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Podcast 54-18 College Football Week 11 – NFL Week 10 Picks – Sports Betting

Sports Betting
Sports Betting and Wagering

Today we cover a little big about the best ATS teams as well as the Alabama look ahead lines!   Michigan Wolverine fans now have another favorite team to cheer for!   Then we get into our college football week 11 free picks, sharp movements and NFL week 10.

College:  Mississippi State vs Alabama – Maryland vs Indiana – Kansas vs Kansas State – Washington State vs Colorado and more!

NFL: Detroit vs Chicago – Jacksonville vs Indianapolis – Dallas vs Philadelphia and more!

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Sports Betting & Wagering

College Football Week 11 & NFL Week 10 Picks

College Football Week 11:

Washington State vs Colorado +4.5

Well we all knew that Colorado was fake news right?   We saw them lose 4 games in a row and now have to face the best team in the Pac 12.  Mike Leach’s Cougars are having special year and their Quarterback Gardner Minshew has over a 70% completion rate with a 27-7 TD to Interception ratio.   After what Wasu has done you might think this is a let down spot right?   It’s not.   Their let down spot was last week hosting Cal and they barely got through it.   Now they are going in to face a decimated Colorado team that has 3 Wrs and 2 place kickers on the injury report.   This will definitely hurt Steven Montez’s passing game where he has a 67% completion percentage and 17-5 TD to Interception ratio.   The Cougers on the other hand are injury free and rank top 20 in yards per play at 6.4 while only giving up 5 on defense.   Colorado is at 5.8 yards per play but gives up 5.4 on defense.   1/2 yard per play net difference.  Washington state ranks first at 8-1 ATS while Colorado ranks 5-4 and has yet to be a home underdog.   This one is pretty easy for me.

WASU -4.5 to -7

Kansas vs Kansas St -12

What kind of business does Kansas State this year have laying -12 to anybody?   On paper both of these teams are pretty equal only producing 5 yards per play while giving up 6.  The JHawks have the slight edge in points per game and Wildcats have the edge in strength of schedule.   Neither of these teams will make a bowl but they will be playing this game for pride.   This game may be a little windy and you can see this by the total of only 45 points.   Both teams will run the ball here and Kansas actually has the edge here allowing only 4.2 yards per run while Kansas State allows a large 5.35.   Lastly KState Quarterback Skyler Thompson left last weeks game in the first quarter and is highly questionable for this game.    Even tho both teams have 3 wins it looked at as a much better season for Jhawks then the Wildcats.   This is also a revenge spot for Kansas and I think they get it done here and possibly win the game.

Kansas +12 and ML Sprinkle

Mississippi State vs Alabama -26

I know, I know.   What the hell are you doing Kiev?    Why fade Bama when they are 6-3 ATS.   Well its pretty much because I have too this week.   I mean we see Bama’s offense this year looking as good or better than Oklahoma ranking just second behind them in yards per play.   Bama is number 1 in points per game just over Utah State at 52 points.   Shockingly Alabama ranks only 5th in points allowed and 10th in yards per play but that is probably because of garbage time.    Ok.  Here is the handicap.   Last year Mississippi state should have beaten Bama and blew it at the end.  It was a Jalen Hurts led team but still many of the same players this year.    The Bulldogs on the other hand return even MORE players from last year than Alabama and these kids remember how to play this team.   Huge revenge spot and this game has been circled.   Mississippi state is built to put up a fight against Bama with their RPO game and it works against good teams.   Also interesting Mississippi state’s defense  ranks 5th in yards per play and 3rd in points allowed at 12.  Ahead of Bama in these categories.   They also are top 22 in yards per play at 6.5 even after those terrible losses to Kentucky and Florida.   This is also a let down spot for Bama after beating their Rival LSU.   I am forgoing the first half bet with Bama and Taking the 26 points.  I like it down to 23.

Mississippi State +26 and ML sprinkle at +2000

Maryland vs Indiana -3 and O/U 55

Here are 2 teams that have been bad lately but who can blame them.   Look who both teams played the last 4 weeks or so.   Literally the best of the big 10.  What I like here is that both of these teams can make a bowl game if they just win 1 or 2 more games.   1 for Maryland and 2 for Indiana.   This should motivate these teams to play well and in turn score some points.   What I like about this game is that both teams score about 27 and 28 points per game even factoring in those hard defenses that they played.   Maryland plays slow at 60 plays per game but if you look deeper into it the reason is that they haven’t had a close game since week 1 vs Texas.   Either Maryland or their opponent was running the clock in the 4th quarter every game.   On the other hand Indiana plays super fast ranking 12th at 79 plays per game and the fact that they are at home, they may control some of that pace.   Indiana gives up some points too at 30 per game and 5.8 yards per play.   I love the over here at 55 and I have this as a pick-em so lean is to Maryland.

Maryland Over 55 

Premium Plays:

Michigan vs Rutgers

Baylor vs Iowa State

FIU vs UTSA

Akron vs Buffalo

South Carolina vs Florida

Mississippi vs Texas a&m

Ohio State vs Michigan State

Quick hitters:

Taking Fresno vs Boise State over 54  – Both teams are much better in offense than they were last year.   The Broncos average 38 points per game and 6.3 yards per play and Fresno State averages 40 points per game at 6.3 yards per play.  Shootout Central

Utah State – 31 Hosting San Jose State – Utah State scoring 50 per game and allowing 22 per game now plays one of the worst teams in the country.  Utah State is 8-1 ATS and 5-0 at home.   The Aggie’s play fast and will score fast against the Spartans here.   Power ratings has this a 37 point difference.  Since San Jose State beat UNLV 2 weeks ago they are not dying for a W.   This team is done for the season.

Mississippi vs Texas A&M over 66 – Ole Miss is 6-3 in totals bets and I do not see any change here.   The last 3 games they averaged 89 plays per game and know how to score through the air.   Jordan Ta’amu has a 65% completion percentage and 3000 passing yards.   He also can run the ball very well.   The Rebels have the 5th worst defense in college football allowing 7.5 yards per play and 39 points per game.   Texas A&M’s only weakness is against the pass as you saw last week vs Auburn.   They also play pretty fast on offense at 77 plays per game and should be  able to lay 50 on this team.   

Boston College +20 vs Clemson – Boston college was built to beat this team.  Their defense really isn’t that bad ranking 14th in yards per play at 4.7.  Obviously we know what Clemson is but can Freshman Trevor Lawrence handle the pressure of playing a night game at Alumni Stadium.   Much of this BC team has returned from last year and this is another revenge spot.   I just predict a hickup for c+Clemson here and AJ Dillon might find running room with their fast paced offense.   

Cincinnati -14 vs USF – USF is over rated and we knew it all year Now they finally play a great defense that can also Score.

The Sharp Side of the Force:

Ohio at Miami Ohio shot up from -3 to -5.5 and now I see some buyback

NC State from -15 to -17 hosting Wake Forest

Kansas at K State from +12 to +10.5

UNC at Duke from +10.5 to +10 Rivalry and I can see that too

Charlotte at Marshall +14.5

UTEP hosting Middle Tennessee State +15 to +13.5 its a let down spot for UTEP

Liberty +23.5 at Virginia

East Carolina at Tulane +15.5 to +14

FAU hosting Western Kentucky -17 to -20

Coastal Carolina +6.5 hosting Arkansas State

Cincinnati hosting USF -12 to -14

Arkansas hosting LSU +14 to +13.5 this is a players fade on LSU after Bama

Stanford -23.5 hosting Oregon State

Sharp Totals:

Dual action on Florida vs South Carolina under 54

Dual action on Wisconsin vs Penn State over from 51 to 55.5 – I can’t trust the QBs here

Washington state vs Colorado under 60.5 a 49% difference

Ole Miss vs Alabama over 51.5 to 53

Baylor vs Iowa State under 51 will be cold

Dual Action on App State vs Tex State under 48

Rice vs Louisiana Tech under 52 a 66% difference is pretty huge

Dual Action Temple at Houston over 69

FSU vs Notre Dame under 54.5 a 57% difference

NFL Week 10:

Detroit vs Chicago -6.5

Comon!   Did you think we were not going to go back to the well on this one?   The Bears rank 4th in overall efficiency according to football outsiders and the Lions rank 29th!   The Bears pass rush has been great lately and that is without Kalil Mack who may be back this week.   The Lions gave up 10 sacks last week against the Vikings and now are facing one of the best defenses in the League.   On the other side of the ball, the Bears offense is starting to Gel, they are not turning the ball over like in the past and they remain pretty healthy.    The offensive production is actually pretty similar with a slight edge to the bears in yards per game 359-353 for Detroit but Defensively the Bears have the edge by 35 yards per game.   The Bears are top 3 in scoring defense allowing 19 points per game.   Most power ratings have the bears by 7.5 points here.   Oh and did I mention that Kalil Mack is back!?

Chicago -6.5

Jacksonville vs Indianapolis -3

So if you run the numbers here these teams are pretty similar from a net yards perspective with only a difference of 14 yards.  Jags have the defensive advantage and the Colts have the offensive advantage.    One difference in these stats is that the Colts have been a very injured team on defense and finally have some players back.      Since the Jags have lost offensive tackles Will Richardson and Josh Wells, you have not seen the last years Jags team.   Since then they lost to the Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Texans and the Eagles and none of those games were even that close.   The biggest thing that sticks out to me here is the yards per point.   It takes only 13 yards for the colts to score a point and it takes 21 for the Jaguars.   Much of this is due to poor QB play from Blake Bortles.   Luck is a top 15 QB this year and is now getting back Jack Doyal.   Blake Bortles is a top 30 QB.   To add to it the Jags have 3 cornerbacks Questionable for this game.   The Quarterback play isn’t even close here and If I am going to look at these teams and the line tells me that this would be a Pick-em on a Neutral Field, I am siding the the QB.

Colts -3

Quick Hitter:

Dallas vs Philadelphia -6.5 I love betting on teams after a bye and fading teams on short weeks.   In this situation you have BOTH and you also have a very good coach facing a very bad coach.   My numbers have this at about -6.5 as it is but it doesn’t factor in the time that Philly had without Carson Wentz and Alshawn Jeffery.   You have to upgrade this and I believe that Philli is on a mission here to take back control of this division.   Dallas also lost Guard Connor Willams and LB Sean Lee so this is an easy play for me

Dallas -6.5

Teaser

Miami to +15.5 with the Eagles under to 49.

Premium plays

Washington vs Tampa Bay

Seattle vs LA Rams

College Hoops Tip off Free Play

Today has been circled on a lot of people’s calendars, ESPN being one of them and for good reason. We’ll get to experience a Heavyweight doubleheader on Opening night. #1 Kansas vs #10 Michigan State, & #2 Kentucky vs #4 Duke. I’d like to focus on the Wildcats and Blue Devils, these two teams square off in Indianapolis and could meet again in Minneapolis this years host of the Final Four. I don’t think weve ever had a better opening night matchup since the one and done era started in College Hoops. Duke comes in the favorite to take the championship with UK following close behind. We can literally go down the lineup and its a great matchup at literally every position. At Point Guard we’ll see freshmen Tre Jones and Aston Hagens, we know Jones’ brother Tyus real well but we havent seen much of Tre this preseason due to injury. Hagens on the other hand hasn’t shown any weakness other than his outside shot and has amazing game as well as a 2 inch advantage on Jones. Duke has a steller Freshman at the 2 and Kentucky will rely on the sophomore Green to neutralize Barrett’s athleticism with experience. Both teams have Freshman at the small forward with no visible advantage. I believe P.J. Washington might be the only player in College Basketball able to matchup with Zion Williamson, not only in size but I think hes a bit more refined every where else, other than dunking of course. At Center we’ve got a reclassed Senior Reid Travis and junior Delaurier. This will be Delaurier’s first year starting in Durham and has been a solid bench player the last two years. Travis 19 and 8 at Stanford and is looking to boost his draft stock by playing around next years top lottery picks, tonight would be a great opportunity to show his abilities. I think tonight Kentucky is the better team with a better bench on a neutral site. Give the Duke Freshmen some time to develop chemistry and get use to College Hoops, tonight the Wildcats and the moment will be too much for the Blue Devils.

Free play of the day: UK -2 

Twitter: @BobbyBetsATS

Fantasy Football Week 10

Bye weeks

Broncos, Ravens, Texans, Vikings

Key Injuries:

AJ Green WR -toe problem – week to week

Chris Carson RB – Hip

Chris Ivory RB – Shoulder

Jeronimo Allison – WR Packers

Raheem Mostart – Broke Forearm out for season

Leonard Founette may be back!

Waiver Wire:

John Ross WR Bengals

Alex Erickson WR Bengals

Cordarrelle Patterson – Playing RB as a WR for New England!!!

Marcus Murphy – RB Buffalo

Alfred Morris – RB San Francisco

Mike Davis RB – Seattle

Curtis Samual WR – Carolina

Nick Mullins QB – San Francisco

Duke Johnson RB – Cleveland 48% owned

Nick Vannett TE – Seattle

Marquez Valding Scantling

Maurice Harris WR – 12 targets 10 receptions

Jeff Heuerman – 11 Targets and a TD

Break Out Players:

Jordan Howard vs Lions run D

Maurice Harris WR vs Tampa Bay

Josh Doctson vs Tampa Bay

Ito Smith vs Cleveland’s run D

Ben Watson TE vs Cincinnati who is third worst vs Tight Ends

Sammy Watkins vs Arizona cause I think Patrick Peterson is on Tyreke Hill

Greg Olsen vs Pittsburgh They are second worst against tight ends

Vance McDonald vs Carolina who is worst vs Tight Ends in fantasy

Nasty Sleeper is Maurice Harris vs Tampa Bay

Podcast 53-18 – College football Week 10 Recap – Betting Spots – Fantasy Football Week 10

Sports Betting
Sports Betting and Wagering

Today we recap a kinda slow but still great week of college football!   We break down last weeks games as well as some great betting spots for week 10!  D-Nasty then comes in to break down Fantasy Football week 9.   Bye weeks, injuries, waivers and break out players.

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Sports Betting & Wagering

NBA Free play of the day

NBA free pick is back. Now that we’ve gathered some data, I feel more confident with making a play or two. Tonight let’s focus on the Pelicans/Thunder matchup. Anthony Davis is trying to get the Pelicans back on track after a 4-0 start to the season. The Thunder have won 4 in a row and want to continue their winning ways. I envision a shoot out tonight in OKC, with two of the faster paced teams going at it. After losing 5 in a row Anthony Davis is going to be at his best knowing Russell Westbrook is on the other side. New Orleans has scored the 3rd most points but have also allowed the 2nd most points. OKC has no problem scoring averaging 110 points a game offensively. The best best for tonight is Over 235 in this ball game I see a 130-125 type of game

NBA free play: Pelicans/Thunder over 235

 

 

Survivor Pool Week 9 Tito’s Take

I am happy to say we got the win but things will tougher down the stretch since we have used some top quality teams including the Patriots, Vikings, Rams, and Steelers. However there is still tons of the value if we dig deep enough. Remember no point of saving a good team its all about win and move on and figure the rest out later.

 

Top options

Chicago Bears on the road against the Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs on the road vs Browns

Carolina Panthers at home vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 

The Bears

 

Da Bears are in a good spot to pick up a much need win in the NFC North. They currently sit atop the division which is heading into week 9 is huge. One thing that scares me about this huge spread is the fact that this should be a low scoring game. The Bills have an above average defense that will keep this game from getting out of hand. However, the Bills offense is not good enough to do damage to the very impressive Bears defense. The Bears should get it done here.

 

Chiefs

Honestly, this game is a no-brainer. The Browns are in turmoil firing Hue Jackson and Todd Haley this week. Greg Williams takes over as the intern head coach for the Browns and honestly he is worse than the two coaches who already got fired. His claim to fame is being the ringleader of the bounty hunter defense. The Chiefs offense will continue to roll this week and I can see them blowing out this team that is currently in shambles. Expect a Big day out of Kareem Hunt.

 

Panthers

The Panthers have been playing excellent as of late. They have won 4 out of their last 5 with wins over serious playoff contenders the Baltimore Ravens and the defending Super Bowl Champion Eagles. However the Bucs are handing the offense over to Fitzpatrick who plays well in the backup quarterback role since there are not a lot of expectations.

 

Top Choice: Kansas City Chiefs.

Runner Up: The Bears

College Week 10 & NFL Week 9

College Football Week 10

Texas A&M vs Auburn -6 O/U 49

Well I am going to go back to the well on this one.   I can’t really prepare numbers on this one because as you know the Aggies have played Alabama and Clemson while the Tigers toughest game was home vs LSU.   Their Washington win isn’t looking too good anymore either.  Auburn has a problem this year and that is their offensive line.   Their terrible line is the reason that they lost to Tennessee and if they can’t get Stidham going then they can’t win.  Texas A&M ranks 21st in the country in sacks per game.   I think this will make it a long day for Auburn.   I have this game  Auburn -1 in the Power Ratings.   I also kinda like the under here at 49 because both teams average less than 24 points vs conference opponents and have good defenses.

Texas A&M +6  ML sprinkle and under 49

FAU vs FIU -3.5

So I was high on Florida Atlantic coming in but I think I may have jumped the gun a bit thinking their defense was going to get much better and I also thought that Chris Robinson can replace Jason Driskel.    Since last year the Owls have dropped 1 yard per play from 6.8 to 5.8 on offense and also lost .8 yards per play on defense now giving up 6 per play.   They lost too much offensive production and it shows.   The Golden Panthers on the other hand are the Florida Atlantic of last year.   They are 6-1 ATS this year and continue to be underrated.   They are averaging 6.4 yards per play and and giving up 5.4 of defense.   Their QB James Morgan has a 166 passer rating at 65% this year.   Chris Robinson of Florida Atlantic is only at 120.   I think this spread is a little light and it is only because what people remember that FAU did last year.    The owls are last at 1-7 ATS.

FIU -3.5 

Stanford vs Washington -9.5

What the hell happened to this Top 10 Preseason ranked teams?   No clue but one thing that I do know is that Jake Browning is kinda in the hot seat.  KJ Costello on the other hand when allowed to throw the ball has completed 67% of his passes for a 156 rating.   Browning is 12-8 TD to interception ratio and Costello is 17-6.   Both teams are around 6 yards per play on offense and now  I know that Washington shows a better defense than Stanford but look who they have played?   An offensively challenged Auburn, A Utah team early in the year, Oregon and no other ranked teams.  Stanford just went through a gauntlet of tough teams and came out ok.   Stanford is a marginal 4-4 ATS but Washington is 2-7.   Lastly it looks like Myles Gaskin of the Huskies may miss this game and so will a stud O lineman in Trey Adams.  Stanford has beaten Washington 2 of the last 3 years.  This game should be closer than 9.5 points

Stanford +9.5

Syracuse vs Wake Forest +5 O/U 75

Well this looks like a huge over under right.   Well it should be because both of these teams are top 6 in plays per game and both play extremely fast.   The truth is though that this number is still too low and I will explain why.    When 2 fast teams play against each other it is more of a multiplication affect on the pace rather than an average.   For example, if both of these teams play at 120% the speed of the average team the game does not end at 120% more plays.   It ends at 144% which means that the speed of these teams will feed off of each other making 20% more plays per game.   Both teams score a lot of points with Syracuse at 44 and Wake at 34.   Both these teams have defensive ranking in the 100s.  I have this game Syracuse winning 44-35.

Over 75

Quick Hitters

Navy vs Cinci under 50.   The Bearcats are amazing against the run allowing 3.4 yards per play.  This should be enough to stop the triple option and shut Navy down.   I see a lot of running this game because we know Navy can’t pass and Cinci runs the ball 62% of the time.   

Alabama first have cover:   Should be around 7.5.  They are now 8-0 so its an auto bet.   

Utah vs ASU Under 56 – This is a huge game for Utah to take full control of the Pac 12 south.   ASU in a let down spot.  Both teams are running teams with very good defenses against the run.   

Big Games

Alabama vs LSU +14.5 O/U 54.   Can LSU live up to the Hype?  Will this be the first time we see Tungaviola in the 4th Quarter?   The defensive numbers say under but the offensive numbers say over.   Maybe its best to take a first half under and a second half over?

West Virginia vs Texas -2 – Texas is now out of the playoffs and should be flat this week but its hard to bet against Tom Herman at home.   Lean is West Virginia here.  They are the closest team to Oklahoma in the Big 12

Notre Dame vs Northwestern +9.5 – Notre Dame could be kinda flat and happy here.   They may underestimate the Northwestern gritty team.   The number is about right but which Northwestern team shows up here?  The one that lost to Akron and almost to Rutgers or the one that beat Purdue, Wisconsin and almost Michigan?

Georgia vs Kentucky +9.5 – You can make an argument both ways here.   If Georgia scores first bet them live, if Kentucky scores first bet them.

Premium Plays

Penn State vs Michigan

Miami Ohio vs Buffalo

Minnesota vs Illinois

Syracuse vs Wake Forest

The Sharp side of the force!   Sharp money is on:

Arizona hosting Colorado -3

Baylor +7.5 vs Oklahoma State

Iowa State -14.5 at Kansas

Airforce +7 at Army

Nebraska +21.5 to +17.5 at Ohio State

Ole Miss +1 vs South Carolina – I don’t understand that one as much

Texas State +7 to +5.5 at Georgia State

Minnesota -9.5 at Illinois

Kansas State +8 at TCU

Tulane from +8 to +7 at South Florida – Scary one

Boston College from -1 to -2 at Va Tech

San Diego State -10.5 at New Mexico – we saw what Fresno State did to New Mexico

Dual Action on Ohio at Western Michigan from PK to -3

Dual Action on Utah State vs Hawaii 97% of money on Utah State

Sharp Totals

Ohio vs Western Michigan under 64.5 a 72% difference

Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee State under 53 a 58% difference

Texas San Antonio vs Arkansas State under 63.5

Georgia vs Kentucky under 44 – That says something about the spread

UTEP vs Rice over 45.5

Dual Action on the Navy vs Cincinnati under 50

Iowa vs Purdue over 51.5

Boston College vs Virginia Tech over 57.5

Charlotte vs Tennessee under from 50 to 45.5 big move but no value

Utah vs ASU under 56 a 78% difference

Houston vs SMU under 71 a 51% difference but I don’t like it

UCLA vs Oregon over 55.5 to 58.5

Stanford vs Washington under 46.5

Cal vs Washington State under from 55 to 50

Utah State vs Hawaii under 70.5

NFL Week 9

Tampa Bay vs Carolina -6.5

Ok, lets try this fade Fitzmagic thing again.   I know we got jobbed on this vs the Eagles, but I can’t trust him as a starter on the road.   If you look at the numbers it may even favor Tampa bay a bit but I think it is because Fitzpatrick was so great the first few games.   Carolina has improved their pass rush to 3 sacks per game the last 3 games.   The Panthers also have a top 10 defense in points allowed at 21 while Tampa is worst in the league at 33.   Now you look at the injury report and Tampa may have lost their corner back MJ Stewart and with Hargreaves and Conte out their backfield is very depleted.   Vita Vea is also banged up as well.    I like how Carolina’s offense has improved the last few games with Greg Olson back and I also like how DJ Moore is progressing.   The key here that I like to look at is yards per point.   Tampa bay needs 16.3 yards to score a point while Carolina only needs 14.1.  On defense Tampa gives up a league worst 12.1 yards per point while Carolina is top 10 at 16.2.   This is the main reason why Carolina ranks 4th in overall efficiency and Tampa ranks 29th.

Carolina -6.5

Atlanta vs Washington -2

Here is another story of a banged up shitty road team.  Atlanta is 0-2 ATS as a road team while Washington is 3-1 at home.   Atlanta lost Devonte Freeman this year and hasn’t been able to have that great run game that made them so good in the past.   They are 3rd worst in the league at 83 yards per game while Adrian Peterson is back to his old ways hoisting the redkins to a 128 rushing yards per game which is top 8.   Want to talk about defense?   Washington is TOP 5 while the Falcons rank bottom 3 in the league.   2 ends of the spectrum here.  Matt Ryan is a great passing QB at home and averages 360 yards per game at home but the key here is that he only averages 268 yards per game on the road.   This game will only take a good game manager to win this one.   Pound the rock, let your defense do what it does best and take home the W.

Redskins -2

Sand Diego vs Seattle -1.5 O/U 48

So these teams have been playing pretty good on offense lately and this is the reason for the higher total but there is reason to be skeptical here.  The Chargers have played some very bad defenses in the Browns, Raiders, 49ers, Bills and Chiefs which helped boster their numbers.   Seattle on the other hand has been very good on defense allowing a top 4 18 points per game and top 5 327 yards per game.   The Chargers defense isn’t too shabby either allowing 23 points per game and 362 yards.   Both of these teams have benefited greatly from the turnover margin.   Seattle is number 1 in the NFL at plus 1.3 TO per game and Seattle is top 7 TO per game at .7.   Both of these teams rank low in pace of play with the Chargers at number 30 in the league at 58 plays per game and Seattle number 25 at 61 plays per game.  My Algorithm has this game the Seahawks 24 and the Chargers 20.

Seattle -1.5 and Under 48

Tennessee vs Dallas – Premium Play

Teaser:   Seattle down to +4.5 with the Vikings down to +.5  – Lions traded their best WR Golden Tate.  What message does that send to the team?

 

 

 

NHL October Recap & Small 11/2/18 Slate

We are about a month into the NHL season and things are rolling.  As I looked late last night an realized that last night would be a loss, I got to thinking about how I got away from posting the Units won/lost.  I will start that back up when I post the recaps.  I also got to thinking about the numbers I had posted and how they seemed off.  I want to be transparent as possible and wanted to get to the bottom of why the numbers were off.  I went back through tweets, posts, etc and found the issue.  From my post on 10/17 I took the number from that week and that week only (from the 8th on), omitting the plays from the 4th-7th. So this morning I went back through and checked every post, play, tweet, etc and here are the correct October Numbers:

56 – 35 – 1  .6154  +18.72 Units.

That is correct and more closely matches what my bankroll reflects.  That is right where we want to be and that includes several bad beats.  Bad beats are part of the game and they happen both ways.  But how often do teams give up a 3-4 goal lead?  Not often, but it’s happened 3 times or more.  Last night I had a personal play on Colorado.  They were up 4-1 and one point and I kinda stopped paying attention to it.  Well, Calgary rattled 5 straight goals in the 3 to win… another bad beat, though, only a personal play.  Just an example of this crazy investing/betting world.  We will look to improve on the +18.72 Units in November and beyond.  Thanks for reading the articles and playing along.  GL2ALL.

Last night (11/1/18): 4 – 5  for -.60 U

Season to Date: 60 – 40 – 1  .6000  +18.12 Units

11/2/20148

Florida Panthers @ Winnipeg Jets – 2 PM EST

These two teams just played each other yesterday in Florida, with the Jets coming through 4-2.  They are back at it this afternoon in an early game of 2PM EST.  We cashed on the Jets yesterday and I am looking to do so again today.  I am taking the Jets -140.  The Jets are playing well, especially at home, where they are 5-1-1.  They know that they can beat this Florida team, doing so yesterday afternoon.  Florida has not fared well in Winnipeg.  The Jets are 23-7 all time against Florida and 8-1 in Winnipeg.  I look for more of that to continue.  I also like the Over 5.5 goals.

Colorado Avalanche @ Vancouver Canucks – 10PM ET

Colorado was in action last night, I was on them on a personal play and they blew a 4-1 lead.  Vancouver has been off a day after cashing a ticket for us on the 31st.  As has been mentioned, Vancouver has been a dog in EVERY game this season.  That trend continues tonight, as they are about +125.  Normally I would take Vancouver in this spot.  They are a very active dog and they may very well win this one outright. However, with Colorado dropping a 4-1 lead last night, I look for them to come out ticked off and ready to play.  In the words of Mike Brenner, this is a “Somebody’s gunna pay for that sh*t” game.  I look for Colorado to roll.  The numbers all point to that and you add in that they are off a blown game where they gave up 5 goals in the 3 period, somebody is indeed going to pay for that sh*t and it will be the Canucks tonight.  Colorado ML.  I also have the Over 5.5 Goals.

Carolina Hurricanes @ Arizona Coyotes

Not much of a write-up here.  I am on Carolina and heavy on the Under 6 goals. Arizona has been playing better as of late after starting the season slowly.  Carolina, on the other hand, started hot and then lost 5 of their last 7 games.  They are looking to bounce back, after dropping their last two.  Arizona has won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6. Arizona is hot and may very well win this game. But I look for Carolina to come in and get a low scoring win, like a 2-1, or 3-2 game. Carolina is 3-1 in the last 4 trips to Arizona and the O/U is 1-3. Take Carolina and the Under.

GL2ALL.

 

 

 

 

 

College Football Week 10 Betting Spots

Sports Betting Wagering Sharp information
Sports Betting

Let down spots:

Georgia at Kentucky

Washington State hosting Cal for both teams really

Notre Dame could be a little flat vs Northwestern….

ASU hosting Utah but both teams really need this game

Oklahoma state at Baylor

Get up spots:

Florida hosting Missouri

Stanford at Washington for both teams

Texas vs West Virginia

NC State vs Florida State

Texas A&M at Auburn

Purdue vs Iowa for both teams really

South Florida at Cincinnati

Look ahead spots:

Wisconsin could be looking past Rutgers ahead to Penn State

Ohio State looking past Nebraska to Michigan State but maybe not due to their loss to Purdue

Georgia looking past Kentucky to Auburn

Oklahoma State looking past Baylor to Oklahoma

Michigan state looking past Maryland to Ohio State

Mississippi State looking past LA Tech to Alabama