We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil discusses the next set of bowl games with some plays and some leans. We then get into more Sharp Line Movement in the NCAA and the NFL. Cub Fan Danny @cubfandanny then comes in to break down some NFL Plays for week 15! We also spoke a bit about the state of the Vikings after the firing of John DeFilippo.
College: San Diego State vs Ohio – UAB vs North Illinois – Florida International vs Toledo and more!
NFL: Green Bay vs Chicago – NY Jets vs Houston – Cleveland vs Denver – Philadelphia vs LA Rams and more!
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Auto-nation Cure Bowl in Orlando Florida – Tulane vs Louisiana +3.5 O/U 59
Well here we go right out of the gates here with a game between an option team in Tulane with a decent defense against a high powered Louisiana offense at 6.7 yards per play with a very bad defense. The reason that you see a spread of 3.5 is because of the fact that Louisiana plays in the Sun belt which is looked at as less of a conference and the Ragin Cajun’s defense should allow Tulane to almost score at will giving up 6.4 yards per play. Now we said this about the Sun Belt and how they all sucked last year and then they of course went ahead and went 5-0 in bowl games upsetting the hell out of teams. Being that Tulane also gives up a healthy 5.6 yards per play I really do not think Louisiana will be short of any points here. One would think that Louisiana isn’t the better running team against an option team but they do average 5.7 yards per rush over 4.6 for Tulane. I like the fact that the Ragin Cajuns have about 2 weeks to prepare for this team. I really can’t bet the over in good conscious when Louisiana ranks 115th in plays per game and Tulane ranks 70th but i’ll take the hook.
Louisiana +3.5 and lean over 59
New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque NM – N Texas vs Utah State -9 O/U 66.5
So this spread was at 11 and sharp money hit the N Texas side due to Utah State’s coach Matt Wells going to Texas Tech and will not be coaching the bowl game. For a while some people were calling this Utah State team the best group of 5 team, but in my opinion, that Michigan State close loss isn’t really looking quite as good at the end of the season. Now Utah State was a very nice team to bet on at 9-3 ATS this year and led by a very good quarterback Jordan Love but looking at their schedule I believe it was pretty easy. North Texas on the other hand is in an inferior division (or supposed to be) and hasn’t even played a ranked team so you can’t exactly give them much there. Both of these teams are pretty equal on defense allowing 5.1-ish yards per play but Utah state has the slight edge on offense at 6.9 yards per play over 6.4. Power ratings have Utah State by 10 but I think this bowl game could be a bit closer that that due to losing Matt Wells and facing a motivated team.
Lean N Texas +9
The Las Vegas Bowl, Las Vegas NV – Arizona State vs Fresno State -4.5 O/U 53.5
You play to win the game! Right Hermy? Well Herm Edwards has done a fantastic job this year going 7-5 straight up as well as 7-5 ATS. Nobody thought this team would be in the mix this year for the Pac 12 south and they just missed making it in losing to Oregon by 2 points. ASU is well coached and they have a solid defense allowing only 4.6 yards per play. Their offense isn’t too shabby either. Fresno State on the other hand also had an amazing season sealing the Mountain West championship and cashing our 6-1 ticket. AT 9-4 against the spread this team was very under appreciated. I am actually surprised that Jeff Tedford hasn’t gotten any big offers from power 5 schools. Fresno State has a very solid offense at 6.2 yards per play and a similar defense to ASU allowing 4.7 yards per play. Now the big news here to ASU that hit them pretty hard was that N’Keal Harry isn’t going to play this game and hold out for the NFL draft. Harry was the Sun Devil’s best WR by far with over 1000 receiving yards. This is definitely a big hit to this team but I also think the spread too big at -4.5 being that ASU had a harder strength of schedule. The only ranked team that Fresno State played is Boise State and they went 1-1 this year against them. I am going to watch this spread go up and up and most likely take ASU.
Strong Lean to ASU+4.5
The Camellia Bowl, Montgomery Alabama – Eastern Michigan vs Georgia Southern -1 O/U 47.5
All I have to say is “Go Eagles!” So I do not understand this line so much. I think it is more because of the bias against the Sun Belt honestly. My Power ratings have Georgia Southern as a 2.5 favorite and Sagarin has them as a 1 pointer. I must be wrong right? Well what I am definitely not wrong about is not too many people from Michigan are excited to go to Montgomery Alabama for a bowl game and I am also sure of the fact that Georgia Southern is only a little 4.5 hour drive away. I am also sure that Eastern Michigan is great against the pass in beating Purdue, Toledo and keeping up with Buffalo this year but they are bad against the run giving up 4.4 yards per carry losing to San Diego State, Northern Illinois and another option team Army by 15 points. The Georgia Southern Eagles this year average 5.3 on the ground and should be able to run all over this team.
Georgia Southern -1
New Orleans Bowl, New Orleans LA – Middle Tennessee St vs Appalachian State -7 O/U 50.5
Ok, this line got bet a bit down due to a few things. Scott Satterfield is moving on from Appalachian State to Louisville and this is Brent Stockstill’s last game playing for his dad at Middle Tennessee State. Now this line is also about perception here. Like I said before, the Sun belt hasn’t been getting the props it deserves and I think that it is WROOOOOOONG. The Mountaineers have played great against passing teams such as Arkansas State, LA Lafayette, and of course taking Penn State down to the wire. This team’s only weak spot is against the run. Did I mention that the Blue Raiders are not a polished running team? The Blue Raiders also only average 5.5 yards per play on offense to the Mountaineers 6.4. The Mountaineers also are much better on D allowing 4.3 yards per play to 5.4. This is a full 1 net yard per play difference and it will come up big in this game. Now I know that there is an interim coach for the Mountaineers and his Name is Mark Ivy. He has been with the Organization for 7 years now and I do not think the players will all of a sudden take a dive because of him. There is no real home field advantage in this bowl for anyone so I am going against the motivational narrative for the Blue Raiders and lean Appalachian State -7
Derek Henry 238 yards and 4 TDs. 51 Fantasy Points
Amari Cooper – 3 TDs and 217 Yards
Tom Brady – 3 Tds
George Kittle 210 yards and 1 TD
Brett Maher K – 62 yarder and 13 points
Dak Prescott, JuJu smith Schuster – Saquon Barkley, Ryan Tannehill, Andrew Luck, Julio Jones, Eli Manning
Busts that lost your league:
Michael Crabtree 2 points, Gus Edwards 6 points, Todd Gurley about 7 points, Jared Goff -3.9 points, Cam Newton 0 Tds, David Johnson 0 Tds, Phillip Rivers 1 TD, Antonio Brown 6 points. Odell Beckham was a late scratch that had to burn some folks especially this week.
Key Injuries:
Ben Roethlisberger QB – Shoulder but should be ok
Lamar Jackson QB – Banged up but should be ok
LeShawn McCoy RB – Hammy
Chris Ivory RB – Arm
Jordan Reed TE – Sprained Foot week to week
Austin Eckler RB – Stinger
Tyreke Hill WR – Foot but probable
Waiver Wire:
Chris Ivory RB – Depends on his status and McCoys
Marcus Murphy RB – Depends on Ivory’s Status if McCoy out
Kelvin Benjamin WR – If Tyreke HIll is going to miss time
Chris Conley WR – If Tyreke Hill will miss time
Derek Henry RB – Only owned in 59% of leauges
Josh Johnson QB – Announced as Redskins Starter
Kenny Stills WR – Only owned in 31% of Leagues
Robert Foster WR – Had 8 Targets for the Bills
Kenneth Dixon RB – With Edwards kinda banged up he got a TD
Tonight Toronto starts their west coast road trip in Los Angeles against the Clippers. Both teams come in struggling a bit offensively. Clippers have been dealing with injury and are playing for the 2nd night in a row. The over is 3-1 when Clips play back to back, But I’m not seeing it hit tonight. Lou Williams is questionable tonight & on the other side Lowry has been ineffective lately and didn’t score sunday against the Bucks. These teams definitely have the ability to score but I see a lack of offensive efficiency being the key to this under hitting, as Ive said before teams are best on their 1st game of a trip and Raptors D will help us stay under.
6-3 in the NFL and today we break down last week’s games. The College football bowl games are rolling and we give you our December 15th free plays!! D-Nasty then comes in to break down Fantasy Football week 15. Week 14 Booms and Busts, Key injuries, waivers and break out players.
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www.theoddsbreakers.comPodcast 64 – 18 – NFL week 14 Recap – College Bowls December 15th Plays – Fantasy Football Week 15 Playoffs
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So here is a situation where it is a must win for both teams. Now it is even more of a must win for Minnesota because they are even in more danger than Seattle for missing the playoffs this year. The Seahawks at least know that they play 49ers and Cardinals again while getting the Chiefs at home. What is glaring to me is that Seattle really hasn’t faced that hard of an NFC west schedule this year with the 49ers and Cardinals so down. They also got to play the Raiders and the Lions. Now I love Russell Wilson and all but we must not forget that this team lost a ton from last year and this year they had to out score their opponents ton win. The Vikings have had some major injuries with Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr and Xavier Rhodes out. Well now all these guys are healthy. The Vikings defense is better than the Seahawks defense and I expect it to travel well this week. I also like the fact that they just played a great offense in the Patriots with Dalvin Cook showing signs of speed again. The wrong team is favored here.
Quick backstory, Holloway was supposed to fight Frankie
Edgar for the title last march and ended up with a leg injury so he pulled out.
Frankie could have sat and waited to get his title shot but he took the fight
against Ortega. Ortega hit him with a huge uppercut and KO’ed the Legend
Frankie Edgar.
That set up a fight between Max and Ortega in the
summer. Some of you might remember
leading up to the fight there was something wrong with Max Holloway, it turned
out he had concussion symptoms and the fight was cancelled a few days
before. Ortega had a chance to step up
and fight someone just like Frankie did with him but he refused every
offer. My question is why did he
refuse? He wanted the title shot? Scared of something happening with
injury? Maybe losing like Frankie did to
him and lose his title shot?
So here we go let me break down these fighters.
Max Hollow is such a fun fighter to watch. He loves to stand and bang against
everyone. He is really fluid, very
accurate and his punches are all solid. Moves in and out sticks and moves a
very smart fighter on his feet. He can be a little unorthodox with the way he
holds his hands up not letting his opponent know where the next shot is coming
from. He moves his arms a lot.
He has fought the best of the best. He just turned 27 and
has been in the UFC for a long time gaining some very valuable experience
against elite competition. Let me tell you some of these names.
Dustin Poirier, Dennis Bermudez, Conor McGregor, a younger
Cub Swanson, Charles Oliveria, Jeremy Stephens, Ricaro Lamas Anthony Pettis,
Jose Aldo twice. All of these guys are the top of the top in the UFC.
Max does not have the best BJJ, it is average at best but he
has always held his own because he is a fighter. Going up against what some consider to be the
best JuJitsu fighter in the UFC he has to stay away and has to keep doing what
he always does and use his standup to breakdown Ortega.
Brian Ortega
I love this guy as a fighter, he is a 145lb fighter but he
just looks bigger than 145lbs. He looks
like he is 170lb fighter. His Jiujitsu
is off the charts and like I mentioned before everyone remembers Frankie
getting uppercutted so hard he came off
his feet. That was amazing to see.
His standup game is average for an MMA fighter but where he
gets his super powers is from his BJJ.
He hasn’t fought the best competition in the MMA especially the guys he fought
are mostly past their prime.
In his last fightbefore Edgar he went against Cub Swanson. Cub dominated Ortega with his standupbut he ended up getting caught up close and put in a standing guillotine chokeat the end of the round. That took a lotout of Cub and when the second round came you would have thought his experiencewould have not let him get caught again with that, well he did.
Ortega needs to get this fight in close and get Holloway to
the ground and wear Max out. He will win
this fight on the ground and not standing like he did Frankie.
Money has been coming in on Ortega last week Ortega was at
+100 and -130 for Max today the line is
-105 with Ortega and Max at -125.
Now who do I like? I
am going with experience, I am going with a devastating stand up game and I am
going with the Champ Max Holloway. This fight will end 4th round or
after.
Valentiana Shevencko vs Joanna Jedrejczyk
This fight is opened at Joanna at +255 and Valentina at -335
Right now this fight is at +275 Joanna and -365 on
Valentina.
This is a brand new weight class for woman’s MMA it is the
Flyweight Division, 125lbs.
Everyone knows Joanna. She was the Champ at 115 and used her speed
and standup to take out by winning decisions over and over again. She really made everyone look bad in her
weight class. Here comes her fight
against Rose Namajuans. She was going to bully Rose into being scared of her
well, it didn’t happen. She got hit hard
in the first round and was getting pounded on the ground and tapped. She tapped from strikes. You never see someone tap from strikes. She gets her rematch against rose and loses
again but this time a unanimous decision.
She did say that her weight cuts down to 115 where brutal
and 125 is where she should be so now she is going up in weight. This will help her with her power but can
slow her down a little with her striking.
Valentina is the
best womans fighter that no one talks about.
He standup game is on point and powerful. She was at 135 and and fought your favorite
girl Amanda Nunes twice, first time it was a unanimous loss second time it was
a split decision but in my eyes she beat Amanda.
Her standup game is so technical and has major power in her
hands she is also very strong and is almost impossible to get her off you once
she has you on the ground. Dropping down
to 125 from 135 is going to be a major problem for everyone in that division
and you can see with the spread with this fight.
The play here is for Valentina to win this fight inside the
distance. What makes it hard to say
right now is how, will it be a KO TKO or a submission? I will be taking Valentina inside the
distance, I am leaning more towards a submission victory simply because she is
going to wear out Joanna early in the fight.
Alex Olivera Vs Gunnar Nelson
Alex is coming in as an underdog as of right now +110
Alex has some very impressive wins he is very long and
strong. Has very good power and can end
a fight very very fast. He has very good cardio and likes to fight on the
outside but can go to the ground and hold his own but he needs to keep this
fight on his feet. His kicks are
absolutely killer and drains fighters. He can get in trouble if the fight gets
to the ground early. What I like about Oliveria is his fights end before the 3
rounds are up. His fights are Submission
or TKO he will take someone out. Such a fun fighter to watch.
Gunnar Nelson
Took a brutal loss in 2017 and hasn’t fought since. He was coming off two performance of the
nights before the loss and has 4 total performance of the nights which is a
high honor when fighting MMA. His ground game is on point as he is a champion
with BJJ tournaments.
When he fights he has a Karate stance, very wide and bang
hits you. He will not want to throw with
Olivera he is going to try and take him down.
If he tries to stand and throw with Olivera he is in trouble.
Right now this fight is sitting at +110 Olivera and -135
Gunnar Nelson.
I like Olivera here in this fight. He is going to keep this fight standing and
when Gunnar comes forward he will hit him with a knee.
You can get plus money on Olivera now but if you want you
can also get even better odds with Oliveria ending this within the distance.
Couple of Quick bangers here
Eryk Anders and Elias Theodorou.
Right now you can get Anders at even or plus money depending
on where you shop and Elias at -125
Elias might be the most boring fighter in the UFC every
fight is a decision. He wants to grind
you and win on points no power. 9 fights
in the UFC 7 went to judges and 5-2 in those fights.
Anders is as strong as an OX. He was an up and comer a
brawler lost 2 out of three. He is
dropping in weight so do your research and find out how is weight cut went. If there aren’t any issues with his weigh cut
this is very good value.
Trae Young will show off his abilities Saturday night against a newly emerged powerhouse Denver Nuggets. Both teams coming off losses last night. Atlanta’s continued a streak of 3 and Denver’s snapped a 7 game win streak, I’m looking at the total here. Paul Millsap was hurt last night in Charlotte; Denver has efficient O and Suffocating D. I’m thinking they slow it down on O and try to take Young out of the game on D. These two teams combined are 0-6 Ov/Un on No rest. I think well see a lack of Offense here as Denver shot very poorly last night and may be fatigued closing out their Road trip & missing a key piece. Saturday free play: Nuggets/Hawks under 224
BYU is a much better team since getting Nick Emery back from suspension last week and this is not factored into the line. This kid will be playing with chip on his shoulder Utah has only beaten some bad to middle of the road type teams. Lay the -4
Buffalo over 147
The Bulls themselves average 87 points per game and play very fast. The Bonnies do not have the defense to stop this very fast team but should score enough to keep up with them averaging 79 points per game at home. Over 147
Michigan under 138
Michigan has the best defense in the league and they play South Carolina at home. They also play one of the the slowest paces in the league at 65.9 possessions per game. They will control the pace at home. The Gamecocks lost starting forward Justin Minaya 2 weeks ago to a knee. Under 138
