Home Blog Page 629

NCAA Hoops plays February 8th and 9th

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

February 8th

Kent State vs Akron -4 O/U 134

Kent state is 4-3-1 ATS away and Akron is 3-6 ATS at home. Both of these teams are very middle of the road with Kent State playing faster and the better offense with Akron the slower team with the better defense. Who controls the pace of this game is my big question? Kent State only shoots 40.6% on the road but the Zips only shoot a tad over 43% at home. Akron is coming off of a terrible shooting performance at only 28% field goal percentage so this is a small system play for me but not too confident.

Akron -4 small and lean under 134 

Lets go to the MAAC. I think that you may really like this game Kyle!

Siena vs Manhattan+1 O/U 113 One of the lowest totals of the year

Manhattan ranks 341st in adjusted tempo on Kenpom while Siena ranks 352 out of 353 teams. The only slower team is Virginia. Siena is 8-3 ATS as an away team and Manhattan is 5-5 ATS at home this year. Manhattan has been terrible this year but somehow won their last 3 games at home. The Jaspers already lost at Siena this year 50-43 so revenge may be on their minds. Manhattan has even played slower in conference by 1 possession per game and almost a second more for average possession length. I have this game Sienna 56 – 55 and will probably bet the under.

Under 113 small

February 10th

Wisconsin vs Michigan -5 O/U 121

Well I have already Capped this game in Wisconsin and was successful when the Badgers handed the Wolverines their first loss of the season. Wisconsin is a good road team at 6-3 ATS on the road while Michigan is 6-8 at home. You have to see that this is a huge revenge spot for Michigan because they remember well that first loss and terrible shooting percentage that they had against Wisconsin. From a metrics standpoint Wisconsin’s pack line defense matches up well against the Wolverines because they are a dribble drive type team but they do not shoot the ball well at only 35% from 3. Ethan Happ is a mismatch for Jon Teske or pretty much anyone who plays him. My question is how motivated will Wisconsin be? They just beat their rival Minnesota and got revenge, they already beat Michigan once and have to now face them on the road. They have a wounded Michigan State team on deck at home. This is kind of a sandwich spot. I think that defense travels and you will see Wisconsin give Michigan some fits but I am really not willing to jump on side here. The easiest way to beat Wisconsin is to get Happ in foul trouble and on the road that is very likely to happen against one of the best coaches in Jon Bieline. I however do like the under in this game down to about 116 because Wisconsin’s defense should travel.

Wisconsin under 121

Kentucky vs Mississippi State +2 O/U 142

Kentucky is 5-1 ATS on the road and 13-9 overall. My theory on this is because of that meaningless Duke game they played and got blown out. There still may be some value because of this. Mississippi State is 8-10 ATS overall and 6-6 at home. Kentucky is 7-0 ATS their last 7 games and it is because of how Reid Travis and PJ Washington are such a force inside the paint. The only way to beat Kentucky in my opinion is by being able to hit the 3 at a consistent basis. Mississippi state ranks 60th in three point percentage which isn’t nearly enough. They are also coming off of an overtime game against LSU where they had the lead and choked it away just on Wednesday. I do not see how they can bounce back from that and I love Kentucky all the way to -5.

Kentucky -2 BIG all the way to -5

Washington vs ASU +2 O/U 139

Arizona State is 7-5 ATS at home while Washington is a wonderful 5-1 ATS away. The Huskies haven’t even lost a Pac 12 game yet this year. The Huskies are great and have been flying under the radar but I also think that Arizona State is clearly the second best team to me in the Pac 12. Being that Washington beat Arizona and ASU lost to WASU on thursday, I see a bounce back spot for the Sun Devils. I like a small play on the home dog here but just a lean at Pickem. I will most likely be playing the UNDER 139 on the short rest

ASU +2 small – Under 139

Duke vs Virginia -5 O/U 135

How can you not love this game. Offense vs Defense. Slow vs Fast. I have seen these spots before and Duke always seems to show up big. Probably will take the dog if over 3 points here. Duke Ranks 4th in the nation in adjusted offense and adjusted defense. Virginia ranks a whopping (for them) 5th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense. Key for me is Ty Jerome’s injury for Virginia. If he is out then I like this game down to a Pick-em for Duke. If he is in then I like this line down to + 2.5 for Duke. These kind of games really end up close not only cause these teams are both great but because the officiating seems to always favor the team that is currently losing Duke is the truth this year and it always seems to go right for this team.

Duke +5 big

NHL 1st Period Situational Play Worth a Look

By
CoverTheProfit
-

I have my eyes on a 3-way first period play in the sole game on the NHL slate tonight in New York where the Carolina Hurricanes travel to meet up with the New York Rangers. Both teams come off overtime games where they had similar winning results (sorry for those who tailed my UNDER play in the Bruins/Rangers game that had the tying 6th goal scored in last couple minutes of the 3rd period).

Tonight, this play is purely situational for me, and I think there are some numbers that can back this up. At the risk of sounding like the guy who says “If I would have made some puts my score would be awesome”, I very badly wanted to take the Rangers in the 1st period against Boston. I wanted to because of the raw numbers. Tonight, I am going to recommend you take them, not JUST because I wish I had played it the other night, BUT more so because of the situation.

The Rangers have at least a day of rest over the Canes here. The Canes are solid and many score projection sites have models that would assume they cover ATS against the Rangers. But, knowing that the Canes went into OT last night, and are on their 3rd road game in as many days, and face two more road games after tonight, this is a sandwich spot here for the Canes that I think provides a reason to look at the Rangers in the first period.

On Bovada, as an example, you can take the Rangers 3-way betting line in the first period for +180. From a long term betting perspective, in the NHL especially, these are the kind of sweet spots to look for given there is so much positive EV.

Stats to back up the play: Rangers at home first period GF/GA – 25/18 on the season; Canes averaging 2.6 goals in division play and 2.8 in road games while giving up 3.1 gpg on the road. Opponents shooting 12.6% L4 games against Mrazek who is slated in the posts tonight for Carolina; Lundqvuist solid at home holding opponents to 9%. Rangers home defense ranks 9th in goals allowed compared to Canes road offense ranking of 20th in goals scored. Will the Canes outperform their season rankings (which assumes ups and downs through the year) off a B2B road game, without rest, playing their third road game in 4 days? Worth investing that they won’t!

Play: Rangers 1st Period 3-way line +180

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays. Best of Luck!

Podcast 9 – 19 – Wagering The Weekend with Kyle Hunter and Dan Everett – College Basketball Plays February 8th – 9th – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-
Sports Betting
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping

We have a jam-packed show for you today! Kiev opens up the show with his big 10 rankings. Professional handicapper Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks is back! We first discuss some NCAA Coaches and their rising and falling values. Then we get into some teams that may be under and over valued as well as some NCAA tournament sleepers. Next we get into some great games for the weekend. Finally Dan Everett @dedgesportpicks is back and comes in firing with his Big east rankings and games for Saturday.

NCAA: Duke vs Virginia, Kentucky vs Mississippi State, Wisconsin vs Michigan, Washington vs ASU, Kent State vs Akron, Siena vs Manhattan, Providence vs St Johns, Depaul vs Xavier, Villanova vs Marquette.

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers”  terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a monmth please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers

Reddit:  r/the-odds-breakers
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theoddsbreakers/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/theoddsbreakers

Sports Betting & Wagering

NBA free play

By
557355
-

You can catch tonights free play on TNT when Lebron brings the Lakers to TD Garden. Funny to see this two, both supposed front runners in the AD Race meet hours after the trade window closes. It’s likely the race will resume in the summer, it’s also likely Luke Walton lost the locker room and his job. Lakers don’t look cohesive, or focused for that matter. These national spots also tend to bring the best out, It wouldn’t surprise me to see Lebron wheel the Lakers to a back door cover, it also wouldn’t surprise me to see a repeat of what we saw from LA in Indiana. Ultimately I see this being like an Eastern Conference game from 2013 in the low 200s.
Pick: Lakers/Celtics under 227

Lay UNDER in the Big Sky tonight

By
CoverTheProfit
-

I have released an UNDER play that I think is worthy of consideration in a Big Sky Conference matchup between Portland State and Northern Colorado. This is purely a conference play total’s play angle here with trends to back up the play.

Here are some results that back up the play: Unders are 16-5 combined in conference play between these two squads, 9-1 combined in last five games for each team, 15-5 combined in last 10 games for each team. Portland State unders are 8-2 on the road on the season and 13-5 in total on the season. In the last two weeks, offenses have averaged totals of 136, L4 weeks – 143. Portland State has the 257th ranked adjusted offense and they have faced the 326th ranked adjusted defenses. N. Colorado comes into this game ranked 190th in adjusted defense and their strength of schedule numbers suggest that Portland State’s offensive output is not anything they can’t handle.

Total is sitting at 146.5 at the time of this article.

Play: Under 146.5

Follow me on twitter @CoverTheProfit for other content and free plays.

Summit Conference Free Play

By
CoverTheProfit
-

I think the wrong team is favored here in Vermillion, South Dakota tonight and recommend a play with the road team, Nebraska-Omaha here tonight. My blended power ratings here have Neb-Omaha a -4 favorite tonight on the road at South Dakota. I think the books are overvaluing home court here for South Dakota as their statistical matrics shouldn’t make South Dakota a favorite.

Neb-Omaha has the 53th ranked adjusted offense according to KenPom. Now, I recognize that you will look at their 305th ranked adjusted defense and pause with some concern. While that ranking is suspicious, their average opponent’s adjusted offense is ranked 160th in the country. South Dakota’s offense is a far cry from that, averaging 66 ppg and ranked 234th in adjusted offense while facing opponent’s defenses averaging 274th in the country. Couple those matchup favorables with the fact that these two teams play two different styles. Neb-Omaha pushes the pace at 108th in adjusted tempo, whereas South Dakota slows things down – ranked 256th in adjusted tempo. If South Dakota wishes to chew clock, they have to be efficient in their points per possession – something they are not great at.

On the season, against stiffer defenses, Neb-Omaha is remarkably efficient in their two point field goals, averaging 40.4 ppg from 2, contrasted to 32.7 for South Dakota. From 3, their margins are equally similar, where Neb-Omaha averages 27.6 ppg from 3 compared to 19.6 ppg from 3 for South Dakota. These margins are significant when the spread is Neb-Omaha +1.

In order to back South Dakota here, you have to be banking that they will outpeform their season and conference statistical performances to date, and the data just doesn’t back that up. They will have to force Neb-Omaha to be less efficient offensively, and while Neb-Omaha has a lot of work to do on the defensive end, you’d have to believe that South Dakota has more offensive firepower here than their opponent. I don’t see that happening and feel like the wrong team here is favored.

Play: Neb-Omaha +1. I have released this as a multi-unit play for my twitter followers.

Follow me on twitter @CoverTheProfit for other content and free plays.

HORIZON LEAGUE FREE PLAY

By
CoverTheProfit
-

UW-GB is a small road favorite at Cleveland State on February 7. Currently, at open the line sits at -3.5. I see this line having the potential to be bet up to at least 5 or 6 and there is early value if you jump on it. Cleveland State looks to likely be without Kasheem Thomas and Jaalam Hill based upon their current injury reports. Both players log key minutes which is important given the pace of play for both of these teams and their need for fresh legs.

From a purely power rating standpoint, my blended power rating system has UW-GB by 7 here. UW-GB averaging 83 ppg on the season compared to CLE ST sitting around 72 ppg on the season but just 68 ppg over the last 4 weeks (conference play). When I evaluate conference play matchups, I tend to put some stock in their common opponent results – especially common conference opponents. Looking at how UW-GB handled its business against in state rival UW-M supports looking at UW-GB here. UW-GB is 15-3 L18 matchups head to head.

Play: UW-GB -3.5.

Follow me on twitter @CoverTheProfit for other content and free plays

Boston Out For Revenge Tonight in NHL

By
CoverTheProfit
-

The Bruins travel to New York tonight to take on the Rangers. These two faced off on January 19 in Boston where the Rangers beat the Bruins who were a -260 favorite. I don’t necessarily want to back either side tonight, but the situation has me looking at the Under. Boston is a -150 favorite tonight but there is more value in the Under currently sitting at -120 most places.

I look for Boston to take this game to a physical level tonight, and be stingy in shot opportunities. If Boston can limit power play opportunities here, the Under has a great shot, and I believe the numbers give it the edge.

Here are some stats/trends to back the play:

UNDER WINS with BOSTON

31-19-3 on the season, which is significant

17-7-1 on the road, and 16 of last 22 on the road have cashed under tickets.

5-0 when revenging a home loss (key situation here)

7-2 when playing B2B

8-4 second half of the season

UNDER WINS with NEW YORK

3-1 when playing a winning team second half of season

12-6 when at home with a total of 6

PLAY UNDER 6 Goals

Follow me on twitter @CoverTheProfit for other content and free plays.

NBA Under Worth a Look in Milwaukee

By
CoverTheProfit
-

I am looking at the Under in the Bucks/Wizards matchup today. There are some strong statistics and trends that back this play, especially with the number at 230. Bucks Unders have made you money in 5 of the last 7 games, 4 of the last 5 at home, 6 of the last 8 times head to head, and 4 of the last 5 times head to head at home. WASH offensively is a different team on the road, averaging 108 ppg on the road, compared to 117 at home. The Bucks have shown some tough defensive displays recently, holding opponents under 115 or less in 8 of last 10 games. These two teams matched up on February 2 and the score was 131-115 but that was in Washington. H2H, this output is not consistent with their recent performances and I don’t see the Wizards outperforming expectations here. Bucks at home after 5 road games gives me another reason to back the under here. It opened at 230 and has hovered there. Clearly there is not an Over market here to move the total and that is a key indicator for me that at 230 the under is worth a look

Play: Wizards/Bucks under 230

Southland Conference Small Road Favorite Worth a Look

By
CoverTheProfit
-

I have my eyes on a matchup in the Southland Conference where Abilene Christian is on the road tonight taking on LAMAR. The current line has Abilene Christian favored by 1. This is worth a look in my opinion. KenPom rates Abilene Christian as the 162nd adjusted offense and 189th ranked adjusted defense. These rankings out of 353 teams are noteworthy given that the Southland Conference is not one that catches most of our eyes.

Abilene Christian has a 52.7% effective FG% (EFP) as compared to LAMAR at 46.9%. I consider that gap to be statistically significant with a -1 pt spread. Additionally, take LAMAR’s relatively mediocre offensive efficiency and match it up against Abilene Christian’s defense who gives up an average of 66.8 ppg whereas LAMAR is surrendering 75.9 ppg and opponents shoot 53.2% EFP. Abilene Christian outscores their opponents on the season by 4.5 pts, compared to LAMAR with a -3.2 score margin.

I use a blended composite power rating system, where I blend several solid CBB power rating systems, and weight them according to my confidence in their numbers and further now add special weight to in-conference play. My power rating line has Abilene Christian favored by almost 9 pts on a neutral, and it is up to each sports bettor to determine what kind of home court advantage you would provide a specific team, from a specific conference, in any specific matchup. Even if you take the so-called average home court advantage of 3/3.18/3.5 pts here, there is line value. Given LAMAR’s lackluster defensive statistics and their tempo, this has a slight potential for an over consideration with the total currently sitting at 141. There is some correlation in my opinion when we get to conference play with teams of above average tempo and small spreads to overs. The theory here is that there could be some back and forth action with lead changes which tends to support higher scoring affairs than average statistics.

PLAY: Abilene Christian -1

LEAN: Over 141

Follow me on twitter @CoverTheProfit for other content and free plays.

1...628629630...664Page 629 of 664