We have been on fire lately in baseball and why slow down now! Fair warning is that I am going against the money here. Everyone is looking at the forecast seeing 10 MPH winds blowing out to right field making people bet the over. Well I think this thing got a little to high with pitchers like Kyle Hendricks is boasting a 3.07 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. Chris Bassitt isn’t too shabby either at 3.84 ERA but a 1.17 WHIP. Kyle hasn’t given up 3 runs at home since June 4th this year. More importantly, cubs players are dropping like flys to injuries such as Kris Bryant Banged up, Craig Kimbrell and Wilson Contreres. Checking another wind site it looks like it is more blowing sideways to the right field foul line rather than straight out. This is also a let down spot for the Cubs after sweeping the BrewCrew. I don’t want to fade the Cubbies at home but the under is now in play for me.
August is here and College Football is back! We have a Mega-Podcast here for you today! Kiev first talks about how Wisconsin just scheduled Alabama in 2024 and 2025. The OddsBreakers then welcome back Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks from www.huntersportspicks.com for a complete break-down of all of the teams in the Big 10 and the Big 12! Starting with the Big 10, we go into great depth on strength of schedules, returning production, performance from the prior season and player/coaching changes. We discuss season win totals, conference/divisional futures and teams that may be good in the totals market as well as ATS. We give out MANY picks here so get your plays in and let’s cash those tickets!
#sportsbetting #gamblingtwitter #NCAA
Should you need a sports book please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com/betonline for a 50% signup bonus for first time users. Terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @OBKiev #theoddsbreakers
We have a HUGE show for you today! FANTASY FOOTBALL IS BACK and we have the best in the business D-Nasty @dnastyfantasy to break down the early fantasy season. Rather than pre-ranking players this early we decided to give you some real value to prepare for the season. We first cover our top 24 guys and then get into the preseason position battles so you know how often the players will get the ball and who will be backing them up. True handcuffs and percentage of carriers are covered in detail. Next we go into rookie dynasty drafts and which players are really going to make a bang for 2019. lots of underrated guys out there early! Then, Cub Fan Danny @cubfandanny comes in to break down some fights for UFC 240. Finally Danny gives us a few of this thoughts on NFL season win totals.
#sportsbetting #gamblingtwitter #NFL
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” for a 50% signup bonus for first time users. Terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
Mountain West: Going to see some big changes in this conference this year. I think if we dig deep, we can find some value in the wagering markets. Both Boise State and Fresno State lost their quarterback last year as well as their skill positions so we can’t bet on them. Boise also has some terrible Odds at -110 to win the conference. Utah State was amazing last year but this team returns only their quarterback Jordan Love and a left tackle on their entire offense. Utah State also have Gary Anderson back at coach after all these years after losing Matt Wells. I am not a fan of Anderson and really did not like seeing what he did for Wisconsin and Oregon State. San Diego State and Hawaii are the most intriguing to me because they are in the easier west division returning the most production. Fresno State is very down returning only 36% production ranking only 129th out of 130 teams. Now Hawaii started out great last year but we quickly learned mid-season that Navy and Colorado State were not good teams and Rainbow Warriors faltered to 5-8-1 ATS finishing the season in the negative in yards per play. On the other hand, San Diego State was a net positive .4 yards per play and checks the boxes of:
Good returning Production at 67%
Consistency at coach Rocky Long and QB Ryan Agnew
Great schedule avoiding Boise State and AirForce while getting Utah State, Wyoming, Nevada and Fresno State all at home.
In 2018 they didn’t return much production so these kids were mainly new to the program.
I don’t love how they finished their season last year but they had an excuse losing to Fresno State taking them out of the MWC Championship.
I could take the +475 for the Aztecs to win the MWC or just play +160 to win the West division. I did the break even analysis for the hedge on the extra game and decided that the -121 break-even price is too low against likely Boise State in the championship game. Here is the calculation. We get paid a total of $100 of our money at risk plus the $160 that we win with just the west divisional bet and our $100 plus the $475 that we win for the conference. $575 – $260x = 0. X= a factor of 2.21. (2.21-1)*-100 = -121 or decimal odds of 1.83 [(100/121) + 1]. You would have to lay $315 on Boise to get paid the $260 you would have gotten paid on the divisional ticket for the hedge (so either way you get your $260). According to most power ratings, Boise State will be favored by much more than -121 break even line so lets just take the +160 play to win the West. I also like their season win total over 8 because they have 2 very winnable non conference games against Weber State and New Mexico State.
San Diego State +160 to win the MWC West division and over 8 wins – both 1 star
We leave lobster country behind and head to Long Pond PA and the site of this weeks NASCAR race. Pocono has become like a road course for the cup cars and with that knowledge, some of my pics will reflect that. Before we totally leave NHMS behind I want to say, I am happy that Harvick was able to score the victory (which was predicted in last weeks post). Also, did you know that if you would have taken Harvick to win last week it was at +775.
It looks like 5dimes has tightened things up this week. Gonna be a tough one, but I feel pretty good we can find some good head to head matchups. Now on to Pocono.
Jimmie Johnson -135 vs William Byron +105
This is a battle of teammates and one a year ago a look at this, would have been an easy pick. This year is a different story. Byron has only 3 career starts but has an average finish of 11 along with 1 pole. Johnson has 3 career wins however his last was in 2013. In his last 5 races, JJ has an average finish of 23rd. Tide is shifting at Hendrick and because of that, I am taking Byron and his slight plus money. This will be a 20 unit wager for me this week.
Kyle Larson -135 vs Clint Boyer +105
Yes, Kyle Larson runs well on road courses. Yes, Kyle Larson has been running well (except last week). But those two reasons do not overshadow he has an average finish at Pocono of 18.2 in his last 5 including a 26th place run there a month ago. Boyer finished top 5 in that same race and has an average finish of 11.8 over the same 5 races. Boyer is a heck of a road racer. I really like Boyer here. This is a 30 unit wager for me.
Denny Hamlin -155 vs Chase Elliott +125
At one point and time, Denny Hamlin was the master of Pocono. He won his first career cup race on this track. However, that was long ago. So far back it was before the COT. Chase has 5 top 10s in his last 5 at Pocono. He has an average finish of 7.8 in his last five, while Hamlin has an average finish of 13.4 over that same period. I like consistency and Elliott is just that, consistent. This is gonna get a small 10 unit wager from me this week on Elliott.
Just one more thing before I go, keep an eye on Erik Jones this weekend. I really like this kid at this track. I couldn’t find anything in the head to head matchups but look at him to be top 5 and contend for the win along with Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.
If you have read this far, shoot me a message on twitter @ohiosportfan740 and let me know what you think or if you have any ideas as to what you might like to see in future posts. Good Luck!!!
First let’s talk about the line movement and all I got to say is WOW. Thurman opened as -130 favorite and is now as high as +150 dog. This would have been a great opportunity for a middle if someone anticipated the big line movement. When I first saw the line movement I thought that maybe I had missed something because I bet Thurman on the open at -132. I went back and rewatched both boxers past 3 fights to make sure I wasn’t missing nothing. I also watched the weigh ins to make sure that Keith didn’t have a bad weight cut. I saw nothing to raise my concern so I bet him again at +143. Thurman is the younger, bigger fighter with more punching power. Keith is also the better pure boxer with a longer reach. So if you can find Keith at +120 or better I would recommend betting him.
Not a huge difference between these two lefties Quintana and Lucchesi. Both ERAs are close to 4. Cubs rank 15th in the MLB vs Left handed pitchers and the Padres rank 25th. It is quite windy out and the total is up to 12. Quintana’s fly ball rate is 31% while Lucchesi’s is 35%. All signs point to a Cubs victory. Keep it simple guys.
Last year Notre Dame took advantage of what I consider was a weaker schedule then most people would consider. The Fighting Irish lost six impact players to nfl with DT Jerry Tilery (R1,28), WR Miles Bokykins (R3,29), DE Julian love(R4,28), LB Drue Tranquill (R4,28), RB Dexter Williams (R6,21) TE Alize Mack (R7,17). Yes I know that starting QB Ian Book returns with 4 of his starting O line and a good WR core. The defense only returns 6 starts and that where I think that the lack of impact players will cause ND problems. Also this group of players also won five games last year by only one score. Now lets take a look at the tough road schedule with games at Georgia, Michigan Sandford and Duke. To make matters worst ND has a stretch of games against VA Tech, at Duke, Navy and BC where all four of these teams would be coming off a bye. With all these factors and with what I consider a hard schedule this year do to the improvement of the competition. I have no choice but to go under 9.5 on the Fighting Irish season win total especially with us being able to get the hook.
We have a fantastic show for you today! First we cover some more states that passed the bill to legalize sports wagering. Then former NFL player and accomplished NFL analyst Ross Tucker from NBC Sports, Sirius XM and podcast ‘Even Money’ comes on to discuss the NFL! We first talk about how it was to be an Offensive Lineman in the 2000s and snapping to Tom Brady. Next, we get into a particular rule change for the 2019 NFL season that may greatly affect the way the game is called. Later, we get into some plays and discuss some NFL season win totals on a high level. Finally, Kiev gives out a season win total play in the ACC for the 2019 college football season.
#sportsbetting #gamblingtwitter #NFL
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag and use the promo code, “theoddsbreakers” for a 50% signup bonus for first time users. Terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
Gotta go with what is hot and that is the Cubs after the all-star break. Every year this team seems to catch their stride in July. Looking at these pitchers it is obvious that Luis Castillo of the Reds is killing it this year at a 2.29ERA, but Kyle Hendricks is the Cubs Ace this year at 3.49ERA and he should be able to be almost as good if not better than Castillo at home. Looking at the price at -140 with the Cubs having better bats and playing at home, I think this one is worth a small shot.
