Model Prediction: Yankees win by 0.3 runs; 53% win probability (SportsGrid)
🔍 Key Storylines
⭐ Yankees: Red‑hot momentum
New York has won five straight, including an 8–2 win over Oakland the night before.
Their offense is rolling:
Aaron Judge leads with 17 HR.
Ben Rice hitting .303 with 39 RBI.
The Yankees’ pitching staff owns a 3.12 ERA, one of the best in the AL.
🟢 Athletics: Competitive but inconsistent
Oakland sits 10–16 at home and has struggled when allowing home runs — but they’re 11–6 when they allow none.
Shea Langeliers is producing at the plate (.292 AVG, 13 HR).
J.T. Ginn has quietly been excellent since joining the rotation (2.89 ERA over last 9 starts).
🔑 Matchup Factors
Pitching Duel
Both starters have nearly identical ERAs (3.14 vs. 3.19), suggesting a tight early game.
Weathers’ strikeout ability vs. a contact‑leaning A’s lineup
Ginn’s recent form gives Oakland a real chance to keep it close
Offense vs. Offense
Yankees: More power, deeper lineup, hotter recent form
Athletics: Less explosive but more opportunistic when keeping the ball in the park
Momentum
Yankees: 5 straight wins
Athletics: 4 losses in last 5
Prediction:
I like the A’s to start out hot in this one. This team was blown out last night and will be hungry for some runs.
As good as Yankee’s pitcher Ryan Weather’s has been, the As have been hitting well this year, and the Pitching advantage actually goes to J.T. Ginn who is boasting a 3.14 ERA with only 23 walks over 53 innings. His 48 strikeouts stand out.
I do not like the Full game so much as the A’s bullpen is beatup, but I think that there is value here in the 1st 5 innings.
The NFC North once again enters the season as one of the NFL’s premier divisions. Much like 2024 and 2025, all four teams remain competitive, and remarkably, no team finished below .500 last season. That level of parity is rare in a 17‑game schedule and speaks to the depth and coaching quality across the division.
For 2026, Vegas projects another tight race: the lowest win total is Minnesota at 8.5, meaning every team is expected to contend. These teams will beat each other up, but the scheduling gods were relatively kind. The division draws the AFC East (two strong teams, two weak ones) and the NFC South, which is favorable. The gap between a first‑place and last‑place schedule remains meaningful, and as always, health and turnover luck will shape the final standings.
Interestingly, Pythagorean win totals from 2025 paint a different picture than the standings, flipping the order to Lions / Vikings / Packers / Bears. Coaching matters, but so do turnovers—and the NFC gets the extra home game this season, which could help.
🧠 2025 NFC North Advanced Metrics (With Full NFL Rankings)
(Based 100% on the table you provided — no guessing, no old data)
🐻 Chicago Bears — 2025 Advanced Rankings
Metric
Value
Rank (of 32)
Off EPA/play
0.076
8th
Def EPA/play
0.035
21st
Off Success Rate
45.7%
13th
Def Success Rate
47.2%
26th
Off Pass EPA
0.122
12th
Def Pass EPA
0.088
20th
Profile: Above‑average offense (top‑12 EPA), average defense, below‑average pass defense.
Profile: Bottom‑5 offense, bottom‑5 defense by EPA, but top‑10 pass defense and top‑10 defensive success rate — classic Flores bend‑don’t‑break.
Odds to Win the Division
Lions +180
Packers +215
Bears +310
Vikings +500
1. Chicago Bears
Vegas Win Total: 9.5 2025 Wins: 11 Pythagorean Wins: 8.04 Schedule Difficulty: Medium‑Hard At‑Large Games: vs Eagles, @ Seahawks, vs Jaguars Power Rating: 3
Key Losses
OC Declan Doyal, WR DJ Moore, LB Tremaine Edmunds, S Kevin Byard, S Jaquan Brisker, S Chauncey Gardner‑Johnson, CB Nayshon Wright, DL Andrew Billings
Key Additions
S Coby Bryant, DL Neville Gallimore, CB Cam Lewis, WR Kalif Raymond
Draft Class
S Dillon Theineman, C Logan Jones, TE Sam Roush, WR Savion Thomas, CB Malik Muhammad, LB Keyshawn Elliott
Summary
The Bears were one of the league’s biggest stories in 2025. Nicknamed the Cardiac Bears, they repeatedly played poorly for three quarters only to storm back in the fourth. That late‑game magic helped them overperform dramatically: 11 wins vs. 8.04 expected wins, driven by +22 turnover differential, strong coaching from Ben Johnson, and clutch play from Caleb Williams.
But sustainability is a concern.
Chicago suffered major losses in the secondary and at linebacker. First‑round pick Dillon Theineman will be asked to fill big shoes immediately. DC Dennis Allen returns to a defense that ranked 21st in EPA, struggling against both the run and pass. Getting TJ Edwards healthy helps, but depth remains thin.
Offensively, losing DJ Moore hurts, but the WR room is still talented with Rome Odunze and Luther Burden. The offensive line is solid, though LT remains a worry with Braxton Jones and Ozzy Trapilo.
From a scheduling standpoint, Chicago faces the 6th‑hardest slate based on opponent win totals and the worst schedule against opposing pass efficiency. The silver lining: they have +15 net rest days, the best in the league, and avoid opponents coming off byes or mini‑byes.
Projection: 9.02 wins Action: Lean Under
2. Green Bay Packers
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 (Under -140) 2025 Wins: 9.5 Pythagorean Wins: 9.31 Schedule Difficulty: Medium At‑Large Games: vs Cowboys, @ Rams, vs Texans Power Rating: 3
Key Losses
DC Jeff Hafley, QB Malik Willis, WR Romeo Doubs, LB Quay Walker, C Elgton Jenkins, LT Rasheed Walker, CB Nate Hobbs, CB Trevon Diggs
Key Additions
DC Jonathan Gannon, DT Javon Hargrave, CB Benjamin St‑Juste, QB Tyrod Taylor
Draft Class
CB Brandon Cissee, DL Chris McClellan, Edge Dani Dennis‑Sutton
Summary
The Packers once again fell short of expectations, and frustration is growing—especially with repeated postseason failures against the Bears. The blockbuster Micah Parsons trade cost them significant draft capital, leaving their first pick at No. 52. Parsons’ health will be a major storyline.
The offensive line took major hits with the departures of Jenkins and Rasheed Walker. The secondary also lost key contributors, and replacing Quay Walker won’t be easy. Jonathan Gannon takes over as DC; while he excelled in Philadelphia, his Arizona tenure was rocky.
The good news: the skill positions remain loaded with Matthew Golden, Jayden Hicks, and Christian Watson. Jordan Love continues to develop, and the team’s floor remains high.
Green Bay is still an above‑average team with a strong coaching staff, but the roster is thinner than in previous years.
Projection: 9.41 wins Action: No Play
3. Detroit Lions
Vegas Win Total: 10.5 2025 Wins: 9 Pythagorean Wins: 9.96 Schedule Difficulty: Easiest in NFL At‑Large Games: @ Cardinals, vs Titans, vs Giants Power Rating: 3
Key Losses
OC John Morton, LB Alex Anzalone, CB Amik Robertson, DL DJ Reader, DL Roy Lopez, LT Taylor Decker, C Graham Glasgow, multiple edge rushers
Key Additions
OC Drew Petzing, C Cade Mays, RT Larry Borom, CB Rock Ya‑Sin, Edge DJ Wonnum
Draft Class
T Blake Miller, Edge Derrick Moore, LB Jimmy Rolder
Summary
Detroit’s competitive window is narrowing—not because of talent, but because the roster is now expensive and difficult to maintain. The offense still boasts elite playmakers in Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon‑Ra St. Brown, but the offensive line suffered major losses.
Hiring Drew Petzing as OC is questionable; his track record doesn’t inspire confidence.
Defensively, losing Alex Anzalone and several key linemen weakens a unit that already struggled. Regression is likely.
The saving grace: Detroit has the easiest schedule in the league based on opponent win totals. If they stay healthy, they can still contend for the division, but the margin for error is shrinking.
Projection: 9.48 wins Action: Lean Under 10.5
4. Minnesota Vikings
Vegas Win Total: 8.5 2025 Wins: 9 Pythagorean Wins: 9.37 Schedule Difficulty: Medium At‑Large Games: vs Colts, vs 49ers, vs Washington Power Rating: 1
Key Losses
DL Jonathan Allen, WR Jalen Nailor, DL Javon Hargrave, S Harrison Smith, CB Jeff Okudah
The Vikings enter 2026 with one of the strangest quarterback transitions in recent memory—moving on from a QB who went on to win a Super Bowl elsewhere. Yet Minnesota quietly became one of the league’s most underrated teams late last season, winning five straight and leapfrogging Detroit for third place.
Unfortunately, that success saddles them with a tougher schedule, including the 49ers instead of the Cardinals.
The biggest question is at quarterback:
Can Kyler Murray recapture his early‑career form?
Is JJ McCarthy just average, or something more?
If either answer is positive, this roster has upside.
DC Brian Flores engineered a top‑3 defense in EPA, while the offense ranked 28th. Even modest offensive improvement could make Minnesota a playoff contender. They didn’t lose much outside the defensive line, and if their draft picks contribute early, this team could surprise.
Projection: 8.87 wins Action: Vikings to Make Playoffs +166 (0.5 stars)
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil goes solo to break down the NFC North! First, Kiev talks about the summer and the direction of sports betting for folks to get better deals. Next, we get into the NFC North preview for 2026! What are the divisional odds? Which teams lost a bunch of production? Which teams overachieved from 2025? Which teams have the hardest and the easiest schedules? We answer these questions and much more during the show. We also have a Best Bet! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Jul 5, 2021; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; Montreal Canadiens right wing Josh Anderson (17) shoots and scores against Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) during the overtime period in game four of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final at the Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports
After a crazy start to the season we’ve leveled off a bit here in May. We are still well up for the year with a 205-190-11 overall record putting us at +56.88 Units on MLB for the season. Totals have been the killer for us the last few weeks in May as we booked our second straight losing week. Hoping to get us back on track this week and grow the number. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com.
I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to Petco Park in San Diego, CA where the Padres (31-22) will host the Philadelphia Phillies (27-27 ) at 9:45 ET. The current line sits with the Padres as slight favorites at -106 (Phillies -104) with an Over/Under of 7.5 -110. Game time temp is 65 degrees with winds blowing across from left field at around 10 mph.
The Phillies will start former “Ace” Aaron Nola. He enters the game with a 6.04 ERA. Some of his underlying metrics say he is due for some big positive regression including his 3.69 xFIP. Sometimes the real numbers are telling the truth though also. I’ll get in more detail on that here shortly when I get to the handicap.
The Friars will start Randy Vasquez who holds a 2.96 ERA. His underlying metrics say he is due for some negative regression as his xFIP sits at 4.17.
Neither of these teams have been good on the offensive side of the ball. The Phillies enter the game with a .681 OPS good for 26th in MLB. The Padres have been even worse sitting at .657 with only the Mets showing up lower in the rankings. As a matter of fact I’ve got as many Home Runs in MLB this year as Fernando Tatis Jr. which is exactly zero.
The bullpens have been have both been solid this year with the Padres 5th in MLB with a 3.13 ERA. Having Mason Miller certainly helps that number. The Phillies are at 15th sitting at 3.93. Miller has only thrown 13 pitches in one appearance over the last week. The Phillies on the other hand have used their closer and top reliever Jhoan Duran in three of the last four games so I would assume he is unavailable tonight. They’ve also thrown Brad Keller and Orion Kerkering in two of the last three, so the Padres will likely have the more well rested pen tonight.
My Handicap certainly takes into account Vasquez is due to regress some, but pitchers do change and develop more even after they reach the majors. His biggest difference is his K-rate is up almost 2 batters per nine innings over last year. Looking at the pitch metrics he has increased his Fastball/Change-up usage and lowered his slider percentage. He is actually giving up more hard contact this year than last and the BABIP against is up to reflect that. Walk rate for Vasquez is also down from 2025. Moral of the story on Vasquez is other than his strand rate looking a little high I think we are seeing the real version of him and I expect a little negative regression here, but not to the extent his xFIP or xERA are showing.
Nola on the other hand has been labeled as an “Ace” in the past as I’ve mentioned in the opening and his strikeout to walk ratios throughout his career would agree with that statement. He has a career 9.82 K/9 to go with a 2.38 BB/9. Where the change has happened with Nola is he is giving up a higher percentage of fly-balls compared to ground balls than earlier in his career. Up until 2020 his lowest ground ball rate was 49.7%. Since then his highest was 44.5% and this year he is at 40.9%. Mixing that increased fly-ball rate with a career 14.2% HR/FB percentage and you can see where his struggles are coming from. Much of this is due to a decrease in pitch values across the board from prior to 2020. His hard hit percentage the last two seasons is over 40%. Average exit velocity against is at 89.2MPH. This puts him in the bottom third of all qualified MLB pitchers and certainly not in the “Ace” territory.
With preferring Vasquez over Nola and the Phillies with bullpen usage issues I will gladly put money on the Padres tonight near even money and look to leverage a plus money RL.
The Astros vs. Cubs matchup at Wrigley Field today (May 23, 2026) shapes up as a contrast in momentum and pitching styles, with Chicago entering as the favorite and Houston trying to claw back from a rough stretch.
🧭 Quick Takeaway
The Cubs enter as -156 favorites behind Colin Rea, while the Astros counter with opener Kai‑Wei Teng, who has been effective in short stints. Expect left-handed Cubs hitters—especially Pete Crow-Armstrong—to be key factors against Teng.
⚾ Game Context & Stakes
Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
First Pitch: 2:20 PM ET
Cubs Record: 29–22 (but on a 5‑game losing streak)
Astros Record: 21–31 (trying to stabilize after inconsistent performances)
The Cubs’ skid adds pressure, but their home-field advantage and stronger season record keep them favored.
🔥 Probable Pitchers
Cubs: Colin Rea (RHP)
4–2, 4.98 ERA, 40 K Rea has been hittable but serviceable. His splits suggest vulnerability to right-handed power, which puts Yordan Álvarez and Cam Smith in play.
Astros: Kai‑Wei Teng (RHP)
2.61 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in opener role
Excellent recent form: 3 ER over last 11 innings
Struggles more vs left-handed hitters—a key matchup note for Chicago’s lineup (Happ, Crow-Armstrong).
🔍 Key Matchups to Watch
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs. Teng
Crow-Armstrong is projected to exceed 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs, thanks to Teng’s weaker performance vs lefties.
Yordan Álvarez (HOU) vs. Rea
Álvarez owns a 1.334 OPS in limited ABs vs Rea, making him Houston’s most dangerous bat today.
Cam Smith (HOU)
Smith has been scorching with a 2.500 OPS in a tiny sample vs Rea—still notable for power potential.
Prediction:
I do not like Teng vs the Cubs left handed bats today.
Rea hasn’t been great, but he is right now is the best SP in Chicago.
The Cubs are still a good batting team ranking 4th in wrc+.
We have a great show for you today! Paul Stone @PaulStoneSports is back to break down some early college football! We talk season win totals, futures, and BestBets in every football conference! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/Offer expires December 31st 2026
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The Brewers enter at 26–17, second in the NL Central, while the Twins sit at 20–26, third in the AL Central. Milwaukee has won three straight on the road, including the first two games of this series.
The game is at Target Field, first pitch 2:10 PM EDT.
🔥 Pitching Matchup
Brewers — Robert Gasser (LHP)
Making his 2026 debut after being recalled from Triple‑A.
Coming off Tommy John recovery; last pitched in MLB the previous September.
Prop expectation: projected Over 3.5 strikeouts by analysts.
Twins — Bailey Ober (RHP)
4–2, 3.46 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 39 K.
Coming off a 2‑hit shutout on just 89 pitches — his first career complete game.
⚾ Team Form & Trends
Milwaukee Brewers
11–8 on the road.
Offense: .332 OBP (4th in MLB).
Recent games: W 2–1, W 3–2 vs MIN; W 7–1 vs SD.
Team leaders:
Brice Turang hitting .295
Jake Bauers leads with 6 HR
William Contreras has 27 RBI
Minnesota Twins
12–13 at home.
Power: 50 HR, 7th in AL.
Recent games: L 2–1, L 3–2 vs MIL; W 9–1 vs MIA.
Team leaders:
Byron Buxton hitting .260 with 15 RBI
Joe Ryan leads staff with 52 K
⚖️ Pitching Matchup Summary
Category
Robert Gasser (MIL)
Bailey Ober (MIN)
ERA
2.67 career
3.46 (2026)
WHIP
1.13
1.02
K%
17–22% range
18.7%
BB%
Higher volatility
7.2% (excellent)
FIP
3.96 career / 6.84 2025
3.83
Pitch Mix
Balanced (SL/FA/SI/CH)
CH‑heavy, elite command
Recent Form
Season debut
Coming off 89‑pitch shutout
Prediction:
Bailey Ober has been red hot while Robert Gasser is still inexperienced as he has only 5.2 total MLB innings. I expect the Twins to jump on the Brewers and force their early bullpen.
Bailey Ober has been red hot coming off of a shutout.
The Twins rank 5th in wRC+ against left handed pitching.
