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Friday Free Play Video:

Running back Demetric Felton #10 of the UCLA Bruins celebrates with teammates after running for a 75 yard touchdown against the Oregon State Beavers in the second half of a NCAA football game at the Rose Bowl on Saturday, Oct. 5, 2019 in Pasadena, California. Oregon State Beavers won 48-31. (Photo by Keith Birmingham, Pasadena Star-News/SCNG)

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4 Free Selections:
NCAAF: UCLA/Washington
NCAAF: Houston/Arizona
NBA: Timberwolves/Kings
NHL: Vegas/Utah

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Podcast 649 – 94 – 24 – NFL Week 11 – UFC 309 – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a GREAT show for you today!  Kiev is under the weather and goes solo to break down a huge weekend of games.  First, Kiev talks about some NFL ATS and Totals trends!  Next, we get into NFL week 11 with a bunch of analysis and Free Plays!  No new beer bet bangers this week so please get this week’s from our last show with Ron.  Finally, we get into some NFL sharp money movement and recap our plays!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com.  Have a wonderful week!

Link to wagering on our best bets from the show:  https://theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie/ Must Be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call or Text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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College Football Week 12 Sharp Money Movement

As Of Wednesday 11/13

Sharp Money On:

  • Arkansas +16 to +13 hosting Texas – 42% tickets and 55% of the money.
  • Northwestern +31 to +28.5 hosting Ohio State – 44% tickets and 74% of the money.
  • Sam Houston -13 to -14.5 at Kennesaw State – 80% tickets and 80% of the money.
  • SMU -15.5 to -17.5 hosting Boston College – 59% tickets and 67% of the money.
  • Kansas Sate -7 to -9.5 hosting Arizona State – 73% tickets and 97% of the money.

Sharp Totals:

  • Utah vs Colorado under 50 to 47.5 – 24% tickets and 43% of the money.
  • Clemson vs Pittsburgh under 60 to 54.5 – 49% tickets and 90% of the money.
  • Nebraska vs USC under 51.5 o 50.5 – 19% tickets and 29% of the money.
  • Syracuse vs Cal over 53.5 to 55.5 – 77% tickets and 94% of the money.
  • Liberty vs UMass under 55.5 to 52.5 – 34% tickets and 46% of the money.

NHL Picks & Props – November 14th, 2024

Tonight’s NHL slate is loaded with action, with ten games scheduled across the league.

Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the world of NHL wagering, today’s games present numerous enticing angles, including moneylines, puck lines, and prop bets. With teams eager to establish their early-season identities, there’s plenty to consider. Let’s explore the top matchups and uncover the best bets for tonight’s action!

Picks/ Props:

New Jersey Devils @ Florida Panthers

  • Florida Panthers (-160) – BetMGM

These teams just faced off on Tuesday, with the New Jersey Devils taking a 4-1 win despite being outshot 35-23. Jacob Markstrom (NJD) and Spenser Knight were the goaltenders in that game, with Markstrom finishing at +2.65 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and Knight at -0.44 GSAx. Tonight, Sergei Bobrovsky will start for Florida, while Jake Allen is in net for New Jersey. Interestingly, the Devils have struggled at home this season with a 4-3-2 record, while Florida has excelled on the road at 6-2-0. Given Florida’s overall strength, they have a solid chance to bounce back tonight against a team that recently bested them.

San Jose Sharks @ New York Rangers

  • Mika Zibanejad over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings

Zibanejad is currently skating on New York’s top line with Kreider and Smith and also plays on the Rangers’ top power-play unit.

In his last five games, Zibanejad has hit his shots-on-goal target three times, averaging 2.4 shots on goal and 4.0 shot attempts per game. He’s been particularly reliable at home this season, surpassing 2.5 shots on goal at a 62.5% rate compared to just 16.7% on the road.

San Jose ranks 31st in the league for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 34.2. Breaking it down further, the Sharks have allowed the 5th most shots on goal per game to forwards this season (22.69).

Winnipeg Jets @ Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Victor Hedman over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105) – DraftKings

Hedman is currently skating on Tampa Bay’s top defensive unit with J.J. Moser and also plays on the Lightning’s top power-play unit.

In his last four games, Hedman has hit his shots-on-goal target three times, averaging 3.0 shots on goal and 5.25 shot attempts per game. He’s been particularly reliable at home this season, surpassing 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last five games.

Winnipeg ranks 19th in the league for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 29.4. Breaking it down further, the Jets have allowed the 6th most shots on goal per game to forwards this season (9.07).

St. Louis Blues @ Buffalo Sabres

  • Rasmus Dahlin over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-168) – DraftKings

Dahlin is currently skating on Buffalo’s top defensive unit with Bowen Byram and also plays on the Sabres’ top power-play unit.

In his last five games, Dahlin has hit his shots-on-goal target in each game, averaging 3.4 shots on goal and 7.20 shot attempts per game. He’s been particularly reliable at home this season, surpassing 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last five games.

St. Louis ranks 24th in the league for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 30.3.

Boston Bruins @ Dallas Stars

  • Tyler Seguin over 0.5 Point (-110) – DraftKings

Seguin is set to face his former team tonight. He has recorded a point in six of his last seven games and currently skates on Dallas’ second line with Mason Marchment and Matt Duchene. Seguin also sees time on the Stars’ second power-play unit, which should have ample opportunities tonight. Dallas ranks 13th in goals per game, averaging 3.21, while the Bruins rank 21st in goals against per game, allowing an average of 3.18. Boston’s defense has shown some vulnerability recently, conceding at least three goals in three of their last four games.

Nashville Predators @ Edmonton Oilers

  • Connor McDavid over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-110) – DraftKings

McDavid is currently skating on Edmonton’s top line with Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman and also plays on the Oilers’ top power-play unit.

In his last three games since returning from injury, McDavid has hit his shots-on-goal target twice, averaging 4.67 shots on goal and 8.0 shot attempts per game. He’s been particularly reliable at home this season, surpassing 2.5 shots on goal in three of his last four games.

Nashville ranks 18th in the league for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 29.4.

Promotions/ Sources:

Linemate – Player/ Team Props

I’ve been using Linemate since the start, and it has proven to be an invaluable resource for NHL betting. One of its standout features is the comprehensive data and analytics that help bettors make informed decisions when placing prop bets. The platform also boasts a user-friendly interface, making it accessible for both experienced bettors and newcomers alike, allowing them to easily navigate and find the best prop bets. By utilizing Linemate’s robust tools and resources, NHL prop betters can significantly enhance their chances of making profitable wagers throughout the season. Beyond NHL betting, Linemate also provides in-depth data on various other sports, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NCAAF, EPL, and many more leagues and sports.

Use my code to receive a one-time 15% discount, which can be applied to your first month of a monthly plan or the total cost of an annual plan. My discount code is always more competitive than any deals from Linemate. While Linemate’s monthly plan costs $9.99, their annual plan is currently priced at $79.99, offering a 33% discount off the regular price. The best part? My 15% code applies to the $79.99 plan, meaning you’ll actually enjoy over 40% OFF!

Shot Propz – Charts

  • Shots on Goal (SOG) Against by Position
  • Shot Attempts (SAT) Against by Position
  • Goals Against (GA) by Position
  • Team Offensive Stat Overview
  • Team Defensive Stat Overview
  • Team Hits and Blocks

Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.

Thursday Free Play Video:

Premium Selections over at www.oddsbreakers.com

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4 Free Selections:
NFL: Commanders/Eagles
NCAAF: ECU/Tulsa
NBA: Mavs/Jazz
NHL: Jets/Lightning

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Thursday Night Football Video Prop Play – Commanders vs Eagles

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Kiev O’Neil’s Sports Betting Stats and Records!  

56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season!

55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24!

2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U

2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U

2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U

63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals!   22-13 up 6.5 units.  14% ROI

55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  5.21% ROI

56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U

55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals!  4.75% ROI

63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS!

54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball  3% ROI

38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI

62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!

NFL Week 11 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • Saints hosting the Browns after beating Atlanta might be one.
  • The Chiefs could remain flat after the big Denver FG block at the Bills.
  • The Patriots could choke hosting the Rams after the Bears win.

Get Up Spots:

  • The Bears need to wake up hosting the Packers.
  • The Jets need to do something hosting the Colts.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • None

Short Rest:

  • Dolphins after Monday night football hosting the Raiders.
  • Rams after Monday night football at the Patriots.

Long Rest:

  • Bengals after Thursday Night at the Chargers.
  • Ravens after Thursday night at the Steelers.
  • Browns off the bye at the Saints.
  • Packers off the bye at the Bears.
  • Raiders off the bye at the Dolphins.
  • Seahawks off the bye at the 49ers.

Revenge Spots:

  • Ravens at the Steelers.  The Ravens lost 7 of the last 8 games against them.  
  • Bears hosting the Packers is one for sure.

NFL Week 10 Misleading Final Scores

The Bengals out-gained the Ravens 470 to 389 yet lost 35-34.   A 1-0 turnover ratio and poor coaching and bad officiating got them.

The Giants out-gained the Panthers 342 to 306 yet lost 20-17.  A 3-1 turnover ratio did them in.  Poor quarterback play was the key.

The Vikings out-gained the Jags 402 to 143 yet lost 12-7.  Equal turnover at 3, but terrible red zone and quarterbacking for the Vikings is the reason they didn’t cover.

The 49ers out-gained the Buccaneers 413 to 215 yet only won 23-20.   Horrible special teams with three missed FGs and bad red zone killed the spread.

The Falcons out-gained the Saints 468 to 365 yet lost 20-17.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and terrible special teams FGs got the Birds.

The Bills only out-gained the Colts 415 to 361 yet won 30-20.  A 4-2 turnover ratio got the ponies.

The Rams out-gained the Dolphins 327 to 238 yet lost 23-15.  Equal turnovers at 2, but bad special teams and red zone got the Rams.

College Football Week 12 Betting Spots

Let Down Spots:

  • Rutgers at Maryland after the Minnesota Win.
  • UCLA at Washington after beating Iowa outright.

Get Up Spots:

  • Georgia hosting Tennessee to stay relevant is huge.
  • Kansas needs to try and stay bowl eligible at BYU.
  • LSU better open a can at Florida.

Look Ahead Spots:

  • None

Long Rest:

  • Toledo off the bye with an extra few days vs Central Michigan.
  • Miami Ohio with an extra day hosting Kent State.
  • Eastern Michigan off the bye at Ohio.
  • Coastal Carolina with an extra few days at Marshall.
  • App State with an extra few days hosting James Madison.
  • Tulsa off the by hosting East Carolina.
  • FAU with an extra few days to do nothing at Temple.
  • North Carolina off the bye hosting Wake Forest.
  • Cal with an extra day off hosting Syracuse.
  • Memphis with an extra day hosting UAB.
  • UCLA with an extra day to celebrate at Washington.
  • Akron off the bye at Northern Illinois.
  • Arkansas off the bye hosting Texas.
  • Auburn off the bye hosting Louisiana Monroe.
  • Baylor off the bye at West Virginia.
  • Buffalo off the bye hosting Ball State.
  • Charlotte off the bye and two extra days hosting South Florida.
  • FIU off the bye at Jacksonville State.
  • Kansas State off the bye hosting ASU.
  • SMU off the bye hosting Boston College.
  • Sam Houston off the bye at Kennesaw State.
  • South Alabama off the bye at Louisiana.
  • Texas A&M off the bye hosting New Mexico State.
  • UMASS off the bye hosting Liberty.
  • UTSA off the bye hosting North Texas.
  • Wisconsin off the bye hosting Oregon.

Revenge Spots:

  • South Carolina hosting Missouri is one.
  • Tennessee at Georgia for sure.

College Football Week 11 Misleading Final Scores

Rice out-gained Memphis 367 to 366 yet lost 27-20.   Equal turnovers at 1, but poor coaching got the Owls.  

Cincinnati out-gained West Virginia 436 to 248 yet lost 32-24,  A 3-1 turnover ratio got the Bearcats.  

Syracuse out-gained Boston College 431 to 378 yet lost 37-31.   Equal turnovers at 1 but 10 penalties and bad 4th down 0/3 got the Orange.  

NC State was only outgained 276 to 268 yet lost 29-19.   A 2-1 red zone turnover ratio and bad coaching got the Wolfpack!

Texas Tech out-gained Colorado 388 to 351 yet lost 41-27.  A gross 3-0 turnover ratio killed the Red Raiders.

New Mexico State out-gained Western Kentucky 460 to 413 let lost 41-28.   A 5-2 turnover ratio did them in.

UCF out-gained ASU 406 to 260 yet lost 35-31.  A 1-0 turnover ratio and bad red zone efficiency got the Knights.   So did 9 penalties.

BYU out-gained Utah 339 to 259 yet only won 22-21.   They won the turnover battle 3-0, but horrible plus field efficiency hurt the Cougars.