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2025 ISCO Championship Preview & Picks

The PGA Tour rolls into Louisville this week for the 2025 ISCO Championship, marking the tournament’s debut at the storied Hurstbourne Country Club. Formerly known as the Barbasol Championship, this alternate-field event has found a new home and identity while continuing to offer valuable FedExCup points and a coveted spot in the PGA Championship. While the winner won’t earn an invite to The Masters, the stakes remain high for a field filled with rising stars, seasoned veterans, and international talent looking to capitalize in a week without the game’s biggest names. With a classic, tree-lined layout and small, tricky greens, Hurstbourne is set to deliver a strategic and unpredictable challenge. Let’s break down the course, key stats, and top betting targets for this week’s ISCO Championship.

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: July 10th – July 13th, 2025
  • Location: Louisville, Kentucky, United States
  • Course: Hurstbourne Country Club (Championship Course)
  • Course Type: Parkland
  • Par: 70 (4x 3’s / 12x 4’s / 2x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,056 Yards
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
  • Greens: A1/A4 bentgrass .110”
  • Fairways: Meyer zoysiagrass .500”
  • Rough: Bluegrass / fescue 4-6”
  • Bunkers: 68
  • Water Hazard(s): 7 (In-Play on 6 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 4,750 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 11.0 ft.
  • Purse/ Winner: $4,000,000 /$720,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 300
  • Field: 156 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Playoff Format: Sudden Death (18, 18, 17, 18, 17, 18…)

Social Media:

Course Information:

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: Chick Adams (1966)
  • Renovations: Keith Foster (2023 and 2024)

Comparable Location (Louisville, Kentucky):

  • Keene Trace Golf Club (Champions Course) – Lexington, Kentucky – Barbasol Championship (2018-2024)
  • Valhalla Golf Club – Lexington, Kentucky – PGA Championship (2024, 2014, 2000, 1996)

Comparable Yardage (7,056 Yards):

  • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – 7,041 Yards – ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP
  • Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 7,041 Yards – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • Sea Island Golf Club (Plantation Course) – 7,060 Yards – The RSM Classic

Comparable Greens (A1/A4 bentgrass .110”):

  • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course) – Bentgrass .100” – Farmers Insurance Open
  • Augusta National Golf Club – Bentgrass .125” – Masters Tournament
  • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
  • Colonial Country Club – A-4 bentgrass .100” – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
  • TPC Deere Run – L-93 bentgrass .100” – John Deere Classic
  • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open
  • TPC Summerlin – Dominator bentgrass .125″ – Shriners Children’s Open
  • Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club – Bentgrass – ZOZO Championship

Comparable Average Green Size (4,750 sq. ft.):

  • PGA WEST (Pete Dye Stadium Course) – 5,000 sq. ft. – The American Express
  • Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course) – 5,000 sq. ft. – Farmers Insurance Open
  • Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 5,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – 5,000 sq. ft. – the Memorial Tournament
  • TPC River Highlands – 5,000 sq. ft. – Travelers Championship

TV Information (all times ET):

  • Round 1: Thursday, July 10th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 2:00 AM – 11:00 AM
    • Golf Channel – 11:00 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Round 2: Friday, July 11th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 2:00 AM – 11:00 AM
    • Golf Channel – 11:00 AM – 2:00 PM
  • Round 3: Saturday, July 12th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 4:15 AM – 10:00 AM
    • Golf Channel – 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM
    • CBS – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM
  • Round 4: Sunday, July 13th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 4:15 AM – 10:00 AM
    • Golf Channel – 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM
    • CBS – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

The ISCO Championship is a professional golf tournament held in Kentucky on the PGA Tour. Originally introduced in 2015 as the Barbasol Championship, it was created as an alternate event to the Scottish Open in July. The tournament initially took place in Alabama, with the first three editions held at the Grand National course of the Robert Trent Jones Golf Trail in Opelika, marking the PGA Tour’s return to Alabama for the first time since the 1990 PGA Championship.

In 2018, the event relocated to Keene Trace Golf Club in Nicholasville, Kentucky, just south of Lexington. This move made history, as it marked the first regular PGA Tour event held in Kentucky in 59 years, dating back to the 1959 Kentucky Derby Open. While Valhalla Golf Club near Louisville has hosted several PGA Championships (1996, 2000, 2014, and 2024), the ISCO Championship represents the state’s only recurring PGA Tour stop. Starting in 2025, the tournament is set to move again, this time to Hurstbourne Country Club in Louisville.

As an alternate field event, the ISCO Championship does not offer the winner an automatic invitation to The Masters. However, the champion still earns a two-year PGA Tour exemption and a berth in the next PGA Championship. In August 2021, it was announced that beginning in 2022, the tournament would be co-sanctioned with the European Tour, making it a more internationally significant event. Notably, it also provides the top non-exempt finisher with a spot in The Open Championship, adding further incentive for up-and-coming players.

Despite being held the same week as the Scottish Open, the ISCO Championship has carved out a valuable niche. It offers a crucial opportunity for lesser-known or developing players to secure status, earn FedEx Cup points, and break through on the PGA Tour.

Previous Tournament Venues:

DurationCourseLocation:
2025Hurstbourne Country Club
(Championship Course)
Louisville, Kentucky
2018-2024Keene Trace Golf ClubLexington, Kentucky
2015-2017RTJ Trail (Grand National)Opelika, Alabama

Previous Tournament Names:

DurationTournament Name
2024-PresentISCO Championship
2015-2023Barbasol Championship

Tournament Records:

  • 72-Hole Record:
    • 262, Jim Herman (2019)

  • 18-Hole Record:
    • 61, Kelly Kraft (Round 3, 2019), Pierceson Coody (Round 1, 2024)

Course Guide/ Scorecard:

The Championship Course at Hurstbourne Country Club, originally designed by Chick Adams in 1966, offers a classic yet challenging Par 70 layout. It features four Par 3s, twelve Par 4s, and two Par 5s. In recent years, acclaimed architect Keith Foster led a thoughtful renovation aimed at modernizing the course while preserving its traditional character. Foster’s updates focused on re-contouring green complexes, repositioning bunkers for strategic relevance, and refining tee box angles to enhance shot values.

At 7,056 yards, Hurstbourne plays slightly shorter than the average PGA Tour venue, but don’t let the yardage fool you—this course demands precision. Fairways are on the tighter side, averaging 25 to 30 yards in width, placing a premium on driving accuracy. The greens are particularly small by Tour standards, averaging just 4,750 square feet, which puts added pressure on approach shots and short-game execution. Players will also have to navigate 68 bunkers, a number that sits near the Tour average, though many are strategically placed to guard key landing zones and green edges.

For the ISCO Championship, the traditional front and back nines are flipped, changing the rhythm of the round and adding extra intrigue to how the course finishes. With a mix of classic design and recent enhancements, Hurstbourne offers a compelling test for players and an exciting viewing experience for fans.

The four Par 3s range from 162 to 233 yards.

Hole 6 | Par 3 | 233 Yards

This long par 3 has a green that slopes slightly from front to back. Tee shots that barely carry the bunker to the right of the green will kick toward the center of the green. A swale in the approach area may kick short tee shots onto the green. Shots that fly wayward to the left may find the high grass that is marked as a hazard. 

Hole 9 | Par 3 | 162 Yards

This signature hole is a par 3 heading toward the classic clubhouse. An elevated tee and green requires players to hit over the valley off the tee. Three cavernous bunkers make hitting the green difficult. 

Hole 13 | Par 3 | 186 Yards

This par 3 on the course calls for a mid- to long-iron approach to a long but narrow green. Deep bunkers on both sides to the front of the green require shots to carry to the green or come through a narrow approach area. 

Hole 17 | Par 3 | 216 Yards

Numerous deep bunkers surround the sloping green placing a premium on good approach shots into this green. An approach area short and right of the green leaves an uphill chip shot onto the green. Shots over the green may funnel into a collection area leaving a difficult up-and-down save. 

The ten Par 4s largely fall within the 350 to 400-yard range. No. 8 is the shortest at 344 yards, while No. 1 is the longest at 515 yards.

Hole 1 | Par 4 | 515 Yards

Players start from an elevated tee that requires a carry over a crossing creek. A collection of bunkers provides a good aiming point from the tee but is reachable for long hitters. The creek continues along the right side of the fairway, crossing in front of the green. Approach shots may be played short and right of the green.

Hole 5 | Par 4 | 430 Yards

This par 4 gives players two options from the tee. Shorter tee shots will require a long second shot over a low area to an elevated green. Longer tee shots may try to funnel to the low area leaving a shorter second shot, but those shots must avoid the creek that crosses in the low area. Approach shots to the right of the green fall off dramatically, requiring accuracy into the green. 

Hole 14 | Par 4 | 438 Yards

The fourteenth hole is a par 4 with a sharp dogleg to the left. Tee shots with a high, long draw may carry the trees on the left resulting in a short second shot to the green. Tee shots to the corner of the dogleg will leave a mid- to short-iron approach shot. Three bunkers border the right side of the green, and shots over the green may end up in the greenside pond. 

Hole 18 | Par 4 | 481 Yards

The final hole is a par 5 for the members, but a par 4 this week, that doglegs to the left. Long hitters may attempt to carry the collection of bunkers on the left-hand side, leaving a shorter approach shot into the green. A large tree to the left, 100 yards short of the green, will block approach shots that come from too far left. The elevated and relatively small green is surrounded by deep bunkers that must be avoided. 

There are only two Par 5s—No. 7 and No. 10.

Hole 7 | Par 5 | 555 Yards

This par 5 runs along the right-hand side of the main entry road. Starting with a spectacular view from the teebox, a creek runs along the entire right-hand side of the fairway. Large trees line the entry road along the left-hand side. Approach shots must avoid the large bunkers to the left and the creek on the right. This narrow green slopes from left to right with a swale in the middle portion of the green. 

Hole 10 | Par 5 | 565 Yards

This is a par 5 with a slight dogleg to the left. Fairway bunkers border both sides of the fairway off the tee, and another bunker guards the right side of the fairway on the approach. Deep bunkers surround the green with a pond to the left of the green. 

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 9

Key Statistics:

The ISCO Championship takes place at Hurstbourne Country Club (Championship Course). Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

  • Accuracy will outweigh distance this week. With fairways averaging just 25–30 yards in width and thick Kentucky bluegrass/fescue rough measuring 4–6 inches, keeping the ball in play is essential. Players who gain strokes off the tee through both precision and distance will have a clear edge.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Cameron Champ
      • Michael Thorbjornsen
      • Joseph Bramlett
      • MJ Daffue
      • Luke List
      • Thomas Rosenmueller
      • Rico Hoey
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • William Mouw
      • Ricardo Gouveia
      • Emiliano Grillo

Strokes Gained: Approach

  • Approach play remains the most predictive stat on Tour, and that holds true at Hurstbourne. With green complexes averaging just 4,750 sq. ft.—among the smallest on Tour—hitting your spots on second shots is a must to generate birdie looks and avoid scrambling.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Henrik Norlander
      • Emiliano Grillo
      • John Pak
      • Scott Piercy
      • Kevin Roy
      • Jayden Schaper
      • Steven Fisk
      • McClure Meissner
      • Jackson Suber
      • Shubhankar Sharma

Strokes Gained: Around the Green

  • Given the small putting surfaces, missed greens are inevitable—even for the best ball-strikers. Players with a reliable short game and strong touch from the bluegrass/fescue rough around the greens will be able to save crucial pars and keep momentum going.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Aaron Baddeley
      • Satoshi Kodaira
      • Seung-yul Noh
      • Beau Hossler
      • Chan Kim
      • Takumi Kanaya
      • Chandler Phillips
      • Tom Vaillant
      • Kevin Kisner
      • Patton Kizzire

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

  • The greens at Hurstbourne are A1/A4 bentgrass mown to .110”, offering a smooth, fast surface that rewards confident putters. Bentgrass specialists should see a slight edge here, particularly those who consistently convert from mid-range distances.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Vincent Whaley
      • Ben Silverman
      • Cristobal Del Solar
      • Ben Crane
      • Justin Lower
      • Kevin Kisner
      • Taylor Montgomery
      • Cameron Champ
      • Kevin Chappell
      • Taylor Dickson

Fairways Gained

  • Although the course measures just over 7,000 yards—short by Tour standards—the narrow landing areas and penal rough put a premium on finding fairways. This stat plays a bigger role than usual in separating those who can play aggressively from the rest of the field.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Ryan Armour
      • Paul Peterson
      • Satoshi Kodaira
      • Emiliano Grillo
      • Ben Kohles
      • Fabrizio Zanotti
      • Carson Young
      • Takumi Kanaya
      • Rico Hoey
      • Brian Stuard

Par 3 Scoring

  • Hurstbourne features four Par 3s ranging from 162 to 233 yards, demanding solid mid- to long-iron play and precision.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Chandler Phillips
      • Cameron Champ
      • Carson Young
      • Ben Martin
      • Scott Jamieson
      • Chris Stroud
      • Seung-yul Noh
      • Julien Brun
      • Steven Fisk
      • Scott Piercy

Par 4 Scoring

  • The layout includes twelve Par 4s—more than a typical Tour setup. With lengths spanning from 344 to 515 yards and a large concentration in the 350–400 yard range, players will need a balanced game and flexibility in strategy across these holes. Overall Par 4 scoring is more relevant than isolating specific ranges due to the wide variation in hole design.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Kevin Roy
      • Mark Hubbard
      • Jason Scrivener
      • Emiliano Grillo
      • Ricardo Gouveia
      • Henrik Norlander
      • Andrew Wilson
      • Ricky Castillo
      • Thomas Aiken
      • Seung-yul Noh

Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards

  • Both of the Par 5s fall in the 550–600 yard range. While reachable for some, they’ll demand strong ball-striking and smart course management to produce scoring opportunities without bringing big numbers into play.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Kevin Chappell
      • Michael Thorbjornsen
      • Bill Haas
      • Vincent Whaley
      • Cameron Champ
      • Hayden Springer
      • Alexander Knappe
      • Alexander Levy
      • Jackson Koivun
      • Yechun Yuan

Birdies or Better Gained

  • Despite being a new venue on the PGA Tour, all signs point to Hurstbourne yielding plenty of scoring chances for players in form. Birdies—or even eagles—will be required in bunches to contend, especially with a softer alternate-field setup.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Michael Thorbjornsen
      • Hayden Springer
      • Taylor Montgomery
      • Chandler Phillips
      • Mark Hubbard
      • Shubhankar Sharma
      • Joseph Bramlett
      • Vincent Whaley
      • Gordon Sargent
      • Emiliano Grillo

Bogey Avoidance

  • Hurstbourne’s tight fairways, thick rough, and small, undulating greens present plenty of opportunities for trouble. With just two Par 5s and twelve Par 4s—many with awkward distances and forced layups—players will need to grind out pars and limit mistakes.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Seung-yul Noh
      • Ricky Castillo
      • Mark Hubbard
      • Steven Fisk
      • Vincent Whaley
      • Cameron Champ
      • Jayden Schaper
      • Brice Garnett
      • Joseph Bramlett
      • Chandler Phillips

Proximity Gained: 125-175 Yards

  • A large number of wedge and short-iron approaches are expected this week due to the abundance of sub-400-yard Par 4s. Accuracy into small greens will be key, and this stat pinpoints players who are generating tight looks from one of the most common distances they’ll face.
    • Leaders in Proximity Gained: 125-150 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Chandler Phillips
      • Kyle Stanley
      • Jason Dufner
      • Chez Reavie
      • Aaron Baddeley
      • Jim Herman
      • Seamus Power
      • McClure Meissner
      • Greyson Sigg
      • Joost Luiten
    • Leaders in Proximity Gained: 150-175 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Richie Ramsay
      • William McGirt
      • Cameron Champ
      • Brandon Wu
      • Harrison Endycott
      • Kyle Stanley
      • Jason Dufner
      • Josh Teater
      • Maximilian Kieffer
      • Sam Ryder

Strokes Gained Total: Short Course (Less than 7,200 Yards)

  • While Hurstbourne Country Club may not be long by PGA Tour standards, measuring just 7,056 yards, that doesn’t mean it’s easy. Short courses present a unique set of challenges. Rather than relying on length, they often require precision off the tee, creative shot shaping, dialed-in wedge play, and consistent putting on tricky greens.
  • This stat helps highlight players who repeatedly outperform the field on similar setups—those who might not pop on paper at a bomber’s track but consistently climb leaderboards on more strategic courses.
  • Expect the leaderboard at Hurstbourne to feature a blend of short-game tacticians, fairway finders, and elite approach players who have proven themselves on these types of venues.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Chandler Phillips
      • Kevin Roy
      • Rico Hoey
      • Mark Hubbard
      • Paul Peterson
      • Frankie Capan
      • Joost Luiten
      • Justin Lower
      • Seamus Power

The Field:

The 2025 ISCO Championship will feature a field of 156 players.

Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:

  • 126-150 on FedExCup Fall Points List
  • Beyond 150 on Prior Seasons FEC Playoffs & Eligibility Points List
  • Career Money Exemption
  • DP World Tour / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category – Reordered
  • DP World Tour Ranking
  • Non-Exempt, Major Medical Extension
  • Open Qualifying
  • Past Champion of Respective Event
  • PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year
  • PGA TOUR University Accelerated – Current Season
  • Reorder Category – Cat. 37 thru 44
  • Sponsors Exemptions – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt
  • Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted
  • Top 10 and Ties from the Previous Event
  • Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
  • Top 30 on the FedExCup Playoffs & Eligibility Points List
  • Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
  • Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons

Previous Winners in the Field (Event):

  • Seamus Power (2021), Jim Herman (2019), Troy Merritt (2018), Aaron Baddeley (2016), Scott Piercy (2015)

Debutants in the Field:

  • Adam Hadwin, Andreas Halvorsen, Angel Ayora, Bjorn Akesson, Braden Thornberry, Brandon Robinson Thompson, Brendon Doyle, Callum Shinkwin, Chandler Phillips, Conor Purcell, Cristobal Del Solar, Davis Bryant, Frankie Capan III, Gordon Sargent, Hamish Brown, J.B. Holmes, Jack Senior, Jackson Koivun, Jackson Suber, Jannik De Bruyn, Jeremy Paul, Jimmy Walker, Joel Moscatel, Kaito Onishi, Kazuma Kobori, Kevin Velo, Marcus Armitage, Marcus Byrd, Mason Andersen, Matthew Baldwin, Matthew Riedel, Maximilian Kieffer, Miles Russell, Noah Goodwin, Paul Peterson, Quade Cummins, Ricky Castillo, Robin Williams, Ryan van Velzen, Shubhankar Sharma, Steven Fisk, Takumi Kanaya, Taylor Dickson, Taylor Montgomery, Thomas Rosenmueller, Tim Widing, Wenyi Ding, Will Chandler, William Mouw, Zihao Jin.

Exemptions:

  • Jackson Koivun (Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted)
  • Miles Russell (Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted)
  • Josh Teater (Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted)
  • Marcus Byrd (Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted)
  • Brendon Doyle (Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted)
  • Stephen Stallings Jr. (Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted)
  • JB Holmes (Sponsors Exemptions – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt)
  • Jeff Overton (Sponsors Exemptions – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt)
  • Kevin Kisner (Career Money Exemption)

Notable Withdraws/ Changes:

  • Camilo Villegas WD / Richy Werenski IN
  • Harrison Endycott WD / Sean O’Hair IN
  • Henrik Norlander WD / Dylan Wu IN under an exempt PGA TOUR category
  • Richy Werenski WD / Fabian Gomez IN
  • Jimmy Walker WD (restricted exemption) / Jeff Overton IN (restricted exemption)
  • DPWT update: Ryan Van Velzen WD / Jacob Skov Olesen IN

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event:

GolferOddsLast 5 Finishes on the PGA TOUR
(Recent -> Past)
Last 5 Finishes at the ISCO Championship
(Recent -> Past)
Michael Thorbjornsen+1600T21-T4-T41-T54-T33MC
Emiliano Grillo+18002-T73-T19-T24-T16T10
Kevin Roy+1800T3-T8-T18-T46-T54MC
Jackson Koivun+2200T11-MC-T48-T56–
Rico Hoey+2200T11-MC-T36-T66-MCT2
Odds via DraftKings

Previous Winners Scores and Prices:

  • 2024: Harry Hall (-22) – Keene Trace Golf Club
    • Price: 60-1

  • 2023: Vincent Norrman (-22) – Keene Trace Golf Club
    • Price: 28-1

  • 2022: Trey Mullinax (-25) – Keene Trace Golf Club
    • Price: 150-1

  • 2021: Séamus Power (-21) – Keene Trace Golf Club
    • Price: 20-1

    Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

    • 2024: Harry Hall
      • T12 – John Deere Classic (PGA)
      • T31 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
      • T42 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
      • MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
      • T40 – Myrtle Beach Classic (PGA)
    • 2023: Vincent Norrman
      • T24 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
      • MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
      • MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
      • MC – RBC Candian Open (PGA)
      • T48 – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)

    • 2022: Trey Mullinax
      • MC – John Deere Classic (PGA)
      • MC – Travelers Championship (PGA)
      • 69 – RBC Candian Open (PGA)
      • MC – Charles Schwab Challenge (PGA)
      • T32 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)

    • 2021: Séamus Power
      • T8 – John Deere Classic (PGA)
      • T8 – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
      • T19 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
      • T19 – Palmetto Championship (PGA)
      • T9 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)

    Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

    2024: Harry Hall

    • Tournament Debut

    2023: Vincent Norrman

    • Tournament Debut

    2022: Trey Mullinax

    Barbasol ChampionshipBarbasol Championship
    Keene Trace Golf ClubRTJ Trail (Grand National)
    20192017
    MCT55

    2021: Séamus Power

    Barbasol ChampionshipBarbasol ChampionshipBarbasol Championship
    Keene Trace Golf ClubKeene Trace Golf ClubRTJ Trail (Grand National)
    201920182017
    T53T34T18

    Tournament Winner:

    Kevin Roy (+2000) – FanDuel

    Kevin Roy has been steadily trending toward a breakthrough victory over the past three weeks, with strong finishes including T18 at the RBC Canadian Open, T8 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and T3 at the John Deere Classic. While those tournaments featured moderately competitive fields, this week’s event has a generally weaker lineup, which plays to Roy’s advantage. He has shown solid form in similar fields this season, posting T6 at the Puerto Rico Open and T17 at the Mexico Open. Roy’s accuracy off the tee complements his excellent approach play, and if his putting stays consistent, he looks well-positioned to claim his first PGA TOUR win.

    Rico Hoey (+2200) – DraftKings

    Rico Hoey enters this event on the back of a T11 finish at the John Deere Classic, where putting let him down. He has performed well in weaker field events this season, with notable finishes such as T7 at the Myrtle Beach Classic and T12 at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Last year, Hoey was the runner-up at this event when it was held at Keene Trace Golf Club. Everything seems to be clicking for him except his putting, and if he can regain form on the greens—especially on a surface where he’s traditionally been stronger—this could be his week to break through.

    Cameron Champ (+2800) – DraftKings

    Cameron Champ has been in impressive form recently, stringing together three consecutive top-30 finishes, including a standout T9 at the RBC Canadian Open. Champ’s improved accuracy off the tee has been a key factor in his recent success, particularly given that he is one of the longest hitters on tour. His overall game looks solid, and he appears ready to contend for his first victory since 2021.

    Mark Hubbard (+2800) – FanDuel

    Mark Hubbard has demonstrated strong play in recent weeks, recording two top-12 finishes in additional PGA TOUR events this season. With the Hurstbourne Country Club’s small greens demanding precise iron play, Hubbard’s ability to dial in his irons will be crucial for contention. Even if his iron game isn’t flawless, his short game has been reliable, giving him a solid chance to compete for the title.

    Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

    2025 Genesis Scottish Open Preview & Picks

    The 2025 Genesis Scottish Open heads back to The Renaissance Club in East Lothian, Scotland, attracting a world-class field ready to take on one of the game’s most beautiful and demanding courses.

    With a rich history, evolving course setup, and standout contenders like defending champion Robert MacIntyre, this preview breaks down the key storylines, course insights, and top betting picks to watch as the action unfolds.

    Pre-Tournament Storylines:

    Robert MacIntyre Eyes History

    Robert MacIntyre returns to The Renaissance Club as the defending champion of the Genesis Scottish Open. His emotional 2024 victory on home soil marked the second win of his season and made him the first Scot to ever win this event. Now, MacIntyre has a chance to make even more history—no player has ever gone back-to-back at the Genesis Scottish Open. The local favorite will be looking to feed off the home crowd and etch his name further into the tournament’s legacy.

    Final Chance to Qualify for The Open

    The Genesis Scottish Open serves as the final stop in the Open Qualifying Series. On Sunday, the top three finishers not already exempt will earn a coveted spot in the field for the 152nd Open Championship at Royal Portrush. For many in the field, this is the last opportunity to punch their ticket to golf’s oldest major, raising the stakes even higher this week in East Lothian.

    Tournament Information:

    • Dates: July 10th – July 13th, 2025
    • Location: North Berwick, Scotland, United Kingdom
    • Course: The Renaissance Club
    • Course Type: Ocean Links
    • Par: 70 (5x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
    • Length: 7,282 Yards
    • Format: 72-hole stroke play
    • Greens: Fescue
    • Fairways: Fescue
    • Rough: Fescue 3″ – 5″
    • Bunkers: 83
    • Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
    • Average Green Size: 7,000 sq. ft.
    • Stimpmeter: 10.0 ft.
    • Purse/ Winner: $9,000,000/ $1,575,000
    • FedEx Cup Points: 500
    • Field: 156 Players
    • Cut: Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
    • Playoff Format: Sudden-death format, with playoff holes being 18 played repeatedly

    Social Media:

    Course Information:

    Course Architect:

    • Course Architect: Tom Doak (2008)
    • Renovations: N/A

    Comparable Courses:

    • St. Andrews (Old Course) – The 2022 Open Championship – RESULTS
    • Royal St. George’s – The 2021 Open Championship – RESULTS
    • Royal Portrush – The 2019 Open Championship – RESULTS
    • Royal Birkdale – The 2017 Open Championship – RESULTS

    Comparable Location (North Berwick, Scotland):

    • St. Andrews (Old Course) – St Andrews, Scotland – The 2022 Open

    Designer Link (Tom Doak (2008)):

    • Memorial Park Golf Course – Tom Doak Renovation (2019) – Cadence Bank Houston Open
    • St. George’s Golf and Country Club – Tom Doak Renovation (2014) – 2022 Canadian Open

    Comparable Yardage (7,282 Yards):

    • TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) – 7,261 Yards – WM Phoenix Open
    • TPC Deere Run – 7,289 Yards – John Deere Classic

    Comparable Greens (Fescue):

    • St. Andrews (Old Course) – Fescue / Brown top bentgrass / Poa annua 3.5mm (.138”) – The 2022 Open

    Comparable Average Green Size (7,000 sq. ft.):

    • Memorial Park Golf Course – 7,000 sq. ft. – Texas Children’s Houston Open
    • PGA National (The Champion) – 7,000 sq. ft. – Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches
    • Vidanta Vallarta – 7,000 sq. ft. – Mexico Open at Vidanta
    • Black Desert Resort – 7,000 sq. ft. – Black Desert Championship

    TV Information (all times ET):

    • Round 1: Thursday, July 10th, 2025
      • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 2:00 AM – 11:00 AM
      • Golf Channel – 11:00 AM – 2:00 PM
    • Round 2: Friday, July 11th, 2025
      • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 2:00 AM – 11:00 AM
      • Golf Channel – 11:00 AM – 2:00 PM
    • Round 3: Saturday, July 12th, 2025
      • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 4:15 AM – 10:00 AM
      • Golf Channel – 10:00 AM -12:00 PM
      • CBS – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM
    • Round 4: Sunday, July 13th, 2025
      • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 4:15 AM – 10:00 AM
      • Golf Channel – 10:00 AM -12:00 PM
      • CBS – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM

    Weather:

    Course/ Tournament History:

    The Scottish Open began in 1972 as the Sunbeam Electric Scottish Open, first played at Downfield Golf Club. The following year, the tournament moved to the Old Course at St Andrews. However, after the 1973 edition, the event disappeared from the schedule due to unresolved television rights, and it remained dormant from 1974 through 1985.

    In 1986, the tournament was revived as the Bell’s Scottish Open at Haggs Castle Golf Club. Just a year later, it shifted to Gleneagles, where it remained until 1994. The event was then held at Carnoustie for two years in 1995 and 1996, during which it officially adopted the name “Scottish Open.”

    From 1997 through 2010, the event found a long-term home at Loch Lomond, though it cycled through multiple title sponsors. In 2011, due to financial issues at Loch Lomond, the tournament moved to Castle Stuart Golf Links, which hosted it through 2013.

    Between 2014 and 2018, the Scottish Open rotated across a few different courses before settling at its current venue, The Renaissance Club, in 2019. A major milestone came in 2022, when the tournament became a co-sanctioned event between the PGA TOUR and the DP World Tour. Genesis also came on board as the title sponsor.

    The Renaissance Club, located in East Lothian, Scotland, is one of the newer additions to the world’s top golf venues. Opened in 2008 and designed by Tom Doak, the course quickly gained recognition for its coastal beauty and unique blend of traditional Scottish links features with modern architecture. Nestled between historic neighbors like Muirfield and North Berwick, The Renaissance Club has become a premier stop in the summer schedule, known for its challenging layout, impeccable conditioning, and striking views of the Firth of Forth.

    Previous Tournament Venues:

    DurationCourseLocation:
    2022-PresentThe Renaissance ClubNorth Berwick, Scotland

    Previous Tournament Names:

    DurationTournament Name
    2022-PresentGenesis Scottish Open

    Tournament Records:

    • 72-Hole Record (Event):
      • 262 – Bernd Wiesberger (2019), Robert MacIntyre (2024)
    • 18-Hole Record (Event):
      • 61 – Bernd Wiesberger (Round 2, 2019), Byeong Hun An (Round 1, 2023), Richard Mansell (final round, 2024)

    Course Guide/ Scorecard:

    Originally designed by Tom Doak in 2008, The Renaissance Club features a Par 70 layout with five Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and three Par 5s.

    In terms of length, The Renaissance Club sits right around the Tour average, measuring 7,282 yards. It ranks 18th out of 44 PGA TOUR courses in total yardage. Fairways are relatively narrow, ranking 16th in average width at just 32.0 yards. Greens, on the other hand, are quite large—averaging about 7,000 square feet—placing them among the biggest on Tour. The course includes 83 bunkers, the 12th most of any venue in the current PGA rotation.

    When the Genesis Scottish Open became a co-sanctioned event in 2022, the course played to a Par 71 at 7,293 yards. In 2023, adjustments were made: the Par dropped to 70, and the total yardage was reduced to 7,237. The most notable change came at the 7th hole, which was converted from a short Par 5 into a long Par 4.

    This year, the course has seen a slight increase in length from 2024, now measuring 7,282 yards. Two holes were extended: No. 5 increased from 338 to 347 yards, and No. 11 was lengthened from 475 to 511 yards.

    The five Par 3s range from 147 to 218 yards. In 2024, only two of them played over par—No. 9 with a scoring average of +0.094 and No. 17 at +0.015.

    The ten Par 4s largely fall within the 450 to 500-yard range. No. 5 is the shortest at 347 yards, while No. 7 is the longest at 505 yards and ranked as the toughest Par 4 on the course last year in terms of scoring average.

    The three Par 5s—No. 3, No. 10, and No. 16—all played under par in 2024. The easiest hole on the course was No. 16, which had a scoring average of 4.527.

    Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 13

    Key Statistics:

    The Genesis Scottish Open takes place at The Renaissance Club. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

    StatisticsPGA Tour AverageThe Renaissance Club
    Driving Distance (Yards)284.01293.70
    Driving Accuracy62%52%
    GIR Percentage66%66%
    Avg GIR Prox. to Hole (Feet)29.1732.50
    Scrambling Percentage57%55%
    Avg 3 Putts / Round0.550.47

    Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at The Renaissance Club.

    Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

    • Success at The Renaissance Club starts with consistent performance off the tee. The course features narrow fairways and penal bunkering, putting a premium on both distance and accuracy. Players who excel in this category tend to create more scoring opportunities throughout the round.
      • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Chris Gotterup
        • Niklas Norgaard Moller
        • Scottie Scheffler
        • Jesper Svensson
        • Jordan L Smith
        • Daniel Berger
        • Aldrich Potgieter
        • Chun-an Yu
        • Marco Penge
        • Adam Scott

    Strokes Gained: Approach

    • Approach play remains one of the most predictive metrics for success week to week, and The Renaissance Club is no exception.
      • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Scottie Scheffler
        • Viktor Hovland
        • Sepp Straka
        • Henrik Norlander
        • Daniel Berger
        • Emiliano Grillo
        • Collin Morikawa
        • Ryan Gerard
        • Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
        • Bud Cauley

    Strokes Gained: Around the Green

    • While ball striking is vital, scrambling will also be a key ingredient. The greens are large but undulating, and coastal winds can lead to missed greens in regulation. Players with sharp short games who can save par from difficult lies will have a scoring advantage.
      • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Matteo Manassero
        • Sungjae Im
        • Matt Wallace
        • Andrew Putnam
        • Samuel Stevens
        • Ryo Hisatsune
        • Scottie Scheffler
        • Alejandro Tosti
        • Tommy Fleetwood
        • Chan Kim

    Strokes Gained: Putting

    • Putting on these slower fescue greens can level the playing field, allowing strong putters to separate themselves while penalizing those struggling with the flatstick.
      • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Harry Hall
        • Sam Burns
        • Danny Willett
        • Sam Ryder
        • Andrew Putnam
        • Thorbjorn Olesen
        • Brandt Snedeker
        • Justin Thomas
        • Adrien Saddier
        • J.J. Spaun

    Driving Distance Gained

    • The Renaissance Club rewards length, especially on the Par 5s. Longer hitters can gain an edge by shortening holes and setting up more birdie opportunities.
      • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Aldrich Potgieter
        • Rory McIlroy
        • Niklas Norgaard Moller
        • Jesper Svensson
        • Marco Penge
        • Chris Gotterup
        • Xander Schauffele
        • Rasmus Hojgaard
        • Jhonattan Vegas
        • Nicolai Hojgaard

    Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards

    • Three of the five Par 3s fall within this range. These holes have consistently played over par in recent years, requiring precise long iron or hybrid shots into firm, elevated greens.
      • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Viktor Hovland
        • Erik Van Rooyen
        • Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
        • Sami Valimaki
        • Si Woo Kim
        • Nick Taylor
        • Guido Migliozzi
        • Wyndham Clark
        • Mackenzie Hughes
        • Aldrich Potgieter

    Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards

    • The bulk of Par 4s at The Renaissance Club land in this range. These are often the most difficult holes on the course, so scoring well here is a strong indicator of overall success.
      • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Sam Burns
        • Ludvig Aberg
        • Scottie Scheffler
        • Marcel Siem
        • Matthew Fitzpatrick
        • Max Greyserman
        • Christiaan Bezuidenhout
        • Matthew Jordan
        • Rory McIlroy
        • Corey Conners

    Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards

    • All three Par 5s fall into this range, and all played under par in 2024. Players will need to take advantage of these scoring holes to keep pace with the leaderboard.
      • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Xander Schauffele
        • Viktor Hovland
        • Rory McIlroy
        • Samuel Stevens
        • Scottie Scheffler
        • Vincent Whaley
        • Sam Burns
        • Corey Conners
        • Joe Highsmith
        • Adrien Saddier

    Birdies or Better Gained

    • With winning scores typically falling in the low double digits under par, players who capitalize on birdie chances and avoid big numbers will have the best chance to contend.
      • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Scottie Scheffler
        • Matthias Schmid
        • Aldrich Potgieter
        • Rory McIlroy
        • Keith Mitchell
        • Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
        • Viktor Hovland
        • J.J. Spaun
        • Harry Hall
        • Sami Valimaki

    Proximity Gained: 175-200, 200+ Yards

    • According to DataGolf’s approach distribution from last year, most second shots came from beyond 175 yards—well above the Tour average. Long-iron proximity will be a key differentiator.
      • Leaders in Proximity Gained: 175-200 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Viktor Hovland
        • Matthias Schmid
        • Si Woo Kim
        • Henrik Norlander
        • Patrick Rodgers
        • Sam Ryder
        • Adrien Saddier
        • Karl Vilips
        • Scottie Scheffler
        • Daniel Hillier
      • Leaders in Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
        • Scottie Scheffler
        • Ryan Gerard
        • Antoine Rozner
        • Matthew Fitzpatrick
        • Adam Schenk
        • Viktor Hovland
        • Romain Langasque
        • Chun-an Yu
        • Matthias Schmid
        • Junghwan Lee

    Comparable Courses and Event History

    • DataGolf’s Course History Tool shows that while course experience is helpful, it hasn’t been a massive edge historically. Still, familiarity with the layout, coastal conditions, and links-style adjustments can’t be ignored.
      • Leaders in this category in the last (SG at The Renaissance Club – Last 3 Editions):
        • Robert Macintyre
        • Joohyung Kim
        • Rory McIlroy
        • Romain Langasque
        • Wyndham Clark
        • Tommy Fleetwood
        • Adam Scott
        • Corey Conners
        • Thorbjorn Olesen
        • Victor Perez

    The Field:

    The 2025 Genesis Scottish Open will feature a field of 156 players, with twenty of the top 30 in the Official World Golf Ranking set to compete.

    Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:

    • Top 30 on prior season’s FedExCup
    • Current FedExCup season leaders
    • Sponsor exemption (members not otherwise exempt)
    • DP World Tour eligibility (75 players)
    • Sponsor exemption (unrestricted)
    • KPGA (three spots)

    Previous Winners in the Field (Event):

    • Robert Macintyre (’24), Rory McIlroy (’23), Xander Schauffele (’22), Aaron Rai (’20), Bernd Wiesberger (’19), Brandon Stone (’18), Alex Noren (’16), Justin Rose (’14), Luke Donald (’11)

    Debutants in the Field:

    • Aldrich Potgieter, Alejandro Tosti, Angel Hidalgo Portillo, Brian Campbell, Bud Cauley, Danny Walker, David Ford, David Ravetto, Dylan Naidoo, Elvis Smylie, Eugenio Chacarra, Frederic LaCroix, Henrik Norlander, Hongtaek Kim, Isaiah Salinda, Jacob Bridgeman, Jake Knapp, Joe Dean, Joe Highsmith, Karl Vilips, Kevin Roy, Luke Clanton, Marco Penge, Martin Couvra, Matt McCarty, Max McGreevy, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Ryan Gerard, Ryggs Johnston, Sam Bairstow, Taylor Pendrith, Wooyoung Cho.

    Exemptions:

    • Luke Clanton – Sponsor’s Exemption (Restricted)
    • David Ford – Sponsor’s Exemption (Restricted)
    • Alex Noren – Sponsor’s Exemption
    • Richie Ramsay – Sponsor’s Exemption (Unrestricted)
    • Brandt Snedeker – Sponsor’s Exemption (Unrestricted)

    Notable Withdraws/ Changes:

    • N/A

    The Odds:

    Here are the current favorites for this week’s event:

    GolferOddsLast 5 Finishes on the PGA TOUR
    (Recent -> Past)
    Last 5 Finishes at the Genesis Scottish Open
    (Recent -> Past)
    Scottie Scheffler+360T6-T7-WON-T4-WONT3-MC
    Rory McIlroy+800T6-T19-MC-T47-T7T4-WON
    Xander Schauffele+1800T61-T12-T25-T28-T11WON-T42-T15
    Tommy Fleetwood+2200T2-MC-T16-T4-T41T4-T6-T34
    Collin Morikawa+2500T8-T42-T23-T20-T50T4-MC-T4

    Tournament Props:

    Playoff:

    • Will There Be a Playoff at the Genesis Scottish Open? (Yes +360 / No -500)

    Since moving to The Renaissance Club in 2019, this event has gone to a playoff three times—in 2019, 2020, and 2021. However, since the tournament became an officially sanctioned PGA TOUR event in 2022, a playoff has not been needed to determine the winner.

    Hole-in-One:

    • Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Genesis Scottish Open? (Yes -210 / No +150)

    There were no aces recorded in 2024.
    In 2023, Nicolas Colsaerts made a hole-in-one on No. 14.
    In 2022, Jordan Smith recorded one on No. 17.

    Any player who hits a hole-in-one earns a car for both him and his caddie.

    Recent Horses for Courses (The Renaissance Club):

    Genesis Scottish OpenGenesis Scottish OpenGenesis Scottish Open
    The Renaissance ClubThe Renaissance ClubThe Renaissance Club
    GolferSG: Total (Event)202420232022
    Robert Macintyre+25.94WON2MC
    Joohyung (Tom) Kim+25.54T15T63
    Rory McIlroy+22.94T4WON–
    Romain Langasque+13.943T25–
    Wyndham Clark+11.94T10T25T16
    Tommy Fleetwood+11.94T34T6T4

    Recent Donkeys for Courses (The Renaissance Club):

    Genesis Scottish OpenGenesis Scottish OpenGenesis Scottish Open
    The Renaissance ClubThe Renaissance ClubThe Renaissance Club
    GolferSG: Total (Event)202420232022
    Danny Willett-14.66MCMCMC
    Luke Donald-5.03MCMCMC
    Ockert Strydom-7.51MCMC–
    Chun-an (Kevin) Yu-7.51MCMC–
    Pablo Larrazabal-4.51MCMC–
    Simon Forsström-2.51MCMC–
    Sepp Straka-0.37MC–MC

    Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

    • 2024: Robert Macintyre (-18)
      • Price: 55-1
    SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
    8th4th5th45th16th

    • 2023: Rory McIlroy (-15)
      • Price: 8-1
    SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
    3rd1st4th38th29th
    • 2022: Xander Schauffele (-7)
      • Price: 20-1
    SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
    16th1st7th15th27th

    Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

    • 2024: Robert Macintyre
      • MC – Rocket Mortgage Classic (PGA)
      • T16 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
      • MC – U.S. Open (MAJ)
      • T8 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
      • WON – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
    • 2023: Rory McIlroy
      • T7 – Travelers Championship (PGA)
      • 2 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
      • T9 – RBC Canadian Open (PGA)
      • T7 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
      • T7 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
    • 2022: Xander Schauffele
      • WON – Travelers Championship (PGA)
      • T14 – U.S. Open (MAJ)
      • T18 – the Memorial Tournament (PGA)
      • T13 – PGA Championship (MAJ)
      • T5 – AT&T Byron Nelson (PGA)

    Previous Winners’ Finishes at Course:

    2024: Robert Macintyre

    Genesis Scottish OpenGenesis Scottish OpenAbrdn Scottish OpenAberdeen Standard Investments
    Scottish Open
    Aberdeen Standard Investments
    Scottish Open
    The Renaissance ClubThe Renaissance ClubThe Renaissance ClubThe Renaissance ClubThe Renaissance Club
    20232022202120202019
    2MCT18T14MC

    2023: Rory McIlroy

    abrdn Scottish OpenAberdeen Standard Investments Scottish Open
    The Renaissance ClubThe Renaissance Club
    20212019
    MCT34

    2022: Xander Schauffele

    abrdn Scottish Open
    The Renaissance Club
    2021
    T10

    Tournament Winner:

    Sam Burns (+4000) – DraftKings

    Matt Fitzpatrick (+4500) – DraftKings

    Corey Conners (+4500) – FanDuel

    Adam Scott (+5500) – DraftKings

    Ryan Fox (+6500) – DraftKings

    Maverick McNealy (+8000) – FanDuel

    Max Greyserman (+9000) – FanDuel

    Thomas Detry (+9000) – FanDuel

    Nicolai Hojgaard (+10000) – FanDuel

    Top 20 (Including Ties):

    Robert MacIntyre (+130) – DraftKings

    Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

    Podcast 708 – 44 – 25 – With Mike Palm – 2025 Circa Football Contests – NFL Divisions and WK 1 – Sports Betting

    The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
    The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

    We have a GREAT show for you today! Mike Palm @MikePalmCirca from @CircaLasVegas @CircaSports is back to break down a massive NFL Season!  First, we talk about contests. What is new for the Circa?  What does the Grandissimo mean?  Next, we get into what the guarantees are for Circa Millions and Circa Survivor!   What has changed from last year?  After that, Mike and Kiev talk about NFL divisions, and if they each like any future plays with some season win totals! Plenty of free picks!  Next, Mike and Kiev talk about some of the MVP and coach of the year markets.  Finally, the guys get into NFL week 1!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!

    Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie/ Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

    Use Promo Code Football25 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE or 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2025 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2025

    Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

    Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel:  https://t.me/KievONeil

    Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here!  https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS

    If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves!  Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!

    You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

    UFC 317 Saturday Super-Play – Sports betting – Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van

    Brandon Royval vs Joshua Van -125 O/U 1.5

    Get ready for fireworks as No. 1 contender Brandon Royval takes on surging prospect Joshua Van in a high-stakes flyweight clash at UFC 317 in Las Vegas. This bout wasn’t originally on the card—Royval was set to face Manel Kape in a title eliminator, but when Kape withdrew due to injury, Van stepped in on short notice.

    🧠 Tale of the Tape

    Fighter Brandon Royval Joshua Van
    Record 17-7 14-2
    Age 32 23
    Height 5’9″ 5’5″
    Reach 68″ 66″ (approx.)
    UFC Ranking #1 Flyweight #12 Flyweight
    Style Dynamic grappler/striker Crisp boxer, fast hands

    🔍 What to Watch For

    • Royval’s Experience: He’s only lost to champions like Pantoja and Moreno, and owns wins over top-tier fighters like Kai Kara-France and Moreno (in a rematch).
    • Van’s Momentum: Riding a four-fight win streak, including a dominant finish over Bruno Silva just weeks ago at UFC 316.
    • Short Notice Factor: Van is stepping in fresh but unprepared for Royval’s unorthodox style and elite grappling.

    🧪 Prediction Breakdown

    • Royval’s Path to Victory: Mixes striking with relentless scrambles. If he gets Van to the ground, his submission game could be decisive.
    • Van’s Upset Potential: He’s got sharp boxing and solid takedown defense. If he keeps it standing, he could outpoint Royval or land something big.

    💰 Betting Odds Snapshot

    • Van: Slight favorite at -125
    • Royval: Underdog at +105

    Prediction:

    This is going to be a banger!   The handicap on this fight is simple.   It really has to do with the amount of rounds that this fight is scheduled to go.   I think that Rovyall is the more rounded fighter with a big strength of opponent advantage.  The problem with this fight and all light weight fights, is that volume is key.  Royvall’s path to victory is wrestling his opponent, but there will not be enough time in this matchup for takedowns.   Joshua van has an 81% take-down defense, and over three rounds he will not tire out.   Joshua Vann is a boxer, and he is going to throw.   Van lands 8.2 significant strikes per round, while Rovall is low for this weight at 4.46.  Brandon will also have to be careful as Van does know how to shoot take-downs while Royval only has a 45% take-down defense.   I like the up and coming guy here in a three round fight.   The number isn’t too much to lay.

    Joshua Van -125 – 1.5 stars

    Bonus Play:  Beniel Dariush -105 – 1 star (BetMGM) – Dariush is better than Moicano no matter how you slice it.  He will have advantages both standing and on the ground.   He also has better defense.  

    Friday MLB Free Play – Let’s Get Pickles

    Baseball season continues chugging along. I didn’t have the greatest start in MLB, losing 7 of 8 to start the year didn’t help, but we’re plodding with promise. April we were down just over 11 Units, and we got it all back in May plus a little. June was less than stellar to start dropping 13 units the first two weeks, but we’ve rallied back and had a seven day winning streak end yesterday. For the season we currently sit at 77-79 +3.6 Units. Most of my plays in MLB are 1 or 1.5 units, with some rarer 2 Unit plays.

    My Analysis today turns to Progressive Field in Cleveland, OH where the Cleveland Guardians (40-39) will host the St. Louis Cardinals (44-38) at 6:10 ET. The current line sits with the Cardinals as slight favorites at -124 (Guardians +114) with an Over/Under of 8.5 juiced to the over at -115. Game time temperature will be a balmy 88 degrees with a chance for light rain. The wind blowing out slightly to right center at roughly 5-10mph.

    The home Guardians will start Luis Ortiz who is coming off his best outing of the year Saturday in Sacromento where he held the Athletics scoreless over six innings with 10 Ks and 2 BBs. He currently sits with a 4.30 ERA, but just a 3.64 xFIP. His K-rate is way up this season as he is striking out over 10 batter per nine innings. The walks and home runs have been the major issue as his 14.3% HR/FB rate.

    On the other side of the diamond we will see Sonny “Pickles” Gray taking the hill for the Cardinals. Gray is very all or nothing as most of his damage to his ERA has come in just three of his fifteen starts. He holds a 3.72 ERA with a minuscule 3.11xFIP. He is striking out 9.57 per nine innings and walking only 1.81. That’s a greater than 5/1 ratio which is elite stuff.

    So what’s the angle?

    Well on the offensive side of things the Cardinals have been far superior against right handed pitching featuring a .738 OPS and they strike out 21.9% of their at-bats while the Guardians hold a .691 OPS with a 24.1% whiff rate. The Cardinals were shutout the last two days by really good Cubs pitching and should be ready to bounce back here to the their form of the prior ten days when they averaged 6.4 runs per game. The Guardians are averaging just 2.7 runs per game over that same stretch.

    While both pitchers can fix problems with the strikeout Gray creates many less for himself than Ortiz does via the walk, and he has a much lower HR rate against him.

    Both teams feature similar bullpen ERAs with the Cards sitting at 3.85 and the Guardians at 3.80. Neither pen used there key pieces yesterday so everyone should be rested and ready to go.

    With the wind blowing out I want the better offense with the guy that keeps the ball in the park better on my side at this short of a price. I have this closer to Cards -145 so I’m taking the value here and playing the favorite.

    Cardinals ML -124 for 1.5 Units

    Podcast 707 – 43 – 25 – With Brad Powers – College Football 2025 Buy Low Sell High Preview – UFC 317 – Sports Betting

    The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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    AFC West 2025 Preview – Season Win Totals & Best Bet – Sports Betting

    AFC West – The AFC West last year was a somewhat weak division that I expect to be much stronger for 2025.  All four coaches have been to super bowls with three of them all winning at least one.   Jim Harbaugh hasn’t gotten back there for a while due to his national championship stint over at Michigan.  The biggest question is if the Chiefs are ever going to falter.  Can the other great coaches catch up?  What are the big personnel changes?  This division plays the AFC South and the NFC East which I would call a pretty favorable draw.  The AFC South is garbage, and the NFC East is top-heavy.  Let’s see how it all shakes out.

    Best Bet:  Chargers over 9.5 wins +105 – 1 star (FD)

    Divisional Odds:  Chiefs -120 – Broncos +300 – Chargers +310 – Raiders +2000

    Kansas City Chiefs – 

    Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the under -120

    2024 Wins: 15

    Pythagorean Wins: 10.20

    Schedule: Hard – at large vs Baltimore, vs Detroit, @ Buffalo

    Schedule Last Year:  Hard

    Key losses: G Joe Thuney, DT Tershawn Wharton, S Justin Reid, WR DeAndre Hopkins, WR Justin Watson, OLB Joshua Uche, RB Samaje Perine, WR Mecole Hardman.

    Key additions: T Jaylon Moore, CB Kristian Fulton, DE Charles Omenihu, RB Elijah Mitchell.

    Key draft picks: T Josh Simmons, DL Omarr Noman-Lott, CB Nohl Williams.

    Summary:  Last season, the Chiefs did things what the Chiefs do best.  They win games, and they get to super bowls.   It’s hard to quantify what has been happening with this team, because on paper, they look just a bit above average.  Great playmakers, great coaching, and a ton of NFL love gets them where they need to be.  The Chief’s “luck” ranking last season from teamrankings.com was easily the highest in NFL history at 5.2.  The Vikings were second at 3.2 which would have gotten them number one many of the other years.   The formula to bet the Chiefs is to take them when they are short favorites or short dogs, but fade them when they are a large favorite against the bad teams in the NFL.  Last season’s Kansas City team should have lost outright to the Falcons and the Panthers, while they didn’t sniff the cover. Last season, this Chiefs team only ranked 9th on EPA on offense, and 15th in EPA on defense.  They should have not won 15 games and their Pythagorean win total discrepancy is massive as they should have won closer to 10 games.  This number doesn’t even include the fact that they tanked their final regular season game.  This Chiefs team is getting older in their key areas.   Tight End Travis Kelce took a large step back last season.  Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, may not be considered old yet, but maybe the finer things in life may have gotten to him some, and his competitiveness could take a hit.  I While I am not sure that will happen, I still think that, right now, Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL.  Bills quarterback Josh Allen is the best playmaker in the NFL.  Lamar is right there too. The good news for Kansas City this coming season is that they are attempting to fix their offensive line.  They lost some pieces over the years, but they were able to draft an Ohio State guy and pick up Jaylon Moore in free agency.  The receiving crew should be fine with a healthy Hollywood Brown and rookie sensation Xavier Worthy leading the way.  I expect Noah Gray to steal some of Kelce’s tight end reps this season as well for all of you fantasy gurus.  The only direction that I can go with this Chiefs team is under 11.5 wins.  Regression has to happen sooner than later unless the NFL officials once again give the Chiefs some serious help during crunch time in their games.

    My Number: 10.1

    Action Under 11.5 wins for 1 star 

    Kansas City Chiefs Power rating: 3.5

    2. Los Angeles Chargers – 

    Vegas win total: 9.5 

    2024 Wins: 11

    Pythagorean Wins:  11.37

    Schedule: Medium – at large @Miami, vs Minnesota, vs Pittsburgh

    Schedule Last Year: Medium

    Key losses – RB JK Dobbins, Edge Joey Bosa, CB Kristian Fulton, WR Josh Palmer, DT Poona Ford, LB Nick Niemann, DE Morgan Fox.

    Key additions: G Mekhi Becton, CB Donte Jackson, RB Najee Harris, WR Mike Williams, TE Tyler Conklin, CB Benjamin St-Juste.

    Key draft picks: RB Omarion Hampton, WR Tre Harris, DL Mamaree Caldwell, Edge Kyle Kennard.

    Summary:  Jim Harbaugh doing Jim Harbaugh things.  Going from five to eleven wins is quite something, and if it wasn’t for KOC, Jim might have gotten the coach of the year.  In saying that, there aren’t many coaches that I trust more than Harbaugh.  Jim and his philosophy instills belief in his guys.  If Harbaugh is about one thing, it’s about the trenches.  He loves his big men and I do too.  Notice how the Chargers let JK Dobbins walk after having a great year that was barely hindered by injuries.  This team instead signs Najee Harris which should be an upgrade.  Drafting Omarion Hampton basically tells us all that they are a run focused team who will pass the ball when needed.  I do not see a large problem shedding Joey Bosa, as it was hard enough just to keep the guy healthy and on the field enough to make a seasonal impact.  I do like the addition of guard Mekhi Becton, and tight end Tyler Conklin.  The Chargers are building a team that will want to punch you in the mouth.  I expect that they will run clock and keep some low scores.  Last season, the Bolts ranked 12th in offensive EPA and 5th on defense.  This season, they have a winnable schedule, and Jim will do it his way.   I think the Chargers win this division.

    My Number:  11.19 wins

    Action – Chargers to win AFC West +300 – .5 stars (FD) – Chargers over 9.5 wins +105 – 1 star (FD)

    Las Angeles Chargers Power Rating: 2.75

    3. Denver Broncos – 

    Vegas win total:  9.5 

    2024 Wins:  10

    Pythagorean Wins:  11.61

    Schedule: Medium – at large vs Cincinnati, vs NY Jets (game in London) , vs Green Bay

    Schedule Last Year:  Medium Easy

    Key losses: LB Cody Barton, QB Zach Wilson, CB Tremon Smith, RB Javonte Williams.

    Key additions:  S Talanoa Hufanga, LB Dre Greenlaw, TE Evan Engram.

    Key draft picks: CB Jahdae Barron, RB RJ Harvey, WR Pat Bryant, Edge Sai’vion Jones, Edge Quandarrius Robinson.

    Summary:  The Broncos kicked ass last season, and the improvement that we saw was due to good free agency moves, as well as drafting well with rookie quarterback Bo Nix exceeding expectations.  Solid coaching also played a part with Sean Payton.  I really want to pick this Broncos team apart as I somewhat believe that this team was just very fortunate, but their Pythagorean win total states that they underachieved.  This is really a head scratcher if you ask me.  This Broncos team had the best EPA per play defense in the league!  The offense ranked a modest 16th in EPA.  I have to give them a ton of credit for that as well.  So what is going on then?  Well, looking a bit deeper into last year’s schedule, this team beat a bunch of tomato cans.  Their last game against the Chiefs was against their third string where the broncos won 38-0.  The Broncos best (real) win last year was at Tampa Bay on week 3.  Otherwise, this Broncos team lost every game that they played against a team that finished .500 or better.  The good news for Denver is that they still have Bo Nix on a rookie deal.  They were able to go out and pay for some good playmakers, and fill in some holes.  Now for some negatives.  I am not a big fan of their receiving core on this team.  Courtland Sutton is really the only guy to be worried about.  Losing running back Javonte Williams was also a head scratcher to me as I thought that he was very good for them.   Is a sophomore slump coming for quarterback Bo Nix?  Nothing would surprise me with this team.   If the Broncos win the division, I would not be surprised.  If they take last place, I would not be surprised.  In saying that, I think that the Broncos will compete for the division.  I think a good strategy is to play on the Chargers, and the Broncos for the division to fade the Chiefs.   Good numbers to be had.

    My number:  9.81

    Action – Lean over, Broncos to win AFC West +300 – .5 stars

    Denver Broncos Power Rating: 1.75

    4.  Las Vegas Raiders – 

    Vegas win total: 6.5 juiced to the over -145

    2024 Wins:  4

    Pythagorean Wins:  5.14

    Schedule: Medium –  at large @ New England, vs Chicago, vs Cleveland

    Schedule Last Year: Medium

    Key losses: Coach Antonio Pierce, S Trevon Moehrig, CB Nate Hobbs, LB Robert Spillane, LB Divine Deablo, LB K’Laveon Chaisson, S Marcus Epps, G Cody Whitehair, T Andrus Peat.

    Key additions:  10% owner Tom Brady, Coach Pete Carrol, QB Geno Smith, S Jeremy Chinn, G Alex Cappa, CB Eric Stokes, OLB Elandon Roberts, CB Lonnie Johnson, RB Raheem Mostert, TE Ian Thomas, DT Leki Fotu.

    Key draft picks: RB Ashton Jeanty, WR Jack Bech, CB Darien Porter, G Caleb Rogers, T Charles Grant.

    Summary:  Another year, another new head coach for the Raiders.  This team unfortunately has transient syndrome, where the fans of other teams outnumber their own fans at their home stadium in Las Vegas.  The strange thing for this Raiders team is that quarterback Geno Smith comes with his old mentor head coach Pete Carrol.  As much as an upgrade this is over Aiden O’Connell, it’s still not going to get them to the dance.  The Raiders were kind of a weird team last season.  They would meddle in some games as they beat teams like the Ravens, and kept both Chiefs games within seven.   Las Vegas almost beat the Chiefs again last season on the Friday after Thanksgiving, but there was just not enough playmakers to get the job done.  Ex head coach Antonio Pearce took a ton of the blame for the locker room issues, but I also do not think that Pierce had much of a chance for success as he didn’t have any good players.  During 2024, the Raiders actually had a half way decent defense ranking 14th in EPA.   It was that dreadful offense that set them back ranking 31st in EPA.  For 2025, we have to upgrade them some due to a proven quarterback, and a winning coach.  I just don’t think that we can go overboard here.  The Raiders should be more competitive, but not enough to contest for this division.

    My Number:   7.58 wins

    Action – Lean over

    Las Vegas Raiders Power Rating:  -3

    *Blue means not signed or picked up by an NFL team

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