If you have bet Sam Houston State with your eyes closed this season, you have profited handsomely. They roll into Texas A&M Corpus Christi (TAM-CC) as 4 point favorites. They are 18-3 ATS this season, 11-0 in conference play, 11-2 on the road. The last time they didn’t cover was December 1, 2018! TAM-CC is 3-5 ATS at home and 4-6 in conference play. I could probably just end it here, but I will give some other nuggets that support the play:
In the last 2 weeks of play, they are averaging 87 ppg, with great point distribution on the court, having two guards average double digits and their center averaging double digits. TAM-CC relies heavily on scoring from primarily one player, Kareem South, a guard averaging 37 min per game, and 19.67 ppg over the last two weeks. TAM-CC ranks 305th in adjusted offensive efficiency having played less efficient defenses (165th) than Sam Houston State’s adjusted defensive efficiency rank of 127.
One of Sam Houston State’s offensive strengths is the fact that they rank 41st in the country in 3-point distribution, also a key weakness in TAM-CC’s defense, ranking 292nd.
My blended power rating has Sam Houston State -8.
PLAY: Sam Houston State -4.
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I am recommending that you consider playing under 226 in New Orleans tonight as they face off against Orlando. At first glance, seeing New Orleans averaging 113 ppg on the season and some of their high scoring match-ups might make you question. Here are some reasons why I like the Under at 226:
New Orleans is only 3-7 SU last 10 games. L3 H2H, the totals have averaged 212 and unders went 2-1. L10 H2H, the totals average 194 and Under is 8-2. NO Unders have cashed in 4 of last 6 games, and 9 of last 13 against Orlando, 4 of last 5 at home against Orlando. Against tougher defenses, NO has shown it can’t score near it’s statistical season average. New Orleans is playing its 3rd game in 5 days. New Orleans unders are 16-13 when they are a favorite, and 4-1 against Southeast Division opponents.
Orlando is surrendering 106 ppg on the road this season, holding opponents to 45.18 FG% and has held opponents to 101 L3 games. The Under is 20-13 in conference play for Orlando and 17-12 on the road this season. Orlando has some recent standout defensive performances, holding opponents to low totals, such as: Atlanta 108, Milwaukee 83 (sans Jannis), Brooklyn 89, Houston 103, Washington 95. These games all occurred since January 25th. Orlando road totals average 209 on the season and they have held opponents to 104.8 ppg L5.
Play: ORL/NOR Under 226 ; lean NOR team total under 115.5
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I am sharing my NHL card for tonight with all of you as free plays. While some of them have some juice, if you follow NHL betting you are seeing first period OVER 1.5’s cashing at a high rate. There are a couple of match-ups tonight that I think are prime for at least 2 first period goals, and like many others, I am not afraid to risk some juice here. Some may not agree with this betting strategy, and from a long term betting philosophy standpoint, I whole-heartedly agree. However, I like to dabble with the first period angles from time to time.
Columbus First Period ML -145 – Washington comes in fat and happy off a big win by a big margin last night against Los Angeles. I like to fade teams in the first period on back to back nights involving travel who are playing winning teams.
Chicago/Boston First Period Over 1.5 – 160 – Chicago first period overs have been cashing at a very decent rate. Chicago is playing lights out offensively and they have struggled stopping the puck on defense.
Calgary/Tampa Bay First Period Over 1.5 -190 – This play goes without saying and is by far the juiciest I have ever played. But, I have confidence in this play selection. Calgary games average 3 goals in the first period over the L5 games and tonight they face Tampa Bay on the road.
Carolina/Ottawa Over 6 -125 – Ottawa is solid offensively at home and Carolina comes in as a very efficient offense. Over has cashed 4 of last 6 times when Carolina has traveled to Ottawa.
St. Louis First Period -0.5 +125 AND New Jersey/St. Louis First Period Over 1.5 -125 – I also like to fade struggling teams on the road against superior teams, most notably teams who have solid L5 offensive performances. St. Louis fits this mold tonight, outscoring opponents in the first period 5-1 in the last five match ups against much stiffer competition. New Jersey, on the other hand, has a -10 goal scoring margin on the road this season over 27 games and averages 1.33 goals surrendered on the road on the season.
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San Diego State travels to Colorado State tonight as a 2 point favorite. I am recommending a play tonight with San Diego State as a short road favorite. From purely a matchup standpoint, much of Colorado State’s offensive production comes from 2 pt baskets down low from Junior, 6-11 Center, Nico Carvacho. He is on the floor 78% over the course of the season and 84% recently. Much of their offense runs through either he or JD Paige.
SDSU deploys two 5’s, standing at 6-9 and 6-11 with big frames who share time 65/30. Additionally, their top rebounder, Jalen McDaniels, typically plays the 4 and matches up athletically and height wise (standing at 6-10). SDSU wins the both the offensive and defensive rebound battle (OFF Rebound Rank: SDSU/118, CSU/293) in stat comparisons here and there is a significant advantage in defensive efficiency. More bodies in the post who taller than an opponents’ bodies, coupled with a significant offensive rebound advantage, leads to second chance points with high efficiency FG% numbers. CSU ranks 300th in defensive FG% efficiency, and SDSU ranks 135th in offensive FG efficiency.
I look for SDSU to attempt to get Carvacho in foul trouble early, and if they can, they have neutralized Colorado State’s primary source of offensive production. That leaves JD Paige, their only other double digit scorer, to pick up the pieces. I don’t think that can get the job done tonight where SDSU has two guards, Watson and Hemsley, who both average double digits and match up well against Paige. Carvacho’s presence is key for Colorado State, but SDSU wins the average height comparison, ranked 59th in the country compared to 241st for CSU.
When I looked at my blended power rating lines for this matchup, I have SDSU -4.8 tonight. Colorado State ranks 301st in defensive efficiency and with 3 guys scoring double digits for SDSU, I don’t see how CSU can win here tonight, and the short number tells me there is value enough to make a play.
PLAY: SDSU -2
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This game could not have set up more nicely for Wisconsin. Michigan State has been a force in the non conference as well as big 10 play all the way up to the point where Joshua Langford was announced out for the season and then they dropped 3 games in a row against some very inferior teams like Illinois and Indiana. The fact that they were able to bounce back at home against the likes of Minnesota really makes me like this spot for Wisconsin. Michigan State is the best in effective FG percentage, as well as offensive rebounding, second in free throws but they really lack in turnover % and the glaring thing to me is that they really started to struggle when they got into the tougher part of the big 10 schedule. This Spartans team still hasn’t had any of their games vs Michigan and I think their stats may be a bit stale. Wisconsin on the other hand has already played Michigan twice, Maryland twice, Purdue once and is coming off of a good loss where they only had 2 free throw attempts in a let down spot at Michigan. Now Wisconsin isn’t a good rebounding or free throw kind of team but I think where they will get an advantage in this game is Ethan Happ drawing the double team down low kicking it out to all their 3 point shooters such as Trice, Reuvers, Ford and Davison. Wisconsin ranks 2nd in 3 point shooting in the Big 10 and 2nd in turnover percentage. These are 2 key stats for playing at home that can crush a great team. The biggest thing to me is looking at the home/road splits. Wisconsin averages 11 points more at home than on the road while Michigan State averages 11 points less than they do at home on the road. Lastly might be important to remember that Wisconsin has covered the spread against Sparty their last 2 games and that was a very injured Badger team. Wisconsin Rolls.
Wisconsin +1 lean under 128
Purdue vs Maryland +2.5 O/U 141
Just like in football sometimes pace of play doesn’t really tell the whole story. If you look at both of these teams, they are both in the top 3 for slowest play in the big 10 only rivaled by Wisconsin. Let’s dig a little deeper. In most of the games that Maryland played, they were either destroying the teams that they have played or getting destroyed meaning the winning team was running the clock out at the end. Their last 5 games the average margin of victory of the winning team was 13 points. The same applies to Purdue who is the best shooting team in the big 10 having an average margin of victory of 14 points their last 5 games. As a matter of fact, Purdue hasn’t scored under 70 points since January 8th vs Sparty. Purdue averages an amazing 77.5 points per game on the road while Maryland averages 78 at home. Purdue also gives up about 76 on the road while Maryland gives up 68. Looking at this line being so close, it is telling me that there will be some points scored at the end of the game and I would not be surprised if it goes to 150.
Last week I posted an UNDER play selection when Portland State traveled to N. Colorado. I am recommending that we fire on another UNDER here when they travel to Sacramento State as 4 point underdogs. If you like this play, jump on it quick. It opened at 141 and is down to 139.5 and likely to fall (maybe to 137.5ish). Portland State UNDER bets have cashed at the rate of 14-5 on the season, 5-0 L5, 7-3 in conference, and 9-2 on the road. This will be Portland State’s 4th straight road game in 12 days, traveling to Weber State, then 2 days later to Idaho, then 5 days later to Northern Colorado, back home and on the road again down the coast 400+ miles to Sacramento.
Likewise, Sacramento State UNDER bets have cashed 11-6 on the season, 4-1 L5, and 7-4 in conference play. Sacramento is finally home after a 3 game road trip traveling everywhere mentioned above. Their last three matchups have a combined total of 132 ppg. First game off a three game road trip angles have been historically significant with a theory that the returning home team may be reeling from the lingering travel effects and the distractions of returning home and getting back into taking care of the remainder of their responsibilities that they don’t have to focus on while on the road. Sacramento State is ranked 133rd in the country in adjusted defense
Head to head, this matchup has cashed UNDERS in 5 of the last 6 times when Portland State plays in Sacramento.
While I admit that I wish this number was in the mid 140’s in order to fire away here, I still think there are plenty of factors worthy of considering a wager on the UNDER.
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PLAY: Portland State/Sacramento State under 139.5 (buy price – 138)
NASCAR season is upon us, they’ve been making an active effort to incorporate gambling into the sport. Luckily for us, I’m from the NASCAR capital, have capped this sports for 5 years now and have been to hundreds of races in my life. With such a shift in the sport, not only with wagers but they have a new package ready to go for the 2019 season and we are ready to go and get some dough over the next 40 weeks, with that being said. The Clash which is NASCAR’s exhibition race that kicks off the 2019 Speedweeks takes place at 3PM today. This race is ran at Daytona International Speedway and betting on the Superspeedway tracks (Daytona & Talladega) require a different approach. The most interesting thing about plate racing is that literally anyone has a shot to win. With that being said, there are certain drivers that are really good at plate racing and some drivers struggle. In normal races I prefer to pick head to head matchups, and bet smaller on race winner; but with plate racing it is best to pick the race winner because you get a lot more value than a typical race. This race has no implications on the points for the season so everyone is trying to do one thing. Win!
The odds to win are listed below:
HARVICK 7/1
KESELOWSKI 7/1
LOGANO 7/1
ALMIROLA 10/1
BOWYER 10/1
ELLIOTT 10/1
HAMLIN 10/1
BLANEY 12/1
BUSCH 12/1
SUAREZ 16/1
BUSCH 16/1
TRUEX Jr 20/1
BOWMAN 20/1
JONES 25/1
JOHNSON 25/1
LARSON 30/1
MENARD 30/1
McMURRAY 30/1
DILLON 30/1
NEWMAN 30/1
The best approach is to pick 2/3 of the favorites, 1/2 mid-pack drivers, and one long shot. I usually try to pick 4/5 drivers max. Depending on what your budget is for the race will determine the winnings. For me, I will work with a $200 budget.
Brad Keselowski +700 – $55 to win $385 ($240 net profit with win)
Joey Logano +700 – $55 to win $385 ($240 net profit with win)
Ryan Blaney +1200 – $35 to win $420 ($250 net profit with win)
Kyle Busch +1200 – $35 to win $420 ($250 net profit with win)
Kyle Larson +3000 – $20 to win $600 ($420 net profit with win)
DraftKings can also be a very profitable venture, my free lineup for todays Race is (1) Kurt Busch (9) Chase Elliott (10) Aric Almirola (11) Denny Hamlin (19) Martin Truex Jr (22) Joey Logano
Twitter: @BobbybetsATS NBA Free play will be out shortly
Kent state is 4-3-1 ATS away and Akron is 3-6 ATS at home. Both of these teams are very middle of the road with Kent State playing faster and the better offense with Akron the slower team with the better defense. Who controls the pace of this game is my big question? Kent State only shoots 40.6% on the road but the Zips only shoot a tad over 43% at home. Akron is coming off of a terrible shooting performance at only 28% field goal percentage so this is a small system play for me but not too confident.
Akron -4 small and lean under 134
Lets go to the MAAC. I think that you may really like this game Kyle!
Siena vs Manhattan+1 O/U 113 One of the lowest totals of the year
Manhattan ranks 341st in adjusted tempo on Kenpom while Siena ranks 352 out of 353 teams. The only slower team is Virginia. Siena is 8-3 ATS as an away team and Manhattan is 5-5 ATS at home this year. Manhattan has been terrible this year but somehow won their last 3 games at home. The Jaspers already lost at Siena this year 50-43 so revenge may be on their minds. Manhattan has even played slower in conference by 1 possession per game and almost a second more for average possession length. I have this game Sienna 56 – 55 and will probably bet the under.
Under 113 small
February 10th
Wisconsin vs Michigan -5 O/U 121
Well I have already Capped this game in Wisconsin and was successful when the Badgers handed the Wolverines their first loss of the season. Wisconsin is a good road team at 6-3 ATS on the road while Michigan is 6-8 at home. You have to see that this is a huge revenge spot for Michigan because they remember well that first loss and terrible shooting percentage that they had against Wisconsin. From a metrics standpoint Wisconsin’s pack line defense matches up well against the Wolverines because they are a dribble drive type team but they do not shoot the ball well at only 35% from 3. Ethan Happ is a mismatch for Jon Teske or pretty much anyone who plays him. My question is how motivated will Wisconsin be? They just beat their rival Minnesota and got revenge, they already beat Michigan once and have to now face them on the road. They have a wounded Michigan State team on deck at home. This is kind of a sandwich spot. I think that defense travels and you will see Wisconsin give Michigan some fits but I am really not willing to jump on side here. The easiest way to beat Wisconsin is to get Happ in foul trouble and on the road that is very likely to happen against one of the best coaches in Jon Bieline. I however do like the under in this game down to about 116 because Wisconsin’s defense should travel.
Wisconsin under 121
Kentucky vs Mississippi State +2 O/U 142
Kentucky is 5-1 ATS on the road and 13-9 overall. My theory on this is because of that meaningless Duke game they played and got blown out. There still may be some value because of this. Mississippi State is 8-10 ATS overall and 6-6 at home. Kentucky is 7-0 ATS their last 7 games and it is because of how Reid Travis and PJ Washington are such a force inside the paint. The only way to beat Kentucky in my opinion is by being able to hit the 3 at a consistent basis. Mississippi state ranks 60th in three point percentage which isn’t nearly enough. They are also coming off of an overtime game against LSU where they had the lead and choked it away just on Wednesday. I do not see how they can bounce back from that and I love Kentucky all the way to -5.
Kentucky -2 BIG all the way to -5
Washington vs ASU +2 O/U 139
Arizona State is 7-5 ATS at home while Washington is a wonderful 5-1 ATS away. The Huskies haven’t even lost a Pac 12 game yet this year. The Huskies are great and have been flying under the radar but I also think that Arizona State is clearly the second best team to me in the Pac 12. Being that Washington beat Arizona and ASU lost to WASU on thursday, I see a bounce back spot for the Sun Devils. I like a small play on the home dog here but just a lean at Pickem. I will most likely be playing the UNDER 139 on the short rest
ASU +2 small – Under 139
Duke vs Virginia -5 O/U 135
How can you not love this game. Offense vs Defense. Slow vs Fast. I have seen these spots before and Duke always seems to show up big. Probably will take the dog if over 3 points here. Duke Ranks 4th in the nation in adjusted offense and adjusted defense. Virginia ranks a whopping (for them) 5th in adjusted offense and 2nd in adjusted defense. Key for me is Ty Jerome’s injury for Virginia. If he is out then I like this game down to a Pick-em for Duke. If he is in then I like this line down to + 2.5 for Duke. These kind of games really end up close not only cause these teams are both great but because the officiating seems to always favor the team that is currently losing Duke is the truth this year and it always seems to go right for this team.
I have my eyes on a 3-way first period play in the sole game on the NHL slate tonight in New York where the Carolina Hurricanes travel to meet up with the New York Rangers. Both teams come off overtime games where they had similar winning results (sorry for those who tailed my UNDER play in the Bruins/Rangers game that had the tying 6th goal scored in last couple minutes of the 3rd period).
Tonight, this play is purely situational for me, and I think there are some numbers that can back this up. At the risk of sounding like the guy who says “If I would have made some puts my score would be awesome”, I very badly wanted to take the Rangers in the 1st period against Boston. I wanted to because of the raw numbers. Tonight, I am going to recommend you take them, not JUST because I wish I had played it the other night, BUT more so because of the situation.
The Rangers have at least a day of rest over the Canes here. The Canes are solid and many score projection sites have models that would assume they cover ATS against the Rangers. But, knowing that the Canes went into OT last night, and are on their 3rd road game in as many days, and face two more road games after tonight, this is a sandwich spot here for the Canes that I think provides a reason to look at the Rangers in the first period.
On Bovada, as an example, you can take the Rangers 3-way betting line in the first period for +180. From a long term betting perspective, in the NHL especially, these are the kind of sweet spots to look for given there is so much positive EV.
Stats to back up the play: Rangers at home first period GF/GA – 25/18 on the season; Canes averaging 2.6 goals in division play and 2.8 in road games while giving up 3.1 gpg on the road. Opponents shooting 12.6% L4 games against Mrazek who is slated in the posts tonight for Carolina; Lundqvuist solid at home holding opponents to 9%. Rangers home defense ranks 9th in goals allowed compared to Canes road offense ranking of 20th in goals scored. Will the Canes outperform their season rankings (which assumes ups and downs through the year) off a B2B road game, without rest, playing their third road game in 4 days? Worth investing that they won’t!
Play: Rangers 1st Period 3-way line +180
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Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a jam-packed show for you today! Kiev opens up the show with his big 10 rankings. Professional handicapper Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks is back! We first discuss some NCAA Coaches and their rising and falling values. Then we get into some teams that may be under and over valued as well as some NCAA tournament sleepers. Next we get into some great games for the weekend. Finally Dan Everett @dedgesportpicks is back and comes in firing with his Big east rankings and games for Saturday.
NCAA: Duke vs Virginia, Kentucky vs Mississippi State, Wisconsin vs Michigan, Washington vs ASU, Kent State vs Akron, Siena vs Manhattan, Providence vs St Johns, Depaul vs Xavier, Villanova vs Marquette.
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