Here you have 2 teams that have both lost their last games. Rutgers lost at home to Northwestern and Nebraska lost at home to Michigan State. Now these teams face off in Jersey each with a strong motivation to win. The keys to this handicap are really 3 things. Both teams play slow and rank in the bottom 230 in pace of play. Rutgers has a top 50 defense and Nebraska has a top 25 defense. Rutgers offense is terrible ranking 231 and their top scorer Eugene Omoruyi is still out. Being that this game is in Rutgers, I do not expect Nebraska to play out of their minds. 59% of tickets on the under and 98% of the money is on the under as of this morning.
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#NFL fans are like Chicago Cub fans and Kiev discusses why that is. We then goes into why the NFL is such a dumpster fire and some much needed rule changes. Kiev then go into our FIRST NFL play for the Superbowl! LA Rams vs New England Patriots. Lastly we give out a College Basketball free play for 1/21 in the Nebraska vs Rutgers game.
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So at the current numbers:Saints -3 -110 – 52% of the tickets are on the Saints but 55% of the money is on the Saints. After the Watson news the line dropped from -3.5 to -3. Slight correlation there but there are some syndicate groups that like the rams. Literally split at -3
Total 56.5: 52% of the tickets are on the over but 71% of the money is on the over. So this dropped from 57 with some groups and now is being hit on the over. Most of the sharp action is on the over. I disagree personally because of the running games of both teams. I Might be a buyer of the under if it gets up there past 57.
Kansas City -3 (-120) 57% of the tickets are on the Chiefs and 56% of the money.Very mixed but you can see that the line was brought up to -120 with sharper action earlier in the week. The books didn’t come off 3 due to Patriot money fears. Numbers say Chiefs especially Home/Road splits but History and experience favor the Patriots. I think ML is safest.
Total 56.5: 52% of the tickets is on the over but 48% of the money is on the over. Weather brought this total down to 54.5 and then the forecast became more favorable and it’s back up to 56.5. I like the under due to the cold and the fact that the wind is starting to show up. 9 MPH isn’t a lot but its not a little either.
Well we saw this show before. Some people said that this was the best game that they have ever seen? Well I bet to differ but the offense was absolutely crazy this game with the Saints winning 45-35 so maybe it was at least the best game in the regular season. This may be a bit of a complex handicap and it’s time to dig deep. First of all, there is no coaching mismatch. Both Sean Peyton and Sean McVey are top 5 in the game right now. The bad thing for the Saints is that they just lost Sheldon Rankins with a torn Achilles tendon. He was a huge run plugger on the line and may especially be missed against the Rams 3rd best run game in the NFL. David Onyemata will have to step up in his absence like he finished the game against the Eagles. Ben Watson is also out but he wasn’t targeted much the last few games. Now if you look the Rams, they happened to come out of their last game relatively healthy but they are still feeling that injury to WR Cooper Kupp from earlier in the year who helped them play the Saints in their first meeting. The Rams played a brilliant game against the Cowboys. They did everything that they had to do to hold onto that nice halftime lead and end up winning by 8 points. Their running game is really what showed up with CJ Anderson coming out of nowhere. Surprise Surprise. Now I ran the numbers here on home/road splits and actually came up with more of a pick-em time game rather than a 3.5 point spread for the Saints. Why is that you ask? Well I’ll tell you. The Rams numbers are exceptionally good on the road and for some reason their defense is better on the road allowing only 338 yards per game on the road compared to 371 at home? LA’s defensive yards per point is also way better on the road at 17 compared to 13.5 at home. Now why is that? Well if you look at who they played at home and who they played on the road it is a huge discrepancy. LA’s toughest road games were at the Saints and Seahawks. The rest of them were pretty average to bad offenses like the Lions, Broncos, Raiders and let’s not forget how bad those other 2 teams in the NFC west were. At home, the Rams had the Chiefs, Eagles, Chargers, Vikings and Packers so you see it is hard to go by away numbers. Now for the Saints side, they seemed to catch the hard teams at home such as their very hard division and the Eagles, Rams and Steelers. Being the big discrepancy, I used complete averages in my algorithm at have the Saints winning by 3.5 points. Well that is right at the spread right? Well there are a couple more things missing in this Handicap. When the Rams rushing game is humming they are a dangerous team and can beat anybody right? Wrong and I am going to give you some reasons why it is wrong. First, the Saints rushing defense is only 2nd to the Bears only allowing 78 yards per game and they are even a bit better than that at home. This could play a huge factor in this game! Plus if the Saints can grab the lead with that high powered weapons of Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, the Rams could become one dimensional. Secondly, the Saint’s special teams are better at home than the Rams. Field position can be key in a huge football game. Third, it is hard to factor in what the Saint’s real numbers are due to the fact that in most cases, they had control of every game and ran the clock at the end. Fourth, the Saint’s strength of schedule has been harder than the Rams ranking 13th on Sagarin to the Rams 23rd. Fifth and Finally, as I stated before, this is Drew Brees’s chance to be like Peyton Manning, Big Ben and Tom Brady by cementing his legacy with over 1 Superbowl ring. With these extra factors and a huge Who-dat home field advantage I have the Saints winning this game by 6 at a score of 30-24. The Play is the Saint’s -3.5.
Saints -3.5 and lean under 57
Prop Bet: Ted Ginn to score a TD +200 & over 3.5 receptions. With Ben Watson out, Drew Brees will need to find more targets. Ginn recieved 7 Targets against the Eagles.
New England vs Kansas City -3 O/U 54.5
We have a very exciting game here! For coaching we have playoff success vs playoff failure. For quarterback we have greatest of all time vs the amazing student of the game. This looks like it will be an exiting one for sure. Let’s start with the Patriots. What can we say? Best franchise in history. Tom Brady looked like he was 25 years old again vs the Chargers. Now let me repeat that last part. Vs the Chargers. Here is my point. We discussed this many times. This LA team did the absolute exact opposite of what you are supposed to do to beat Brady. They played zone rather than man press with the blitz. The game was over after the first half giving up 35 points. Now I do not know if that was more Gus Bradley’s stupidity or Anthony Lynn’s incompetence. One thing is for sure, they didn’t do Phillip Rivers any favors for his legacy. Because of all of this people are scared shitless to bet the Chiefs. That is actually understandable for many reasons looking at Andy Reid’s playoff record compared to Belicheck. Now the Patriots have been extremely bad on the road and their home road splits have been insanely different. They average 34 points per game at home and 22 points on the road. They allow only 18 points per game at home and 24 points on the road. I mean they scored only 10 points at the Titans, Lions and Steelers. The Pats also have a 150 net yards per game difference between on the road and at home. Biggest difference in the NFL. The big question is does it matter because it is a playoff game? Well hell yes it should matter. It’s not like the Patriots are not trying to win these road games. Now we can keep talking about how great the Chiefs are on offense like usual and hate on them on defense but what’s the point? We know who they are. What I like about the Chiefs D lately is that they only allowed 18 points and 340 yards per game over their last 3 games. The big thing for me is will they play man press, stack the box to stop the run and blitz Tom Brady this game in order to bring the pressure? It is a great question because it is going to be cold and so will the field which is highly suitable for the run game. The Patriots have been great running the ball great over the last few games and rank 5th in rushing for the whole year. They also are top 10 in stopping the run. I do trust Bob Sutton to stack the box and play man press and the chase game against Tom Brady since he plays a lot of man anyways. What I don’t trust for the Chiefs is the Patriots running game being able to make a difference in this cold game. I also wonder how Bellichek is going to stop Tyreke Hill and Travis Kelcey. You really can’t take both of these guys away without leaving some wide open options for Pat Mahomes. Counting home road splits I have the Chiefs winning by 6 with a total of 44 points but counting straight average numbers I have the Chiefs by 3 with a total of 47. The under is probably the way to go here.
Here are 2 teams both going in the opposite directions. Ohio State is 3-7 ATS at home while Maryland is 4-0 ATS on the road. Maryland has been on a tear winning 6 games in a row while Ohio State hasn’t won since the big 10 opener. Both teams are relatively injury free. What the hell is going on with with this Ohio State team? If you look at their schedule, they haven’t beaten anybody in the top 50 since their first game against Cincinnati. I think their loss of Bates Diop may be showing its ugly face. One thing that sticks out to me is that this team does not have a great offense or 3 point percentage but they do have a decent defense ranking 20th on kenpom. Maryland has actually been a pretty good scoring team averaging 77 points per game but only 70 on the road. Ohio State averages 80 at home themselves but if you look at some of the teams that they have played, you might not be that impressed. When they had to step up to tougher competition in top 50 teams like Syracuse, Iowa, Michigan State and Cincinnati, they only averaged 64 points. Ohio State hasn’t beaten a top 50 team. I think Maryland keeps it close but I also like the Under 139
Under 139 and Lean Maryland +2
Ohio vs Toledo -10.5 O/U 140.5
Ohio is coming in a very young team with a lot to prove this year while Toledo is exceeding expectations at a great record of 14-3. Toledo averages 80 points per game both at home and on the road. Toledo also only allows 63 points per game at home which is great. When you look at the teams that Toledo beat you realize why the numbers are so crazy. Toledo hasn’t beaten a top 100 team all year and the only ones that they have played, they lost to number 19 Buffalo by 30 points and lost at home to number 91 Ball State by 15. Ohio has had a much harder schedule with more losses but they have been able to beat teams like FIU, Detroit, Marshall and Ball State. Ohio hasn’t been much on offense ranking 314 in adjusted efficiency but they do rank higher on defense than Toledo at 49th in the country to Toledo’s 90th. I think this game will be a bit closer in a same state rivalry
Ohio +10.5
Northwestern vs Rutgers +1.5 O/U 129
So there are 2 things about these teams that we have to remember. Northwestern lost some top production last year with Lindsey an Macintosh and therefore isn’t quite as good and Rutgers is definitely a little bit better and has a few quality wins vs Miami and Ohio State. Neither team here is really that good at anything and both suffer on offense not even ranking in the top 120. Rutgers has had the harder schedule and Northwestern has had no big wins although they have great potential for the future with Vic law and Derek Pardon. The problem for the Wildcats is that Vic Law is their best player and has been injured the past few games. Eugene Omoruyi is Rutgers best player and is also questionable. The Handicap here is correct at NU -1.5 if Law plays but if he doesn’t then I really like Rutgers parlayed with the under. If both Law and OMoruyi is out then I love the under.
Update: Both Vic law and Eugene Omoruyi is out. Under 129!
Michigan vs Wisconsin +2 O/U 125
It is certainly a big surprise to myself and probably many Michigan fans how good this team has been after losing their best players Abdur Rahkman and Moe Wagner last year. Now we know that the rest of the team certainly has improved and they are also probably the best coached team in the big 10 if not the NCAA. Wisconsin on the other hand has definite talented in their Guards and Center position, but is also extremely bipolar. Sometimes they can just straight up ball and hit everything and sometimes they look like they haven’t shot a basket in 3 months. Coach Greg Gard doesn’t really have this team disciplined at all. For example last game they were down by 3 to Maryland with 30 seconds left and they ran the clock out on themselves without coach calling a time out or even taking a shot until about 9 seconds left. The Badgers used to be great at the disciplined areas in the game under Bo Ryan being great at free throws and offensive boards but now they rank 293rd in free throw percentage and 309 in offensive rebounds. Michigan has kinda replaced Wisconsin in some of these disciplined areas being tops in turnovers, steals and 3rd in the whole league on defense. In saying all this I think Wisconsin has a shot at winning this. If you look at the match-ups and the metrics, the Badgers match up very well against the Wolverine’s. Michigan has a high motion offense that leverages the dribble drive. Wisconsin runs a pack line defense that doesn’t try and go for steals and make huge break away plays but it forces their opponents to play in the perimeter and that is where some of Michigan’s speedy guys like Simpson, Pool and Mathews may be forced to play play the 20 foot jump shot game. Michigan only ranks 69th in the league in three point percentage so playing the pack line may be difficult. Wisconsin has a good defense but their weakness is definitely against big guys down low. Michigan really doesn’t play a big man type game down low and motion doesn’t mess up Wisconsin as much as the post. John Teske is a huge Center for Michigan but he will be well defended against Happ, Reuvers and Thomas down low. Michigan also does not have an answer Wisconsin’s best player center Ethan Happ. Wagner last year was able to play Happ tough and even though I do like Jon Teske as a player, I do not think he knows what he is up against. Ethan Happ is the most wirey center that I have ever seen down low. From a scheduling standpoint, Wisconsin’s ranks 10th hardest in the nation while Michigan’s ranks 96th. Now the straight raw numbers has this game pickem at 62-62. Looking at last year these teams are not far from what they were last year except Wisconsin has gotten better and Michigan has stayed close to the same. Last year these 2 team played at the Kohl Center and Michigan won 83-72. Both of these teams average 74 points per game. I see a hard fought game here and I think that this total may be a bit too low.
Taking the Over 125 and Wisco +2 and ML
Oakland vs Detroit -5
This play is a straight up trend play. Detroit is 6-1 ATS at home while Oakland is 4-5 ATS on the road. Long travel spot
Detroit -5
Pittsburgh vs Syracuse -7 – 129 O/U
This is a let down spot play – Syracuse beat Duke and they really shot out of their minds that game. I think that the Orange played out of their minds that game really. They shot well that game compared to their normal numbers. All year Syracuse ranks 247th in field goal percentage while Pittsburgh ranks 142. Syracuse also doesn’t normally hit 44% from 3 like in that game and instead they are at about 31%. look for the let down and take Pitt right before the game starts. I like how Pitt played their last few games beating Louisville and Florida State outright and losing to NC State by only 6.
Pittsburgh +8
Virginia vs Duke -1.5
This is the shortest handicap because if you watch any college basketball then you know these teams. This would be a great spot for Duke to get back on their feet from the Syracuse loss if it wasn’t for the fact that they will be without Tre Jones at Point Guard. Virginia is the best team on Kenpom. I have to go with the defense here while fading the injury to Duke. Tony Bennett is a beast of a coach and they are having a revenge tour this year after being the first number 1 seed in history to be ousted in the NCAA Tournament by 16 seed UMBC. I like Virginia any + money down to a Pickem.
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NCAA Basketball weekends are back with the OddsBreakers! Today we go over our weekend plays and then go into NFL sharp line movements!
NCAA: Michigan vs Wisconsin – Syracuse vs Pittsburgh – Maryland vs Ohio State and more!
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Tonight we’ll see the Warriors host The Pelicans one night after exploding on Denver. I think Golden State really wanted to make a statement last night and thats why we saw them total 142 against one of the better defensive teams in the Association. I don’t think we’ll see the same enthusiasm as we did a night ago. Pelicans will be morivated on their end but the over has a losing Record in Pels road games, just like it is with Golden State home games. 241 is the total for tonight, I think it will be hard to match that number tonight. They only totaled 253 last night and thats with an amazing performance, I dont think NOLA can score enough to top this number especially with them on the Road. Pick: Under 241 Pels/Warriors
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After a disappointing weekend we recap some of the NFL games as well as bankroll management. Let’s get back on the horse! We then go into our NFL plays for Conference weekend. LA Rams vs New Orleans Saints – New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs.
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Marquette has been playing very well this year with losses to only Indiana, Kansas and St John’s. Markus Howard continues to lead the way for this team, with the Hauser brothers putting up their fair share as well.
Georgetown has been exceeding expectations overall this season, but have been mediocre at best in conference play. They beat Butler and Providence, while losing to St John’s and Xavier.
Whether you want to look at power ratings or at recent trends, they both tend to point in one direction. The average public power rating has Marquette by 5-6 points in this one. Here are the current trends:
Marquette 10-7 ATS overall vs Georgetown 6-10-1 ATS Marquette 8-5 ATS after a win vs Georgetown 5-5-1 ATS after a win Marquette 6-6 ATS after 2-3 days rest vs Georgetown 3-6-1 ATS after 2-3 days rest
Take Marquette -2 & ML
Seton Hall vs Providence (-1.5)
This game comes down to a tail of two teams going in different directions. Seton Hall has been playing well this year, where Providence has been disappointing especially in conference games.
The public power ratings are averaging this game as a pick. There’s really only one trend that is useful here as well:
Providence is 4-5 ATS as home favorite vs Seton Hall is 3-1 as a road dog
This line came out perfect here at pick-em. At first there was some on the home team steam (Providence) bringing the spread to -1.5 and now you see some towards the dog (Seton Hall). When you dive a little deeper into the match-up, you notice that Seton Hall’s numbers are better than Providence in both offense and defense. You also notice that the Pirate’s have had a much harder schedule ranking 15th in the nation on Kenpom beating teams teams like Maryland, St Johns and Kentucky compared to the Friars ranking 115th who hasn’t beaten anybody good other than Texas. My numbers have this game closer to a pick-m at Providence but since the Friars are off of a double overtime game and emotional loss on Saturday vs Georgetown, I have to think they are a little bit emotionally spent. I also like the fact that Seton Hall lost but outplayed Marquette in the second half on Saturday. Lastly, home court advantage isn’t quite as good until the students all get back from winter break.
Seton Hall +1.5
Quick Hitter: I am taking Marquette -2.5 and over 158 vs Georgetown. Marquette is 10-7 ATS while Georgetown is 6-10-1. Georgetown has one of the worst defenses in the league allowing 80 points per game at home. They also play at one of the fastest paces in the league at 78.9 possessions per game (top 15 in the nation). Marquette plays faster than average as well and knows how to score the ball very well. So if there is any chance that Georgetown beats Marquette it will be because they outscored them so the over should hit easily if that is the case. If the Hoyas get destroyed by the Golden Eagle’s half way decent defense then we cover easily and “might” miss the over. It is highly doubtful that Georgetown both wins and the game goes under. I like both of these plays especially since Georgetown is off their over time game as well and should not be able to beat Marquette and tire out at the end. This is a correlated play.
