Home Blog Page 641

Boston Out For Revenge Tonight in NHL

By
CoverTheProfit
-

The Bruins travel to New York tonight to take on the Rangers. These two faced off on January 19 in Boston where the Rangers beat the Bruins who were a -260 favorite. I don’t necessarily want to back either side tonight, but the situation has me looking at the Under. Boston is a -150 favorite tonight but there is more value in the Under currently sitting at -120 most places.

I look for Boston to take this game to a physical level tonight, and be stingy in shot opportunities. If Boston can limit power play opportunities here, the Under has a great shot, and I believe the numbers give it the edge.

Here are some stats/trends to back the play:

UNDER WINS with BOSTON

31-19-3 on the season, which is significant

17-7-1 on the road, and 16 of last 22 on the road have cashed under tickets.

5-0 when revenging a home loss (key situation here)

7-2 when playing B2B

8-4 second half of the season

UNDER WINS with NEW YORK

3-1 when playing a winning team second half of season

12-6 when at home with a total of 6

PLAY UNDER 6 Goals

Follow me on twitter @CoverTheProfit for other content and free plays.

NBA Under Worth a Look in Milwaukee

By
CoverTheProfit
-

I am looking at the Under in the Bucks/Wizards matchup today. There are some strong statistics and trends that back this play, especially with the number at 230. Bucks Unders have made you money in 5 of the last 7 games, 4 of the last 5 at home, 6 of the last 8 times head to head, and 4 of the last 5 times head to head at home. WASH offensively is a different team on the road, averaging 108 ppg on the road, compared to 117 at home. The Bucks have shown some tough defensive displays recently, holding opponents under 115 or less in 8 of last 10 games. These two teams matched up on February 2 and the score was 131-115 but that was in Washington. H2H, this output is not consistent with their recent performances and I don’t see the Wizards outperforming expectations here. Bucks at home after 5 road games gives me another reason to back the under here. It opened at 230 and has hovered there. Clearly there is not an Over market here to move the total and that is a key indicator for me that at 230 the under is worth a look

Play: Wizards/Bucks under 230

Southland Conference Small Road Favorite Worth a Look

By
CoverTheProfit
-

I have my eyes on a matchup in the Southland Conference where Abilene Christian is on the road tonight taking on LAMAR. The current line has Abilene Christian favored by 1. This is worth a look in my opinion. KenPom rates Abilene Christian as the 162nd adjusted offense and 189th ranked adjusted defense. These rankings out of 353 teams are noteworthy given that the Southland Conference is not one that catches most of our eyes.

Abilene Christian has a 52.7% effective FG% (EFP) as compared to LAMAR at 46.9%. I consider that gap to be statistically significant with a -1 pt spread. Additionally, take LAMAR’s relatively mediocre offensive efficiency and match it up against Abilene Christian’s defense who gives up an average of 66.8 ppg whereas LAMAR is surrendering 75.9 ppg and opponents shoot 53.2% EFP. Abilene Christian outscores their opponents on the season by 4.5 pts, compared to LAMAR with a -3.2 score margin.

I use a blended composite power rating system, where I blend several solid CBB power rating systems, and weight them according to my confidence in their numbers and further now add special weight to in-conference play. My power rating line has Abilene Christian favored by almost 9 pts on a neutral, and it is up to each sports bettor to determine what kind of home court advantage you would provide a specific team, from a specific conference, in any specific matchup. Even if you take the so-called average home court advantage of 3/3.18/3.5 pts here, there is line value. Given LAMAR’s lackluster defensive statistics and their tempo, this has a slight potential for an over consideration with the total currently sitting at 141. There is some correlation in my opinion when we get to conference play with teams of above average tempo and small spreads to overs. The theory here is that there could be some back and forth action with lead changes which tends to support higher scoring affairs than average statistics.

PLAY: Abilene Christian -1

LEAN: Over 141

Follow me on twitter @CoverTheProfit for other content and free plays.

NHL Road Value Consideration

By
CoverTheProfit
-

This might be as much of an angle riding a hot CHICAGO team as it is fading a struggling EDMONTON squad. Ordinarily, I wouldn’t back a team with a losing record on their third straight road game. BUT, CHICAGO rides a 4 game winning streak into EDMONTON and the fact that this is a 3rd of 3 road games is an angle I sometimes like. The theory here is that a team wants to finish their road stand with a sweep and it applies to this situation. They are not overlooking EDMONTON here and I would look for CHICAGO to face a let down against VANCOUVER in their next game coming off a road stand.

EDMONTON riding a 5 game losing streak. They are in organizational turmoil to a certain extent. While they have McDavid, that’s virtually all they have. EDMONTON is coming home from two games on the road to a fan base that cannot be electrified for them, even after the all star break.

Take CHICAGO ML +125 available at 5dimes. Follow us @CoverTheProfit on twitter for other angles and free plays.

MAC Road Favorite Worth a Look Despite Situation

By
CoverTheProfit
-

I see line value here still in Bowling Green tonight. They opened as a -3.5 point road favorite and sit at -5.5 at the time of this write up. The line is likely not higher because folks may consider this to be a let down and sandwich situational spot for BGSU. They are coming off a huge conference win against BUFFALO, and face TOLEDO on February 9. So, one would think that this matchup against lowly conference foe W. MICH may not afford them a max effort display. I don’t think they need to perform at or above season statistical averages to cover this line, even at -5.5. WMICH gives up 80+ ppg in conference play and over L5 games. BGSU has an explosive offense. BGSU ATS: 7-1 in conference, 9-1 L10. Road favorites of under 7 in conference play where their power rating lines have 4+ points against the current spread have been successful betting angles for me this season.

Take BGSU -5.5

Florida Tough Road Spot

By
CoverTheProfit
-

Earlier in the season we saw reports that Head Coach Mike White was struggling to find leaders on his team. If you watched their game against KENTUCKY on Saturday, you saw them control that game – UNTIL around the 9 minute mark of the second half. The effort was pitiful from a physical standpoint from that point on (in front of a crowd that supported them), and KENTUCKY won by 11. Now they are on the road today against AUBURN, and face TENNESSEE on the road on Feb. 9. This is a horrible spot unless you think they are glad to be away from their home crowd/fanbase. AUB comes in averaging 80+ ppg in all statistical categories, and I don’t see FLORIDA keeping up with their tempo or slowing them down.

Take AUB -8 tonight.

Big 12 Conference Rivals Have Under Value

By
CoverTheProfit
-

The total has recently gone from 135 to 134. I like this Under here. KU playing with Marcus Garrett tonight, who may not be a high scorer but is an offensive facilitator. KSU defense ranked 9th in adjusted DEF and KU ranked 13th per KenPom. While KU adjusted tempo may rank high, it will not change the pace of this game at KSU who ranks 323 out of 354 in adjusted tempo per KenPom. KSU unders are 9-1 at home on the season. Consider the high intensity of this matchup with conference implications and KSU playing with some revenge angles in situational analysis. KU offensive production is not what we are used to seeing, and shouldn’t be again tonight. I consider a good buy price to be down to 132.

KU/KSU under 135. Follow us on twitter @CoverTheProfit for other content and free plays

Missouri Valley Conference Under Play of the Day

By
CoverTheProfit
-

Play recommendation. VALPO/ILL ST u132. L2 weeks, VALPO 54.75 ppg, ILL ST 69.50. L4 weeks – 59/68.43 respectively. Conference play 61.40/66.30 resepctively. I have a fade Valpo angle due to lack of depth and scoring that has worked so far for me. Both teams extremely thin on bench. Valpo without Fazekas, one of their top scorers. ILL ST without Jefferson, a Guard who average 24 mpg and almost double digits. They are guard heavy and playing against Valpo who is also guard heavy. Valpo under is 4-1 L5, 8-2 L10, 8-2 in conference play. Total is 132 and seems rather high. Neither team gets to the free throw line very much and Valpo averaging 18.1 pts from 3 and giving up 19 pts from 3.  This total has already dropped to 128 in some shops and I would recommend a buy price of 126.

Missouri Valley Conference Under Play of the Day

By
CoverTheProfit
-

Play recommendation. VALPO/ILL ST u132. L2 weeks, VALPO 54.75 ppg, ILL ST 69.50. L4 weeks – 59/68.43 respectively. Conference play 61.40/66.30 resepctively. I have a fade Valpo angle due to lack of depth and scoring that has worked so far for me. Both teams extremely thin on bench. Valpo without Fazekas, one of their top scorers. ILL ST without Jefferson, a Guard who average 24 mpg and almost double digits. They are guard heavy and playing against Valpo who is also guard heavy. Valpo under is 4-1 L5, 8-2 L10, 8-2 in conference play. Total is 132 and seems rather high. Neither team gets to the free throw line very much and Valpo averaging 18.1 pts from 3 and giving up 19 pts from 3.

NCAA Hoops Tuesday 2-pack Plays 2/5 – Sports Betting

By
Kiev O'Neil
-

Kansas vs Kansas State – 2.5

I can smell revenge in the air! There is nothing like having the opportunity to play your in state rival at home after getting blown out the year before by 16 points. The Jayhawks right now are a wounded animal and the Wildcats smell blood. Ever since Kansas lost Udoka Azubukie they have been very average dropping games to Texas, West Virginia and Kentucky. As a matter of fact this Jayhawks team is only 1-5 ATS as an away team and 1-3 in conference play. The Wildcats on the other hand has been trending up since getting back their stud big man Dean Wade against teams like Iowa State, TCU and Texas Tech. This game for the Wildcats is much more important to them in order to move up in the rankings and solidify a number 1 ranking in the Big 12. Now that Marcus Garrett was just announced injured and out for this game with an ankle sprain the Jayhawks even have more depth issues. Most of these Kansas Kids playing are young Kansas knows that some of their key wins will be enough when it comes to tournament seeding and since they just won on Saturday against Texas Tech, I see a flat spot for them in order to try and get healthy.

Kansas State -2.5

Florida State vs Syracuse -2.5 O/U 137

Florida State has played some high scoring games but if you look at the ACC in general it is a fast paced conference. When the Semis had to play the slower teams they seemed to struggle to score against the likes of Pittsburgh, Virginia and Georgia Tech. Even more prevalent is that Florida State hasn’t played well at all on the road being 1-4 ATS while Syracuse is 8-6 at home. Florida State likes to use their height to dominate games because they are so bad from 3 point land at only 33%. Syracuse is the tallest team in basketball and matches up VERY well against the Semi’s inside game. I like the fact that both of these teams have good defenses and both of these teams do not shoot the ball well at all both ranking in the bottom 180 in effective FG percentage. I really like the fact that Syracuse plays the 10th slowest pace in the ACC. Since the Orange struggles from free throw land I do not see how this game goes over the total of 137 and I also think with that top 20 D, they they stop the Seminals from scoring many points.

Syracuse -2.5 small and Under 137 large. Correlated parlay as well.

1...640641642...675Page 641 of 675