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AAC UNDER With a Fishy Total

By
CoverTheProfit
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Take a look at the total in the Tulsa/Tulane matchup tonight. I like to look at the Game Center to keep an eye on market movements. This total opened at 140. Then, out of God knows where, it jumps to 147 with no bets on the OVER. This is what got my attention.

Then, when I take a look at the match-up and score projection engines who have algorithyms for scoring/tempo, I am seeing a lot of high 130’s. My own scoring system has this as a 140-142 pt game tonight from a raw numbers standpoint. Then, I see that Tulane comes in ranked 315th in the country in offensive efficiency, and in conference posts an offensive efficiency of dead last at 90.5 pts per 100 possessions. Conversely, Tulsa ranks 97th in defensive efficiency and has faced offensive efficiency teams on average ranked 68th in the country.

Both teams play at an above average pace: Tulsa 73rd, and Tulane 106th. But, I don’t think that tempo can get this score up to high 140’s. Take a look at the situational spot here. Tulsa is coming off a big home win where they blew out Temple in surprising fashion. The only reason I am not laying the points with Tulsa against Tulane is for that reason. Tulane has Houston on deck on Sunday. They have broken 70 pts three times since mid December. Tulsa’s defensive points allowed may throw you off a bit here, but their recent matchups have been Wichita State, Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati and UConn where they have had spotty defense.

I like our chances under 147 tonight.

PLAY: TULSA/TULANE under 147

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays, including many live betting play selections. +40 units in the last 7 days in all sports.

NBA Premium Plays 2/13/19

By
557355
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We’ve got a few Premium quality plays available tonight

Pacers just aren’t a match for Milwaukee, the fact that they’re on a 7 game win streak leads me to believe they’ll fall well short tonight vs a tough matchup maybe the toughest in the east

Bucks -4.5 

 

Boston Players have said that they enjoy their roles better without Kyrie, its a back to back but the all star break is on the other side and Detroit isn’t good.

Celtics -4 

 

Harden will play & look to extend his streak, Minnesota can play but short handed; can they score enough to keep pace with Houston? I dont think so.

Rockets -4 

NBA free play

By
557355
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We only have a couple more days left until the all star break. So why not turn our attention to the traveling all stars (Warriors). They travel to Portland on a tear, 11 wins in a row, 17 of 18. To say the least they’ve found a groove, without Boogie preforming at his highest capability. Portland has struggled losing the last 3, and will look to turn it around before the break. I feel like Golden State is dialed in and will want to end the 1st half strong, theyve struggled in 1st quarters lately but so Portland 1st quarter is worth a look. I think a one possession number is valuable when this team is clicking, its not your typical back to back; A lot of these guys are getting a break so they’ll be ready.
Pick: Warriors -3

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS

Get On The ATS Train With Sam Houston State

By
CoverTheProfit
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If you have bet Sam Houston State with your eyes closed this season, you have profited handsomely. They roll into Texas A&M Corpus Christi (TAM-CC) as 4 point favorites. They are 18-3 ATS this season, 11-0 in conference play, 11-2 on the road. The last time they didn’t cover was December 1, 2018! TAM-CC is 3-5 ATS at home and 4-6 in conference play. I could probably just end it here, but I will give some other nuggets that support the play:

In the last 2 weeks of play, they are averaging 87 ppg, with great point distribution on the court, having two guards average double digits and their center averaging double digits. TAM-CC relies heavily on scoring from primarily one player, Kareem South, a guard averaging 37 min per game, and 19.67 ppg over the last two weeks. TAM-CC ranks 305th in adjusted offensive efficiency having played less efficient defenses (165th) than Sam Houston State’s adjusted defensive efficiency rank of 127.

One of Sam Houston State’s offensive strengths is the fact that they rank 41st in the country in 3-point distribution, also a key weakness in TAM-CC’s defense, ranking 292nd.

My blended power rating has Sam Houston State -8.

PLAY: Sam Houston State -4.

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.

NBA Under – Free Pick

By
CoverTheProfit
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I am recommending that you consider playing under 226 in New Orleans tonight as they face off against Orlando. At first glance, seeing New Orleans averaging 113 ppg on the season and some of their high scoring match-ups might make you question. Here are some reasons why I like the Under at 226:

New Orleans is only 3-7 SU last 10 games. L3 H2H, the totals have averaged 212 and unders went 2-1. L10 H2H, the totals average 194 and Under is 8-2. NO Unders have cashed in 4 of last 6 games, and 9 of last 13 against Orlando, 4 of last 5 at home against Orlando. Against tougher defenses, NO has shown it can’t score near it’s statistical season average. New Orleans is playing its 3rd game in 5 days. New Orleans unders are 16-13 when they are a favorite, and 4-1 against Southeast Division opponents.

Orlando is surrendering 106 ppg on the road this season, holding opponents to 45.18 FG% and has held opponents to 101 L3 games. The Under is 20-13 in conference play for Orlando and 17-12 on the road this season. Orlando has some recent standout defensive performances, holding opponents to low totals, such as: Atlanta 108, Milwaukee 83 (sans Jannis), Brooklyn 89, Houston 103, Washington 95. These games all occurred since January 25th. Orlando road totals average 209 on the season and they have held opponents to 104.8 ppg L5.

Play: ORL/NOR Under 226 ; lean NOR team total under 115.5

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.

NHL FULL CARD – FREE

By
CoverTheProfit
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I am sharing my NHL card for tonight with all of you as free plays. While some of them have some juice, if you follow NHL betting you are seeing first period OVER 1.5’s cashing at a high rate. There are a couple of match-ups tonight that I think are prime for at least 2 first period goals, and like many others, I am not afraid to risk some juice here. Some may not agree with this betting strategy, and from a long term betting philosophy standpoint, I whole-heartedly agree. However, I like to dabble with the first period angles from time to time.

Columbus First Period ML -145 – Washington comes in fat and happy off a big win by a big margin last night against Los Angeles. I like to fade teams in the first period on back to back nights involving travel who are playing winning teams.

Chicago/Boston First Period Over 1.5 – 160 – Chicago first period overs have been cashing at a very decent rate. Chicago is playing lights out offensively and they have struggled stopping the puck on defense.

Calgary/Tampa Bay First Period Over 1.5 -190 – This play goes without saying and is by far the juiciest I have ever played. But, I have confidence in this play selection. Calgary games average 3 goals in the first period over the L5 games and tonight they face Tampa Bay on the road.

Carolina/Ottawa Over 6 -125 – Ottawa is solid offensively at home and Carolina comes in as a very efficient offense. Over has cashed 4 of last 6 times when Carolina has traveled to Ottawa.

St. Louis First Period -0.5 +125 AND New Jersey/St. Louis First Period Over 1.5 -125 – I also like to fade struggling teams on the road against superior teams, most notably teams who have solid L5 offensive performances. St. Louis fits this mold tonight, outscoring opponents in the first period 5-1 in the last five match ups against much stiffer competition. New Jersey, on the other hand, has a -10 goal scoring margin on the road this season over 27 games and averages 1.33 goals surrendered on the road on the season.

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.

San Diego State Matches Up Well Tonight

By
CoverTheProfit
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San Diego State travels to Colorado State tonight as a 2 point favorite. I am recommending a play tonight with San Diego State as a short road favorite. From purely a matchup standpoint, much of Colorado State’s offensive production comes from 2 pt baskets down low from Junior, 6-11 Center, Nico Carvacho. He is on the floor 78% over the course of the season and 84% recently. Much of their offense runs through either he or JD Paige.

SDSU deploys two 5’s, standing at 6-9 and 6-11 with big frames who share time 65/30. Additionally, their top rebounder, Jalen McDaniels, typically plays the 4 and matches up athletically and height wise (standing at 6-10). SDSU wins the both the offensive and defensive rebound battle (OFF Rebound Rank: SDSU/118, CSU/293) in stat comparisons here and there is a significant advantage in defensive efficiency. More bodies in the post who taller than an opponents’ bodies, coupled with a significant offensive rebound advantage, leads to second chance points with high efficiency FG% numbers. CSU ranks 300th in defensive FG% efficiency, and SDSU ranks 135th in offensive FG efficiency.

I look for SDSU to attempt to get Carvacho in foul trouble early, and if they can, they have neutralized Colorado State’s primary source of offensive production. That leaves JD Paige, their only other double digit scorer, to pick up the pieces. I don’t think that can get the job done tonight where SDSU has two guards, Watson and Hemsley, who both average double digits and match up well against Paige. Carvacho’s presence is key for Colorado State, but SDSU wins the average height comparison, ranked 59th in the country compared to 241st for CSU.

When I looked at my blended power rating lines for this matchup, I have SDSU -4.8 tonight. Colorado State ranks 301st in defensive efficiency and with 3 guys scoring double digits for SDSU, I don’t see how CSU can win here tonight, and the short number tells me there is value enough to make a play.

PLAY: SDSU -2

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.

NCAA Basketball Plays – Tuesday Two-Pack – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Michigan State vs Wisconsin +1 – O/U 128

This game could not have set up more nicely for Wisconsin. Michigan State has been a force in the non conference as well as big 10 play all the way up to the point where Joshua Langford was announced out for the season and then they dropped 3 games in a row against some very inferior teams like Illinois and Indiana. The fact that they were able to bounce back at home against the likes of Minnesota really makes me like this spot for Wisconsin. Michigan State is the best in effective FG percentage, as well as offensive rebounding, second in free throws but they really lack in turnover % and the glaring thing to me is that they really started to struggle when they got into the tougher part of the big 10 schedule. This Spartans team still hasn’t had any of their games vs Michigan and I think their stats may be a bit stale. Wisconsin on the other hand has already played Michigan twice, Maryland twice, Purdue once and is coming off of a good loss where they only had 2 free throw attempts in a let down spot at Michigan. Now Wisconsin isn’t a good rebounding or free throw kind of team but I think where they will get an advantage in this game is Ethan Happ drawing the double team down low kicking it out to all their 3 point shooters such as Trice, Reuvers, Ford and Davison. Wisconsin ranks 2nd in 3 point shooting in the Big 10 and 2nd in turnover percentage. These are 2 key stats for playing at home that can crush a great team. The biggest thing to me is looking at the home/road splits. Wisconsin averages 11 points more at home than on the road while Michigan State averages 11 points less than they do at home on the road. Lastly might be important to remember that Wisconsin has covered the spread against Sparty their last 2 games and that was a very injured Badger team. Wisconsin Rolls.

Wisconsin +1 lean under 128

Purdue vs Maryland +2.5 O/U 141

Just like in football sometimes pace of play doesn’t really tell the whole story. If you look at both of these teams, they are both in the top 3 for slowest play in the big 10 only rivaled by Wisconsin. Let’s dig a little deeper. In most of the games that Maryland played, they were either destroying the teams that they have played or getting destroyed meaning the winning team was running the clock out at the end. Their last 5 games the average margin of victory of the winning team was 13 points. The same applies to Purdue who is the best shooting team in the big 10 having an average margin of victory of 14 points their last 5 games. As a matter of fact, Purdue hasn’t scored under 70 points since January 8th vs Sparty. Purdue averages an amazing 77.5 points per game on the road while Maryland averages 78 at home. Purdue also gives up about 76 on the road while Maryland gives up 68. Looking at this line being so close, it is telling me that there will be some points scored at the end of the game and I would not be surprised if it goes to 150.

Over 141 big and lean Maryland +2.5

Back to the UNDER Well tonight in the Big Sky

By
CoverTheProfit
-

Last week I posted an UNDER play selection when Portland State traveled to N. Colorado. I am recommending that we fire on another UNDER here when they travel to Sacramento State as 4 point underdogs. If you like this play, jump on it quick. It opened at 141 and is down to 139.5 and likely to fall (maybe to 137.5ish). Portland State UNDER bets have cashed at the rate of 14-5 on the season, 5-0 L5, 7-3 in conference, and 9-2 on the road. This will be Portland State’s 4th straight road game in 12 days, traveling to Weber State, then 2 days later to Idaho, then 5 days later to Northern Colorado, back home and on the road again down the coast 400+ miles to Sacramento.

Likewise, Sacramento State UNDER bets have cashed 11-6 on the season, 4-1 L5, and 7-4 in conference play. Sacramento is finally home after a 3 game road trip traveling everywhere mentioned above. Their last three matchups have a combined total of 132 ppg. First game off a three game road trip angles have been historically significant with a theory that the returning home team may be reeling from the lingering travel effects and the distractions of returning home and getting back into taking care of the remainder of their responsibilities that they don’t have to focus on while on the road. Sacramento State is ranked 133rd in the country in adjusted defense

Head to head, this matchup has cashed UNDERS in 5 of the last 6 times when Portland State plays in Sacramento.

While I admit that I wish this number was in the mid 140’s in order to fire away here, I still think there are plenty of factors worthy of considering a wager on the UNDER.

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.

PLAY: Portland State/Sacramento State under 139.5 (buy price – 138)

Daytona Clash

By
557355
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NASCAR season is upon us, they’ve been making an active effort to incorporate gambling into the sport. Luckily for us, I’m from the NASCAR capital, have capped this sports for 5 years now and have been to hundreds of races in my life. With such a shift in the sport, not only with wagers but they have a new package ready to go for the 2019 season and we are ready to go and get some dough over the next 40 weeks, with that being said. The Clash which is NASCAR’s exhibition race that kicks off the 2019 Speedweeks takes place at 3PM today. This race is ran at Daytona International Speedway and betting on the Superspeedway tracks (Daytona & Talladega) require a different approach. The most interesting thing about plate racing is that literally anyone has a shot to win. With that being said, there are certain drivers that are really good at plate racing and some drivers struggle. In normal races I prefer to pick head to head matchups, and bet smaller on race winner; but with plate racing it is best to pick the race winner because you get a lot more value than a typical race. This race has no implications on the points for the season so everyone is trying to do one thing. Win!

The odds to win are listed below:

HARVICK 7/1
KESELOWSKI 7/1

LOGANO 7/1
ALMIROLA 10/1

BOWYER 10/1
ELLIOTT 10/1

HAMLIN 10/1
BLANEY 12/1

BUSCH 12/1
SUAREZ 16/1

BUSCH 16/1
TRUEX Jr 20/1

BOWMAN 20/1
JONES 25/1

JOHNSON 25/1
LARSON 30/1

MENARD 30/1
McMURRAY 30/1

DILLON 30/1
NEWMAN 30/1

The best approach is to pick 2/3 of the favorites, 1/2 mid-pack drivers, and one long shot. I usually try to pick 4/5 drivers max. Depending on what your budget is for the race will determine the winnings. For me, I will work with a $200 budget.

Brad Keselowski +700 – $55 to win $385 ($240 net profit with win)

Joey Logano +700 – $55 to win $385  ($240 net profit with win)

Ryan Blaney +1200 – $35 to win $420 ($250 net profit with win)

Kyle Busch +1200 – $35 to win $420 ($250 net profit with win)

Kyle Larson +3000 – $20 to win $600 ($420 net profit with win)

DraftKings can also be a very profitable venture, my free lineup for todays Race is
(1) Kurt Busch
(9) Chase Elliott
(10) Aric Almirola
(11) Denny Hamlin
(19) Martin Truex Jr
(22) Joey Logano

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS
NBA Free play will be out shortly

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