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Podcast 694 – 30 – 25 – The 2025 NFL Mock Draft – Best Bets – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev goes solo to discuss the 2025 NFL draft!   Last season, we crushed the draft and we hope to again this season.  Kiev goes over his mock draft where he discusses what he thinks teams “SHOULD” do and what he thinks that teams “WILL” do.  We have plenty of Free Plays!   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

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Tuesday Free Play Video:

ATLANTA, GA - FEBRUARY 29: Trae Young #11 of the Atlanta Hawks controls the ball during the second half of an NBA game against the Portland Trail Blazers at State Farm Arena on February 29, 2020 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

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3 Free Selections:
NBA: Hawks/Magic
MLB: Angels/Rangers
NHL: VGK/Flames

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2025 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings – NFL Draft Best Bet – Sports Betting

The highly anticipated 2025 draft class is almost upon us, bringing with it an deep lineup of quarterbacks who hold the potential to become franchise players in the near future. Once again, I’ve conducted a thorough analysis into the top prospects, presenting my rankings of the top 15 quarterbacks and determining which ones I believe are draft-worthy.  Unlike last year, there is not as much of a gap between the top to the bottom prospects.

Last year, I was more with the consensus in ranking Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels first and second.   I disagreed with those who thought that Bo Nix was a bust candidate as I had him ranked 4th behind Michael Penix.   That worked out well.  Were I was wrong was putting Sam Hartman ahead of Drake Maye, but the jury is still out on JJ McCarthy who I ranked 7th.   This year, I find myself disagreeing  with the consensus at the top of the rankings.   This quarterback class is deep and value can be found from waiting.  Let’s explore my insights, best bets, and how everything stacks up for this year’s class.

  1.  Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: HT: 6-foot-2 | WT: 212 pounds | 40YD: 4.68

I honestly do not understand how Shedeur fell below Cam Ward in the QB rankings. Last year, Shedeur had the 2nd-best pass EPA in college football, with low-leverage plays downweighed. He was 4th in total passing yards and had an impressive 37/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Sanders led the nation in completion percentage at 74%, which is astonishing considering his average of 8.7 yards per attempt.

Was there talent on Colorado’s team? Yes, absolutely, but the talent didn’t compare to what some SEC and BIG 10 teams provided for their quarterbacks. Colorado had a brand-new offensive line for the 2024 season, creating a lot of chaos—yet Sanders still pulled through.

Don’t get me wrong; Shedeur had his faults, such as holding onto the ball far too long, a habit he must change for the NFL. However, he’s not alone in this category, as plenty of college quarterbacks struggle to make this adjustment. Sanders ranked 2nd in adjusted completion percentage, a PFF stat showing his accuracy on all throws. Another valuable PFF stat, turnover-worthy plays, placed him 4th lowest.

The most compelling reason Sanders should be the top QB prospect is his consistency. In a class with no clear standouts, he has the highest floor out of all his competition. Being the son of a superstar like Deion Sanders has also meant operating under immense pressure, which he’s handled exceptionally well. Additionally, I don’t think Deion will allow him to fail in the NFL, making him a safer choice over other quarterbacks in this class.

2. Will Howard, Ohio State: HT: 6-foot-4 | WT: 235 pounds | 40YD: 4.85

Sleeper Alert

I normally don’t love putting a player this high who has worked with the best talent in college football, but this kid shone even during his time at Kansas State. Will has the quick thinking and advanced understanding of the game necessary for the NFL. His performances during the four college football playoff games he played were flawless.

Howard possesses the size to see clearly over the offensive line and knows when to take off running with the football. He ranked 2nd in completion percentage at 73%, with an impressive 9.5 yards per attempt. His clutch performances in crucial moments were pivotal for his team. The biggest knock on him remains some mechanical flaws and timing issues.

3. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss: HT: 6-foot-2 | WT: 225 pounds | 40YD: 4.85

Jaxson Dart is a solid prospect who thrived in a quarterback-friendly system under Lane Kiffen. One thing that can’t be said about Dart is that he didn’t put up elite numbers—he ranked 4th in QBR, 5th in pass EPA, 3rd in passing yards, and threw only six interceptions last season.

His main issues include arm strength and lack of mobility. Dart has a quick release and throws with anticipation, which are crucial skills for the NFL. He can also take a hit. However, he needs to improve his footwork and progressions through reads. There are concerns about his ability to perform in end-of-game situations, where he needed to be more clutch.

Overall, Dart is a solid quarterback prospect, but teams may struggle to distinguish him from others in this draft.

Best Bet:  Jackson Dart draft position over 24.5 +150 – .5 stars

4. Cam Ward, Miami: HT: 6-foot-2 | WT: 223 pounds | 40YD: 4.87

Bust Alert

Cam Ward is the consensus number one overall pick in this year’s draft, but I have significant reservations.

First, the positives: Cam’s numbers were undeniably elite—1st in QBR, 1st in pass EPA, 1st in touchdowns, and 2nd in total pass yards. He has excellent pocket presence and has shown up clutch in high-pressure games throughout the 2024 season.

Now the concerns: Cam Ward had one of the easiest schedules in Power Four college football, and his team had the best talent money could buy. His 40YD time of 4.87 seconds at 6-foot-2 isn’t impressive, and he benefitted greatly from the ACC’s best offensive line, avoiding much of the trouble lesser quarterbacks face.

Cam ranks 20th in adjusted completion percentage—not bad, but not elite. Ball security is also a concern, with eight fumbles in 2024 despite improved pocket awareness. Sometimes, Cam relies too heavily on arm talent, throwing off his back foot rather than resetting when the pocket gets muddy, which could lead to more interceptions at the next level.

While Ward has good potential, I don’t see him as a top-three quarterback in this year’s draft class. Based on his draft position, he has the biggest bust potential among this year’s quarterbacks.

5. Kyle McCord, Syracuse: HT: 6-foot-3 | WT: 220 pounds | 40YD: 4.95

Sleeper Alert

Kyle McCord had plenty of motivation after the Buckeyes replaced him with Will Howard, who led them to a national championship. Despite this, Kyle’s numbers were extraordinary. He ranked 1st in passing yards and 2nd in pass EPA, though Syracuse had the most pass attempts as a team last season.

McCord is a risk-taking pocket passer who was clutch in many of his games, helping the Orange achieve 10 wins last season. While the ACC competition wasn’t exceptional, Syracuse had notable wins over Miami, Georgia Tech, and UNLV. McCord’s potential makes him a candidate to develop into a special player.

6. Riley Leonard, Notre Dame: HT: 6-foot-4 | WT: 216 pounds | 40YD: 4.52

Sleeper Alert

Notre Dame leaned heavily on the run game, but that doesn’t mean Riley Leonard can’t succeed as an NFL quarterback. After making Duke football relevant, he transferred to Notre Dame and led them to the title game.

Leonard ranked 14th in QBR with a solid 66.7% completion percentage. While he gained 906 rushing yards, his ability to win games with his legs aligns with today’s NFL trend of effective running quarterbacks. Leonard’s clutch performances might be the key to winning NFL games.

7. Quinn Ewers, Texas: HT: 6-foot-2 | WT: 210 pounds | 40YD: 4.74

Bust Alert

Few have hurt their draft stock as much as Quinn Ewers did in the playoffs. Despite the abundance of talent at Texas, Ewers only ranked 69th in pass EPA and 109th in passer rating on PFF.

Ewers has won games but is plagued by inconsistency. Fumbles and poor clutch performances highlight his weaknesses. Unfortunately, there’s nothing standout about Ewers as a prospect, making him average in this draft class.

8. Tyler Shough, Louisville: HT: 6-foot-5 | WT: 225 pounds | 40YD: 4.63

Sleeper Alert

Tyler Shough moved frequently during his college career but displayed impressive throws along the way. He achieved the 5th-ranked passer rating on PFF, won big games for Louisville, and had potential to contend for the ACC championship.

Shough possesses the size, speed, and arm strength that could translate well to the NFL. At 25 years old, his maturity could work in his favor. He represents a value pick in later rounds.

9. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon: HT: 6-foot-0 | WT: 200 pounds | 40YD: 4.83

If size doesn’t matter, speed becomes crucial—unfortunately for Gabriel, he lacks both. While he posted excellent numbers for Oregon, ranking 2nd in QBR and 3rd in pass EPA, he benefitted from great coaching and a relatively easy schedule.

Though Gabriel could find some success, his chances of thriving in the NFL are slim.

10. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana: HT: 6-foot-5 | WT: 223 pounds | 40YD: 4.74

Indiana’s success was more a testament to Coach Curt Cignetti than to Kurtis Rourke. The Hoosiers had the easiest schedule of the twelve playoff teams.

On the plus side, Rourke is big, strong, and adept at finding open receivers. He achieved a 69.5% completion percentage at 9.5 yards per attempt. NFL teams may take a late-round chance on him or consider him as a potential walk-on. Could he develop into a Ben Roethlisberger-type player? It’s hard to say if his skillset will translate to the NFL.

11. Jalen Milroe, Alabama: HT: 6-foot-2 | WT: 225 pounds | 40YD: 4.40

Remember when I said that Anthony Richardson is a poor man’s Cam Newton? Well, Jalen Milroe might just be a poor man’s Anthony Richardson.

12. Brady Cook, Missouri: HT: 6-foot-2 | WT: 215 pounds | 40YD: 4.59

Brady measures 6-foot-2 wearing Robert De Niro shoes. Though his 2023 season was better, the kid has heart—it’s just not NFL-sized.

13. Graham Mertz, Florida: HT: 6-foot-3 | WT: 216 pounds | 40YD: 4.95

Remember when Pat Mahomes tweeted about Graham after he beat Illinois? Ever since, things have gone downhill for Mertz.

14. Garrett Green, West Virginia: HT: 5-foot-11 | WT: 201 pounds | 40YD: 4.50

Garrett Green is the best quarterback in the draft that you’ve never heard of. Unfortunately, after the draft, you still won’t have heard of him.

15. DJ Uiagalelei, Florida State: HT: 6-foot-4 | WT: 252 pounds | 40YD: 4.87

The best part of DJ Uiagalelei’s draft profile is knowing this might be the last time I have to say his name.

Monday Free Play Video:

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3 Free Selections:
MLB: Red Sox/Rays
MLB: Braves/Blue Jays
NHL: Kings/Oilers

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Sunday Free Play Video:

CLEVELAND, OHIO - NOVEMBER 18: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors celebrates during the second half against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on November 18, 2021 in Cleveland, Ohio. The Warriors defeated the Cavaliers 104-89. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

Premium Selections over at http://oddsbreakers.com

3 Free Selections:
NBA: Clippers/Warriors
MLB: Rangers/Mariners
NHL: Oilers/Jets

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Saturday Free Play Video:

Premium Selections over at http://oddsbreakers.com

3 Free Selections:
MLB: Cubs/Dodgers
NHL: Wild/Canucks
NHL: Nas/VGK

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UFC 314 Free Play – Sports Betting

Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes +140

This should be an exciting fight between two big contenders vying for title contention. The favorite, Nikita Krylov, is a strong Ukrainian who hasn’t been in the octagon for over two years. He is skilled both on the feet and on the floor, with notable wins against Ryan Spann and Volkan Oezdemir. Dominick Reyes, on the other hand, has been a frustrating fighter for MMA fans to figure out. He was on a tear until he lost a close fight to the GOAT, Jon Jones. After that, he suffered strange losses, getting knocked out in three consecutive fights against Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and, surprisingly, Ryan Spann. Reyes took some time off and came back strong with two knockouts, defeating Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith.

 

Handicap:

In my opinion, this fight should be a straight pick-’em. While Krylov is a badass, Reyes should have the striking advantage, landing 5.64 significant strikes per round compared to Krylov’s 4.38. I give Nikita the edge on the ground, but the big question is whether he can take Reyes down. Dominick has an impressive takedown defense rate of 82%. He has never been submitted and has secured a few submissions himself.

I’m also concerned about ring rust for Krylov, given his two-year absence from competitive fighting. Meanwhile, Reyes has fought in two events over the past year. My recommendation: grab the underdog.

Dominick Reyes +140. 1-star 

 

Bonus Play:

Jean Silva to win by KO/TKO (+100) – 1 star

Jean is red-hot, as is his team, The Fighting Nerds. While Bryce Mitchell is an excellent wrestler, that’s essentially his only strength. Wrestling works against lower-tier competition, but it won’t hold up against Silva, who is a well-rounded fighter. Being Brazilian, Silva is no stranger to grappling and has a few submission wins under his belt.

Mitchell’s chin has been exposed before, notably when Josh Emmett dominated him in December 2023. Silva will likely remain patient, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Mitchell walks into a knee to the chin.

If you want more of our best plays, see below:

You can bet these lines right here at MyBookie!   https://www.theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie


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Friday Free Play Video:

The Memphis Grizzlies pictured together.
ORLANDO, FL - AUGUST 11: Grayson Allen #3 high-fives Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies during the game on August 11, 2020 at the AdventHealth Arena in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2020 NBAE (Photo by Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images)

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NBA: Grizzlies/Nuggets
MLB: Nats/Marlins
NHL: Habs/Sens

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Podcast 693 – 29 – 25 – UFC 314 with Lou Finocchiaro – NFL Draft QB Rankings – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Lou Finocchiaro @GameLou from the Sneak Teep podcast and @VSINLIVE is back to break down a huge UFC 314 event!  First, Kiev talks NFL draft!   We rank the top 15 quarterback prospects in the draft as well as a Best Bet!   We hit our best bet last year as well!  Next, Lou comes on and the guys get right into UFC 314!  We talk undercard, main event and sleepers with some Free Plays!   Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie/ Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

Use Promo Code Baseball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY Baseball OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2025

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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

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Thursday Free Play Video:

Anthony Edwards throwing it down for a slam dunk.

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3 Free Selections:
NBA: Wolves/Grizzlies
MLB: Jays/Red Sox
NHL: Canes/Caps

Go check out @theoddsbreakers – Tons of free content!!