The Belk Bowl, Charlotte NC, South Carolina vs Virginia +5 O/U 53.5

These 2 teams are very solid teams. South Carolina was pretty disappointing coming into the season with higher hopes of being a better team in the SEC East and Virginia always flies under the radar beating teams like Duke, Miami and Ohio but they haven’t played anyone who is currently ranked. I don’t see a coaching advantage here because I like both coaches Bronco Mendenhall and Will Muschamp for what they are. South Carolina will be without their STUD receiver Deebo Samuel due to the NFL draft and Virginia may not have anyone that will be going to the NFL draft. Having said that I do believe that South Carolina plays in a harder conference and has some more impressive numbers. The Gamecocks have played 6 ranked teams, beat Missouri and should have beaten Texas A&M. I also like how they were able to put 35 points on the Clemson scoreboard. The Cavaliers are a run first team with a very average passing game. They key stat for me here is South Carolina’s strong 8.2 passing yards per attempt and having a 1/2 yard per play advantage of offense over Virginia.
I also like how Jake Bentley should be motivated here to A) Go to the Pros or B) Hold off 4 star recruit Ryan Hilinski from taking his job. Both teams average about the same on the ground at 4.6 yards per rush and both give up about 4.5. This game will go like the NC State vs Virginia game earlier in the year. If the weather holds up I like the Gamecocks here to cover!

South Carolina – 5

The Arizona Bowl, Tucson Arizona – Arkansas State vs Nevada +1.5 O/U 57.5

Can we forget that Nevada lost to UNLV their final game of the season? Well if you like Nevada then you should forget that because it really was a meaningless game for them anyways. We have 2 middle of the pack group of 5 schools playing for pride. Arkansas State finished better but Nevada has the better defense only allowing 5.3 yards per play to 5.7. Both teams are 6.2 yards per play and play but Nevada played a tougher schedule beating teams like Air Force and San Diego State while Arkansas State hasn’t beaten anybody. This is also more of a home game atmosphere for the Wolfpack being that Nevada is west coast. Blake Anderson is also only 1-3 ATS in bowl games so I am going to have to play Nevada on the Money Line and lean over 57.5. Play this one early because lots of local money in Vegas will drive this line up. If you like the Red Wolves then wait till the end.

Nevada ML and lean over 57.5

The Peach Bowl, Atlanta Georgia – Michigan vs Florida +6.5 O/U 51

Michigan will be without DT Rashan Gary and LB Devin Bush, Karon Higdon but I would think their second string is pretty darn good by now. Both teams are equal on yards per play on offense at 6.2 but Michigan is much better on Defense yards per play allowing 4.3 to Florida’s 5.1. Michigan was embarrassed the last game that they played as well as last year’s bowl game and that could motivate this team.     Felipe Franks played some good football this year at 23-5 TD to interception ratio completing 58% of his passes. Shea Patterson for the Wolverines completed 64% of his passes at a 21-5 TD to interception ratio. Most Power ratings has Michigan by 8.5 points. Michigan was the only big 10 team to lose last year and I think they need to prove they can get it done.

Michigan -6 to -6.5

The Cotton Bowl, Arlington Texas – Clemson vs Notre Dame +13 O/U 55.

I look at Notre Dame as the ACC team that didn’t have to play Clemson or NC State for that fact. Both teams had easy schedules but that doesn’t not make Clemson a top 2 team. Clemson leads the League in second half points. From a pure numbers and algorithm standpoint, I have Clemson winning  28-22 but that doesn’t factor in the many times the Tigers could have run up the score. From a power ratings I have Clemson by 12. Clemson is weaker against the pass as we saw against Texas A&M, Syracuse and NC State put up 35 points. Notre Dame is a good passing team with Ian Book at the helm. I think Notre Dame will scheme in the first half well enough to cover and I think Clemson pulls away in the second half of the game.

Notre Dame first half +7 and Clemson second half -?

The Orange Bowl, Miami Florida – Alabama vs Oklahoma +14 O/U 77.

Oklahoma’s defense Ranks 95th in points allowed at 32.5 and 102nd in yards per play at 6.0.   Alabama is top 7 in both categories allowing only 14.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. Oklahoma’s offense ranks first in points per game at 49.5 and yards per play at 8.7, but Alabama ranks second in both of those areas  48 points per game and 7.9 yards per play in a much tougher division but easier non conference schedule.   A big factor in this game is how tight will this game be called by the officials.  Oh, by the way, I just saw that Oklahoma star WR Marquise Brown will be attempting to play in this game so there’s that but that doesn’t mean he still won’t be hobbled and maybe ineffective.  I could see this game being close or I can see Alabama blowing them out. I think Saben will look to the Oklahoma vs Army game here and play keep away.

Under 77 points and especially if Bama is leading at the half by double digits.  

If game is single digits at half time then take the second half over.

He is one of the most well known sports bettors and handicappers in the business.  You see him sharing his plunder of winners every Saturday on during the football season on ESPN’s College Gameday.   You can follow him on twitter @chrisfallica

The Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit MI – Minnesota vs Georgia Tech -6 O/U 60

• I took a nibble on Minnesota when this got to +6.5
• The Gophers will be without their star Offensive Tackle Donnell Green and Linebacker Rodney Smith due to NFL draft hold out.
• Minnesota had a pretty hard schedule but finished the season very well winning 3 of their last 5 big 10 games against Indiana, Purdue and Wisconsin. They also played well against Northwestern if it wasn’t for those 3 turnovers, it may have been a different game.
• Both teams give up 6 yards per play but Minnesota had the harder schedule
• Minnesota had 3 weeks to practice for the option
• I tend to think from the eye test that Minnesota is more vulnerable to the pass than the run.
• Is Paul Johnson’s departure a good thing for this bowl or could it be a bad thing?

Kiev: Gophers +6.5 or +6

Chris:  No Play

The Pinstripe Bowl, New York, NY – Wisconsin vs Miami -3.0 O/U 48

• Very disappointing teams
• Horibrook out
• Jack Cohen from New York
• Wisconsin beat this team last year with pretty much the same offense
• Miami only allows 4.2 Yards per play to Wisconsin’s 5.6
• Wisconsin gets 6.3 yards per play over Miami’s 5.2
• Wisconsin is banged up on defense with Freshman on the D line and no Olive Sagapolu at Nose Tackle
• Miami’s defense average’s 5.5 yards per attempt against the pass but they haven’t really played a good passing team since week 1 against LSU
• Wisconsin had the harder schedule.
• If Wisconsin is going to win, it won’t be done running the football, it will have to be through the air with Hornibrook
• Miami wins by 2 in a revenge spot

Kiev:  Lean to Wisconsin +3.5 small

Chris:  Lean to Wisconsin +3.5

The Peach Bowl, Atlanta Georgia – Michigan vs Florida +7.5 O/U 51

• Michigan will be without DT Rashan Gary and LB Devin Bush, Karon Higdon
• Both teams equal on yards per play on offense at 6.2
• Michigan much better on Defense yards per play allowing 4.3 to Florida’s 5.1
• Michigan was embarrassed the last game that they played.   Something should get fixed.
• Felipe Franks played some good football this year at 23-5 TD to interception ratio completing 58% of his passes
• Shea Patterson completed 64% of his passes at a 21-5 TD to interception ratio
• Most Power ratings has Michigan by 8.5 points.
• Michigan was the only big 10 team to lose last year and I think they need to prove they can get it done

Kiev:  Michigan -6 to -6.5

Chris:  Florida +7.5

The Outback Bowl, Tampa Florida – Mississippi State vs Iowa +7 O/U 44

• Dual Action sharp and public on Mississippi State bringing this spread from -5 to -7
• Iowa is without their TE Noah Fant cause he is holding out for the draft.   They also have had some banged up TEs this year but I would be hard pressed to think that their isn’t another 6’7 corn fed Hawkeye kid that that catch the ball and run a little bit in this state.
• Both these teams are better than what they showed during the regular season.   No huge wins and had opportunities but fizzed out at the end.
• Both teams have top 6 defenses both allowing less than 300 yards per game with mediocre offenses
• Both teams had hard schedules
• Kirk Ferentz had more experience then Joe Moorhead
• Ran the numbers and I have Mississippi state winning 23 to 20.5 so this is a play for me.
• This low total tells me how to bet this game

Kiev:  Iowa +7 and ML

Chris:  Mississippi State -7

The Alamo Bowl, San Antonio TX – Iowa State vs Washington State -3.5 O/U 55

• Remember the Alamo?   Well I don’t remember the Alamo, but I do remember that bad beat in the Alamo Bowl in 2016 when TCU was down 31-0 at halftime when Gary Patterson Changed his cloths and came back to win the game 47-41 without QB Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson.
• Mike Leach is 1-7 in bowl games while Matt Campbell is 2-2 since 2005
• Low total of 55 for a Washington State team
• Iowa State is used to playing high flying offenses in the big 12 like Oklahoma, West Virginia who they beat and Texas Tech who they beat straight up
• Having a defense allowing 5.1 yards per play is unheard of in the Big 12
• The Sharp money agrees with me.

Kiev:  Iowa State +4.5 and the Money Line

Chris:  Iowa State +4.5 and the Money Line

The Taxslayer Bowl, Jacksonville Florida – Texas A&M vs NC State +6.5 O/U 58.5

• These Teams seem pretty similar here too me
• Both teams won their last 3 games
• Both teams like to throw the ball
• Both teams around 6.2 yards per play
• NC State gives up 5.7 yards per play and Texas A&M gives up 5.9
• The Aggies Run the ball better at 4.9 yards per rush to the Wolfpack’s 3.9
• Jimbo Fisher is 5-3 ATS in bowl games while Dave Doeren is 4-1
• Texas A & M had a way harder schedule then NC State ranking 4th on Sagarin to NC State’s 69
• My algorithm has this game closer to a pickem even after adjusting for strength of schedule
• Texas A&M lacks some important efficiencies
• NC State is better on 3rd down at 50% to the Aggie’s 40%
• NC State is 87% at field goal percentage to A&M’s 70%
• I have Texas A&M winning 29.5-28.5

Kiev:  Lean NC State +6.5 or small at +7.5

Chris:  No Play 

The Sugar Bowl, New Orleans LA – Texas vs Georgia -13 O/U 58

• We all know who Georgia is
• I have them one of the best 4 teams in college football
• What is Georgia’s motivation?
• Most Power ratings has Georgia by 11 to 14 points
• Sam Ellinger is a winner
• Texas plays up or down to their competition
• I have this game Georgia 35-23 but no lean on the side due to motivational questions

Kiev:  Lean over 58

Chris:  Wait to see Georgia’s motivation and live bet

The Fiesta bowl, Glendale Arizona – UCF vs LSU -7.5 O/U 55.5

• Too hard to cap this especially with McKenzie Milton out for Central Florida
• One would think that LSU should be able to just run the ball year with UCF allowing 4.8 Yards per rush on defense in the AAC
• What is LSU’s Motivation here?   Do they want to stop the narrative that UCF should be in the playoffs?

Kiev:  NO PLAY as of yet

Chris:  LSU -7.5

The Cotton Bowl, Arlington Texas – Clemson vs Notre Dame +13 O/U 55

• I look at Notre Dame as the ACC team that didn’t have to play Clemson or NC State for that fact
• Both teams had easy schedules
• Clemson leads the League in second half points
• From a pure numbers and algorithm standpoint, I have Clemson winning  28-22
• From a power ratings I have Clemson by 12
• Clemson is weaker against the pass as we saw against Texas A&M, Syracuse and NC State put up 35 points
• Notre Dame is a good passing team with Ian Book at the helm

Kiev:  Going to bet this game like I bet the Penn State/Ohio State games.  Taking Notre Dame in the First Half and Clemson in the Second

Chris:  Clemson -13

The Orange Bowl, Miami Florida – Alabama vs Oklahoma +14 O/U 79.5

• Oklahoma’s defense Ranks 95th in points allowed at 32.5 and 102 in yards per play at 6.0.   Alabama is top 7 in both categories allowing only 14.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play
• Oklahoma’s offense ranks first in points per game at 49.5 and yards per play at 8.7 but Alabama ranks second in both of those areas  48 points per game and 7.9 yards per play in a much tougher division but easier non conference schedule.
• A big factor in this game is how tight will this game be called by the officials.   I could see this game being close or I can see Alabama blowing them out.
• I think Saben will look to the Oklahoma vs Army game here and play keep away.

Kiev:  Under 79.5 points and especially if Bama is leading at the half by double digits

Chris:   Alabama -13

December 26th 2018

The First Responder Bowl, Dallas Texas – Boston College vs Boise State -2.5 O/U 55.5

Boston College was one of those hopeful teams to beat Clemson this year and after that game, they had a terrible finish losing at Florida State as well as Syracuse by double digits.  On the other hand, this team is very healthy compared to Boise State who is down some defensive backs and wide receivers hence the line move past the 3.   Power ratings have Boise state by 3 points here.  Being that these teams are from some very different conferences in different sides of the country, I think it is pointless to run an algorithm.   What I do see is that Boise State relies much more on the pass than BC and with injured wide receivers, that doesn’t bode well.   I also see BC having a better defense allowing only 5.2 yards per play in a harder division to Boise State’s 5.6.   I think the eagles should run all over this team and lean BC +2.5 and under 55.5

Lean Boston College +2.5 and under 55.5

The Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit MI – Minnesota vs Georgia Tech -6 O/U 60

Lots of motivating factors here.   It is Coach Paul Johnson’s last game at Georgia Tech and the kids may want to send him out with a bang.    On the other hand it is Coach PJ Fleck’s first bowl game as a Golden Gopher and they want to establish momentum for next season.   The Gophers will be without their star Offensive Tackle Donnell Green and Linebacker Rodney Smith due to NFL draft hold out. Minnesota had a pretty hard schedule but finished the season very well winning 3 of their last 5 big 10 games against Indiana, Purdue and Wisconsin. They also played well against Northwestern if it wasn’t for those 3 turnovers, it may have been a different game.   Georgia Tech also had a strong finish winning 4 of their last 5 games.   The Yellow Jackets are an option team that will  pound the ball hard against the Gophers making them difficult to stop, but lately, Minnesota has been stopping the run well as we saw against Wisconsin.   Both teams give up almost 6 yards per play on defense and Minnesota has had the harder schedule.   Basically both defenses are not good here.   If the Gophers can play the way that they did against Wisconsin, then I think they have a shot at not only covering this spread, but also winning this one.

Minnesota small +6.5

Cheez-it Bowl, Phoenix AZ – Cal vs TCU PK O/U 38

Well this is a pretty cheesy name for a bowl game and looking at these offenses, this bowl name pretty much fits the bill.  This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix Arizona.   The line here is telling you that we have 2 solid defenses playing some terrible offenses here.  This Justin Wilcox led Cal Bears team has had some great wins against teams like Washington and USC but also some bad losses against UCLA and Arizona.   Both Defenses allow 4.9 or less yards per play with the harder schedule Edge to TCU.   Neither offense averages over 5.4 yards per play.  Coach Gary Patterson has a good bowl record at 9-3 since 2005 but is only 5-7 ATS.   I see both teams being motivated here but it all has to do with the injury report to me.  If Darius Anderson RB and Backup QB Michael Collins can’t play this game for TCU due to injuries, then I will play Cal.   If one of them is in, it’s a Pick-em.  If Both players are in the play shifts to TCU.   Nothing big of course

Wait for injury report. 

December 27th 2018

The Walk-On Independence Bowl, Schreveport Louisiana – Duke vs Temple -4.5 O/U 55

Duke is a funny team.   You hate them in basketball and love them in football.   Man was this Duke team good in the beginning of the season.  They rolled through there non-conference beating teams like Northwestern, Baylor and Army.   The team then experienced some bad luck losing their stud corner back Gilbert and RB Marvin Hubbard early in the year.   They also lost QB Daniel Jones for a little while during the beginning of that stretch having some losses to Virginia Tech and Pitt.  This spread has went up a bit in Temple’s favor due to Duke’s Terrible recent loss against Wake Forest at the very end of the season but I am going to cross that game off and forget about it due to the fact that the Blue Devils just got done playing Clemson and had no motivation to try.   Temple on the other hand started bad and then played great this year winning 6 of their last 7 games.   The Owls haven’t really stepped up well against the ranked teams and had a pretty easy schedule.   Another issue for the Owls is that their coach Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech and will not be coaching the Bowl Game leaving it in the hands of interim Ed Foley.   This coach thing happens all the time for this team. Temple is like a power 5 coach manufacturing plant.  David Cutcliff on the other hand for the Blue Devils is 4-1 ATS in bowl games.  Power ratings has Temple by 3 but due to the coaching advantage here I will be playing Duke +4.5

Duke +4.5

The Pinstripe Bowl, New York, NY – Wisconsin vs Miami -3.5 O/U 48

We have a rematch from last years Orange Bowl with 2 very disappointing teams.  The Wisconsin Badgers returned everyone on offense last year minus their Tight End Troy Fumagale and yet was completely flat and very disappointing.    They did not live up to their pre-season ranks and quickly became one dimensional and forgot how to pass the ball early on.  Now that their QB Alex Hornibrook is injured, backup Jack Coan from New York will be playing in his home State. Miami has been pretty bad themselves with a QB controversy all year but they at last still have a top 10 defense and can stop the Run.   This game will be won on the ground.  It’s Wisconsin’s run offense vs Miami’s run defense.  I actually think that the fact that Wisconsin lost their defensive run stopper in Olive Sagapolu this year, they might not be able to stop the Hurricane’s rushing offense.   Miami really has’t faced a good passing team this year so it is hard to gauge where they really are at and if that great 5.5 passing yards per attempt passing defense is real, then it could be a long day for the Badgers.   If Wisconsin is going to win this game it will have to be Jack Coan leading the way and so far he hasn’t looked too good.  I do not like how Wisconsin finished the season this year but I do like the fact that they are a dog here against a team that they know that they can beat.   Miami may be in a revenge spot but I do not think they win by over 3

Small Lean to Wisconsin +3.5

The Outdoors Texas Bowl, Houston Tx – Vanderbilt vs Baylor +4.5 O/U 55

Gonna keep this one short and sweet.    This is pretty much a home game for Baylor only 181 miles from Houston hence the line move from +7 to +4.5. You have 2 offenses that are a little above average in yards per play and points per game around 5.9 yards per play for Baylor and 6.1 for the Commodores and 2 defenses that are below average at 5.9 for Vanderbilt at 6.4 for Baylor going against each other.   Vandy finished the season strong averaging 37 points per game their last 4.   Now they play a fast paced Baylor team that can put up some yards and some points themselves.   The key here is that Baylor plays fast averaging 80 plays per game.   That is top 7 in the country.   Being that this game is like playing at home for Baylor, I think that they control the pace in this game and the fact that it is on Turf makes me love this play even more.  I am taking the OVER 55 points here and it is one of my favorite plays.

Baylor over 55

December 28th

The Music City Bowl, Nashville TN – Purdue vs Auburn -3.5 O/U 54.5

Well Purdue certainly had a solid year.   Did they lose to the Gophers?  Yes.  Did they lose to Wisconsin?   Yes.   But the fact that they beat Ohio State by 29 and made a bowl game is huge.   Now they get to play an SEC team that was more of a disappointment to their fan base and was embarrassed last year vs Central Florida.  After the Tigers beat Washington early in the season pretty much at home, they only were able to beat 1 additional ranked team in Texas A & M this year and it took their final drive of that game.   Purdue started their season out very bad and then became kind of a tough out for some teams.   Lets look at the intangibles.   Both teams are about 300 miles away from Nashville.  Gus Malzahn of Auburn is 2-3 against the spread in bowl games while Jeff Brohm is 3-1.   I look at Auburn as a team with kind of a bad offense with a very good defensive front but teams that can pass the ball are the ones that become their Kryptonite.  This Auburn team is similar to a Michigan State in my opinion.   Being that these teams are both in the 2 best conferences I ran my algorithm and have Auburn winning 26.5 to 25.5 so the only play for me would be the Boilermakers +3.5 along with the sharps.   

Lean Purdue +3.5

The Camping World Bowl, Orlando FL – West Virginia vs Syracuse +1 O/U 67

As soon as this Will Grier announced he isn’t playing in the bowl game due to holding out for the NFL draft, this line fell like London Bridge.  The under dropped 7 points as well.   Did the spread fall far enough is the question.   
Most power ratings have the Mountaineers 7 points better than the Orangemen.    West Virginia was favored by 7 points coming into this game and we do not know much about backup Jack Allison except that he has had time to practice.   The worst part for this new QB is that his best O lineman Yodny Cajuste will also be sitting out.   Both of these teams are similar on defense allowing 5.84 yards per play.   I personally think that Will Grier along with his best tackle is worth more than 7 points to the line and maybe even into the double digits.   I also think Will Grier sent a message to the rest of his team by not playing this game.   Syracuse is hungry for a bowl win after some losing seasons.    Get this thing quick because this line will keep going in the wrong direction.

Syracuse +1 or ML +105

The Alamo Bowl, San Antonio TX – Iowa State vs Washington State -3.5 O/U 55

This total in a Washington state game at 55 pretty much tells you everything you need to know about this one.   We got this game early at +6.5 and it went down pretty quickly.   Washington State was the best team ATS this year at 10-2, but the only problem with trends here is that Mike Leach is a terrible 1-7 ATS in bowl games which is the worst of all coaches.   Matt Campbell is 2-2.  Both of these teams are bad at running the ball but pretty solid on defense.   More importantly, I think that there is no team better suited to beat this Washington State team than this Cyclones team and the 4 teams of course in the playoffs.   Iowa State has the best defense in the high flying big 12 beating teams like West Virginia, Baylor, and Texas Tech.  Iowa State had a slow start when their QB Brock Purdy was injured vs Iowa but after mid season, they started ripping out teams winning 7 of their last 8 games.   The Cougars have a very good offense as we have seen and they play fast but the fact that Iowa State sees this in the Big 12 and their D averages a great 5 yards per play against these opponents tells me they can and will beat this Washington State team.   The lower total (for these teams) of 55 pretty much tells me there will be a cap on scoring.

Iowa State +3.5 and ML