Michigan State vs Wisconsin +1 – O/U 128
This game could not have set up more nicely for Wisconsin. Michigan State has been a force in the non conference as well as big 10 play all the way up to the point where Joshua Langford was announced out for the season and then they dropped 3 games in a row against some very inferior teams like Illinois and Indiana. The fact that they were able to bounce back at home against the likes of Minnesota really makes me like this spot for Wisconsin. Michigan State is the best in effective FG percentage, as well as offensive rebounding, second in free throws but they really lack in turnover % and the glaring thing to me is that they really started to struggle when they got into the tougher part of the big 10 schedule. This Spartans team still hasn’t had any of their games vs Michigan and I think their stats may be a bit stale. Wisconsin on the other hand has already played Michigan twice, Maryland twice, Purdue once and is coming off of a good loss where they only had 2 free throw attempts in a let down spot at Michigan. Now Wisconsin isn’t a good rebounding or free throw kind of team but I think where they will get an advantage in this game is Ethan Happ drawing the double team down low kicking it out to all their 3 point shooters such as Trice, Reuvers, Ford and Davison. Wisconsin ranks 2nd in 3 point shooting in the Big 10 and 2nd in turnover percentage. These are 2 key stats for playing at home that can crush a great team. The biggest thing to me is looking at the home/road splits. Wisconsin averages 11 points more at home than on the road while Michigan State averages 11 points less than they do at home on the road. Lastly might be important to remember that Wisconsin has covered the spread against Sparty their last 2 games and that was a very injured Badger team. Wisconsin Rolls.
Wisconsin +1 lean under 128
Purdue vs Maryland +2.5 O/U 141
Just like in football sometimes pace of play doesn’t really tell the whole story. If you look at both of these teams, they are both in the top 3 for slowest play in the big 10 only rivaled by Wisconsin. Let’s dig a little deeper. In most of the games that Maryland played, they were either destroying the teams that they have played or getting destroyed meaning the winning team was running the clock out at the end. Their last 5 games the average margin of victory of the winning team was 13 points. The same applies to Purdue who is the best shooting team in the big 10 having an average margin of victory of 14 points their last 5 games. As a matter of fact, Purdue hasn’t scored under 70 points since January 8th vs Sparty. Purdue averages an amazing 77.5 points per game on the road while Maryland averages 78 at home. Purdue also gives up about 76 on the road while Maryland gives up 68. Looking at this line being so close, it is telling me that there will be some points scored at the end of the game and I would not be surprised if it goes to 150.
Over 141 big and lean Maryland +2.5
