ESPN will Broadcast tonights matchup between the Houston Rockets & Toronto Raptors. James Harden has been unstoppable and might truly be unguardable. Kawhi Leonard will look to show off his two-way ability to the nation as most of us will tune in to see if he can slow down Harden. CP3 has been upgraded on injury report but it’s doubtful tonight is the night he returns. Houston has needed late minute heroics and dominance from the beard to stay on track. The definitely are a better team with the crowd behind them, Toronto is 4-9-1 ATS as an away favorite. I like the Raptors in the 1st half, Lowry is almost averaging a Double Double; him & Green will be needed if Toronto is going to cover. I think they’ll edge them in 1st half but look for the Beard to get them back close late. Pick: Rockets +3
Rest of Bobby’s Bets Toronto/Houston under 229 Hornets +11.5 Jazz -10 Michigan -4.5 Butler +2.5
What happened to this Indiana team that we thought was pretty good after keeping some bigs and Romeo Langford? They started their Big 10 conference schedule in January losing all 5 games that they have played, they turn the ball over at almost 20% and they can’t hit the 3. I do think that the 5 teams that Indiana has played were pretty tough in Michigan, Maryland, Nebraska, Purdue and Northwestern on the road. On the other hand Michigan has flat out balled this year and will be looking for a top seed in the NCAA tournament. Now 2 things stick out to me about Michigan. First they haven’t played that hard of a schedule yet and second, their last 2 game they did not cover the spread and lost straight up in Wisconsin. What’s the deal with only beating Minnesota by 2 points at home on Tuesday? I expect a bounce back here. On the other hand Indiana is plagued by injuries with D’Ron Davis out with an ankle and Devonte Green suspended by coach for some serious locker room issues. I just do not see how Langford and Juwan Morgan make up for all of this lost production.
Michigan -4 and the under 133.5
Buffalo vs Kent State +8 O/U 159
Oh Buffalo. Why are you so good at football and Basketball these last 2 years? Now Buffalo did drop their last game favored by 8 to Northern Illinois shooting only 36% from the field while they average 45%. Even after that Buffalo still is 11-6-1 ATS and 6-3 ATS as an away team. This Bulls team ranks in the top 21 on Kenpom while the Golden Flashes rank 146th. Kent State is a very average team with a good offense and a bad defense beating some pretty good teams like Vanderbilt and Oregon State and overtime vs Toledo on Tuesday. Kent State is 9-7 ATS and 6-4 ATS at home. Last year Kent state won this game at home by 3 points but then lost at Buffalo later by 12 and then by 17 in the Mac tournament. If you look at the straight raw numbers Buffalo should win this game by exactly 9 points. What makes me like Buffalo here is that they are 5-3 ATS after a loss since 2017 and Kent State just played an overtime game vs Toledo which can be a bit draining. I Like how Buffalo can run up the score at the end of a game while their opponent is basically wore out.
Buffalo -8
1/27
Ball State vs Ohio +3 O/U 140
It is quite amazing to me that a team like Ohio ranking 311th in offensive efficiency home now is 10-8. I suppose that would be due to some very good defense. Well Ohio’s defense is pretty good but looking at the numbers it isn’t fantastic by any means. Ball state ranks 63rd on Kenpom at 97 points per 100 possessions in defensive efficiency but that may have to do with having a very easy schedule because they only rank 6th in the MAC conference play at 102.5. On the other hand Ball State is a very good offensive team top 72 at 109.0 adj efficiency on kenpom but only 9th in conference play at 100.8. It’s like both these teams decided to suck when they started playing other Mac teams. Maybe they just got worse because these numbers adjust for strength of opponent. Both teams are 2-4 in the Mac straight up. Ball State has had some injury woes losing Brachen Hazen and Ishmail El Amin earlier in December but now Ohio will be without a few depth positions as well. There are really 2 factors that stick out to me here. First is the trends. Ball State is a 6-2 team ATS on the road while Ohio is 3-6 at home. Its almost like these teams are much better on the road than at home. Secondly, this is a huge revenge game for Ball State getting blown out by Ohio at home 70-52 after playing a double over time game against Eastern Michigan. Ball State is the better team and should be able to cover the 3 points.
Ball State -3
Kansas vs Kentucky -5 O/U 142
Well this is certainly going to be a good game this weekend an a much watch for me. These teams are not too different from each other. Both play great defense with Kentucky rankings 10th and Kansas ranking 11th on Kenpom while Kentucky Edges out Kansas at 20th to 27th in offensive efficiency. There really isn’t a spot play here due to the fact that both of these teams won their last game and have at least 3 days rest. Kentucky is 9-9 ATS and Kansas is 8-11. Kansas is coming into this game with the hardest schedule so far in the league while Kentucky’s schedule ranks 43rd. Now if all things were held equal here I think that this should be a 3 – 4 point spread but not today. Kansas felt a huge injury earlier in January losing their big center Udoka Azubuike and I think he is worth about 3 points to this spread. Kentucky since their Duke loss the first game of the year has ripped through teams like North Carolina, Louisville, Auburn and Mississippi State. Kansas is terrible on the road and 1-3 ATS losing to Iowa State by 17 Arizona State by 4, West Virginia by 1 and barely beating Baylor, I have Kentucky winning this game 76-68.5. Get this one early.
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
We have a jam-packed show for you today! Kiev opens up the show with his big 10 rankings. Professional handicapper Doug Upstone is back! We first discuss some NFL rule changes. Second, we go into where we were right or wrong about our season predictions. Then we get into our Super Bowl thoughts on where there may be some value on the total, side and of course the prop market. Finally we discuss a few college basketball plays for the weekend and some fade teams for the future!
NCAA: Michigan vs Indiana – Buffalo vs Kent State – Ball State vs Ohio – Kansas vs Kentucky and more!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a monmth please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
So this game went to 189 last year at Carver Arena and even when Iowa didn’t show up in East Lansing earlier this year the game still went to 158. I don’t think this total is priced right with Cook back healthy and in the lineup. Since Tyler has been back the last 2 games, both went over the total. Iowa plays fast when the competition steps up and they are the 5th best in the nation at drawing fouls. I see a shootout brewing in Iowa City against the best team in the Big 10. I also lean Iowa + 5.5
Superbowl 53 – LA Rams vs New England Patriots -2 O/U 58
So running the exact raw numbers, I have the Patriots winning 24-23.5. What I am about to say I have always thought this and I still do… I may be wrong but if you score to take the lead over the Patriots and give them over 45 seconds up by 4 – 6.5 then you are dead in the water. I know its crazy to think Reid should have played to “slowly” to only score at the end but I feel that gamble is only correct playing against this dynasty of a team like the Patriots and it sure as hell didn’t help that KC’s defense is one of the worst in the entire league. Thank god they scored as well to push overtime (maybe the pats scored too quickly as well) but the coin flip obviously did KC in at the end. I think that there is value in the under in the full game and the first half under UNTIL the 4th quarter. Both of these defenses have been playing extremely well especially in the first halves of their last 8 games. Belichek will start this game off slow as usual and try establish the run. The Rams will come out most likely feeling the pressure of the huge event and try and take care of the ball especially since they had that first quarter interception last game. If you look at all playoff games in general, they trend towards the under until the 4th quarter as we saw the Patriots and Chiefs score 38 points. I am going to take UNDER 58 points with 3 units only to buy back on the over at either 1.5 Units or 3 for the second half or before the 4th quarter. Should this game be trending under until the second half, you will have a good option to double up with the hedge. I am also taking the first half UNDER 28 for 1.5 units.
A little A-10 action. I predict a Rams victory here! Ok enough with the dumb jokes. VCU comes into this game 10-7-1 ATS while Rhode Island is 7-10. Here is a schedule where both these teams are coming off 2 wins in a row and both teams played on Saturday so no spot situation. When this line opened up at at VCU -1 the numbers guys quickly put money on the home dog Rhode Island making them into a favorite. Lets get into the nuts and bolts here shall we. VCU is a top 55 team on Kenpom while Rhode island is top 118. The Rhode Island Rams best win was against West Virginia back in Mid December but haven’t beaten anybody in the top 74 this year. The other Rams played a much harder schedule beating Temple, Texas, Dayton and only losing to top 4 Virginia by 8. The true key to this game for me is that VCU has a top 5 defense in all of basketball holding teams to 42.2 effective FG percentage and number 4 against the 3. Rhode Island is a terrible shooting team ranking 286 in effective FG percentage at 47.4 and 347th in 3 point percentage. Rhode island has a half way decent defense but the kicker is that not only do they miss a lot of shots, they are also not very tall ranking 236th in height. VCU Ranks 84th in height and should be able to stop this team in the Paint. As long as VCU slows down Rhode Islands best player in Jeff Dowtin, I like VCU to win this game outright and I also like the under 136
Tonight we have the Clippers traveling to Dallas to take on the Ice cold Mavericks. Questions surround both teams, for the Clippers it’s when will they be able to get healthy and stay healthy; in Dallas we’re wondering Dennis Smith’s future with the Mavs and if its in Dallas what will it look like since the emergence of Luka Doncic. Mavericks will be on their 2nd game of a back to back. I’ve got this game more of a Pick’ em. With the Mavericks being 0-7 Straight up when they play with no rest, I don’t see them covering the 3.5, theyre much better at home but the Clippers have proven to be one of the best Western Conference teams on the road, Lou Williams is close to returning and I don’t think Dennis Smith will be much of a factor tonight. I’d even think about putting a little on the money line.
Here you have 2 teams that have both lost their last games. Rutgers lost at home to Northwestern and Nebraska lost at home to Michigan State. Now these teams face off in Jersey each with a strong motivation to win. The keys to this handicap are really 3 things. Both teams play slow and rank in the bottom 230 in pace of play. Rutgers has a top 50 defense and Nebraska has a top 25 defense. Rutgers offense is terrible ranking 231 and their top scorer Eugene Omoruyi is still out. Being that this game is in Rutgers, I do not expect Nebraska to play out of their minds. 59% of tickets on the under and 98% of the money is on the under as of this morning.
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
#NFL fans are like Chicago Cub fans and Kiev discusses why that is. We then goes into why the NFL is such a dumpster fire and some much needed rule changes. Kiev then go into our FIRST NFL play for the Superbowl! LA Rams vs New England Patriots. Lastly we give out a College Basketball free play for 1/21 in the Nebraska vs Rutgers game.
Should you need a sports-book please visit www.youwager.eu for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
So at the current numbers:Saints -3 -110 – 52% of the tickets are on the Saints but 55% of the money is on the Saints. After the Watson news the line dropped from -3.5 to -3. Slight correlation there but there are some syndicate groups that like the rams. Literally split at -3
Total 56.5: 52% of the tickets are on the over but 71% of the money is on the over. So this dropped from 57 with some groups and now is being hit on the over. Most of the sharp action is on the over. I disagree personally because of the running games of both teams. I Might be a buyer of the under if it gets up there past 57.
Kansas City -3 (-120) 57% of the tickets are on the Chiefs and 56% of the money.Very mixed but you can see that the line was brought up to -120 with sharper action earlier in the week. The books didn’t come off 3 due to Patriot money fears. Numbers say Chiefs especially Home/Road splits but History and experience favor the Patriots. I think ML is safest.
Total 56.5: 52% of the tickets is on the over but 48% of the money is on the over. Weather brought this total down to 54.5 and then the forecast became more favorable and it’s back up to 56.5. I like the under due to the cold and the fact that the wind is starting to show up. 9 MPH isn’t a lot but its not a little either.
