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College Basketball Friday Free Play – Milwaukee’s Best

We have a Friday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a nice slate of games. Current CBB record on the season is a mundane 51-51-1, hoping to get on track here coming toward February.

My free play today takes us to Highland Heights, KY for some Horizon League Action featuring the Northern Kentucky Norse (9-11 Overall, 4-5 Horizon) hosting the Milwaukee Panthers (14-7 Overall, 7-3 Horizon). The line checks in with Milwaukee as a slight favorite at -1.5 and the over/under sits at 142.

The Norse started the season 0-4, and have also dropped their last 4 games. Those eight losses are sandwiched around a 9-3 stretch. Their best win in that stretch was against Purdue Fort Wayne at home in OT on New Years Day. They’ve struggled against the best teams in the Horizon league with 3 of their 4 conference wins coming against the worst teams in the league. The Norse are led by Trey Robinson who is averaging 15.7 PPG. They’ve struggled to find him a supporting cast with only two other Norse averaging in double figures.

Milwaukee is 2-2 away from home in Horizon League play so they can be beaten. They had a nice bounce back on Wednesday night winning at Wright State after dropping a heartbreaker at home vs Robert Morris last weekend. Milwaukee junior Jamicheal Stillwell has played well of late. Stillwell put on a show, scoring 26 points and shooting 62.5% from the floor against Robert Morris on Sunday. Following this match-up, he was honored as the Horizon League Player of the Week for his efforts, which was a program first. Themus Fulks leads Milwaukee with 15.4 PPG and they feature five players who average in double figures.

Here’s the keys to tonight:

Northern Kentucky likes to play slow, and Milwaukee will look to push. In games against top tempo teams thus far the Norse have not played well losing to Akron by 13, Charleston by 15 and Youngstown State by 11. Milwaukee isn’t quite as talented as those first two teams, but they thumped Youngstown State by 15 a few weeks back. Milwaukee should be able to run on the Norse and get some easy looks.

The biggest key metric will be on the glass. Milwaukee is 5th in the NCAA in offensive rebounding percentage and 6th in second chance points conversions. Northern Kentucky is at 288th in giving up offensive rebounds and 353rd in allowing second chance point conversions. On the Flip side Milwaukee is 27th in offensive rebounds allowed percentage.

The Panthers should win this game on the boards and with easy buckets and handily cover the 1.5

Milwaukee -1.5, 2 Units

College Basketball Friday Freebie – Sports Betting – Penn State vs Iowa

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56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!

2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U

2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U

2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

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Penn State vs Iowa -3.5 O/U 167.5

This is a fun matchup in the big 10 and the total being at 167.5 really shows that.  Penn State has broken their losing streak on Monday beating Rutgers at home 80-72.   Nice to get off of the Schneid after four losses.  Iowa on the other hand is coming off of three losses in a row.  Two of them were out west in LA, and the last one was a terrible showing a home losing to the Gophers om Tuesday.  Both of these teams play extremely fast, and that is why you see a high total.  Iowa’s biggest issue is rebounding the basketball as they only rank 256th in second change points.   Penn State has the advantage there, but on offense, Iowa is the much better shooting team ranking 4th in the nation in effective FG%.   Penn State ranks a decent 47th in that category, but on the road, their effective FG% drops from 57.5% at home to 50.1% on the road.   Iowa is has a massive home effective FG% at 61.9%.   Iowa is in a desperate get up spot right now if they still have post season aspirations.  They need this win much more than Penn Sate.  I am going to lay it with the Hawkeyes.

Iowa -3.5 – 2 stars

Thursday Free Play Video:

Jan 15, 2022; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland (10) celebrates after his team scored a three-point basket against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports

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Podcast 671 – 7 – 25 – NFL Playoffs Conference Week – CBB Jan 24th-25th – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a great show for you today!  Is the NFL rigged?   Joe Gibbs @NFLRefStats1 from @Sharpfootball comes on to discuss the controversy surrounding the NFL!  First, Kiev talks some college basketball trends for the 2024/2025 season.  Next, Kiev talks some of the biggest and best games to watch or bet on for the weekend with some Free Plays.  Then, Joe comes on and the guys get into his history and NFL ref stats.   Are refs prone to throw flags at different times?   What does the data say about each crew and their dispositions?  Home/Away ref stats.  Then, we talk about why teams may get some favoritism within the game, and what contributes to it.   We discuss if where the NFL is when it comes to integrity.   After that, Kiev get’s into his NFL Conference plays, props and leans.  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie/ Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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College Basketball Thursday Free Play – Bet The Broncos

We have a Thursday Free Pick for everyone this evening as we look at a nice slate of games. Current CBB record on the season is a mundane 46-50-1, hoping to get on track here coming toward February.

My free play today takes us to Santa Clara, CA for some WCC KNAction featuring the Santa Clara Broncos (13-7 Overall, 5-2 WCC) hosting the Washington State Cougars (15-5 Overall, 5-2 WCC). The line checks in with Santa Clara as a slight favorite at -4.5 and the over/under sits at 158.5.

After a rough 3-5 start to the season, Santa Clara has taken ten of its last twelve games, and the Broncos come into this home match-up after a split on the road last week in WCC play losing to Loyola and beating Gonzaga in Pullman. Transfer Elijah Mahi has provided a spark this season for Santa Clara as the forward is averaging 11.9 points per game, the second-most on the team behind Adam Alpha Bal. Overall, Mahi is shooting 50.3 percent from the field and 38.5 percent from distance. Down low they feature 7-footer Christopher Tilly. Averaging 13.2 PPG, he is a threat from the post or behind the arc making him a very difficult big to guard. Bal however is the key to their offense with his ability to get to the rim.

Washington State comes into the game off a sweep last week as they squeaked by San Diego on the road and hammered Portland at home. The Cougars lost top scorer Cedric Coward for the season in November and have been without Isaiah Watts since Mid-December. It is possible Watts returns tonight. Nate Calmese has picked up the slack in their absence averaging 17.3 PPG on 48.6% shooting. He has been attacking the rim and causing a ton of defensive problems. 6’11” Forward Dane Erikstrup has been the other key piece on both ends of the floor. He can stretch the interior defense with his 3-point shooting ability.

I think the offenses will thrive tonight. Both these teams can create defensive match-up issues. Wazzou is 8th in the country in 2-Point Field Goal percentage and that is something Santa Clara will struggle with. Wazzou will constantly be attacking off the dribble and in the post. The Broncos allow 34 Post points per game and ranks 227th defending the 2 point shot. Santa Clara will run a lot of ball screen action and then try and get to the rim off of that or off the dribble. Wazzou is only in the 26th percentile in defense off the dribble and should have plenty of trouble stopping the Broncos

The books have accounted for this with the 158.5 total and I can’t say they are wrong. I think the difference in this game will come down to Washington State not taking as good of care of the rock as Santa Clara. The go fast and are turning the ball over on 20.8% of their possessions. They are also 344th in the country in Non-steal turnover percentage. It’s a big let down spot for Santa Clara following the win at Gonzaga, but Washington State has a big look ahead game next with WCC leading St. Mary’s coming to Pullman.

Gimme the Broncos at home who have the better defense, better free throw percentage and are better at taking care of the basketball.

Santa Clara -4.5, 1.5 Units

Thursday Free Play Video:

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College Basketball Jan 22nd Hump-Day Play – Sports Betting – Miami vs Stanford

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56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!

2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U

2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U

2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball  3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

 

Miami vs Stanford -10.5 O/U 150.5

It is still weird seeing these two teams compete in conference play, but here we are.   One has to be impressed with Stanford over the past few weeks as this team just won three out of their last four ACC games including at North Carolina.  The Cardinal has a solid offense and they do not turn over the ball.  Miami on the other hand is easily the worst team in the ACC.   They have lost 13 of their last 14 games.   It’s hard to think that they actually care.   Well even if they do care, this is a wicked travel spot going all the way across the country to try and win a game that doesn’t move the needle.  This Hurricane’s team plays defense more like a soft warm breeze.   Stanford should be able to score at will ranking 57th in efficiency.  The Cane’s rank 341st in the nation in defensive efficiency.   Did this team quit?   Well, being second worst in the nation as a covering team at 4-14 certainly insinuates that.  You have to go back to Mid-December for their last cover against Presbyterian.   NIL ruined this team, and that is why coach Jim Larranaga took an early retirement.   Let’s retire the Hurricanes.

Stanford -10.5 – 2 stars

Wednesday Free Play Video:

Devin Booker charging into the rim against Pat Beverly and the T-Wolves.

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NBA: Suns/Nets
NHL: Panthers/Kings
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Tuesday Free Play Video:

Two Nuggets players shaking hands in celebration

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NHL: Senators/Rangers
CBB: Wisconsin/UCLA

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2025 Farmers Insurance Open Preview & Picks

Once again last week, we came agonizingly close to our first outright win of the season. Justin Lower (150-1) finished T3 at the American Express, extending the string of near-misses after Nico Echavarria (100-1) fell just short in a playoff to Nick Taylor at the Sony Open in Hawaii. Earlier in the year at The Sentry, Sungjae Im (18-1) also narrowly missed, finishing 3rd.

Now, the focus shifts to the Farmers Insurance Open, the fourth event of the 2025 PGA TOUR season, and the third full-field tournament of the year.

Pre-Tournament Storylines:

Matthieu Pavon

Matthieu Pavon will aim to defend his title at the Farmers Insurance Open, where he made history as the first player from France to win on the PGA TOUR since World War II. This will mark Pavon’s second start of the season following a T48 finish at The Sentry.

Tournament Information:

  • Dates: January 22nd – January 25th, 2025
  • Location: La Jolla, California, United States
  • Courses: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South and North)
  • Format: 72-hole stroke play
    • Thursday – Friday: 2 Course Rotation
      • Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)
      • Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course)
    • Saturday – Sunday: Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)
  • Purse/ Winner: $9,300,000 /$1,674,000
  • FedEx Cup Points: 500
  • Field: 156 Players
  • Cut: Top 65 and Ties – 36 Holes
  • Playoff Format: Sudden Death | 18, 18, 16, 17, 18, 16, 17, 18
  • Historic Cut Line:
    • 2024: -3
    • 2023: E
    • 2022: -3

Social Media:

  • Course X: N/A
  • Tournament X: N/A

Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)

  • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,765 Yards
  • Greens: Poa annua .095”
  • Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .425”
  • Rough: Ryegrass overseed 4”
  • Bunkers: 82
  • Water Hazard(s): 1 (In-Play on 1 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 11.5 ft.
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2024: 72.40 (+0.40), Rank 9 of 51
    • 2023: 73.62 (+1.62), Rank 4 of 49
    • 2022: 72.35 (+0.35), Rank 15 of 50

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: William P. Bell and William F. Bell (1957)
  • Renovations: Rees Jones (2001, 2019)

Comparable Courses:

  • Riviera Country Club – The Genesis Invitational – RESULTS
  • Los Angeles Country Club – 2023 U.S. Open – RESULTS
  • TPC Harding Park – 2020 PGA Championship – RESULTS

Comparable Location (La Jolla, California, United States):

  • PGA West – La Quinta, California – The American Express
  • Pebble Beach Golf Links – Pebble Beach, California – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • The Riviera Country Club – Pacific Palisades, California – The Genesis Invitational
  • Silverado Resort and Spa – Napa, California – Procore Championship
  • Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood) – Truckee, California – Barracuda Championship

Designer Link (Rees Jones (2001, 2019)):

  • East Lake Golf Club – Rees Jones Renovation (1994,2008,2016) – TOUR Championship

Comparable Yardage (7,765 Yards):

  • Corales Golf Course – 7,670 Yards – Corales Puntacana Championship

Comparable Greens (Poa annua .095”):

  • Spyglass Hill GC – Poa annua .100” – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • Riviera CC – Poa annua .100” – The Genesis Invitational
  • Pebble Beach Golf Links – Poa annua – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Comparable Average Green Size (5,000 sq. ft.):

  • Spyglass Hill Golf Course – 5,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • Colonial Country Club – 5,000 sq. ft. – Charles Schwab Challenge
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – 5,000 sq. ft. – the Memorial Tournament
  • TPC River Highlands – 5,000 sq. ft. – Travelers Championship

Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course)

  • Par: 72 (4x 3’s / 10x 4’s / 4x 5’s)
  • Length: 7,258 Yards
  • Greens: Bentgrass .100”
  • Fairways: Ryegrass overseed .425”
  • Rough: Ryegrass overseed 4”
  • Bunkers: 42
  • Water Hazard(s): 0 (In-Play on 0 Holes)
  • Average Green Size: 6,000 sq. ft.
  • Stimpmeter: 10.5 ft.
  • Course Scoring Average:
    • 2024: 69.50 (-2.50), Rank 44 of 51
    • 2023: 71.46 (-0.54), Rank 24 of 49
    • 2022: 68.77 (-3.23), Rank 48 of 50

Course Architect:

  • Course Architect: William P. Bell and William F. Bell (1957)
  • Renovations: Tom Weiskopf (2016)

Comparable Courses:

  • Riviera Country Club – The Genesis Invitational – RESULTS
  • Los Angeles Country Club – 2023 U.S. Open – RESULTS
  • TPC Harding Park – 2020 PGA Championship – RESULTS

Comparable Location (La Jolla, California, United States):

  • PGA West – La Quinta, California – The American Express
  • Pebble Beach Golf Links – Pebble Beach, California – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • The Riviera Country Club – Pacific Palisades, California – The Genesis Invitational
  • Silverado Resort and Spa – Napa, California – Procore Championship
  • Tahoe Mountain Club (Old Greenwood) – Truckee, California – Barracuda Championship

Designer Link (Tom Weiskopf (2016):

  • TPC Scottsdale – Tom Weiskopf Design (1986)/ Renovation (2014) – WM Phoenix Open
  • TPC Craig Ranch – Tom Weiskopf Design (2004) – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Comparable Yardage (7,258 Yards):

  • TPC Summerlin – 7,255 Yards – Shriners Children’s Open
  • TPC Sawgrass (Stadium Course) – 7,256 Yards – THE PLAYERS Championship

Comparable Greens (Bentgrass .100”):

  • TPC Craig Ranch – Bentgrass .100” – THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson
  • Muirfield Village Golf Club – Bentgrass .090” – the Memorial Tournament
  • TPC Twin Cities – Bentgrass .110” – 3M Open

Comparable Average Green Size (6,000 sq. ft.)

  • Monterey Peninsula CC (Shore Course) – 6,000 sq. ft. – AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
  • Puntacana (Corales Golf Course) – 6,000 sq. ft. – Corales Puntacana Championship
  • Port Royal Golf Course – 6,000 sq. ft. – Butterfield Bermuda Championship

TV Information (all times ET):

  • Round 1: Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 11:45 AM – 3:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
  • Round 2: Thursday, January 23rd, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 11:45 AM – 3:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 7:00 PM
  • Round 3: Friday, January 24th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 12:00 PM – 3:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 3:00 PM – 5:00 PM
    • CBS – 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
  • Round 4: Saturday, January 25th, 2025
    • ESPN + (PGA TOUR Live) – 12:00 PM – 2:00 PM
    • Golf Channel – 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM
    • CBS – 4:00 PM – 8:00 PM

Weather:

Course/ Tournament History:

The Farmers Insurance Open will take place from Wednesday to Saturday. This change was made to avoid competing with the NFL Conference Championship games that will take place on Sunday.

The Farmers Insurance Open is a premier PGA Tour event held annually at the iconic Torrey Pines Golf Course in La Jolla, California. Its origins trace back to 1952 when it was first played as the San Diego Open, with Ted Kroll capturing the inaugural title. Over the decades, the tournament has undergone several name changes, reflecting shifts in sponsorship, before Farmers Insurance became the title sponsor in 2010. The event is known for its challenging course setup, particularly on the South Course, which gained global recognition as the host of the 2008 and 2021 U.S. Opens.

The South Course at Torrey Pines Golf Course, located along the stunning cliffs of La Jolla, California, is one of the most renowned public golf courses in the world. Originally designed by William F. Bell in 1957, it underwent a major renovation by Rees Jones in 2001 to prepare it for hosting major championships. Known for its breathtaking views of the Pacific Ocean and its challenging layout, the South Course has become a staple on the PGA Tour, serving as the primary venue for the Farmers Insurance Open. Its reputation as a demanding test of golf reached new heights when it hosted the unforgettable 2008 U.S. Open, where Tiger Woods triumphed in a dramatic playoff against Rocco Mediate, and again during the 2021 U.S. Open, where Jon Rahm claimed his first major title. With narrow fairways, deep rough, and lightning-fast greens, the South Course has earned its place as one of the toughest and most iconic layouts in professional golf.

The North Course at Torrey Pines Golf Course, nestled alongside its more famous counterpart in La Jolla, California, has long been a favorite among golfers for its scenic beauty and playability. Designed by William F. Bell in 1957, the North Course offers stunning views of the Pacific Ocean and a more forgiving layout compared to the challenging South Course. In 2016, renowned architect Tom Weiskopf spearheaded a comprehensive renovation, modernizing the course while preserving its natural charm. The redesign included improved bunkering, widened fairways, and the removal of trees to enhance ocean vistas, making it more accessible for amateur golfers while still providing a solid test for professionals.

Previous Tournament Venues:

DurationCourseLocation
1968-PresentTorrey Pines Golf CourseLa Jolla, California, United States
1965-1967Stardust Country ClubEl Cajon, California, United States
1964Rancho Bernardo Country Club
1962-1963Stardust Country ClubEl Cajon, California, United States
1957, 1958-1961Mission Valley Country ClubEl Cajon, California, United States
1956Singing Hills Country Club
1955Mission Valley Country ClubEl Cajon, California, United States
1954Rancho Santa Fe Golf Club
1952-1953San Diego Country ClubChula Vista, California, United States

Previous Tournament Names:

DurationTournament Name
2010-PresentFarmers Insurance Open
1996-2009Buick Invitational
1992-1995Buick Invitational of California
1991Shearson Lehman Brothers Open
1989-1990Shearson Lehman Hutton Open
1988Shearson Lehman Hutton Andy Williams Open
1986-1987Shearson Lehman Brothers Andy Williams Open
1983-1985Isuzu-Andy Williams San Diego Open
1981-1982Wickes-Andy Williams San Diego Open
1968-1980Andy Williams-San Diego Open Invitational
1957, 1959-1967San Diego Open Invitational
1995-1956Convair-San Diego Open
1952-1954San Diego Open

Tournament Records:

  • 72-Hole Record (Tournament – Farmers Insurance Open):
    • 266, George Burns (1987), Tiger Woods (1999)
  • 18-Hole Record (Tournament – Farmers Insurance Open):
    • 61, Mark Brooks (Round 2, 1990), Brandt Snedeker (Round 1, 2007)
  • Largest Margin of Victory (Tournament – Farmers Insurance Open):
    • 8 Strokes – Tiger Woods (2008)
  • Most Wins at Event:
    • 7 – Tiger Woods (1999, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2013)

Course Records:

  • 18-Hole Record (Torrey Pines South Course):
    • 62, Tiger Woods (Round 3, 1999)

  • 18-Hole Record (Torrey Pines North Course (Redesigned)):
    • 62, Jon Rahm (Round 1, 2019), Ryan Palmer (Round 2, 2020), Alex Smalley (Round 2, 2022), Adam Schenk (Round 2, 2022)

Course Guides/ Scorecard:

Torrey Pines Golf Course (South Course)

The four Par 3’s range from 177 to 227 yards. Last year, two (No. 3 and No. 11) of the four Par 3’s had a scoring average over par.

No. 3, 201 yards, Par 3: Overlooking La Jolla, South Course’s signature Par 3, is the most picturesque of all the Par 3’s on the course. Club selection is of utmost importance as the hole can play as short as a 9 iron, and as long as a hybrid. Playing downhill, a good tee shot will leave you middle of green. Avoid going long here as it will leave you a very difficult pitch to get up and down.

No. 16, 227 yards, Par 3: Two teeing grounds will have a dramatic effect on how this hole is played. The shorter tee, to the left, brings two greenside bunkers into play, but players can aim right and ride the prevailing breeze. The front of the green is open from the longer tee, but the wind can complicate the angle.

There are ten Par 4’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards. In terms of scoring average, the toughest Par 4 on the course last year was No. 12.

No. 4, 490 yards, Par 4: The second longest of the daunting Par 4’s at Torrey Pines, hole #4 requires a good tee shot that will leave you a long iron or fairway metal into a green protected by a bunker on the left. Play approach to the right of the green to allow the contours of the green complex to feed the ball to the middle of the green. A par here is a good score.

No. 14, 437 yards, Par 4: With the canyon running all along the left of the fairway, players will be sure to play the ball safely out to the right, probably with a fairway wood. The most difficult hole location will be back right, but any shots missed long could result in bogey or worse, as there are hazards just off the back of the green.

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 6, No. 9, No. 13, and No. 18. All of these holes had a scoring average under par in 2024. No. 6 was the easiest hole on the course last year with a scoring average of 0.384 below par.

No. 13, 621 yards, Par 5: A new tee has been added, back and to the left, calling for a drive of at least 240 yards to carry the canyon. Should players choose to go for the green in two, they will need to carry the second shot some 260 yards as the green is elevated and protected by bunkers and rough in front.

No. 18, 570 yards, Par 5: The closing hole is a great par 5 – basically straight but with a twist in the drive zone – on which anything can happen. Just ask Bruce Devlin. In contention for the 1975 Andy Williams San Diego Open, the Australian took six hacks to get his ball out of the water in front of the green on his way to making a 10. The pond is now called “Devlin’s Billabong”.

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 3

Torrey Pines Golf Course (North Course)

The four Par 3’s range from 202 to 241 yards.

No. 12, 203 yards, Par 3: Playing downhill and downwind, this Par 3 requires a precise tee shot to carry the canyon. Par is a great score here.

No. 15, 202 yards, Par 3: The signature Par 3 offers players a spectacular view of La Jolla and the Pacific Ocean. Playing downhill this beautiful hole is protected by a bunker in front of a steeply back-to-front sloped green. Avoid going long here.

There are ten Par 4’s on the North Course at Torrey Pines with the majority of those holes ranging between 450 and 500 yards.

No. 16, 393 yards, Par 4: Don’t put the cameras away yet! This slight dogleg right uphill Par 4 plays parallel to the Pacific Ocean. A good tee shot will leave you a short iron into an elevated green.

No. 18, 486 yards, Par 4: The closing hole on the North Course is as demanding as it comes. Rated the toughest hole on the course, many a bet will be won and lost on this Par 4! Favor the left side, as a good tee shot will leave you a mid-to-long iron to a two-tiered green.

There are four Par 5s on the course, No. 5, No. 9, No. 10, and No. 17.

No. 5, 525 yards, Par 5: This Par 5 is a welcome sight after three long Par 4’s, to open the outward 9. A relatively short Par 5 is a slight dog-leg left. Favor the left side of the fairway on the tee shot. A good tee shot can leave you in the “go zone, “ to hit your approach onto a relatively open green.

No. 17, 520 yards, Par 5: Once a Par 4, this hole was renovated to a Par 5 during its last renovation. Playing downwind a good tee shot on this slight dogleg left Par 5 will need to favor the right side as the left is OB. A good shot will leave either a clear lay-up shot or even better an opportunity to reach a relatively unprotected green in two!

Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 15

Key Statistics:

The Farmers Insurance Open occurs at Torrey Pines Golf Course. Here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.

StatisticsPGA Tour AverageTorrey Pines (South Course)Torrey Pines (North Course)
Driving Distance (Yards)283.73286.61
Driving Accuracy62%53%50%
GIR Percentage66%62%72%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)29.1729.67
Scrambling Percentage58%52%62%
Avg 3 Putts / Round0.550.740.73

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Torrey Pines (South Course).

Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Torrey Pines (North Course).

  • Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
    • Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Luek Clanton
      • Trevor Cone
      • Daniel Berger
      • Joseph Bramlett
      • Taylor Moore
      • Maverick McNealy
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Gary Woodland
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Doug Ghim

  • Strokes Gained: Approach
    • A strong iron game is crucial for success at this event, as demonstrated by recent history.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • J.J. Spaun
      • Antoine Rozner
      • Mac Meissner
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Gary Woodland
      • Matteo Manassero
      • Charley Hoffman
      • Hideki Matsuyama
      • Luke Clanton
      • David Lipsky

  • Strokes Gained: Putting (Poa)
    • The green complexes on the South Course at Torrey Pines are Poa annua .095”.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Taylor Montgomery
      • Chesson Hadley
      • Akshay Bhatia
      • Max Homa
      • S.H. Kim
      • Peter Malnati
      • Rafael Campos
      • Maverick McNealy
      • Hayden Springer
      • Matthieu Pavon
      • Beau Hossler

  • Par 4 Scoring: 450-500 Yards
    • Six of the ten Par 4’s on the South Course at Torrey Pines range from 450-500 Yards.
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Alejandro Tosti
      • Austin Eckroat
      • Sungjae Im
      • Joe Highsmith
      • Luke Clanton
      • Patrick Fishburn
      • Henrik Norlander
      • Daniel Berger
      • Maverick McNelay
      • Carson Young

  • Bogey Avoidance
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Max Greyserman
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Gary Woodland
      • Andrew Novak
      • Shane Lowry
      • Greyson Sigg
      • Joe Highsmith
      • Mac Meissner
      • Harris English
      • Beau Hossler

  • Scrambling Gained
    • Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
      • Harris English
      • Brian Campbell
      • Zach Johnson
      • Akshay Bhatia
      • Adam Schenk
      • Max Greyserman
      • Paul Peterson
      • Kurt Kitayama
      • Gary Woodland
      • Eric Cole

  • Proximity Gained: 200+ Yards
    • The South Course at Torrey Pines sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 200+ yard range compared to the PGA Tour average.
  • Leaders in Proximity Gained 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
    • Michael Kim
    • Kurt Kitayama
    • Max Greyserman
    • Alex Smalley
    • Luke Clanton
    • Austin Eckroat
    • Andrew Novak
    • Ben Griffin
    • Nick Hardy
    • Kaito Onishi

  • Comparable Courses and Event History
    • The Data Golf Course History Tool suggests that past success at Torrey Pines has been a strong predictor of future performance in this tournament.
  • Leaders in this category (Stokes Gained Total at Farmers Insurance Open):
    • Matthieu Pavon
    • Jake Knapp
    • Tony Finau
    • Ludvig Aberg
    • Justin Rose
    • Will Zalatoris
    • Max Homa
    • Ryan Palmer
    • Akshay Bhatia
    • Taylor Montgomery

The Field:

This year’s Farmers Insurance Open will feature a total of 156 competitors.

Basis of qualification for each entrant this week:

  • Winner – PGA/U.S. Open Championship
  • Winner – Masters Tournament
  • Winner – British Open
  • Winners of the Arnold Palmer, Memorial, Genesis (Last 3 Years)
  • Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons
  • Career Money Exemption
  • Sponsor Exemptions: DPWT / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category
  • Sponsors Exemptions – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt
  • Sponsors Exemptions – Unrestricted
  • PGA Section Champion\Player of the Year
  • Open Qualifying
  • Top 30 on the FedExCup Playoffs & Eligibility Points List
  • Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
  • Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
  • Major Medical Extension
  • PGA TOUR University #1 – Prior Season
  • Leading 10 players (not otherwise exempt) on DP World Tour
  • Players 2-30 on the Prior Season Korn Ferry Tour Points List
  • Top 5 Finishers and Ties from PGA TOUR Q-School
  • Top Finishers from Korn Ferry Tour Medical
  • Minor Medical Extension
  • 126-150 on FedExCup Fall Points List

Previous Winners in the Field (Event):

  • Matthieu Pavon (2024), Max Homa (2023), Luke List (2022), Justin Rose (2019), Jason Day (2018, 2015), Brandt Snedeker (2016, 2012)

Debutants in the Field (Event):

  • Aldrich Potgieter, Antoine Rozner, Cavin McCall, Cristobal Del Solar, Danny Walker, Frankie Capan III, Jackson Koivun, Jackson Suber, Jeremy Paul, Jesper Svensson, John Pak, Kaito Onishi, Kevin Velo, Luke Clanton, Mason Andersen, Matt McCarty, Matteo Manassero, Matthew Riedel, Michael Thorbjornsen, Niklas Norgaard Moller, Noah Goodwin, Paul Peterson, Quade Cummins, Ricky Castillo, Rikuya Hoshino, Ryan Gerard, Steven Fisk, Takumi Kanaya, Taylor Dickson, Thomas Rosenmueller, Thriston Lawrence, Tim Widing, Will Chandler, William Mouw

Sponsors Exemptions:

  • Joseph Bramlett (Unrestricted)
  • Luke Clanton (Unrestricted)
  • Zach Johnson (PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt)
  • Jackson Koivun (Unrestricted)
  • Willie Mack III (Unrestricted)
  • Troy Merritt (PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt)
  • Kevin Tway (DPWT / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category)
  • Dylan Wu (DPWT / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category)

Notable Withdraws/ Changes:

  • Nicolai Højgaard WD / Hayden Springer IN
  • Collin Morikawa WD / Wesley Bryan IN
  • Tyler McCumber WD / S.H. Kim IN
  • Mackenzie Hughes WD / Pierceson Coody IN
  • Akshay Bhatia WD / Garrick Higgo IN
  • Chesson Hadley WD / Carl Yuan IN
  • Harry Hall WD / Matthew NeSmith IN

Tee Times & Groupings:

The Odds:

Here are the current favorites for this week’s event:

Tournament Props:

Playoff:

  • Will There Be a Playoff at the Farmers Insurance Open? (Yes +350 / No -500)

In the last ten editions of the Farmers Insurance Open, this tournament has been decided by a playoff three times (2015, 2018, 2022).

Hole-in-One:

  • Will There Be A Hole-in-One at the Farmers Insurance Open? (Yes -150/ No +115)

Last year at the Farmers Insurance Open, Hideki Matsuyama made his first career hole-in-one on the 8th hole on the South Course.

Recent Horses for Courses (Event):

Farmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance Open
Torrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf Course
GolferEvents PlayedScoring Avg. (per round)20242023202220212020
Tony Finau1070.3269MC26
Will Zalatoris570.1313MC27
Taylor Montgomery370.33133111
Max Homa870.9213WONMC189
Ryan Palmer1070.746216221

Recent Donkeys for Courses (Event):

Farmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance Open
Torrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf Course
GolferEvents PlayedScoring Avg. (per round)20242023202220212020
Vincent Whaley472.75MCMCMCMC
Davis Riley373.50MCMCMC
Harry Hall373.33MCMCMC
Kyounghoon Lee472.75MCMCMC
Lee Hodges372.33MCMCMC
Hayden Buckley372.17MCMCMC
Matthias Schmid273.50MCMC
Kurt Kitayama273.50MCMC
Eric Cole273.50MCMC
Kristoffer Ventura273.00MCMC
Carl Yuan272.75MCMC
Scott Gutschewski672.29MCMC
David Skinns272.25MCMC

Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):

  • 2024: Matthieu Pavon (-13)
    • Price: 125-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Matthieu Pavon25th23rd21st47th4th
  • 2023: Max Homa (-13)
    • Price: 25-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Max Homa31st1st1st24th9th
  • 2022: Luke List (-15)
    • Price: 90-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Luke List21st5th4th32nd8th
  • 2021: Patrick Reed (-14)
    • Price: 25-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Patrick Reed31st12th39th1st10th
  • 2020: Marc Leishman (-15)
    • Price: 55-1
 SG: Off the TeeSG: Tee to GreenSG: ApproachSG: Around the GreenSG: Putting
Marc Leishman48th16th5th56th1st

Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):

  • 2024: Matthieu Pavon
    • T39 – The American Express (PGA)
    • T7 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
    • MC – AfrAsia Bank Mauritius Open (DPWT)
    • T5 – DP World Tour Championship (DPWT)
    • T15 – Nedbank Golf Challenge (DPWT)
  • 2023: Max Homa
    • T3 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
    • 17 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
    • T23 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
    • T20 – Shriners Children’s Open (PGA)
    • WON – Fortinet Championship (PGA)

  • 2022: Luke List
    • T22 – The American Express (PGA)
    • T10 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
    • T11 –  Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
    • MC – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
    • T7 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)

  • 2021: Patrick Reed
    • MC – The American Express (PGA)
    • T21 – Sentry Tournament of Champions (PGA)
    • T10 – The Masters (MAJ)
    • T14 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
    • T13 – U.S. Open (MAJ)

  • 2020: Marc Leishman
    • T28 – Sony Open in Hawaii (PGA)
    • 69 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
    • T43 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
    • 3 – Safeway Open (PGA)
    • WD – A Military Tribute (PGA)

Previous Winners Finishes at Event:

2024: Matthieu Pavon

  • Tournament Debut

2023: Max Homa

Farmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance Open
Torrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf Course
202220212020201720152014
Max HomaMCT18T9MCMCMC

2022: Luke List

Farmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance Open
Torrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf Course
2021202020192018201720162013
Luke List T10T36T40T12MCMCT68

2021: Patrick Reed

Farmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance Open
Torrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf Course
20202019201820162013
Patrick ReedT6T13T23WDT39

2020: Marc Leishman

Farmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenFarmers Insurance OpenBuick Invitational
Torrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf CourseTorrey Pines Golf Course
20192018201720162015201420132012201120102009
Marc LeishmanT43T8T20MCT27T2MCT52T9T2T26

Picks:

Outrights

Keegan Bradley (+2200) – FanDuel/ DraftKings

Risk 0.37 Units to win 8.14 Units

Will Zalatoris (+2200) – FanDuel/ DraftKings

Risk 0.37 Units to win 8.14 Units

Max Homa (+3300) – FanDuel

Risk 0.25 Units to win 8.25 Units

Stephan Jaeger (+6500) – FanDuel

Risk 0.13 Units to win 8.45 Units

Top 20 (Inc. Ties)

Sahith Theegala (+125) – DraftKings

Risk 1.00 Units to win 1.25 Units

Maverick McNealy (+130) – DraftKings

Risk 1.00 Units to win 1.30 Units

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.