Congratulations if you made it this far in your NFL survivor/suicide pool. Week 1 and 2 were easy for most, however, Week 3 threw a wrench in the plans for everyone with the Vikings. As the 17 point favorites falling to Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots falling to the Lions, the Giants upsetting the Texans and the Jaguars falling to the Lions. Since we can’t track Weeks 1-4 for pick purposes, we will assume all teams are made available and break down some of the best options to look at. We will give an official pick and a team that is favorited that we should avoid. I have a stance in survivor pools. I don’t save a team for a better matchup. My goal is simple move on a cash prizes.
The Logical Choices
Panthers -7 vs. Giants
Patriots-10 vs. Colts
Saints -6.5 vs Redskins
Panthers
The Panthers should get it done here as the Giants have a lot of growing to do under new coach Pat Shurmur. The Panthers are coming off of a bye week which allows extra time for them to prepare and get healthy. The injury report for the Giants is a deep one littered with injuries compared to the Panthers who are pretty much just going to be missing Peppers and Olsen. Panthers are a safe choice in week 5. However, not my official choice.
Patriots
After losing two straight games TB12 came out firing on all cylinders this past weekend and beat down the Dolphins.Houston lost a demoralizing game to the Texans in which they fought back to force OT. They kick a FG to draw first blood then give up a FG,fail to score and give up a game winning FG on their home turf. Luck will be without his safety blanket T.Y Hilton. The x-factor to the Patriots offense is back in Edelman which allow better looks for Gronk, White, Hogan, Sony and Gordon.The Patriots get it done in a big way. Also Andrew Luck has never beaten the Patriots, a career 0-6.
Saints
I would recommend avoiding the Saints this week. Seems like a likely win as the Saints are -6.5 point favorites. The Redskins are weird team so far. They beat the Cardinals, laid an egg versus the Colts and then hammered Green Bay. The Redskins are off a bye as well and had plenty of time to get healthy and plan for this game. Strange things happen on Monday night and I’m not going to bet Alex Smith who is 90-63-1 as a starter
56-43-1 in college football and 13-15 in NFL! We have a SUPER SHOW FOR YOU TODAY! We of course cover our college week 6 free picks as well as sharp line movement! Then Brian Edwards @vegasbedwards of brianedwardssports.com and ESPN’s Golic and Wingo comes on to break down some more marquee matchups in college football as well a taste of UFC 229! The finish it off Cub Fan Danny @cubfandanny stops by to help break down his picks for the NFL week 5 and UFC 229!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 100% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
Thank you for all of you patreon subscribers / Oddsbreakers members for helping us out. Thank you listeners for being here as well because we wouldn’t be much without you. Going to have a members page for premium subscribers soon showing other handicappers free picks.
Question from Matt Holmes. Should you cover a large spread bet by laying -1200. No. I’d rather put more units on the spread if I feel good about it. What if your QB gets injured or if it starts rain storming and the match-up changes. What if your RB decides to fumble it a few times. Too much variance to lay that kind of juice in football. I would only lay higher juice if the spread is -3.5 and I want to bet the game you will lay about -170 but at the same time I haven’t cared enough to do that in a while because i have so many other options and can stay off the game.
MY TOP 10:
Ohio State – Played TCU and Penn State
Alabama – Played no ranked teams
Penn State – Played 1 ranked team
Georgia – Played no ranked teams
Oklahoma – Played no ranked teams
Notre Dame – Played 2 power ranked teams and now has a better QB
LSU – Played and beat 2 ranked teams
Clemson – Played no ranked teams and QB issues
Washington – Played 1 ranked team at their state
Auburn – Barley lost to LSU and should not have. Beat Washington
North Carolina vs Miami – Never bet against Miami at a night game. Wisconsin last year was the exception to that rule. The hype and turnover chain is too much. These kids in Miami are playing at 120%.
Memphis vs Tulane – Another rule. Never bet against a smaller conference home dog after they played a powerhouse like Ohio State. Ever hear the saying that when you play better competition it makes your that much better? Well it is true and we saw it this game. I am pissed at myself for not being on this.
Syracuse vs Clemson –
Man when Trevor Lawrence went out I thought Cuse had a shot to win this outright. Clemson’s 3rd string back up Chase Brice did a fantastic job to win this game in the 4th quarter. That 4th and 6 was huge. We will monitor Lawrence’s status going forward.
West Virginia vs Texas Tech – Same deal here. Alan Bowman was injured in the first half but backup Joe Duffey did a good job with 2 TDs until late in the game. Tech was coming back down by 7 and then a pick 6 by Duffy deep in the 4th quarter killed it.
K State vs Texas – This game was slow just like we thought. Texas looks pretty legit and I can’t wait till the Oklahoma game next week
Baylor vs Oklahoma – I kept thinking I was going to cover the 24 but Oklahoma kept scoring a billion touchdowns.
South Carolina vs Kentucky – Wow were many wrong on this game. I am so Glad I stayed off of it. Kentucky is legit this year for sure
Umass vs Ohio – Ohio came out flat this game and worked there way to a tie at half then won by 16. This was a bad handicap on my part but I’ll take it.
Michigan vs Northwestern – Almost an upset here but you can just tell when a talented team is down in the first half, it is better to bet on them the second half. We had North Western +14 here and when Michigan was down at the half we bought back Michigan -10 and had a 14 point middle… Always do this when the more talented team is down at half. ALWAYS
Va Tech vs Duke – This team came to play and this team came to win. They knew Duke was good and turned it way up! Game planned well for this team. Huge Props to Justin Fuente here.
Oregon vs Cal – Huge get up spot for Oregon and they got the job done. Cal had a bye week before this and let down many sharp players
Stanford vs Notre Dame – Well things really worked out well for the Irish when the switched to Ian Book at Quarterback. They pretty much dominated this game defensively especially and the game was over by the middle of the third quarter. Notre Dame is now a huge playoff contender with Va Tach and Syracuse as their toughest opponents left.
BYU vs Washington – Well this one I certainly got wrong and so did many others if you pay attention to sports betting media. BYU looked just like a below average team and nothing like the team that played Wisconsin so well. Washington is still in the Playoff Mix.
Ohio State vs Penn State – This game went very similair to last year. Penn State gets a lead in the 3rd and 4th quarter and blows it late against the best athletes in college football next to Bama. Ohio state should be on cruise control now because Michigan State isn’t that good and Michigan isn’t quite at that level either. We bet this one correctly to members tho giving the first half under and second half over.
Let down spots:
Ohio State hosting Indiana
Clemson at Wake Forest
Notre Dame at Va Tech
Florida State at Miami
Tulane at Cincinnati
Get up Spots:
Baylor hosting K State
Stanford hosting Utah
Cal at Arizona
Mississippi State hosting Auburn
Memphis Hosting Uconn
Florida Atlantic hosting Old Dominion
Syracuse at Pittsburgh
BYU hosting Utah State
Buffalo at Central Michigan
Michigan State hosting North Western is a revenge spot
Look Ahead Spots
Wisconsin looking past Nebraksa to at Michigan
Michigan looking past Maryland to Wisconsin
Michigan State looking past NU to Penn State – I will be on Penn state this game week 7
Missouri looking past at South Carolina to Bama
LSU looking past Florida to Georgia
Central Florida looking past SMU to at Memphis is possible
Washington looking past UCLA to at Oregon. Could be a flat spot
10-11 last week in College Football, 56-43-1 this season up 16.5 Units. NFL is 13-15 down 1.9 units. @thepublicdog recaps college football week 5. We then go into betting spots for week 6. @dnasty#1 Dnasty then comes in to break down fantasy football week 5! Key injuries, waiver wire, break out players and sleepers of the week!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.youwager.eu for a 100% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
Eagles vs. Titans.
Reports out of Nashville is it is flooded with Eagles fan and they getting rowdy. Even saw a post that 175 Eagles fan drank a plane out of liquor. In all seriousness, Jeffrey is expected to play and Ajayi will play. Carson Wentz looked better than expected last week completing 67% of his passes. The strength of the Titans this year is on the ground and that is where the Eagles defense is best this year on average only giving up 61 yards per game. Give me the Birds -3
Seahawks vs. Cardinals.
This is going to be a brutal game to watch as the Cardinals turn to Josh Rosen to see if he can spark life into this team. Arizona offensively has been horrible 32nd is passing yards and rushing. They only 190.3 yards per game total all season. Seattle defense of old isn’t the world beaters from before but still a good defense and should create pressure on Rosen. Russell Wilson is a good quarterback, he is fully aware this is a game they must win after starting 1-2.
Seahawks -3.5
Bengals Vs. Falcons
Strap in for this one as we are about to see some points. Looking at the injury report I feel like the entire secondary for both teams is on it. Without Joe Mixon, Andy Dalton is going to look to spread the ball around on offense to Green, Eifert, Boyd and Geo. On the flip side Matt Ryan just figured out what kind of a weapon Calvin Ridley can be for him as well. These teams rank 23rd and 24th in total defense and are playing indoors. Give me over 53.
Lions vs. Cowboys
Detroit finally looked a team that figured it out last week. Watching the game last week I left being extremely impressed with their ability to control the line of scrimmage, run the ball and put themselves in manageable 3rd down situations. The Cowboys minus a win against the Giants have looked horrible all season. No reason the Cowboys should be the favorites in this game. Especially without Sean Lee who leads that team. Lions +2.5 I am personally sprinkling ML as well.
Teaser
Pats -.5
Jags -1
Will be in front of the tv for every game today. Would look to tweet out and talk about the games with subscribers. Please follow me on Twitter @titotalkssports
As we head into another Saturday we look to keep things rolling in College Football finishing 4-2 and hitting a 3 team teaser. This week is not the prettiest card in football history but value can still be found
FAU vs. MTSU.
The Pick FAU -3.5
FAU has losses this year to UCF and Oklahoma who are two of the top teams in the country. FAU is 0-3 ATS this season and I think that is giving us a lot of value against MTSU. I expect them to roll today as they begin conference play. Middle Tenn State hasn’t impressed so far this season and I expect the better athletes and better coached team to come out on top
Ohio State vs. Penn St.
The Pick Ohio St -3.5
Ohio State has looked impressive all season long without Urban Meyer. There first game back came out and laid the wood down on Tulane who had a nice upset win last night over Memphis. Penn State has started most games slow and needed strong 2nd half’s to close out games and cover. They did it against Illinois, App State and Pitt. However, Ohio State is to good of team to allow you come out and roll them in the 2nd half. The Buckeyes should do really well in this spot and spoil the Whiteout in Happy Valley. I also lean towards the Under in this game. This is not the Big 12. I see this number creeping up higher towards game time has it hit 72 mid week. The public loves the over and will bet it before game time just for action. If it gets above 70.5 jump all over it.
USC vs. Arizona.
The Pick USC -3.5
We go back to well here with USC except this time we will get a better result. Even though we didn’t cash the USC ticket last week I walked away very impressed by how they played in the second half of that game. Arizona has looked bad losing to BYU and Houston. This team has only seen the red-zone 14 times this season and has shown they want Tate to be more of a passer which is not how they win or cover games.
Stanford vs. Notre Dame.
The Pick Over 52.5
The new look Ian Book led Notre Dame offense looked great last week against Wake Forest. I expect Ian Book to look better in his second week settling in at starter. Stanford is averaging over 11 yard per completion as well. Notre Dame is ranked 62nd in the country in rush defense and hasn’t seen a back like Bryce Love all season expect a big game from him since Notre Dame was the only team to keep him out of the end zone last season.
Pitt vs. UCF.
The Pick UCF -13
I truly believe UCF will score a lot and do it quickly. Pitt offense is not strong enough to keep up with McKenzie Milton and company. UCF needs every non conference game to be a highlight tape if they are going to impress the committee for a shot at the National Championship.
WVU vs. Texas Tech.
The Pick Texas Tech +4
Texas Tech has been an impressive team all season. They got a huge win in Stillwater last week. Freshmen Alan Bowman has looked impressive this season and could be the just savior Kliff Kingsbury needed. I will take a home dog getting 4 points at home in a ranked conference matchup. We will also be on sharp side of this one as the Action Network reports 53% of bets on WVU with only 41% of the money.
Temple Vs. Boston College
The Pick Over 54
Temple rush defense hasn’t looked good all season ranked 76th in the country and is averaging over 175 yards per game against them. They are also banged up on the defensive line and not sure if they have depth they need on their above the line (depth chart). Temple haven’t seen a back like AJ Dillon all season either. Last week Temple looked at times like it was unable to keep up when Tulsa was running a high tempo and got lucky with Tulsa mistakes. This Boston College team is much efficient with the ball in their hands and will not play as sloppy. Since turning the offense over to Anthony Russo they have looked much better on offense and he has a very strong arm and can move well in the pocket. With Boston College’s up-tempo offense it should allow them Temple to get on the board.
Hawaii vs. SJSU
The Pick Hawaii -10
San Jose State is not a good team and is catching some love after covering a 41.5 point spread against Oregon in a clear look ahead spot. Oregon had Stanford on deck and knew they could blow past SJSU. Hawaii I expect to put up points fast in this game and not give San Jose a chance to keep up.
Please Follow me on twitter @TitoTalksSports love to hear your opinions and likes.
Arkansas is currently in full-blown rebuild mode and the fans don’t even care about this team. They average 5.2 yards per play and this is against teams like North Texas, Colorado State, Eastern Illinois and Auburn. Now they face a very motivated Texas A & M team that has a new coach in Jimbo Fisher averaging 7 yards per play against teams like Clemson and Alabama. Even against this tough schedule, the Aggies have been able to hold their opponents to an average of 22.5 points per game. Arkansas is a train wreck this year and will be lucky to move the ball and score any points.
Texas A & M -21
Florida vs Mississippi State -9 O/U 51
Well this game set up well for the Bulldogs. Had the beat Kentucky then I would not be sure if I liked it. I love teams in a good bounce back spot and this one lines up well. Florida just took care of their rival Tennessee and now has to go on the road again to face this pissed off team. The Bulldogs could not stop the run against Kentucky but their defense is till averaging 13.5 points allowed as well as 3.25 yards per run and 4.22 Yards per play. Florida on the other hand hasn’t faced anyone tough except Kentucky at home and they have some QB issues. I like Mississippi state to stack the box and win by 13.
Miss State -9
Let’s stay right here. Florida really has no passing game and is the second slowest playing team in the league at 56 plays per game and Mississippi State ranks 99th at 67 plays per game. Both teams held their opponents to under 16 points per game on average on defense and Mississippi state is great defending teams to 4.2 yards per play.
Under 50.5
Florida State vs Louisville +5
Ok, Louisville is an absolute train wreck right now. The only good team that they played was Bama and they still only average 3.7 yards on the ground and a just 4.7 yards per play averaging only 17 points per game. Louisville also gives up about 5.6 yards per play. Florida State we know stinks as well but I think they have played harder competition in Syracuse, Northern Illinois and Virginia Tech. They are at least averaging 5.1 yards per play and giving up 5.2. I like Florida State to win by a TD or so. This is an ugly game but one with some value.
Florida State -5
Michigan vs Northwestern + 13
This game actually set up pretty nicely for me. Northwestern coming off a bye and a terrible loss to Akron while Michigan coming off a very easy win against a Nebraska team that plays fast. If you look at the total of this game it is pretty low for college football which also tells me that this spread might be a bit too high. The market is so low on Northwestern for losing to Duke and Akron that I think there is some dog value here. Michigan has been wooping up on teams pretty good lately but this is still the same team that lost to a Whimbush led Notre Dame team. They really haven’t played anybody good this year and I think Northwestern should be able to slow this game down. I like that the Wildcats are averaging 3.9 yards per game against the run on defense when you see that Michigan is a run first type team. 2/3rds of Michigan’s plays have been running plays so I think this is a low scoring punt a ton type game. Most importantly Northwestern needs a huge game here.
Northwestern +13
Baylor vs Oklahoma -24
So we saw Oklahoma get frustrated for not preparing correctly vs Army. They almost lost this game outright but survived. Baylor on the other hand has not been good over the past 3 or 4 years since RG3 and is therefore not respected in the marketplace. One thing you can’t ignore is Baylor’s potent offense that averages 7 yards per play and a 153 QB Rating. This Baylor team last year when young also only lost to Oklahoma by 8 points and these kids know that they can hang with them a little bit. Now we know how strong Oklahoma’s offense is and all and they should be able to score when they want but I think in the back of their minds that they might be looking ahead to a Texas team that just beat TCU and is very hungry to face the Sooners. I think Baylor can keep up with these guys and the fact that their defense is at least stopping teams to a 117 passing rating and 5.45 yards per play that they can keep this game within 20.
Baylor +24
Pittsburgh vs Central Florida – 15
I find it pretty strange that Central Florida only has 4 away games this year. Their UNC game was cancelled but still! Lucky them huh. What isn’t lucky is that they do not have any hard games on their schedule for them to have a chance to get into the playoffs again… Because of this they pretty much are trying to destroy every team on their schedule. Since they play so fast and McKenzie Milton is so good, any team that they play that isn’t top 50 should be on auto-bet for you if the spread is less than 20. The stats shouldn’t even matter at this point
UCF -15
Virginia Tech vs Duke – 5.5
This handicap is actually pretty simple to me. Virginia Tech lost Josh Jackson to a broken Fibula and Duke’s backup QB Quentin Harris is actually pretty good. Duke has played a much harder schedule than Virginia Tech and we gave them way too much Credit for beating Florida State. Even with Jackson I have Duke beating them by 10 points in the power ratings.
Duke – 5.5
Oregon State vs ASU O/U 64.5
So we know that Oregon State plays pretty fast at 80 plays per game but at the same time Arizona State plays pretty slow at 69. The fact that ASU is at home should bode well for them. ASU can control this game due to their stellar defense allowing just 18 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. ASU has played a pretty hard schedule against some good offenses as well. Herm isn’t a run up the score kind of guy and I think they run the ball this whole game. I love this under and it should hit easily.
Under 64.5
Texas vs K State O/U 47.5
Kansas State seems really bad this year. Worst that I have seen in a long time. When they played ranked teams, they failed to score over 10 points. Texas has a decent defense holding teams to 21 points per game and they played a decent schedule with TCU and Maryland and USC. Texas is also looking ahead to Oklahoma and I doubt they want to get too cute here. I think Texas wins this game 23-13 in a very boring game.
OTHER PLAYS
UAB – 17 vs Charlotte. Charlotte has a QB injury as well and UAB is 10-5-1 ATS since last year and 4-2-1 as a favorite. Charlotte is a pretty bad team.
BYU +17.5 ML sprinkle vs Washington: BYU is a much better team then people think this year. They carry the ball and run clock.
Ohio -13 vs UMASS – Umass has some serious QB injury problems. Both Andrew Ford and Ross Comis got injured last game
Other Games
Ohio State vs Penn State +4 – I have Ohio State by like 1 point or so. The White out night game is more like a 5 point home field advantage. This is a Revenge spot for Penn State but they did not look great a few games this year vs Appalachian State and 3 quarters vs Illinois. Super high total. Small lean on Penn State
Virginia vs NC State Under 52.5 – back to the well with Virginia. Bronco Mendenhall is a good coach and likes to pound the ball. NC State plays an average pace at 73 plays per game but Virginia plays 109th in pace at 65 plays per game. This game will go fast because the clock is going to run run run. Both teams allow less than 3.8 yards per run and both defenses average less than 18 points per game. Virginia is at 17.8 and NC State is at 13.3. This should go way under
West Virginia vs Texas Tech +4.5 O/U 77.5
Ok, so its very evident to me that Texas Tech is in a let down spot after beating Oklahoma State. It is also very evident to me that West Virginia hasn’t played anybody. I think Texas Tech is better than Ole Miss and would beat them if they replayed that brutal game. Both teams have very high-powered offenses and good efficiencies. Texas Tech averages 6.7 yards per play and Virginia averages 8.2. What I found strange is that Texas Tech is number 2 in plays per game at 98 plays per game and the mountaineers are 122nd at 64 plays per game. Part of this reason is that they have been beating tomato cans such as Tennessee, Youngstown State and Kansas State. What I did find surprising is that both defenses are doing pretty well but its hard to compare them when one team played the 21st hardest schedule and West Virginia has played the 95th hardest schedule. The power ratings have West Virginia a slight favorite on a neutral field so in this instance you have to go with the home dog. I also may be taking the under in this game.
Texas Tech +4.5 and ML Sprinkle 1 Unit
Purdue vs Nebraska – Premium Play
Arkansas State vs Georgia Southern – Premium Play
Northern Illinois vs Eastern Michigan – Premium Play
Louisiana Monroe vs Georgia State – Premium Play
Sharp Money Report:
Georgia Tech to -28 hosting Bowling Green
Kansas + 28 vs Oklahoma State
Virginia to +6 at NC State
Georgia State +7.5 hosting Louisiana Monroe – I disagree there
Ohio hosting Umass -13. They have 99% of the money on them
Tennessee +31 at Georgia
Nevada +7.5 vs AIrforce
Middle Tenn State +3 hosting Florida Atlantic
Texas A & M hosting Arkansas has 99% of the money. Public and Sharp
Fresno State to -10 hosting Toledo
Sharp Totals:
Memphis vs Toledo Over 69
Texas A & M vs Arkansas under 62
Ok State vs Kansas under 62
Ball State over 63.5
UCF vs Pitt Both sharps and Squares on over to 66
Baylor vs Oklahoma under 69,5
Purdue vs Nebraska 2 way action on the over 57 91%
App State vs South Alabama under down to 57.5
Tennessee vs Georgia under to 52′
Nevada vs Airforce 2 way action over to 68.5
Michigan vs Northwestern under 48
Florida vs Miss State under 51
Duke vs Va Tech under 51
FAU vs MTSU under has 2 way action down to 66.5
Oregon St vs ASU under 63.5
Oregon vs Cal under to 58.5
The National Flag League: NFL
Vikings at Rams -6.5 –
I am going to start right off the bat playing against the over reaction to the Bills loss. I mean, what would this spread look like had the Vikings their kicker completed a Field Goal in Green bay and didn’t look past the BIlls last week? 4 points, maybe 5? This Viking team is still the team that improved their Quarterback from 2017 and just missed going to the NFC Championship game. As far as the Rams, who have they even played??? The injured Chargers, the hopeless Raiders and the 0-3 Cardinals at home. They key here for me is that the Rams have lost their TOP 2 corner backs for this week in Marcus Peters and Aquib Talib. I also do not like that they lost Zuerlein in this game situation. For the Vikings, they are a bit beat up as well. I am hoping Delvin Cook plays and they need Center Josh Andrews back. I do not like that Everson Griffen just went nuts on the Vikings and was committed to the Looney bin, but they still should have the talent to keep this game close. Mike Zimmer will not get wooped upon again.
Vikings +6.5
San Francisco vs LA Chargers -10.5 –
Ok, does C.J. Beathard have any business being in the NFL? Probably not but that does’t mean that he is as bad as some of the other garbage that I see out there. At last the guy has a 55% completion percentage and a 69 QB rating. Most importantly to me is how the hell is the Chargers laying this many points with that terrible Defense? The Chargers give up second worst 31 points per game and 6.3 yards per play. Even a terrible team should be able to move the ball here. the 49ers are second in the NFL in rushing yards and should be able to control the pace of this game. Expect Breida and Morris to have big days. I know the loss of Richard Sherman will hurt this team but the Chargers may be without Mike Williams as well. This line pays no respect to Kyle Shanahan whatsoever. I think Kyle will be able to dumb down this offense a bit to a dink and dunk style and be able to keep this game closer.
49ers + 10.5
Kansas City vs Denver +5.5 and O/U 56
Will the Patrick Mahomes train run out of steam? Well according to the Power ratings and the NFL efficient index this spread is inflated. The obvious reason for this is that Kansas City has one of the worst Defenses in the League allowing 474 yards per game, 6.7 yards per play and 30.7 points per game. The problem here is that they have the best offense in the league averaging 39 points and 400 yards per game. The Chiefs have the second best red-zone efficiency at 92% and over all the best offensive efficiency in the League. For these reasons I do not want to even touch the spread on Denver’s side. But what I do like is Denver’s ability to run the ball and slow the game down. The Broncos are 3rd in rushing yards per game and top 8 in attempts. We know that Case Keenum can’t make the long throw and this is why the Bronco’s games go pretty quickly. Denver also has a pretty good defense, top 10 in sacks and top 13 in yards per play. Denver also doesn’t score too quickly and they are one of the worst in Yards per point at 18.8 I think that they run the ball here at home and slow down the amazing Kansas City’s prolific offense.
Under 56 points
Eagles vs Titans +4 O/U 41.5
When it comes to defense, both of these teams have been very good this year. When it comes to pace of play Tennessee is one of the slowest. The Eagles have the 5th best at Red Zone Defense allowing only a 33.33% success rate for touchdowns while Tennessee is number 1 at 16.67 percent. Let’s face it, the Eagles are banged up! Ajayi is hurting and missing games. No more Torrey Smith. Mike Wallace is out for the year. Alshawn Jeffery isn’t back yet. Who does that leave you? Agolor and Ertz. Now a rusty Carson Wentz is coming into Tennessee trying to score points. On the other side of the coin, Marcus Mariotta has been banged up and so is their backup Blaine Gabbert with a concussion. The Titans also lost their top pass catcher earlier this year in Delainey Walker. Both offenses together are only putting up 16 and 20 points per game for a total of 36 while these 2 defenses allow only 17 and 18 points per game for a total of 35 points per game as it is.
Be mindful that some of these lines may have moved since earlier in the week. Any questions, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @dedgesportpicks
Virginia at NC St -6
Bryce Perkins leads Virginia into NC St territory this week. The dual threat QB and offense has been balanced overall this year averaging 218 passing yards and 216 rushing yards per game.
NC St’s defense needs to show up this week and be well disciplined. If they can contain Perkins and make someone else beat them they should rise to the occasion. Ryan Finley is having another outstanding year that should continue here against a decent Virginia defense.
The last time Virginia played a road game against a power 5 team they only mustered 16 points at Indiana and lost the game 20-16. I believe this NC St squad is better than Indiana and should pull this one out. Take NC St -6.
Virginia Tech at Duke -5
Virginia Tech is coming off a game where they lost to Old Dominion as a huge favorite. That should have lit a fire under their butts. However, they lost QB Josh Jackson and will have to turn to their backup.
Duke is coming into this game undefeated, even after losing QB Daniel Jones.Quentin Harris has filled that role admirably and their defense has played well also. Take Duke -5.
Bowling Green at Georgia Tech O/U65.5
A bad Bowling Green team comes into Atlanta to face Georgia Tech. Bowling Green has mostly been in the mid teens to 20s for points in their past games.
This could be a little bit of a look ahead spot for GT as they go on the road to face Louisville next week in a conference game. They have the tools to get a big lead and then run clock with the triple option to get out with a win and without injuries. This could be somewhere around a 35-20 type game. Take UNDER 65.5.
Today we cover our college week 5 free picks as well as sharp line movement! Then @cubfandanny comes in to help break down his picks for the NFL week 4!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.mybookie.ag for a 100% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
