December 26th 2018

The First Responder Bowl, Dallas Texas – Boston College vs Boise State -2.5 O/U 55.5

Boston College was one of those hopeful teams to beat Clemson this year and after that game, they had a terrible finish losing at Florida State as well as Syracuse by double digits.  On the other hand, this team is very healthy compared to Boise State who is down some defensive backs and wide receivers hence the line move past the 3.   Power ratings have Boise state by 3 points here.  Being that these teams are from some very different conferences in different sides of the country, I think it is pointless to run an algorithm.   What I do see is that Boise State relies much more on the pass than BC and with injured wide receivers, that doesn’t bode well.   I also see BC having a better defense allowing only 5.2 yards per play in a harder division to Boise State’s 5.6.   I think the eagles should run all over this team and lean BC +2.5 and under 55.5

Lean Boston College +2.5 and under 55.5

The Quick Lane Bowl, Detroit MI – Minnesota vs Georgia Tech -6 O/U 60

Lots of motivating factors here.   It is Coach Paul Johnson’s last game at Georgia Tech and the kids may want to send him out with a bang.    On the other hand it is Coach PJ Fleck’s first bowl game as a Golden Gopher and they want to establish momentum for next season.   The Gophers will be without their star Offensive Tackle Donnell Green and Linebacker Rodney Smith due to NFL draft hold out. Minnesota had a pretty hard schedule but finished the season very well winning 3 of their last 5 big 10 games against Indiana, Purdue and Wisconsin. They also played well against Northwestern if it wasn’t for those 3 turnovers, it may have been a different game.   Georgia Tech also had a strong finish winning 4 of their last 5 games.   The Yellow Jackets are an option team that will  pound the ball hard against the Gophers making them difficult to stop, but lately, Minnesota has been stopping the run well as we saw against Wisconsin.   Both teams give up almost 6 yards per play on defense and Minnesota has had the harder schedule.   Basically both defenses are not good here.   If the Gophers can play the way that they did against Wisconsin, then I think they have a shot at not only covering this spread, but also winning this one.

Minnesota small +6.5

Cheez-it Bowl, Phoenix AZ – Cal vs TCU PK O/U 38

Well this is a pretty cheesy name for a bowl game and looking at these offenses, this bowl name pretty much fits the bill.  This game will be played at Chase Field in Phoenix Arizona.   The line here is telling you that we have 2 solid defenses playing some terrible offenses here.  This Justin Wilcox led Cal Bears team has had some great wins against teams like Washington and USC but also some bad losses against UCLA and Arizona.   Both Defenses allow 4.9 or less yards per play with the harder schedule Edge to TCU.   Neither offense averages over 5.4 yards per play.  Coach Gary Patterson has a good bowl record at 9-3 since 2005 but is only 5-7 ATS.   I see both teams being motivated here but it all has to do with the injury report to me.  If Darius Anderson RB and Backup QB Michael Collins can’t play this game for TCU due to injuries, then I will play Cal.   If one of them is in, it’s a Pick-em.  If Both players are in the play shifts to TCU.   Nothing big of course

Wait for injury report. 

December 27th 2018

The Walk-On Independence Bowl, Schreveport Louisiana – Duke vs Temple -4.5 O/U 55

Duke is a funny team.   You hate them in basketball and love them in football.   Man was this Duke team good in the beginning of the season.  They rolled through there non-conference beating teams like Northwestern, Baylor and Army.   The team then experienced some bad luck losing their stud corner back Gilbert and RB Marvin Hubbard early in the year.   They also lost QB Daniel Jones for a little while during the beginning of that stretch having some losses to Virginia Tech and Pitt.  This spread has went up a bit in Temple’s favor due to Duke’s Terrible recent loss against Wake Forest at the very end of the season but I am going to cross that game off and forget about it due to the fact that the Blue Devils just got done playing Clemson and had no motivation to try.   Temple on the other hand started bad and then played great this year winning 6 of their last 7 games.   The Owls haven’t really stepped up well against the ranked teams and had a pretty easy schedule.   Another issue for the Owls is that their coach Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech and will not be coaching the Bowl Game leaving it in the hands of interim Ed Foley.   This coach thing happens all the time for this team. Temple is like a power 5 coach manufacturing plant.  David Cutcliff on the other hand for the Blue Devils is 4-1 ATS in bowl games.  Power ratings has Temple by 3 but due to the coaching advantage here I will be playing Duke +4.5

Duke +4.5

The Pinstripe Bowl, New York, NY – Wisconsin vs Miami -3.5 O/U 48

We have a rematch from last years Orange Bowl with 2 very disappointing teams.  The Wisconsin Badgers returned everyone on offense last year minus their Tight End Troy Fumagale and yet was completely flat and very disappointing.    They did not live up to their pre-season ranks and quickly became one dimensional and forgot how to pass the ball early on.  Now that their QB Alex Hornibrook is injured, backup Jack Coan from New York will be playing in his home State. Miami has been pretty bad themselves with a QB controversy all year but they at last still have a top 10 defense and can stop the Run.   This game will be won on the ground.  It’s Wisconsin’s run offense vs Miami’s run defense.  I actually think that the fact that Wisconsin lost their defensive run stopper in Olive Sagapolu this year, they might not be able to stop the Hurricane’s rushing offense.   Miami really has’t faced a good passing team this year so it is hard to gauge where they really are at and if that great 5.5 passing yards per attempt passing defense is real, then it could be a long day for the Badgers.   If Wisconsin is going to win this game it will have to be Jack Coan leading the way and so far he hasn’t looked too good.  I do not like how Wisconsin finished the season this year but I do like the fact that they are a dog here against a team that they know that they can beat.   Miami may be in a revenge spot but I do not think they win by over 3

Small Lean to Wisconsin +3.5

The Outdoors Texas Bowl, Houston Tx – Vanderbilt vs Baylor +4.5 O/U 55

Gonna keep this one short and sweet.    This is pretty much a home game for Baylor only 181 miles from Houston hence the line move from +7 to +4.5. You have 2 offenses that are a little above average in yards per play and points per game around 5.9 yards per play for Baylor and 6.1 for the Commodores and 2 defenses that are below average at 5.9 for Vanderbilt at 6.4 for Baylor going against each other.   Vandy finished the season strong averaging 37 points per game their last 4.   Now they play a fast paced Baylor team that can put up some yards and some points themselves.   The key here is that Baylor plays fast averaging 80 plays per game.   That is top 7 in the country.   Being that this game is like playing at home for Baylor, I think that they control the pace in this game and the fact that it is on Turf makes me love this play even more.  I am taking the OVER 55 points here and it is one of my favorite plays.

Baylor over 55

December 28th

The Music City Bowl, Nashville TN – Purdue vs Auburn -3.5 O/U 54.5

Well Purdue certainly had a solid year.   Did they lose to the Gophers?  Yes.  Did they lose to Wisconsin?   Yes.   But the fact that they beat Ohio State by 29 and made a bowl game is huge.   Now they get to play an SEC team that was more of a disappointment to their fan base and was embarrassed last year vs Central Florida.  After the Tigers beat Washington early in the season pretty much at home, they only were able to beat 1 additional ranked team in Texas A & M this year and it took their final drive of that game.   Purdue started their season out very bad and then became kind of a tough out for some teams.   Lets look at the intangibles.   Both teams are about 300 miles away from Nashville.  Gus Malzahn of Auburn is 2-3 against the spread in bowl games while Jeff Brohm is 3-1.   I look at Auburn as a team with kind of a bad offense with a very good defensive front but teams that can pass the ball are the ones that become their Kryptonite.  This Auburn team is similar to a Michigan State in my opinion.   Being that these teams are both in the 2 best conferences I ran my algorithm and have Auburn winning 26.5 to 25.5 so the only play for me would be the Boilermakers +3.5 along with the sharps.   

Lean Purdue +3.5

The Camping World Bowl, Orlando FL – West Virginia vs Syracuse +1 O/U 67

As soon as this Will Grier announced he isn’t playing in the bowl game due to holding out for the NFL draft, this line fell like London Bridge.  The under dropped 7 points as well.   Did the spread fall far enough is the question.   
Most power ratings have the Mountaineers 7 points better than the Orangemen.    West Virginia was favored by 7 points coming into this game and we do not know much about backup Jack Allison except that he has had time to practice.   The worst part for this new QB is that his best O lineman Yodny Cajuste will also be sitting out.   Both of these teams are similar on defense allowing 5.84 yards per play.   I personally think that Will Grier along with his best tackle is worth more than 7 points to the line and maybe even into the double digits.   I also think Will Grier sent a message to the rest of his team by not playing this game.   Syracuse is hungry for a bowl win after some losing seasons.    Get this thing quick because this line will keep going in the wrong direction.

Syracuse +1 or ML +105

The Alamo Bowl, San Antonio TX – Iowa State vs Washington State -3.5 O/U 55

This total in a Washington state game at 55 pretty much tells you everything you need to know about this one.   We got this game early at +6.5 and it went down pretty quickly.   Washington State was the best team ATS this year at 10-2, but the only problem with trends here is that Mike Leach is a terrible 1-7 ATS in bowl games which is the worst of all coaches.   Matt Campbell is 2-2.  Both of these teams are bad at running the ball but pretty solid on defense.   More importantly, I think that there is no team better suited to beat this Washington State team than this Cyclones team and the 4 teams of course in the playoffs.   Iowa State has the best defense in the high flying big 12 beating teams like West Virginia, Baylor, and Texas Tech.  Iowa State had a slow start when their QB Brock Purdy was injured vs Iowa but after mid season, they started ripping out teams winning 7 of their last 8 games.   The Cougars have a very good offense as we have seen and they play fast but the fact that Iowa State sees this in the Big 12 and their D averages a great 5 yards per play against these opponents tells me they can and will beat this Washington State team.   The lower total (for these teams) of 55 pretty much tells me there will be a cap on scoring.

Iowa State +3.5 and ML

College Football

Pick: Army -6/Lean (Bought 1/2 pt)

I like Army today with their ability to run the ball against Houston’s defense that has allowed over 900 rushing yards the last 3 games combined with an Army defense that plays well vs run and pass.  

Army’s defense is #9 in the nation.  This team has played very well on the road after an opening loss to Duke.  Army has blowout road wins at Buffalo, San Jose St and Eastern Michigan, winning those games by a combined 93 points  They took Oklahoma to overtime in Norman, losing 28-21 and holding the Sooners under 200 passing yards.

Army allows 15 first downs per game while Houston is allowing 25 first downs per game.

With the injury to QB King, Houston has had to rely on freshman QB Tune who is completing just 44.7 % of his passes despite a 7/2 TD/INT ratio.  He has 565 yards passing in 4 games.

Edge/Angle

HOU 2-4 ATS on road

Army 3-1 ATS on road

HOU #98 rush defense, Army #2 rush offense

HOU #125 total defense

The Birmingham Bowl, Birmingham Alabama – Memphis vs Wake Forest +3.5 O/U 73

What can you say about Memphis?   This team had ample opportunity to beat their rival UCF leading in both games that they played them and then choked the game away in the 4th quarter.   Now this team slightly steps up in class to play a Wake Forest team who somehow beat NC State and Duke in their last 3 games to make a bowl.   Wake Forest’s weakness is against the run allowing 4.85 yards per rush and being average at best in the rushing and passing game.   The Tigers are actually great at rushing the ball at 6.6 yards per run but they also played a much more inferior schedule to the Demon Deacons.   Memphis is a top 4 team in yards per play at 7.4 but they give up a healthy 6 on defense.   Now I would factor the stats in more if Wake Forest didn’t play a MUCH harder schedule than Memphis playing teams like Clemson, Notre Dame, Syracuse and Duke.  Wake forest plays very fast at 84 plays per game but they are not very efficient on 3rd down.   Memphis plays fast against good teams and I think they may force Wake into a one dimensional type shootout here.   Dusting off the trusty old Algorithm I have this total up to 76

Lean Over 73

The Armed Forces Bowl, Fort Worth Texas – Houston vs Army – 3 O/U 61

There isn’t a more perfect bowl bowl game for Army than this one of course.   They should definitely get some fans there.   On the other hand, the fact that this bowl is in Texas 262 miles from Houston, I think you may see some Houston fans as well.   Now Houston was a great team again this year and their coach Major Applewhite (another thing that fits this game) has done a fantastic job beating teams like Arizona and South Florida but the important thing to me is that we can’t forget the downgrade that we have to assign this Houston when they lost their QB D’Erik King.   The final score of their Memphis game was a bit misleading due to a pick 6.   I do like Houston’s interim QB Clayton Tune but now he will be facing a much more disciplined defense in Army who only allows 18 points per game, 4 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per play.   Now we know that Houston plays fast and all but Army runs the ball hard and should be able to run the clock, control time of possession and pound pound pound.    Now I really do not care in this game as much what Houston does against the pass but I do know that their defense averages a decent 4.25 yards against each rush.   I think Houston should be able to stack this box a bit and force Army on some 3 and outs.   I don’t really like a side in this game due to the QB issues with Houston, but I do like the fact that this total seems to be a tad bit too high facing an option team.

Houston under 61

The Dollar General Bowl, Mobile Alabama – Buffalo vs Troy +2

Do you know what the drive is from Troy Alabama to Mobile Alabama?   3 hours and 1 minute with approximately $12 to $13 spent on gas.   I don’t think we need to discuss how far Buffalo is.   Troy is a very solid team getting 5.9 yards per play on offense and only giving up 5 on defense.   Troy is very good against the run beating teams like Georgia Southern, Louisiana and Nebraska early in the year.   They overall had a pretty easy schedule only losing to Boise State early, Liberty and Appalachian State.   Buffalo on the other hand is a similar team who gets about 5.8 yards per play and gives up 5.2.  I think when you look at skill positions and QB you have to give it up to the Bulls with Tyree Jackson at the helm throwing to Anthony Johnson.   Both guys will be in the NFL and this is their final audition.    The Trojans on the other hand actually lost their starting Quarterback Kaleb Barker on October 6th and since has used a lesser Sawyer Smith starting and not looking quite as good.   Troy has made many bowl games and this really isn’t anything new for them.   Not much of a reward if you ask me playing another group of 5 school in your home state.   Buffalo on the other hand should be very motivated having their first bowl game in many years and has NEVER won a bowl game.   The Bulls have some unfinished business from that Mac loss to Northern Illinois.   I also like the fact that Buffalo will be playing on field turf and it should help their speed.   The key handicap here is motivation vs home field advantage and I have to go with the Bulls -2.

Buffalo -2 and lean the over 51.5   

Hawaii Bowl, Honolulu Hawaii – LA Tech vs Hawaii PK O/U 60

Not going to lie to you here.  There is no teams in these bowl games that I know less about this year.   Both teams areabout 6-6 ATS.  It is also very hard to gauge motivation here.   You have Hawaii that is kinda punished by getting a bowl game at home yet it is there home field advantage and you have some kids from Louisiana who get a free trip to Hawaii.   I know that the Rainbow Warriors have the better offense and the Bulldogs have the better defense.   Both teams pass more than 50% of the time.   Both teams are relatively healthy.   Hawaii had the slightly harder schedule.  I ran the numbers and have this game La Tech 28 and Hawaii 27.   In this instance the only thing that I can lean towards is the under 60 for now.    

Lean Under 60