Sunday night the Hawks start their 4 game road trip in Los Angeles at the Staples Center, they come in on a 3 game losing skid. The Lakers have seemed to figure things out winning 4 of their last 5 after starting 2-5, that includes last nights 101-86 victory in Sacramento. The lines for tonight are Lakers -11.5 o/u 238. Although the Lakers look better every night, I dont think they can cover the number here. Typically teams play their best in their first road game of a trip, I think ATL will have a lot of energy and effort on both ends of the floor. Lakers will have a real possibility of coming out flat, they played in Sacramento last night and tonight will be their 5th game in 8 days. The Lakers are 0-4 ATS as a home favorite so far and I don’t see a number like 11.5 being the 1st one they cover. I also really like the under here, ATL and LA are both fast paced teams (1st, 3rd in NBA) couple that with two of the lower rated defenses (29th, 28th) I believe thats why were seeing a number like 241 be the opening number. But the Lakers are on no days rest and ATL will be playing a little later than usual so I look for a slow start from both offensively. Trae young averaging 18.4 points a game will be the key to ATL covering and possibly winning, if they can get some production from Jeremy Lin this will be an easy cover. I like the under as a better play, but I also like ATL +11.5
Free play of the day: Lakers/Hawks Under 238 (3u) & Hawks +11.5 (1u)
Things are going to get interesting in week 10 for sure. There are some interesting lines on the board that we could select from however a lot of these teams we have used to get us to this moment. So far since we started this series in week 5 we have used the Patriots, Vikings, Rams, Steelers, and the Chiefs all top teams in there respected conferences.
This weeks top options
Philadelphia Eagles vs the Cowboys
Packers vs the Dolphins
Saints vs the Bengals
The Eagles
The Birds are soaring as of late and I expect that to continue. They rushed Wentz back and he looked rusty at first but has looked better week after week. The Eagles front 7 on D is very talented and should be able to contain Zeke. That will force Dak to throw the ball and for some reason the Eagles secondary plays much better at home. I also like that the Eagles are coming off the bye and the Cowboys played on Monday Night.
The Packers.
The Packers are currently 3-4-1. If that record does not scream Packers need a win I’m not sure what does. The Packers will roll in this game. The Packers know every game is a must win with the Bears and Vikings ahead of them. On the other side of the coin the Dolphins haven’t looked great lately struggling to put up points Brock will start under center for the Dolphins and I expect him to throw a pick or 2 in this game.
The Saints
The Saints are coming off a huge win last week against the Rams. I expect this to be a tough spot for the Saints as they are riding high off a huge win. The Bengals are without AJ Green which makes me think the defense of the Bengals knows they need to step up even more. I would avoid the Saints this week. I do think they get it down but a let down could be in order from Andy Dalton.
TGIF, lets get some money this weekend! NBA Totals have been pretty good to us on the free play write ups. We’re going to try and keep that momentum going, today we focus on the Charlotte Hornets traveling to Philadelphia to take on the Sixers. The total is sitting at 225.5 and I love the under, these two teams are primed for a hard fought defensive battle and I was looking for a total around 212. Sixers carry a perfect home record and will look to keep that going, our biggest concern will be overtime. The Hornets are much more efficient but their pace is in the bottom half of the league. Both these teams are stronger defensively than offense and know each other well. 115-110 games arent typically the types of games these teams play and I don’t see it tonight. I predict a 104-98 type score and we should feel comfortable with this play from start to finish.
Today we cover a little big about the best ATS teams as well as the Alabama look ahead lines! Michigan Wolverine fans now have another favorite team to cheer for! Then we get into our college football week 11 free picks, sharp movements and NFL week 10.
College: Mississippi State vs Alabama – Maryland vs Indiana – Kansas vs Kansas State – Washington State vs Colorado and more!
NFL: Detroit vs Chicago – Jacksonville vs Indianapolis – Dallas vs Philadelphia and more!
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Well we all knew that Colorado was fake news right? We saw them lose 4 games in a row and now have to face the best team in the Pac 12. Mike Leach’s Cougars are having special year and their Quarterback Gardner Minshew has over a 70% completion rate with a 27-7 TD to Interception ratio. After what Wasu has done you might think this is a let down spot right? It’s not. Their let down spot was last week hosting Cal and they barely got through it. Now they are going in to face a decimated Colorado team that has 3 Wrs and 2 place kickers on the injury report. This will definitely hurt Steven Montez’s passing game where he has a 67% completion percentage and 17-5 TD to Interception ratio. The Cougers on the other hand are injury free and rank top 20 in yards per play at 6.4 while only giving up 5 on defense. Colorado is at 5.8 yards per play but gives up 5.4 on defense. 1/2 yard per play net difference. Washington state ranks first at 8-1 ATS while Colorado ranks 5-4 and has yet to be a home underdog. This one is pretty easy for me.
WASU -4.5 to -7
Kansas vs Kansas St -12
What kind of business does Kansas State this year have laying -12 to anybody? On paper both of these teams are pretty equal only producing 5 yards per play while giving up 6. The JHawks have the slight edge in points per game and Wildcats have the edge in strength of schedule. Neither of these teams will make a bowl but they will be playing this game for pride. This game may be a little windy and you can see this by the total of only 45 points. Both teams will run the ball here and Kansas actually has the edge here allowing only 4.2 yards per run while Kansas State allows a large 5.35. Lastly KState Quarterback Skyler Thompson left last weeks game in the first quarter and is highly questionable for this game. Even tho both teams have 3 wins it looked at as a much better season for Jhawks then the Wildcats. This is also a revenge spot for Kansas and I think they get it done here and possibly win the game.
Kansas +12 and ML Sprinkle
Mississippi State vs Alabama -26
I know, I know. What the hell are you doing Kiev? Why fade Bama when they are 6-3 ATS. Well its pretty much because I have too this week. I mean we see Bama’s offense this year looking as good or better than Oklahoma ranking just second behind them in yards per play. Bama is number 1 in points per game just over Utah State at 52 points. Shockingly Alabama ranks only 5th in points allowed and 10th in yards per play but that is probably because of garbage time. Ok. Here is the handicap. Last year Mississippi state should have beaten Bama and blew it at the end. It was a Jalen Hurts led team but still many of the same players this year. The Bulldogs on the other hand return even MORE players from last year than Alabama and these kids remember how to play this team. Huge revenge spot and this game has been circled. Mississippi state is built to put up a fight against Bama with their RPO game and it works against good teams. Also interesting Mississippi state’s defense ranks 5th in yards per play and 3rd in points allowed at 12. Ahead of Bama in these categories. They also are top 22 in yards per play at 6.5 even after those terrible losses to Kentucky and Florida. This is also a let down spot for Bama after beating their Rival LSU. I am forgoing the first half bet with Bama and Taking the 26 points. I like it down to 23.
Mississippi State +26 and ML sprinkle at +2000
Maryland vs Indiana -3 and O/U 55
Here are 2 teams that have been bad lately but who can blame them. Look who both teams played the last 4 weeks or so. Literally the best of the big 10. What I like here is that both of these teams can make a bowl game if they just win 1 or 2 more games. 1 for Maryland and 2 for Indiana. This should motivate these teams to play well and in turn score some points. What I like about this game is that both teams score about 27 and 28 points per game even factoring in those hard defenses that they played. Maryland plays slow at 60 plays per game but if you look deeper into it the reason is that they haven’t had a close game since week 1 vs Texas. Either Maryland or their opponent was running the clock in the 4th quarter every game. On the other hand Indiana plays super fast ranking 12th at 79 plays per game and the fact that they are at home, they may control some of that pace. Indiana gives up some points too at 30 per game and 5.8 yards per play. I love the over here at 55 and I have this as a pick-em so lean is to Maryland.
Maryland Over 55
Premium Plays:
Michigan vs Rutgers
Baylor vs Iowa State
FIU vs UTSA
Akron vs Buffalo
South Carolina vs Florida
Mississippi vs Texas a&m
Ohio State vs Michigan State
Quick hitters:
Taking Fresno vs Boise State over 54 – Both teams are much better in offense than they were last year. The Broncos average 38 points per game and 6.3 yards per play and Fresno State averages 40 points per game at 6.3 yards per play. Shootout Central
Utah State – 31 Hosting San Jose State – Utah State scoring 50 per game and allowing 22 per game now plays one of the worst teams in the country. Utah State is 8-1 ATS and 5-0 at home. The Aggie’s play fast and will score fast against the Spartans here. Power ratings has this a 37 point difference. Since San Jose State beat UNLV 2 weeks ago they are not dying for a W. This team is done for the season.
Mississippi vs Texas A&M over 66 – Ole Miss is 6-3 in totals bets and I do not see any change here. The last 3 games they averaged 89 plays per game and know how to score through the air. Jordan Ta’amu has a 65% completion percentage and 3000 passing yards. He also can run the ball very well. The Rebels have the 5th worst defense in college football allowing 7.5 yards per play and 39 points per game. Texas A&M’s only weakness is against the pass as you saw last week vs Auburn. They also play pretty fast on offense at 77 plays per game and should be able to lay 50 on this team.
Boston College +20 vs Clemson – Boston college was built to beat this team. Their defense really isn’t that bad ranking 14th in yards per play at 4.7. Obviously we know what Clemson is but can Freshman Trevor Lawrence handle the pressure of playing a night game at Alumni Stadium. Much of this BC team has returned from last year and this is another revenge spot. I just predict a hickup for c+Clemson here and AJ Dillon might find running room with their fast paced offense.
Cincinnati -14 vs USF – USF is over rated and we knew it all year Now they finally play a great defense that can also Score.
The Sharp Side of the Force:
Ohio at Miami Ohio shot up from -3 to -5.5 and now I see some buyback
NC State from -15 to -17 hosting Wake Forest
Kansas at K State from +12 to +10.5
UNC at Duke from +10.5 to +10 Rivalry and I can see that too
Charlotte at Marshall +14.5
UTEP hosting Middle Tennessee State +15 to +13.5 its a let down spot for UTEP
Liberty +23.5 at Virginia
East Carolina at Tulane +15.5 to +14
FAU hosting Western Kentucky -17 to -20
Coastal Carolina +6.5 hosting Arkansas State
Cincinnati hosting USF -12 to -14
Arkansas hosting LSU +14 to +13.5 this is a players fade on LSU after Bama
Stanford -23.5 hosting Oregon State
Sharp Totals:
Dual action on Florida vs South Carolina under 54
Dual action on Wisconsin vs Penn State over from 51 to 55.5 – I can’t trust the QBs here
Washington state vs Colorado under 60.5 a 49% difference
Ole Miss vs Alabama over 51.5 to 53
Baylor vs Iowa State under 51 will be cold
Dual Action on App State vs Tex State under 48
Rice vs Louisiana Tech under 52 a 66% difference is pretty huge
Dual Action Temple at Houston over 69
FSU vs Notre Dame under 54.5 a 57% difference
NFL Week 10:
Detroit vs Chicago -6.5
Comon! Did you think we were not going to go back to the well on this one? The Bears rank 4th in overall efficiency according to football outsiders and the Lions rank 29th! The Bears pass rush has been great lately and that is without Kalil Mack who may be back this week. The Lions gave up 10 sacks last week against the Vikings and now are facing one of the best defenses in the League. On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense is starting to Gel, they are not turning the ball over like in the past and they remain pretty healthy. The offensive production is actually pretty similar with a slight edge to the bears in yards per game 359-353 for Detroit but Defensively the Bears have the edge by 35 yards per game. The Bears are top 3 in scoring defense allowing 19 points per game. Most power ratings have the bears by 7.5 points here. Oh and did I mention that Kalil Mack is back!?
Chicago -6.5
Jacksonville vs Indianapolis -3
So if you run the numbers here these teams are pretty similar from a net yards perspective with only a difference of 14 yards. Jags have the defensive advantage and the Colts have the offensive advantage. One difference in these stats is that the Colts have been a very injured team on defense and finally have some players back. Since the Jags have lost offensive tackles Will Richardson and Josh Wells, you have not seen the last years Jags team. Since then they lost to the Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Texans and the Eagles and none of those games were even that close. The biggest thing that sticks out to me here is the yards per point. It takes only 13 yards for the colts to score a point and it takes 21 for the Jaguars. Much of this is due to poor QB play from Blake Bortles. Luck is a top 15 QB this year and is now getting back Jack Doyal. Blake Bortles is a top 30 QB. To add to it the Jags have 3 cornerbacks Questionable for this game. The Quarterback play isn’t even close here and If I am going to look at these teams and the line tells me that this would be a Pick-em on a Neutral Field, I am siding the the QB.
Colts -3
Quick Hitter:
Dallas vs Philadelphia -6.5 I love betting on teams after a bye and fading teams on short weeks. In this situation you have BOTH and you also have a very good coach facing a very bad coach. My numbers have this at about -6.5 as it is but it doesn’t factor in the time that Philly had without Carson Wentz and Alshawn Jeffery. You have to upgrade this and I believe that Philli is on a mission here to take back control of this division. Dallas also lost Guard Connor Willams and LB Sean Lee so this is an easy play for me
Today has been circled on a lot of people’s calendars, ESPN being one of them and for good reason. We’ll get to experience a Heavyweight doubleheader on Opening night. #1 Kansas vs #10 Michigan State, & #2 Kentucky vs #4 Duke. I’d like to focus on the Wildcats and Blue Devils, these two teams square off in Indianapolis and could meet again in Minneapolis this years host of the Final Four. I don’t think weve ever had a better opening night matchup since the one and done era started in College Hoops. Duke comes in the favorite to take the championship with UK following close behind. We can literally go down the lineup and its a great matchup at literally every position. At Point Guard we’ll see freshmen Tre Jones and Aston Hagens, we know Jones’ brother Tyus real well but we havent seen much of Tre this preseason due to injury. Hagens on the other hand hasn’t shown any weakness other than his outside shot and has amazing game as well as a 2 inch advantage on Jones. Duke has a steller Freshman at the 2 and Kentucky will rely on the sophomore Green to neutralize Barrett’s athleticism with experience. Both teams have Freshman at the small forward with no visible advantage. I believe P.J. Washington might be the only player in College Basketball able to matchup with Zion Williamson, not only in size but I think hes a bit more refined every where else, other than dunking of course. At Center we’ve got a reclassed Senior Reid Travis and junior Delaurier. This will be Delaurier’s first year starting in Durham and has been a solid bench player the last two years. Travis 19 and 8 at Stanford and is looking to boost his draft stock by playing around next years top lottery picks, tonight would be a great opportunity to show his abilities. I think tonight Kentucky is the better team with a better bench on a neutral site. Give the Duke Freshmen some time to develop chemistry and get use to College Hoops, tonight the Wildcats and the moment will be too much for the Blue Devils.
Today we recap a kinda slow but still great week of college football! We break down last weeks games as well as some great betting spots for week 10! D-Nasty then comes in to break down Fantasy Football week 9. Bye weeks, injuries, waivers and break out players.
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NBA free pick is back. Now that we’ve gathered some data, I feel more confident with making a play or two. Tonight let’s focus on the Pelicans/Thunder matchup. Anthony Davis is trying to get the Pelicans back on track after a 4-0 start to the season. The Thunder have won 4 in a row and want to continue their winning ways. I envision a shoot out tonight in OKC, with two of the faster paced teams going at it. After losing 5 in a row Anthony Davis is going to be at his best knowing Russell Westbrook is on the other side. New Orleans has scored the 3rd most points but have also allowed the 2nd most points. OKC has no problem scoring averaging 110 points a game offensively. The best best for tonight is Over 235 in this ball game I see a 130-125 type of game
I am happy to say we got the win but things will tougher down the stretch since we have used some top quality teams including the Patriots, Vikings, Rams, and Steelers. However there is still tons of the value if we dig deep enough. Remember no point of saving a good team its all about win and move on and figure the rest out later.
Top options
Chicago Bears on the road against the Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs on the road vs Browns
Carolina Panthers at home vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bears
Da Bears are in a good spot to pick up a much need win in the NFC North. They currently sit atop the division which is heading into week 9 is huge. One thing that scares me about this huge spread is the fact that this should be a low scoring game. The Bills have an above average defense that will keep this game from getting out of hand. However, the Bills offense is not good enough to do damage to the very impressive Bears defense. The Bears should get it done here.
Chiefs
Honestly, this game is a no-brainer. The Browns are in turmoil firing Hue Jackson and Todd Haley this week. Greg Williams takes over as the intern head coach for the Browns and honestly he is worse than the two coaches who already got fired. His claim to fame is being the ringleader of the bounty hunter defense. The Chiefs offense will continue to roll this week and I can see them blowing out this team that is currently in shambles. Expect a Big day out of Kareem Hunt.
Panthers
The Panthers have been playing excellent as of late. They have won 4 out of their last 5 with wins over serious playoff contenders the Baltimore Ravens and the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles. However the Bucs are handing the offense over to Fitzpatrick who plays well in the backup quarterback role since there are not a lot of expectations.
