March Madness is here and I am analyzing every opening round game for the South Bracket. A few of our other excellent handicappers are handling the other regions. I’ve got the most exciting of the brackets in the fact that there is a real good chance of upsets in round one and beyond in this bracket.
I’m gonna drop some quick tidbits on each game and give out a few FREE PLAYS along the way. All game times are in EDT cause that time change thing just happened and these games are in the South region. Y’all can figure out what time it actually is where you live.
Here’s the match-ups and locations for the South games
First Four
No. 16 Alabama State vs. No. 16 St. Francis, 6:40 p.m., Tuesday March 18, Dayton, Ohio
No. 11 San Diego State vs. No. 11 North Carolina, 9:10 p.m. Tuesday March 18, Dayton, Ohio
First Round
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 16 Alabama State/St. Francis, 2:50 p.m., Thursday March 20, Lexington, Ky.
No. 8 Louisville vs. No. 9 Creighton, 12:15 p.m. Thursday March 20, Lexington, Ky.
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 12 UC San Diego, 10 p.m., Thursday March 20, Denver
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 Yale, 7:25 p.m., 7:25 p.m. Thursday, March 20, Denver
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 San Diego State/North Carolina, 4:05 p.m. Friday March 21, Milwaukee
No. 3 Iowa State vs. No. 14 Lipscomb, 1:30 p.m., Friday March 21, Milwaukee
No. 7 Marquette vs. No. 10 New Mexico, 7:25 p.m., Friday March 21, Cleveland
No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 15 Bryant 10 p.m., Friday March 21, Cleveland
16 Seed Play in Game No. 16 Alabama State (-3.5) vs. No. 16 St. Francis O/U 138.5
The two lowest ranked teams in the tournament by metrics square off for a chance to face Auburn. Alabama St. is on a roll winners of 10 of their last 11 contests en route to a SWAC tournament title. St. Francis also closed strong winning 8 of their last 10 including taking the NEC title over a Central Connecticut State team that beat them twice by a combined 31 points in the regular season.
I don’t do much capping on either of these conferences so I am fairly unfamiliar with the teams, but looking at the metrics it seems a clash of styles with Alabama State looking to have quick efficient possessions and St Francis looking to work some clock and take advantage of where they are most efficient which is scoring inside. Biggest glaring number that stands out is turnovers. Alabama St. really takes care of the ball ranking 5th nationally and they also turn their opponents over at a top 100 national ranking. St. Francis on the other hand is one of the worst in the country turning the ball over nearly at a 20% clip. They also don’t turn their opponents over often. Look for this to be the difference in the game.
It’s not a play for me because I just havent’ seen either of these teams, but strong lean to Alabama St. -3.5 based on the numbers.
11 Seed Play in Game No. 11 San Diego State O/U 142.5 vs. No. 11 North Carolina (-5)
UNC is arguably the team the belongs the least in the field of 68. They did finish well down the stretch winning eight in a row before losing to Duke in the ACC Semis. They were very inconsistent over much of the season really struggling on the defensive side of things against good offensive teams. SDSU tied for 4th in a loaded top of the Mountain West falling to Boise State to start off their MWC tournament. The Aztecs are here however and the Broncos have been relegated to the new big money tourney in Vegas. SDSU also owns an overtime win over Houston earlier this year.
We will see a big clash of styles here as well with UNC looking to get out and run and SDSU looking to control pace and make the Tar Heels grind the clock with their 13th ranked defense. SDSU gets seven footer Magoon Gwath back from injury and he should help the cause as UNC has struggled with big interior post presences all season long as well. Gwath is 4th in the country at blocking opponents shots. If UNC is to prevail they’ll need to shoot well from beyond the arc as nothing in the paint is going to be easy for them. SDSU has shown they can play with anyone and if their able to knock down some shots I think the dog is live in this one and I’ll gladly take the 5 points.
SDSU +5 1.5 Units
