NFL Week 15 plays – Sports Betting

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December 15, 2018

Cleveland vs Denver – 3

Well here are 2 teams that are really pretty much in the same situation. Both teams are 3rd in their division and have almost the same records with Cleveland 5-7-1 and Denver 6-7. Now Cleveland has been on the up since they fired coach Hugh Jackson and decided to go with Freddie Kitchens. Denver on the other hand still has some coach controversy over Vance Joseph. When looking at the team stats you have to give it to Denver slightly on defense averaging about 25 less yards per game and Cleveland slightly on offense averaging about 4 more yards per game. The handicap I love here is the situation. Cleveland is still a very motivated team trying to prove that they will be finally not just relevant but maybe a playoff team next year while Denver pretty much just had their playoff hopes crushed last week at San Francisco. What is now even worse for Denver is that they really got hit hard with the Injury bug over the last few weeks losing Emmanual Sanders, Jeff Heuerman, and cornerback Chris Harris. They also had a ton of people banged up from last game who are questionable. Because of this and their season crushing situation, I see Cleveland not only covering this spread but also winning this game outright.

Cleveland +3 and ML

Philadelphia vs LA Rams -9

Well if you saw the Eagles Season win total around 9 or 9.5 it is because of the brutal schedule’s that Superbowl teams get. The NFL is the great equalizer in that aspect anyways. The Eagles have not been the team of last year and can really only beat up on the bad teams. Last week Amari Cooper exposed their injured secondary and was able to go for over 200 yards with an average QB throwing them the ball. Now the Eagles have to travel to LA where they play one of the 4 best teams in the league who was embarrassed last week in Chicago. This is their second road game in a row and they are about to experience some amazing athlete’s. The eagles also just lost Corey Clement who was the last RB to play in last years Superbowl before losing Ajayi in early October. The Rams are a top 3 offense in both points and yards per game with a very disruptive defense. Their secondary played lights out last week vs the Bears with Talib back at corner. Being that the Eagles are a bottom 5 rushing team and Carson Wentz will not even be playing…

LA Rams -9 all the way to -13.5

Greenbay vs Chicago -5.5

Now I do not really understand why the spread went down so much because the situation does not match up. Most power ratings have the bears at about a 5 to 6 point favorite here and maybe people think that this is a let down spot for Chicago for beating the top team in the NFL last week. Let down spots do not factor in division clinching games and I do not understand why people would think that. If the Bears win this game, not only do they clinch a playoff spot, but they also clinch the NFC North division which has been their first goal starting with the rebuild that happened 4 years ago. To add to this, it is also a huge revenge spot for the bears going back to their first game vs the Packers where they gave up a 21 point lead in the second half making Aaron Rodgers look like a football god and choking that game away. I would actually rank the Revenge spot higher than the division clinching spot. Now everyone thinks after last week that Mike McCarthy got fired the Packers are a better team. That is 100% WRRRRROOOOOOONG. Now that the Packers got that coach firing win past them they will come back to earth and prove to the world that they still have many of the same personnel and locker room problems that they have had in the past. When it comes to defensive efficiency, there is no D like the bears this year. Mitch Trubisky knows that the Bears won last week in spite of some of his mistakes and he will be better this week. I am going with the ANGRY BEARS

Bears -5.5

LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs -3.5

This line smells and it is a total trap game. Teams tend to not play well after going overtime the week before and especially on a short week. It was also clear that the Chargers were looking ahead to this game. Both teams have some major running back woes over the last few weeks.

Bets that I will be on is the Vikings for their offensive coordinator getting fired but waiting for the line to get below 7

NO PLAY and lean to the under 53.5

Teaser: I call this the home dog and don’t let your coach get fired teaser. Carolina Panthers to +12 and the New York Jets to +12.5

NCAA and NFL Sharp Action Report 12/14/18

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

December 14, 2018

North Texas +11 to +7.5 vs Utah State was a sharp side but has been over steamed down to a pretty low number

FIU +6 to +5.5 vs Toledo remains sharp

BYU -12 vs Western Michigan remains Sharp

Houston +5 to +3 vs Army is a sharp side

Boston College +3 vs Boise State is a sharp side

Baylor +6.5 to +3.5 vs Vanderbilt remains sharp

Purdue +5 to +3.5 vs Auburn is sharp

Syracuse +7 to +1.5 vs West Virginia was the move when Will Greer announced he will not be playing in the bowl game.

Iowa State +6.5 to +3.5 vs Washington State remains sharp

Some Buy back on Florida +7.5 vs Michigan

Virginia Tech +6.5 to +5 vs Cincinnati

Northwestern +7 vs Utah is gaining interest

Mississippi State -5 to -7 vs Iowa – I disagree and will tell you right now that I will be on Iowa

Sharp Totals:

Appalachian State vs Middle Tennessee under 50

Houston vs Army under 67.5 to 60 was a huge move and I still think there is value there

Boston College vs Boise State over 55.5

Cal vs TCU under 41.5 a 48% difference. Wow that is big for a low number

Dual action on Wisconsin vs Miami under 48 – 99% of the money on the under

West Virginia vs Syracuse Under 74 to 68 cause of Will Grier

Stanford vs Pitt over 52

Dual Action on NC State vs Texas A & M over 58.5

Sharp NFL:

Indianapolis -2.5 hosting Dallas

Buffalo PK to -2.5 Hosting Detroit

Arizona +9 at Atlanta

San Francisco +7 to +4.5 vs Seattle

Philadelphia +9.5 at LA

Carolina +7 to +6 hosting New Orleans

Sharp NFL totals:

Houston vs NY Jets under 41.5

Dallas vs Indianapolis under 47

Dual Action on Bears vs Packers under 46.5 to 45

Philadelphia vs LA under 53.5

Podcast 65 – 18 – College Football Bowl Season Plays December 18 – 21 – NFL Week 15 Picks – Sharp Line Movements – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

December 13, 2018

We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil discusses the next set of bowl games with some plays and some leans. We then get into more Sharp Line Movement in the NCAA and the NFL. Cub Fan Danny @cubfandanny then comes in to break down some NFL Plays for week 15! We also spoke a bit about the state of the Vikings after the firing of John DeFilippo.

College: San Diego State vs Ohio – UAB vs North Illinois – Florida International vs Toledo and more!

NFL: Green Bay vs Chicago – NY Jets vs Houston – Cleveland vs Denver – Philadelphia vs LA Rams and more!

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Sports Betting & Wagering

College Bowls December 15th Picks – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

December 12, 2018

Auto-nation Cure Bowl in Orlando Florida – Tulane vs Louisiana +3.5 O/U 59

Well here we go right out of the gates here with a game between an option team in Tulane with a decent defense against a high powered Louisiana offense at 6.7 yards per play with a very bad defense. The reason that you see a spread of 3.5 is because of the fact that Louisiana plays in the Sun belt which is looked at as less of a conference and the Ragin Cajun’s defense should allow Tulane to almost score at will giving up 6.4 yards per play. Now we said this about the Sun Belt and how they all sucked last year and then they of course went ahead and went 5-0 in bowl games upsetting the hell out of teams. Being that Tulane also gives up a healthy 5.6 yards per play I really do not think Louisiana will be short of any points here. One would think that Louisiana isn’t the better running team against an option team but they do average 5.7 yards per rush over 4.6 for Tulane. I like the fact that the Ragin Cajuns have about 2 weeks to prepare for this team. I really can’t bet the over in good conscious when Louisiana ranks 115th in plays per game and Tulane ranks 70th but i’ll take the hook.

Louisiana +3.5 and lean over 59

New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque NM – N Texas vs Utah State -9 O/U 66.5

So this spread was at 11 and sharp money hit the N Texas side due to Utah State’s coach Matt Wells going to Texas Tech and will not be coaching the bowl game. For a while some people were calling this Utah State team the best group of 5 team, but in my opinion, that Michigan State close loss isn’t really looking quite as good at the end of the season. Now Utah State was a very nice team to bet on at 9-3 ATS this year and led by a very good quarterback Jordan Love but looking at their schedule I believe it was pretty easy. North Texas on the other hand is in an inferior division (or supposed to be) and hasn’t even played a ranked team so you can’t exactly give them much there. Both of these teams are pretty equal on defense allowing 5.1-ish yards per play but Utah state has the slight edge on offense at 6.9 yards per play over 6.4. Power ratings have Utah State by 10 but I think this bowl game could be a bit closer that that due to losing Matt Wells and facing a motivated team.

Lean N Texas +9

The Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas NV – Arizona State vs Fresno State -4.5 O/U 53.5

You play to win the game! Right Hermy? Well Herm Edwards has done a fantastic job this year going 7-5 straight up as well as 7-5 ATS. Nobody thought this team would be in the mix this year for the Pac 12 south and they just missed making it in losing to Oregon by 2 points. ASU is well coached and they have a solid defense allowing only 4.6 yards per play. Their offense isn’t too shabby either. Fresno State on the other hand also had an amazing season sealing the Mountain West championship and cashing our 6-1 ticket. AT 9-4 against the spread this team was very under appreciated. I am actually surprised that Jeff Tedford hasn’t gotten any big offers from power 5 schools. Fresno State has a very solid offense at 6.2 yards per play and a similar defense to ASU allowing 4.7 yards per play. Now the big news here to ASU that hit them pretty hard was that N’Keal Harry isn’t going to play this game and hold out for the NFL draft. Harry was the Sun Devil’s best WR by far with over 1000 receiving yards. This is definitely a big hit to this team but I also think the spread too big at -4.5 being that ASU had a harder strength of schedule. The only ranked team that Fresno State played is Boise State and they went 1-1 this year against them. I am going to watch this spread go up and up and most likely take ASU.

Strong Lean to ASU+4.5

The Camellia Bowl, Montgomery Alabama – Eastern Michigan vs Georgia Southern -1 O/U 47.5

All I have to say is “Go Eagles!” So I do not understand this line so much. I think it is more because of the bias against the Sun Belt honestly. My Power ratings have Georgia Southern as a 2.5 favorite and Sagarin has them as a 1 pointer. I must be wrong right? Well what I am definitely not wrong about is not too many people from Michigan are excited to go to Montgomery Alabama for a bowl game and I am also sure of the fact that Georgia Southern is only a little 4.5 hour drive away. I am also sure that Eastern Michigan is great against the pass in beating Purdue, Toledo and keeping up with Buffalo this year but they are bad against the run giving up 4.4 yards per carry losing to San Diego State, Northern Illinois and another option team Army by 15 points. The Georgia Southern Eagles this year average 5.3 on the ground and should be able to run all over this team.

Georgia Southern -1

New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans LA – Middle Tennessee St vs Appalachian State -7 O/U 50.5

Ok, this line got bet a bit down due to a few things. Scott Satterfield is moving on from Appalachian State to Louisville and this is Brent Stockstill’s last game playing for his dad at Middle Tennessee State. Now this line is also about perception here. Like I said before, the Sun belt hasn’t been getting the props it deserves and I think that it is WROOOOOOONG. The Mountaineers have played great against passing teams such as Arkansas State, LA Lafayette, and of course taking Penn State down to the wire. This team’s only weak spot is against the run. Did I mention that the Blue Raiders are not a polished running team? The Blue Raiders also only average 5.5 yards per play on offense to the Mountaineers 6.4. The Mountaineers also are much better on D allowing 4.3 yards per play to 5.4. This is a full 1 net yard per play difference and it will come up big in this game. Now I know that there is an interim coach for the Mountaineers and his Name is Mark Ivy. He has been with the Organization for 7 years now and I do not think the players will all of a sudden take a dive because of him. There is no real home field advantage in this bowl for anyone so I am going against the motivational narrative for the Blue Raiders and lean Appalachian State -7

Lean Appalachian State -7

Fantasy Football Week 15

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

December 12, 2018

Great Performances:

Derek Henry 238 yards and 4 TDs. 51 Fantasy Points

Amari Cooper – 3 TDs and 217 Yards

Tom Brady – 3 Tds

George Kittle 210 yards and 1 TD

Brett Maher K – 62 yarder and 13 points

Dak Prescott, JuJu smith Schuster – Saquon Barkley, Ryan Tannehill, Andrew Luck, Julio Jones, Eli Manning

Busts that lost your league:

Michael Crabtree 2 points, Gus Edwards 6 points, Todd Gurley about 7 points, Jared Goff -3.9 points, Cam Newton 0 Tds, David Johnson 0 Tds, Phillip Rivers 1 TD, Antonio Brown 6 points. Odell Beckham was a late scratch that had to burn some folks especially this week.

Key Injuries:

Ben Roethlisberger QB – Shoulder but should be ok

Lamar Jackson QB – Banged up but should be ok

LeShawn McCoy RB – Hammy

Chris Ivory RB – Arm

Jordan Reed TE – Sprained Foot week to week

Austin Eckler RB – Stinger

Tyreke Hill WR – Foot but probable

Waiver Wire:

Chris Ivory RB – Depends on his status and McCoys

Marcus Murphy RB – Depends on Ivory’s Status if McCoy out

Kelvin Benjamin WR – If Tyreke HIll is going to miss time

Chris Conley WR – If Tyreke Hill will miss time

Derek Henry RB – Only owned in 59% of leauges

Josh Johnson QB – Announced as Redskins Starter

Kenny Stills WR – Only owned in 31% of Leagues

Robert Foster WR – Had 8 Targets for the Bills

Kenneth Dixon RB – With Edwards kinda banged up he got a TD

Justin Jackson RB – If Gordon and Eckler can’t go

Zach Zenner RB – Lions

Elija McGuire Rb – Jets

Breakout Players:

Jared cook TE vs the Bengals D

Chris Conley WR vs the Chargers

Nick Chubb RB vs Denver’s bad run D

John Ross WR vs the Raiders Let Down Spot

Dalvin Cook RB vs Miami

Robert Foster WR – Bills

Josh Reynolds WR vs The Eagles

Nasty Sleeper Josh Reynolds

Tuesday NBA Free play

By

557355

-

December 11, 2018

Tonight Toronto starts their west coast road trip in Los Angeles against the Clippers. Both teams come in struggling a bit offensively. Clippers have been dealing with injury and are playing for the 2nd night in a row. The over is 3-1 when Clips play back to back, But I’m not seeing it hit tonight. Lou Williams is questionable tonight & on the other side Lowry has been ineffective lately and didn’t score sunday against the Bucks. These teams definitely have the ability to score but I see a lack of offensive efficiency being the key to this under hitting, as Ive said before teams are best on their 1st game of a trip and Raptors D will help us stay under.

Today’s free play: Raptors/Clippers under 221

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS

Podcast 64 – 18 – NFL week 14 Recap – College Bowls December 15th Plays – Fantasy Football Week 15 Playoffs

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

December 11, 2018

Sports Betting and Wagering

6-3 in the NFL and today we break down last week’s games. The College football bowl games are rolling and we give you our December 15th free plays!! D-Nasty then comes in to break down Fantasy Football week 15. Week 14 Booms and Busts, Key injuries, waivers and break out players.

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.comPodcast 64 – 18 – NFL week 14 Recap – College Bowls December 15th Plays – Fantasy Football Week 15 Playoffs

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Sports Betting & WageringAudio Player

NFL Week 14 play – Sports Betting ATS

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

December 10, 2018

Minnesota vs Seattle -3

So here is a situation where it is a must win for both teams. Now it is even more of a must win for Minnesota because they are even in more danger than Seattle for missing the playoffs this year. The Seahawks at least know that they play 49ers and Cardinals again while getting the Chiefs at home. What is glaring to me is that Seattle really hasn’t faced that hard of an NFC west schedule this year with the 49ers and Cardinals so down. They also got to play the Raiders and the Lions. Now I love Russell Wilson and all but we must not forget that this team lost a ton from last year and this year they had to out score their opponents ton win. The Vikings have had some major injuries with Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr and Xavier Rhodes out. Well now all these guys are healthy. The Vikings defense is better than the Seahawks defense and I expect it to travel well this week. I also like the fact that they just played a great offense in the Patriots with Dalvin Cook showing signs of speed again. The wrong team is favored here.

Vikings +3 and ml Sprinkle

UFC 231 – From Cub Fan Danny

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

December 8, 2018

Main event

Max Holloway Vs Brian Ortega

Quick backstory, Holloway was supposed to fight Frankie Edgar for the title last march and ended up with a leg injury so he pulled out. Frankie could have sat and waited to get his title shot but he took the fight against Ortega. Ortega hit him with a huge uppercut and KO’ed the Legend Frankie Edgar.

That set up a fight between Max and Ortega in the summer. Some of you might remember leading up to the fight there was something wrong with Max Holloway, it turned out he had concussion symptoms and the fight was cancelled a few days before. Ortega had a chance to step up and fight someone just like Frankie did with him but he refused every offer. My question is why did he refuse? He wanted the title shot? Scared of something happening with injury? Maybe losing like Frankie did to him and lose his title shot?

So here we go let me break down these fighters.

Max Hollow is such a fun fighter to watch. He loves to stand and bang against everyone. He is really fluid, very accurate and his punches are all solid. Moves in and out sticks and moves a very smart fighter on his feet. He can be a little unorthodox with the way he holds his hands up not letting his opponent know where the next shot is coming from. He moves his arms a lot.

He has fought the best of the best. He just turned 27 and has been in the UFC for a long time gaining some very valuable experience against elite competition. Let me tell you some of these names.

Dustin Poirier, Dennis Bermudez, Conor McGregor, a younger Cub Swanson, Charles Oliveria, Jeremy Stephens, Ricaro Lamas Anthony Pettis, Jose Aldo twice. All of these guys are the top of the top in the UFC.

Max does not have the best BJJ, it is average at best but he has always held his own because he is a fighter. Going up against what some consider to be the best JuJitsu fighter in the UFC he has to stay away and has to keep doing what he always does and use his standup to breakdown Ortega.

Brian Ortega

I love this guy as a fighter, he is a 145lb fighter but he just looks bigger than 145lbs. He looks like he is 170lb fighter. His Jiujitsu is off the charts and like I mentioned before everyone remembers Frankie getting uppercutted so hard he came off his feet. That was amazing to see.

His standup game is average for an MMA fighter but where he gets his super powers is from his BJJ. He hasn’t fought the best competition in the MMA especially the guys he fought are mostly past their prime.

In his last fightbefore Edgar he went against Cub Swanson. Cub dominated Ortega with his standupbut he ended up getting caught up close and put in a standing guillotine chokeat the end of the round. That took a lotout of Cub and when the second round came you would have thought his experiencewould have not let him get caught again with that, well he did.

Ortega needs to get this fight in close and get Holloway to the ground and wear Max out. He will win this fight on the ground and not standing like he did Frankie.

Money has been coming in on Ortega last week Ortega was at +100 and -130 for Max today the line is

-105 with Ortega and Max at -125.

Now who do I like? I am going with experience, I am going with a devastating stand up game and I am going with the Champ Max Holloway. This fight will end 4^th round or after.

Valentiana Shevencko vs Joanna Jedrejczyk

This fight is opened at Joanna at +255 and Valentina at -335

Right now this fight is at +275 Joanna and -365 on Valentina.

This is a brand new weight class for woman’s MMA it is the Flyweight Division, 125lbs.

Everyone knows Joanna. She was the Champ at 115 and used her speed and standup to take out by winning decisions over and over again. She really made everyone look bad in her weight class. Here comes her fight against Rose Namajuans. She was going to bully Rose into being scared of her well, it didn’t happen. She got hit hard in the first round and was getting pounded on the ground and tapped. She tapped from strikes. You never see someone tap from strikes. She gets her rematch against rose and loses again but this time a unanimous decision.

She did say that her weight cuts down to 115 where brutal and 125 is where she should be so now she is going up in weight. This will help her with her power but can slow her down a little with her striking.

Valentina is the best womans fighter that no one talks about. He standup game is on point and powerful. She was at 135 and and fought your favorite girl Amanda Nunes twice, first time it was a unanimous loss second time it was a split decision but in my eyes she beat Amanda.

Her standup game is so technical and has major power in her hands she is also very strong and is almost impossible to get her off you once she has you on the ground. Dropping down to 125 from 135 is going to be a major problem for everyone in that division and you can see with the spread with this fight.

The play here is for Valentina to win this fight inside the distance. What makes it hard to say right now is how, will it be a KO TKO or a submission? I will be taking Valentina inside the distance, I am leaning more towards a submission victory simply because she is going to wear out Joanna early in the fight.

Alex Olivera Vs Gunnar Nelson

Alex is coming in as an underdog as of right now +110

Alex has some very impressive wins he is very long and strong. Has very good power and can end a fight very very fast. He has very good cardio and likes to fight on the outside but can go to the ground and hold his own but he needs to keep this fight on his feet. His kicks are absolutely killer and drains fighters. He can get in trouble if the fight gets to the ground early. What I like about Oliveria is his fights end before the 3 rounds are up. His fights are Submission or TKO he will take someone out. Such a fun fighter to watch.

Gunnar Nelson

Took a brutal loss in 2017 and hasn’t fought since. He was coming off two performance of the nights before the loss and has 4 total performance of the nights which is a high honor when fighting MMA. His ground game is on point as he is a champion with BJJ tournaments.

When he fights he has a Karate stance, very wide and bang hits you. He will not want to throw with Olivera he is going to try and take him down. If he tries to stand and throw with Olivera he is in trouble.

Right now this fight is sitting at +110 Olivera and -135 Gunnar Nelson.

I like Olivera here in this fight. He is going to keep this fight standing and when Gunnar comes forward he will hit him with a knee.

You can get plus money on Olivera now but if you want you can also get even better odds with Oliveria ending this within the distance.

Couple of Quick bangers here

Eryk Anders and Elias Theodorou.

Right now you can get Anders at even or plus money depending on where you shop and Elias at -125

Elias might be the most boring fighter in the UFC every fight is a decision. He wants to grind you and win on points no power. 9 fights in the UFC 7 went to judges and 5-2 in those fights.

Anders is as strong as an OX. He was an up and comer a brawler lost 2 out of three. He is dropping in weight so do your research and find out how is weight cut went. If there aren’t any issues with his weigh cut this is very good value.

NBA Saturday Free Play

By

557355

-

December 8, 2018

Trae Young will show off his abilities Saturday night against a newly emerged powerhouse Denver Nuggets. Both teams coming off losses last night. Atlanta’s continued a streak of 3 and Denver’s snapped a 7 game win streak, I’m looking at the total here. Paul Millsap was hurt last night in Charlotte; Denver has efficient O and Suffocating D. I’m thinking they slow it down on O and try to take Young out of the game on D. These two teams combined are 0-6 Ov/Un on No rest. I think well see a lack of Offense here as Denver shot very poorly last night and may be fatigued closing out their Road trip & missing a key piece.
Saturday free play: Nuggets/Hawks under 224

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS