October 18th, 8:20pm, State Farm Stadium – Glendale, AZ
This Thursday we go back to the good old fashioned Thursday Night Football: two bad teams facing off to prove who sucks the least.
The Denver Broncos travel to Arizona with a 4-game losing streak after coming up short vs the powerhouse Rams in week 6. Although Case Keenum hasn’t continued his success from Minnesota and almost got benched last week, the Broncos still rank 10th in offensive yards per game due to a balanced running attack and a deep receiving core. The offensive production has been above average but the points haven’t been there, thanks in part to a 25th ranked red-zone offense.
Arizona didn’t look horrible against the Vikings but Minnesota proved they were too much to handle. Arizona’s defense has played relatively well this season and has been the only positive thing for the 1-5 team. Their defense ranks 8th in ypg allowed and 13th in ppg allowed. Their offense however is the 31st in points per game and 32nd in yards per game. 2016 Fantasy monster David Johnson hasn’t showed up the way that Arizona expected when they signed him to a contract extension this summer. To further pound on Arizona’s offensive woes, the Cardinals have scored more than 17 points just once this season (thanks to a defensive touchdown) and it was against Swiss cheese defense San Francisco who ranks 29th in points allowed per game.
Von Miller has come out and not only said that this game is a must win, but he has guaranteed a Denver victory. That alone would have me sold.
The verdict:
Denver ML: I’m taking Denver in this game and they are currently -1.5 (-110) or Moneyline (-120). I’d rather pay some money on the juice than get burned by the spread, so I’ll take the Denver straight up.
Under 41.5: As for the 26th and 31st ranked scoring offenses in the league, we’ll get some understorms indoors.
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Happy Tip off! NBA returns Tonight with the Philadelphia 76ers traveling to Boston to take on Kyrie and the Celtics. The sixers will have revenge on their mind as Boston is responsible for eliminating them last Post season 4-1; They also won 3 of the 4 regular season matchups. This game has a lot different look then the last time these two teams met. Kyrie and Gordon Hayward will be playing as Boston comes in about as healthy as you can expect, meanwhile the Sixers are already dealing with a few minor day to day injuries with Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, and Mike Muscala. Wilson Chandler is ruled out of tonight’s game. Another lineup change in Philly is Fultz starting in place of Reddick. Ersan Ilyasova & Marco Belinelli both left in free agency add shooting, to the multiple question Philly brings offensively this season. You know what you get with a Sixers defense allowing the least amount of points in the paint last season. Both these teams are solid defensively, with both teams having much different lineups then the last time they met and it being the first game of the year look for this one to go under 209. In this day in age taking a NBA under seems crazy especially since the last 3 times these teams met in Boston it’s gone over. But I think we see a defensive struggle between two teams trying to figure out exactly what they have.
@thepublicdog recaps college football week 7. We then go into betting spots for week 8. @dnasty#1 Dnasty then comes in to break down fantasy football week 7! Key injuries, waiver wire, break out players and sleepers of the week!
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First and foremost this is probably my favorite game of the weekend. I love the AAC and I love points so I know I will be locked in for this game. Memphis should be getting close to 7 points in this game. Memphis has looked bad throughout the season losing to Navy and losing to Tulane already this season. All UCF has done this season is played fast and scored points.Memphis is not as good this season without Anthony Miller and Riley Ferguson.UCF still feels disrespected in the polls and knows this game will have a huge impact on their ability to move up with a statement win on the road. UCF -5.
WVU vs. ISU
West Virginia finds themselves in the drivers seat now in the Big12 currently undefeated after Texas took down Oklahoma. I have these teams ranked about 8 points different and I don’t value home field as much as most teams This is a tough spot for ISU who upset OK State last week as 9 point dogs. ISU will be starting a back up quarterback who played well last week but this WVU defense hasn’t played terrible all season given up under 5 yards per play. WVU is also 4-1 ATS against the Cyclones. Give me the Mountaineers -6
Temple vs Navy
If Navy wants to get back to its winning ways after an awful loss to Air Force they will need to do what they did against Memphis and that is control the clock. Temple offensively this season hasn’t been throwing the ball well and has struggled to get their best playmaker Wright involved. However they have ran the ball extremely well lately and I expect them to rely on the run. The clock will be running throughout the game.The over under is currently at 49. I recommend buying the half point. Under 49.5
Ole Miss vs. Arkansas
This is strictly a weather play for me. The Little Rock weather on Saturday night is calling for 10-15 mph winds and heavy rain. Arkansas for them to have a shot in this game will be to control the clock and use their running backs. A shootout in the rain is not a game I expect them to try and play. Under 67.5
Teaser
Georgia -1
VT -.5
I may add more plays on Twitter and some team totals that I findvalue on once they become available. Check me out @titotalkssports
Uncle Tito checking in for our new weekly series on how to make it in your survivor pool. Make sure to throw me a follow on Twitter @TitoTalksSports
Happy to havepicked a winner last week with the New England Patriots and or the Panthers if you had used the Patriots already. I would have probably had to quit this article series if I got the first pick wrong. In all seriousness Andrew Luck 0-6 lifetime against the Patriots (TB12) is a play I would make 10 out 10 times. Remember the strategy is always move on and not worrying about saving a team for later on in the year.
Logical Choices
Rams -7 vs. Broncos
Bills vs. Texans -10
Arizona vs. Vikings -10
Rams
I love what Sean Mcvay is doing in LA he has this team locked and loaded and ready to play. However, I don’t think this is a great spot for the Rams. Back to Back road games and last weeks game was a tough battle against a Seahawks team that fought until the end. Playing in the Denver altitude is tough and not something I would want to do after playing a tough road game the week prior. Also I think the Broncos get up for this game after they got embarrassed by the New York Jets. I do believe the Rams win but safer plays are on the board this week. Stay away team.
Bills vs. Texans.
The Bills defense hasn’t looked bad but this a tough spot for them. They pulled off a huge upset at home in Orchard Park against the Titans who a week prior beat the defending champs.The Bills away from home haven’t been great. 1-2 and those two losses are 47-3 loss to Baltimore and 22-0 loss to Green Bay. The Texans should get the job done by placing a lotpressure on Josh Allen. Watson took a beating last week and is questionable on the injury report. Unless the QB’s name is Brady or Rodgers I would rather not put my faith a quarterback on the injury report. However, the Bills ruined enough survivor pools already and I won’t risk it on them.
Arizona vs. Vikings
The Vikings are sailing high after beating the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Vikes and Kirk Cousins looked awesome on offense compiling 301 yards completing 30 of 38 passes against a Birds defense that plays great at home. The Cardinals got a win against a struggling 49ers team. The Vikings will get up for this game since they learned the hard way about what can happen if you overlook an opponent. The Vikings are my top choice this week.
Kiev O’Neil goes solo in a short week coming back from Buffalo to give you some of his favorite plays and breakdowns for College Football week 7 an NFL week 6.
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Line’s are getting very sharp now so it is Quality over Quantity!
Tennessee vs Auburn – 17 –
Well if you look at why Mississippi State beat this Auburn team it had a lot more to due than the passing game. Nick Fitzgerald had 195 yards rushing the ball. He wasn’t property contained and was able to take off running. Fitzgerald was also Motivated by breaking Tim Tebow’s rushing record. I think that Tennessee’s offense is much different than the Bulldogs and will be much easier to Handle. The Vols defense is one of the worst in the SEC giving up 6.5 yards per play to conference opponents while Auburn is at 4.88. Auburn also averages 5.4 yards per play even with Jerrod Stidham’s regression at Quarterback and O line. I am going to throw this Miss State game out and Take the
Tigers -17
UCF vs Memphis – +4.5
When was the last time UCF didn’t outscore their opponent by a Touchdown? December of 2016!!!! How can you not lay les than a TD against an AAC opponent with this team? Memphis hasn’t even played anybody with a pulse yet. Their schedule ranks a LOWEST in FBS 157th on Sagarin. This means that many FCS teams have already had a harder schedule than them. Central Florida also had a pretty easy road but at last they played Pittsburgh and Florida Atlantic. The key here for me is that Memphis has a new quarterback this year in Brady White who lost to Navy and Tulane and who hasn’t even faced a top 85 team while McKenzy Milton beat teams like Auburn last year and FAU and PItt this year. Pure Power Ratings has this game at UCF by 8. Laying the road points…..
UCF -4.5
Nebraska vs Northwestern – 6.5
I really do not get this line move. It went from +9 to +4 or 5 in many books. I took it at -6.5 thinking it was done. The badgers are having a down year and were favored by 18 to this team a few days ago. I do not think the Badgers are 14 points better than Northwestern. Most of this was due to the let down spot for Northwestern as well as the yards put up against the Badgers. What you do not see is that most of Nebraska’s yards came in Garbage time second half when Wisco was looking to Michigan and put in 2nd and third string on defense. I am handicapping this game by looking at what Northwestern has done since its hiccup against Duke and Akron. They beat Michigan State and should have beaten Michigan at home. They are number 8 in total defense at 424 yards per game vs Conference opponents while Nebraska is worse than Illinois and Rutgers at 513 total yards. Most of Nebraska’s yards are in garbage time so it is very hard to quantify. Instead for this game I like to look at efficiency which looks at things like Strength of schedule, Net points per drive, Possession success rates and with the FEI ratings Northwestern is a 27 and Nebraska is a 79. Lastly Northwestern is 0-3 at home and is looking for a good victory for their fans.
Northwestern -6.5 and Over 59.5
Air Force vs San Diego State -10.5
This game is really all about the running game metrics to me. Both teams are good at running the ball but not passing, and both teams are great against the run too. So this says under right? Well its down to 45.5 and i still lean under but I feel a little better about the spread here. It’s a good rule of thumb to take the dog when the spread is 20% or greater compared with the total. Both of these teams are kinda in let down spots after their big wins the week before with Utah State having a slightly harder schedule. I like the fact that Airforce averages 13 yards per point to San Diego State’s 16.5. I also like how Airforce decided to switch to their better QB Donald Hammond III. Power ratings say this should be about a 7 point spread. Now I know Rocky long is good against the Triple Option but this is the first option team the kids will see this year. Oh, and Airforce did beat this team at home by 4 points last year. I think this goes a lot like the Eastern Michigan vs San Diego State game and I will take the points.
San Diego State +10.5
Houston vs East Carolina O/U 67.5
Man I love the way Houston plays offense this year. D’Eriq King is an athlete and they average 50 points per game and 7.5 yards per play. E Carolina plays fast at 84 plays per game. That’s top 7. Being at home they should be able to put up some points against a shaky Houston defense that allows 5.5 yards per play and 30 points per game. East Carolina also averages 33 points per game at home. Houston is also top 40 in plays per game. I see this score Houston 48 – 30 worst case.
Houston over 67.5
Texas A&M vs South Carolina – Premium Equal in Net yards per play at 5.8. South Carolina has an injury list and its bad. Schedule really says it all here.
Louisville vs Boston College – Premium
Marshall vs Old Dominion – Premium
Florida vs Vanderbilt – Premium
Quick Hitters
Wisconsin vs Michigan Over 47.5 but also leaning Michigan -8 – Wisconsin gives up 6 yards per play and haven’t played much yet… Michigan averages 6.5 yards per play and 38 points per game.
Arizona vs Utah under 52 points – Kalil Tate doesn’t run anymore. Utah holds opponents to 17.2 points per game and 4.45 yards and had a way harder schedule, The under is 5-1 this year for AZ
Sharp Line Movement: I only cover actual sharp line movement due to sharp betting. Must be a 20% difference between tickets and Money for sides, 30% for totals and will cover dual action
Arkansas State was sharp on Tuesday but they lost at 10.5
Tennessee down to 15.5 from 18 vs Auburn (disagree)
Maryland vs Rutgers from -23 to -25.5
Toledo -1 vs Eastern Michigan 41% difference
Buffalo -9 to -12 hosting Akron
Nebraska +9 to +4 at Northwestern – Huge overkill here to me
K State from +7.5 to +6.5 hosting Oklahoma State
Kent State +12.5 to +11 at Miami Ohio
Central Michigan from pick to -5 hosting Ball State
Old dominion hosting Marshall +4.5 to +3.5 large on at 31% difference
Utah State -23.5 to -27.5 hosting UNLV dual action on this and 91% of money on Utah State
UCLA +7.5 at Cal with a 41% difference
Wyoming +19.5 to +18.5 hosting Fresno
Nevada +19.5 to +17 hosting Boise State
Totals
Texas State vs Georgia Southern Under to 49 from 51
Airforce vs San Diego State under to 43.5 from 44, 43% difference
Akron vs Buffalo under to 53.5 from 57
UAB vs Rice over 52.5
Texas A & M over 52 – kinda like that one
Baylor vs Texas over from 59-60 Dual Action
Army vs San Jose State under from 54 to 52.5 51% difference
Purdue vs Illinois over 56 to 62 Large Move
UCF vs Memphis over 77 to 81 no surprises dual action
Georgia vs LSU under from 51 to 50.5
Louisiana Monroe vs Coastal Carolina under 66.5 to 65.5
Hawaii vs BYU under 56
Wisconsin vs Michigan under 47.5 from 48 (i disagree with that)
Boise State vs Nevada Dual action over 58.5 to 60.5
NFL Plays:
Niners vs Packers -9.5
This situational handicap will work well against a 49ers team without a real quarterback. Packers over doubled the lions yards last game and still lost due to 3 fumbles and 4 missed field goals. The Packers defense is improving only giving up 22.8 points per game and number 4 in yards at 313. The 49ers are on the second quarterback who likes to throw the picks that has a less than 1-1 TD to interception Ratio. That’s pretty bad! Plus the Niners have 3 injured offensive lineman who are questionable and now on their 3rd running back Alford Morris. Green bay should be getting some guys back from injury such as Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb. The Packers should be in beast mode right now trying to wrong the game from last week and once again go above .500
Packers -9.5
Chicago vs Miami +3.5
Looking at Miami’s injuries you have to be concerned for this team. They recently lost Center Daniel Kilgore and now Laremy Tunsil is questionable at Tackle. Top wide-out Parker is Highly questionable as well. The Bears on the other hand are coming off a Bye and feeling pretty good after that Tampa game. They are pretty healthy and ready to ride on that confidence that was won with 6 TDS from Trubisky. Chicago is second on defense allowing only 294 yards per game with Miami at 22nd at 382. Chicago is number 1 in sacks against a beat up Miami o line. Lastly, Miami is a dismal 30th in total offense? Miami has been exposed the last few weeks and will again at home vs the hungry Bears.
Bears -3.5 and will probably hit the first half as well
Teasers:
Vikings to -4.5 vs Cardinals with the Broncos to +13 vs Rams
Jets to +3.5 vs colts with the Raiders to +9 vs the Seahawks in london
@thepublicdog recaps college football week 7. We then go into betting spots for week 7. @dnasty#1 Dnasty then comes in to break down fantasy football week 6! Key injuries, waiver wire, break out players and sleepers of the week!
Should you need a sports book please visit www.youwager.eu for a 100% signup bonus for first time users by using the promo code “theoddsbreakers” terms and conditions apply.
www.theoddsbreakers.com
For only 12.99 a month become an ODDSBREAKER’S MEMBER and gain access to all premium picks BEFORE the line moves please visit: https://www.patreon.com/bePatron?c=1872377
Follow us on Twitter @theoddsbreakers @thepublicdog #theoddsbreakers
