College Football Week 12 Plays

Michigan State vs Nebraska +2

This is really the tale of 2 teams in a nutshell.   One has been a disappointment down the stretch and one is motivated for getting better for next year.    One team is great on offense and bad on defense and one team is great on defense and bad on offense.   Yards per play you have Nebraska at 6.5 on offense and giving up 6.2 on defense and Michigan State 4.9 on offense and giving up 4.8 on defense giving Nebraska  a slight edge in net yards per play.   The fact that Michigan State just was devastated in their revenge spot against Ohio State makes me like the spot here for Nebraska.  The fact that Michigan State lost their top WR Felton Davis a few weeks back and just lost their top RB LJ Scott for the rest of the season last game is huge.   The fact that there is a QB controversy in Michigan State between Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi is a game changer.

Nebraska +2 and ML

Virginia vs Georgia Tech -6.5

Well Georgia tech has had a nice run in the ACC lately and a very nice win vs the Hurricanes but now it is time for their let down spot.   If there is one thing that Bronco Mendenhall knows how to do from his days in the Mountain West, it is to stop the triple option.   The Cavaliers are allowing only 4.2 yards per rush in a tough ACC conference while the Yellow Jackets allow 4.3.  The key here is that Virginia can throw the ball as well and Bryce Perkins averages 7.6 yards per attempt with a 64% completion percentage.   Georgia Tech this year is at a dismal 49% percentage and a 4-4 TD to interception ratio.   The handicap is simple here for Virginia, stop the triple option and win the game.

Virginia +6.5

Kansas vs Oklahoma – 36.5

Kansas is that huge juggernaut in the way of Oklahoma getting to the big 12 championship and playoff birth right???   WROOOOOOOOONG.    That would be West Virginia and that wonderful sandwich spot that they are in.   The Sooners just got done playing their rival Oklahoma State in a very emotional game that came down to the end.  Now they have West Virginia on the docket that will likely cost one of these teams playoff birth.   This is the definition of a Sandwhich  Spot.   Plus this isn’t one of these pansey ass Kansas teams that can’t score.   The Jhawks are averaging .3 yards per play and 4 points on offense more than last year, and .4 yards per play and 15 points on defense better than last year.  Linkin Riley would be crazy to keep his starters in if he is up by 21 points in the second half.

Kansas +36.5

Oregon State vs Washington – 32.5

Another ugly dog here.   I am not betting Oregon State because they are a good team here…   I mean Oregon State gives up 7.5 yards per play.     I am betting them because I know something about the Washington Huskies.   The dogs have a huge tendency to play down to their opponent and Chris Peterson isn’t a blowout coach by any means.   Lets look at the easier teams here.   When they played Colorado they only won by 14.  When they played Cal they lost by 2.  When they played UCLA they won by only 7.   ASU they won by 7.   BYU by 28.    So you see I think that they easily beat this team but take their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter.   Oregon State at least can score some points.   They average 27.5 per game and 5.4 yards per play.   From a power ratings standpoint, I have Washington by 29 points but this is a pure look ahead spot to the Apple Cup and their huge game against Washington State.

Oregon State +32.5

Tulane vs Houston -10

This is a get up spot for Houston here and we have to look at what they do well.   Well they score a ton of points running at 5.6 yards per rush and a total of 7.1 yards per play.   They also Stop the run at 3.9 yards per rush.   Their weakness is against the pass as we have seen against SMU.   Tulane on the other hand can’t throw the ball well at all.   They actually rank 110th in passing yards and they only pass 33% of the time.   They are more of an option team unless they are down lots of points.   Being that they run the ball they are playing into Houston’s strength of stopping the run.   This win for Houston will clinch the American Athletic Conference west and I think that they put on on Tulane here.

Houston -10

Arizona vs Washington State -10

Ok this game may be an exciting one.   This Arizona team hasn’t been putting up the numbers that it did last year due to bad coaching but I think over the last few games Kalil Tate decided to take over.  He is healthy now and hungry for an upset.   Over the last 3 games both of these teams have averaged over 76 plays per game and have been pouring on some offense.   Arizona is averaging 39 points per game over that stretch and they played some decent teams in Oregon, UCLA, and Colorado.   Washington State on the other hand is the class of the pac 12 and averages 38 points per game and over 6.2 yards per play.   WASU has a huge game coming up that may have college football playoff implications and all signs point to a look ahead to  Washington.   They may have forgotton that this Kalil Tate led team scored 37 points against them and the final score was 58-37.   This is a dangerous spot and I predict a close high scoring game.

Arizona +10 and Love the over 59

Premium Plays:

Memphis vs SMU – side

Utah State vs Colorado State

Louisiana Monroe vs Arkansas State

FIU vs Charlotte

Northwestern vs Minnesota

Quick Hitters:

Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt over 67 – Lets try this again.   We almost hit this at Texas A&M but lost.   Vandy is a worse defensive  team than Texas A&M and they like to throw the ball a ton.   Ole Miss is top 5 in yards per play, top 19 in points per game, top 30 in pace and Bottom 16 in defense.   Both teams trying to win to make a bowl so I will take the over

Memphis vs SMU over 72.5 – I predict this game to be the biggest shootout of the week.   Memphis is top 3 in yards per play at 7.5, top 6 in points per game at 45 and on the road they are terrible allowing 42 points per game.   SMU on the other hand played Michigan and TCU in the non conference messing up their stats and since the UCF game they only lost to Cincinnati by 6, Beat Houston by 14 scoring 45 points at home, and scored 62 at Uconn.   They are fighting for the AAC west and will put up a great fight here.

Syracuse +10.5 and ML sprinkle vs Notre Dame.   If Northwestern is a +10 then Syracuse should be a +6 IMO

Sharp side of the force!   – Sharp Line Movement

Tulane at Houston – +10 – I disagree with this

New Mexico hosting Boise State – +21.5 to 19.5

Dual Action on Toledo at Kent State

Wisconsin at Purdue – +6 to +4.5

Virginia at Georgia State – +6.5

Minnesota hosting Northwestern – +4 to +1.5

Umass at Georgia – +44 to +41

Middle Tennessee State at Kentucky – +16

Maryland hosting Ohio State – +17.5 to +14 – Becareful Here

NC State at Louisville – -14.5 to -16.5

FIU at Charlotte –  -5.5 to -6.5 99% of the money on FIU

Arizona at Washington State – +10 to +9.5

Mississippi State hosting Arkansas – -19 to -21.5

Oklahoma hosting Kansas – -34 to -36.5

UTEP at Western Kentucky – +7

Nebraska hosting Michigan State – +2

Florida hosting Idaho – -40

Sharp Totals:

FAU vs N Texas Under 63

Dual Action on Memphis vs SMU over 72 to 73

Boise State vs New Mexico under 63

Iowa vs Illinois over 58.5 huge difference of 77%

Wisconsin vs Purdue under 52.5

Dual Action on Northwestern vs Minnesota under 51 to 47.5

Dual Action on Duke vs Clemson over 57.5 – 98% of money on over

Air force vs Wyoming under 43

Tulsa vs Navy Over 52.5

Boston College vs Florida State under 49

Washington vs Oregon State under 58

Iowa State vs Texas under 52 down to 47.5

San Diego State vs Fresno State under 45 to 41.5