Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
Kiev Starts out by going over some of the key season stats that he likes to look at for filling out a bracket during tournament play. We then talk about our FREE NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET for listeners and subscribers! Then we talk about an amazing new way to bet on teams WITHOUT using spreads called fanvestwageringexchange.com. Fanvest is the stockmarket of all sports! Next Kiev goes over his Bracket and some upsets that most people would not pick. Kiev finally then gives out some FREE PICKS and leans for the play-in games!
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Saint Patrick’s day! The Big 10 Championship is here and both of these teams are finally healthy! (For the most part) Michigan State has won the last 2 games and Michigan is looking for revenge and another Big 10 Title! Looking at these 2 teams, they are pretty similar in power rating both being top 8 in the nation. Kenpom has these teams Michigan State 4 and Michigan 5. The line from a power ratings perspective should be Sparty -1 but when you look at the previous meetings, Michigan State has seemed to own this team. Michigan has been on a tear lately destroying some very poor big 10 teams and had a very easy road to the championship game due to missing Purdue. Michigan State on the other hand didn’t have it so bad either shutting down a Wisconsin team to 35% shooting. Michigan State has the best offense in the big 10 but they also have the 3rd best defense. Michigan has the 4th best offense in the big 10 and the 2nd best defense. I think that due to the fact that both of these teams had blown out so many other big 10 teams this year is the reason that their pace numbers are so low at 66 plays per game for State and 65 for the Wolverines. I expect more of a shootout mentality here especially at the end of this game. The previous games went to 138 and 147. Michigan State is hungrier due to not winning it last year and I think they once again will create match-up problems for Michigan. There is this trend that 58% of championship games hit the under. Now this is true but I think it has been way over-steamed in my opinion. This line opened up at 135 and its now down to 130.5. Going to fade that trend and see what happens I see lots of fouls and I have this game Michigan State winning 70-66. Gotta go green on St Patty’s day.
Bought the ½ point. Opened at 5.5 and got up to 6.5 and was at 7 at one book but money coming in on Wichita, rightfully so I feel, has brought this back to 6 or 6.5.
Cincinnati covered this in both meetings this season
7 points feels like a lot of points to lay on Cincinnati for me right now. Cincinnati was 6-8 ATS on the road this season. They are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 overall. They are a week off of a 16 point home loss to a really good Houston team and a 3 point road loss at UCF before that. Cincinnati shot only 34% in their 10 point home win over Wich St, however, the Shockers shot just under 27% in that game and still only lost by 10 on the road.
Well here we are in the Big East finals and my dark horse Xavier choked away their lead. Now we have a pretty good match-up here with a Seton Hall team that has been on fire lately and a Nova team with some young kids that finally have some more experience on their backs. Looking at the coaches you have to favor Jay Write here because his record and basketball style really speaks for itself. I must say that I am pretty impressed lately with Kevin Willard and how he fired this team up. The Pirates have been a very up and down team this year and if you profited off of them you must have caught them while they were hot. One thing that is for sure is that Seton Hall is very hot right now winning their last 4 games in a row and Myles Powell went off last night scoring 18 second half points. Seton hall is vulnerable to turning the ball over and hitting free throws but they play pretty fast at 70.3 possessions per game. Villanova is vulnerable to rebounding the ball but they certainly know how to shoot the 3 and when they are hot they can go on big runs. Nova plays slow but latly I am not sure if I want to get in front of either of these teams but I am certainly looking at the total here. 2 Hungry teams are playing each other for the Big East Championship and I can definitely see some points being scored here. Due to the poor over ATS records with these teams, the under has been SLAMMED here. I think it has been over-bought. Kenpom has this game to 140 with Nova by 4. Bart Torvik has it Nova by 3 going to 139. My numbers say higher and I have Nova winning 77-70 in a faster paced championship game. I tend to look at how teams shoot away when looking at these totals and Nova shoots at a higher percentage on the road at 45% than they do at home at 43%. Seton Hall shoots 44% at home and on the road. These teams by now are pretty acquainted with Madison Square Garden’s poor backdrops by now. The last time these teams played the total went to 144. Nova plays like the champions that they are and wins this game and covers the spread at the end.
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Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
March Madness is Rolling and so are we! 30-24 ATS since March 1st! 76% during March Madness 2018! We first talk a little about more NFL news with the Giants and Browns headlining the conversation. We next intrduce our FREE NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET for listeners and subscribers! Then we talk about an amazing new way to bet on teams WITHOUT using spreads called fanvestwageringexchange.com. Fanvest is the stockmarket of all sports! Kiev then gives out some FREE PICKS for Friday’s Games! Finally, Cub Fan Danny come in to break down some UFC Fight Night 147 for Saturday!
On Selection Sunday, sign up for free on fanvestwageringexchange.com to instantly receive 1000 “Fanbucks” to build the portfolio of teams you think will advance.
FREE BRACKET CHALLENGE LINK! $250 for first place, $150 for second, $50 for 3rd! Just follow the directions and retweet the podcast! Join my CBS Sports bracket group! #brackets http://theoddsbreakers.mayhem.cbssports.com/e/5c0ede013637fde946c4b1ffd8332fb423a182490c525b69357ffc328a15ff00?
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For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
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Tuesday was not great. We put a lot of eggs in one basket –
and that basket fell over. In the future, we’ll likely be trying to spread it
out a bit more.
Last night we released one in-game play that, in all
honesty, should have hit. But it didn’t. Such is life!
Chicago continues to hit the OVER. But, I’m
telling you, the team is playing differently. The D is playing differently. Don’t
be surprised if they regress back towards a 50/50 in the O/U for the rest of
the year.
New Jersey beat up on Edmonton a night after
being beat up on by Calgary in the third. Unfortunately, we were on the wrong
end of that one. The Devils are one of the more interesting “bad teams” in the
league at the moment.
Today’s Slate
Pittsburgh Penguins @
Buffalo Sabres – The Pens go to frosty upstate New York to battle the
Sabres tonight. This matchup is 3-1-1 to the OVER in the last five meetings
between the two. Casey DeSmith is expected to start for Pittsburgh, and he has
given up 19 goals in his last four starts. Prior to these previous two games,
Buffalo had hit seven goals or more in seven straight games. This should be
action packed in Buffalo. Take the OVER.
Buffalo/Pittsburgh
OVER 6.5 (+105) 2units
St. Louis Blues @
Ottawa Senators – St. Louis is one of the best road teams in the league. I
mentioned in a previous newsletter that we should be on the lookout for spots
they’re undervalued because they’re on the road. It may not seem like it, but
this one of those spots. Playing a very weak Sens team, St. Louis can feel the
pressure of the Stars two points back. The Blues post an 19-11-5 road record,
compared to the Sens, who are just 14-16-4 at home. Ottawa is only 5-7-1
against the Central, and the Blues are an amazing 9-3 against one of the most
competitive divisions in the league. Nilsson has not been exceptional for
Ottawa, to say the least, and he draws the start here. Just like a pick below,
the ML is too juiced so get the other two instead. 165 is a little more than I
like to lay with a road team, but this spot is too good.
St. Louis -1.5 (+103)
2units
St. Louis 3-Way ML (-165) 3units
Anaheim Ducks @ Arizona
Coyotes – Arizona returns home after going 1-1 on their brief road trip.
They return to Gila River Arena where, before the trip, they went 6-1 on their
longest homestand of the season. Their only loss? To the Ducks. They’re looking
for revenge and badly need to continue their winning ways. Anaheim is 2-9 in
their last 11 on the road, and look pretty pitiful, especially during their
home loss to the Kings the other night. Arizona plays a lot of one goal games,
so beware of the spread and the three-way, but pound the ML.
Arizona ML (-140) 3units
Florida Panthers @ San
Jose Sharks – The Panthers go into San Jose to face the second-best home team
in the league. The Sharks have won six in a row, and Florida has lost their
last four road games. Rookie Sam Monetmbeault is expected to start for the
Panthers. He has been great in his last two starts after allowing four goals in
his first career NHL start. But all three games were at home. This is his first
career road start, and boy did he get
a tough draw. SAP Center is an incredibly difficult place for a visiting team
to play. Florida has lost all five road games against the Pacific division this
year, including bad losses in Arizona, Edmonton, and a terrible 5-1 loss at
Rogers Arena against the Canucks. Don’t expect anything different. Just like
the Blues, the ML is too juiced, so look three-way and spread.
San Jose -1.5 (+130)
2units
San Jose 3-Way ML (-140) 3units
Bonus Pick: Take
Tampa Bay and Nashville ML parlay for 1unit at -107.
The in-game plays are starting to show profitability, so get
at it on twitter (@jksportsbets). Looking forward to the slate tonight!
After a rocky start to March we’re gaining some steam, going
10-3 in our last 13 (including in-game plays on Twitter) for a profit of over
20units. After a 4-2 day yesterday where we profited over 8units, we’re looking
for more tonight!
Chicago beat the Coyotes 7-1 last night. I
suppose the ‘Hawks realized that Arizona wouldn’t get them to hit that OVER
mark, so they did it themselves.
On that note, I’ve been interested in Arizona
this year because I’ve felt that they’re not nearly as good as their record
indicates. Look for opportunities where they’re overvalued.
Toronto continues to under impress, losing 6-2
at home to Tampa. Yes, the Lightning are great, but others have shown to be
able to get under their skin, especially at home. To be a contender, you have
to beat Tampa Bay. The Leafs never looked like they were in that game.
Today’s Slate
Dallas Stars @ Buffalo
Sabres – Yes, Buffalo is an over team. They have a 37-28-3 record this
season in O/U. But the real shocker is on the visitors. Dallas is 7-22-5 to the
UNDER this year on the road. That means they win the under just shy of 65% of
the time. To put that in perspective, it’s nearly the exact same percentage
that the ‘Hawks have hit the over this year. Bishop is in goal for the Stars
tonight, and he’s only given up one goal in his last three starts combined. Meanwhile, for the Sabres,
Carter Hutton is expected to start, and he has a nearly one goal per game better GAA at home than on the road. We
have to take the UNDER here.
Buffalo/Dallas UNDER
5.5 (-125) 3units
Boston Bruins @
Columbus Blue Jackets – If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Or in our case, if
it keeps hitting, don’t stop flooding it. I may well be on the “Fade Columbus”
train for the rest of the year. But the numbers back the theory. Tonight, the
Bruins come into Columbus, and while the Bruins haven’t been the best road team (four wins above .500), Columbus
has the third-worst home record in
the Eastern Conference, behind only Detroit and Ottawa. Ouch. Remember a play
last night with a team that was four games plus .500 on the road? The Jackets
lost last night in New York (good for us) and while the score seemed close, the
game was not. One of the more interesting aspects of this game is that, during
this season, when Columbus has lost the night before and play again the
following night they have lost three in a row of that back leg and are 1-4 on
the season. Korpisalo is starting for Columbus, and there are some interesting
facts behind his numbers. He has lost his last five games, posts his worst SV
and GAA against the Atlantic Division as any division, and posts worse stats at
home than on the road (we’ve exploited this before). And the B’s, well, they
fell to Pittsburgh in a battle on Sunday to end a six game winning streak. This
is the first meeting between these teams this year, and they’re set to meet
three times in the final 15 games. Boston has been red hot, and on two days
rest against a tired and weakened Blue Jackets team, let’s take the traditional
trifecta tonight, with a slight
modification in unit allotment.
Boston -1.5 (+245) 2units
Boston 3-Way ML (+145) 3units
Boston ML (-105) 3units
New Jersey Devils @
Calgary Flames – In a battle of (one of the) worst versus (one of the) best,
where the best gets to play at home, it makes sense to see a near 400 ML on the
Flames as favorites. We usually stay far away from games where the -1.5 sits
with juice, but the O/U looks good here. The Devils are an UNDER team, and
while Calgary was an over team for a while, they have gone under in two of the
last three and are 6-2-1 to the under in their last nine. Meanwhile, New Jersey
is 5-1-1 in their seven to the under. Meanwhile, when the total is at exactly
six, New Jersey is 6-2-1 to the under in the last nine (same as above with the
Flames) and Calgary is 3-1-1 to the under in their last five. MacKenzie
Blackwood is expected to Start for the Devils, and the 22-year old has posted
very respectable numbers in his limited starts this year, with a .932 SV and
2.23 GAA. Let’s take the UNDER here.
Calgary/New Jersey
UNDER 6 (+107) 3units
That’s all I got for now. I feel confident tonight, and there
should be some interesting in-game situations so make sure you follow on
twitter (@jksportsbets), as I often release in-game plays that have shown to be
very profitable. Let’s get at it!
Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping
Rolling right into March Madness and it is now time to break down these conference tournaments! We first talk a little about some NFL news and then get into the final Big 10 Rankings. Kiev then gets into how he likes to bet the conference tournaments and what he looks for in teams. We then talk about our conference tournament plays and values. Finally Dan Everett @dedgesportpicks comes in to break down the Big East and more!
NCAA conference tournaments: The MAC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, ACC, Big East, AAC, and A10.
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a month please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
