First Half Free Play

By

-

February 15, 2019

I encourage you to take a look at a first half ATS play in the St. Joe’s Davidson matchup. Currently, Davidson is a 10 point favorite and the first half line has them favored by 5.5.

St. Joe’s comes into conference play ranking 12th in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Davidson has the 3rd ranked offensive efficiency in the conference and ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency. This alone should make Davidson look attractive. Add to those mismatches the fact that St. Joe’s inefficient offense has 5th fasted average possession length (tempo) and Davidson ranking 12th in the same category, I think you have a great combination of formulas that translates to St. Joe’s getting minimal FG opportunities, not converting them, and being unable to stop Davidson from scoring.

Comparing tempo with offensive efficiency isn’t the end of the handicap here. I took a look at raw scoring numbers in the first half and compared them from a road/home split perspective. St. Joe’s averages 30 points on the road in the first half. Davidson holds opponents to 30 points at home in the first half. Statistically similar numbers gains my confidence in their predictability. Conversely, St. Joe’s is surrendering 39 ppg on the road, and Davidson is averaging 37 ppg at home. Add the efficiency and tempo statistics to these stats, I believe there is a reason to predict that Davidson is likely to score near or higher than St. Joe’s defensive road points against. Averaging the two, we have a potential that Davidson is up by around 8 points at the half, making the 5.5 number attractive.

I like the first half play tonight because I think that Davidson has the right combination to get up early in this game. Second half adjustments, or big leads turning into minimal motivation, mixed with a Friday night low-key game, the first half appears more attractive to me than the full game.

PLAY: Davidson -5.5 First Half

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays. Free plays via Oddsbreakers are on a wonderfully profitable streak, and I hope you are enjoying!

Podcast 10 – 19 – Wagering The Weekend with Kelly Stewart – College Basketball Plays February 15th – 16th – Sports Betting

By

Kiev O'Neil

-

February 15, 2019

Sports Betting - The OddsBreakers - Wagering - Handicapping

We have a fantastic show for the weekend! We first start with Kiev’s big 10 rankings. Professional host and handicapper from Wagertalk.com and @cbssportshq Kelly Stewart @kellyinvegas is back for some weekend action! We first talk a little bit about that tough beat she had on a 3 leg moneyline dog parlay that was going to hit up until the very last seconds of the Duke/Louisville game. We also discuss Kelly’s part in the new Showtime docuseries called “Action” coming out this spring on March 24th during #marchmadness! Then we get into Kelly’s Alma-mater K-State and their Big 12 dominance this year. Finally we get into some of the games from a huge card this weekend. Kiev then ends the show with his own ugly dog money-line parlay for Saturday. Have a great weekend everyone!

NCAA: Buffalo vs Toledo, Oklahoma vs TCU, Indiana vs Minnesota, Iowa State vs Kansas State, West Virginia vs Kansas and Tennessee vs Kentucky!

Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.

www.theoddsbreakers.com

For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a monmth please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377

Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers

Reddit: r/the-odds-breakers
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/theoddsbreakers/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/theoddsbreakers

Sports Betting & Wagering

NBA Full Card

By

557355

-

February 14, 2019

Last day until the All Star Break, I got you some big plays tonight! We’re going to start with the host city, the Hornets are traveling to Orlando before heading back to the Queen City to host All Star Weekend, I’m ready for that to say the least. The over is my favorite play of the day these two will be able light it up, might even go to overtime. With that being said the Hornets have haunted the Magic, they’re red hot and will be more motivated in this spot. Hornets could be a little distracted and Clifford won’t show mercy on his former squad.

New Orleans host OKC tonight, my feeling is that the Pels have no motivation to win. AD looks ordinary, not sure if thats on purpose or lack of focus and desire to perform for a city that’s going to Boo him as they see him out.

Plays:

Magic/Hornets over 214.5

Magic -3

OKC -5

OKC/NOLA Under 236

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS

AAC UNDER With a Fishy Total

By

CoverTheProfit

-

February 14, 2019

Take a look at the total in the Tulsa/Tulane matchup tonight. I like to look at the Game Center to keep an eye on market movements. This total opened at 140. Then, out of God knows where, it jumps to 147 with no bets on the OVER. This is what got my attention.

Then, when I take a look at the match-up and score projection engines who have algorithyms for scoring/tempo, I am seeing a lot of high 130’s. My own scoring system has this as a 140-142 pt game tonight from a raw numbers standpoint. Then, I see that Tulane comes in ranked 315th in the country in offensive efficiency, and in conference posts an offensive efficiency of dead last at 90.5 pts per 100 possessions. Conversely, Tulsa ranks 97th in defensive efficiency and has faced offensive efficiency teams on average ranked 68th in the country.

Both teams play at an above average pace: Tulsa 73rd, and Tulane 106th. But, I don’t think that tempo can get this score up to high 140’s. Take a look at the situational spot here. Tulsa is coming off a big home win where they blew out Temple in surprising fashion. The only reason I am not laying the points with Tulsa against Tulane is for that reason. Tulane has Houston on deck on Sunday. They have broken 70 pts three times since mid December. Tulsa’s defensive points allowed may throw you off a bit here, but their recent matchups have been Wichita State, Memphis, Houston, Cincinnati and UConn where they have had spotty defense.

I like our chances under 147 tonight.

PLAY: TULSA/TULANE under 147

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays, including many live betting play selections. +40 units in the last 7 days in all sports.

NBA Premium Plays 2/13/19

By

557355

-

February 13, 2019

We’ve got a few Premium quality plays available tonight

Pacers just aren’t a match for Milwaukee, the fact that they’re on a 7 game win streak leads me to believe they’ll fall well short tonight vs a tough matchup maybe the toughest in the east

Bucks -4.5

Boston Players have said that they enjoy their roles better without Kyrie, its a back to back but the all star break is on the other side and Detroit isn’t good.

Celtics -4

Harden will play & look to extend his streak, Minnesota can play but short handed; can they score enough to keep pace with Houston? I dont think so.

Rockets -4

NBA free play

By

557355

-

February 13, 2019

We only have a couple more days left until the all star break. So why not turn our attention to the traveling all stars (Warriors). They travel to Portland on a tear, 11 wins in a row, 17 of 18. To say the least they’ve found a groove, without Boogie preforming at his highest capability. Portland has struggled losing the last 3, and will look to turn it around before the break. I feel like Golden State is dialed in and will want to end the 1st half strong, theyve struggled in 1st quarters lately but so Portland 1st quarter is worth a look. I think a one possession number is valuable when this team is clicking, its not your typical back to back; A lot of these guys are getting a break so they’ll be ready.
Pick: Warriors -3

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS

Get On The ATS Train With Sam Houston State

By

CoverTheProfit

-

February 13, 2019

If you have bet Sam Houston State with your eyes closed this season, you have profited handsomely. They roll into Texas A&M Corpus Christi (TAM-CC) as 4 point favorites. They are 18-3 ATS this season, 11-0 in conference play, 11-2 on the road. The last time they didn’t cover was December 1, 2018! TAM-CC is 3-5 ATS at home and 4-6 in conference play. I could probably just end it here, but I will give some other nuggets that support the play:

In the last 2 weeks of play, they are averaging 87 ppg, with great point distribution on the court, having two guards average double digits and their center averaging double digits. TAM-CC relies heavily on scoring from primarily one player, Kareem South, a guard averaging 37 min per game, and 19.67 ppg over the last two weeks. TAM-CC ranks 305th in adjusted offensive efficiency having played less efficient defenses (165th) than Sam Houston State’s adjusted defensive efficiency rank of 127.

One of Sam Houston State’s offensive strengths is the fact that they rank 41st in the country in 3-point distribution, also a key weakness in TAM-CC’s defense, ranking 292nd.

My blended power rating has Sam Houston State -8.

PLAY: Sam Houston State -4.

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.

NBA Under – Free Pick

By

CoverTheProfit

-

February 12, 2019

I am recommending that you consider playing under 226 in New Orleans tonight as they face off against Orlando. At first glance, seeing New Orleans averaging 113 ppg on the season and some of their high scoring match-ups might make you question. Here are some reasons why I like the Under at 226:

New Orleans is only 3-7 SU last 10 games. L3 H2H, the totals have averaged 212 and unders went 2-1. L10 H2H, the totals average 194 and Under is 8-2. NO Unders have cashed in 4 of last 6 games, and 9 of last 13 against Orlando, 4 of last 5 at home against Orlando. Against tougher defenses, NO has shown it can’t score near it’s statistical season average. New Orleans is playing its 3rd game in 5 days. New Orleans unders are 16-13 when they are a favorite, and 4-1 against Southeast Division opponents.

Orlando is surrendering 106 ppg on the road this season, holding opponents to 45.18 FG% and has held opponents to 101 L3 games. The Under is 20-13 in conference play for Orlando and 17-12 on the road this season. Orlando has some recent standout defensive performances, holding opponents to low totals, such as: Atlanta 108, Milwaukee 83 (sans Jannis), Brooklyn 89, Houston 103, Washington 95. These games all occurred since January 25th. Orlando road totals average 209 on the season and they have held opponents to 104.8 ppg L5.

Play: ORL/NOR Under 226 ; lean NOR team total under 115.5

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.

NHL FULL CARD – FREE

By

CoverTheProfit

-

February 12, 2019

I am sharing my NHL card for tonight with all of you as free plays. While some of them have some juice, if you follow NHL betting you are seeing first period OVER 1.5’s cashing at a high rate. There are a couple of match-ups tonight that I think are prime for at least 2 first period goals, and like many others, I am not afraid to risk some juice here. Some may not agree with this betting strategy, and from a long term betting philosophy standpoint, I whole-heartedly agree. However, I like to dabble with the first period angles from time to time.

Columbus First Period ML -145 – Washington comes in fat and happy off a big win by a big margin last night against Los Angeles. I like to fade teams in the first period on back to back nights involving travel who are playing winning teams.

Chicago/Boston First Period Over 1.5 – 160 – Chicago first period overs have been cashing at a very decent rate. Chicago is playing lights out offensively and they have struggled stopping the puck on defense.

Calgary/Tampa Bay First Period Over 1.5 -190 – This play goes without saying and is by far the juiciest I have ever played. But, I have confidence in this play selection. Calgary games average 3 goals in the first period over the L5 games and tonight they face Tampa Bay on the road.

Carolina/Ottawa Over 6 -125 – Ottawa is solid offensively at home and Carolina comes in as a very efficient offense. Over has cashed 4 of last 6 times when Carolina has traveled to Ottawa.

St. Louis First Period -0.5 +125 AND New Jersey/St. Louis First Period Over 1.5 -125 – I also like to fade struggling teams on the road against superior teams, most notably teams who have solid L5 offensive performances. St. Louis fits this mold tonight, outscoring opponents in the first period 5-1 in the last five match ups against much stiffer competition. New Jersey, on the other hand, has a -10 goal scoring margin on the road this season over 27 games and averages 1.33 goals surrendered on the road on the season.

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.

San Diego State Matches Up Well Tonight

By

CoverTheProfit

-

February 12, 2019

San Diego State travels to Colorado State tonight as a 2 point favorite. I am recommending a play tonight with San Diego State as a short road favorite. From purely a matchup standpoint, much of Colorado State’s offensive production comes from 2 pt baskets down low from Junior, 6-11 Center, Nico Carvacho. He is on the floor 78% over the course of the season and 84% recently. Much of their offense runs through either he or JD Paige.

SDSU deploys two 5’s, standing at 6-9 and 6-11 with big frames who share time 65/30. Additionally, their top rebounder, Jalen McDaniels, typically plays the 4 and matches up athletically and height wise (standing at 6-10). SDSU wins the both the offensive and defensive rebound battle (OFF Rebound Rank: SDSU/118, CSU/293) in stat comparisons here and there is a significant advantage in defensive efficiency. More bodies in the post who taller than an opponents’ bodies, coupled with a significant offensive rebound advantage, leads to second chance points with high efficiency FG% numbers. CSU ranks 300th in defensive FG% efficiency, and SDSU ranks 135th in offensive FG efficiency.

I look for SDSU to attempt to get Carvacho in foul trouble early, and if they can, they have neutralized Colorado State’s primary source of offensive production. That leaves JD Paige, their only other double digit scorer, to pick up the pieces. I don’t think that can get the job done tonight where SDSU has two guards, Watson and Hemsley, who both average double digits and match up well against Paige. Carvacho’s presence is key for Colorado State, but SDSU wins the average height comparison, ranked 59th in the country compared to 241st for CSU.

When I looked at my blended power rating lines for this matchup, I have SDSU -4.8 tonight. Colorado State ranks 301st in defensive efficiency and with 3 guys scoring double digits for SDSU, I don’t see how CSU can win here tonight, and the short number tells me there is value enough to make a play.

PLAY: SDSU -2

Follow me on twitter @CoverProfit for other content and free plays.