The NFC East:   The NFC East was full of surprises as it not only spawned our super bowl champion, but it also had two teams in the NFC conference championship game.  Similar to the NFC North, the East had a team, like the Vikings, that was projected to take last place in the Commanders, to instead blow away expectations, while the Cowboys, like the Bears, were the team that completely disappointed.  There are reasons for everything, and this is going to be a fun division to break down.  From a scheduling perspective, this division has it pretty rough for 2025.  The East has to play the best division in football in the NFC North, as well as the up and coming AFC West.  One could argue that the AFC west is now the best division at least in the AFC.   Either way, there is going to be some stiff competition with the top three teams.   Can the Cowboys bounce back?   Was Washington for real?   Are the Eagles gonna have that super bowl hangover?  Let’s see how this all shapes up.

Best Bet:   Giants under 5.5 wins -130 – 1 star

Divisional Odds:  Eagles -135, Commanders +205, Cowboys +600, Giants +2500

1. Philadelphia Eagles – 

Vegas win total: 11.5

2024 Wins:  14

Pythagorean Wins:  12.6

Schedule: Hard – At large vs LA Rams, @ Tampa Bay, @ Buffalo

Schedule Last Year:  Medium Easy

Key losses:  OC Kellen Moore, DT Milton Williams, DE Josh Sweat, CB Darius Slay, S CJ Gardner-Johnson, G Mekhi Becton, CB Isaiah Rogers, ILB Oren Burks, RB Kenneth Gainwell, DE Brandon Graham, CB James Bradberry

Key additions: OT Kenyon Green, Edge Azeez Ojulari, OLB Josh Uche, CB Adoree Jackson, T Kendall Lamm, RB AJ Dillon

Key Draft Picks:  LB Jihaad Campbell, S Andrew Mukuba, DL Ty Robinson

Summary:  Last season I felt that the Eagles were falling apart when we saw all of the fighting on the sidelines.   Well I was certainly wrong about that.  Just like the tush-push for 2025, this team prevailed, got hot in the playoffs, and earned Super Bowl rings against a broken down Chiefs team.  One thing that the Eagles haven’t been low on is talent.  They seem to draft quite well over the past three to four years, and I love their first three picks from the 2025 draft.  The big question now, is can they repeat this performance for the 2025 season? The birds have a new OC in Kevin Patullo.  He has been with the team since 2021.  I have to assume that he learned from two of the good ones over the past three years in Shane Steichen and Kellen Moore.  Hopefully, Kevin forgets about the Brian Johnson era.  The Eagles for 2025 will go through the same pains as most super bowl teams as they have to shed guys who have built themselves value in the market place while trying to recoup in free agency and the draft.  This usually makes a team quite top-heavy as they can’t risk a tough year of injuries.  There will not be as much depth in the defensive line.  They also took a big hit in the secondary.  If all and all goes well, the Eagles will once again win the division, and compete for the 2026 super bowl in Santa Clara California.   I have to expect a solid season, but maybe not quite as good as last year.

My Number:  10.55

Action – Lean Under

Philadelphia Power rating: 6.25

2.  Washington Commanders –

Vegas Win total:  9.5 juiced to the over -125

2024 Wins:  12

Pythagorean Wins:  10.79

Schedule:  Medium – At large games @ Atlanta, vs Seattle, vs Miami (neutral in Madrid Spain)

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses: DT Jonathan Allen, WR Dyami Brown, S Jeremy Chinn, DE Dante Fowler Jr, T Cornelius Lucas, CB Benjamin St-Juste

Key additions: T Laremy Tunsil, DT Javon Kinlaw, S Will Harris, WR Deebo Samuel, CB Jonathan Jones, K Matt Gay, OLB Jake Martin, T Laremy Tunsil

Key draft picks: T Josh Conerly, CB Tre Amos, WR Jalin Lane

Summary:  Please do not look at my projections for the Commanders from last year as it was embarrassingly wrong.  This team not only may have had the best draft from 2024, the coaching staff worked much better together than I anticipated.  In saying that, this team was quite lucky in many cases last year.  The Hail Mary certainly didn’t hurt against a poorly coached Chicago Bears team, having a 78.95% 4th down conversion rate was absolutely against the norm based on twenty three attempts, and the officials not calling the clear roughing the passer in the divisional playoff game against Lions quarterback Jared Goff, which turned into a pick six, certainly made this team look much better than I feel that they actually were.  I hate to say it Washington Fans, but I think that the luck is going to run out this year.  This team had one of the easiest schedule’s from 2024.   Per Warren Sharp, these are the quarterbacks that the Commies fast since week 12.  Backup QB Cooper Rush, Will Levis, <bye week>, backups Jake Haener & Spencer Rattler, backup Kenny Pickett, rookie Michael Penix Jr., and backup Trey Lance.  That stretch was very fortunate.  I think that Washington’s offensive coordinator, Kliff Kingsbury’s tricks are only good for a while before teams start to catch up.  I do not love the signing of Deebo Samuel who has been a head case in San Francisco, and is now entering his twilight years.   Maybe he gets some gadget type plays, but teams will be ready.   I also feel like the Commanders lost more than they have gained on the offensive line and the secondary.   The Jury is still out on the draft,  but I do expect the offensive line to take a step up.  The schedule shows medium for this team this year.  There is good and bad in that.  The good is that they convert an away game to a neutral game in playing the Miami Dolphins in Madrid Spain.  The bad part is that the Commanders have the 3rd worst net-rest advantage at -13 days.   The Commies get two teams off of the bye, and their longest weekly rest will be 4 days.   I feel pretty generous when I come up with 9.55 wins for this team.  I really want to find a 10 to go under their season win total.  I also feel there is a chance they could miss the playoffs.  I am gonna wait on this one.

My number:  9.55

Power Rating: 2.5

Action – None

3.  Dallas Cowboys – 

Vegas win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -160

2024 Wins:  7

Pythagorean Wins:  5.52

Schedule: Medium Hard – at large @ NY Jets, @Carolina, vs Arizona

Schedule Last Year: Medium

Key losses: Coach Mike McCarthey, DE DeMarcus Lawrence, CB Jourdan Louis, WR Brandin Cooks, DE Chauncey Golston, T Chuma Edoga, QB Cooper Rush, ILB Eric Kendricks, DT Linvale Joseph

Key additions: Coach Brian Shottenheimer, DE Solomon Thomas, DE Dante Fowler Jr., G Robert Jones, RB Javonte Williams, DE Payton Turner, LB Jack Sanborn

Key Draft Picks: G Tyler Booker, Edge Donavan Ezeiruaku, CB Shavon Revel, RB Jaydon Blue

Summary:  Your thoughts on Dak Prescott is really all that you have to say about how you rate this team. The Cowboys had some rough injury luck, but in saying that, this team was not exactly ripping it up when Dak was healthy.  Dem boys lost three games in a row before the big injury.  Prescott did play about seven total games last season with a losing record.  The Cowboys have a lot to fix on that offensive line.  They couldn’t block anybody in the run game as well as in the pass.  Drafting Tyler Booker was a good start, but I do not think that they did enough in free agency to address their Center and Right Tackle.  Losing Demarcus Lawrence could hurt this defense some, but they do get Travon Diggs and Micah Parsons back healthy for this year.  The George Pickens trade is certainly a gamble based on his attitude.  Will he be ok playing second fiddle to CeeDee Lamb?   I also think drafting guys like a smaller edge in Ezeiruaku and an injured cornerback from a smaller school in Shavon Revel are certainly gambles.   Dem boy’s draft will either be very good or very bad.   Nothing in the middle.  The coaching hire was certainly a head scratcher for me as I do not think that promoting an offensive coordinator from a losing team is a good move.  I suppose that Jerry Jones just wants to maintain almost total control.  The thing that bugs me some is that Dallas had a season win total last year of 10.5.  The team really didn’t get any worse from offseason to offseason.  Was this number that far off to adjust it all the way down to 7.5?  Had Dak played the whole season, would this team have been playoff contenders?  I think not.  For this season, I feel that the whole outlook for this Texas team has a ton of variance to it.  The Cowboys have my least confident pre-season handicap, so I will have to be close to the middle.  Let’s see what happens the first few games.

My Number: 7.76

Action: No lean

Dallas Power Rating: -1

4. New York Giants –

Vegas Win total:  is 5.5 juiced to the under -130

2024 Wins:  3

Pythagorean Wins:  4.54

Schedule: Hard:  At large games vs @ New Orleans, vs San Francisco, @ New England

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses:  Edge Azeez Ojulari, QB Drew Lock, S Jason Pinnock, CB Adoree Jackson

Key additions:  QB Russell Wilson, CB Paulson Adebo, S Jevon Holland, DE Chauncey Golston, T James Hudson, DT Roy Robertson-Harris, QB Jameis Winston

Key Draft Picks:  Edge Abdul Carter, QB Jaxson Dart, DL Darius Alexander, RB Cam Skattebo

Summary:  Well, the Giants just had to win that game against the Colts to remove them from 1st pick contention.   I mean, maybe it didn’t matter too much if they weren’t caring about getting an early quarterback, but I will at least say that Russell Wilson can do enough to make them slightly better than last season.  The G0men go and pack Jaxson Dart by trading back into the first.   I think that Dart was over-drafted in my opinion, yet may turn out sometime later in this season or in his career.  He will get some meaningful reps later this season because I do not think this team will be in contention facing the hardest schedule in all of football.  The only good news is that this team doesn’t get anyone off of a bye week, but they are only +4 days in net-rest advantage.  I honestly do not know what the organization really thinks of Brian Daboll, but if they win 6+ games, his job may be safe.   I do think that the Giants did nail this past draft, and had a very busy offseason brining in a bunch of free agents.   Maybe not the biggest stars, but guys that will be better than what this team had last year. The Giants should have a great defensive line, but now continue to have a rough linebacker and secondary.   Their easiest games on that brutal schedule is at the Saints and at the Bears.  Getting the 49ers and Green Bay at home could end up losses.   The Giants have such bad luck when it comes to scheduling.  This is clearly the worst draw in the NFL.  I only see four to maybe five wins for an improved team this year.   I have the Giants at 4.27 wins.  I have to take the under.

My Number:  4.27

Action – Under 5.5 wins -130 – 1 star

NY Giants Power Rating: -7

*Blue color means hasn’t signed with a team

NFC South:  The NFC South has once again proven incompetent as ever.  Last season, this division had three pretty bad organizations with one that was above average.   The Tampa Bay Bucs were the only team that looked like they had a pulse when they hit the playoffs. The Atlanta falcons were all hype and no substance with a 40 million dollar a year quarterback that won’t be their starter for 2025, while the Carolina panthers and the New Orleans saints became, must not watch TV.  This season, the NFC South has it a bit easier than last season facing the NFC West as well as the AFC East.   This isn’t exactly easy by any means, but still much better than what they had to deal with last year.  The good news for this division is that they get to play each other twice.

Best Bet: Saints under 6.5 wins -180 – 1 star

Divisional Futures:  (DK) Buccaneers 100, Falcons +240, Panthers +400, Saints +1000

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 

Vegas Win Total:  9.5 juiced to the under -115

2024 Wins:  10

Pythagorean Wins:  11.3

Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games @ Houston, vs Philadelphia, @Detroit

Schedule Last Year: Medium

Key losses: C Robert Hainsey, S Jordan Whitehead

Key additions:  OLB Hassan Reddick, P Riley Dixon, RT Charlie Heck, ILB Anthony Walker Jr

Key draft picks: WR Emeka Egbuka, CB Benjamin Morrison, CB Jacob Parrish, and a bunch of dudes.

Summary:  If anyone over the past two seasons underestimated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, then they most likely paid for it.   This Bucs team continues to be very solid, but I also think that they are getting a little bit older.  Mike Evans continues to be the go-to receiver there while Chris Godwin can’t seem to stay healthy.   The question is how much longer can these guys be productive?  I do like some of the things that this team did in free agency and the draft.   The Bucs focused on defense where they found some dudes that can step it up.  In saying that, I do not think that this team did enough to beat the top teams in the NFC.  If injuries, unlike last year go their way, the Bucs may have an opportunity for the 1 seed in the playoffs.  That’s right.   A 1 seed!  That should be the goal for these guys with a very favorable schedule. Tampa Bay finished the season ranking 5th in offensive EPA and 17th on defense. This is why this team focused their offseason on that side of the ball.   This defense ranked 27th in opponent pass EPA, making that the reason that the organization went cornerbacks in this draft.  I like the moves.  This Bucs team didn’t have good injury luck yet with all of the injuries that they have sustained on offense & defense, yet still won 10 games.  A big question mark for me is how the Bucs will do without starting center Robert Hainsey.  Graham Barton was a high draft pick who steps on in.  I think that the Buccaneers should win quite a few games this season.

My number is: 10.65 wins

Action:  Over 9.5 wins – .5 stars (FD)

Tampa Bay’s Power Rating: 2.75

2.  Atlanta Falcons – 

Vegas Win total: 7.5 juiced to the over -140

2024 Wins: 8

Pythagorean Wins: 7.61

Schedule: Easy – At large games @ Minnesota, vs Washington, vs Indianapolis (neutral in Berlin Germany)

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses: DT Grady Jarrett, DT Eddie Goldman, OLB Lorenzo Carter, C Drew Dalman, WR Rondale Moore, OLB Matt Judon, S Justin Simmons

Key additions: LB Divine Deablo, Edge Leonard Floyd, DE Morgan Fox, CB Michael Ford, QB Easton Stick

Key draft picks: Edge Jalon Walker, Edge James Pearce, S Xavier Watts, S Billy Bowman, T Jack Nelson

Summary:   Last year, I was pretty upset with the Falcons for signing Kurt Cousins and Drafting Michael Penix.  Strange how it worked out for them, yet still quite costly. Now, we get to watch this team pay a backup north of 140 millions dollars.   Michael Penix Jr hasn’t played in a lot of games, but for what he accomplished, he looks the part of a starting quarterback in the national football league.   I thought that this team certainly lost some big men in the trenches, but I also think that they did wonderful in free agency and in the Draft.   The diry-birds drafted two beast edge rushers from the SEC as well as, maybe, the best safety in in the draft in Xavier Watts.   My biggest problem with the Falcons is the coaching.  Raheem Morris has been less than adequate as he always seems to make the wrong decision in the critical moments of each game.  This year, Atlanta does benefit from a schedule that removes an away game and puts it in Berlin Germany for a neutral venue vs the Colts.  I expect the Falcons to have a solid run game utilizing Bijan Robinson better now that Michael Penix Jr. should be able to open up the passing game.  Their biggest hole will be the defense against the run.  Losing defensive tackles Grady Jarrett, Eddie Goldman, and Lorenzo Carter at linebacker, could be rough when going against some of the better running backs in this division like Bucky Irving, and Alvin Kamara.  In saying that, the Falcons upside is high.  They could be be very good, and steal this division from Tampa Bay, I just can’t trust this coach enough to bet it.

My Number: 8.81

Atlanta’s Power Rating:  .5

Action: Lean win division, lean over 7.5 wins and lean make the playoffs

3.  Carolina Panthers –

Vegas Win Total:   6.5 juiced to the over -125

2024 Wins: 5

Pythagorean Wins: 4.08

Schedule: Medium Easy – At large games @ Jacksonville, vs Dallas, @ Green Bay

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key losses: S Xavier Woods, CB Linnie Johnson, DE Jadeveon Clowney, OLB Shaq Thompson

Key additions: S Trevon Moehrig, DT Tershawn Wharton, DT Bobby Brown, OLB Patrick Jones

Key draft picks: WR Tetairoa McMillan, Edge Nic Scourton, Edge Princley Umanmielen, RB Trevor Etienne, S Lathan Ransom, WR Jimmy Horn and some dudes

Summary:  last season, I found it somewhat amusing watching the Carolina Panthers win two of their last three games to sneak into third place in the division, and to crush any of those under 4.5 season win totals that were so popular before the 2024 NFL season began.  My apologies if that was one of you readers.  This team took the division rival Atlanta Falcons straight out of the playoffs during the final game, and I think that this was quite rewarding to this organization.  In saying that, the Panthers Pythagorean wins were the league lowest at 4.08 and this team was worse on paper than their lowly five wins had shown.   One thing that I do believe is that quarterback Bryce Young still may have some life in him.  He knows that everyone looks at him as a bust, but I have noticed that he works hard and I think that he may be able to turn it around.  The pressure is off and he is now playing with house money.  I like how this team signed some defensive help in the trenches as well as drafting some pass rush.   My big concern remains on the offensive line, that last season, was quite below average.  My secondary concerns basically are IN the secondary as well as the back end of the defense.  The linebackers are basically unproven, and the passing defense ranked dead last in drop-back-EPA and success rate.   The Panthers have a lot of growing to do, but they at least have a schedule that isn’t too daunting.

My Number: 5.54

Carolina Power Rating: -5.5

Action:  Lean under

4. New Orleans Saints – 

Vegas Win Total: 6.5 Juiced Towards the under -180

2024 Wins: 5

Pythagorean Wins: 6.82

Schedule: Easy – At large games vs NY Giants, @ Chicago, @ Tennessee

Schedule Last Year: Easy

Key Losses:  Coach Dennis Allen, QB Derek Carr, CB Paulson Adebo, WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, S Will Harris, DE Payton Turner, ILB Willie Gay, RB Jamaal Williams

Key additions:  Coach Kellen Moore, S Justin Reid, WR Brandon Cooks, CB Isaac Yadom, T Dillon Radunz

Key draft picks:  T Kelvin Banks, QB Tyler Schough, DL Veron Broughton

Summary:  The Saints make me think of the song “won’t get fooled again”.  After this team blew away the Cowboys inking a 2-0 start, they managed to lose six games in a row.  It got worse as the season progressed with losses to the Panthers, The Raiders, and the Falcons.   This team is in total rebuild mode as two of their impact players in offensive Tackle Ryan Ramcyzk and quarterback Derek Carr retired.   So what do they do?  They reach for a low rated quarterback in Tyler Shough in the second round.  Say what you want about Shedeur Sanders, but I do know that he is certainly a better prospect then Shough.  The biggest change was obviously the hiring of Kellen Moore, who proved to be a pretty good offensive coordinator with the Cowboys and the Eagles.  The big question is, how will Kellen be as a head coach with low talent?   I mean, it can’t be good.  The Saints get a fourth place schedule which is listed as the third easiest in football, but when you diver deeper, you notice that the Saints have the second worst net rest advantage at -14 days getting three times coming off of bye weeks.  OUCH.  Two good things I will say about the Saints is that they had a large Pythagorean win total last year of 6.82.  This means they were a lot better than their five wins.  I will also say that they had the second worst injury luck behind the Lions, but the fact that they have no decent quarterback in a rebuilding year is very glaring.   Kellen Moore will be on his honeymoon in his first head coaching year, and this team won’t win seven games.  Heck they may not win five.

My number is: 5.41 wins

Action:  Under 6.5 wins -180 – 1 star

New Orleans Power Rating: -7.5

*Blue color means hasn’t signed with a team