Have you ever noticed that sometimes a team that may be pretty bad just seems to have the other teams number? Well this comes into play for the Northwestern vs Michigan games. Dating back to the 2016/17 season, Northwestern even though inferior to Michigan has beaten the Wolverines 2 out of 4 times. Northwestern is 4-5 ATS vs Michigan since 2016. This year’s first match-up, Michigan barely escaped with a win at Welsh-Ryan arena. Let’s look at the +12. What worries me a little about the Northwestern side here is that they have not been a good road team thus far. Now we all know how good that the Wolverine’s are and they are playing great defense ranking 4th in the Nation on Kenpom but if you look at the Wildcats D, it isn’t too shabby ranking 30th. The thing that makes me think twice about the Northwestern side his that they rank 126th on offense and 253rd in field goal percentage which doesn’t bode well when playing on the road. The value that I find in this game is that all of the last 3 games with these 2 teams facing each other all went under the total. Michigan averages just 65.7 possessions per game while Northwestern isn’t too far behind at 66.8. Michigan is also a pretty bad free throw team. Looking at these defenses and the tempo, I like the under 127 here and have the game Michigan wining 67-57.
Under 127 and lean Northwestern +12
Michigan State vs Penn State +7.5 O/U 141
Ok here is an ugly one for you. Michigan State is one of the hottest teams out there and they have’t lost since they played Louisville on November 27th. Penn State on the other hand has been cold losing 4 out of their last 5 games although 4 of those 5 were on the road. I am going to keep this one short and sweet. The Spartens are a different road team than home team this year. Their true road games haven’t been that impressive to me losing at Louisville by 4, beating bottom of the barrel big 10 Rutgers by only 11 points and Florida by 4. They did handle business against Ohio State winning by 9 points but I think we are starting to see that the Buckeyes are not who we thought they were. Penn State on the other hand is still very motivated to make the tournament and will be looking to get it right at home after that embarrassing loss without their coach to the Badgers. Lastly, Joshua Langford will be missing this game for Michigan State due to injury. I know that the Buckeyes beat Purdue at home without him, but the Boilermakers only shot 31% that game and they live and die by the 3. Sharp money is on the Nittany Lions here with a 30% difference and I am going with that.
Colts +5.5 down to +5 is sharp at the Kansas City Chiefs 60% of the tickets on the Colts and 67% of the money on the Colts – 7%. Total: Under 57 was slightly sharp at 4%
Opinion: The fact that this line stayed around +5.5 all week really tells you that maybe the line should be 3. I like the total under 57 because of the weather and playoff football.
Dallas vs LA Rams -7 – 57% of the tickets are on big D and 56% of the money on Dallas. 1% on Rams. Total: at 48.5 is very balanced
Opinion: No good info. There is opposite opinions from different groups and syndicates on this game. I like the live betting option best
LA Chargers +4 55% of the tickets on the Chargers and 65% of the money. 10% Sharp. Total: 47.5 this bounced around a lot and 57% tickets on the over but 79% of the money is on the over. 22% difference and is a sharp side.
Opinion: So both Public and Sharp on the dog here. Numbers say Chargers and History Says Patriots. I personally prefer the dog. As for the total I am not running to the counter to bet the over 48 in 23 degree weather.
Philadelphia +8 – 53% of the tickets on Philadelphia and 57% of the money. 14% sharp. Total: 51.5 75% of tickets on the over and 95% of the money is on the over. 20% sharp side
Opinion: Philly is a true sharp side here and it came in late. I personally disagree but not enough to take a -8. Good for a teaser in my opinion on the Saints but I may take the Saints at the half if the line is right. As for the total over 51 is a key number so I do not like the 51.5. If you can find under 51 then I like the total over as well.
If you look at both of these teams you think top 30 and both tournament this year. Purdue has an outstanding guard in Carson Edwards scoring 24.5 points per game but there is a significant drop off after him. There is only 1 more guy at Purdue who averages double digit points and that is Senior guard Ryan Cline at 12.5 per game. Wisconsin on the other hand has 3 guys in double digits with Ethan Happ, D’Mitrik Trice and Brad Davidson with a much better defense than Purdue. One thing that I like to look at this time of year when handicapping college basketball is home road splits. Purdue at home averages a nice fat 82 points per game but when they get on the road it is down to 74. Wisconsin at home average a fat 81 points per game at home and only 69 on the road showing a huge varience how much better they are at the Kohl Center. The fact that Wisconsin plays a slower game and outranks Purdue in both FG percentage 50% at home to Purdue’s 42.7% on the road speaks volumes. The Badgers had a stinker against the Gophers their last game at home and may be looking for some redemption for the fans. Purdue also will be without swing forward Evan Boudreaux having a pulled groin who is their 4th best scorer. The fact that Purdue is 0-4 straight up against top 25 teams and 1-3 on the road ATS takes the cake. The formula here is simple. Stop Carson Edwards and win big. I have Wisconsin winning this 73-62.
Wisconsin -5 and lean under 137
Saturday 1/12
Virginia vs Clemson +7 (guess)
So this is a spot that I look for in College Basketball. You have a team like Clemson who is 10-5 and hungry for another tournament birth facing an undefeated and great Virginia team at home. The keys to this game is that Clemson was without Andre Reed for a while and I believe that some of those losses are going to be affected in this line. You also really can’t look at trends when a key player like him was injured. I like 4 things here. First, Reed is back over the last few games and now healthy. Secondly this is Clemson’s ACC home opener which they will definitely show up for to try and flex their muscles. Thirdly Clemson just faced another slow and methodical team in Syracuse. The Syracuse 2-3 zone is similar to their Pack-line Defense of Virginia’s and Clemson should now be ready for it. The last thing is that Virginia will be looking ahead to their rival number 9 Virginia Tech and may sleep walk through this game.
Clemson +7 and ML sprinkle
Pittsburgh vs NC State -12 O/U 157
So Pittsburgh is coming off of a very nice W against Louisville and this is I think the spot they let down. Pittsburgh has been kinda a hot and cold team all year but they really haven’t faced a ton of adversity or a hard schedule. I like the fact that NC State just lost their last game against North Carolina and should be poised for a bounce back spot. Pittsburgh doesn’t rank over 47th in any major category on offense even with this easy schedule yet somehow they are still 11-4 due to the bottom of the barrell teams that they have beaten. NC State on the other hand is 6th in points per game, 5th in field goal percentage, 11th in 3 point percentage and 12th in assists. NC State plays at a very fast at 75.2 plays per game adjusted for opponent which ranks 10th in the nation. Because of this they can easily run up the scores on bad teams. The Wolfpack averages 90 points per game at home and the Panthers average 69 points per game on the road. I have NC State here winning 89 to 74 here so I actually think that they can cover this spread as well as nail the over. Lets see where these lines come out but I like NC State up to 14
NC State -12 Lean over 157
Ohio State vs Iowa -2
Ohio State is coming off 2 losses in a row here one good vs Michigan State and one bad vs Rutgers while Iowa is coming off 2 nice wins vs Nebraska and Northwestern. Ohio State is dying for a win here and it would be pretty bad to drop 3 in a row starting big 10 play. That should be all the motivation in the world. Iowa seems to play much better at home on offense but on D they still give up 72 points per game whether at home or on the road. I have Iowa winning 75-74 from a Kenpom perspective but when you factor in the spot I think Ohio State may be slightly more motivated here. I would lean Ohio State at any dog here and might make a play on the over.
Josh McDaniels? Who the hell is he? You have to give it up to Frank Reich for the amazing job that he has done there winning their first playoff game on the road with ease. The Colts are arguably the hottest team in the NFL next to the Eagles. Now the Colts have to face arguably the best team in the NFL in the KC Chiefs. Now one thing that the Colts have going for them is their defense has really stepped it up since being healthy. Since November 11th they have held teams to an average of 15.6 points per game. On the other hand we all know that KC has the best offense in the league at 426 yards per game. Their big problem is really their defense allowing a second most 406 yards per game. A match-up key to this game that could favor the Chiefs is that the Colts allow the most yards against tight ends at 77 per game so not good facing a guy like Travis Kelcey. Find a Kelcey Prop maybe for this game. On the other hand. Kansas City gives up the second most touchdowns to tight ends at 10 this year so think a little about Ebron as well. I have the Colts losing to the Chiefs 26 – 22 but that doesn’t really factor in how hot the Colts have been over the last few weeks. I also don’t love how KC finished the season or Andy Reid’s playoff records. It is so easy for me to see the Colts scoring a garbage TD here to cover this spread if they do not win it outright. I can’t go chiefs but my play here is the colts but being in a cold weather stadium I much prefer the under.
Under 57 lean Colts +5.5
Dallas vs LA Rams -7 O/U 49.5
Congratulations to Jason Garrett for prolonging his Job for at least 1 more year. Now I do not think that it is a good thing for Cowboy fans but it is what it is. One thing that you have to appreciate is how much Amari Cooper and tight end Blake Jarwin has meant to Zeke opening up the running game. Another thing that we have to look at is that the Rams actually rank second worst this year against tight ends allowing 67 yards per game. Now we know that the Rams statistics wise has the second best offense at 422 yards per game but their defense is not good against the run allowing a 10th worst 122 yards per game which feeds into the Cowboys strength. We know the coaching advantage has to go to the Rams here but at the same time the Boys have had a harder schedule than the Rams and maybe even had a harder division. The Rams are scary good when they are getting to the Quarterback and throwing the ball to Gurly, but can Leighton Vander Esch and that fierce defense contain him enough to cover. I think so. I have the Rams winning 25-21 hear and I am not afraid to sprinkle that shit.
Cowboys +7 and lean under 49.5
LA Chargers vs New England Patriots -4 O/U 47
Ah the Patriots. We have the best QB in the league with Tom Brady and he is also the oldest quarterback in the league at 41 years old. New England is 6-2 ATS at home and the Chargers are 8-1 on the road which we covered last week. The problem with New England is that they are a bit decimated and a shell of themselves over the last few years. There is no Legarret Blount to pound the ball on short yardage and no Danny Amendola to bail them out on sneaky plays either. Josh Gordon is done for the year for testing positive again and I also think that Gronk is beat up beat up and it shows this year. New England D has been pretty good again doing just enough to win a lot of games but they cannot sack the QB well ranking second to last in sacks per game at 1.9. Chargers are much better at sacks since Bosa has been back ranking at 3.7 sacks per game over the last 3 and a 10th best 2.7 for the year. I think the Chargers have gotten better since the mid season and the Patriots have became worse. A key for me here is that I think the Patriots have had the easiest schedule in the League this year while the Chargers are middle of the pack. If the Chargers are smart here they blitz brady a lot and play man press coverage against New Englands small WRs. I have the Patriots winning 23.5 to 21 from a numbers perspective but they are a lot closer on a neutral field. Like Chargers +4 and lean under 47.
Chargers +4 and lean under 47
Philadelphia vs New Orleans -8 O/U 50.5
Fly Eagles fly. Well Maybe God does like the Eagles being that they were the biggest underdog last week winning against my Bears because they did not deserve it. Their morning paper even said Clank you for the win. I know that I am bitter about this game but the better team really lost. The Eagles first Touchdown drive was comprised of pure penalties with a touchy pass interference call against Prince Amukamara, an unnecessary roughness penalty on Adrian Amos and a too many men on the field penalty. The Eagles scored when there were only 10 Bears on the field. Their last TD was made from Foles side arming a throw perfectly to Golden Tate against Adrian Amos which i do give them credit for but at the same time, Amos needs to jump that pass rather than follow Tate down the sideline. Mitch played a good game at the end but started off not audibling out of plays to quick slants and flats when he saw the Blitz and I thought he could have checked down a bit more rather than throwing the ball in the dirt. The Bears out-gained the Eagles by over 50 yards and fizzled out in the red zone. Dumb mistakes costed this Bears team and the ultimate dumbest of all mistakes was keeping a Kicker who missed 11 kicks this year. Parkey kicked the ball way to low and left making a standard 6 foot guy easily block it at the line of scrimage. I actually think that the tip may have helped the ball almost go in the uprights but the bears were to stubborn to see their greatest weakness who also costed them the game vs Miami and therefore home field advantage. Ok, enough of me bitching. The Saints are the real deal this year and it is like I said before the season started. Drew Breese needs that last Superbowl to cement him as equals with Peyton Manning, Big Ben and closer to Tom Brady. The big difference you will see with Breese over Mitch Trubisky is that he is not green and knows how to expose the Eagles weaknesses in their secondary and will do so right from the start. It is hard to come up with true algorithmic numbers for the Saints since they have been destroying teams and running the clock out at the end but mine with the garbage time adjustment show New Orleans winning 28-20. I think the Eagles are a bit beat up from last week so I like the Saints first half -4 and lean -8
Lean Saints -8 and Saints First half -4
Teaser – New Orleans to -2 with Indianapolis to +11
NCAA Basketball weekends are back with the OddsBreakers! Today Kiev talks about how he ranks the Big 10 teams. He then gets into some free plays for this weekend!
NCAA: Purdue vs Wisconsin – Virginia vs Clemson – Pittsburgh vs NC State and more!
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Another fantastic weekend in NFL and College sports. 7-2-1 over the weekend and nailed Clemson on Monday. Today Kiev O’Neil recaps the college football national championship as well as NFL Wildcard Weekend. Kiev also discusses some news and coaching changes in the NFL and then goes over the NFL plays for the Divisional Playoff rounds! Lastly, we get into more Sharp Line Movement in the NFL.
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For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a monmth please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
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Tonight we’ll get an entertaining matchup on ESPN tonight when the Greek Freak travels to Houston to take on the Beard. Houston has found their groove and is 8-2 in the last two, While the Bucks match that record and post some of the best numbers in the league, as well as the 2nd best record in the East. I think the Rockets are poise a serious matchup for Milwaukee, especially in Toyota Center. Both these teams have been successful in IInter-Conference play but I see this matchup favoring the Bucks. Rockets James Harden has been on fire and is a walking torch. Bucks have all the answers when dueling with the Rockets. They can play any type of game neccessary and have the pieces to outscore Houston if it turns to a shootout. Giannis will want to shine on National Television, I look for him to have a great night.
Well I must say that about 2 months ago I had Clemson about 9 point dogs to Alabama in the power ratings. What has changed? Well really nothing has changed except that about 6 weeks ago I caught on to who Clemson really is. They are not who we thought they were! I kept thinking about their Texas A&M game in the back of my mind and then finally realized that A) A&M is a great team and B) Trevor Lawrence is a HUGE upgrade over Kelly Bryant. As a matter of fact the upgrade was so big that Clemson kind of became Alabama. CLEMSON IS ALABAMA. Let’s see what we have here. We have probably the second best coach in College Football with Dabo Sweeny. We have best defensive line in college football in Clemson and without Dexter Lawrence they still can rival Alabama. As far as the defensive backs go, how did Notre Dame look passing the ball against Clemson? From a Skill position perspective we have running backs Damian Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs which became a 3 headed monster for Alabama averaging 5.3 yards per rush but looking at Clemson, they have the number 1 rushing offense with Travis Etienne leading the way averaging 6.7 yards per rush. Clemson Wide Receivers Tee Higgens, Justyn Ross and Amari Rodgers have been matchup nightmares for defensive backs while Alabama’s Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle and Henry Ruggs III have been the same force in a harder division. Now looking that the QBs, is there that much of a difference between what we have seen from Tua and Trevor Lawrence? Both QBs can make all the NFL throws and play very confident and poised. They are extremely accurate in the middle of the field and have their timing down to a milisecond of where their receivers are on the field. From a yards per play perspective Bama is second in offense at 7.9 yards per play but Clemson is high as well at 6.7 with the passing game edge to Alabama and the Running edge to Clemson. Clemson’s defensive yards per play shows better than Alabama’s showing 4.1 yards per play to Alabama’s 4.7. The Net yards per play advantage here is Alabama at .3 which isn’t too much at all. So why the 6 point spread do you ask? Well I think that you are paying a 3 point premium for the name ALABAMA and the fact that they had a harder conference schedule than Clemson. When you look at the non conference schedule you have to give it to Clemson playing Texas A&M and South Carolina while bama played Louisville and the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns. Most public power ratings has Bama winning by 1-3 points and my power ratings has Bama by 2.5 with Trevor Lawrence on a neutral field. Because of all of this I have to take the points here at +6 and don’t forget to sprinkle. If this game for some reason is left up to the rushing game due to shut down defenses then the edge has to be Clemson.
ACC Conference play just recently tipped off so you’ll be seeing more free college hoop plays. This afternoon we have Syracuse traveling to South Bend to take on the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. These two are old Big East foes and go way back, Notre Dame won last years sole matchup, The Orange are favored in this years matchup. Notre dame is 9-1 at home this year but 1-4 ATS in their last 5. Syracuse hasn’t really played a true away game other than Ohio State where they won outright as 5.5 point dogs. I think Syracuse poses an equal challenge that Virginia Tech did the other night, and they handled the Irish no problem. I think we’ll see a much better effort out of Notre Dame down the stretch of this one but will likely come up short again. Pick: Syracuse -1.5
