The Outback Bowl, Tampa Florida – Mississippi State vs Iowa +7 O/U 44

Dual action sharp and public on Mississippi State bringing this spread from -5 to -7. Iowa is without their TE Noah Fant cause he is holding out for the draft.   They also have had some banged up TEs this year but I would be hard pressed to think that their isn’t another 6’7 corn fed Hawkeye kid that that catch the ball and run a little bit in this state. Both these teams are better than what they showed during the regular season.   No huge wins and had opportunities but fizzed out at the end.   Both teams have top 6 defenses both allowing less than 300 yards per game with mediocre offenses. Both programs also had hard schedules. Kirk Ferentz has more experience then Joe Moorhead due to Joe’s first year as the boss. Ran the numbers and I have Mississippi state winning 23 to 20.5 so this is a play for me.   This low total tells me how to bet this game

Iowa +7 and ML

The Citrus Bowl, Orlando Florida – Kentucky vs Penn State -6.5 O/U 47.5

It is pretty strange that Kentucky football is looking better than Kentucky basketball so far this year. I am very impressed by some of their wins at Florida, Missouri and home against Mississippi State. This team was rewarded with a great bowl game and it is well deserved. Mark Stoops did a fantastic job with these lower recruits. Penn State on the other hand has had a typical Penn State year blowing out a lot of teams but still falling short in the Big games vs Michigan and Ohio State. What I will say about the Nitney Lions is that they will be motivated for this game. James Franklin has an impressive 5-2 ATS in bowl games and this will be Tracey McSorleys final game and final audition to the NFL. Penn State has quietly had a great defense allowing only 4.7 yards per play with a very tough schedule. Kentucky gave up 5.2 on defense. I do like both running backs Miles Sanders for Penn State is a 5 star guy and Benny Snell of Kentucky played just as well but the Nitney Lions are better at stopping the run allowing only 4 yards per carry. Penn State has a more explosive offense than the Wildcats averaging about 6.2 yards per play to 5.7. The stats are screaming at me to take Penn State and the kicker is that McSorley will have a great game and audition for the NFL.

Penn State -6.5

The Fiesta bowl, Glendale Arizona – UCF vs LSU -7.5 O/U 55.5

It is too hard to cap this especially with McKenzie Milton out for Central Florida. One would think that LSU should be able to just run the ball all over the black knights with UCF allowing 4.8 Yards per rush on defense in the AAC which isn’t good at all. What is LSU’s Motivation here?   Would they be embarrassed like Auburn if they lose this game or would they rather stick it to the committee and potentially the integrity of this years national champion/Alabama if UCF remains undefeated? Well if you like crazy conspiracy theories than maybe take Central Florida on the Money Line +245 and if you don’t then LSU should be able to pound this team -7.5. I personally hate this +7.5 spread and do not think it will come into play. This game might have to be a live betting situation such as what Chris said.

Live bet during the first drive. If it is LSU looks great take them.  If not then take UCF.

The Rose Bowl, Pasadena California – Ohio State vs Washington +7 O/U 57.5

So when Urban Meyer announced that he is again retiring from College Football, everyone and their mom decided to go and bet Ohio State driving this line up to 7. 83% of the tickets are on Ohio State and 89% of the money is as well. It’s almost like Washington doesn’t even deserve to play in this game. Washington’s players must really hate their coach Chris Peterson. The Husky’s Quarterback Jake Browning must not want to play in the NFL. All sarcasm aside I actually have Ohio State from a power ratings perspective about 8 points better than Washington but if I took Ohio State it isn’t because of this motivation factor because we also do not know what the underclassman think about the coach who recruited them leaving to be assistant Athletic Director at the University. One thing that is for sure is that Ohio State’s defense was not good this year allowing 5.8 yards per play to Washington’s 4.6. The Buckeye’s edge out Washington at 6.7 yards per play on offense to the Husky’s 6.1 One thing that I found is that Washington has been a terrible second half team. They rank 126th at 8.2 points in the second half while Ohio State ranks 4th at 21.8. Ohio State has a better points average at 21-17 also in the first half but Washington has had the harder overall schedule. I am going to play this one and take Washington to cover 3.5 in the first half and Ohio State in the second.

Washington +3.5 first half and Ohio State Second Half

The Sugar Bowl, New Orleans LA – Texas vs Georgia -13 O/U 58

We all know who Georgia is as that team who is Top 4 that isn’t in the playoffs. My big question here is what is Georgia’s motivation after losing that game with that terrible fake punt call vs Alabama. They had them! How defeating of a loss and does beating Texas prove anything?   Most Power ratings has Georgia by 11 to 14 points. Jake Fromm is a baller and I think he will try to win but Sam Ellinger from Texas is also a winner and we don’t have to talk about Tom Herman as a dog. Texas plays up or down to their competition. I have this game Georgia 35-23 but no lean on the side due to motivational questions….

Small lean to Georgia -13 and lean over 58

The Military Bowl, Annapolis Maryland – Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech +5.5 O/U 53.5

Here is another weird game in the middle of 2 key numbers. Cincinnati had a fantastic year going 10-2 and deserved a good bowl game while Virginia tech was very disappointing team this year losing to teams like Old Dominion, Miami, and Boston College. They haven’t beaten any ranked teams but they did one thing that was great. They finished out their season beating Virginia and Marshall to continue their bowl streak of 26 consecutive appearances. This now the most in a row for current teams now that Florida State is out at 36 years. The Bearcats on the other hand hasn’t really played anybody with a pulse besides Temple and Central Florida losing to both teams. Well they barely beat Ohio so I give them that. The Bearcats did great things on defense allowing only 4.6 yards per play while averaging 6.1 on offense. Most of the offense is due to beast running back Michael Warren who had over 1100 yards this year. It was mostly Virginia Tech’s defense who failed them this year allowing 6.4 yards per play and 5.4 yards per rush. Now it didn’t look like this those last 2 games. Something clicked with this team so I really don’t want to take the favorite who should be able to run all over the Hokies laying 5.5 points. These schedules are much too different here and my lean is Va Tech and the under

Lean Virginia Tech +5.5 maybe a small over 52 play

The Redbox Bowl, Santa Clara California – Michigan State vs Oregon -2.5 O/U 48

Well this certainly is more of a home game for Oregon yet it is still a 560 mile drive for fans from Eugene. What can we say about this Michigan State team? Talk about wasting a great defense this year? Their D averaged 2.6 against the run which is top 2. 18 points allowed per gamewhich is top 14 and 4.6 yards per play which is top 12. Their pathetic offense only averaged 4.7 yards per play. Part of this terrible play was being without RB LJ Scott for a few games and also losing Felton Davis for the season in October. Their star cornerback Justin Layne will be sitting out this game for the NFL draft. Oregon on the other hand also had high expectations with new coach Mario Christibal but that fizzled out when they first blew that game against Stanford and then later losing to Arizona was unacceptable. At least Oregon with Justin Herbert at the helm has an offense that can move the ball averaging 6 yards per play. One thing I hate doing is betting against a seasoned coach like Mark Dantonio in bowl games. He is 6-4 ATS and knows how to stop teams dead in their tracks. Power ratings has this about a pickem but If I had to choose a side here I would lean Oregon with the points but the only play here for me would be under 48. I think Michigan State runs the ball all day and tries to control the Time of Possession.

Under 48 small

The Liberty Bowl, Memphis Tennessee – Missouri vs Oklahoma State +8 O/U 74.5

Well this total tells you a lot about this game. Oklahoma State saved my season win total under 7.5 when losing to TCU at the end of the season. More importantly, anybody that gives up 31 points to TCU should have to take a trip to the pit of misery. Missouri has been amazing since their Alabama game winning 5 out of 6. Pretty big wins there against Florida and Memphis and averaging 40 points per game during that stretch. Oklahoma State in my opinion had some big wins vs West Virginia and Texas but they seemed to catch teams at the right time this year. When they played anyone with a pulse of a defense they lost to K state by 19, Texas Tech by 24 and Iowa State at home by 6. If you plug their yards per play numbers it favors Oklahoma State but you can’t use that looking at these schedules. Missouri had to play Alabama, Georgia, Purdue, South Carolina and Kentucky while Oklahoma State had the typical big 12 schedule and Boise State who gave up some special teams touchdowns to them. If you go by most power ratings is has Missouri by 7 or 8 hence the line move but I am going by what Jeff Sagarin has from a recency perspective that puts much more weight on how you finished the season. If you look at that the Power rating shows Missouri winning this game by 18 points. This Oklahoma State team is fake news. What’s real news is that their star RB Justice Hill is not playing this bowl game while Drew Locke is for Missouri is. This high total says a lot to me. I am taking Missouri -8

Missouri -8

The Holiday Bowl, San Diego California – Northwestern vs Utah – +7.0 O/U 46

Both coaches Pat Fitzgerald and Kyle Wittingham have fantastic bowl records ATS With Kyle at 8-3 ant Pat at 6-4 since 2005. Here is another game of some very solid teams. The strange thing about Northwestern is that they played great in the Big 10 West and terrible in the non-conference losing every game to Notre Dame, Akron and Duke oh and all those games were at home BTW. They give up .8 yards per play more on defense than they do on offense. They only beat Rutgers by 3 and Illinois by 8. BUT, this is also the team that beat Purdue, Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska. They also almost beat Michigan and lost at the very end. Utah on the other hand did very well and won the Pac 12 South but they had a very mild Pac 12 schedule with non conference games vs NIU, BYU and Weber State. Utah’s QB Tyler Hundley should finally be back for this game but he may be rusty. Northwestern will be without LB Nate hall and DT Jordan Thompson due to surgeries. If it wasn’t for these injuries I would play NU at +7 seeing that they tend to keep most games close but I am going to wait and see where this line goes.

Lean NU +7

The Taxslayer Bowl, Jacksonville Florida – Texas A&M vs NC State +7 O/U 58.5

These Teams seem pretty similar here to me. Both teams won their last 3 games. Both teams like to throw the ball. Both teams around 6.2 yards per play.  NC State gives up 5.7 yards per play and Texas A&M gives up 5.9 but the Aggies Run the ball better at 4.9 yards per rush to the Wolfpack’s 3.9. Jimbo Fisher is 5-3 ATS in bowl games while Dave Doeren is 4-1 so no advantage there. Texas A & M had a way harder schedule then NC State ranking 4th on Sagarin to NC State’s 69. My algorithm has this game closer to a pickem even after adjusting for strength of schedule. Texas A&M lacks some important efficiencies like a lower 3rd down and field goal percentage. NC State is better on 3rd down at 50% to the Aggie’s 40%. NC State is 87% at field goal percentage to A&M’s 70%. I have Texas A&M winning 29.5-28.5

NC State +7 small

The Sun Bowl, El Paso Texas – Pittsburgh vs Stanford -5.5 O/U 52

Let’s just start out by saying that Stanford’s David Shaw is 5-2 ATS in bowl games while Pittsburgh’s Pat Narduzzi is 0-2. Bryce Love is sitting out this bowl game but I don’t think it affected the spread much seeing that he was banged up all year. The huge narrative of the Pac-12 has been to fade them because of how bad they have been in bowl games and very disrespected not only in the media but also the betting Market. This line opened up around a 7 and sharp money came in on Pittsburgh. Now in my opinion, I do not think that the ACC was all that either so I do not really trust all this Pitt money. What I can trust is that Pittsburgh is a great running team at 5.6 yards per carry and runs 65% of the time. I also like how Pitt ran through some very good teams mid season. Both these teams have weak defenses giving up about 5.8 yards per play. If Stanford can’t stop the run they could lose this game outright. Both teams play top 10 slowest in the nation so I can’t take the over even though these defenses are bad. I don’t love this game but I lean Pittsburgh plus the points.

Lean Pitt +5.5

The Belk Bowl, Charlotte NC, South Carolina vs Virginia +5 O/U 53.5

These 2 teams are very solid teams. South Carolina was pretty disappointing coming into the season with higher hopes of being a better team in the SEC East and Virginia always flies under the radar beating teams like Duke, Miami and Ohio but they haven’t played anyone who is currently ranked. I don’t see a coaching advantage here because I like both coaches Bronco Mendenhall and Will Muschamp for what they are. South Carolina will be without their STUD receiver Deebo Samuel due to the NFL draft and Virginia may not have anyone that will be going to the NFL draft. Having said that I do believe that South Carolina plays in a harder conference and has some more impressive numbers. The Gamecocks have played 6 ranked teams, beat Missouri and should have beaten Texas A&M. I also like how they were able to put 35 points on the Clemson scoreboard. The Cavaliers are a run first team with a very average passing game. They key stat for me here is South Carolina’s strong 8.2 passing yards per attempt and having a 1/2 yard per play advantage of offense over Virginia.
I also like how Jake Bentley should be motivated here to A) Go to the Pros or B) Hold off 4 star recruit Ryan Hilinski from taking his job. Both teams average about the same on the ground at 4.6 yards per rush and both give up about 4.5. This game will go like the NC State vs Virginia game earlier in the year. If the weather holds up I like the Gamecocks here to cover!

South Carolina – 5

The Arizona Bowl, Tucson Arizona – Arkansas State vs Nevada +1.5 O/U 57.5

Can we forget that Nevada lost to UNLV their final game of the season? Well if you like Nevada then you should forget that because it really was a meaningless game for them anyways. We have 2 middle of the pack group of 5 schools playing for pride. Arkansas State finished better but Nevada has the better defense only allowing 5.3 yards per play to 5.7. Both teams are 6.2 yards per play and play but Nevada played a tougher schedule beating teams like Air Force and San Diego State while Arkansas State hasn’t beaten anybody. This is also more of a home game atmosphere for the Wolfpack being that Nevada is west coast. Blake Anderson is also only 1-3 ATS in bowl games so I am going to have to play Nevada on the Money Line and lean over 57.5. Play this one early because lots of local money in Vegas will drive this line up. If you like the Red Wolves then wait till the end.

Nevada ML and lean over 57.5

The Peach Bowl, Atlanta Georgia – Michigan vs Florida +6.5 O/U 51

Michigan will be without DT Rashan Gary and LB Devin Bush, Karon Higdon but I would think their second string is pretty darn good by now. Both teams are equal on yards per play on offense at 6.2 but Michigan is much better on Defense yards per play allowing 4.3 to Florida’s 5.1. Michigan was embarrassed the last game that they played as well as last year’s bowl game and that could motivate this team.     Felipe Franks played some good football this year at 23-5 TD to interception ratio completing 58% of his passes. Shea Patterson for the Wolverines completed 64% of his passes at a 21-5 TD to interception ratio. Most Power ratings has Michigan by 8.5 points. Michigan was the only big 10 team to lose last year and I think they need to prove they can get it done.

Michigan -6 to -6.5

The Cotton Bowl, Arlington Texas – Clemson vs Notre Dame +13 O/U 55.

I look at Notre Dame as the ACC team that didn’t have to play Clemson or NC State for that fact. Both teams had easy schedules but that doesn’t not make Clemson a top 2 team. Clemson leads the League in second half points. From a pure numbers and algorithm standpoint, I have Clemson winning  28-22 but that doesn’t factor in the many times the Tigers could have run up the score. From a power ratings I have Clemson by 12. Clemson is weaker against the pass as we saw against Texas A&M, Syracuse and NC State put up 35 points. Notre Dame is a good passing team with Ian Book at the helm. I think Notre Dame will scheme in the first half well enough to cover and I think Clemson pulls away in the second half of the game.

Notre Dame first half +7 and Clemson second half -?

The Orange Bowl, Miami Florida – Alabama vs Oklahoma +14 O/U 77.

Oklahoma’s defense Ranks 95th in points allowed at 32.5 and 102nd in yards per play at 6.0.   Alabama is top 7 in both categories allowing only 14.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. Oklahoma’s offense ranks first in points per game at 49.5 and yards per play at 8.7, but Alabama ranks second in both of those areas  48 points per game and 7.9 yards per play in a much tougher division but easier non conference schedule.   A big factor in this game is how tight will this game be called by the officials.  Oh, by the way, I just saw that Oklahoma star WR Marquise Brown will be attempting to play in this game so there’s that but that doesn’t mean he still won’t be hobbled and maybe ineffective.  I could see this game being close or I can see Alabama blowing them out. I think Saben will look to the Oklahoma vs Army game here and play keep away.

Under 77 points and especially if Bama is leading at the half by double digits.  

If game is single digits at half time then take the second half over.