NCAA Conference Tournament Futures

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 12, 2019

What I look for when betting tournament teams:

Great defense because it travels.

Shooting percentage away from home.

ATS away from home.

Did you finish the season well? Is the team hot or not? Is there a reason why you are not and you have value?

More value on Bubble teams to win (not necessarily against the spread) .

Teams with great NBA type players.

The Big East

To me the Big east is the most up in the air conference. Marquette and Nova are the only for sure teams in the NCAA tournament while Seton Hall and Creighton might have some slight work to do. The problem with Marquette and Nova is that they have really come down to earth and have had a terrible finish to their season losing most of their games the last 3 week. Looking at the odds, I think this may be the most wide open tournament as far as what could happen. Due to the even teams, I think the value is on the Hottest team with the best odds which is Xavier at+ 900 or 9-1. Now you can argue that a money line rollover is better than 9-1 but that is ONLY if they play both Nova and Marquette on the bottom. At that case a money line rollover is worth about 15-1. If Nova loses to Providence or Butler than the ML rollover is worth a MAX 9-1 if they play Marquette at the championship level and even less if not. Another option that I may employ is doing a Money Line rollover for Marquette on the bottom while playing Xavier 9-1 on top.

Xavier 9-1 and Marquette ML rollover

The American Athletic Conference

Houston is going to win this but definitely not worth the +125. The team that I really do not like is Cincinnati at +250. They have not finished well and are in the big dance anyways. If you want to get cute, you could also bet Temple at +725 or Wichita State at +1700 being that they won’t have to play Houston until that final game but if you do this you may have to go harder on the ML rollover with Houston. I would favor the Wichita State line personally, but they have a tough road.

Houston ML rollover and small on Wichita State

ACC Tournament

Not enough info here for me. North Carolina is probably my favorite team here but certainly not at +350. If Zion is in they will be dogs against Duke and also against Virginia at the end meaning you could get more like an 9.5-1 value on the ML rollover and if Zion is out and Duke is more of a pickem game then you can still get about 5-1 worst case. Duke is now also without Marquis Bolden so there is now even more problems there. Bolden was their Center and very important to stop the inside game. Not a ton of room to hedge that +350 either against Virginia. Virginia +125 makes no sense when Duke is still the favorite to win the NCAA championship? What does that tell you? Does duke not care about the ACC tournament? Do the odds makers think the officials will favor Duke again like in 2015? Who knows but the only potential play is UNC ML rollover or pass.

UNC ML Rollover

The Pac 12 Tournament

Here is a league that has been a huge disappointment in basketball and really all major sports the last few years. The odds to win this ugly ass tournament are absolutely terrible. You have the conference’s top team in Washington that everyone had penciled in as an at large a few weeks back is now a bubble team with no guarantees of tournament birth. The Pac 12 may only have 1 team in the big dance!!! The motivation should be high for all teams here but the odds do not match up. Colorado may be the hottest team but they are only a 5 seed meaning they have to start on Wednesday. The Buffalos are also in the same side of the bracket as Washington and they only have 6-1 odds to win it all. Garbage. The second hottest team is Oregon winning their last 4 games in a row and even though they are away from Washington in this bracket, they still only have +300 or 3-1 to win this thing and they also start on Wednesday. The only semblance of value that I can find is Utah being at 12-1 here because the are the 4 seed who would start Thursday and they finished off the season well at home. Utah also has the best away ATS record at 7-4 but can you really trust this team who has the worst D in the pac 12? The problem is that they will not be favored in any of their games so they could get 15-1 or 18-1 on a ML rollover. This tournament looks ugly to me and I think if you want to do anything, it would be Washington ML rollover or nothing. Maybe the fact that Washington is now a bubble team could help motivate them.

Washington ML rollover and maybe a smaller ML rollover on Utah with a spread bet to cover it.

The Big 12 Tournament

Ok, so this conference is an absolute mess. You have a clear favorite in Texas Tech at +130. I agree with the fact that they should be favorites but I do not agree with the line. Kansas State is next at +350 but how confident can you be with that number? The big problem with the Big 12 is that you have 4 bubble teams that need these wins much more than the 2 favorites. Oklahoma, TCU, Baylor and Texas all need runs here which makes them very dangerous. We also have to look at the best offense in this division in Iowa state as only a 5 seed because they have a decent shot at winning it. The biggest question to me is if Kansas is going to show up? Will not winning the regular season for the first time in 14 years motivate this team? I think there is way to many unpredictable outcomes here and the best thing to do is stay away. Maybe bet the bubble teams and or Kansas.

Stay Away

The SEC Tournament

It’s pretty crazy seeing everything that happened to LSU with Will Wade being suspended indefinitely. They are the top seed in this tournament and have by far the easiest bracket. It is also weird seeing South Carolina getting the 4 seed and the double bye over Auburn. I do not think even with coach Franks that the gamecocks can make it past this Auburn team without AJ Lawson. The bottom of this bracket is absolutely brutal with Mississippi State, Mississippi, Tennessee and Kentucky. You have 2 of the best teams there with the 5^th best in Miss State and probably the 7^th best team with Ole Miss. The top of the bracket you have coach-less LSU who is the 3^rd best team, Auburn who is the 4^th best and I would say Florida is the 6^th best and that is where you may find some value. Don’t get me wrong because I think Kentucky wins this thing as long as Reid Travis is playing but Florida definitely has the easiest rout with the best odds. Florida is 15-1 to win this thing but you can get up to 28-1 as long as they Play LSU after Arkansas (which they would have to play anyways) Auburn instead of SC, and Kentucky or Tennessee in the finals. Florida has the best away ATS in the SEC and they have already beaten LSU on the road. I am not crazy about betting this bracket but I would definitely like a ML rollover on Florida and possibly Kentucky and hope that they meet in the Finals.

ML Rollover on Florida small and large on Kentucky if Travis is back. If Travis not back then Tennessee isn’t the worst ML rollover play due to their high away shooting percentage.

The Atlantic 10 Tournament

So this division is interesting because VCU is for sure in due to their Texas and Temple non-conference wins. Whenever a smaller conference has an at-large that is in for sure, I love to look at the other teams fighting their asses off for tournament birth plus you will not get much value for VCU at-140 . The next obvious one to me is the 2^nd seed Davidson at +400. Now it is either going to be them or Dayton at +375 to make the championship game. Dayton beat Davidson this year at their house but Davidson has the better conference record. Dayton has had the overall harder schedule and is ranked higher on Kenpom so that is why you see their odds a little bit better to win, but I like that Davidson is taller than Dayton and their coach Bob McKillop has more experience here. The other play that I have is a longer shot on the top of the bracket in Rhode Island. I like the fact that they beat VCU already once this year and love how they finished their season winning their last 4 games. I also love their point guard Jeff Dowtin and I think he has the capability of taking over games. Rhode Island can also choke and lose to some bad teams but I really like the fact that VCU has less to play for here and if Rhode Island wins that game, then they play a St Bonaventure team that they had already beaten once this year. 30-1 odds looks pretty tasty to me.

Rhode Island 30-1 and Davidson 4-1

The Big 10 Tournament

Well this is a very interesting bracket this year. There is a definite separation between the best 2 teams over the rest but I also think that there are 2 or 3 teams here that can beat anyone when on or lose to anybody when off. Those teams are Wisconsin, Iowa and Indiana. Indiana at 60-1 and Iowa at 60 to 1 definitely have the most value in this bracket at those huge numbers. If I was going to make a case for Indiana, I can easily say they are on the same side as Michigan State whom they defeated twice and Wisconsin whom they only played once and defeated at home in overtime. The problem with me on this is that I think that Indiana happened to play State and Sconnie when they were at their coldest while Indiana was pretty much playing for their lives. I think you are counting your blessings if you think Izzo will lose to a team like Indiana 3 times in a row. Having said that I really do not have a problem with you betting those huge 60-1 odds for the reasons that I previously stated as well as the fact that Indiana is definitely the hottest team in the big 10. Iowa on the other hand at 60-1 is on the harder side of the bracket being that they would have to beat number 3 Michigan and number 2 Purdue in order to just get to the championship game but what I like about Iowa is that they have the 3^rd best offense in the big 10 and have proven that they can hit clutch shots with Bohannon. I also like the fact that they beat Michigan once this year and the Wolverines are a little injured with Matthews being questionable. Now if Minnesota can play anything like they did at home vs Purdue a week ago, then there is a small shot that Iowas road can get a little easier and then you can most likely hedge after the Michigan game. To be completely honest this scenario is still kind of a long shot so I think that taking a money line rollover with Wisconsin or Michigan State at the top of the bracket for twice the money that you put on Iowa would make some sense to help hedge out of that one. I am personally going to pick of course play Wisconsin because you can make more money with it should they beat Maryland and Michigan State. I also don’t have a problem playing on the 4^th best defense in all of the nation on Kenpom and the 1^st best defense in the big 10. I also know that Wisconsin last year played State very tough and they may be able to finally get one past them. I do not have a problem if you play State instead but I am looking for upside and bang for my buck and who knows, maybe Michigan State does drop that first game to the Hoosiers. 😊

Iowa 60-1 (or Indiana 60-1)

Wisconsin ML Rollover (or Michigan State)

The MAC Tournament

How is Buffalo only -150 when Gonzaga is -850. The separation between them and the second best team in Toledo is larger than Gonzaga to St Marys. Either way I still think it is better to do a ML rollover on Buffalo here and take it all the way home.

Buffalo ML rollover

March 11, 2019 – NHL Slate with JKSportsBets

By

Joey K

-

March 11, 2019

Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned

Well, the Knights got outplayed yesterday. They tied it up at three early in the second but then lost their steam. Interestingly enough, my two potential plays on totals yesterday both would have missed. At least we’re able to show restraint when needed!

Florida just annihilated the Wings. Look got potential future plays against Detroit.
Yesterday was a great day of hockey between very evenly matched teams. Today looks similar, but there are a couple edges to exploit.

Today’s Slate

Columbus Blue Jackets @ New York Islanders – If there’s one team I’m not comfortable investing in right now it’s the Blue Jackets. They have been all over the place. New York, meanwhile, is coming off a home loss to Philadelphia and should be looking for redemption. Interestingly enough, the Isles are 8-3 in their last eleven with exactly two days rest. That seems to be the key for them. Tonight, I’m fading the Jackets and putting faith in an Isles team at home that needs a win to stay in the thick of the playoff race. I’m just not sure Columbus is going to start clicking in time to make the postseason. Last time out between these two the Jackets lost at home to New York 3-0. Look for something similar tonight. The total has dropped to 5.5, so now is the time to jump if you want the OVER. We’re taking one unit there because both teams have shown propensity to score early and often at times. I think a 4-2/4-3 win by New York is quite possible here.

New York Islanders -1.5 (+235) 1unit
New York Islanders ML (-106) 3units
Columbus/New York Islander OVER 5.5 (-105) 1unit

San Jose Sharks @ Minnesota Wild – Next, we travel north. San Jose visits the Wild for a marquee matchup on NBCSN. This should be a great game, but if you look at the numbers they give some hints as to who might pull ahead in the end. Minnesota is actually not good at home this year, posting a measly 14-13-6 record; they actually boast a better road record. Meanwhile, the Sharks haven’t been phenomenal on the road (they have a winning record by four games) but have been great against the Central at 12-4-0. And look at the Wild against the Pacific; 10-10-1. The Wild have lost both meetings to the Sharks this year, one in each arena, and the previous matchup at Xcel Energy Center went really badly for Minnesota, as they lost 4-0. Looking at the netminders, Devan Dubnyk has a losing record at home and worse stats than he does on the road. He was in goal for each of the Wild’s two losses to the Sharks this year, giving up seven total goals in those two starts. Another angle I like here is in the first period. The Sharks have the second-most first period goals this year, only three behind Tampa and nine ahead of third place Pittsburgh. Minnesota scores the seventh-fewest first period goals of all the teams, and they give up about league average. While it could be 0-0 after the first, it could easily be 1-0 or 2-0/2-1 San Jose as well. We’ll put a unit there, and another one ATS in case the Sharks sink that empty netter with the outrageous price we’re getting. But our real money goes on the ML.

San Jose -1.5 (+225) 1unit
San Jose ML (-109) 3units
San Jose -0.5 (1^st Period) (+175) 1unit

Those are my angles for today. Make sure you follow on twitter (@jksportsbets), as I often release in-game plays that have shown to be very profitable. Get that alarm ringing!

March 10, 2019 – NHL Slate with JKSportsBets

By

Joey K

-

March 10, 2019

Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned

What a day we had yesterday! A clean sweep, a perfect 5-0 for +11.52units in the newsletter picks, with another successful pick added via twitter in-game for a total daily profit of +14units! Just like with the losses, though, let’s not mull over it too much, and instead move on to reflection and tonight’s slate.

Chicago’s OVER streak ended at 16 games in a 2-1 win in Dallas. Be wary of any over team playing on the road in an under arena. I’ll do further research on that this week, but my initial reaction is that it goes under a lot.
The Sharks won in OT, and I felt like that was likely, so I went with the normal ML there. The Blues are a very, very good team, and very good on the road. Look for opportunities with them in the remaining weeks of the regular season.
The Flyers are good all of a sudden, and Vegas is rolling.

Today’s Slate

There are only five games tonight, but man do they all look good! Three of the five have the favorite no more than -139. Lots of good, close games between playoff teams. Vegas and Calgary, Boston and Pittsburgh, Winnipeg and Washington. LA and Anaheim do battle in SoCal, and Detroit travels into Florida. There’s not a lot of value in today’s slate, and I only have one pick I’m comfortable sharing for tonight.

The Golden Knights are hot. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again; this is a new team since the trade deadline. Meanwhile, Calgary was red hot but has now lost four in a row, including an ugly loss to the Coyotes and a loss to these Knights in Vegas. I do think Calgary will be looking for revenge at home, but I don’t think it’s coming. It’s the second game in two nights for Vegas, but I think it’s good they keep playing often with the momentum they have. Additionally, they’ve won two of the last three back legs of a back-to-back. We’ve put trust in them before, and I expect Vegas to win for us again here.

Vegas ML (+119) 2units

Unfortunately, that’s it for today! Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets); I’ll be keeping an eye on the scoreboard and likely releasing some IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability. Make sure you have that alarm bell turned on!

NASCAR & NBA Free plays

By

557355

-

March 10, 2019

Today in Phoenix, AZ at ISM Raceway will be the 4th Nascar Monster Cup series race of the 2019 season. This week the cars are back to 750 hp but they keep the 8″ spoilers which give them a lot of extra downforce that will create some exciting racing! Since this will be the first race with this particular package we’re going to limit the juice and pick drivers that like this track and can wheel it. We’ve been in the green the last two weeks with our picks and will look to continue that in this ever changing season.

Kyle Larson (-125) Vs Clint Bowyer
$75 to Win $60

Kyle Larson (+125) vs Ryan Blaney
$80 to Win $100

Erik Jones (EVEN) vs Aric Almirola
$50 to win $50

Daytona 500: -$200
Atlanta: +$90
Vegas: +$5
Total: -$105

Sunday Afternoon Toronto visits Miami, as we are in the final stretch of the season I think we’re likely to see more overs and I think a day game plays to that even more.
Raptors/Heat over 216

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS

March 9, 2019 – NHL Slate with JKSportsBets

By

Joey K

-

March 9, 2019

Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned

Last time out we didn’t fare so well. There were several upsets that we were on the wrong side of, and some totals that came oh so close. The best that we can do is to learn from our mistakes!

Yesterday three of the four winning teams scored six goals or more. Two of them had eight each. The Ducks scored more last night than they did in the seven games from February 2^nd to 17^th. Wow.
Winnipeg also put up an eight burger last night. It’s their third time this season they’ve scored 8+ in a game and the fifth time they’ve scored 7+. Also, wow.

Today’s Slate

There are 12 games tonight, but we’re taking a different approach than usual. I can’t find any good edges with the totals; again, I’m recommending you proceed with caution on the Blackhawks over bet. Dallas is an UNDER team, especially at home, and if you watched the ‘Hawks game on Thursday when I sent out my previous fade recommendation, you’ll know it was very close to missing. Let’s move on.

San Jose is the second-best home team in the league this year, behind only Tampa Bay. They’re 11-2 in their last 13 at home, and somehow always manage to win at SAP Center. The Blues were playing well for quite a while but seem to have lost a step recently. They’re 2-2 in their last four and probably should have lost that game in Anaheim if it were not for a colossal collapse by the Ducks. Take the home team at a reduced price in this one – the Sharks are near unbeatable in downtown San Jose and have everything to play for.

San Jose ML (-130) 2units

The Devils are 1-7 in their last eight back legs of a back-to-back on the road. They played (and lost) last night in Washington, and they have just looked terrible this year. Meanwhile, while the Rangers have been out of the playoff race for some time now they show no signs of stopping. They continue to push the pace and tempo every game and play as if they were competing for that last playoff spot. The Rangers have lost six in a row but bear with me; they’ve lost those games by an average of 1.16 goals/game. All of them have been one-goal games with one two goal loss in there. Those include losses to Montreal (playing very well), Tampa Bay, Washington (twice), and Dallas. The last win the Rangers had? At home against New Jersey. Look for the Devils to help end New York’s skid tonight.

New York Rangers 3-Way ML (-120) 2units
New York Rangers ML (-172) 3units

The Golden Knights have shown to be a new team since the deadline a couple weeks ago. They’ve since won five in a row and are clicking on all cylinders. They travel to Vancouver to face a ‘Nucks team that has gone 1-4 in their last five. Last time out Vancouver lost to the Oilers 3-2, and if you watched that game you know it wasn’t nearly as close as the score indicated. An interesting aspect to this game is that Vancouver gives up the sixth-most power plays on the year and the Knights have the seventh most efficient power play in the league. I think special teams will make a bigger impact in this game than expected, and have the Knights winning comfortably. They won 3-0 last time out against Vancouver, and I expect a similar score.

Vegas -1.5 (+152) 1unit
Vegas 3-Way ML (-125) 3units

Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) during the entire NHL slate today; I’ll be keeping an eye on the scoreboard and likely releasing some IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability. Make sure you have that alarm bell turned on!

NCAA Basketball March 10-12

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 8, 2019

Friday 3/8

Minnesota vs Maryland -7 O/U 138

This looks like 2 tournament teams facing off here at the end of the season. Minnesota is coming off that great win against Purdue while Maryland is coming off of a tough home loss against Michigan. Minnesota is 5-5 ATS on the road while Maryland is 7-9-1 at home. Now the spot definitely says potential let down here for Minnesota but they still probably remain a slight bubble team even after beating Purdue. Minnesota is pretty locked up where they stand in the big 10 tournament which is a second day game but Maryland on the other hand still has a shot at getting a 2 day bye should Wisconsin lose a game. Maryland is on 4 days rest and Minnesota will only be on 2 so as you see the spot favors Maryland. The home road offensive splits show Maryland scoring 11.5 more points per game at home rather than on the road and Minnesota scoring 14.7 points less on the road and at home. Part of this huge disparity is obviously both teams play most easy non conference games at home but these double digits at this point in the year definitely say something. In conference games Maryland ranks top 5 adjusted efficiency on offense and 4th on defense while Minnesota is 6th and 10th respectively. Looking at the match-up Maryland’s biggest weakness is turnovers ranking last in the big 10 in losing the ball and steals. Minnesota doesn’t steal the ball well ranking 13th. Minnesota’s biggest weakness is defending in the paint and rebounding while Maryland has the size to score down low with dual 6’10 guy Bruno Fernando and Jaylen Smith. I like the Terps to cover here and re-establish their position as a top tier big 10 team. I have this Maryland

Maryland -7 and lean under 138

Central Michigan vs Western Michigan +3 O/U 153

Both Tom Kolpien and I like the Central Michigan -3 as long as Montgomery is playing.

Michigan vs Michigan State -4 O/U 131

Well this game certainly became interesting now that Purdue has lost to Minnesota. Michigan State and Michigan with a win here secures at least a portion of the big 10 regular season title. Michigan may get a little extra love here on the spot because it is a revenge game for that loss at home. Michigan is 6-4 ATS on the road but Michigan State is a crazy 11-4 ATS at home. Michigan State will be without Nick Ward and Michigan will be without Charles Matthews and I think these injuries somewhat cancel each other out. Home road splits are not too extravagant for the Wolverines but for Sparty they are are around 17 points. Conference points per game splits has Sparty winning 68 to 67 on a neutral or 70-65 at home. Michigan States offensive and defensive efficiency rank 1st and 3rd in the big 10 while Michigan ranks 4th and 1st. Overall Michigan State has the 4th best offense in the nation and Michigan has the 3rd best defense in the nation. This game will be hard to pick a side here. Michigan did not shoot as well last game and had 10 less free throws. What I am going to look at is the over. It is true that both of these teams play at the slower tempo but being that these teams are among the best in the big 10 you have to add a possession or back in for each team to assume there won’t be much of a garbage time. This game went to 147 a few weeks ago. I have it Michigan State winning 70 – 65

Over 131 and lean Michigan +4

Louisville vs Virginia – 11 O/U 124

Both Tom and I like the under 124

Texas Tech vs Iowa State -1 O/U 137

Texas Tech has been on fire winning their last 8 games in a row, 7-1 ATS in those games and being a modest 4-4 ATS as an away team. Iowa State is definitely in the tournament beating this Tech team back in Mid January and boasting an 8-5-1 at home against the spread record. Looking at the spot, Iowa State could gain back a better seed for winning this game in the NCAA tournament but it won’t help them win the big 12. This is a road revenge game for the Red Raiders and they need this win to secure at least a share of the regular season Big 12 championship so the spot definitely favors Tech here. Home road splits definitely favor the Cyclones but they have lost 2 of their last 3 home games. Texas Tech as been a much better conference team scoring 71 points and allowing only 62 while Iowa State scores 73 and allows 70. Iowa State has the 10th best offense in the nation but only the 3rd best in efficiency in the big 12. Tech’s defense is 1st in the nation and in the big 12. I think their defense prevails and their hunger to win their first regular season big 12 title should prevail. Texas Tech wins 71-69

Texas Tech +1

Syracuse vs Clemson -4 O/U 128

Both of these teams are 19-12 bubble teams who need a big victory. Back in January Syracuse beat Clemson by 8 at home. Syracuse had some bad luck vs Virginia on Monday who shot lights out against them in the Carrier Dome. Clemson has had a nice part of their schedule facing Boston College, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame 3 of their last 4 games while Syracuse had to play Louisville, Duke, North Carolina and Virginia 4 of their last 5 games. Both of these teams are middle of the road ACC teams on paper but for some reason Syracuse score’s 3 more points per game on the road then they do at home. From a match-up standpoint Syracuse has a big advantage in blocks down low and causing turnovers while Clemson has the advantage in over all defensive efficiency and low effective FG%. The key motivation here is that Syracuse needs this game more than Clemson and they will be on more rest. Clemson just played Notre Dame Wednesday and Syracuse has had 4 full days rest to think about needing this W. Syracuse always seems to come through at the end and sneak into the tournament. They like to bounce back big after a loss. I think this game is close and Clemson squeaks out a win on senior night by 65-63.

Syracuse +4 small and ml sprinkle

Purdue vs North Western +7 O/U 133

Purdue coming off of a huge loss vs Minnesota now giving up a chance at a big 10 regular season title unless they win this game. Northwestern finally getting a win after losing 10 in a row against a very injured Ohio State team without their best player in Kaleb Wesson. The Wildcats have the worst offense in the big 10 and 187th in the nation in offensive efficiency and Purdue has the 5th best in the nation at 121.5. The Boilermakers also edge out Northwestern in conference Defense. Motivation vs no motivation!

Purdue -7 may be a max play up to -11

Duke vs North Carolina -7 O/U 167

Road revenge spot for Duke. North Carolina can lock up a share of the ACC regular season here. Everyone knows that Zion Williamson is hurt and people say he is worth 5 points to the line. Well that may be true but I think the the whole Wake Forest game when duke barely beat them by 1 point and Duke’s loss to Virginia Tech will end up giving Duke a ton of line value here. No player to me is worth 5 points when it comes to the pure motivation of the team. We have to remember that Duke still has 2 active top 5 recruits and Cam Reddish. These kids will be hyped up for this game and this spot. We know both of these teams can score points but I think that even with Zion out, coach K will be having them play a little more defense. We know that Duke’s biggest weakness is shooting the 3 and free throws to some extent but where Duke has a chance here is that North Carolina ranks 10th in the conference in defending the 3. I think if Duke can get hot like they have at Syracuse and at Virginia, they should be able to motivated themselves to a cover. I like the Duke +7 but if it opens low like around 3 or 4 I may take the line value with the Tar Heels.

UNC -3 small and Duke +7 larger. Duke is the play at +7

Illinois vs Penn State -7 O/U 145

Tom likes Illinois +7 and I like the Over 145

Podcast 13 – 19 – Wagering The Weekend with Tom Kolpien – College Basketball Plays March 8th – 11th -Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 8, 2019

Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping

March Madness is here and it is the last weekend of regular season games! We first get into the Big 10 team rankings as usual. We have a new guest in handicapper Thomas Kolpien @CoverProfit comes in to discuss some of his tactics and handicapping style. We then talk a bit about some trends on how to bet some of these teams in the tournaments. Finally we get into some huge games for the weekend!

NCAA: Minnesota vs Maryland – Central Michigan vs Western Michigan – Michigan vs Michigan State – Louisville vs Virginia – Texas Tech vs Iowa State – Syracuse vs Clemson – Purdue vs Northwestern – Duke vs North Carolina – Illinois vs Penn State

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a monmth please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers

Reddit: r/the-odds-breakers

March 7, 2019 – NHL Slate with JKSportsBets

By

Joey K

-

March 7, 2019

Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned

It’s really two days ago’s reflection, but let’s not argue over nuances. We learned some very valuable pieces of information from the dumpster fire that was our investment tendencies on Tuesday. Reminder: I sent out an investment in-game last night that hit for +3units. Make sure you follow on twitter (@jksportsbets) for these profitable in-game investments!

Columbus simply can’t be trusted right now.
The Coyotes are being overvalued in the market (more below).
Vegas is a very good team, and I would not want to face them in the first round. Clearly, the addition of Stone has sparked something.

We got a good slate tonight! I have a LOT of value here.

Today’s Slate

We have 11 games to wade through tonight, and there’s value to be had across the board.

Is there any team hotter right now than the Bruins? Four wins in a row and 11 in their last 12. If you’ve been investing with them it has paid off handsomely. Wins against Tampa, the Sharks (twice), Vegas, the Isles, the Caps; you name a team, and Boston has beaten them recently. Meanwhile, the Panthers have lost five in a row, and are coming off an overtime loss to Pittsburgh. Florida has now fallen out of the playoff race, and it’s starting to show. The ML is too juiced, and the spread is only at +125, so take a 3-Way ML bet for the B’s tonight.

Boston 3-Way ML (-145) 2units

The Penguins have won seven in a row against Columbus dating back to 2017. Columbus is reeling, and no one on that team is clicking with each other. Also, three of their last four head-to-head have gone OVER the total. Columbus has lost four of the last six as an underdog and lost 5-2 the last time these teams met. Columbus has been inconsistent across the board lately, and inconsistency won’t fly tonight in Pittsburgh – the Pens are playing their best hockey of the season. In an interesting spot, these two teams will face off again on Saturday. I think the fireworks happen here; tonight. Take the over and take the Pens.

Pittsburgh ML (-130) 2units
Columbus/Pittsburgh OVER 6.5 (-128) 1unit

Tampa Bay. What is there to say that you don’t already know. Winners of 12 of their last 13. Winners of the President’s Trophy. Winners of the regular season. Here’s one you might not know; in their last eight at home, Tampa has scored more than four goals six times. Right now, you can find a team total O/U set at 3.5. Clear OVER bet there. Additionally, a 3-Way line on Tampa is under -175 right now, which is not that common. The Wild have strung together a couple wins which might be the reason for the ML drop, but these wins were not deserved. They can’t stand up to the competition in Florida.

Tampa Bay -1.5 (+105) 1unit
Tampa Bay 3-Way ML (-160) 3units
Tampa Bay Team Total OVER 3.5 (-120) 3units

Vancouver and Edmonton have had their struggles this year. One of the biggest issue for the ‘Nucks is the goaltending and the depth (or lack thereof) in that position. Tonight, they’re starting Thatcher Demko in his fourth ever career start. The last two starts he gave up eight goals combined. He’s only started two games since the middle of January, the aforementioned two; oh, and by the way, he gave up those eight goals to the Sabres and the Coyotes. Not exactly elite competition. Interest stat: in their six games at home with an O/U of 6, the Oilers are 4-1-1 to the OVER. Edmonton is 5-2 in the last seven, while the ‘Nucks are 2-6 in their last eight. Over and Oilers look good here. The regular ML is too juiced, so look 3-Way instead.

Edmonton -1.5 (+160) 2units
Edmonton 3-Way ML (-120) 3units
Edmonton/Vancouver OVER 6 (+108) 2units

This is a clear bet on Calgary spot. They’ve had some tough losses lately having lost three in a row. But let’s keep in mind which teams these losses were to: Minnesota, Toronto, and Vegas. Those three teams are definitely fighting for playoff positioning, and losses to them are nothing to be disappointed about. Calgary had a seven game win streak before this losing streak where they beat the Islanders twice, the Pens once, and these ‘Yotes 5-2. Meanwhile, Arizona has won six of their last seven, yet those wins were not convincing, and they were against subpar competition. Due to recency bias, you’re getting a ridiculous price on Calgary today. Take the trifecta with confidence.

Calgary -1.5 (+200) 1unit
Calgary 3-Way ML (+110) 2units
Calgary ML (-129) 3units

The Kings have gone OVER in five of their last six, and yet the O/U sits at 5.5 simply because the Blues are in town. Los Angeles is 6-2 to the over in their last eight. Jake Allen is expected to start for St. Louis tonight, and he’s given up at least four goals in three of the last five. Meanwhile, Quick posts an ugly 3.30 GAA and .891 SV through 36 games played this year. I like the OVER here. Also, the Blues are not good in the second half of back-to-backs this year, having lost 10 of their last 12 in that role, including ugly losses to Arizona (twice) and Anaheim. They were outscored in those two losses to Arizona 12-1. Yuck. The Kings have taken many quality teams the distance this year, just to fall short in the third or in overtime. We keep thinking their motivation will drop but it doesn’t. At +152, it’s too good a spot to pass up. Keep an eye on my twitter (@jksportsbets) specifically for this game, I can see situations where we can find value in-game as well.

Los Angeles ML (+152) 1unit
Los Angeles/St. Louis OVER 5.5 (+123) 2units

You might notice there’s a very blatant OVER bet missing from my recommendations tonight. Yep. I’m doing the unthinkable and telling you to fade the Blackhawks OVER tonight. This one’s based on intuition; the ‘Hawks have been an over machine. I’m very wary of tonight’s game against the Sabres, and I think you should be too. Invest in the game total with care.

Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) during the entire NHL slate tonight, as I release IN-GAME plays that greatly increase profitability. Make sure you have the alarm bell turned on!

NCAA Basketball Tuesday 2-Pack – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

March 5, 2019

Nebraska vs Michigan State -13 O/U 139

Nebraska may be the most disappointing team in the big 10 this year. With hopes of tournament birth this team has only won 2 of their last 12 games and much of the reason for this is when they lost their second best player Isaiah Copeland in January. Michigan State has had their own injuries losing Josh Langford and then recently Nick Ward for a few weeks who should be able to come back for the Tournament Madness. Sparty is coming off of another embarrassing lost to an Indiana team who is trying to get back on the bubble with a win against Wisconsin a week ago as well. MSU should be plenty motivated here to finish out their games with wins in order to try and get a piece of that Big 10 regular season. What sticks out like a soar thumb to me is how bad Nebraska is as an away team. Over their last 3 road games they have lost by an average of 23.5 points and now they have to play the best in the Big 10. Michigan State may be pretty injured but their defense is still very good holding opponents to only 61 points per game at home. Both teams play slow in conference at 65.9 plays per game. This Nebraska team is pretty much now out of contention for the NCAA tournament unless they somehow win the Big 10 tournament and I think that they will not be motivated to play hard here in this spot. I like Michigan State to take care of business defensively to keep up with Purdue for the Big 10 regular season title.

Michigan State -13 and under 139

South Carolina vs Texas A&M – 4.5 O/U 142

This game is more of a situational play rather than a spot play. Both of these teams are out of the NCAA tournament and both are going in opposite directions. South Carolina has lost their best player in point guard AJ Lawson to injury a week ago who averaged 14 points per game, 3 assists per game, 1.1 steels per game and even 4.4 rebounds. This injury really stuck its ugly head out on Saturday vs Missouri with SC losing by 15. Now South Carolina has to go on the road again after dropping 3 straight games to face an Aggies team that has a lot of pride. Texas A&M has been relatively hot ripping off wins in 5 of their last 7 games. Now both of these teams play pretty sloppy and turn the ball over plenty but the 2 things that I am banking on here in this handicap is that South Carolina thrives by shooting the 3 point shot with the fact that they lost their best shooter to injury and Texas A&M is a team that defends the 3 very well while having the better defense. Both offenses are pretty much equal if all things are held equal but the big injury to the Gamecocks should once again rear it’s ugly head. I do not see how South Carolina wins this game without their stud and this line should be -6.

Texas A&M -4.5

March 5, 2019 – NHL Slate with JKSportsBets

By

Joey K

-

March 5, 2019

Yesterday’s Reflection: What We Learned

We only found value in one investment yesterday – I don’t force them, I only take ‘em when I feel there’s value to be had. The good news is our investment paid off for a +3unit profit yesterday! Buffalo and Edmonton hit the over in the second period, so there was no stress in that one. The main takeaway from yesterday is…

The Leafs and Flames game was pretty disappointing. Expected a great one, got a mediocre one.

We have a busy slate tonight!

Today’s Slate

There are 10 games tonight. A lot of the games, however, have lines that I feel are pretty good. The real value tonight will be in-game wagers. As long as there’s value to be found, I’ll be releasing plays in between periods of the games tonight on my twitter (@jksportsbets). The track record proves that these investments are more profitable than other types of bets – so follow and get that alarm bell on for maximum profit!

We’ll start in Jersey. Call me an optimist, but I know this Blue Jackets team will come together soon enough. Since the trade deadline expectations have been high but results have been low. This is a great spot for the Jackets to start a run. They can build momentum against a weak Devils team and follow it up with two straight against the Pens. While this might seem like a classic “look ahead” spot, I don’t believe so. Columbus knows they need to win and win now. Since the deadline they haven’t had a road game, so this is a great chance to get their feet under themselves away from the distractions at home. The Devils have lost three in a row and four of five, meanwhile the Jackets won four of their last five on the road before the deadline. Look for this unpredictable Columbus team to return to winning ways and predictability tonight at Prudential Center (and the 3-Way line is only -130 at MyBookie).

Columbus -1.5 (+110) 2units
Columbus 3-Way ML (-130) 3units

Out in the desert about 100 miles from where I’m at right now is a battle between average and bad. Anaheim drives out to visit the Coyotes at Gila River Arena. The good news for investors is that these are two of the most UNDER proficient teams in the league. Anaheim has gone under eight in their last 11 as well as 6-1 in the last seven. Arizona is 7-4 to the under in their last 11. Both offenses are terrible – the ‘Yotes are 28^th in the league in GF, and the Ducks are dead last. But not only do these teams not score, they don’t give up an insane amount of goals. The Ducks are 16^th in GA and the Coyotes allow the 8^th fewest goals in the NHL. The UNDER is at 5.5, and deservedly so. Take it for two units. Additionally, Arizona is right in the middle of a seven game homestand, and they’ve won six in a row. Those wins have come against subpar teams (except for one against Winnipeg), and that’s what the Coyotes face tonight. They have a chance (albeit a small one) to make their first trip back to the postseason since they lost to the Kings in the conference finals in 2011-2012. This team is playing very well right now – I’m continually impressed by the hustle shown by Conor Garland. Throw a unit on the ML and put faith in the Desert Dogs tonight. Unfortunately, both investments are juiced up, so make exposure low here.

Arizona ML (-158) 1unit
Anaheim/Arizona UNDER 5.5 (-145) 2units

Southern California is our last stop, again. For most of the year the Kings were an under team. Under, under, under. Bad teams don’t score goals, and therefore the under hits reliably, right? Well, lately not so. The Kings, since their streak of 5 in a row to the under ended on January 17, have been 9-2 to the OVER. They’re still losing games, but the offense has picked it up. When you break it down by division it gets more interesting. In terms of O/U, the Kings have hit the over in eight of their last ten against the Atlantic. With the total at only 5.5, this is a clear OVER bet for me. Additionally, when looking at the side, Los Angeles is 2-9-3 against the Atlantic this year (and have lost the last TWELVE IN A ROW). Yep. The Kings have lost twelve in a row to the Atlantic, including losses to Ottawa (x2), Buffalo (x2), and Detroit. Meanwhile Montreal is a surprising 10-3 SU against the Pacific and have won six in a row, including 4-1 on the road this year. The Canadiens are right in the mix of the playoff race in the East and are playing with lots of motivation. We’re throwing a lot at this matchup.

Montreal -1.5 (+195) 1unit
Montreal 3-Way ML (+115) 1unit
Montreal ML (-137) 3units
Los Angeles/Montreal OVER 5.5 (-111) 3units

Follow me on twitter (@jksportsbets) especially tonight, as I’m hopeful for more value to be found in-game, so our LIVE IN-GAME investments should increase profitability. Make sure you have the alarm bell turned on to get notified of my tweets since I release plays IN-GAME that greatly increase our profitability!