College football week 14

Ohio State vs Northwestern + 13.5

Well this game falls about right where my Power ratings line up but we have to look here at the situation. In Urban Meyer’s mind he thinks that if they do not blow out the Wildcats and for some reason if Oklahoma does blow out Texas, they may not make it to the national championship playoffs.   Urban Meyer is instilling this into the minds of his players.   Now Northwestern was a solid team this year who caught people buy surprise and it worked out quite well BUT there is something very strange about them.   They must be the luckiest team in the league because they only average 4.6 yards per play on offense and they give up 5.5 on defense.   I have never seen anything like this.   Playing for the Big 10 conference championship with a -.9 net yards per play.  Netted against Ohio State’s 6.7  on offense and 5.8 yards per play on D, the Buckeye’s also have a .9 yards per play advantage.   Ohio State is only second to Oklahoma in yards per game at 544 and they can turn their defense up when needed.   Northwestern’s run game doesn’t really have any misdirection or anything special and will look similar to Michigan’s last week.   This game reminds me of the 2014 situation where the Buckeye’s blew out Wisconsin by 50 to later become national champions.

Ohio State -13.5

Northern Illinois vs Buffalo -3.5 O/U 49

Now you know from our last podcasts that we need Buffalo to win this game and now winning by just 3 would be absolutely perfect but we also have a total play here.   This game is pretty much NIU’s great defense vs Buffalo’s great offense.   Buffalo is great at running the ball with Jarrett Patterson, passing with Tyreke Jackson to Anthony Johnson and stopping the pass.  Their only weakness is stopping the run.   Northern Illinois on the other hand Can run the ball half way decent and can stop everything but they can’t pass the ball well.   So what wins out?   There is sharp money on NIU because normally the run games wins and they keep the ball out of the passing teams hands.   Well that is very possible but I think that Lance Leopold has seen this before and should be able to stack the box.   NIU only averages 4.1 yards per rush which is on the lower side.    I think this is a live betting situation personally and maybe bet on the team that scores first.   What I do like is the over here because even if NIU happens to score a few times, Buffalo will get more one dimensional and throw the ball more and we know that they can do it well.   Lastly my algorithm actually has Buffalo winning by 4 points and the total going to exactly 49.5 but that does not factor in that this game is being played on the turf at Ford Field. This field should benefit the Bulls greatly here and benefit the passing game.

Over 49

Alabama vs Georgia +13.5

Well here we are.  The game that we have been waiting for is here.   What can one say.   This is probably the best Alabama or College Football team in general that I have ever seen.   The DeShawn Watson Clemson team of a few years back maybe the one to rival it but they didn’t destroy teams the way Bama did.   But I think its important to look at a few things here first before we look at this large spread.   Georgia is a top 4 team in my opinion and it is shocking to see this.   I have to ask myself, who did Alabama play?   Well they shut out the next 2 best SEC teams in LSU and Mississippi State.   That should kinda tell you all you need to know right?   Especially since Georgia lost outright at LSU right?   So the Alabama Mississippi state game would have been a much different game if the officials didn’t botch that last TD with a Phantom block in the back call.    Sure Bama still would have won but maybe more like 24-7 or something.   Another glaring fact to me is that Alabama hasn’t faced a passing team ranked in the top 30 minus a terrible ole miss team.  Bama also hasn’t faced a rushing team other than Mississippi state that’s even ranked in the top 50!!!!   Alabama had maybe the easiest non conference schedule’s in the nation.   Now they have to face a Georgia team with the same QB as last year in Jake Fromm who is looking for revenge from last years over time championship loss.   You know I love revenge spots if its the same QB and coach from the year before.  At 6.3 yards per run and a 177 QB rating this Georgia team can be all kinds of dangerous.   Bama has the highest variance of 3.6 in their own net yards per play getting 8 on offense and allowing 4.4 on defense but Georgia isn’t too shabby at 7.4 on offense and allowing 4.8 on defense.   That is only a .5 net yard per play difference with Georgia having a harder schedule.  This game should only be a 9.5 point spread.   I have this game 32 to 23 Alabama so I also like the under

Georgia +13.5 and smaller on the under cause i could see some crazy things this game

UAB vs Middle Tennessee State -1

Well we have discussed UAB and how great of a season they have had many times but I think that there is a reason the Blue Raiders are favored in this game.   First of all, last week these teams played each other and because Marshall beat FIU, this game all of a sudden became important UAB was playing last week’s game for home field advantage and they ended up losing.   Now you have a  team in Middle Tennessee State that has healthy Brent Stockstill with a 26-6 TD to Interception ratio completing over 71% of his passes and is playing at home.   UAB cannot pass the ball well at all with AJ Erdely having only a 7-7 TD to interception ratio at 56% completion.   UAB is also still decimated on the injury report with their top running back Spencer Brown highly questionable this game along with a bunch of O lineman.   I think this play is easy when you look at their schedule’s with UAB’s was very easy ranking 137th and Middle Tennessee State was a bit harder ranking 102 due to playing Kentucky, Georgia and Vanderbilt.  Last week the Blue Raiders outgained the Blazers 394 to 89 yards.  Now it looks like it may thunderstorm with 15mph winds so that somewhat favors UABs running game but I still think with their injuries you have to give it to the Blue Raiders here.   If  the weather doesn’t hold up then it is a smaller play, if it does than have at it!   Brent Stockstill is going to go out on top of conference USA and this game is a no-brainer to me.

Middle Tennessee State -1

Premium Plays:  

East Carolina vs NC State Premium

Marshall vs Virginia Tech Premium

Quick Hitter:

Taking Washington -5 vs Utah – This game is being played in Santa Clara which is feels more like a west coast off the ocean Huskies game.   Chris Peterson knows how to play this Utah team who is without their QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zach Moss.  Utah has also benefited by playing an easier schedule this year.   Utah has a stought defense but Washington’s is even better.  This game is Jake Browning’s audition for the NFL.  

Texas vs Oklahoma -7.5   No play or lean.   Texas has a good D and their QB Sam Ehlinger eats nails for breakfast.   Oklahoma needs this bad and its a revenge spot.