Cincinnati (17-14, 7-13 Conf.) vs Oklahoma State (15-16, 7-13 Conf.)
Spread: Cincinnati -7.5
Total: 138.5
The Big 12 tournament kicks off Tuesday in Kansas City with an 11:30 AM matchup between the 13 seed Cincinnati Bearcats and the 12 seed Oklahoma State Cowboys. These 2 teams met just 3 days ago in Stillwater in the season finale, which saw the Cowboys defend their home court with a 78-67 victory. Oklahoma State enters the week needing to run the table and win the tournament in order to get into the dance, while Cincinnati will likely need at the very least an appearance in the championship game on Saturday in order to have a chance at an at-large bid.
Key Stats to Consider:
Oklahoma State ranks 13th in the Big 12 and 262nd in the country in 3 pt. FG% at 32.1%
Cincinnati ranks 6th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency at 0.969 and Oklahoma State ranks 14th in the conference at 1.038.
Oklahoma State is 2nd in the Big 12 in possessions per game at 73.4 and Cincinnati is last in the conference at 67.4
Oklahoma State is 3-13 outside of Gallagher-Iba Arena this season with wins against Miami, Tulsa, and Seton Hall
Thoughts
This matchup presents one of the biggest contrasts in style that the Big 12 has to offer. Cincinnati plays at the slowest pace in the league and is most comfortable in a half-court defensive style game, while the Cowboys want to get up and run and push the pace on their opponents. In Saturday’s matchup, Oklahoma State jumped out to an 18 point 1st half lead and was able to control the pace of the game the entire way as Cincinnati was forced to play catch up from that point on. The Cowboys were a scorching 7-9 from 3-point range and were able to get to the FT line 17 times compared to only 7 attempts from the Bearcats. The Cowboys have struggled from behind the 3-point line all season and it would be very surprising to see them put up similar numbers again today against one of the better defenses in the league. If this is the case, I think we’ll see Cincinnati do a much better job of dictating the pace to their liking and making life much more difficult on the Cowboys 2 leading scorers Bryce Thompson and Abou Ousmane, who both put up big numbers on Saturday. The Bearcats return 6 of their core rotation players from last year’s team which won 2 games in the 2024 Big 12 tournament. They should enter Kansas City this year with experience and confidence to build on some of the success that they had on this court last year.
On paper Cincinnati is a very tough and uncomfortable matchup for Oklahoma State. Saturday didn’t show that due to the Cowboys shooting 78% from 3-point range and getting to the line 10 more times than Cincinnati but now that the Bearcats have had a few days to make some defensive adjustments and the Cowboys are away from the only arena they’ve been able to find success in this year, I think we’ll see the Bearcats bounce back and do enough to keep the Cowboys out of arms reach and cover this number.
We are giving away $500 in prizes to the top 4 finishers in this challenge. All you need to do is wright a 5 star review and take a screen shot and send it to INFO@TheOddsBreakers.com. If you already have the review then you can just retweet the podcast and send that screen shot in as well. 1st place will be $275, 2nd place will be $125, 3rd place will be $75 and 4th will be $25. Get your brackets in by Thursday March 20th before the 1st game at 12AM Eastern, 9AM Pacific! Best of luck everyone and enjoy the tournament!
SEC – Florida to win the SEC Tournament +340 – 1 star – This tournament will be played at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville Tenn. – Florida is the best team in the SEC and the second best team in college basketball. I see value here mainly because they are being priced as the second favorite behind Auburn as the two seed. Looking at the other top teams like Auburn, Tennessee, and Alabama, I believe their focus will turn to the NCAA tournament next week while the Gators and their fans need something to feel good about. Being that this conference is so strong, I will say that it won’t shock me to see 5 other teams win it if Florida doesn’t
Big 10 – Maryland to win the Big 10 tournament +450 – .5 stars – Wisconsin ML rollover – .5 stars – I think that this Tournament is up in the air. Michigan State isn’t that strong of a 1 seed, but on the weaker side of the bracket, if anyone can give Sparty problems it is definitely Bucky who has the most efficient offense in the Big 10. I will say that this Wisconsin team needs to get hot if they want to go far in the post season. I feel that Maryland is the most complete team, yet on the harder side of the bracket with a now healthy Illinois team and last year’s champion in Purdue, with the Twin towers of Michigan.
Big 12 – Baylor to win the Big 12 tournament +5000 – .25 stars – Texas Tech ML rollover – .5 stars – Played at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City. I think the price on Baylor is wrong here and that is the main reason for the small play. They will end up facing Texas Tech if they get far enough, and I think one of these teams will emerge from the bottom side of the bracket. Baylor has the best offensive scheme under Will Wade, and Texas Tech has the strongest team now that they are healthy. Arizona is a good team, but not a great team. Houston will have their hands full up top with Iowa State if it’s not BYU.
Mountain west – Colorado State +440 – .25 stars – The Thomas Mack Center is Las Vegas – Colorado State is the hottest team and that win at Boise on friday made some noise. All these teams tend to suck in general when they are away from home. The 1 seed in New Mexico is already in the big dance, so their total motivation is in question. I think somebody steals a bit here.
A10 – Dayton to win at +500 – 1 star – This tournament will be at Capital One Arena in Washington DC. I do not love the one seed in VCU as their offense tends to sputter, and the two seed in George Mason has a very bad offense. The Flyers just went to VCU and pimp-slapped them on the road on Friday. Guys like Malachi Smith and Zed Key are finally showing up. Dayton played well in Maui almost beating UNC and Iowa State. Then beating UCONN. Dayton has been inconsistent, but their road to the Championship game isn’t all that bad.
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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
We have a great show for you today! Tony George @TGeorgesports from Docs Sports @DocsSports is back to break down the big conference tournaments for the week! First, Kiev talks about our March Madness Survivor and Bracket Tournaments over at www.theSZN.com/OB! Make sure that you get in for the fun! Next, Tony comes on and the guys get right into the top 6 teams in college basketball. Then, Tony and Kiev give out a few sleepers for the big dance. After that, the boys talk about 15 conference tournaments with a bunch of Free Plays and picks! Next, Tony and Kiev give out their best bets at the end of the show. Finally, Kiev recaps our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Key Player: Brice Williams, averaging 20.4 points per game
Recent Performance: The Cornhuskers are on a four-game losing streak, including a double-overtime loss to Ohio State.
Team Stats:
Points: 75.6 PPG
Rebounds: 35.2 RPG
Assists: 14.3 APG
Steals: 6.8 SPG
Blocks: 4.1 BPG
Total Turnovers: 12.5 TPG
Field Goal %: 45.6%
Free Throw %: 74.7%
Three Point %: 32.9%
Iowa Hawkeyes:
Record: 15-15 (6-13 Big Ten)
Key Player: Payton Sandfort, averaging 16.1 points per game
Recent Performance: The Hawkeyes have lost five of their last six games, including a recent loss to Michigan State.
Team Stats:
Points: 82.3 PPG
Rebounds: 37.1 RPG
Assists: 15.2 APG
Steals: 7.1 SPG
Blocks: 3.9 BPG
Total Turnovers: 11.8 TPG
Field Goal %: 48.6%
Free Throw %: 70.9%
Three Point %: 37.6%
Prediction: Given the high tempo of both teams and their defensive struggles, it’s likely that we see a lot of points. The fast pace of play and the offensive capabilities of both teams make it a strong possibility that these teams will exceed the total. Bad teams at the end of the basketball season tend to not play a heck of a lot of defense. The Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers are both known for their fast-paced style of play, which is reflected in their KenPom pace numbers. Iowa ranks 40th in the nation with an adjusted tempo of 70.3 possessions per game, while Nebraska ranks 51st with an adjusted tempo of 69.0 possessions per game. This game hit the over 7 out of the last 8 times.
We have a great show for you today! Brian Edwards @VegasBEdwards from Major Wager and Vegas Insider is back to break down a huge weekend of sports! First, Kiev talks about some great contests that we have brewing up at the SZN and CBS Sports. Next, Brian comes on and the guys start talking SEC and Badgers. Then, we get into some buy low and sell high teams for the immediate future. After that, Brian and Kiev get into some of the biggest games of the weekend with some Free Plays. Next, the boys get into some UFC 313 with some more leans and plays that they like for the weekend. Finally, Kiev recaps our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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If you want to subscribe to support us and get some very frequent winners please Click Here to become a member of The OddsBreakers and gain access to premium plays BEFORE the line moves! Or, you can visit theoddsbreakers.com and click shop and pick one of our great handicappers including Kiev O’Neil @OBKiev at only $84 per month on a 1 year subscription!
You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help us out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!
USE PROMO CODE Basketball2025 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASKETBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here:https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2025
Sick of headaches in the morning after drinking? Get 20% off of our gummies that help get rid of those pesky hangovers right here! https://liqure.com/discount/ODDS
To get Kiev's premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, pleaseClick here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business!
Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records!
56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!
2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U
2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U
2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U
63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI
55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI
56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U
55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI
63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!
54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI
38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI
62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Iowa State vs Kansas State +6.5 O/U 140.5
Matchup Details
Date: Saturday, March 8, 2025
Time: 1:30 p.m. EST
Location: Bramlage Coliseum, Manhattan, Kansas
Broadcast: CBS
Team Statistics
Statistic
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas State Wildcats
Record
22-8 (13-7 Big 12)
15-15 (9-10 Big 12)
Points per Game
80.4
68.8
Opponent Points per Game
69.8
69.6
Field Goal %
43.8%
42.1%
3-Point %
–
–
Free Throw %
–
–
Rebounds per Game
29.8
30.6
Assists per Game
13.7
14.2
Steals per Game
8.9
7.6
Blocks per Game
3.6
3.4
Key Players
Iowa State Cyclones:
Keshon Gilbert: Averaging 13.8 points, 4.3 assists, and 1.8 steals per game.
Curtis Jones: Averaging 12.3 points over the last 10 games.
Kansas State Wildcats:
David N’Guessan: Averaging 13.1 points and 7.2 rebounds per game.
Brendan Hausen: Averaging 2.4 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games.
Recent Form
Iowa State Cyclones:
Last 10 games: 5-5
Averaging 72.8 points, 29.8 rebounds, 13.7 assists, 8.9 steals, and 3.6 blocks per game.
Opponents’ average points per game: 69.8
Kansas State Wildcats:
Last 10 games: 6-4
Averaging 68.8 points, 30.6 rebounds, 14.2 assists, 7.6 steals, and 3.4 blocks per game.
Opponents’ average points per game: 67.9
Key Factors for Kansas State
Home Court Advantage: Kansas State has been solid at home, with a 10-4 record at Bramlage Coliseum. The Wildcats’ familiarity with their home court and the support of their fans can provide a significant boost.
Recent Momentum: Kansas State has won two of their last three games, including a convincing 65-49 road win against Cincinnati. This recent success can build confidence and momentum heading into the matchup against Iowa State.
Defensive Prowess: Kansas State is ninth in the Big 12 in limiting opponent scoring, allowing just 69.6 points per game. If they can maintain their defensive intensity and disrupt Iowa State’s offensive rhythm, they can keep the game within reach.
Key Players: David N’Guessan, Kansas State’s leading scorer and rebounder, will be crucial in this matchup. His ability to score and dominate the boards can help the Wildcats stay competitive. Additionally, Brendan Hausen’s recent form, averaging 2.4 made 3-pointers over the last 10 games, can provide the necessary offensive spark.
Challenges for Iowa State
Inconsistency: Iowa State has struggled with consistency, losing three of their last four games. This recent slump could be an opportunity for Kansas State to capitalize on their opponent’s vulnerabilities.
Injuries: Iowa State has been dealing with injuries to key players, leading to some inconsistencies in their performance. If these issues persist, it could hinder their ability to dominate the game.
Pressure: As a higher-ranked team, Iowa State faces the pressure of maintaining their status and securing a favorable position in the NCAA Tournament. This pressure can sometimes lead to mistakes and lapses in focus, which Kansas State can exploit.
Prediction:
While Iowa State is the favorite, Kansas State has the tools and factors in their favor to keep the game close. By leveraging their home court advantage, maintaining defensive intensity, and capitalizing on Iowa State’s recent struggles, the Wildcats can make this a competitive matchup. Kansas State is getting healthy at the right time as their best player Coleman Hawkins has returned to action helping lead this team to a tough road win at Cincinnati. Being that the Clones just came off of an overtime loss against BYU, their hopes for becoming a four seed in their tournament have disappeared. Kansas State will have some big advantages down low scoring near the basket as well as offensive rebounding. Iowa State shoots only 50.8% effective FG on the road. Kansas State shoots 51.5% effective FG at home. Take the Cats.
Kansas State +6.5 – 2.5 stars Kansas State ML +235 – .5 stars
Bonus Play – Wisconsin -10.5 – Penn State’s season is over as they now will not make it to the big 10 tournament. They are 2-8 on the road. Wisconsin needs to keep that 4 seed with a big win today on Senior Day. Take Sconnie and lay those points.
UCF (15-14, 6-12 Big 12) vs Oklahoma State (14-15, 6-12 Big 12)
Spread: UCF -6.5
Total: 165.5
The UCF Knights play host Wednesday night to the Oklahoma State Cowboys in a game that features two teams towards the bottom of the Big 12 trying to gain some momentum going into Kansas City next week. The Cowboys are aiming to complete a season sweep of the Knights, having secured a 104-95 win in their February 19th matchup in Stillwater.
Key Stats to Consider
UCF and Oklahoma State rank 1st and 2nd in the Big 12 in possessions per game with UCF averaging 75.8 and Oklahoma State averaging 73.2
UCF ranks 5th in the Big 12 in turnovers per possession at 16.1% while Oklahoma State ranks 15th in the Big 12 in that category at 18.5%
Oklahoma St. is 0-9 on the road in the Big 12 with an average margin of defeat of 16.2 points.
Thoughts
The first matchup between these two teams saw the Cowboys play arguably their best game of the season. They scored a season high 104 points and forced 20 turnovers leading to 26 points off those turnovers, while only turning the ball over 7 times themselves. These numbers should come back down to Earth tonight as the Knights have been one of the better teams in the Big 12 this year at taking care of the ball and will be back in Addition Financial Arena where they’ve won their last 2 home contests. Senior point guard Darius Johnson will be playing his final home game for the Knights after a 4 year career that propelled him towards the top of the all-time school leaderboard in many statistical categories. Johnson should be primed and ready for this matchup that presents a great opportunity for him to have one of his best performances of the season and it’s hard to imagine him and the Knights experiencing the same turnover woes that cost them the first matchup in Stillwater. The Cowboys have been pretty inept on the road all season and I have no reason to believe that this won’t continue tonight in a road game 1,300 miles away from home against a UCF team that’s motivated to send their seniors off on a high note.
The total in this game is set at a staggering 165.5 due to the rapid pace that these two teams play at. With the high volume of scoring opportunities that are expected in this game tonight there should be plenty of opportunities for the Knights to put their foot on the gas and run away with this one.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge marks the tenth event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season and the second event of the “Florida Swing.”
Pre-Tournament Storylines:
Joe Highsmith wins the Cognizant Classic
Joe Highsmith captured his first PGA TOUR victory at last week’s Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, becoming the first player to win after making the cut on the number (5-under) since Brandt Snedeker at the 2016 Farmers Insurance Open. Highsmith is the third first-time winner on TOUR this season, joining Brian Campbell (Mexico Open at VidantaWorld) and Thomas Detry (WM Phoenix Open).
Scottie Scheffler looks to defend his title at Bay Hill
World No. 1 and reigning FedExCup champion Scottie Scheffler is seeking his first official victory since the 2024 TOUR Championship. He returns this week to defend his title after his dominant five-stroke victory in 2024.
PGA WEST (Nicklaus) – TifEagle bermudagrass .110” – The American Express
PGA National – TifEagle bermudagrass .120” – Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches
Port Royal Golf Course – TifEagle Bermudagrass .130″ – Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Sea Island Golf Club – TifEagle bermudagrass – RSM Classic
Comparable Average Green Size (7,500 sq. ft.):
Riviera Country Club – 7,500 sq. ft. – The Genesis Invitational
TPC Summerlin – 7,400 sq. ft. – Shriners Children’s Open
TV Information (all times ET):
Round 1: Thursday, March 6th, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 2: Friday, March 7th, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 7:30 AM – 2:00 PM
Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 3: Saturday, March 8th, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 8:00 AM – 12:30 PM
Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM
Round 4: Sunday, March 9th, 2025
ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 8:00 AM – 12:30 PM
Golf Channel – 12:30 PM – 2:30 PM
NBC – 2:30 PM – 6:00 PM
Weather:
Course/ Tournament History:
The Arnold Palmer Invitational is held annually at the Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Orlando, Florida. Originally established in 1966 as the Florida Citrus Open, the tournament moved to Bay Hill in 1979 and was renamed in honor of golf legend Arnold Palmer, who owned the club and served as its iconic host until his passing in 2016. Known for its challenging course setup, firm greens, and demanding closing stretch, the event attracts the world’s top golfers each year. Winners not only receive a coveted red cardigan sweater — a tribute to Palmer’s signature style — but also a three-year PGA Tour exemption, compared to the standard two years for most tour events.
Bay Hill Club and Lodge, located in Orlando, Florida, was built in 1961, designed by architect Dick Wilson, and quickly gained a reputation for its challenging layout and scenic beauty. Arnold Palmer first visited Bay Hill in 1965, fell in love with the course, and officially purchased the property in 1974. Palmer made numerous design changes over the years, shaping Bay Hill into a world-class golf destination. The Championship Course, a par-72 stretching over 7,400 yards, is famous for its demanding fairways, thick rough, and the iconic 18th hole that tests players’ precision and nerve. Beyond the course, Bay Hill offers luxurious lodging, fine dining, and a rich atmosphere steeped in Palmer’s legacy.
62, Andy Bean (Round 2, 1981), Greg Norman (Round 2, 1984), Adam Scott (Round 1, 2014)
Largest Margin of Victory (Bay Hill Club and Lodge):
11 Strokes – Tiger Woods (2003)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Originally designed by Dick Wilson in 1961, Bay Hill Club and Lodge boasts a traditional Par 72 layout comprising four Par 3s, ten Par 4s, and four Par 5s.
Spanning a formidable 7,466 yards, Bay Hill ranks among the PGA Tour’s lengthiest courses. While distance is advantageous, precision off the tee is equally essential, with the penal 3-inch ryegrass rough demanding accuracy. The course features narrow fairways, emphasizing the significance of proficient tee shots for contenders. With an ample average green size of 7,500 square feet, the course offers a fair challenge. However, in the past, holding greens has proven challenging, primarily due to approach shots often exceeding 200 yards. This year, the greens are expected to be more receptive, benefiting from recent rainfall.
Bay Hill presents an array of hazards, including 84 bunkers, placing it 11th on the list of courses with the most bunkers players will encounter this year. Additionally, water comes into play on nine holes, ranking it ninth in water hazards on the PGA Tour. Furthermore, the forecast predicts significant wind, particularly on Saturday and Sunday, adding an extra layer of difficulty. With previous scoring averages indicating its challenging nature, Bay Hill stands as one of the toughest courses players will encounter all season.
The four Par 3’s range between 199 yards and 231 yards. In terms of stats, the majority (two) of the Par 3’s range between 200 – 225 yards. Last year, all of the Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.
No. 2, 231 yards, Par 3: From the tee the second hole appears long and demanding. It is. #2 is 231 yards from the Palmer tees. A smart shot is to favor the right side of the green. If you want you can let the slope help you onto the green. Missing the green left leaves you with a challenging up and down. Once you are on the green you must negotiate a green that tilts right to left.
No. 17, 221 yards, Par 3: The 17th hole is a par 3 that measures 221 yards from the Palmer tees. The putting surface has the beach bunker short of the green. In addition there are bunkers left and long left of the green. In front and wrapping around the right of the green there is water. A tee shot that finds the green is well played and increases your chances for a par.
There are ten Par 4’s at Bay Hill with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. No. 13 is the shortest listed at 382 yards with the longest being No. 9, playing 480 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 9 (+0.299).
No. 3, 434 yards, Par 4: Hole #3 is an attractive par 4 that measures 434 yards from the Palmer tees. Finding the fairway off the tee is the first step to securing a par. There is a lake to the left of the fairway and to the right is thick rough. The green is guarded by water left and bunkers left, right and long. Two accurate shots could offer you a reasonable chance for birdie.
No. 18, 458 yards, Par 4: The 72nd hole of the Arnold Palmer Invitational Presented By MasterCard, the 18th hole is a par 4 458 yards from the Palmer tees. There is OB along the entire left side of this demanding par 4. To the right of the driving area is thick rough. Ideally, the tee shot should be played left of center. From the left side of the fairway you have options depending on the hole location. If your tee shot finds the rough the smart play is to play towards the left front of the green. If you choose to play aggressive there are bunkers left and long. If you have ever watched the Arnold Palmer Invitational you already knew about the pond guarding the front of the putting surface.
There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 4, No. 6, No. 12, and No. 16. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2024. The easiest hole on the course last year was No. 16 with a scoring average of 4.48.
No. 4, 561 yards, Par 5: The fourth hole is a par 5 that measures 561 yards from the Palmer tees. It plays uphill with a creek and OB running along the right side of the hole. It is reachable in two for the longest hitters. Avoid the bunker on the left side of the fairway if you choose to lay up. Regardless of whether you go for the green in two or not the left side of the green is shallow in depth. A miss to the right of the green drops off sharply leaving a difficult up and down. Accuracy is a must into this elevated target if you expect a par or better.
No. 6, 555 yards, Par 5: The 6th hole at Bay Hill is one of the most recognizable holes on the course. It is a par 5 that measures 555 yards from the Palmer tees. With three aggressive swings at conservative targets a birdie opportunity awaits. An overly aggressive swing at an aggressive target could lead to double digits. From the tee you should aim towards the fairway bunkers. If you are playing your second shot from the fairway aim towards the bunker on the right side of the fairway. The green is deep so double check your yardage for your third shot. A par or better is within reach.
The Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place at Bay Hill Club and Lodge. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Driving Distance (Yards)
284.00
278.08
Driving Accuracy
62%
64%
GIR Percentage
66%
60%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
30.50
Scrambling Percentage
58%
57%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.56
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Bay Hill Club and Lodge.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Taylor Pendrith
Daniel Berger
Taylor Moore
Davis Thompson
Rory McIlroy
Aldrich Potgieter
Robert MacIntyre
Sam Stevens
Isaiah Salinda
Strokes Gained: Approach
Excellent approach play has been a key factor in determining success at this week’s tournament. Over the past five editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, every winner has ranked 18th or better in Strokes Gained: Approach amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Justin Thomas
J.J. Spaun
Sepp Straka
Nick Taylor
Maverick McNealy
Scottie Scheffler
Lucas Glover
Tommy Fleetwood
Tom Kim
Jake Knapp
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The green complexes at Bay Hill Club and Lodge are TifEagle bermudagrass. Over the past three editions of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, every winner has ranked 17th or better in Strokes Gained: Putting amongst the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Jacob Bridgeman
Collin Morikawa
Thomas Detry
Sam Burns
Maverick McNealy
Russell Henley
Max Greyserman
Hideki Matsuyama
Denny McCarthy
Matthieu Pavon
Par 3 Scoring: 200-225 Yards
Two of the four Par 3’s at Bay Hill range between 200-225 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Maverick McNealy
Xander Schauffle
Nick Dunlap
Aldrich Potgieter
Sam Burns
Matt Fitzpatrick
Brian Campbell
Austin Eckroat
Lucas Glover
Min Woo Lee
Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
Five of the ten Par 4’s at Bay Hill range between 450-500 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Xander Schauffele
Daniel Berger
Justin Thomas
Sam Stevens
Nick Taylor
Alex Smalley
J.J. Spaun
Joe Highsmith
Russell Henley
Michael Kim
Par 5 Scoring: 550-600 Yards
Three of the four Par 5’s at Bay Hill range between 550-600 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Sepp Straka
Taylor Moore
Alex Smalley
Si Woo Kim
Taylor Pendrith
J.T. Poston
Lee Hodges
Jake Knapp
Adam Scott
Billy Horschel
Driving Distance Gained
Bay Hill Club & Lodge is one of the longest courses on Tour playing over 7,400 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Aldrich Potgieter
Rory McIlroy
Min Woo Lee
Cameron Young
Byeong Hun An
Taylor Pendrith
Max Greyserman
Ludvig Aberg
Isaiah Salinda
Xander Schauffele
Bogey Avoidance
Bay Hill ranks among the most challenging courses on the PGA Tour. Patience will be key this week as players navigate the layout and capitalize on limited scoring chances. Throughout the event, players must strive to minimize any black numbers scores on their cards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Xander Schauffele
Sam Stevens
Michael Kim
J.J. Spaun
Justin Thomas
Daniel Berger
Brian Harman
Scottie Scheffler
Alex Smalley
Hideki Matsuyama
Scrambling Gained
Players who excel at getting up and down from tough spots gain a significant edge in avoiding bogeys and keeping their rounds on track. With smaller-than-average greens and the unpredictable nature of Poa annua surfaces, even the best iron players frequently miss their targets. Skilled scramblers can turn difficult situations into par saves, gaining strokes on the field while others struggle.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Brian Campbell
Harris English
Michael Kim
Patrick Rodgers
Alex Smalley
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Wyndham Clark
Andrew Novak
Sam Stevens
Daniel Berger
Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
Bay Hill Club & Lodge sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 200+ yard range compared to the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Denny McCarthy
Xander Schauffele
Max Greyserman
Akshay Bhatia
Kris Ventura
Viktor Hovland
Nick Dunlap
Ludvig Aberg
Taylor Pendrith
Tom Hoge
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Data Golf Course History Tool suggests that past success at Bay Hill Club & Lodge has been a strong predictor of future performance in this tournament.
Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total at Bay Hill Club & Lodge):
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy
Sungjae Im
Max Homa
Corey Conners
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Harris English
Keegan Bradley
Viktor Hovland
Chris Kirk
The Field:
This year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational will feature a total of 72 competitors. Among them are eighteen of the top twenty players in the Official World Golf Ranking.
Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Current FedExCup Points List (projected thru Cognizant Classic)
Top 30 OWGR – PGA TOUR Members (projected thru Cognizant Classic)
Top 50 on Prior Year’s FedExCup Points List
Aon Swing 5 (projected through the Cognizant Classic)
Aon Next 10 (projected through the Cognizant Classic)
Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Scottie Scheffler (2024, 2022), Rory McIlroy (2018), Jason Day (2016)
Debutants in the Field:
Akshay Bhatia, Aldrich Potgieter, Andrew Novak, Brian Campbell, Harry Hall, Isaiah Salinda, Jackson Koivun, Max Greyserman, Nicolas Echavarria, Rafael Campos, Samuel Stevens
Exemptions:
Rafael Campos – Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Mackenzie Hughes – Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Jackson Koivun – Unrestricted Exemption – Palmer Cup Award Winner
Min Woo Lee – Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Justin Rose – Sponsor Exemptions – Members not otherwise exempt
Recent Horses for Courses (Bay Hill Club and Lodge):
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Golfer
Events Played
SG: Total (Event)
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Scottie Scheffler
4
+45.71
WON
T4
WON
–
T15
Rory McIlroy
10
+36.87
T21
T2
T13
T10
T5
Sungjae Im
6
+30.91
T18
T21
T20
T21
3
Max Homa
5
+29.91
T8
T14
T17
T10
T24
Keegan Bradley
13
+23.89
T36
T10
T11
T10
T42
Harris English
12
+25.73
T21
T2
–
T26
T9
Viktor Hovland
6
+20.91
T36
T10
T2
T49
T42
Chris Kirk
12
+19.26
T44
T39
T5
T8
–
Will Zalatoris
4
+18.29
T4
T53
T38
T10
–
Russell Henley
8
+16.09
T4
T53
T10
Matthew Fitzpatrick
10
+26.19
MC
T14
T9
T10
T9
Corey Conners
6
+27.94
T18
T21
T11
3
MC
Cameron Young
3
+14.07
T36
T10
T13
–
–
Justin Thomas
3
+9.92
T12
T21
–
–
–
Recent Donkeys for Courses (Bay Hill Club and Lodge):
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Golfer
Events Played
SG: Total (Event)
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
Justin Rose
19
-14.30
MC
MC
MC
WD
MC
Sepp Straka
5
-23.74
T57
MC
MC
MC
MC
Nicolai Hojgaard
2
-5.59
MC
–
MC
–
–
JT Poston
4
-19.00
55
–
–
MC
MC
Min Woo Lee
3
-20.23
T44
MC
MC
–
–
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2024: Scottie Scheffler (-15)
Price: 11-2
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler
1st
1st
12th
1st
5th
2023: Kurt Kitayama (-9)
Price: 200-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Kurt Kitayama
42nd
14th
18th
18th
2nd
2022: Scottie Scheffler (-5)
Price: 16-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Scottie Scheffler
48th
8th
1st
28th
17th
2021: Bryson Dechambeau (-11)
Price: 12-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Bryson Dechambeau
1st
2nd
9th
30th
21st
2020: Tyrrell Hatton (-5)
Price: 55-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Tyrrell Hatton
24th
5th
2nd
27th
15th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Scottie Scheffler
T10 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
T3 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
T6 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
T17 – The American Express (PGA)
T5 – The Sentry (PGA)
2023: Kurt Kitayama
MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
T23 – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
T29 – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (PGA)
MC – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
T73 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
2022: Scottie Scheffler
T7 – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
WON – WM Phoenix Open (PGA)
T20 – Farmers Insurance Open (PGA)
T25 – The American Express (PGA)
2 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
2021: Bryson Dechambeau
T22 – WGC-Workday Championship (PGA)
MC – The Genesis Invitational (PGA)
T18 – Saudi International (DPWT)
T7 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
T34 – The Masters (MAJ)
2020: Tyrrell Hatton
T6 – WGC-Mexico Championship (PGA)
T14 – WGC-HSBC Champions (PGA)
T6 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
46 – DP World Tour Championship, Dubai (DPWT)
WON – Turkish Airlines Open (DPWT)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Scottie Scheffler
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
2023
2022
2020
Scottie Scheffler
T4
WON
T15
2023: Kurt Kitayama
Tournament Debut
2022: Scottie Scheffler
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
2020
Scottie Scheffler
T15
2021: Bryson Dechambeau
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
2020
2019
2018
2016
Bryson Dechambeau
4
T46
2
T27
2020: Tyrrell Hatton
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
2019
2018
2017
Tyrrell Hatton
T29
T69
T4
Picks:
Outrights
Collin Morikawa (+2000) – DraftKings
Justin Thomas (+2500) – DraftKings
Patrick Cantlay (+2800) – FanDuel
Shane Lowry (+5000) – FanDuel
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
