Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a great show for you today! This episode is really all about telling a Super bowl Story through prop betting. We first go into some of the sharp action in the game and then get right into the many props that we see value to match our super bowl narrative.
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Tonight we’ll focus on the Philadelphia 76ers and the Denver Nuggets. Sixers will be shorthanded tonight with Embiid sitting out to rest, and all signs point to Butler being unavailable as well. Both these teams play solid defense and are efficient offensively. Teams tend to miss a beat when traveling to the higher altitude of the Rocky Mountains. With Philadelphia missing a couple key pieces and Denver looking to keep pace with the Warriors, I’m looking for a lights out performance on both ends from Denver. I don’t see Philly having enough to keep pace throughout the night. Pick: Nuggets -10
The Pegasus World Cup Invitational is one of the most
expensive races of all time. The purse
is $9,000,000 with a guaranteed 4,000,000 going to the winner of the race. This race is for three year olds and up. The
race will be on the main track, and traveling at a distance of 1 1/8 miles or 9
furlongs. The weather forecast for Saturday calls for 68 degrees, 10 mph winds,
and showers.
The morning line favorite of the race is Accelerate, he
drew the 5th position in the race.
This horse is a multiple grade one winner and at this distance has a
record of four starts with three 1st place finishes and one 2nd
place finish. This horse is trained by John Sadler, and is going to be rode by
Joe Rosario. Rosario has been ridding this horse for the last 3 mounts, with
finishes in first place. Accelerate has
not been a dominant horse, only winning by 1 to 2 lengths in his last two
starts. This horse will have a great chance of leading from the start and never
looking back.
A horse that can catch the favorite, which is my top
selection in this race in the 3rd position, is City of Light. City of Light is perfect at this distance and
the only one in this field to previously beat Accelerate. The horse has been trained by Michael
McCarthy, and it’s going to be rode by Javier Casellano. In this horse’s last
start he lead all the way, beating Seeking the Soul (position 4 horse) and
Bravazo (position 1 horse) at 1 mile.
This horse can handle the distance because he beat Accelerate at this distance
by a neck back in April at a grade II event. The only downside to this horse,
is that he has raced only one time at Church Hill Downs on a questionable fast
course and all other wins came in sunny California.
Another horse that is also noteworthy is in the 10th
position, Audible. This horse is my third selection in the race because he has
been jumping around between classes and not winning by much at the lower
levels. This horse is trained by Todd
Pletcher. Flavien Prat will climb
aboard Audible for the first time which can be a learning curve for the rider
and the horse. Although, the last start
for this horse he came in 2nd on a sloppy track back in December and
if the weather forecast holds, this horse may be able to slip into the top 3.
If the rain is coming down and the race track has been
beat to a pulp, I will be looking for horses that have been there before, and
that horse is the 12th horse, Patternrecognition. This horse has
raced twice in the slop winning bother races in 1st, but he only
posted a beyer speed rating of 100. This horse is trained by Chad Brown and
ridden by Jose Ortiz and this is Ortiz’s forth time on the horse. The downside
of this horse is that he never raced at this distance, and he has been spotty
posting more second place finishes than first place finishes, and in this field
seems to be a huge red flag.
My long shot of the race is the 6th horse
Tom’s d’ Etat. This horse is stepping way up in class, and has never won a
Grade I race. However, this horse has
not competed in a graded event, but the horse has never lost at this distance,
posting a beyer speed rating of 106. This horse has also raced on wet ground
twice winning 1 of 2 with a beyer of 106.
My picks for this race is:
Win / place : 3, 5
Win/Place/Show : 6 ,12
Exacta: Key Box 3 with 5, 6, 10, 12
Trifecta: 3, 5
on top w/ 6, 10, 12
Superfecta: Box 3, 5, 6, 12
Superfecta: Box 3, 5, 10, 12
Bonus:
.20 Pick six:
Race 7: 4, 5
Race 8: 6, 9
Race 9: 8, 1, 9
Race 10: 7, 9
Race 11: 2, 7, 3, 9
Race 12: 3, 5, 6, 12
For other race information or if you want to discuss
other races follow me on twitter @Gephi2
ESPN will Broadcast tonights matchup between the Houston Rockets & Toronto Raptors. James Harden has been unstoppable and might truly be unguardable. Kawhi Leonard will look to show off his two-way ability to the nation as most of us will tune in to see if he can slow down Harden. CP3 has been upgraded on injury report but it’s doubtful tonight is the night he returns. Houston has needed late minute heroics and dominance from the beard to stay on track. The definitely are a better team with the crowd behind them, Toronto is 4-9-1 ATS as an away favorite. I like the Raptors in the 1st half, Lowry is almost averaging a Double Double; him & Green will be needed if Toronto is going to cover. I think they’ll edge them in 1st half but look for the Beard to get them back close late. Pick: Rockets +3
Rest of Bobby’s Bets Toronto/Houston under 229 Hornets +11.5 Jazz -10 Michigan -4.5 Butler +2.5
What happened to this Indiana team that we thought was pretty good after keeping some bigs and Romeo Langford? They started their Big 10 conference schedule in January losing all 5 games that they have played, they turn the ball over at almost 20% and they can’t hit the 3. I do think that the 5 teams that Indiana has played were pretty tough in Michigan, Maryland, Nebraska, Purdue and Northwestern on the road. On the other hand Michigan has flat out balled this year and will be looking for a top seed in the NCAA tournament. Now 2 things stick out to me about Michigan. First they haven’t played that hard of a schedule yet and second, their last 2 game they did not cover the spread and lost straight up in Wisconsin. What’s the deal with only beating Minnesota by 2 points at home on Tuesday? I expect a bounce back here. On the other hand Indiana is plagued by injuries with D’Ron Davis out with an ankle and Devonte Green suspended by coach for some serious locker room issues. I just do not see how Langford and Juwan Morgan make up for all of this lost production.
Michigan -4 and the under 133.5
Buffalo vs Kent State +8 O/U 159
Oh Buffalo. Why are you so good at football and Basketball these last 2 years? Now Buffalo did drop their last game favored by 8 to Northern Illinois shooting only 36% from the field while they average 45%. Even after that Buffalo still is 11-6-1 ATS and 6-3 ATS as an away team. This Bulls team ranks in the top 21 on Kenpom while the Golden Flashes rank 146th. Kent State is a very average team with a good offense and a bad defense beating some pretty good teams like Vanderbilt and Oregon State and overtime vs Toledo on Tuesday. Kent State is 9-7 ATS and 6-4 ATS at home. Last year Kent state won this game at home by 3 points but then lost at Buffalo later by 12 and then by 17 in the Mac tournament. If you look at the straight raw numbers Buffalo should win this game by exactly 9 points. What makes me like Buffalo here is that they are 5-3 ATS after a loss since 2017 and Kent State just played an overtime game vs Toledo which can be a bit draining. I Like how Buffalo can run up the score at the end of a game while their opponent is basically wore out.
Buffalo -8
1/27
Ball State vs Ohio +3 O/U 140
It is quite amazing to me that a team like Ohio ranking 311th in offensive efficiency home now is 10-8. I suppose that would be due to some very good defense. Well Ohio’s defense is pretty good but looking at the numbers it isn’t fantastic by any means. Ball state ranks 63rd on Kenpom at 97 points per 100 possessions in defensive efficiency but that may have to do with having a very easy schedule because they only rank 6th in the MAC conference play at 102.5. On the other hand Ball State is a very good offensive team top 72 at 109.0 adj efficiency on kenpom but only 9th in conference play at 100.8. It’s like both these teams decided to suck when they started playing other Mac teams. Maybe they just got worse because these numbers adjust for strength of opponent. Both teams are 2-4 in the Mac straight up. Ball State has had some injury woes losing Brachen Hazen and Ishmail El Amin earlier in December but now Ohio will be without a few depth positions as well. There are really 2 factors that stick out to me here. First is the trends. Ball State is a 6-2 team ATS on the road while Ohio is 3-6 at home. Its almost like these teams are much better on the road than at home. Secondly, this is a huge revenge game for Ball State getting blown out by Ohio at home 70-52 after playing a double over time game against Eastern Michigan. Ball State is the better team and should be able to cover the 3 points.
Ball State -3
Kansas vs Kentucky -5 O/U 142
Well this is certainly going to be a good game this weekend an a much watch for me. These teams are not too different from each other. Both play great defense with Kentucky rankings 10th and Kansas ranking 11th on Kenpom while Kentucky Edges out Kansas at 20th to 27th in offensive efficiency. There really isn’t a spot play here due to the fact that both of these teams won their last game and have at least 3 days rest. Kentucky is 9-9 ATS and Kansas is 8-11. Kansas is coming into this game with the hardest schedule so far in the league while Kentucky’s schedule ranks 43rd. Now if all things were held equal here I think that this should be a 3 – 4 point spread but not today. Kansas felt a huge injury earlier in January losing their big center Udoka Azubuike and I think he is worth about 3 points to this spread. Kentucky since their Duke loss the first game of the year has ripped through teams like North Carolina, Louisville, Auburn and Mississippi State. Kansas is terrible on the road and 1-3 ATS losing to Iowa State by 17 Arizona State by 4, West Virginia by 1 and barely beating Baylor, I have Kentucky winning this game 76-68.5. Get this one early.
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a jam-packed show for you today! Kiev opens up the show with his big 10 rankings. Professional handicapper Doug Upstone is back! We first discuss some NFL rule changes. Second, we go into where we were right or wrong about our season predictions. Then we get into our Super Bowl thoughts on where there may be some value on the total, side and of course the prop market. Finally we discuss a few college basketball plays for the weekend and some fade teams for the future!
NCAA: Michigan vs Indiana – Buffalo vs Kent State – Ball State vs Ohio – Kansas vs Kentucky and more!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a monmth please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
So this game went to 189 last year at Carver Arena and even when Iowa didn’t show up in East Lansing earlier this year the game still went to 158. I don’t think this total is priced right with Cook back healthy and in the lineup. Since Tyler has been back the last 2 games, both went over the total. Iowa plays fast when the competition steps up and they are the 5th best in the nation at drawing fouls. I see a shootout brewing in Iowa City against the best team in the Big 10. I also lean Iowa + 5.5
Superbowl 53 – LA Rams vs New England Patriots -2 O/U 58
So running the exact raw numbers, I have the Patriots winning 24-23.5. What I am about to say I have always thought this and I still do… I may be wrong but if you score to take the lead over the Patriots and give them over 45 seconds up by 4 – 6.5 then you are dead in the water. I know its crazy to think Reid should have played to “slowly” to only score at the end but I feel that gamble is only correct playing against this dynasty of a team like the Patriots and it sure as hell didn’t help that KC’s defense is one of the worst in the entire league. Thank god they scored as well to push overtime (maybe the pats scored too quickly as well) but the coin flip obviously did KC in at the end. I think that there is value in the under in the full game and the first half under UNTIL the 4th quarter. Both of these defenses have been playing extremely well especially in the first halves of their last 8 games. Belichek will start this game off slow as usual and try establish the run. The Rams will come out most likely feeling the pressure of the huge event and try and take care of the ball especially since they had that first quarter interception last game. If you look at all playoff games in general, they trend towards the under until the 4th quarter as we saw the Patriots and Chiefs score 38 points. I am going to take UNDER 58 points with 3 units only to buy back on the over at either 1.5 Units or 3 for the second half or before the 4th quarter. Should this game be trending under until the second half, you will have a good option to double up with the hedge. I am also taking the first half UNDER 28 for 1.5 units.
A little A-10 action. I predict a Rams victory here! Ok enough with the dumb jokes. VCU comes into this game 10-7-1 ATS while Rhode Island is 7-10. Here is a schedule where both these teams are coming off 2 wins in a row and both teams played on Saturday so no spot situation. When this line opened up at at VCU -1 the numbers guys quickly put money on the home dog Rhode Island making them into a favorite. Lets get into the nuts and bolts here shall we. VCU is a top 55 team on Kenpom while Rhode island is top 118. The Rhode Island Rams best win was against West Virginia back in Mid December but haven’t beaten anybody in the top 74 this year. The other Rams played a much harder schedule beating Temple, Texas, Dayton and only losing to top 4 Virginia by 8. The true key to this game for me is that VCU has a top 5 defense in all of basketball holding teams to 42.2 effective FG percentage and number 4 against the 3. Rhode Island is a terrible shooting team ranking 286 in effective FG percentage at 47.4 and 347th in 3 point percentage. Rhode island has a half way decent defense but the kicker is that not only do they miss a lot of shots, they are also not very tall ranking 236th in height. VCU Ranks 84th in height and should be able to stop this team in the Paint. As long as VCU slows down Rhode Islands best player in Jeff Dowtin, I like VCU to win this game outright and I also like the under 136
Tonight we have the Clippers traveling to Dallas to take on the Ice cold Mavericks. Questions surround both teams, for the Clippers it’s when will they be able to get healthy and stay healthy; in Dallas we’re wondering Dennis Smith’s future with the Mavs and if its in Dallas what will it look like since the emergence of Luka Doncic. Mavericks will be on their 2nd game of a back to back. I’ve got this game more of a Pick’ em. With the Mavericks being 0-7 Straight up when they play with no rest, I don’t see them covering the 3.5, theyre much better at home but the Clippers have proven to be one of the best Western Conference teams on the road, Lou Williams is close to returning and I don’t think Dennis Smith will be much of a factor tonight. I’d even think about putting a little on the money line.
