College Football

Pick: Army -6/Lean (Bought 1/2 pt)

I like Army today with their ability to run the ball against Houston’s defense that has allowed over 900 rushing yards the last 3 games combined with an Army defense that plays well vs run and pass.  

Army’s defense is #9 in the nation.  This team has played very well on the road after an opening loss to Duke.  Army has blowout road wins at Buffalo, San Jose St and Eastern Michigan, winning those games by a combined 93 points  They took Oklahoma to overtime in Norman, losing 28-21 and holding the Sooners under 200 passing yards.

Army allows 15 first downs per game while Houston is allowing 25 first downs per game.

With the injury to QB King, Houston has had to rely on freshman QB Tune who is completing just 44.7 % of his passes despite a 7/2 TD/INT ratio.  He has 565 yards passing in 4 games.

Edge/Angle

HOU 2-4 ATS on road

Army 3-1 ATS on road

HOU #98 rush defense, Army #2 rush offense

HOU #125 total defense

The Birmingham Bowl, Birmingham Alabama – Memphis vs Wake Forest +3.5 O/U 73

What can you say about Memphis?   This team had ample opportunity to beat their rival UCF leading in both games that they played them and then choked the game away in the 4th quarter.   Now this team slightly steps up in class to play a Wake Forest team who somehow beat NC State and Duke in their last 3 games to make a bowl.   Wake Forest’s weakness is against the run allowing 4.85 yards per rush and being average at best in the rushing and passing game.   The Tigers are actually great at rushing the ball at 6.6 yards per run but they also played a much more inferior schedule to the Demon Deacons.   Memphis is a top 4 team in yards per play at 7.4 but they give up a healthy 6 on defense.   Now I would factor the stats in more if Wake Forest didn’t play a MUCH harder schedule than Memphis playing teams like Clemson, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Duke.  Wake forest plays very fast at 84 plays per game but they are not very efficient on 3rd down.   Memphis plays fast against good teams and I think they may force Wake into a one dimensional type shootout here.   Dusting off the trusty old Algorithm I have this total up to 76

Lean Over 73

The Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth Texas – Houston vs Army – 3 O/U 61

There isn’t a more perfect bowl bowl game for Army than this one of course.   They should definitely get some fans there.   On the other hand, the fact that this bowl is in Texas 262 miles from Houston, I think you may see some Houston fans as well.   Now Houston was a great team again this year and their coach Major Applewhite (another thing that fits this game) has done a fantastic job beating teams like Arizona and South Florida but the important thing to me is that we can’t forget the downgrade that we have to assign this Houston when they lost their QB D’Erik King.   The final score of their Memphis game was a bit misleading due to a pick 6.   I do like Houston’s interim QB Clayton Tune but now he will be facing a much more disciplined defense in Army who only allows 18 points per game, 4 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per play.   Now we know that Houston plays fast and all but Army runs the ball hard and should be able to run the clock, control time of possession and pound pound pound.    Now I really do not care in this game as much what Houston does against the pass but I do know that their defense averages a decent 4.25 yards against each rush.   I think Houston should be able to stack this box a bit and force Army on some 3 and outs.   I don’t really like a side in this game due to the QB issues with Houston, but I do like the fact that this total seems to be a tad bit too high facing an option team.

Houston under 61

The Dollar General Bowl, Mobile Alabama – Buffalo vs Troy +2

Do you know what the drive is from Troy Alabama to Mobile Alabama?   3 hours and 1 minute with approximately $12 to $13 spent on gas.   I don’t think we need to discuss how far Buffalo is.   Troy is a very solid team getting 5.9 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5 on defense.   Troy is very good against the run beating teams like Georgia Southern, Louisiana and Nebraska early in the year.   They overall had a pretty easy schedule only losing to Boise State early, Liberty and Appalachian State.   Buffalo on the other hand is a similar team who gets about 5.8 yards per play and gives up 5.2.  I think when you look at skill positions and QB you have to give it up to the Bulls with Tyree Jackson at the helm throwing to Anthony Johnson.   Both guys will be in the NFL and this is their final audition.    The Trojans on the other hand actually lost their starting Quarterback Kaleb Barker on October 6th and since has used a lesser Sawyer Smith starting and not looking quite as good.   Troy has made many bowl games and this really isn’t anything new for them.   Not much of a reward if you ask me playing another group of 5 school in your home state.   Buffalo on the other hand should be very motivated having their first bowl game in many years and has NEVER won a bowl game.   The Bulls have some unfinished business from that Mac loss to Northern Illinois.   I also like the fact that Buffalo will be playing on field turf and it should help their speed.   The key handicap here is motivation vs home field advantage and I have to go with the Bulls -2.

Buffalo -2 and lean the over 51.5   

Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu Hawaii – LA Tech vs Hawaii PK O/U 60

Not going to lie to you here.  There is no teams in these bowl games that I know less about this year.   Both teams areabout 6-6 ATS.  It is also very hard to gauge motivation here.   You have Hawaii that is kinda punished by getting a bowl game at home yet it is there home field advantage and you have some kids from Louisiana who get a free trip to Hawaii.   I know that the Rainbow Warriors have the better offense and the Bulldogs have the better defense.   Both teams pass more than 50% of the time.   Both teams are relatively healthy.   Hawaii had the slightly harder schedule.  I ran the numbers and have this game La Tech 28 and Hawaii 27.   In this instance the only thing that I can lean towards is the under 60 for now.    

Lean Under 60

Dec 18th. The Boca Raton Bowl, UAB vs Northern Illinois +2.5 O/U 43

Well I must say if you asked which 2 teams are the most similar this year you might say Northern Illinois and UAB.   Both teams pound the ball a lot and have very good defenses.   Neither team can throw the ball all that well but Northern Illinois has a knack for comebacks at the end.    Now the Huskies won a lot of games for only having 4.6 yards per play but they had a much harder schedule than the Blazers who averages 5.6 yards per play.   Both Defenses allow about 4.7 ish yards per play.   NIUs schedule ranks 73 in the nation and UAB ranks 131.   Being that this total is 43.5 points you can tell that this will really be a slow and boring kind of game.   I have to lean NIU here at +2.5 because they have been to bowl games before and haven’t won in a while, but at the same time UAB may be motivated to win this one being that they didn’t even have a football team 3 years ago.

Lean NIU +2.5 and lean under 43

Dec 19th. The Frisco Bowl, Frisco Texas – San Diego State vs Ohio -3 O/U 54

Looking at these 2 teams you can easily see that they both finished completely opposite of each other.   Ohio since losing to Northern Illinois ripped off 5 wins out of their last 6 games beating teams like Buffalo, Akron and Western Michigan by large Margins.   San Diego State on the other hand has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams like UNLV, Hawaii and Nevada.   Now the Aztecs are a lot like Northern Illinois.   They have a great defense with a slight weakness against the run and a boring offense averaging just 5.5 yards per play and giving up 5 on D.   Ohio Has a great offense averaging 7 yards per play and giving up 6.2.   So why the low spread here?   It’s because San Diego State has better wins against teams like ASU, Eastern Michigan, Boise State and Air Force.   If San Diego State can run this ball then they control the game clock here making it tough on Ohio to control this game.   My algorithm has Ohio by 7.5 with the total at 55 here but I do not want to take this side if the Aztecs can pound the ball well against this poor Ohio defense.   This game has Live Betting written all over it.   See if San Diego State can establish the run and go ahead and bet from the side there.  

Lean Ohio -3  

Dec 20th.  The Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa Bay Florida – Marshall vs South Florida +2.5 O/U 55.5

Now this bowl should be called the “unfair” bowl similar to Wisconsin vs Miami of last year.   I am not sure why the bowl committee does this but it is what it is.   South Florida gets to play their bowl game at home in their own stadium while Marshall will have to hope that some of their fans will show up having to travel about 900 miles away.   Now I would call Marshall a “solid” to  better than average team on both sides of the ball at 5.5 yards per play and allowing 4.75.   4.4 yards per rush is pretty good as well.   South Florida on the other hand has a better offense at 6 yards per play but they give up 5.75.   The Bulls are a running team at 5 yards per carry but it plays into Marshall’s strength allowing only 2.9 yards per run which is top 5 in the nation.   S Florida played the easier part of their schedule in the beginning racking up 7 wins in a row but then when the competition got better they lost 5 games in a row and none of them were even close.    I am going to handicap this game based on complete stats with USF home field.   My numbers are Marshall 28 to USF 26.5.   Being that the spread is -2.5 at a total of 55.5  I really have no play in this game and lean to the under.

Lean under 55.5

Dec 21st. The Bahamas Bowl, Nassau Bahamas – Florida International vs Toledo -5.5 O/U 68.5

I have to admit that I took this one earlier at +6.   This is one of those spots where you try and guess motivation.    Now I know it is hard to guess that but let’s take a shot.   Toledo worked hard achieving this bowl game and they really deserved it.   As a matter of fact they haven’t missed a bowl game since 2009.   FIU on the other hand made their first bowl game in a long time last year and are still waiting on winning one.   Now FIU is a good rushing and passing team and they only struggle against the run allowing 4.9 yards per rush.   The Rocket’s on the other hand are very good running the ball and stopping the pass but they are also a little suspect against the run allowing 4.6 yards per rush.   There is a reason why Toledo is favored here and that is they are a Mac team who runs the ball better and stops the run more adequately.   The true question to me is will they actually be motivated in this bowl game?   Due to the fact that FIU’s defense is slightly better as well as in yards per point on both sides of the ball, my algorithm has this much closer to a pick-em with a slight advantage to the Panthers.   Plus you certainly can’t hate the fact that FIU is a second best 9-2 ATS.   I have to believe that these Ohio kids from up north in the cold do not have a ton of opportunities to be on the beach while FIU lives on the beach and is dying to win this game. FIU is all business here while Toledo will be partying under the palm trees. 

FIU +5.5 and ML Sprinkle lean under 68.5

Dec 21st The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise Idaho Smurf Turf – Western Michigan vs BYU -12 O/U 48.5

Both of these teams really deserve each other.   Western Michigan is probably the worst Bowl team out there this year while BYU lied to all of us and pretended to be good by beating Wisconsin and  Arizona, then to get destroyed by Washington and Utah State.   I bet these Cougers have cost people some good money this year and therefore deserve to have to play in Boise Idaho with uncle Rico on the sidelines watching.   The Broncos went 4-8 ATS this year and very much downhill since they lost PJ Fleck to Minnesota.   They also deserve this bowl.   I am going to keep this disgusting game short and sweet.  BYU is going to run all over this team and control the ball.   The Cougars can stop the run allowing only 3.7 yards per rush and played a much harder schedule.   Sharp money hit BYU early and now there is no more value for me in this game.    I do think the back door will be wide open here so I lean Western Michigan +12 and Lean the under 48.5

Lean W Michigan +12 and Small lean to the under 48.5