College Football Week 10

Texas A&M vs Auburn -6 O/U 49

Well I am going to go back to the well on this one.   I can’t really prepare numbers on this one because as you know the Aggies have played Alabama and Clemson while the Tigers toughest game was home vs LSU.   Their Washington win isn’t looking too good anymore either.  Auburn has a problem this year and that is their offensive line.   Their terrible line is the reason that they lost to Tennessee and if they can’t get Stidham going then they can’t win.  Texas A&M ranks 21st in the country in sacks per game.   I think this will make it a long day for Auburn.   I have this game  Auburn -1 in the Power Ratings.   I also kinda like the under here at 49 because both teams average less than 24 points vs conference opponents and have good defenses.

Texas A&M +6  ML sprinkle and under 49

FAU vs FIU -3.5

So I was high on Florida Atlantic coming in but I think I may have jumped the gun a bit thinking their defense was going to get much better and I also thought that Chris Robinson can replace Jason Driskel.    Since last year the Owls have dropped 1 yard per play from 6.8 to 5.8 on offense and also lost .8 yards per play on defense now giving up 6 per play.   They lost too much offensive production and it shows.   The Golden Panthers on the other hand are the Florida Atlantic of last year.   They are 6-1 ATS this year and continue to be underrated.   They are averaging 6.4 yards per play and and giving up 5.4 of defense.   Their QB James Morgan has a 166 passer rating at 65% this year.   Chris Robinson of Florida Atlantic is only at 120.   I think this spread is a little light and it is only because what people remember that FAU did last year.    The owls are last at 1-7 ATS.

FIU -3.5 

Stanford vs Washington -9.5

What the hell happened to this Top 10 Preseason ranked teams?   No clue but one thing that I do know is that Jake Browning is kinda in the hot seat.  KJ Costello on the other hand when allowed to throw the ball has completed 67% of his passes for a 156 rating.   Browning is 12-8 TD to interception ratio and Costello is 17-6.   Both teams are around 6 yards per play on offense and now  I know that Washington shows a better defense than Stanford but look who they have played?   An offensively challenged Auburn, A Utah team early in the year, Oregon and no other ranked teams.  Stanford just went through a gauntlet of tough teams and came out ok.   Stanford is a marginal 4-4 ATS but Washington is 2-7.   Lastly it looks like Myles Gaskin of the Huskies may miss this game and so will a stud O lineman in Trey Adams.  Stanford has beaten Washington 2 of the last 3 years.  This game should be closer than 9.5 points

Stanford +9.5

Syracuse vs Wake Forest +5 O/U 75

Well this looks like a huge over under right.   Well it should be because both of these teams are top 6 in plays per game and both play extremely fast.   The truth is though that this number is still too low and I will explain why.    When 2 fast teams play against each other it is more of a multiplication affect on the pace rather than an average.   For example, if both of these teams play at 120% the speed of the average team the game does not end at 120% more plays.   It ends at 144% which means that the speed of these teams will feed off of each other making 20% more plays per game.   Both teams score a lot of points with Syracuse at 44 and Wake at 34.   Both these teams have defensive ranking in the 100s.  I have this game Syracuse winning 44-35.

Over 75

Quick Hitters

Navy vs Cinci under 50.   The Bearcats are amazing against the run allowing 3.4 yards per play.  This should be enough to stop the triple option and shut Navy down.   I see a lot of running this game because we know Navy can’t pass and Cinci runs the ball 62% of the time.   

Alabama first have cover:   Should be around 7.5.  They are now 8-0 so its an auto bet.   

Utah vs ASU Under 56 – This is a huge game for Utah to take full control of the Pac 12 south.   ASU in a let down spot.  Both teams are running teams with very good defenses against the run.   

Big Games

Alabama vs LSU +14.5 O/U 54.   Can LSU live up to the Hype?  Will this be the first time we see Tungaviola in the 4th Quarter?   The defensive numbers say under but the offensive numbers say over.   Maybe its best to take a first half under and a second half over?

West Virginia vs Texas -2 – Texas is now out of the playoffs and should be flat this week but its hard to bet against Tom Herman at home.   Lean is West Virginia here.  They are the closest team to Oklahoma in the Big 12

Notre Dame vs Northwestern +9.5 – Notre Dame could be kinda flat and happy here.   They may underestimate the Northwestern gritty team.   The number is about right but which Northwestern team shows up here?  The one that lost to Akron and almost to Rutgers or the one that beat Purdue, Wisconsin and almost Michigan?

Georgia vs Kentucky +9.5 – You can make an argument both ways here.   If Georgia scores first bet them live, if Kentucky scores first bet them.

Premium Plays

Penn State vs Michigan

Miami Ohio vs Buffalo

Minnesota vs Illinois

Syracuse vs Wake Forest

The Sharp side of the force!   Sharp money is on:

Arizona hosting Colorado -3

Baylor +7.5 vs Oklahoma State

Iowa State -14.5 at Kansas

Airforce +7 at Army

Nebraska +21.5 to +17.5 at Ohio State

Ole Miss +1 vs South Carolina – I don’t understand that one as much

Texas State +7 to +5.5 at Georgia State

Minnesota -9.5 at Illinois

Kansas State +8 at TCU

Tulane from +8 to +7 at South Florida – Scary one

Boston College from -1 to -2 at Va Tech

San Diego State -10.5 at New Mexico – we saw what Fresno State did to New Mexico

Dual Action on Ohio at Western Michigan from PK to -3

Dual Action on Utah State vs Hawaii 97% of money on Utah State

Sharp Totals

Ohio vs Western Michigan under 64.5 a 72% difference

Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee State under 53 a 58% difference

Texas San Antonio vs Arkansas State under 63.5

Georgia vs Kentucky under 44 – That says something about the spread

UTEP vs Rice over 45.5

Dual Action on the Navy vs Cincinnati under 50

Iowa vs Purdue over 51.5

Boston College vs Virginia Tech over 57.5

Charlotte vs Tennessee under from 50 to 45.5 big move but no value

Utah vs ASU under 56 a 78% difference

Houston vs SMU under 71 a 51% difference but I don’t like it

UCLA vs Oregon over 55.5 to 58.5

Stanford vs Washington under 46.5

Cal vs Washington State under from 55 to 50

Utah State vs Hawaii under 70.5

NFL Week 9

Tampa Bay vs Carolina -6.5

Ok, lets try this fade Fitzmagic thing again.   I know we got jobbed on this vs the Eagles, but I can’t trust him as a starter on the road.   If you look at the numbers it may even favor Tampa bay a bit but I think it is because Fitzpatrick was so great the first few games.   Carolina has improved their pass rush to 3 sacks per game the last 3 games.   The Panthers also have a top 10 defense in points allowed at 21 while Tampa is worst in the league at 33.   Now you look at the injury report and Tampa may have lost their corner back MJ Stewart and with Hargreaves and Conte out their backfield is very depleted.   Vita Vea is also banged up as well.    I like how Carolina’s offense has improved the last few games with Greg Olson back and I also like how DJ Moore is progressing.   The key here that I like to look at is yards per point.   Tampa bay needs 16.3 yards to score a point while Carolina only needs 14.1.  On defense Tampa gives up a league worst 12.1 yards per point while Carolina is top 10 at 16.2.   This is the main reason why Carolina ranks 4th in overall efficiency and Tampa ranks 29th.

Carolina -6.5

Atlanta vs Washington -2

Here is another story of a banged up shitty road team.  Atlanta is 0-2 ATS as a road team while Washington is 3-1 at home.   Atlanta lost Devonte Freeman this year and hasn’t been able to have that great run game that made them so good in the past.   They are 3rd worst in the league at 83 yards per game while Adrian Peterson is back to his old ways hoisting the redkins to a 128 rushing yards per game which is top 8.   Want to talk about defense?   Washington is TOP 5 while the Falcons rank bottom 3 in the league.   2 ends of the spectrum here.  Matt Ryan is a great passing QB at home and averages 360 yards per game at home but the key here is that he only averages 268 yards per game on the road.   This game will only take a good game manager to win this one.   Pound the rock, let your defense do what it does best and take home the W.

Redskins -2

Sand Diego vs Seattle -1.5 O/U 48

So these teams have been playing pretty good on offense lately and this is the reason for the higher total but there is reason to be skeptical here.  The Chargers have played some very bad defenses in the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Bills and Chiefs which helped boster their numbers.   Seattle on the other hand has been very good on defense allowing a top 4 18 points per game and top 5 327 yards per game.   The Chargers defense isn’t too shabby either allowing 23 points per game and 362 yards.   Both of these teams have benefited greatly from the turnover margin.   Seattle is number 1 in the NFL at plus 1.3 TO per game and Seattle is top 7 TO per game at .7.   Both of these teams rank low in pace of play with the Chargers at number 30 in the league at 58 plays per game and Seattle number 25 at 61 plays per game.  My Algorithm has this game the Seahawks 24 and the Chargers 20.

Seattle -1.5 and Under 48

Tennessee vs Dallas – Premium Play

Teaser:   Seattle down to +4.5 with the Vikings down to +.5  – Lions traded their best WR Golden Tate.  What message does that send to the team?

We are about a month into the NHL season and things are rolling.  As I looked late last night an realized that last night would be a loss, I got to thinking about how I got away from posting the Units won/lost.  I will start that back up when I post the recaps.  I also got to thinking about the numbers I had posted and how they seemed off.  I want to be transparent as possible and wanted to get to the bottom of why the numbers were off.  I went back through tweets, posts, etc and found the issue.  From my post on 10/17 I took the number from that week and that week only (from the 8th on), omitting the plays from the 4th-7th. So this morning I went back through and checked every post, play, tweet, etc and here are the correct October Numbers:

56 – 35 – 1  .6154  +18.72 Units.

That is correct and more closely matches what my bankroll reflects.  That is right where we want to be and that includes several bad beats.  Bad beats are part of the game and they happen both ways.  But how often do teams give up a 3-4 goal lead?  Not often, but it’s happened 3 times or more.  Last night I had a personal play on Colorado.  They were up 4-1 and one point and I kinda stopped paying attention to it.  Well, Calgary rattled 5 straight goals in the 3 to win… another bad beat, though, only a personal play.  Just an example of this crazy investing/betting world.  We will look to improve on the +18.72 Units in November and beyond.  Thanks for reading the articles and playing along.  GL2ALL.

Last night (11/1/18): 4 – 5  for -.60 U

Season to Date: 60 – 40 – 1  .6000  +18.12 Units

11/2/20148

Florida Panthers @ Winnipeg Jets – 2 PM EST

These two teams just played each other yesterday in Florida, with the Jets coming through 4-2.  They are back at it this afternoon in an early game of 2PM EST.  We cashed on the Jets yesterday and I am looking to do so again today.  I am taking the Jets -140.  The Jets are playing well, especially at home, where they are 5-1-1.  They know that they can beat this Florida team, doing so yesterday afternoon.  Florida has not fared well in Winnipeg.  The Jets are 23-7 all time against Florida and 8-1 in Winnipeg.  I look for more of that to continue.  I also like the Over 5.5 goals.

Colorado Avalanche @ Vancouver Canucks – 10PM ET

Colorado was in action last night, I was on them on a personal play and they blew a 4-1 lead.  Vancouver has been off a day after cashing a ticket for us on the 31st.  As has been mentioned, Vancouver has been a dog in EVERY game this season.  That trend continues tonight, as they are about +125.  Normally I would take Vancouver in this spot.  They are a very active dog and they may very well win this one outright. However, with Colorado dropping a 4-1 lead last night, I look for them to come out ticked off and ready to play.  In the words of Mike Brenner, this is a “Somebody’s gunna pay for that sh*t” game.  I look for Colorado to roll.  The numbers all point to that and you add in that they are off a blown game where they gave up 5 goals in the 3 period, somebody is indeed going to pay for that sh*t and it will be the Canucks tonight.  Colorado ML.  I also have the Over 5.5 Goals.

Carolina Hurricanes @ Arizona Coyotes

Not much of a write-up here.  I am on Carolina and heavy on the Under 6 goals. Arizona has been playing better as of late after starting the season slowly.  Carolina, on the other hand, started hot and then lost 5 of their last 7 games.  They are looking to bounce back, after dropping their last two.  Arizona has won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6. Arizona is hot and may very well win this game. But I look for Carolina to come in and get a low scoring win, like a 2-1, or 3-2 game. Carolina is 3-1 in the last 4 trips to Arizona and the O/U is 1-3. Take Carolina and the Under.

GL2ALL.

Let down spots:

Georgia at Kentucky

Washington State hosting Cal for both teams really

Notre Dame could be a little flat vs Northwestern….

ASU hosting Utah but both teams really need this game

Oklahoma state at Baylor

Get up spots:

Florida hosting Missouri

Stanford at Washington for both teams

Texas vs West Virginia

NC State vs Florida State

Texas A&M at Auburn

Purdue vs Iowa for both teams really

South Florida at Cincinnati

Look ahead spots:

Wisconsin could be looking past Rutgers ahead to Penn State

Ohio State looking past Nebraska to Michigan State but maybe not due to their loss to Purdue

Georgia looking past Kentucky to Auburn

Oklahoma State looking past Baylor to Oklahoma

Michigan state looking past Maryland to Ohio State

Mississippi State looking past LA Tech to Alabama

Happy Halloween!!!

This season is flying by and we are just about a month in.  Here are the YTD recap and recent numbers.  The last post was on the 24th and I sent out some picks on Twitter as well.  As the season settles in and we get more data I am getting more and more comfortable playing up to -200 is some spots, though usually I just adjust the PL to -1 and take less juice.  24th – 5-2, great night.  25th 3-2 Good night.  26th 2-2, ok night but at least we were at .500.  27th 2-1, good night. 28th – None. 29th, 1-2, bad night and 30th 2-4, terrible night. For the season it is 36-30-2  .5454.  We are above .500, and have a way to go, but I like where we are.

Chicago Blackhawks @ Vancouver Canucks

The only game on the slate tonight is Chicago at Vancouver.  There are reasons to take either team here, and you couldn’t be faulted wither way.  Chicago, who is beginning a 3 game Canada road trip, is coming off of two losses in and row, and they definitely want to get things right and not drop a third.  Vancouver is coming off an upset win against Minnesota.  Chicago hasn’t lost three in a row all season, and there are reasons to believe that they won’t start now.  Vancouver has been an underdog all season long… literally.  In their 13 games they have not been favored once. They are use to this, they are use to being overlooked and undervalued, so I don’t see a drop off or let down coming off of their win against Minnesota. I am on a bit of an island tonight because as of this writing, 62% of the tickets and 67% of the cash are on Chicago.  But the numbers point to the Canucks. Don’t let the dog scare you on this Halloween night. I am taking the Canucks on the money line to get it done tonight. If you were to blindly play on the Canucks all season, you would be +6.65 Units. And as long as I am making money on Vancouver, I will continue to take them. I also took the Over 5.5. GL2ALL and have a safe and Happy Halloween!!!

Follow me on Twitter for more picks @U2remdm.

Tulane PK

Tulane and Tulsa are two teams struggling to climb out of the basement of the the AAC. Tulsa isn’t effective holding onto the ball with a -6  turnover rating. Tulane does one thing decent and it is playing the run which is the only thing Tulsa can sometimes figure out how to do. Give me Tulane in a close one.

Texas -3

I know Tom Herman is bad as a favorite lifetime but I dont see alot of value in Oklahoma State. They have struggled mightily this season. Also, Sam Ehlinger upgraded to probable who has been fantastic making good decisions with the ball in his hand.Tom Herman will do a good on keeping the ball away Ok State and I see them winning by a touchdown

Iowa +5 / Under 51

Penn State isn’t good at protecting Trace Mcsorley and that is one thing that Iowa does well is get after the quarterback. Trace when he has pressured hasn’t made the best passes and it shows this season with his completion percentage being  down almost 10 Penn State has looked flat since they lost to Ohio State dropping a game against Michigan St and Indiana pretty much shooting themselves in the foot to blow a win last week. Give me Iowa and the points even if Penn State wins it will be by a field goal.

NC State-2

Plain and Simple they are the better team and will get up for this game after a tough loss to Clemson. The Power Ratings I have this being a 6 point game. Give me NC State who is the better defensive team. I think they make one more stop than the Orange and that will be the difference. Eric Dungey has been getting hit all season his health is questionable. I look for Ryan Finely NFL hopeful to bounce back well in this game.

Wisconsin -3.5

I actually like Wisconsin more that Hornibrook is out of this game. Coming into start will be sophmore Jack Coan who is a former 4 star recruit. I do think he may be a better passer than Hornibrook but not given a shot since Alex is a proven leader with a winning track record. Paul Chryst this could be the upgrade your team needs. I think Jack could surprise some people. I have this game almost power rated at 10 huge value on the Badgers. I think this line could drop to -3.

College Football Week 9

Purdue vs Michigan State -2

Well since Purdue beat Ohio State and Michigan