This might be as much of an angle riding a hot CHICAGO team as it is fading a struggling EDMONTON squad. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t back a team with a losing record on their third straight road game. BUT, CHICAGO rides a 4 game winning streak into EDMONTON and the fact that this is a 3rd of 3 road games is an angle I sometimes like. The theory here is that a team wants to finish their road stand with a sweep and it applies to this situation. They are not overlooking EDMONTON here and I would look for CHICAGO to face a let down against VANCOUVER in their next game coming off a road stand.
EDMONTON riding a 5 game losing streak. They are in organizational turmoil to a certain extent. While they have McDavid, that’s virtually all they have. EDMONTON is coming home from two games on the road to a fan base that cannot be electrified for them, even after the all star break.
Take CHICAGO ML +125 available at 5dimes. Follow us @CoverTheProfit on twitter for other angles and free plays.
I see line value here still in Bowling Green tonight. They opened as a -3.5 point road favorite and sit at -5.5 at the time of this write up. The line is likely not higher because folks may consider this to be a let down and sandwich situational spot for BGSU. They are coming off a huge conference win against BUFFALO, and face TOLEDO on February 9. So, one would think that this matchup against lowly conference foe W. MICH may not afford them a max effort display. I don’t think they need to perform at or above season statistical averages to cover this line, even at -5.5. WMICH gives up 80+ ppg in conference play and over L5 games. BGSU has an explosive offense. BGSU ATS: 7-1 in conference, 9-1 L10. Road favorites of under 7 in conference play where their power rating lines have 4+ points against the current spread have been successful betting angles for me this season.
Earlier in the season we saw reports that Head Coach Mike White was struggling to find leaders on his team. If you watched their game against KENTUCKY on Saturday, you saw them control that game – UNTIL around the 9 minute mark of the second half. The effort was pitiful from a physical standpoint from that point on (in front of a crowd that supported them), and KENTUCKY won by 11. Now they are on the road today against AUBURN, and face TENNESSEE on the road on Feb. 9. This is a horrible spot unless you think they are glad to be away from their home crowd/fanbase. AUB comes in averaging 80+ ppg in all statistical categories, and I don’t see FLORIDA keeping up with their tempo or slowing them down.
The total has recently gone from 135 to 134. I like this Under here. KU playing with Marcus Garrett tonight, who may not be a high scorer but is an offensive facilitator. KSU defense ranked 9th in adjusted DEF and KU ranked 13th per KenPom. While KU adjusted tempo may rank high, it will not change the pace of this game at KSU who ranks 323 out of 354 in adjusted tempo per KenPom. KSU unders are 9-1 at home on the season. Consider the high intensity of this matchup with conference implications and KSU playing with some revenge angles in situational analysis. KU offensive production is not what we are used to seeing, and shouldn’t be again tonight. I consider a good buy price to be down to 132.
KU/KSU under 135. Follow us on twitter @CoverTheProfit for other content and free plays
Play recommendation. VALPO/ILL ST u132. L2 weeks, VALPO 54.75 ppg, ILL ST 69.50. L4 weeks – 59/68.43 respectively. Conference play 61.40/66.30 resepctively. I have a fade Valpo angle due to lack of depth and scoring that has worked so far for me. Both teams extremely thin on bench. Valpo without Fazekas, one of their top scorers. ILL ST without Jefferson, a Guard who average 24 mpg and almost double digits. They are guard heavy and playing against Valpo who is also guard heavy. Valpo under is 4-1 L5, 8-2 L10, 8-2 in conference play. Total is 132 and seems rather high. Neither team gets to the free throw line very much and Valpo averaging 18.1 pts from 3 and giving up 19 pts from 3. This total has already dropped to 128 in some shops and I would recommend a buy price of 126.
Play recommendation. VALPO/ILL ST u132. L2 weeks, VALPO 54.75 ppg, ILL ST 69.50. L4 weeks – 59/68.43 respectively. Conference play 61.40/66.30 resepctively. I have a fade Valpo angle due to lack of depth and scoring that has worked so far for me. Both teams extremely thin on bench. Valpo without Fazekas, one of their top scorers. ILL ST without Jefferson, a Guard who average 24 mpg and almost double digits. They are guard heavy and playing against Valpo who is also guard heavy. Valpo under is 4-1 L5, 8-2 L10, 8-2 in conference play. Total is 132 and seems rather high. Neither team gets to the free throw line very much and Valpo averaging 18.1 pts from 3 and giving up 19 pts from 3.
I can smell revenge in the air! There is nothing like having the opportunity to play your in state rival at home after getting blown out the year before by 16 points. The Jayhawks right now are a wounded animal and the Wildcats smell blood. Ever since Kansas lost Udoka Azubukie they have been very average dropping games to Texas, West Virginia and Kentucky. As a matter of fact this Jayhawks team is only 1-5 ATS as an away team and 1-3 in conference play. The Wildcats on the other hand has been trending up since getting back their stud big man Dean Wade against teams like Iowa State, TCU and Texas Tech. This game for the Wildcats is much more important to them in order to move up in the rankings and solidify a number 1 ranking in the Big 12. Now that Marcus Garrett was just announced injured and out for this game with an ankle sprain the Jayhawks even have more depth issues. Most of these Kansas Kids playing are young Kansas knows that some of their key wins will be enough when it comes to tournament seeding and since they just won on Saturday against Texas Tech, I see a flat spot for them in order to try and get healthy.
Kansas State -2.5
Florida State vs Syracuse -2.5 O/U 137
Florida State has played some high scoring games but if you look at the ACC in general it is a fast paced conference. When the Semis had to play the slower teams they seemed to struggle to score against the likes of Pittsburgh, Virginia and Georgia Tech. Even more prevalent is that Florida State hasn’t played well at all on the road being 1-4 ATS while Syracuse is 8-6 at home. Florida State likes to use their height to dominate games because they are so bad from 3 point land at only 33%. Syracuse is the tallest team in basketball and matches up VERY well against the Semi’s inside game. I like the fact that both of these teams have good defenses and both of these teams do not shoot the ball well at all both ranking in the bottom 180 in effective FG percentage. I really like the fact that Syracuse plays the 10th slowest pace in the ACC. Since the Orange struggles from free throw land I do not see how this game goes over the total of 137 and I also think with that top 20 D, they they stop the Seminals from scoring many points.
Syracuse -2.5 small and Under 137 large. Correlated parlay as well.
Under 58 – 3 star – I think that the last few super bowls going to 72 and 75 points along with New England’s recent scoring rampage really drove this line up however, this will be the Patriots best defense that they have faced pretty much all year. I do not see both of these teams taking big risks the first half of this matchup and neither does Vegas. You can easily tell this just by looking at the Vegas line for Tom Brady’s total passing yards for the full game at 294 and for the first half at about 110. This discrepancy is pretty evident with the other players as well. Now just because I like this under a bunch does not mean that I won’t hedge it by halftime if the score is under 27.
Under 28 1st half – From the last podcast why would you not take the first half under if that’s the way you think the game will be played out.
Goff MVP +250 1.5 star – Too much value not too. Now this is a much better way in betting the Rams rather than betting them +120 to win the game. I also think Belichek will make Goff beat him and try and stop the running game.
Donald MVP +2000 .5 star – Just in case 🙂
Tom Brady over 294.5 passing yards 1.5 star (-120) – Goff/Donald MVP Hedge
Tom Brady over 2.5 TD Passes .75 star +155 – Goff/Donald MVP Hedge – Brady for MVP at +100 is not really good value. Instead I like this hedge because literally all 3 of these can happen. Goff MVP, Brady over 2.5 touchdowns and 294 yards. You saw this happen last year when Foles won the MVP.
First Score by Rams FG or Safty .5 star +150
First Score by Patriots FG or Safty .5 star +160 – narrative on both teams being careful and not forcing anything the first half.
Todd Gurley rushing yards under 60.5 +100 1 star Love it (2 back system now and injury) What the Hell has been up with Gurley? He seems like he is either being punished or not trusted during these playoffs. He barley touched the ball the first 2 playoff games.
Brandon Cooks receiving yards under 75.5 .5 star – Belichek wants to stop Cooks to keep him from embarrassment. Last year benching Malcolm Butler was embarrassing when they lost the game to Philadelphia
Robert Woods receiving yards over 70.5 .5 star – He should be open in the middle of the field when they are keying in on Cooks.
Robert Woods rushing yards over 6.5 .75 star (-120) The last 5 Rams games Woods had at least 1 carry and mostly it was 2. The Jet sweep and end around is a high yardage return.
Sonny Michelle rushing yards under 79.5 1 star Love it– narrative on both teams being careful – nobody for Pats rushed over 45 yards the last 2 Super bowls and Rams shut down the running game very well. Nobody has rushed over 47 yards against them in the playoffs.
James Develin rushing + receiving yards over 3.5 .5 star Love it. You know Belichek won’t be able to live with himself if he didn’t do one of those, “this is the patriot way” plays where everyone contributes. I also am thinking about a touchdown prop for him if I can find one.
Gronk scores a TD .5 star +180 – hes such a big target and you know they will draw up a RedZone play for him. The rest of the Patriot Wide Receivers are small. Gronk scored twice in the last super bowl and that is another high paying prop I am thinking about.
Julian Edelman – I am not going to take his over 80 yards receiving and over 7.5 completions because I think Wade Phillips is smart enough to either Jam him at the line or put a safety over him every play. I thought a lot about this one and I could be wrong so that is why I am not going under either. Instead look at Hogan and Dorsett
Chris Hogan over 42.5 receiving yards .5 star
Phillip Dorsett over 28.5 receiving yards .5 star
Tyler Higbee scores a TD +365 1 star – Love this – So we already saw this play during the Saints game. A miss direction goal line play action pass on the right to Higbee. He is left wide open a lot and without Cooper Kupp in the Rams lineup, I love this even more.
James White over 50.5 receiving yards .5 star (-115) I think that the Rams will do whatever it takes to slow down Edelman and Gronk and make the other players beat them. I saw Corey Littleton fail when he tried to guard Kamara and I think Belichek may see that too.
Runners up:
James white over 7 or 8 catches – That is a lot for a running back
Littleton over 8.5 tackles. That is a lot for a Line Backer
Not sure if many of you have a Betonline.ag account but under “super bowl specials” they are pretty much giving away $50 for letting them hold on to $50 bucks until next season. I checked with Dave Mason on this as well.
The prop is that as long as the super bowl winner scores in the first game of the 2019 regular season. (I think that’s a 99% chance)
Ok, which Iowa Hawkeye’s team are we going to get here? The one who looks the part by destroying teams by double digits like Northwestern, Iowa State, Ohio State and Illinois? Or the one who acts big but can’t hang with the big teams like their second half crumble losing at home to Michigan State by 15 after leading at the half or getting spanked by Purdue by 16 points. The thing that gets me about this team is that they have lots of talent and should be playing with the big boys and if there is a spot to do it, it is against this Michigan Wolverines team. Iowa has the capabilities to beat tough teams with their Big center Luka Garza and 6’9 power forward Tyler Cook. As long as Jordan Bohannon is hitting those threes, this team can be unstoppable. On the other side, Michigan has been downright amazing with a defense ranking 1st in the country. The Wolverines have been able to dominate some of the top teams like North Carolina and Villanova. One thing that I did notice though is that Michigan seems to struggle against some of the momentum teams like Wisconsin and Minnesota. Iowa is a huge momentum team and if Michigan gets caught allowing some open looks they could be in a heap of trouble here. Michigan also knows how to play fast if they have to as we saw vs the Tar heels and the Gamecocks. I know that there hasn’t been a ton of situations where Michigan hasn’t controlled their game but when they have played the faster paced teams like Minnesota, South Carolina and Illinois, they couldn’t cover the spread. The Hawkeye’s need a big win against a top rated team and I think they can get it done against the Wolverines and I am not scared to look at the over 142
Iowa +5, ML and Over 142
North Carolina vs Louisville -1 O/U 155
This is a fun one. Huge game for the Tar Heels facing a Cardinals team that has been on a tear lately. Back on January 12th, Louisville beat UNC in Chapel Hill by 21 points and now revenge will be on the Tar Heels minds. Lets break this game down shall we? Both offenses and strength of schedule is too close give an edge. The Cardinals beat Michigan State and the Tar Heels beat Gonzaga. Both of those games were at home. North Carolina is the taller team with a better defense according to Kenpom but Louisville is better at the small things like turnovers, free throws, and steels. Both teams haven’t played their harder ACC schedule yet aka the Virginias, Dukes and Syracuses. UNC did get Virginia Tech at home and won but gave up a ton of points. Looking at these Kenpom numbers there are some things that do not seem to add up to me. North Carolina’s defense ranks 13th while Louisville’s ranks 24th. Looking at some of the teams that they both played, Louisville actually showed a bit better on D. If you look at adjusted defense just in conference play, Louisville ranks 2nd while North Carolina ranks 4th. This is the part where I think you can have an advantage in the line. While North Carolina scores 85 points per game on the road, Louisville only allows 66.7 at home. Louisville scores 80 at home while UNC allows 74 on the road. Going by this split you would say 77-76 in favor of Louisville. I think that the key to this handicap is the fact that Louisville is at home and UNC hasn’t had any huge road wins as of yet. I also think Louisville who plays at a slower pace should be able to slow this thing down a bit and control the game. I like Louisville up to -4 points
Louisville -1 and lean under 155
Nebraska vs Illinois +5 O/U 145
Illinois is actually a team that his a lot better than people think. You have to love how athletic Trent Frazier can be and they definitely have an inside presence with the big Giorgi Bezhanishvili who is from Georgia but not the Georgia that we know. This team is very close in putting it together showing signs of playing as a team when they beat the Gophers at home and exploited Maryland at Madison Square Garden. Nebraska is a team that is living in the past with that fat ranking of 23 on Kenpom and 13-8 record but realistically, they lost 4 games in a row and suffered a devastating blow when Isaac Copland went out a week ago. Since the bookmakers are so overly concerned with numbers over situations, this line is going to come out wrong on Friday night and it is up to you to get this early. I like Illinois down to +2
Illinois +5 and ML
Miami vs Virginia -19 O/U 127
Want to know something sad? The Miami Hurricane’s are 19 points dogs to slow playing Virginia. Want to know something even sadder? Vegas is right and may even need to make it larger. There is absolutely no way in hell that you can bet on this Hurricanes team. Miami is worst in the ACC in defensive efficiency, defensive field goal percentage, blocks and almost the worst in every other category. Miami also is mediocre at best on offense Looking at a team like this, one would think that they need to play fast to try and outscore their opponents but WRONG. The Hurricanes don’t have the depth to keep running the court and therefore rank 213th in average Tempo. We already know Virginia suffocates team with their second best D in the league and slowest play ever at 59.7 possessions per game. When Virginia is up by 20 by the middle of the second half, they will just run the clock and move to the next game. Prepare to fall asleep.
Virginia under 127
Kansas State vs Oklahoma State +2 O/U 121
Ok, let’s try this one again. This game really set up perfectly for me. Kansas State had a nice little let down last week losing to Texas A&M after beating Texas Tech while Oklahoma State secured a much needed emotional win beating South Carolina at home. One thing about this line is that it really set up well for this weekend. Oklahoma State played out of their minds proving that all the injuries that they endured will not affect them. Now it’s time to eye up their potential let down game vs a better K State team. I still do not think Kansas State’s power rating has been upgraded enough with Dean Wade back. Remember that last year, this team was Elite 8. Another thing that I notice is that Kansas State’s defense ranks top 4 in the nation while the Pokes don’t even rank in the top 80. This is a system play as well with the Wildcats coming off of a terrible shooting game. K State bounces back big on the road
Kansas State -2 big
Quick Hitter: Miss State vs Ole Miss -2 Take OLE MISS -2 up to 5 if Nick Weatherspoon’s injury keep him out. If he plays then I only like it at -1 He is the Rebels best player
Make sure that you cover your eyes because this one is UUUUUUGLY! Kentucky has been straight up balling as we have seen this year stepping up to the plate and beating big teams like Auburn, Louisville, North Carolina and now Kansas this past Saturday. Well here comes the let down spot. Kansas is a very good team but as we all know, they were missing their best player to injury. These 2 teams have already squared off in Lexington with Kentucky beating them by 9 points. Now Kentucky likes to play a slow game as we know and they try and suffocate their opponents down low in the paint. They pretty much have to because they shoot at a pretty low 35% from 3 point land but even worst 30% on the road. Vanderbilt on the other hand shoots a pretty bad three themselves at 33% except when they are at home they average a better 37%. I also like they way that that matched up against Tennessee. A key here to me is Vanderbilt has the height ranking 15th tallest team in the nation to match up with Kentucky big guys inside the paint. The Wildcat’s best weapons are down low and if Vanderbilt can do enough to frustrate them or get them in foul trouble then this could be anyone’s game. Vandy has had a brutal SEC schedule already playing many of the best teams but they are looking for that first big win and no better place then at home and no better time than now vs a let down spot. As of right now only 44% of the ticket counts are on Vandy but 66% of the money is on Vandy. Told you this one was ugly!
Vanderbilt +9.5 and ML small
Trend play: Taking NIU – 5 vs Ohio. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS at home while Ohio is 1-5 ATS on the road. The Bobcats are a terrible shooting team ranking 253rd in effective FG percentage while the Huskies rank 22nd! Ohio is even worse on the road and the fact that they are coming off of a close win vs Ball State and NIU is coming off of a loss makes me like this even more.
