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-Kiev
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil discusses the next set of bowl games with some plays and some leans. We then get into more Sharp Line Movement in the NCAA and the NFL. Next we break down some NFL plays for week 16. Kyle Hunter @kylehunterpicks of Hunterssportspicks.com then closes it out to break down some MORE college football bowls to help you decide if you are going to be on or off a side!
College: The Bahamas Bowl – FIU vs Toledo -4.5 – The Birmingham Bowl – Wake Forest vs Memphis – 3 O/U 73 – The Dollar General Bowl Buffalo vs Troy +2 O/U 49.5 – The Hawaii Bowl – LA Tech vs Hawaii -1 O/U 61 – The First Responder Bowl – Boston College vs Boise State -2 O/U 55.5 – The Cheeze-it Bowl – TCU vs Cal – PK O/U 39.5 0- The Holiday Bowl – Northwestern vs Utah -7 O/U 46 AND MORE!!!!
NFL: Green Bay vs NY Jets – Chicago vs San Francisco – Baltimore vs LA Chargers and More!
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Sports Betting & Wagering
Now this play is based completely on betting spots and strength of schedule. Western Kentucky did lose DeSean Murray due to personal reasons (I think he didn’t like school and wanted to be a pro right away) but he was only their 5th best player. Belmont has a nice 8-1 record coming into this game but they also haven’t really played anybody good other than Lipscomb and a banged up UCLA team that they just beat on Sunday. I think they are probably still celebrating that UCLA victory while studying for their finals this week. Now they get a Western Kentucky team that has had a much harder schedule losing to Washington, Indiana State, UCF, Missouri State and Troy but beating very good teams like West Virginia and Arkansas. Western Kentucky already had their let down spot on Sunday vs Troy and will be looking to get things back on track while Belmont should be in let down mode after the UCLA win. We also can mention that the Bruins have Purdue on deck after Christmas in the back of their minds making this somewhat of a sandwich spot. This game is also a revenge spot for the Hilltoppers losing to the Bruins last year by 3 points so I certainly like that angle. The early ticket count is on Belmont while the early money favors Western Kentucky.
Western Kentucky +8 and small ML +300
Now this is going to be a premier game when before the season started, this game looked a little different on Paper. Nobody expected buffalo to be a top 15 team and it is well deserved. Now they have to play a completely different style of team. Syracuse is quite unique these days playing a very methodical game and are somewhat offensively challenged. One thing that they do well is play some amazing defense utilizing the 2-3 zone used to frustrate the top high flying offenses in the ACC. Buffalo is an undefeated team who came into the year with lots of momentum after upsetting a very good Arizona team in last years NCAA tournament. Buffalo is a high flying offense themselves so I am going to make this easy. Buffalo hasn’t played anyone ranked minus an early West Virginia team without their best player from last year in Jevon Carter. Syracuse is coming off of a bad loss against Old Dominion and can’t afford another one. They also have had a much harder schedule playing Uconn, Oregon, Ohio State and Georgetown. The Orangemen know how highly ranked the Bulls are and will not take treat this team other than they would a top ACC team. I also think the venue will be a little to big for the Bulls with a very loud crowd and they should get feel the pressure leading to their first loss. My Kenpom Algorithm has this game 75 – 70 and that is why I am taking Syracuse small at -3.
Syracuse -3
Dec 18th. The Boca Raton Bowl, UAB vs Northern Illinois +2.5 O/U 43
Well I must say if you asked which 2 teams are the most similar this year you might say Northern Illinois and UAB. Both teams pound the ball a lot and have very good defenses. Neither team can throw the ball all that well but Northern Illinois has a knack for comebacks at the end. Now the Huskies won a lot of games for only having 4.6 yards per play but they had a much harder schedule than the Blazers who averages 5.6 yards per play. Both Defenses allow about 4.7 ish yards per play. NIUs schedule ranks 73 in the nation and UAB ranks 131. Being that this total is 43.5 points you can tell that this will really be a slow and boring kind of game. I have to lean NIU here at +2.5 because they have been to bowl games before and haven’t won in a while, but at the same time UAB may be motivated to win this one being that they didn’t even have a football team 3 years ago.
Lean NIU +2.5 and lean under 43
Dec 19th. The Frisco Bowl, Frisco Texas – San Diego State vs Ohio -3 O/U 54
Looking at these 2 teams you can easily see that they both finished completely opposite of each other. Ohio since losing to Northern Illinois ripped off 5 wins out of their last 6 games beating teams like Buffalo, Akron and Western Michigan by large Margins. San Diego State on the other hand has lost 4 of their last 5 games against teams like UNLV, Hawaii and Nevada. Now the Aztecs are a lot like Northern Illinois. They have a great defense with a slight weakness against the run and a boring offense averaging just 5.5 yards per play and giving up 5 on D. Ohio Has a great offense averaging 7 yards per play and giving up 6.2. So why the low spread here? It’s because San Diego State has better wins against teams like ASU, Eastern Michigan, Boise State and Air Force. If San Diego State can run this ball then they control the game clock here making it tough on Ohio to control this game. My algorithm has Ohio by 7.5 with the total at 55 here but I do not want to take this side if the Aztecs can pound the ball well against this poor Ohio defense. This game has Live Betting written all over it. See if San Diego State can establish the run and go ahead and bet from the side there.
Lean Ohio -3
Dec 20th. The Gasparilla Bowl, Tampa Bay Florida – Marshall vs South Florida +2.5 O/U 55.5
Now this bowl should be called the “unfair” bowl similar to Wisconsin vs Miami of last year. I am not sure why the bowl committee does this but it is what it is. South Florida gets to play their bowl game at home in their own stadium while Marshall will have to hope that some of their fans will show up having to travel about 900 miles away. Now I would call Marshall a “solid” to better than average team on both sides of the ball at 5.5 yards per play and allowing 4.75. 4.4 yards per rush is pretty good as well. South Florida on the other hand has a better offense at 6 yards per play but they give up 5.75. The Bulls are a running team at 5 yards per carry but it plays into Marshall’s strength allowing only 2.9 yards per run which is top 5 in the nation. S Florida played the easier part of their schedule in the beginning racking up 7 wins in a row but then when the competition got better they lost 5 games in a row and none of them were even close. I am going to handicap this game based on complete stats with USF home field. My numbers are Marshall 28 to USF 26.5. Being that the spread is -2.5 at a total of 55.5 I really have no play in this game and lean to the under.
Lean under 55.5
Dec 21st. The Bahamas Bowl, Nassau Bahamas – Florida International vs Toledo -5.5 O/U 68.5
I have to admit that I took this one earlier at +6. This is one of those spots where you try and guess motivation. Now I know it is hard to guess that but let’s take a shot. Toledo worked hard achieving this bowl game and they really deserved it. As a matter of fact they haven’t missed a bowl game since 2009. FIU on the other hand made their first bowl game in a long time last year and are still waiting on winning one. Now FIU is a good rushing and passing team and they only struggle against the run allowing 4.9 yards per rush. The Rocket’s on the other hand are very good running the ball and stopping the pass but they are also a little suspect against the run allowing 4.6 yards per rush. There is a reason why Toledo is favored here and that is they are a Mac team who runs the ball better and stops the run more adequately. The true question to me is will they actually be motivated in this bowl game? Due to the fact that FIU’s defense is slightly better as well as in yards per point on both sides of the ball, my algorithm has this much closer to a pick-em with a slight advantage to the Panthers. Plus you certainly can’t hate the fact that FIU is a second best 9-2 ATS. I have to believe that these Ohio kids from up north in the cold do not have a ton of opportunities to be on the beach while FIU lives on the beach and is dying to win this game. FIU is all business here while Toledo will be partying under the palm trees.
FIU +5.5 and ML Sprinkle lean under 68.5
Dec 21st The Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Boise Idaho Smurf Turf – Western Michigan vs BYU -12 O/U 48.5
Both of these teams really deserve each other. Western Michigan is probably the worst Bowl team out there this year while BYU lied to all of us and pretended to be good by beating Wisconsin and Arizona, then to get destroyed by Washington and Utah State. I bet these Cougers have cost people some good money this year and therefore deserve to have to play in Boise Idaho with uncle Rico on the sidelines watching. The Broncos went 4-8 ATS this year and very much downhill since they lost PJ Fleck to Minnesota. They also deserve this bowl. I am going to keep this disgusting game short and sweet. BYU is going to run all over this team and control the ball. The Cougars can stop the run allowing only 3.7 yards per rush and played a much harder schedule. Sharp money hit BYU early and now there is no more value for me in this game. I do think the back door will be wide open here so I lean Western Michigan +12 and Lean the under 48.5
Lean W Michigan +12 and Small lean to the under 48.5
Another fantastic weekend for the OddsBreakers! 3-1 in the NFL, 3-0 in Collage Basketball and 2-2 in Bowl games. Today we recap our action last weekend and then get into some Bowl games for this week and Saturday December 22nd. D-Nasty then comes in to break down Fantasy Football week 16. Key injuries, waivers and break out players.
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Sports Betting & WageringAudio Player
Cleveland vs Denver – 3
Well here are 2 teams that are really pretty much in the same situation. Both teams are 3rd in their division and have almost the same records with Cleveland 5-7-1 and Denver 6-7. Now Cleveland has been on the up since they fired coach Hugh Jackson and decided to go with Freddie Kitchens. Denver on the other hand still has some coach controversy over Vance Joseph. When looking at the team stats you have to give it to Denver slightly on defense averaging about 25 less yards per game and Cleveland slightly on offense averaging about 4 more yards per game. The handicap I love here is the situation. Cleveland is still a very motivated team trying to prove that they will be finally not just relevant but maybe a playoff team next year while Denver pretty much just had their playoff hopes crushed last week at San Francisco. What is now even worse for Denver is that they really got hit hard with the Injury bug over the last few weeks losing Emmanual Sanders, Jeff Heuerman, and cornerback Chris Harris. They also had a ton of people banged up from last game who are questionable. Because of this and their season crushing situation, I see Cleveland not only covering this spread but also winning this game outright.
Cleveland +3 and ML
Philadelphia vs LA Rams -9
Well if you saw the Eagles Season win total around 9 or 9.5 it is because of the brutal schedule’s that Superbowl teams get. The NFL is the great equalizer in that aspect anyways. The Eagles have not been the team of last year and can really only beat up on the bad teams. Last week Amari Cooper exposed their injured secondary and was able to go for over 200 yards with an average QB throwing them the ball. Now the Eagles have to travel to LA where they play one of the 4 best teams in the league who was embarrassed last week in Chicago. This is their second road game in a row and they are about to experience some amazing athlete’s. The eagles also just lost Corey Clement who was the last RB to play in last years Superbowl before losing Ajayi in early October. The Rams are a top 3 offense in both points and yards per game with a very disruptive defense. Their secondary played lights out last week vs the Bears with Talib back at corner. Being that the Eagles are a bottom 5 rushing team and Carson Wentz will not even be playing…
LA Rams -9 all the way to -13.5
Greenbay vs Chicago -5.5
Now I do not really understand why the spread went down so much because the situation does not match up. Most power ratings have the bears at about a 5 to 6 point favorite here and maybe people think that this is a let down spot for Chicago for beating the top team in the NFL last week. Let down spots do not factor in division clinching games and I do not understand why people would think that. If the Bears win this game, not only do they clinch a playoff spot, but they also clinch the NFC North division which has been their first goal starting with the rebuild that happened 4 years ago. To add to this, it is also a huge revenge spot for the bears going back to their first game vs the Packers where they gave up a 21 point lead in the second half making Aaron Rodgers look like a football god and choking that game away. I would actually rank the Revenge spot higher than the division clinching spot. Now everyone thinks after last week that Mike McCarthy got fired the Packers are a better team. That is 100% WRRRRROOOOOOONG. Now that the Packers got that coach firing win past them they will come back to earth and prove to the world that they still have many of the same personnel and locker room problems that they have had in the past. When it comes to defensive efficiency, there is no D like the bears this year. Mitch Trubisky knows that the Bears won last week in spite of some of his mistakes and he will be better this week. I am going with the ANGRY BEARS
Bears -5.5
LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs -3.5
This line smells and it is a total trap game. Teams tend to not play well after going overtime the week before and especially on a short week. It was also clear that the Chargers were looking ahead to this game. Both teams have some major running back woes over the last few weeks.
Bets that I will be on is the Vikings for their offensive coordinator getting fired but waiting for the line to get below 7
NO PLAY and lean to the under 53.5
Teaser: I call this the home dog and don’t let your coach get fired teaser. Carolina Panthers to +12 and the New York Jets to +12.5
North Texas +11 to +7.5 vs Utah State was a sharp side but has been over steamed down to a pretty low number
FIU +6 to +5.5 vs Toledo remains sharp
BYU -12 vs Western Michigan remains Sharp
Houston +5 to +3 vs Army is a sharp side
Boston College +3 vs Boise State is a sharp side
Baylor +6.5 to +3.5 vs Vanderbilt remains sharp
Purdue +5 to +3.5 vs Auburn is sharp
Syracuse +7 to +1.5 vs West Virginia was the move when Will Greer announced he will not be playing in the bowl game.
Iowa State +6.5 to +3.5 vs Washington State remains sharp
Some Buy back on Florida +7.5 vs Michigan
Virginia Tech +6.5 to +5 vs Cincinnati
Northwestern +7 vs Utah is gaining interest
Mississippi State -5 to -7 vs Iowa – I disagree and will tell you right now that I will be on Iowa
Sharp Totals:
Appalachian State vs Middle Tennessee under 50
Houston vs Army under 67.5 to 60 was a huge move and I still think there is value there
Boston College vs Boise State over 55.5
Cal vs TCU under 41.5 a 48% difference. Wow that is big for a low number
Dual action on Wisconsin vs Miami under 48 – 99% of the money on the under
West Virginia vs Syracuse Under 74 to 68 cause of Will Grier
Stanford vs Pitt over 52
Dual Action on NC State vs Texas A & M over 58.5
Sharp NFL:
Indianapolis -2.5 hosting Dallas
Buffalo PK to -2.5 Hosting Detroit
Arizona +9 at Atlanta
San Francisco +7 to +4.5 vs Seattle
Philadelphia +9.5 at LA
Carolina +7 to +6 hosting New Orleans
Sharp NFL totals:
Houston vs NY Jets under 41.5
Dallas vs Indianapolis under 47
Dual Action on Bears vs Packers under 46.5 to 45
Philadelphia vs LA under 53.5
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil discusses the next set of bowl games with some plays and some leans. We then get into more Sharp Line Movement in the NCAA and the NFL. Cub Fan Danny @cubfandanny then comes in to break down some NFL Plays for week 15! We also spoke a bit about the state of the Vikings after the firing of John DeFilippo.
College: San Diego State vs Ohio – UAB vs North Illinois – Florida International vs Toledo and more!
NFL: Green Bay vs Chicago – NY Jets vs Houston – Cleveland vs Denver – Philadelphia vs LA Rams and more!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 50% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit www.theoddsbreakers.com or for our podcast early for 14.99 a monmth please visit www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
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Sports Betting & Wagering
Auto-nation Cure Bowl in Orlando Florida – Tulane vs Louisiana +3.5 O/U 59
Well here we go right out of the gates here with a game between an option team in Tulane with a decent defense against a high powered Louisiana offense at 6.7 yards per play with a very bad defense. The reason that you see a spread of 3.5 is because of the fact that Louisiana plays in the Sun belt which is looked at as less of a conference and the Ragin Cajun’s defense should allow Tulane to almost score at will giving up 6.4 yards per play. Now we said this about the Sun Belt and how they all sucked last year and then they of course went ahead and went 5-0 in bowl games upsetting the hell out of teams. Being that Tulane also gives up a healthy 5.6 yards per play I really do not think Louisiana will be short of any points here. One would think that Louisiana isn’t the better running team against an option team but they do average 5.7 yards per rush over 4.6 for Tulane. I like the fact that the Ragin Cajuns have about 2 weeks to prepare for this team. I really can’t bet the over in good conscious when Louisiana ranks 115th in plays per game and Tulane ranks 70th but i’ll take the hook.
Louisiana +3.5 and lean over 59
New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque NM – N Texas vs Utah State -9 O/U 66.5
So this spread was at 11 and sharp money hit the N Texas side due to Utah State’s coach Matt Wells going to Texas Tech and will not be coaching the bowl game. For a while some people were calling this Utah State team the best group of 5 team, but in my opinion, that Michigan State close loss isn’t really looking quite as good at the end of the season. Now Utah State was a very nice team to bet on at 9-3 ATS this year and led by a very good quarterback Jordan Love but looking at their schedule I believe it was pretty easy. North Texas on the other hand is in an inferior division (or supposed to be) and hasn’t even played a ranked team so you can’t exactly give them much there. Both of these teams are pretty equal on defense allowing 5.1-ish yards per play but Utah state has the slight edge on offense at 6.9 yards per play over 6.4. Power ratings have Utah State by 10 but I think this bowl game could be a bit closer that that due to losing Matt Wells and facing a motivated team.
Lean N Texas +9
The Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas NV – Arizona State vs Fresno State -4.5 O/U 53.5
You play to win the game! Right Hermy? Well Herm Edwards has done a fantastic job this year going 7-5 straight up as well as 7-5 ATS. Nobody thought this team would be in the mix this year for the Pac 12 south and they just missed making it in losing to Oregon by 2 points. ASU is well coached and they have a solid defense allowing only 4.6 yards per play. Their offense isn’t too shabby either. Fresno State on the other hand also had an amazing season sealing the Mountain West championship and cashing our 6-1 ticket. AT 9-4 against the spread this team was very under appreciated. I am actually surprised that Jeff Tedford hasn’t gotten any big offers from power 5 schools. Fresno State has a very solid offense at 6.2 yards per play and a similar defense to ASU allowing 4.7 yards per play. Now the big news here to ASU that hit them pretty hard was that N’Keal Harry isn’t going to play this game and hold out for the NFL draft. Harry was the Sun Devil’s best WR by far with over 1000 receiving yards. This is definitely a big hit to this team but I also think the spread too big at -4.5 being that ASU had a harder strength of schedule. The only ranked team that Fresno State played is Boise State and they went 1-1 this year against them. I am going to watch this spread go up and up and most likely take ASU.
Strong Lean to ASU+4.5
The Camellia Bowl, Montgomery Alabama – Eastern Michigan vs Georgia Southern -1 O/U 47.5
All I have to say is “Go Eagles!” So I do not understand this line so much. I think it is more because of the bias against the Sun Belt honestly. My Power ratings have Georgia Southern as a 2.5 favorite and Sagarin has them as a 1 pointer. I must be wrong right? Well what I am definitely not wrong about is not too many people from Michigan are excited to go to Montgomery Alabama for a bowl game and I am also sure of the fact that Georgia Southern is only a little 4.5 hour drive away. I am also sure that Eastern Michigan is great against the pass in beating Purdue, Toledo and keeping up with Buffalo this year but they are bad against the run giving up 4.4 yards per carry losing to San Diego State, Northern Illinois and another option team Army by 15 points. The Georgia Southern Eagles this year average 5.3 on the ground and should be able to run all over this team.
Georgia Southern -1
New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans LA – Middle Tennessee St vs Appalachian State -7 O/U 50.5
Ok, this line got bet a bit down due to a few things. Scott Satterfield is moving on from Appalachian State to Louisville and this is Brent Stockstill’s last game playing for his dad at Middle Tennessee State. Now this line is also about perception here. Like I said before, the Sun belt hasn’t been getting the props it deserves and I think that it is WROOOOOOONG. The Mountaineers have played great against passing teams such as Arkansas State, LA Lafayette, and of course taking Penn State down to the wire. This team’s only weak spot is against the run. Did I mention that the Blue Raiders are not a polished running team? The Blue Raiders also only average 5.5 yards per play on offense to the Mountaineers 6.4. The Mountaineers also are much better on D allowing 4.3 yards per play to 5.4. This is a full 1 net yard per play difference and it will come up big in this game. Now I know that there is an interim coach for the Mountaineers and his Name is Mark Ivy. He has been with the Organization for 7 years now and I do not think the players will all of a sudden take a dive because of him. There is no real home field advantage in this bowl for anyone so I am going against the motivational narrative for the Blue Raiders and lean Appalachian State -7
Lean Appalachian State -7
