The Big 10 starts early once again with a few games slapped right in the middle of non-conference play. These 2 teams hate each other and it goes deeper than just rivalries, it is also about Family. Jordan Bohannon’s brother Jason Bohannon threw Iowa a curve ball back in 2005 and went to play Basketball at Wisconsin and became a huge part of some deep tournament runs. Jordan is playing with a chip on his shoulder whenever he plays the Badgers to show his state that he can be a difference maker. Last year in Iowa, the Hawkeyes beat the Badgers 85-67 and now Wisconsin is looking for revenge. Now this Wisconsin team is no longer just that defensive juggernaut that we once knew. Wisconsin ranks 17th in adjusted offensive efficiency at Kenpom with Iowa not far behind at 21. Wisconsin also ranks 8th in 3 point percentage on the road making this look like rain will be in the forecast at Carver Hawkeye arena. Iowa on the other hand ranks 21st in total Points at 85.3 per game. The Hawkeye’s also play pretty fast and being at home they should be able to control the Tempo. Now this game opened at pickem and has been bet up to Wisconsin -2 so as you can see, this game has a shot at going OT. My numbers have Wisconsin -1 so a slight lean to Iowa in this situation. Even with Wisconsin having a top 9 defense, I see a shootout happening once again in Iowa City and I love the over 142.
It finally happened, we took our 1st Loss on a NBA Total with Bucks and Bulls going over the line closed at 230 and total finished at 229, I gave out under 228 some of you might of been able to Cash; now 8-1 on Free Play totals on the year. Didn’t see much yesterday but we’re back today with a solid play. Tonight the red hot Denver Nuggets head to Portland to take on Damian Lillard and the Trail Blazers. Portland is laying 2 and the total is 214. Denver has won 4 straight and are rolling through the 1st quarter of the season, Defense and Nikola Jokic (16.4 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 7.1 apg) are the key for the Nuggets. Jamal Murray is a key 2 way player and will have his hands full with Lillard.
I’m going with the under here, Nuggets are top notch defensively and bring it on the road. While they average two more points allowed on the road as oppose to at home, they average 9 less points scored offensively on the road. I think Denver keeps it rolling here and proves it nationally, defense will be the key to their success once again.
Well this game falls about right where my Power ratings line up but we have to look here at the situation. In Urban Meyer’s mind he thinks that if they do not blow out the Wildcats and for some reason if Oklahoma does blow out Texas, they may not make it to the national championship playoffs. Urban Meyer is instilling this into the minds of his players. Now Northwestern was a solid team this year who caught people buy surprise and it worked out quite well BUT there is something very strange about them. They must be the luckiest team in the league because they only average 4.6 yards per play on offense and they give up 5.5 on defense. I have never seen anything like this. Playing for the Big 10 conference championship with a -.9 net yards per play. Netted against Ohio State’s 6.7 on offense and 5.8 yards per play on D, the Buckeye’s also have a .9 yards per play advantage. Ohio State is only second to Oklahoma in yards per game at 544 and they can turn their defense up when needed. Northwestern’s run game doesn’t really have any misdirection or anything special and will look similar to Michigan’s last week. This game reminds me of the 2014 situation where the Buckeye’s blew out Wisconsin by 50 to later become national champions.
Ohio State -13.5
Northern Illinois vs Buffalo -3.5 O/U 49
Now you know from our last podcasts that we need Buffalo to win this game and now winning by just 3 would be absolutely perfect but we also have a total play here. This game is pretty much NIU’s great defense vs Buffalo’s great offense. Buffalo is great at running the ball with Jarrett Patterson, passing with Tyreke Jackson to Anthony Johnson and stopping the pass. Their only weakness is stopping the run. Northern Illinois on the other hand Can run the ball half way decent and can stop everything but they can’t pass the ball well. So what wins out? There is sharp money on NIU because normally the run games wins and they keep the ball out of the passing teams hands. Well that is very possible but I think that Lance Leopold has seen this before and should be able to stack the box. NIU only averages 4.1 yards per rush which is on the lower side. I think this is a live betting situation personally and maybe bet on the team that scores first. What I do like is the over here because even if NIU happens to score a few times, Buffalo will get more one dimensional and throw the ball more and we know that they can do it well. Lastly my algorithm actually has Buffalo winning by 4 points and the total going to exactly 49.5 but that does not factor in that this game is being played on the turf at Ford Field. This field should benefit the Bulls greatly here and benefit the passing game.
Over 49
Alabama vs Georgia +13.5
Well here we are. The game that we have been waiting for is here. What can one say. This is probably the best Alabama or College Football team in general that I have ever seen. The DeShawn Watson Clemson team of a few years back maybe the one to rival it but they didn’t destroy teams the way Bama did. But I think its important to look at a few things here first before we look at this large spread. Georgia is a top 4 team in my opinion and it is shocking to see this. I have to ask myself, who did Alabama play? Well they shut out the next 2 best SEC teams in LSU and Mississippi State. That should kinda tell you all you need to know right? Especially since Georgia lost outright at LSU right? So the Alabama Mississippi state game would have been a much different game if the officials didn’t botch that last TD with a Phantom block in the back call. Sure Bama still would have won but maybe more like 24-7 or something. Another glaring fact to me is that Alabama hasn’t faced a passing team ranked in the top 30 minus a terrible ole miss team. Bama also hasn’t faced a rushing team other than Mississippi state that’s even ranked in the top 50!!!! Alabama had maybe the easiest non conference schedule’s in the nation. Now they have to face a Georgia team with the same QB as last year in Jake Fromm who is looking for revenge from last years over time championship loss. You know I love revenge spots if its the same QB and coach from the year before. At 6.3 yards per run and a 177 QB rating this Georgia team can be all kinds of dangerous. Bama has the highest variance of 3.6 in their own net yards per play getting 8 on offense and allowing 4.4 on defense but Georgia isn’t too shabby at 7.4 on offense and allowing 4.8 on defense. That is only a .5 net yard per play difference with Georgia having a harder schedule. This game should only be a 9.5 point spread. I have this game 32 to 23 Alabama so I also like the under
Georgia +13.5 and smaller on the under cause i could see some crazy things this game
UAB vs Middle Tennessee State -1
Well we have discussed UAB and how great of a season they have had many times but I think that there is a reason the Blue Raiders are favored in this game. First of all, last week these teams played each other and because Marshall beat FIU, this game all of a sudden became important UAB was playing last week’s game for home field advantage and they ended up losing. Now you have a team in Middle Tennessee State that has healthy Brent Stockstill with a 26-6 TD to Interception ratio completing over 71% of his passes and is playing at home. UAB cannot pass the ball well at all with AJ Erdely having only a 7-7 TD to interception ratio at 56% completion. UAB is also still decimated on the injury report with their top running back Spencer Brown highly questionable this game along with a bunch of O lineman. I think this play is easy when you look at their schedule’s with UAB’s was very easy ranking 137th and Middle Tennessee State was a bit harder ranking 102 due to playing Kentucky, Georgia and Vanderbilt. Last week the Blue Raiders outgained the Blazers 394 to 89 yards. Now it looks like it may thunderstorm with 15mph winds so that somewhat favors UABs running game but I still think with their injuries you have to give it to the Blue Raiders here. If the weather doesn’t hold up then it is a smaller play, if it does than have at it! Brent Stockstill is going to go out on top of conference USA and this game is a no-brainer to me.
Middle Tennessee State -1
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Quick Hitter:
Taking Washington -5 vs Utah – This game is being played in Santa Clara which is feels more like a west coast off the ocean Huskies game. Chris Peterson knows how to play this Utah team who is without their QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zach Moss. Utah has also benefited by playing an easier schedule this year. Utah has a stought defense but Washington’s is even better. This game is Jake Browning’s audition for the NFL.
Texas vs Oklahoma -7.5 No play or lean. Texas has a good D and their QB Sam Ehlinger eats nails for breakfast. Oklahoma needs this bad and its a revenge spot.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil discusses the College Football playoffs as well as the committee. Who is in, who deserves to be in, who should be in and what could happen if Georgia beats Alabama. Then we get into College football championship week free picks and sharp line movements. We then get into some NFL Plays including one for Thursday!
College: Alabama vs Georgia – Ohio State vs Northwestern – UAB vs Middle Tennessee State and more!
NFL: Washington vs Philadelphia – New Orleans vs Dallas – LA Rams vs Detroit and a teaser!
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This game is actually quite simple here. You have 2 lower echelon teams in 2 huge basketball conferences who lost a ton of production from the year before, looking quite average this year and now playing each other (yes that was a run-on sentence). Both the Wildcats and the Yellow Jackets have had their easy tomato can teams that they kicked around and they both had their one loss. Tech lost to Tennessee and Northwestern to Fresno State. Both teams play pretty slow hence the low total at 130. The Wildcat’s have the advantage in points per game at 76 led by Vic Law at 18.5 PPG to the Yellowjacket’s 71 led by Brandon Alston at 13 points per game. Georgia Tech has the slight advantage on defense holding teams to 57 points per game to Northwestern’s 61.
Looking at the rest of the stats it all looks pretty equal and very middle of the road. What does Vegas say? Well 54% of the tickets are on Georgia tech and so is 84% of the money so that pretty much tells you the sharp side. Due to these teams both looking pretty equal and thus having a low total I have to look towards the dog here. This should be more of a 4-5 point spread rather than 7.5
Once a week to show our appreciation we’re going to do a 4 pack of hoops for free. We’ve been on a tear with NBA totals 6-0 on write up plays and 3-0 on Twitter plays. I’ve got 2 NBA totals as well as 2 CBB plays.
We’ll start in College Park with Maryland hosting Virginia in a renewed ACC rivalry. Coaches & Fans of these programs will surely remember being Conference foes. I think that plays to Maryland’s home court advantage, but the number is not going to be big enough UVA laying 3.5 should be an easy cover. I’ve seen it time & time again with this Cavaliers team under Bennett. They just suffocate you with defense, 5 of the top 8 Terrapins are Freshman and I don’t see them holding up. This same UVA team beat up on the Wisconsin Badgers about a week ago in the Bahamas. 1st play: UVA -3.5
Moving on to the next ACC/B10 Challenge matchup, UNC visiting Michigan. Michigan looks like the real deal, 6-0 including a 27 point rout @Villanova. Michigan is much improved defensively allowing 33% shooting and only 48.6 points a game they will look to stop a well balanced Tar Heels attack with 4 guys averaging double figures. I don’t see many advantages either way and I think that’s why we see the line at 3.5. I do think the Tar Heels are a more complete team and have already stumbled, so Roy Williams will have them ready to go. 2nd Play: UNC +3.5
NBA has been busy the last week and there’s been a lot of back to backs. The Knicks have been the busiest team and will play their 6th game in 8 days tonight in Philly. Knicks haven’t shown much efficiency overall this year offensively or defensively (22nd, 26th) even worse in true shooting and effective FG (29th,30th). I think a pretty rested Sixers team will take full advantage and shut the Knicks down early & often. I’m leaning a Philly cover but Love the under. 3rd play: Knicks/Sixers under 228.5
Another game of similar tune. Chicago heading to Milwaukee, Bucks have pretty much been at home the last two weeks and will have their legs under them. Milwaukee has stake their claim as a top Eastern conference contender. Giannis is the best player on the court most night and that won’t be different tonight, I think the Bucks win convincingly but 14 is kind of high for me. 228 is a touch too high, I like Bucks to dominate a Bulls team that is hit or miss on a nightly basis. 4th play: Bulls/Bucks under 228
Well this game is actually similar to the Gonzaga handicap. On the Indiana side you have some great returning production with De’Ron Davis, Zach McRoberts and Juwan Morgan and on the other side you have Duke that has the greatest recruiting class maybe of all time with Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cameron Reddish and Tre Jones. Now Duke is playing at home coming off of a loss and is ready to get back on track. Sounds familiar right? The whole get back up narrative. Well I am not so sure that this narrative comes into fruition against this stellar and hungry Indiana team. If you remember our podcast, we have Indiana as the best team in the big 10 and when they lost to Arkansas, it made this line even sweeter. We have to remember that not only does Indiana have that great returning production and leadership, but they also have top six 5 star recruit themselves in Romeo Langford who has played some pick up ball with some of these Duke guys!
Now Duke has blown out some good teams like Kentucky and San Diego State but when they had to play good defenses such as Auburn and Gonzaga, they seemed to struggle at bit. Auburn ranking 12th in Defense held Duke to 78 points and only lost by 6 while Gonzaga ranking 23rd in defense won outright by 2 points. Indiana ranks 28th in defense and that in itself is a good sign. Let’s dive even deeper. Indiana can shoot the three and for some reason does it very well on the road at 40% success while Duke is only at 33% total. Indiana is also top 18 in defending the 3 only allowing 26.1% while Duke allows 33%. Another glaring thing to me is that Indiana is 2nd in the nation in total Field Goal Percentage at 55% while Duke ranks 71st even with those big guys. Now Duke is 2nd in total rebounds and will need to clean up those misses if they expect to even get close to covering this large spread. I think Indiana’s front court is big enough to gather some of these boards and this should not be a big issue. Now Indiana is turnover prone and ranks 283rd in turnovers per game but they also do very well in forcing turnovers at a positive 3.2 turnover margin. Because of the leadership of Indiana, the defense, and their great shooting percentage, I think this game remains close and Indiana has a shot to win this thing.
Today we break down last weeks games in College football and in the NFL. Then go into hedging our Buffalo 12-1, 6-1 Fresno State and 2.5-1 Memphis Championship tickets. D-Nasty then comes in to break down Fantasy Football week 13. Key injuries, waivers and break out players.
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Happy Sunday Readers! We’ve been red hot over here with NBA Totals so lets keep it rolling. Today we’ll look at Orlando traveling to the Staples center to take on the Lakers. Its a 12:30 Local time tip off. The total sits at 218, I think its a bit too high personally. The Lakers didn’t have much defense earlier in the season and played a lot of overs but not too many came outside the Division. These two teams are a combined 11-19-1 Over-Under in non- divisional matchups. Orlando has played uninspiring offensively since beating the Lakers 130-117. The Lakers are committed to playing defense and wont allow Vucevic to dominate like he did 8 days ago. The formula is there, stop the Pick and roll with Vucevic and make everyone else beat you. I look for a low 100s type game. Lakers/Magic under 218
