12-8 last week in NCAA Football and we have a great show for you today at the twilight of the College Football regular season. Today we break down last weeks games and then go into our season win total bets we made before the season started as well as some great betting spots for week 13! D-Nasty then comes in to break down Fantasy Football week 12. Bye weeks, injuries, waivers and break out players.
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Happy Saturday! Typically the focus is on College football but we can get some money today on the Court, I’d like to focus on Hornets and Sixers playing in Charlotte tonight. I try to balance trends and situations when Capping an 82 game regular season and I think we’ve got a lot of value in this Pick. Sixers are playing back to back after a hard fought game vs Utah last night while the Hornets are on 3 days rest. The number is only Hornets -2.5, I think it should be more like 6.5. Hornets are 4-2 at home, 3-1 in the Division and 2-1 on 2+ Days rest (ATS), while the sixers are 2-7 on the road 0-3 in the Division and 0-4 with no rest (ATS). Sixer have both matchups this season but only by 2 & 1, Jimmy Butler wasnt apart of either matchup so it’ll be a new look for Charlotte to diagnose. Not only do the trends point in Charlottes direction but the schedule has to, these teams played 8 days ago, the Hornets have played 2 games since then while the Sixers have play 4. I look for Charlotte to have the legs late and as long as they can be better than their season average 76% from FT they win and cover no problem
I’ll keep this short and sweet tonight. Loyola-Marymount rolls in to DC a perfect 3-0. Georgetown looks to stay unbeaten as well.
Georgetown’s offense has been rolling as of late scoring in the mid 80s their last two games. They are playing at a high pace as well. Their defense has been suspect though as they gave up 78 to Central Connecticut State. I look for more of the same here.
Loyola-Marymount has tended to play to their opponents so far this year. Since Georgetown wants to play fast, I see this being a high possession game. They also have the firepower to keep up with Georgetown.
Ok so we know that the Jaguars beat Boston College on Wednesday. Well woopty freaking doo as what Chris Farley would have said. IUPUI beat a terrible Eastern Illinois team that ranks 287 on Kenpom at home by only 7 and shot out of their minds to beat Boston College. From Ken Pom perspective, the Spiders rank much higher from an offensive and defensive perspective and its literally by 125 spots. It’s time to bet the let down spot here.
Well I hope that everyone is over the hangover that was the Breeders Cup. As most horse players know this is the off season in horse racing, but an existing Grade 3 stakes race, the Bob Hope, is coming up this weekend at Del Mar race track. The race is a 7 Furlong or 7/8 of a mile race on the dirt for 2 year olds, for a purse of $100,000.
Number One Runner:
My top choice in this race would be #6 Sparky Ville : this horse has the most experience, with 5 life time starts with 2 wins, 1 place, and 1 show with a 96 beyer speed figure. He competed in the Best Pal Stakes (Grade 2) finishing 2ed with a 83 beyer, and competed in the Del Mar Futurity (Grade 1) but finished a disappointing 6th with a 71 beyer but his next outing at Santa Anita race track for the Sunny Slope Stakes and finished 1st with 96 beyer. His workouts have been good as well, the workouts show that he has been consistent over 4 and 5 furlongs, keeping a pace of 12 seconds per furlong.
Number two Runner:
Second choice in the this race is the #3 horse Mucho Gusto, trained by Bob Baffert, this horse only has 1 start, and a first place finish with a 96 beyer The workouts of this horse is consistent, the horse is running 12 seconds per furlong, except for one work that he ran 4 furlongs in 47.60 seconds. The only downside to this horse is his win came at Los Alamitos race track, where good horse look bad and bad horse look good. If playing exotics I wouldn’t leave him off the tickets.
Number Three Runner:
The last horse that I like would be the #2 Extra Hope, this horse has 4 life time starts and record is 1 win, 1 Place, 1 Show, and the other race finished 4th just out of the money. This horse has been inconsistent in its workouts recording 1.14.80 for 6 furlongs, 39.60 for 3 furlongs, 36.40 for 3 furlongs and 49 for 4 furlongs. If this horse gets to the lead, he is going to be hard to beat, if he shows up at all.
This is really the tale of 2 teams in a nutshell. One has been a disappointment down the stretch and one is motivated for getting better for next year. One team is great on offense and bad on defense and one team is great on defense and bad on offense. Yards per play you have Nebraska at 6.5 on offense and giving up 6.2 on defense and Michigan State 4.9 on offense and giving up 4.8 on defense giving Nebraska a slight edge in net yards per play. The fact that Michigan State just was devastated in their revenge spot against Ohio State makes me like the spot here for Nebraska. The fact that Michigan State lost their top WR Felton Davis a few weeks back and just lost their top RB LJ Scott for the rest of the season last game is huge. The fact that there is a QB controversy in Michigan State between Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi is a game changer.
Nebraska +2 and ML
Virginia vs Georgia Tech -6.5
Well Georgia tech has had a nice run in the ACC lately and a very nice win vs the Hurricanes but now it is time for their let down spot. If there is one thing that Bronco Mendenhall knows how to do from his days in the Mountain West, it is to stop the triple option. The Cavaliers are allowing only 4.2 yards per rush in a tough ACC conference while the Yellow Jackets allow 4.3. The key here is that Virginia can throw the ball as well and Bryce Perkins averages 7.6 yards per attempt with a 64% completion percentage. Georgia Tech this year is at a dismal 49% percentage and a 4-4 TD to interception ratio. The handicap is simple here for Virginia, stop the triple option and win the game.
Virginia +6.5
Kansas vs Oklahoma – 36.5
Kansas is that huge juggernaut in the way of Oklahoma getting to the big 12 championship and playoff birth right??? WROOOOOOOOONG. That would be West Virginia and that wonderful sandwich spot that they are in. The Sooners just got done playing their rival Oklahoma State in a very emotional game that came down to the end. Now they have West Virginia on the docket that will likely cost one of these teams playoff birth. This is the definition of a Sandwhich Spot. Plus this isn’t one of these pansey ass Kansas teams that can’t score. The Jhawks are averaging .3 yards per play and 4 points on offense more than last year, and .4 yards per play and 15 points on defense better than last year. Linkin Riley would be crazy to keep his starters in if he is up by 21 points in the second half.
Kansas +36.5
Oregon State vs Washington – 32.5
Another ugly dog here. I am not betting Oregon State because they are a good team here… I mean Oregon State gives up 7.5 yards per play. I am betting them because I know something about the Washington Huskies. The dogs have a huge tendency to play down to their opponent and Chris Peterson isn’t a blowout coach by any means. Lets look at the easier teams here. When they played Colorado they only won by 14. When they played Cal they lost by 2. When they played UCLA they won by only 7. ASU they won by 7. BYU by 28. So you see I think that they easily beat this team but take their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter. Oregon State at least can score some points. They average 27.5 per game and 5.4 yards per play. From a power ratings standpoint, I have Washington by 29 points but this is a pure look ahead spot to the Apple Cup and their huge game against Washington State.
Oregon State +32.5
Tulane vs Houston -10
This is a get up spot for Houston here and we have to look at what they do well. Well they score a ton of points running at 5.6 yards per rush and a total of 7.1 yards per play. They also Stop the run at 3.9 yards per rush. Their weakness is against the pass as we have seen against SMU. Tulane on the other hand can’t throw the ball well at all. They actually rank 110th in passing yards and they only pass 33% of the time. They are more of an option team unless they are down lots of points. Being that they run the ball they are playing into Houston’s strength of stopping the run. This win for Houston will clinch the American Athletic Conference west and I think that they put on on Tulane here.
Houston -10
Arizona vs Washington State -10
Ok this game may be an exciting one. This Arizona team hasn’t been putting up the numbers that it did last year due to bad coaching but I think over the last few games Kalil Tate decided to take over. He is healthy now and hungry for an upset. Over the last 3 games both of these teams have averaged over 76 plays per game and have been pouring on some offense. Arizona is averaging 39 points per game over that stretch and they played some decent teams in Oregon, UCLA, and Colorado. Washington State on the other hand is the class of the pac 12 and averages 38 points per game and over 6.2 yards per play. WASU has a huge game coming up that may have college football playoff implications and all signs point to a look ahead to Washington. They may have forgotton that this Kalil Tate led team scored 37 points against them and the final score was 58-37. This is a dangerous spot and I predict a close high scoring game.
Arizona +10 and Love the over 59
Premium Plays:
Memphis vs SMU – side
Utah State vs Colorado State
Louisiana Monroe vs Arkansas State
FIU vs Charlotte
Northwestern vs Minnesota
Quick Hitters:
Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt over 67 – Lets try this again. We almost hit this at Texas A&M but lost. Vandy is a worse defensive team than Texas A&M and they like to throw the ball a ton. Ole Miss is top 5 in yards per play, top 19 in points per game, top 30 in pace and Bottom 16 in defense. Both teams trying to win to make a bowl so I will take the over
Memphis vs SMU over 72.5 – I predict this game to be the biggest shootout of the week. Memphis is top 3 in yards per play at 7.5, top 6 in points per game at 45 and on the road they are terrible allowing 42 points per game. SMU on the other hand played Michigan and TCU in the non conference messing up their stats and since the UCF game they only lost to Cincinnati by 6, Beat Houston by 14 scoring 45 points at home, and scored 62 at Uconn. They are fighting for the AAC west and will put up a great fight here.
Syracuse +10.5 and ML sprinkle vs Notre Dame. If Northwestern is a +10 then Syracuse should be a +6 IMO
Sharp side of the force! – Sharp Line Movement
Tulane at Houston – +10 – I disagree with this
New Mexico hosting Boise State – +21.5 to 19.5
Dual Action on Toledo at Kent State
Wisconsin at Purdue – +6 to +4.5
Virginia at Georgia State – +6.5
Minnesota hosting Northwestern – +4 to +1.5
Umass at Georgia – +44 to +41
Middle Tennessee State at Kentucky – +16
Maryland hosting Ohio State – +17.5 to +14 – Becareful Here
NC State at Louisville – -14.5 to -16.5
FIU at Charlotte – -5.5 to -6.5 99% of the money on FIU
Arizona at Washington State – +10 to +9.5
Mississippi State hosting Arkansas – -19 to -21.5
Oklahoma hosting Kansas – -34 to -36.5
UTEP at Western Kentucky – +7
Nebraska hosting Michigan State – +2
Florida hosting Idaho – -40
Sharp Totals:
FAU vs N Texas Under 63
Dual Action on Memphis vs SMU over 72 to 73
Boise State vs New Mexico under 63
Iowa vs Illinois over 58.5 huge difference of 77%
Wisconsin vs Purdue under 52.5
Dual Action on Northwestern vs Minnesota under 51 to 47.5
Dual Action on Duke vs Clemson over 57.5 – 98% of money on over
Pittsburgh vs Jacksonville +6 – This game really looks like a huge revenge spot for Pittsburgh. I mean they lost at home to the Jaguars twice last year and were boosted right out of the playoffs. So most people are licking their chops on this one right? WROOOOOONG. How does this whole revenge theory work when Pittsburgh plays New England? Mike Tomlin isn’t a revenge type coach and I think now that the Laveon bell thing is settled, Pittsburgh doesn’t have to prove that they can win without him. On the other hand Doug Marone knows how to play this Pittsburgh team. Pound the ball with Fournette and control the clock. Jacksonville is staring to get healthier and they really are not that bad of a team. They rank 18th in total efficiency while the Steelers rank 11th. I have this game in my algorithm Pittsburgh wining by 3.5 points. I’ll grab the 6.
Jacksonville +6
Houston vs Washington +3
This is also the story of 2 teams. One is trending up and one is trending down. Washington really had a great start this season and surprisingly beat a few big teams like the Panthers and the Packers but what we didn’t see is that both of those teams were pretty banged up when they played the skins and maybe we over valued them. The redskins have been running the football very well until that Falcons game where they lost both of their starting guards and run blockers. Now last week they injured 3 Tackles and their great rookie Geron Christian tore his MCL. Their star tackle Trent Williams may miss another game with a thumb injury. The Redskins may not even have an offensive line this game! The Redskins are coming off a misleading score against the Bucs winning 16-3 but being outgained by over 200 yards. I really like that Keke Coutee should be back and get some target while Josh Norman covers De’Ondre Hopkins
Houston -3 – Take total sacks over for the game as well
Oakland vs Arizona -4
So there are 2 personalities with this Raiders team. The one who wants to play well at home for the Oakland fans that will lose their team in a few years, and the one who gave up on the season when they travel. The Raiders are 1-3 ATS when on the road while Arizona is 3-2 at home. As you saw last game this Cardinals team is improving with their new QB Josh Rosen and they do still have some talent there. Now with Bryan Leftwitch as their offensive coordinator they played pretty well against the Chiefs and came back against the 49ers at home a few weeks back. The simple handicap here is that Oakland is the number 3 worst team against the run and 12th worst against the pass. The Cardinals are actually 4th Best against the pass due to guys like Patrick Peterson and Antoine Bethea. Lastly Oakland ranks dead last in sacks per game at .9 while Arizona ranks 5th at 3.2. Expect Arizona to get things right on Sunday.
Arizona -4
Dallas vs Atlanta -3 is a premium
Teaser – Chiefs to + 9.5 and Carolina vs Detroit Under to 57 – If any team can back door its the Kansas City Chiefs. The Carolina Defense deserves more respect that this high total. I also think the Lions will run the ball more to protect Stafford. Matt Patricia is defensive minded and should be able to fix a few things this week.
