone OVER the
total. Columbus has lost four of the last six as an underdog and lost 5-2 the
last time these teams met. Columbus has been inconsistent across the board
lately, and inconsistency won’t fly tonight in Pittsburgh – the Pens are
playing their best hockey of the season. In an interesting spot, these two
teams will face off again on
Saturday. I think the fireworks happen here; tonight. Take the over and take
the Pens.
Pittsburgh ML (-130) 2units
Columbus/Pittsburgh OVER 6.5 (-128) 1unit
Tampa Bay. What is there to say that you don’t already know.
Winners of 12 of their last 13. Winners of the President’s Trophy. Winners of
the regular season. Here’s one you might not know; in their last eight at home,
Tampa has scored more than four goals six times. Right now, you can find a team
total O/U set at 3.5. Clear OVER bet there. Additionally, a 3-Way line on Tampa
is under -175 right now, which is not that common. The Wild have strung
together a couple wins which might be the reason for the ML drop, but these
wins were not deserved. They can’t stand up to the competition in Florida.
Tampa Bay -1.5 (+105)
1unit
Tampa Bay 3-Way ML (-160) 3units
Tampa Bay Team Total OVER 3.5 (-120) 3units
Vancouver and Edmonton have had their struggles this year.
One of the biggest issue for the ‘Nucks is the goaltending and the depth (or
lack thereof) in that position. Tonight, they’re starting Thatcher Demko in his
fourth ever career start. The last two starts he gave up eight goals combined.
He’s only started two games since the middle of January, the aforementioned two;
oh, and by the way, he gave up those eight goals to the Sabres and the Coyotes.
Not exactly elite competition. Interest stat: in their six games at home with
an O/U of 6, the Oilers are 4-1-1 to the OVER. Edmonton is 5-2 in the last
seven, while the ‘Nucks are 2-6 in their last eight. Over and Oilers look good
here. The regular ML is too juiced, so look 3-Way instead.
Edmonton -1.5 (+160)
2units
Edmonton 3-Way ML (-120) 3units
Edmonton/Vancouver OVER 6 (+108) 2units
This is a clear bet
on Calgary spot. They’ve had some tough losses lately having lost three in a
row. But let’s keep in mind which teams these losses were to: Minnesota,
Toronto, and Vegas. Those three teams are definitely fighting for playoff
positioning, and losses to them are nothing to be disappointed about. Calgary
had a seven game win streak before this losing streak where they beat the Islanders
twice, the Pens once, and these ‘Yotes 5-2. Meanwhile, Arizona has won six of
their last seven, yet those wins were not
convincing, and they were against subpar competition. Due to recency bias,
you’re getting a ridiculous price on Calgary today. Take the trifecta with confidence.
Calgary -1.5 (+200)
1unit
Calgary 3-Way ML (+110) 2units
Calgary ML (-129) 3units
The Kings have gone OVER in five of their last six, and yet
the O/U sits at 5.5 simply because the Blues are in town. Los Angeles is 6-2 to
the over in their last eight. Jake Allen is expected to start for St. Louis
tonight, and he’s given up at least four goals in three of the last five.
Meanwhile, Quick posts an ugly 3.30 GAA and .891 SV through 36 games played
this year. I like the OVER here. Also, the Blues are not good in the second half of back-to-backs this year, having lost
10 of their last 12 in that role, including ugly losses to Arizona (twice) and
Anaheim. They were outscored in those two losses to Arizona 12-1. Yuck. The
Kings have taken many quality teams the distance this year, just to fall short
in the third or in overtime. We keep thinking their motivation will drop but it
doesn’t. At +152, it’s too good a spot to pass up. Keep an eye on my twitter
(@jksportsbets) specifically for this game, I can see situations where we can
find value in-game as well.
Los Angeles ML (+152)
1unit
Los Angeles/St. Louis OVER 5.5 (+123) 2units
You might notice there’s a very blatant OVER bet missing
from my recommendations tonight. Yep. I’m doing the unthinkable and telling you
to fade
the Blackhawks OVER tonight. This one’s based on intuition; the ‘Hawks
have been an over machine. I’m very wary
of tonight’s game against the Sabres, and I think you should be too. Invest in
the game total with care.
Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) during the entire NHL
slate tonight, as I release IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability.
Make sure you have the alarm bell turned on!
Nebraska may be the most disappointing team in the big 10 this year. With hopes of tournament birth this team has only won 2 of their last 12 games and much of the reason for this is when they lost their second best player Isaiah Copeland in January. Michigan State has had their own injuries losing Josh Langford and then recently Nick Ward for a few weeks who should be able to come back for the Tournament Madness. Sparty is coming off of another embarrassing lost to an Indiana team who is trying to get back on the bubble with a win against Wisconsin a week ago as well. MSU should be plenty motivated here to finish out their games with wins in order to try and get a piece of that Big 10 regular season. What sticks out like a soar thumb to me is how bad Nebraska is as an away team. Over their last 3 road games they have lost by an average of 23.5 points and now they have to play the best in the Big 10. Michigan State may be pretty injured but their defense is still very good holding opponents to only 61 points per game at home. Both teams play slow in conference at 65.9 plays per game. This Nebraska team is pretty much now out of contention for the NCAA tournament unless they somehow win the Big 10 tournament and I think that they will not be motivated to play hard here in this spot. I like Michigan State to take care of business defensively to keep up with Purdue for the Big 10 regular season title.
Michigan State -13 and under 139
South Carolina vs Texas A&M – 4.5 O/U 142
This game is more of a situational play rather than a spot play. Both of these teams are out of the NCAA tournament and both are going in opposite directions. South Carolina has lost their best player in point guard AJ Lawson to injury a week ago who averaged 14 points per game, 3 assists per game, 1.1 steels per game and even 4.4 rebounds. This injury really stuck its ugly head out on Saturday vs Missouri with SC losing by 15. Now South Carolina has to go on the road again after dropping 3 straight games to face an Aggies team that has a lot of pride. Texas A&M has been relatively hot ripping off wins in 5 of their last 7 games. Now both of these teams play pretty sloppy and turn the ball over plenty but the 2 things that I am banking on here in this handicap is that South Carolina thrives by shooting the 3 point shot with the fact that they lost their best shooter to injury and Texas A&M is a team that defends the 3 very well while having the better defense. Both offenses are pretty much equal if all things are held equal but the big injury to the Gamecocks should once again rear it’s ugly head. I do not see how South Carolina wins this game without their stud and this line should be -6.
We only found value in one investment yesterday – I don’t
force them, I only take ‘em when I feel there’s value to be had. The good news
is our investment paid off for a +3unit profit yesterday! Buffalo and Edmonton
hit the over in the second period, so there was no stress in that one. The main
takeaway from yesterday is…
The Leafs and Flames game was pretty
disappointing. Expected a great one, got a mediocre one.
We have a busy slate tonight!
Today’s Slate
There are 10 games tonight. A lot of the games, however,
have lines that I feel are pretty good. The real value tonight will be in-game wagers. As long as there’s value
to be found, I’ll be releasing plays in between periods of the games tonight on
my twitter (@jksportsbets). The track record proves that these investments are
more profitable than other types of bets – so follow and get that alarm bell on
for maximum profit!
We’ll start in Jersey. Call me an optimist, but I know this
Blue Jackets team will come together soon enough. Since the trade deadline
expectations have been high but results have been low. This is a great spot for
the Jackets to start a run. They can build momentum against a weak Devils team
and follow it up with two straight against the Pens. While this might seem like
a classic “look ahead” spot, I don’t believe so. Columbus knows they need to
win and win now. Since the deadline
they haven’t had a road game, so this is a great chance to get their feet under
themselves away from the distractions at home. The Devils have lost three in a
row and four of five, meanwhile the Jackets won four of their last five on the
road before the deadline. Look for this unpredictable Columbus team to return
to winning ways and predictability tonight at Prudential Center (and the 3-Way
line is only -130 at MyBookie).
Columbus -1.5 (+110)
2units
Columbus 3-Way ML (-130) 3units
Out in the desert about 100 miles from where I’m at right
now is a battle between average and bad. Anaheim drives out to visit the
Coyotes at Gila River Arena. The good news for investors is that these are two of
the most UNDER proficient teams in the league. Anaheim has gone under eight in
their last 11 as well as 6-1 in the last seven. Arizona is 7-4 to the under in
their last 11. Both offenses are terrible – the ‘Yotes are 28th in
the league in GF, and the Ducks are dead last. But not only do these teams not
score, they don’t give up an insane
amount of goals. The Ducks are 16th in GA and the Coyotes allow the
8th fewest goals in the NHL. The UNDER is at 5.5, and deservedly so.
Take it for two units. Additionally, Arizona is right in the middle of a seven
game homestand, and they’ve won six in a row. Those wins have come against
subpar teams (except for one against Winnipeg), and that’s what the Coyotes
face tonight. They have a chance (albeit a small one) to make their first trip
back to the postseason since they lost to the Kings in the conference finals in
2011-2012. This team is playing very well right now – I’m continually impressed
by the hustle shown by Conor Garland. Throw a unit on the ML and put faith in
the Desert Dogs tonight. Unfortunately, both investments are juiced up, so make
exposure low here.
Arizona ML (-158)
1unit
Anaheim/Arizona UNDER 5.5 (-145) 2units
Southern California is our last stop, again. For most of the
year the Kings were an under team. Under, under, under. Bad teams don’t score
goals, and therefore the under hits reliably, right? Well, lately not so. The
Kings, since their streak of 5 in a row to the under ended on January 17, have
been 9-2 to the OVER. They’re still losing games, but the offense has picked it
up. When you break it down by division it gets more interesting. In terms of
O/U, the Kings have hit the over in eight of their last ten against the
Atlantic. With the total at only 5.5, this is a clear OVER bet for me.
Additionally, when looking at the side, Los Angeles is 2-9-3 against the
Atlantic this year (and have lost the last TWELVE IN A ROW). Yep. The Kings
have lost twelve in a row to the Atlantic, including losses to Ottawa (x2),
Buffalo (x2), and Detroit. Meanwhile Montreal is a surprising 10-3 SU against
the Pacific and have won six in a row, including 4-1 on the road this year. The
Canadiens are right in the mix of the playoff race in the East and are playing
with lots of motivation. We’re throwing
a lot at this matchup.
Montreal -1.5 (+195)
1unit
Montreal 3-Way ML (+115) 1unit
Montreal ML (-137) 3units
Los Angeles/Montreal OVER 5.5 (-111) 3units
Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) especially tonight, as
I’m hopeful for more value to be found in-game, so our LIVE IN-GAME investments
should increase profitability. Make sure you have the alarm bell turned on to
get notified of my tweets since I release plays IN-GAME that greatly increase
our profitability!
We had a good day yesterday, and even though we went 3-4 on
the pregame picks, we still profited 0.6 units. If you followed my twitter
(@jksportsbets) you would have profited 2.5 MORE units because we cashed an
in-game bet of 2units at +125. Follow and get that alarm bell on for extra
profit!
Vegas added Mark Stone at the trade deadline,
and since have won four straight. I don’t see a division title in their future,
but that first round matchup between either the Sharks or the Flames and Vegas
is going to be good.
Columbus is still a mess, and still hard to predict.
Getting that CHI/SJS OVER at 6.5 early and as
opposed to 7 at game time made all the
difference.
The Avalanche are shaky, at best.
Today’s Slate
It’s a small slate tonight, as there are only two games.
Edmonton travels to play the Sabres, and the marquee matchup consists of the
Maple Leafs going to Calgary, an all Canada battle of two of the top NHL teams.
That Toronto/Flames game is going to be excellent, and I can’t find much value.
I think the lines are spot on there, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting it,
but I’ll be matching as a fan for SURE! Value can be found in Buffalo.
The Sabres have hit the OVER in five straight games, and
three straight at home. When playing at home as a favorite between -115 and
-130 Buffalo has hit the over in five of the last seven going back to March
2018 (yes, they’ve only been a favorite between 115 and 130 seven times in a
year). But more significantly, when the Oilers are underdogs between +100 and
+125, they have gone over in seven in a
row, and eight of the last nine. Neither Mikko Koskinen nor Linus Ullmark
are in the top 25 in the league in GAA or SV. Buffalo has allowed at least three
goals in seven of the last nine, eight of their last 11, and 17 of their last
25. Both teams aren’t mathematically eliminated yet, and they have one last
gasp before the playoffs, so bet on fireworks. The over/under is at 6 for this
game which makes sense given the stats, but if you realistically think about
this game it should probably be 6.5. Have fun with an over bet here, and plan
on a push being a worst-case scenario!
BUF/EDM OVER 6 (-118) 3units
PSA: The OVER is being bet up; it was at -111 not an hour
ago. Get on it quick, just like the ‘Hawks last night! Taking it at 6.5 last
night instead of 7 was KEY. Don’t let this one fall to 6.5!
As always, follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) for LIVE NHL
betting advice, as well as handicapping tips and facts. Make sure you have the
alarm bell turned on to get notified of my tweets since I release plays IN-GAME
that greatly increase our profitability!
Welp. Yesterday did NOT go well. We picked the wrong side of
the only two upsets. I can’t promise that won’t happen, I can only promise that
I will put in the work and the research to minimize how often those days happen.
It’s just variance in the life of an investor. The best way to deal with it is
to learn and move on, so let’s move on to what we learned!
There was a match penalty last night
to the Flames’ Garnet Hathaway. I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen one
that bad; I know, it could have been him avoiding a check that went wrong. But
if you watch his eyes, I don’t think it was just that.
The horn rang
early on a no-goal in the Coyotes game with the Wings last night. Then they
scored. Really tests the referee’s knowledge of the rulebook, and I believe the
letter of the law was unforced more than the spirit. But it helped us!
The Bruins keep winning. Maybe they should,
maybe they shouldn’t, but regardless they’re getting it done.
So do the Lightening. Man, these playoffs are
shaping up to be fun…
Okay, let’s get at it! As a reminder, our night was slightly
improved due to the in-game investments I released on my twitter feed yesterday
evening. Make sure you follow (@jksportsbets) and get that alarm bell on for
LIVE IN-GAME NHL investment tips, strategies, and news.
Today’s Slate
We’re just going to get this one done so we can move on to
discussion. I have lots of facts and figures ready to back this up – San Jose
goes OVER 60% overall and 60% at home, and Chicago, well let’s not beat a dead
horse.
CHI/SJS OVER 6.5 (-152) 3units
Let’s go to Ohio again, with a different take today. Yes,
apparently the Jackets decided to retire before last night’s game, and yes,
they’re ready to bounce back. Bobrovsky has been the glue holding this team
together in these situations, and that’s great for Columbus! Except he’s not
starting tonight. Joonas Korpisalo is expected to start, and he has been
average at best, posting an .897 save percentage and a GAA of 3.01 this year. To
add on for Columbus, he is worse at home than on the road, posting .885/3.24 at
home as opposed to .911/2.71 on the road. Korpi has also lost his last three
starts. Columbus has looked like they still need some time to adjust to their
new additions; I think they’ll get there, but not tonight. Winnipeg is 9-3
against the Metropolitan Division and is coming off a big comeback win against
the Preds. I would avoid a spread bet on this game, but the odds are plenty
good for a 3-way line.
WPG 3-Way ML (+175) 2units
We now go to the City of Sin, where the Canucks come to
visit the Golden Knights. This one seems relatively simple to me. Along with
how far the ‘Nucks have fallen in the last few months, Vegas suddenly has
something to play for. First it was assumed that there was a three-way battle
for the Pacific with Vegas, Calgary, and San Jose. Then Vegas had fallen “securely”
into the three spot. Now, it’s anything but secure. Both the Wild and the
Coyotes won last night, putting Vegas only six points ahead of the Wild and
seven of Arizona. The pressure is starting to set in here for the Knights, so I
believe they will come out strong in this one. Vancouver has a -12 goal
differential in the first period and are 2-18-5 when trailing after one. Vegas
as a first period GD of only 3 goals, but they have outshot their opponents by
over 100 shots YTD in the period. Also, Vegas is 12-5-2 when scoring first at
home this year. We’re taking Vegas on the spread with a first period bet to
boot.
My last preview is in Southern California again, this time
in the county of Orange. Gibson returned for the Ducks in their last game
against Vegas, and while he played well he didn’t get offense to help him –
have you heard the before about Anaheim? They’ve lost 5 in a row and are facing
an Avs team that’s gone 6-3 in their last nine, with their losses coming to
Florida (sneaky good), St. Louis (actually good), and San Jose (very good).
Meanwhile, during this streak they’ve beaten Nashville, Winnipeg TWICE, and
Vegas, and get this: the combined score in those four wins? 19-2. NINETEEN to
TWO. The Avs held those three opponents to only two goals against in four games
and put up nearly five goals/game. These two teams are trending in opposite
directions, and the Ducks have nothing to play for while Colorado has
everything to play for. This game gets a rare triple dip from me, as I’m quite
confident Colorado wins and it may not even be that close.
COL -1.5 (+190) 1unit
COL 3-Way ML (+115) 2units
COL ML (-130) 3units
As always, follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) for LIVE NHL
betting advice, as well as handicapping tips and facts. Get that alarm bell on!
I have a good feeling about this slate!
Last week we cashed in a positive week, getting some lost money back from Speedweeks, well continue with the strategy and keep building the bank roll up.
The 3rd NASCAR race of the season is this Sunday at Las Vegas at 3:30PM. Last week’s race was the first taste of NASCAR’s new package for 2019. Compared to previous years races on 1.5 mile tracks, the new package helped the drivers put on a great show and created a lot of excitement. The full new package will be on display this week meaning the racing is expected to be similar to how the NASCAR Truck and Xfinity series races are. Similar to last week, the strategy should be to pick some drivers at good values in matchups along with a good value pick to win the race and/or to get a top 3/5 finish. When I think about drivers that will be in the running for the win this week, I instantly think Penske racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Chip Ganassi Racing. They all showed a lot of speed and handling last week at Atlanta.
Kyle Busch (+110) vs Kevin Harvick
$50 to Win $55
Kurt Busch (-125) vs Aric Almirola
$50 to win $40
Matt Dibenedetto (+150) vs Alex Bowman
$50 to win $75
In a fun Friday night of hockey, we can definitely highlight
some takeaways.
It seems that Philadelphia’s power play is,
well, not great. Meanwhile, the Devils have one of the most underrated penalty
killing units in the league.
Ovechkin is really,
really good.
Colorado scores more in the third period than
every other team in the league except Calgary.
The Ducks are reeling, the Sabres are better
than you think, and Ovechkin is really,
really good.
Yesterday, we went 3-2 on our pre-game picks for a profit of 3.45 units. Our in-game picks
through twitter were a different story, but those are still being honed in.
Make sure to follow (@jksportsbets) for updated information.
Alright, let’s get to it!
Today’s Slate
This one’s coming out early because one of our picks plays
at 1pm Eastern. Let’s start in Ohio, where the Oilers come into town to face
the Jackets. The Oilers are 1-5 in their last six road games, and 4 of those 5
losses came by at least two goals. The only win came against a Wild team that
has been skidding as of late. They’re 11-20 ATS on the road this year, while
the Jackets have won 3 of their last 4, including a very impressive win at home
against a strong Sharks team. There’s a reason you only get +120 against the
spread for the Jackets as a goal and a half favorite. Take it and add in a
3-Way ML bet for good measure – the normal money line is at -220, and for good
measure. That’s a little too steep for my liking, though.
CBJ -1.5 (+120) 2units
CBJ 3-Way ML (-150) 3units
It’s become common knowledge that you can either go to the
ATM or you can bet Chicago OVER; either work just as well. Crawford is back in
net for the ‘Hawks for the second game since his injury, but he did not look
that great in Anaheim. Now, Chicago drives up the 5 freeway for a visit to
Staples Center to face the Kings who have lost the last ten games. This feels like
a trap game to me, and could be a lot closer than many believe. The Kings took Tampa
the distance the other day, and despite being in the cellar still seem to be
playing with a lot of emotion and energy. But let’s keep trying the Chicago
totals until they tell us it’s not going to work anymore. Chicago has gone over
6.5 goals in the last 13 games. Yes, thirteen
in a row. Meanwhile, the Kings try and stay in games but scoring, not stopping
others from scoring. Patrick Kane is playing on another level, and LA has given
up at least four goals in each of their last four games, and 20 over all four. The
OVER is currently only at -104 at BetOnline, so get on it quick!
CHI/LAK OVER 6.5 (-104) 3units
The next one is based more on intuition. In the last four
games the Sabres are merely 2-2, but those wins came against Pittsburgh and
Washington, while in both losses they were in it right to the end. The last
time the Sabres went to Toronto they severely
outplayed the Leafs, but couldn’t come away from Scotiabank Arena with both
points. I think they’ll be looking to avenge their loss last week. I believe
the market is undervaluing Buffalo and overvaluing Toronto for a variety of
reasons. There’s the name-brand factor and there’s recency bias (Toronto has
won a lot lately, while Buffalo is merely average). But these wins by the Leafs
have been more luck than skill. Let’s through a unit on the Sabres ML and get
some extra push from the odds.
BUF ML (+222) 1unit
Last, we go to Canada. Calgary has won their last seven
games in a row, including convincing wins against the Penguins and the
Islanders (twice). The Wild have since won four in a row, turning around a
seeming endless stretch where they went 1-9 from February 1 through the 17. I
don’t believe they’ve changed, though. They haven’t looked convincing in their
wins, and Calgary has been unstoppable at home as of late. Also, the Flames are
13-4-1 SU against the Central, while the wild are 9-10-1 against the Pacific.
The Flames won both previous meetings this year, one in snowy Minnesota and one
in Calgary. Look for them to sweep the season series tonight.
CGY -1.5 (+165) 1unit
CGY 3-Way ML (-120) 3units
As always, follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) for LIVE NHL
betting advice, as well as handicapping tips and facts.
This night’s slate has a couple juicy games that bring a lot of value, in my opinion. There are four games starting at 7:05p Eastern, and I like two specific sides.
The Flyers come into New Jersey off an overtime loss in Columbus. Look for them to get back on track tonight. The Devils have the fewest goals scored in the Metropolitan division and this is a good spot for the Philly D to get back on track after giving up 19 goals in the last five games. The Devils have been decent at home as of late, going 4-2 in their last six home games, but those four wins came against Buffalo, Ottawa, Carolina, and Montreal, while they didn’t have a good game against a better Calgary team. Philadelphia has won the last three back legs of a back-to-back, and they fought hard last night but got frustrated. They’ll take a beating out on the Devils, so take PHI -1.5 at extra juice and PHI 3-Way ML for an extra bonus.
PHI -1.5 (+200) 1unit PHI 3-Way ML (+115) 3units
The Isles play at home against the Capitals tonight, after a very emotional 6-1 win against Toronto with the return of Tavares. The Islanders are 9-1 in their last ten back legs of back-to-back, with their only loss coming in overtime in Edmonton last week after a hard fought game the night before in Calgary. They were 9-0 up to that point. The crowd got rambunctious last night, deservedly, and the Caps have shown to struggle playing in very hostile environments on the road. They last played on Tuesday, and they’re 1-4 in their last five games with three or more days of rest. It seem that this team might get thrown out of the groove with too much time off. This Isles team has been relatively undervalued this year, and they are playing with emotion and energy. Take the normal ML with confidence, and throw in a bet ATS for good measure.
NYI -1.5 (+235) 1unit NYI ML (+100) 3units
Last we travel to the west coast; specifically, Silicon Valley. The Sharks lost a nasty one in Boston on Tuesday, and have been heated ever since, mostly due to the feud between Evander Kane and Zdeno Chara. They’ll come out strong against a Colorado team giving up the second-most goals against in the Central Division, trailing only Chicago’s horrendous D. Meanwhile the Sharks have the second-most goals scored in both the Pacific Division and the Western Conference, behind only Calgary and only by one goal. Colorado goes over the total 54% of the time, and 58% for San Jose. Colorado has been mighty good on the road as of late, scoring 14 goals in their last three road games (5, 5, and 4). Take the over with confidence.
COL/SJS OVER 6.5 (-133) 2units
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PHOENIX, ARIZONA - DECEMBER 09: Admiral Schofield #5 of the Tennessee Volunteers celebrates on the court after defeating the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the game at Talking Stick Resort Arena on December 9, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. The Volunteers defeated the Bulldogs 76-73. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Friday 3/1
Rhode Island vs Dayton -7.5 O/U 136
Let’s go to the Atlantic 10! So here is a game which both teams going in different directions. Dayton is working on a top 2 seed in their conference competing with VCU and Davidson while Rhode Island really has nothing to play for. Rhode Island has only had 2 road games so far in February and has only scored an average of 47 points. As a matter of fact they only average 66 points per game on the road in a pretty bad conference. Now they have to play a team in Dayton that has the top offense in their conference on Kenpom and the 3rd best defense. Now Rhode Island just ended that bad streak of 5 losses by beating up on one of the worst teams in college basketball in George Washington shooting 54% and scoring way more than their average. After getting it right for their own fans I think they have a little bit of a flat spot regressing back to the mean against the Fliers. Dayton plays the 13th slowest pace in their conference at 64.7 possessions per game to Rhode Islands 66.3. Rhode island is the worst 3 point shooting team in the nation. Dayton will not have to do much to beat this team but I also love the under! The under in Rhode Island games since February 2nd is 6-1
Under 136 Large and Dayton -7.5
Saturday 3/2
LSU vs Alabama +3 O/U 152
Nothing more says bubble to me looking at an Alabama. We have a couple of questionable guys for this game. Dazon Ingram for Bama left last game with a quad injury and he is a 27 minute player and LSU’s best point guard Tremont Waters is questionable with an illness but I expect him to play since he missed the A&M game. Looking at this spot, we can see that Alabama has everything to play for here and LSU has a slight look ahead to avenge their loss against Florida. The Tigers are a strange team to me this year. They seem to play up to the great teams and down to the bad teams. They shot terribly against the Aggies last game at only 34.8% so I usually like to come back on them but the spot is a little worrisome to me with Florida on deck and Alabama’s Motivation. One thing that I can count on is that both teams play pretty fast and their last game went all the way to 167 points with LSU winning at home 88 – 79. If LSU has any weakness it is their defense only ranking 6th in the SEC and 56th in the nation while Alabama averages 76.5 points at home. I like the Tide’s desperation to win this game. Not enough injury info for me to take a side but I will have some sort of play on the over. I have this game LSU 83 to 79
Over 152 all the way to 156
Nevada vs Utah State +1 O/U 143
Utah State is another Bubble team playing at home for revenge against the best team in the Mountain West! The Aggies are 9-4 ATS at home while the Wolfpack is a monster 7-3 ATS on the road. Looking at the splits you would see that Nevada is a much better team at home than on the road giving up about 10 more points and scoring about 3 points less. Utah State is a much better team at home than on the road scoring 6 more points per game and giving up a whopping 8 less. Going by splits Utah State wins this game 76-70 but I think it is harder to go by this seeing that Nevada has only lost 2 games all year and tend to let off the gas at the end of each game. These teams met earlier this year with the Wolfpack crushing the Aggies by 23 points but Utah State may be the most improved team since then in the nation. The biggest factor to me in this game that I do not like for Nevada is that Utah State is not only playing for revenge, they are also trying to get an at large ticket to the NCAA tournament. Nevada is most likely in anyways yet this is still a meaningful game for them not wanting to be tied for the conference. Being that both of these teams blow out their opponents in conference and I think that their tempo numbers may be showing a bit to low for this high caliber game. Last year this game went to 180
Over 143 big
Michigan State vs Indiana +8 O/U 134
Home dog alert and a real smelly one here with Indiana. This is a very weird game because Michigan State celebrated when they beat Michigan like they already clinched the division which makes this a huge let down spot but on the other hand, Michigan State lost to the Hoosiers at home and may be looking for revenge. No big 10 team is better than State against the spread as an away team at 8-3 and 20-8 overall while Indiana is a dismal 11-16 ATS. The scaring thing for me is that Indiana is fighting hard to get back on the bubble. They know that they can beat this Michigan State team and is 3-0 ATS their last 3 games. It is also hard to know how to fade a Michigan state team this good ATS even though they lost 2 of their three best players to injury in Joshua Langford and Nick Ward out another week at least. Due to the spot and the fact that the injuries may finally catch up with State, I have to look towards the under in this game. I do not think that Juwan Howard or Devonte green will have a ton of luck against Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins for Sparty. I also think that State slows the pace down on this one. I think this game will be slow and buckets will come as a premium. Indiana’s last 2 games went over time and both should have went under the total.
Under 134 and lean to Indiana
Kentucky vs Tennessee -4 O/U 145
Do you think the Vols remembers how it felt to be blown out last game against the Wildcats and being taking out of the number 1 seed? I think they do. I also think that Kentucky is one of the best 5 teams in the nation when healthy. The Key is, “when healthy”. Now some people faded Kentucky when they lost big man Reid Travis to injury and Kentucky answered back anyways blowing out Auburn by 27 and coming back to beat Arkansas in the look ahead spot. Now the question is how will they get up for this game knowing that Tennessee is looking for revenge? Tennessee still hasn’t beaten at top 25 team but hasn’t had a great opportunity playing both LSU and Kentucky away. Tennessee is a ranking first in most shooting categories in the SEC and second only to Kentucky in defense. Kentucky has a huge rebounding and inside game advantage agains’t Tennessee when they had Travis in but now the playing field is now more evened out. Everything I said really leans Tennessee here but the issue for this spread to me is the question how Kentucky going to react being disrespected as a dog. Kentucky is 2-0 as a dog this year and 6-2 ATS as an away team. I have a slight lean to Tennessee here and lean to the over but I may not be a huge player in this matchup.
Lean Tennessee Lean over
Sunday 3/3
Michigan vs Maryland +1 O/U 129
I am really glad that this game is on Sunday and I will be focused on this spread when it comes out. Not a lot of info here since Michigan is playing Nebraska tonight but If they win with fashion as I expect them to do, I will have to look towards the Maryland side of things. This is a revenge spot for the Terrapins and they now have more of an understanding on how Michigan plays ball. Looking at Maryland they are pretty bipolar scoring 78 points per game at home and only 65 on the road. Michigan isn ‘t terrible on the road at 6-5 ATS but they have dropped some big games to Wisconsin, Iowa and Penn State. I really do not want to over complicate this one so I am going to make it simple. Michigan just lost their top spot in the big 10 losing at home to Michigan State and will be looking ahead to revenging that in their last Big 10 game of the season. Michigan had their bounce back game against Nebraska so you do not have to worry about that motivation. This is a revenge spot for the Terrapins and this game certainly means more to them than to the Wolverines. I like Maryland up to -2.5 points
