You can catch tonights free play on TNT when Lebron brings the Lakers to TD Garden. Funny to see this two, both supposed front runners in the AD Race meet hours after the trade window closes. It’s likely the race will resume in the summer, it’s also likely Luke Walton lost the locker room and his job. Lakers don’t look cohesive, or focused for that matter. These national spots also tend to bring the best out, It wouldn’t surprise me to see Lebron wheel the Lakers to a back door cover, it also wouldn’t surprise me to see a repeat of what we saw from LA in Indiana. Ultimately I see this being like an Eastern Conference game from 2013 in the low 200s.
Pick: Lakers/Celtics under 227
NBA free play
Lay UNDER in the Big Sky tonight
I have released an UNDER play that I think is worthy of consideration in a Big Sky Conference matchup between Portland State and Northern Colorado. This is purely a conference play total’s play angle here with trends to back up the play.
Here are some results that back up the play: Unders are 16-5 combined in conference play between these two squads, 9-1 combined in last five games for each team, 15-5 combined in last 10 games for each team. Portland State unders are 8-2 on the road on the season and 13-5 in total on the season. In the last two weeks, offenses have averaged totals of 136, L4 weeks – 143. Portland State has the 257th ranked adjusted offense and they have faced the 326th ranked adjusted defenses. N. Colorado comes into this game ranked 190th in adjusted defense and their strength of schedule numbers suggest that Portland State’s offensive output is not anything they can’t handle.
Total is sitting at 146.5 at the time of this article.
Play: Under 146.5
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Summit Conference Free Play
I think the wrong team is favored here in Vermillion, South Dakota tonight and recommend a play with the road team, Nebraska-Omaha here tonight. My blended power ratings here have Neb-Omaha a -4 favorite tonight on the road at South Dakota. I think the books are overvaluing home court here for South Dakota as their statistical matrics shouldn’t make South Dakota a favorite.
Neb-Omaha has the 53th ranked adjusted offense according to KenPom. Now, I recognize that you will look at their 305th ranked adjusted defense and pause with some concern. While that ranking is suspicious, their average opponent’s adjusted offense is ranked 160th in the country. South Dakota’s offense is a far cry from that, averaging 66 ppg and ranked 234th in adjusted offense while facing opponent’s defenses averaging 274th in the country. Couple those matchup favorables with the fact that these two teams play two different styles. Neb-Omaha pushes the pace at 108th in adjusted tempo, whereas South Dakota slows things down – ranked 256th in adjusted tempo. If South Dakota wishes to chew clock, they have to be efficient in their points per possession – something they are not great at.
On the season, against stiffer defenses, Neb-Omaha is remarkably efficient in their two point field goals, averaging 40.4 ppg from 2, contrasted to 32.7 for South Dakota. From 3, their margins are equally similar, where Neb-Omaha averages 27.6 ppg from 3 compared to 19.6 ppg from 3 for South Dakota. These margins are significant when the spread is Neb-Omaha +1.
In order to back South Dakota here, you have to be banking that they will outpeform their season and conference statistical performances to date, and the data just doesn’t back that up. They will have to force Neb-Omaha to be less efficient offensively, and while Neb-Omaha has a lot of work to do on the defensive end, you’d have to believe that South Dakota has more offensive firepower here than their opponent. I don’t see that happening and feel like the wrong team here is favored.
Play: Neb-Omaha +1. I have released this as a multi-unit play for my twitter followers.
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HORIZON LEAGUE FREE PLAY
UW-GB is a small road favorite at Cleveland State on February 7. Currently, at open the line sits at -3.5. I see this line having the potential to be bet up to at least 5 or 6 and there is early value if you jump on it. Cleveland State looks to likely be without Kasheem Thomas and Jaalam Hill based upon their current injury reports. Both players log key minutes which is important given the pace of play for both of these teams and their need for fresh legs.
From a purely power rating standpoint, my blended power rating system has UW-GB by 7 here. UW-GB averaging 83 ppg on the season compared to CLE ST sitting around 72 ppg on the season but just 68 ppg over the last 4 weeks (conference play). When I evaluate conference play matchups, I tend to put some stock in their common opponent results – especially common conference opponents. Looking at how UW-GB handled its business against in state rival UW-M supports looking at UW-GB here. UW-GB is 15-3 L18 matchups head to head.
Play: UW-GB -3.5.
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Boston Out For Revenge Tonight in NHL
The Bruins travel to New York tonight to take on the Rangers. These two faced off on January 19 in Boston where the Rangers beat the Bruins who were a -260 favorite. I don’t necessarily want to back either side tonight, but the situation has me looking at the Under. Boston is a -150 favorite tonight but there is more value in the Under currently sitting at -120 most places.
I look for Boston to take this game to a physical level tonight, and be stingy in shot opportunities. If Boston can limit power play opportunities here, the Under has a great shot, and I believe the numbers give it the edge.
Here are some stats/trends to back the play:
UNDER WINS with BOSTON
31-19-3 on the season, which is significant
17-7-1 on the road, and 16 of last 22 on the road have cashed under tickets.
5-0 when revenging a home loss (key situation here)
7-2 when playing B2B
8-4 second half of the season
UNDER WINS with NEW YORK
3-1 when playing a winning team second half of season
12-6 when at home with a total of 6
PLAY UNDER 6 Goals
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NBA Under Worth a Look in Milwaukee
I am looking at the Under in the Bucks/Wizards matchup today. There are some strong statistics and trends that back this play, especially with the number at 230. Bucks Unders have made you money in 5 of the last 7 games, 4 of the last 5 at home, 6 of the last 8 times head to head, and 4 of the last 5 times head to head at home. WASH offensively is a different team on the road, averaging 108 ppg on the road, compared to 117 at home. The Bucks have shown some tough defensive displays recently, holding opponents under 115 or less in 8 of last 10 games. These two teams matched up on February 2 and the score was 131-115 but that was in Washington. H2H, this output is not consistent with their recent performances and I don’t see the Wizards outperforming expectations here. Bucks at home after 5 road games gives me another reason to back the under here. It opened at 230 and has hovered there. Clearly there is not an Over market here to move the total and that is a key indicator for me that at 230 the under is worth a look
Play: Wizards/Bucks under 230
Southland Conference Small Road Favorite Worth a Look
I have my eyes on a matchup in the Southland Conference where Abilene Christian is on the road tonight taking on LAMAR. The current line has Abilene Christian favored by 1. This is worth a look in my opinion. KenPom rates Abilene Christian as the 162nd adjusted offense and 189th ranked adjusted defense. These rankings out of 353 teams are noteworthy given that the Southland Conference is not one that catches most of our eyes.
Abilene Christian has a 52.7% effective FG% (EFP) as compared to LAMAR at 46.9%. I consider that gap to be statistically significant with a -1 pt spread. Additionally, take LAMAR’s relatively mediocre offensive efficiency and match it up against Abilene Christian’s defense who gives up an average of 66.8 ppg whereas LAMAR is surrendering 75.9 ppg and opponents shoot 53.2% EFP. Abilene Christian outscores their opponents on the season by 4.5 pts, compared to LAMAR with a -3.2 score margin.
I use a blended composite power rating system, where I blend several solid CBB power rating systems, and weight them according to my confidence in their numbers and further now add special weight to in-conference play. My power rating line has Abilene Christian favored by almost 9 pts on a neutral, and it is up to each sports bettor to determine what kind of home court advantage you would provide a specific team, from a specific conference, in any specific matchup. Even if you take the so-called average home court advantage of 3/3.18/3.5 pts here, there is line value. Given LAMAR’s lackluster defensive statistics and their tempo, this has a slight potential for an over consideration with the total currently sitting at 141. There is some correlation in my opinion when we get to conference play with teams of above average tempo and small spreads to overs. The theory here is that there could be some back and forth action with lead changes which tends to support higher scoring affairs than average statistics.
PLAY: Abilene Christian -1
LEAN: Over 141
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NHL Road Value Consideration
This might be as much of an angle riding a hot CHICAGO team as it is fading a struggling EDMONTON squad. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t back a team with a losing record on their third straight road game. BUT, CHICAGO rides a 4 game winning streak into EDMONTON and the fact that this is a 3rd of 3 road games is an angle I sometimes like. The theory here is that a team wants to finish their road stand with a sweep and it applies to this situation. They are not overlooking EDMONTON here and I would look for CHICAGO to face a let down against VANCOUVER in their next game coming off a road stand.
EDMONTON riding a 5 game losing streak. They are in organizational turmoil to a certain extent. While they have McDavid, that’s virtually all they have. EDMONTON is coming home from two games on the road to a fan base that cannot be electrified for them, even after the all star break.
Take CHICAGO ML +125 available at 5dimes. Follow us @CoverTheProfit on twitter for other angles and free plays.
MAC Road Favorite Worth a Look Despite Situation
I see line value here still in Bowling Green tonight. They opened as a -3.5 point road favorite and sit at -5.5 at the time of this write up. The line is likely not higher because folks may consider this to be a let down and sandwich situational spot for BGSU. They are coming off a huge conference win against BUFFALO, and face TOLEDO on February 9. So, one would think that this matchup against lowly conference foe W. MICH may not afford them a max effort display. I don’t think they need to perform at or above season statistical averages to cover this line, even at -5.5. WMICH gives up 80+ ppg in conference play and over L5 games. BGSU has an explosive offense. BGSU ATS: 7-1 in conference, 9-1 L10. Road favorites of under 7 in conference play where their power rating lines have 4+ points against the current spread have been successful betting angles for me this season.
Take BGSU -5.5
Florida Tough Road Spot
Earlier in the season we saw reports that Head Coach Mike White was struggling to find leaders on his team. If you watched their game against KENTUCKY on Saturday, you saw them control that game – UNTIL around the 9 minute mark of the second half. The effort was pitiful from a physical standpoint from that point on (in front of a crowd that supported them), and KENTUCKY won by 11. Now they are on the road today against AUBURN, and face TENNESSEE on the road on Feb. 9. This is a horrible spot unless you think they are glad to be away from their home crowd/fanbase. AUB comes in averaging 80+ ppg in all statistical categories, and I don’t see FLORIDA keeping up with their tempo or slowing them down.
Take AUB -8 tonight.
