Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
Getting closer to the madness! We first get into the Big 10 team rankings and then discuss 2 trends that have been money. Professional handicapper Brian Edwards @vegasbedwards comes back to discuss some SEC. We first talk about how these teams should be ranked. We then take a look at the NCAA men’s future’s market. Finally we get into some of the games from a large card this weekend and UFC 235!
NCAA: Rhode Island vs Dayton, LSU vs Alabama, Nevada vs Utah State, Michigan State vs Indiana, Kentucky vs Tennessee and Michigan vs Maryland
#UFC 235 Jon Jones vs Anthony Smith and more!
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There are two matches in the English Premier League and one in the Scotland Premiership League that offer three money lines that you can parlay for what appears to be a solid profit making play selection this afternoon. Act quickly as those matches are scheduled to start at 1:45 CST (my current location).
Arsenal and Man City are at the top of their tables in the English Premier League and face opponents who have some players likely missing today and are just simply outmatched. Arsenal is hosting Bournemouth who has not faired well against good competition on the road. Arsenal boasts a great 11-2-1 record this year in home games. Bournemouth is 3-0-10 on the road. Bournemouth is conceding 2.3 goals per game on the road this year and has awful away scoring form. Likewise, Man City owns the head to head against W. Ham and averages 2.7 goals per game at home. They are 13-0-1 at home this season.
The Rangers in Scotland have blown out Dundee in their last 4 matches and there is absolutely no reason that it shouldn’t happen again today. Dundee travels to the Rangers today having surrendered 2.1 goals per game on the season, and boasting miserable away form statistics. Conversely, Rangers average 2.2 goals per game at home and concede only 0.7 goals per game this year. I project an easy 2-0 or 3-0 victory here.
Parlay the money lines and you can get odds from -120 to -127 from the shops I have searched.
I have released this on Twitter as a 5u max play for my followers, and I urge you to take a look at this mid-day profitable play selection.
Follow me on Twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.
Tonight the Greek Freak brings his 1st place Bucks to Sacramento. I see a lot of value in the Kings here. They play well at home, 21-8-1 ATS a league best. Milwaukee will be playing their 2nd of a 5 game road trip. The Kings are in the midst of a playoff push and seem to be all in on the team effort. Vegas has continued to undervalue them nightly, hence the league best records ATS. Kings will not waste a game especially a home one. Kings actually put up comparable stats, and play similar ball to Milwaukee. I think they will put forth their best foot, Bucks get everyone’s best game nightly and are susceptible to an off night. Look for some value in Bucks 2H if they fall behind early. Kings +5.5
Take a trip with me to Seattle, Washington tonight and consider backing the short 3.5 point road favorite in Utah Valley University (19-8) as they face Seattle University (15-12). ATS trends support this play significantly. For UVU, they are covering the number with a record of 16-9 on the season, 8-4 in conference play, 5-0 L5, 8-2 L10, and 10-5 on the road. Conversely, while Seattle has cashed some tickets on the season (12-13), they are just 2-10 in conference play, 1-4 L5 and 2-8 the L10.
Trends, typically, are never enough to support a play for me. I took a look at both teams’ strength of schedule (SOS) and efficiency matrices on KenPom. UVU has the 71st ranked offensive efficiency (OE) compared to 246 for Seattle. What is more striking about these comparisons is the fact that Seattle’s meager 246th ranking comes against opponents whose defensive efficiency (DE) rank 313th in the country! UVU has faced opponents on average who rank 58 spots higher in KenPom’s SOS rating on the season than opponents which Seattle has played.
This time of the year, conference statistics are very important. In conference play, UVU’s offense scores at a rate of 112.9/100 possessions. They play a tempo that provides more possessions per game than Seattle, who is only scoring at a rate of 95.6/100 possessions. UVU has the 4th ranked defense in the conference, and the margins here are such that make me confident in UVU when asked this one question: Given these statistics, which team has a potential to play at or worse/better than their average production thus far? The answer is clearly UVU here, and with a 3.5 point spread, it is worth a play to me. UVU ranks first in the conference in 3pt %, 2pt %, FTA/FGA, effective FG%, and OE.
KenPom provides player states with offensive ratings. I like to look at the total numbers from the top 6 players in percentage of contribution. If the numbers are significantly different, I tend to feel more confident in the other statistics that favor my play. Here, the top six players for UVU outrank the top six from Seattle by 40 points. 10 or more to me is worth considering.
My blended power rating has UVU favored by 9 without home court factored in. How much home court do you give in a situation like this? That is up to you to decide, but is Seattle’s home court worth 4.5 points? I personally don’t bet on it having that much significance tonight.
The market reaction also supports this play. When I looked at the information provided by The Action app, it showed that 64% of the tickets are on UVU, but 80% of the money. I asked myself: How many members of the general public have their eyes set on this match up tonight? The fact that 80% of the money this early in the market is on UVU here but not an equivalent percentage of the pick percentage leads me to this conclusion: Early action is likely the sharp action here and the fact that more money than the ticket percentage has been laid can usually mean sharp action has laid a higher percentage of the money.
Play: Utah Valley University -3.5 (2 units)
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Here we are at the end of February and there are many teams that have seem to clinch tournament birth but there are also plenty of teams to watch out for that still have a chance to dance. To find some of these bubble teams you do not have to look farther than the Big 10. Now people might say that Indiana doesn’t fit the bubble description, but with their large non-conference wins against Marquette and Louisville and win against Sparty, they still have a shot. Now Indiana has been a fade team for me but in this situation, they really need this game a lot more than Wisconsin. What has been consistent with the Hoosiers is their defense. At home the Hoosiers hold opponents to 61.3 points per game while Wisconsin only scores 65.9 on the road. Wisconsin themselves have the 6th best defense in the nation and second in the big 10 holding opponents to 61 points per game. Wisconsin plays the slowest pace in the big 10 at 63.5 possessions per game. Indiana only averages 62 points per game in conference and slowed their pace down in conference to from 66.6 possessions to 65.5 and hold the ball about a second longer than they did all year. Indiana is 11th in the big 10 in turnovers and desperation leads to turnovers which may make it easier for Wisconsin to control the pace. The under is the only play here and a lean to Indiana to cover the spread.
Under 126.5 and lean Indiana
TCU vs West Virginia +4 O/U 146.5
Here is another bubble team that I think we can find some value on. TCU is going to a very different looking West Virginia team that has 4 different starters in than they had during the non conference play due to injuries and disciplinary situations. Now the Mountaineers certainly played well at Baylor and was able to cover that spread but that was more of the exception due to Baylor’s best player Makai Mason going 0-7 from the field than the mean. Now I should not have to reiterate again that West Virginia is by far the worst team in the Big 12 but what should be obvious to everyone here is that TCU lost 3 out of their last 4 games without their second best player in Kouat Noi. Noi averages 15 points per game and 5 boards and is part of the reason that they beat Iowa State on Saturday by 3 points. TCU is a much better team when healthy and they like to play fast. TCU’s offense ranks 48th in the nation and their defense ranks 40th. West Virginia’s offense ranks 122nd in the nation and their defense ranks 137th respectively on Kenpom. Just looking at the conference game splits TCU wins 74-68. I like the bubble motivation here with the Frogs.
We are coming up on the 2nd NASCAR race of the season starting at 2PM this Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Atlanta is a 1.54 mile track with an old racing surface which will create a much different race compared to the Daytona 500 last week. NASCAR has a brand new rules package for 2019 that will be much different than what we have ever seen before. NASCAR has cut the horsepower down from 750 to 550. They also have made a few aerodynamic changes to create more downforce which will help the cars handle better. These changes will create more opportunities for passing and allow for better racing. It will put more emphasis on the driver forcing them to be more aggressive in order to make a pass.
Atlanta has one of the oldest surfaces of any track on the NASCAR circuit. Because of that, I will lean on some veterans this weekend because I think the experience will pay off.
With racing at Atlanta, the gambling strategy should be much different than last week at Daytona. Since you do not get as much value from picking the winner, the best strategy is head to head to head matchups. Just like in any other sport you try to lay as little juice as possible. I will continue to work with a $200 budget, we missed both races at Daytona so its time to get going in the right direction.
So this is the big 10 match-up that everyone has been waiting for. Today we were going to learn who the best team in the big 10 is. Michigan or Michigan State right? Well due to that unfortunate hand injury to Michigan State’s best all around player Nick Ward, we unfortunately may have to wait till the big 10 tournament to find that out. This definitely doesn’t mean we can’t bet this game though! Ward averages 15 points per game, 6.7 rebounds with a 61% FG percentage with Sparty so this will certainly prove to be a big loss. Michigan on the other hand is coming into this game healthy and ready to prove why they made it to the tournament last year. Looking at these 2 teams, they are pretty similar in power rating both being top 8 in the nations. Kenpom has these teams Michigan State 4 and Michigan 6. This line looks a little short to me due to the fact that State is losing a player of Ward’s caliber. I think this 4 point line would reflect a healthier Michigan State team with some home court advantage to the Wolverines. I personally would make it about Michigan -3.5 if both teams healthy. Another thing that hasn’t been factored in to this injury is that this total should have taken a bigger hit. Michigan State has lost some very good defense as well with Ward out but the Wolverine’s play slow enough to have his loss affect more on the offensive side of the ball. Michigan has the number 2 defense in the nation and the 303rd slowest pace of play. This line is a little short to me and I would make it 6. Michigan wins 66-60.
How poor is this Indiana team? I see them as the Oklahoma of last year that charged through their non-conference schedule only to fail miserably when conference play started. Since January 3rd, this Hoosier team is 3-10 ATS in conference play with only 1 away cover when they surprised Michigan State. Now they have to travel to an Iowa team who has the 3rd best offense in the big 10 coming off of a close loss at home vs Maryland. The best thing that Indiana has going for them is that Iowa has the worst defense in the big 10 so if they try they should be able to put some points up. Nobody has been more bipolar in the big 10 in the splits than the Hoosiers. They average 6 less points per game on the road vs at home and give up 13.5 more points per game on the Road. Iowa is a much better team at home allowing 3 less points and scoring 4 more at 82 points per game. This spread is going to be pretty big seeing that Indiana already lost to this team at home 77-72 at home this year but if you look at Indiana’s situation after losing that close game vs Purdue, one has to wonder where their minds are at. Looking at these splits and the situation, I think Iowa comes back big after their loss to Maryland and puts one on Indiana here. I have this game Iowa 80 – 69
Iowa -7 and lean over
Penn State vs Illinois -2 O/U 141
Penn State has been rejuvenated lately winning 3 of their last 5 big 10 games and putting up 95 points shooting 56 percent against an injured Nebraska team a few days back. Illinois on the other hand has much improved with coach Brad Underwood who has done a fantastic job with these very young kids. The 2 keys to this game is the spot and the home/road splits. When a team that isn’t a good shooting team plays out of their minds I like to fade them. Penn State is in that spot and probably also looking ahead to number 19 Maryland. The Illini is coming off of a good loss at a desperate Wisconsin team when they had the lead a large part of the game and covered the spread. Illinois has been on fire at home averaging 79.9 points per game and 46% from the field when their overall average is only 73.8 and 43% Their defense is also much better allowing only 72.3 points. Penn State on the other hand is equally bipolar only scoring 65.6 points on the road and shooting 40% when their average is 69.3 points per game. If you look in general on Kenpom, Penn State shows the better team but if you look just in conference play, Illinois ranks higher in both Adjusted offense and adjusted defense. I like Illinois here 75-50
Illinois -2
Virginia vs Louisville +5.5 O/U 123
Ever since that Duke collapse, this Louisville team has certainly not been the same only scoring 56 points home to Clemson and then losing at Syracuse only putting up 49 points. Now they will face the best defense that they have seen all year in Virginia and one must wonder if they are going to put up some points. Virginia on the other hand was able to get by North Carolina recently proving to still be among the top 2 teams in the ACC only without having an answer for Duke. Both of these teams rank number 1 and 2 respectively in conference play in defensive efficiency in the ACC. Louisville can be a weird team for sure beating teams like UNC and losing to teams like Pittsburgh but one thing that i have noticed is that they never seem to control the pace of their games yet they can seem to be able to adjust their play to either fast or slow. Looking at the home/road splits, Louisville seems to score about the same home or on the road but they play better defense at home while Virginia is a definitely a better home team then when they are on the road by about a 10 point margin. Virginia has not had a tough road schedule this year minus the Duke game and I think they may be tested against a desperate Cardinals team. I also like the fact that Louisville can hit free throws ranking number 1 in the SEC. This is very important in a low scoring game. I’ll take the points. I have this game 63-62 Virginia winning by 1.
Louisville +5.5
West Virginia vs Baylor – 12 O/U 142
Well here are 2 teams that both recently had some player issues. Baylor lost 3 out of 4 games a few weeks back until getting Makai Mason back and shocking Iowa State at home this Tuesday. West Virginia ever since suspending 2 starters Esa Ahmad and Wesley Harris hasn’t scored over 53 points and lost 4 games in row by blowouts. When healthy I think Baylor is a top 3 Big 12 teams with nice wins against Iowa State, Oklahoma and Texas Tech. Iowa State ranks number 1 in offense in the Big 12 and is getting healthier. I think there is also a good chance that their 3rd best player King McClure comes back whom is also their best 3 point shooter. West Virginia on the other hand ranks almost last in every category in the Big 12 and I think they have cashed their season. I am going to keep fading West Virginia at least until I lose and look at the under
Baylor -12 and lean under
Duke vs Syracuse +5 O/U 145
This is a strange one due to Zion being out, a revenge spot for Duke and the tragic thing that happened to Jim Boeheim killing a man with his car on the highway. I do not think that Duke knows how to play with Zion all that well. Lean Syracuse here because the kids may rally around their coach but wait for news about injuries.
Lean Syracuse +5
Ohio State vs Maryland -7 O/U 130
So this is a road revenge spot here for Ohio State but how can they they be trusted here when they have only won 1 true away game in conference against a bad Indiana team. You are going to see a healthy spread here of 7 or 8 points in favor for Maryland but I am not so sure that I want to lay that kind of number even though Ohio State is only 6-10 ATS after a win. Maryland finally got their big road victory against a ranked Iowa team and this could be a flat spot for them. One thing that I can count on is the fact that both of these team have had some huge defensive performances and both teams play slow and have top 20 defenses in the nation. Ohio State also somehow allows 3 less points per game on the road then they do at home at 62. I think due to these teams recent wins, it may not be a bad idea to check out the under as long as it is over 128 points or so. Ohio State unders in conference are 9-5-1 and Maryland in conference unders are 10-6.
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a fantastic show for the weekend! We first get into some college basketball news as well as some big 10 rankings. Kiev then goes into a few quick games and some Big 10 total trends. Professional handicapper Jimmy Boyd @boydsbets from Boydsbets.com comes in to bring us some sports betting knowledge! We first talk about if key numbers affect college basketball betting. We then take a look at the NCAA men’s future’s market. Finally we get into some of the games from a huge card this weekend.
NCAA: Kent State vs Buffalo, Indiana vs Iowa, Ohio State vs Maryland, Virginia vs Louisville, Penn State vs Illinois and West Virginia vs Baylor, Duke vs Syracuse!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
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For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a monmth please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
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It’s finally here! UNC vs Duke baby (as Dicki V would say)! If you are a true college basketball fan you are watching this amazing game tonight! Now one can easily look at this line and make an argument that the Tar Heels are being disrespected here. Rivalries are not supposed to have almost double digit spreads like this so everyone’s first inclination is to bet the dog. It is true that in many years past that these games have been very close and since 1950, North Carolina has scored 13,581 points to Duke’s 13,559. Only a 22 point difference there! I am actually going to pump the breaks on this way of thinking here. When you are looking at rivalries it is also very important to look at what these teams are today. After all, isn’t the New England Patriots rivals with the New York Jets? How has that match-up been working out lately? When you look at these 2 teams you have Duke who is better in nearly every offensive and defensive category to North Carolina’s numbers. The only place that the Tar Heels have an advantage is in 3 point land where they rank 19th in the country at 38.6% while duke ranks 305th in the country at 31.3%. We can look at this 2 different ways. You can say, “If North Carolina can come in to Cameron Indoor Arena and rain 3s on Duke, they can easily win this game” Duke doesn’t really defend the 3 that well either ranking only 138th in the nation. The other way that you can look at this is to say, “even though Duke is terrible at 3s, their offense still ranks 2nd in the nation and because this is a home game for them, they may be able to hit some 3s and blow this team out like they have in the recent past vs Virginia!” The issues that lie with North Carolina is that they do not seem to get to the free throw line enough and they tend to turn the ball over which doesn’t bode well against a Duke defense who is number 1 in the nation in steals. Now North Carolina has certainly improved their game from that bad start to the season when they lost to Michigan and they now are probably the third best team in this conference slightly behind Virginia. I ran the numbers through my algorithm 2 different ways. Using numbers from the full year, I have Duke winning this game 94-83 or an 11 point spread. Running conference only numbers I have Duke winning this game 87 – 81 meaning a 6 point spread. Running just pure home/road splits you get 80.3 to 74.2. If you blend this all together you get a spread of Duke winning by about 7.5 points. I personally have this game Duke winning 90.5 -82.5. Not a ton of value for me at +or-9 but I do slighly think that this game goes over the total of 165 due to the fact that these are the best offenses and fastest playing teams in the nation. As long as UNC can hang most of this game you will see a ton of dribble drives through the lane and many whistles from the zebras. My buy price for Duke is at -7 and my buy price for UNC is at +11. Let’s face it, If you are a sports better watching this game tonight then I do not think that this is one of your premium locks of the week being that this line is so sharp. At the same time, it may be a better option to live bet this by getting from a good idea of the pace of this game right from the get go.
Duke over 78 1st half and over 165 full game. Both small plays and it may be better to look at the pace and bet this one live.
