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NBA Free Play 11/24

By
557355
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Its turning up on the gridiron this weekend a few playoff implication type games and while everyone is trying to find that College football steal to bet on, I’ve got a Total for tonights NBA slate I love. In fact, I’ve got 3 more totals I love tonight and anyone who retweets this post from my twitter will get the other 3 DM’d to them.
Lets look at Minnesota vs Chicago, two teams that have shared a few players and coaches that last couple years and D.Rose will look to show out against his hometown team. The total sits at 219, I like the under here. Not very efficient offensively with back to back games after Thanksgiving, this calls for a sluggish offensive output on both sides. Middle of the row pace and neither teams shooting well I’m looking for a game barely in the 100s. Both teams are combined 4-9 Ov-Un in non conference play, Chicago is 0-3 with no rest.
Im also leaning the Bulls +10.5
Free Play of the day: Minnesota/Chicago under 219.

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS
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Wk 13 College Football Analytics Projections

By
Alan Cashman
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Alan Cashman

Follow me on Twitter  https://twitter.com/TheCashManWins

For those of you who are new to following me, I have a set of Analytics I use to compare my data with.  I track their game projections as well in an effort to find my followers/subscribers another edge.  These are included with any subscription.

Here are the Analytics Projections for Wk 13 College Football.  If there are any games you would like run through my Analytics, Follow and @ me on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheCashManWins

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YJRAq_SJXhIPeE4iqAK6YZLXBdD3eKt_pgoA5F-IFLM/edit?usp=sharing

Alan Cashman’s Saturday College Football Pick: Minnesota at Wisconsin

By
Alan Cashman
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Alan Cashman

https://twitter.com/TheCashManWins

Saturday

CFB

Minnesota at Wisconsin

Pick: Wisconsin -10/Lean (bought ½ from -10.5)

Analytics Agree: Unanimous

 

All 5 of my Analytics that I compare info with agree with this projected outcome.

Minnesota is averaging 21 ppg and allowing 45 ppg on the road this season while Wisconsin scores 36.8 and allows 17 ppg at home.

Minnesota has been a good team at home but on the road, they have not performed well with the most recent loss being a 55-31 loss at Illinois.  They have road losses to Nebraska 53-28, Ohio St 30-14, and Maryland 42-13. The Gophers allow over 300 ypg on the ground on the road while Wisconsin gains around 316 on the ground at home.

Wisconsin is 1-5 ATS at home but those spreads were -29 vs Rutgers, -18 vs Nebraska, -23.5 vs BYU and -35.5 vs New Mexico.  The Badgers covered -10 in all of those games with exception of the early season loss to BYU.

Minnesota should not be able to stop Wisconsin on the ground and expecting a double digit win at home for the Badgers.

Wisconsin has won last 8 meetings by 10 or more points.

-MIN-1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games

-MIN 3-7 ATS last 10 conference games

College Football Week 13 Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
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Kansas State vs Iowa State -14

Ever here the old saying, win one for the Gipper?   Well right now Bill Snyder of Kansas State is the Gipper and his players love him.  Kansas State hasn’t missed a bowl game since 2009 and it kinda put Bill Snyder on a bit of a hot seat with the fans.   Kansas State has a very good defense this year and has finished the last 3 games well losing to TCU by only 1 point and then beating Kansas and Texas Tech outright.  Kansas State also has a nice signature win against Oklahoma State this year and they only lost to Texas by 5 points.   Iowa State isn’t exactly a juggernaut here allowing 5 yards per play and only getting 5.56 on offense.  They are also bowl eligible here so no motivation to whoop on the Wildcats.  Iowa State’s strength is their passing game while Kansas State’s strength is stopping the pass allowing only 6.6 yard per attempt.  With a super low total at 40 points for this game this easily fits into our 20% theory of the spread being over 20% of the total.   Take the Dog

Kansas State +14 and ML Sprinkle

UAB vs Middle Tennessee State +2.0

UAB has been a sports bettors dream this year.  Such an amazing story for coach Bill Clark bringing a team that didn’t exist in 2016 to the leader in Conference USA.   A nice 8-3 against the spread has been a sports bettors go to team and now with this last game they have a chance to go undefeated in their conference.   Wait!   Hold up.   Middle Tennessee state is 1 game from being bowl eligible and if Florida International loses the earlier game against Marshall then Middle Tennessee has a change to represent in the conference USA Championship against UAB.   That is 2 motivational spots there.   Plus what is more important to coach Clark?   Being healthy for their championship game, or attempting to go undefeated?   UAB was really banged up after facing Texas A&M last week and the injury report shows it.  QB AJ Erdly is questionable as well.  Power rankings has this closer to a pickem.  The motivation here lies with Middle Tennessee State and Brent Stockstill is finally healthy.

Middle Tennessee State +2

Maryland vs Penn State +13.5

So our Big 10 power ratings has this game at Penn State +13 so no value there but this handicap involves 2 things that has happened the last 3 weeks.   Penn State’s season pretty much crumbled after getting destroyed by Michigan and Maryland has realized that their back up QB Tyrrell Pigrome is better than Kasim Hill and it showed the last few weeks.   Prigrome has a better passer rating and completion percentage so far and his poise showed last week vs Ohio State.   He can also run the ball when needed.   I think Maryland has found something the last few weeks and are fighting for bowl consideration.   On the other hand Penn State does not have much motivation to clean house here.   This isn’t a rivalry and Tracy McSorely has to stay healthy for his NFL future.   Lastly Maryland can pound the ball well at 6 yards per carry and that is Penn State’s defensive weakness.

Maryland +13.5

Oklahoma State vs TCU +5 O/U 57

So TCU is trying to be bowl eligible here so this should be a huge get up spot for them right???   It is but there is one major problem.   HUGE INJURIES    TCU is missing Sean Robinson for the season from a few weeks back and now just lost Michael Collins from last game against Baylor along with Running back Darius Anderson.   They also have two starting lineman questionable.   TCU the last 3 games could not score more than 16 points and now they play an Oklahoma state team in a huge let down spot.   The Cowboys just beat West Virginia at home as has a track record of failing the next game.   With Justice Hill beat up from last game this team hardly has a ton of motivation to blow out TCU.   At least the Horned Frogs are healthy on defense and will need it to win this game.  Their defense ranks first in the big 12 at allowing only 5 yards per play and second in points allowing 24.   This game will have a huge dose of running the football and I love this under 57.

TCU under 57

Premium Plays:

Houston vs Memphis – side

Purdue vs Indiana

Coastal Carolina vs South Alabama

Southern Miss vs UTEP

Quick Hitters:

Houston vs Memphis under 77.   This is an easy one here.   D’Erick king torn his Meniscus last game and is out for the season for their biggest game.   King was to Houston like the Lamar Jackson was to Louisville.   Clayton Tune now will burn his redshit to start for Houston and try to play this game.   Unfortunately these are 2 different quarterbacks with Tune being more of a pocket passer and this team does not have the time to adjust.  Memphis on the other hand is just dying to get revenge on UCF and will come in and dominate this game on defense.

Washington State -3 hosting Washington.   Your telling me I can have the best team in college football ATS at -3 at home to their rival Washington?   This is a huge revenge spot as well.   Gardner Minshew is having a dream season and there is no reason to think that Washington will be able to stop this train.  This spread means pickem on a Neutral field.   Both these teams are pretty equal with Washington State having the edge on Offense and Washington having the edge on D.   They are about equal in net yards per play and have had similiar schedules.  The handicap here is that I do not think that the Huskies can keep up with this Cougars team because they tend to struggle on the road against tempo as we saw vs Oregon and barley getting out of UCLA.     WASU -3

Michigan vs Ohio – No play yet but maybe under

Auburn vs Alabama – Alabama first half for sure.   Maybe the full game

 

Bobby Bets Thanksgiving Card

By
557355
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Happy Thanksgiving to all our Subscribers! NBA took the day off, but I am not. Yesterday’s pack went 2-2 We stayed hot with NBA totals but Warriors couldn’t come through or the Duke 1H under. Might as well mark Golden State on your Do not bet list; Something is happening in the Bay. KD might be tanking, he might be cold either way I’d stay away. Lets shift the focus to college hoops. A lot of different tournaments taking place now but let’s dig into Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin, Oklahoma just upset Florida Wednesday afternoon to open the battle 4 Atlantis. They’ll take on Wisconsin who just took care of Stanford 62-46. Wisconsin has been efficient offensively and that has carried them but they only shot 1 for 8 behind the arc and scored most their points in the Paint. Oklahoma has been good on the boards and Wisconsin ranks 11th in the Big Ten in rebounding.
Oklahoma +5
FSU has been explosive to start the season and picked up right where they left march with an Elite 8 run. UAB has done everything asked of them so far and might be the Noles toughest test yet. UAB defense has shown out and I think that alone will be enough to cover the number, they have the ability to score with FSU and if they are taken lately might just pull off the Upset
UAB +16

Rest of my Thanksgiving plays:
College Basketball
-La Salle/Miami over 144
Charleston +8
Florida -6
Seton Hall -5
NFL
Washington +7

Saints/Falcons Over 60.5 

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS

NFL Week 13 Plays – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
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NFL Week 13!

Jacksonville vs Buffalo +3.5 (now 3)

Ok, well we hit this one early but I must say if you think that the Bills are are the most disappointing team you are definitely wrong.  You see, in order to be a disappointment you have to have high expectations and completely fail.   JUST LIKE THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS!   Blake Bortles has proved to only be decent on short throws and 3 step drops.   Any tight defense should be able to stop this team.   Not only that, Jacksonville is just injured 2 more offensive Tackles and may be down to the garbage 3rd string.   Not good when playing the team that is ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency.   I also like the fact that Matt Barkley is a very good back up QB who destroyed the Jets last week and may be starting this game if not Josh Allen.   Both huge upgrades over Anderson and Peterman.   Both of these teams are terrible in offense and great on defense.   Low total favors the dog.  Sean McDermott is a very good coach who lost a lot last year and now should be trending up.    I have this game 20-17 Buffalo winning outright from my Algorithm.

Buffalo +3 and ML

Cincinnati vs Cleveland +3

So how many points did you upgrade Cleveland for firing their terrible coach Hugh Jackson and Todd Haley.   Well I hope it was a lot because you have to also factor in the guy replacing Todd Haley.   Freddie Kitchens was a disciple of Bruce Arians and Harold Goodwin.   Remember that Cardinals offense with Carson Palmer at the helm?   I basically upgraded the Browns 2.5 points and go ahead and throw an extra point there way for the bye week.   Cincinnati has lots of injury woes and a terrible defense that Andy Dalton constantly has to make up for.   The Browns beating the Falcons 2 weeks back was not a fluke and Baker Mayfield is getting better for sure.   Expect some new nuggets with this Browns.  Here is the kicker among all kickers here.   Cleveland dominates the matchup in yards per game at 355 to 330 and is better at defensive allowed yards per game at 420 to 450.   The wrong team is favored hear especially if AJ Green remains out.

Browns +3 and ML

Green Bay vs Minnesota -3

This is kind of a strange line.   The Packers tied the Vikings at home this year so shouldn’t the Vikings be favored by 6 points?    The closest thing the Packers had to Akiem Hicks of the Bears was Mohammed Wilkerson and they lost him after this Vikings game.   I mention this to show you how important that is to stopping the Vikings run and pass game in the Trenches.    So this game is about one major thing here.   Locker Room.   I will say it again.  Locker Room.   The Packers have always been about one guy.   This guy may be great but he also may not be too likable unlike his predecessor.  So you have one guy on the Packers (i don’t have to mention his name) that just made a guaranteed 100 million and over 30 million per year while most of the other team is around the 500K range maybe a few a bit more.   Remember when Brandon Bostick messed up that Onside kick that partially cost the Packers the NFC Championship game?  What happened after that?   The Packers dumped him and ruined his career.   Didn’t have his back.  Side note, I actually met Brandon Bostick at the airport a few months after that and he was flying to try out with the Vikings.   I told him not to worry about nothing and go kick some ass.    Now you have Ty Montgomery in a regular season game trying to make a play and fumbles the ball, what happens?   The Packers trade him within hours and move on like the guy has some sort of terribly contagious disease.   You know why that happened?   Cause he didn’t give the million dollar man a chance to win this 1 regular season game…   Even after all he did when they ran out of running backs.   He came in and balled!  Now you have a coach that makes much more than the average players in Mike McCarthy that with 4 minutes left in the game AT SEATTLE with only 1 time out down left and down only 3 decides to punt the ball on 4th down to a Russell Wilson led Seattle team who only needs to get 10 yards at home to win the game.   What happens to Coach?    NOTHING!!!   NADA!!!  So great for the locker room isn’t it?    Every time the Packers lose a game everyone, the media, the fans, the organization and I mean everyone blames the players for sucking and being terrible football players not good enough to lift Aaron Rodgers Jockstrap!!!   After all of this, you tell me that the Packers should be a Pickem on a neutral field against the pissed off and now getting healthy Vikings????  I rest my case.

Vikings by 10  and lay that -3!

Quick hitters:

Redskins +7.5 vs Cowboys – Now we see Dallas on the up and up and see the Redskins on the down right?   Well not this game.   What do the Cowboys do well?   Run the ball.    What does the Redskins do best?   Stop the run and they rank 6th in the NFL allowing only 95 rushing yards per game.   This is why they beat them the first time.  Everyone is down on the Skins for that gruesome Alex Smith injury but I actually think that Colt McCoy isn’t much of a downgrade.   He has been in this system for 5 years and can scramble.  Now I know their offensive line is in Shambles but due to that, Colt McCoy may benefit more than Alex Smith would have due to his slippery mobility.   Colt is a poor mans Russell Wilson at best but he is from Texas and proud.   Hes coming home to keep a close game and I love the skins by +7.5

Bears -3.5 vs the Lions.   Kerryon Johnson is now hurt and it looks like Marvin Jones won’t be back.   All the points that the Lions scored against this team 10 days ago was in garbage time.   The Lions have a terrible pass blocking O line and are terrible against the run.   Bears by 6

Teaser:  Giants to +12 with the Ravins Under to 49

Cardinals vs Chargers is premium play

 

College Football Friday Pick: Houston at Memphis

By
Alan Cashman
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Friday

Houston at Memphis

Pick: Memphis -6.5 (buy ½ from -7) /Normal

 

I don’t think we will need the hook here but would be upset to lose because we didn’t grab it.

QB King is now out for the season for Houston after tearing his meniscus.  He has 36/6 TD/INT and accounts for ¼ of the teams rushing yards and leads team in rushing TD with 14.  Leading rusher, Carr, has 5 rushing TD. This is a huge loss for Houston who likely now will have an inexperienced freshman playing QB on the road in a big game.

 

The Houston defense does not stop most opponents with talent on offense.  Houston ranks #129 in pass defense, #82 in rush defense and #117 in total defense.  They are also #101 in scoring defense. The Cougars allow over 500 yards per game on the road.

 

The Memphis offense is #7 in total offense and scoring offense.  QB White has a 24/5 TD/INT ratio. The Tigers avg 260.7 yards rushing over the last 3 games while Houston is allowing 241.7 yards and 5.3 yards per carry over its last 3.  

 

On defense, Memphis is holding opponents to 2.5 ypc on the ground over the last 3 games.  

Memphis is scoring over 51 ppg at home while allowing just over 22 ppg at home. Memphis has scored 47 or more points at home in every game except for 30-31 oss to a very good UCF team.  Houston allows over 38 ppg on the road. They allowed 45 at SMU, a team Memphis held to 18 points at SMU.

Memphis 5-1 ATS at home

Houston 2-3 ATS on road

Wednesday Hoops 4 free pack

By
557355
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Apologies for the first post being an older version that I eventually handicapped more and changed

To show my appreciation to all the Subscribers and Followers I’m giving out my best NBA and College Hoops plays the next two days. First up is the Maui invitational championship at 5pm, Duke & Gonzaga. Maui isn’t a great under court known for “Soft Rims”, the fact that both teams have played a few days in a row and will tip off 11am local has me really liking this total especially at a higher number like 166.

1st free play: Duke/Gonzaga under 79 (1H)

Next we have Clemson & Creighton tipping off at 730 in the Cayman islands final. Clemson has been stout defensively and they go as their defense goes. Creighton’s offense has sparked in the islands shooting over 55% and averaging 93.5 points. The Blue Jays made eight 3pointers in the 1st half while causing 11 turnover in their latest win. I think the man to man defense of the Blue Jays and offensive explosion will carry them to victory.

2nd Free play: Creighton +4

Moving to the 1st leg of the ESPN NBA double header, The King Returns home to Cleveland. Two of the worse defensive team in the league matchup and everyone expects Lebron to continue having the hot hand. I think we see a more defensive game then expected Wednesday night. Lakers are on the last leg of a 3 game road trip, and I don’t see them being motivated other than LBJ. Cavs on the other hand will want to prove themselves and will make this a low 100s high 90s type of game 221 is just too much.

3rd free play: Cavs/Lakers under 221

Lastly, we’ll head to Oracle where the Thunder play the Warriors in the 2nd game of the ESPN doubleheader. Warriors will continue to be without Boogie, Curry and Green. On the bright side they return home from a dismal 3 game road trip. But they run into a hot OKC squad. KD will be sure to be on his game tonight and the crowd will surely bring it. Klay Thompson is the real deal and we quickly forget this team was built around him in the 1st place, him and Iguadola are more then capable and KD is still KD. We’re fortunate to get them at such a low number.
4th free play: Golden State Warriors -1

Twitter: @BobbybetsATS

NCAA Week 13 and NFL Week 12 Sharp Line Movement

By
Kiev O'Neil
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The Sharp Side of the Force!

Mississippi State at Ole Miss -8.5 to -10.5 – key number

Kansas +15 hosting Texas

Mizzouri -19.5 to -23 hosting Arkansas

Dual Action on Buffalo vs Bowling Green -13 to -15 – Can’t bet it cause of my 12-1 Mac Ticket on the Bulls

Georgia State +11 hosting Georgia Southern

Illinois +18 at Northwestern – 40% point difference yuck and apparently Pat Fitzgerald pays attention to spreads as we saw last week

Georgia -17 hosting Georgia Tech.  Look what Clemson did to them

Wisconsin -10 hosting Minnesota – I agree with this one and really agree if Hornibrook is back

Old Dominion -8 Hosting Rice

New Mexico State +9 at Liberty

Utah State from +3 to +2 at Boise State a 41% point difference

Troy +10.5 at Appalachian State

UAB from +2 to -2 at Middle Tennessee state

Cal -11 to -12.5 hosting Colorado

Stanford -6.5 at UCLA

Baylor +7 to +6.5 hosting Texas Tech

San Jose State +31 at Fresno State

Purdue -4 at Indiana

Dual Action on Arkansas State -13 at Texas State

Alabama -24 hosting Auburn

San Diego State -16 to -17 hosting Hawaii

Sharp totals:

Mississippi state vs Ole Miss Over 59

East Carolina vs Cincinnati under 52 – yuck

Texas vs Kansas under from 51 to 49

Oregon vs Oregon State over 68.5 to 69

Houston vs Memphis Under 76

Washington vs Washington State under from 54 to 49

South Carolina vs Clemson over 58.5

Syracuse vs Boston College under 57.5

Dual Action on the Michigan vs Ohio State under 59 to 56.5 – I so agree with this move and pissed that I didn’t take it.

Georgia Tech vs Georgia under 69.5

Texas Tech vs Baylor under 65 a 71% point difference

Auburn vs Alabama over 52.5

Sharp NFL

Atlanta +14.5 to +13 at New Orleans

Buffalo +3.5 to +3 hosting Jacksonville a 39% point difference

San Francisco +3 at Tampa Bay

San Francisco at Tampa Bay over 55

Arizona at LA Chargers under 45

 

 

 

Maui Invitational Championship – Duke vs Gonzaga Plays

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Duke vs Gonzaga +7 O/U 164.5

Ok, going to take a shot on this baby.   Both of these teams have high flying offenses and their game tempo would be even be higher if they were not blowing out teams and running the clock at the end.   Gonzaga leads college basketball in Points per game at 98.6 while Duke is 7th at 92.8.  Now one thing that we know is that Duke has had the best recruiting class by far with guys like Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett.   The important thing to know here is that Gonzaga returns 3 players including 2 upperclassman  who are very poised and played in this tournament last year.   Because of this I think this game remains very close which means a shootout at the end that will be very exciting to watch.   My numbers have this game up to 169 points and Duke should be favored by 4 points max.

Taking the over 164.5 and a little smaller on Gonzaga +7

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