We have a GREAT show for you today! Ron Marmalefski @RonAceSports is back to break down some college football! First, Kiev talks about the current ATS and O/U trends. Next, Ron comes on and the guys start talking about the SEC and how deep that conference currently is compared to their playoff hopes. Then, the guys talk some buy low/sell high teams for the up coming weeks. After that, Ron and Kiev get into college football week 12 with a bunch of Free Plays! Next, the guys give out some beer bet bangers that could hit for some good + money. Finally, we get into some NCAAF sharp money movement AND recap our plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The Butterfield Bermuda Championship is the seventh of eight events in the FedExCup Fall. Players finishing in the top 125 after next week’s final tournament, the RSM Classic at Sea Island, will secure full exemption for next season. Those ranked 126-150 will receive conditional status.
Players outside the top 125 still have an opportunity to improve or regain TOUR status through the PGA TOUR Q-School, presented by Korn Ferry.
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship, part of the PGA Tour, was established in 2019 as a tournament in Bermuda, marking an exciting addition to the tour’s calendar. Held at the scenic Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, it quickly became notable for showcasing emerging talent, drawing both established players and newer faces. Originally introduced as an alternate event to the WGC-HSBC Champions, it offered a full allotment of FedExCup points and a chance for players to secure a valuable PGA Tour victory. In 2020, when the HSBC event was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bermuda Championship was elevated to a primary event, granting its winner an invitation to the Masters Tournament.
Port Royal Golf Course, located in Southampton Parish, Bermuda, is a celebrated course with a rich history that dates back to its opening in 1970. Designed by famed golf course architect Robert Trent Jones Sr., Port Royal was created to provide world-class golfing on the island, featuring stunning ocean views and a challenging layout that maximizes the natural landscape. Known for its dramatic elevation changes, coastal winds, and the famous 16th hole—a picturesque par-3 set against the Atlantic Ocean—Port Royal has earned a reputation as one of Bermuda’s premier golf courses. In 2008, it underwent an extensive renovation led by original architect Jones’s protégé, Roger Rulewich, enhancing its facilities and modernizing its layout while preserving its original character. Since its debut, Port Royal has hosted numerous prestigious tournaments, including the PGA Grand Slam of Golf from 2009 to 2014, and it became the home of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship in 2019.
Tournament Records:
72-Hole Record (Butterfield Bermuda Championship):
260, Brendon Todd (2019), Camilo Villegas (2023)
18-Hole Record (Butterfield Bermuda Championship):
61, Taylor Pendrith (2nd Round, 2021), Alex Noren (1st round, 2023)
Largest Margin of Victory:
4 Strokes – Brendon Todd (2019)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (Port Royal Golf Course):
260, Brendon Todd (2019), Camilo Villegas (2023)
18-Hole Record (Port Royal Golf Course):
61, Taylor Pendrith (2nd Round, 2021), Alex Noren (1st round, 2023)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
Port Royal Golf Course is a Par 71 that plays 6,828 yards. The layout features four Par 3’s, eleven Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. It’s one of the shortest courses on Tour with the main defense being the wind.
The four Par 3’s range between 148 yards and 235 yards. At the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship, only one (No. 3), had a scoring average under par.
No. 8, 213 yards, Par 3: “This is a demanding par 3 and the large green perched on the ocean will present the golfer with a challenge. Bunkers surround the target and beware – the ocean awaits the long ball. A par here is a hard-earned achievement.”
No. 16, 235 yards, Par 3: “This is truly one of the most spectacular holes in world golf. The tee shot will require a solidly hit shot across the ocean to a green perched high above the ocean on its own peninsular, A well-bunkered green offers the player a small target to find and, with the prevailing winds, this hole has the ability to fool the strongest of minds. A shot to the right will be safe from the ocean but missing the traps will be a challenge.”
Six of the eleven Par 4’s range between 350 – 400 yards. No. 10 is the shortest Par 4’s listed at 350 yards with the longest being No. 4, at 458 yards.
No. 15, 412 yards, Par 4: “A dogleg to the right, with the ocean on the left and a steep run off to the right, will be the initial issues the golfer faces. Two well-placed traps on the left of the fairway must be avoided, so play for position from this tee. A risk/reward shot is available with a well-struck drive down the right leaving a short iron into a well-protected, undulating green. Achieving a par here is a challenge.”
No. 18, 410 yards, Par 4: “A long, straight, uphill par 4 requiring a well-struck tee shot to a tiered fairway with bunkers left and right – this is a visually excellent hole. The second shot to a raised green will test your skill set and be sure to take an extra club for this shot to the three-tiered front-to-back sloping green. You will face a constant challenge to the end on this hole.”
The three Par 5’s are No. 2, 7, and 17. None of the Par 5’s are listed over 600 yards. All of the Par 5’s had a scoring average below par at the 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
No. 2, 553 yards, Par 5: “This is a serious par 5, three-shot hole. Water off the tee gives way to a left-to-right sweeping dog leg, trees left and right with bunkers to threaten the off-center shot. You will need to play for position on the 2nd shot. This gives way to a short iron approach to a raised green well protected on all sides by deep bunkers.”
No. 17, 507 yards, Par 5: “The prevailing wind will punish you here and a well positioned tee shot is necessary. The water on the left will make the big hitter think and the well-trapped right side will certainly favor the conservative player. The second shot is all about position and an accurate lay-up is required to leave you with a challenging third shot to a raised green, but beware of the run-off. An undulating green caps off this challenging par 5.”
As the Butterfield Bermuda Championship takes place at Port Royal Golf Course, here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Port Royal Golf Course
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.67
N/A
Driving Accuracy
62%
55%
GIR Percentage
66%
66%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.17
N/A
Scrambling Percentage
58%
61%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.52
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset at Port Royal Golf Course.
Good Drives Gained
Success this week will hinge on players’ ability to position themselves effectively off the tee. While the course’s considerable length underscores the significance of distance, precision holds equal importance.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Matthew NeSmith
Ben Kholes
Austin Smotherman
Andrew Putnam
Greyson Sigg
Ryan Brehm
Chez Reavie
Nick Hardy
Alex Smalley
Mark Hubbard
Strokes Gained: Approach
A strong iron game is crucial for success at Port Royal Golf Course, as demonstrated by recent tournament history.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Lucas Glover
Doug Ghim
Austin Smotherman
Michael Kim
Nick Hardy
Andrew Novak
Matti Schmid
Zac Blair
Ben Kholes
Francesco Molinari
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
Players will undoubtedly miss greens this week so they’ll need to rely on their short game.The past few winners of this event have all been great short-game players.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Mackenzie Hughes
Brendon Todd
Andrew Putnam
Greyson Sigg
Vince Whaley
Ben Griffin
Maverick McNealy
S.Y. Soh
Ben Taylor
Trace Crowe
Strokes Gained: Total (Windy AF Conditions (Fantasy National terms))
The weather forecast predicts daily winds of 15-30 mph, giving an edge to players skilled at shaping shots in both directions.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Sam Stevens
Daniel Berger
Vince Whaley
Sean O’Hair
Tyler Duncan
Seamus Power
Jhonattan Vegas
Scott Piercy
Chad Ramey
Brendon Todd
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The Greens at Port Royal Golf Course are Tif Eagle bermudagrass .125”.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Mackenzie Hughes
Chad Ramey
S.H. Kim
Jacob Bridgeman
David Skinns
Sam Stevens
K.H. Lee
Justin Suh
Hayden Springer
Garrick Higgo
Par 3 Scoring: 225+ Yards (x2)
Two of the four Par 3’s at Port Royal Golf Course are more than 225 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Ben Taylor
Trace Crowe
Robby Shelton
Nico Exhavarria
Kevin Chappell
Mackenzie Hughes
Ryo Hisatsune
Daniel Berger
S.Y. Noh
Ben Griffin
Par 4 Scoring: 350-400 Yards (x6)
Six of the eleven Par 4’s at Port Royal Golf Course range between 350-400 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Roger Sloan
Troy Merritt
Andrew Novak
S.Y. Noh
Brandt Snedeker
Joel Dahmen
Martin Trainer
Maverick McNealy
Brendon Todd
Pierceson Coody
Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x2)
Two of the three Par 5’s at Port Royal Golf Course range between 500-550 Yards.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Michael Kim
Ben Taylor
Seamus Power
Kevin Tway
Austin Smotherman
Ryan Brehm
S.H. Kim
Cameron Champ
Ben Griffin
Kevin Dougherty
Birdies or Better Gained
To be in contention at Port Royal Golf Course this week, players must capitalize on every scoring opportunity.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Sam Stevens
Matti Schmid
Justin Lower
Rico Hoey
Mackenzie Hughes
Jacob Bridgeman
Ben Griffin
Carson Young
Trace Crowe
Nico Echavarria
Comparable Courses and Event History
According to the Data Golf Course History Tool, previous experience at Port Royal Golf Course has shown to be slightly beneficial for players.
Leaders in this category (Multiple Events Played, Average Score Per Round):
Kevin Yu
Ben Griffin
Brendon Todd
Justin Lower
Tyson Alexander
Adam Long
Alex Smalley
Matti Schmid
Tyler Duncan
Lanto Griffin
The Field:
This year’s Butterfield Bermuda Championship will feature a total of 120 competitors.
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Top 125 FedExCup Fall Point Lists
Tournament Winner in Past Two Seasons
Top 30 on the FedExCup Playoffs & Eligibility Points List
Top 70 on Prior Year FEC Playoff & Elig List through the Playoffs
DP World Tour / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category – Reordered
Reorder Category – Cat. 37 thru 44
Top 10 and Ties from the Previous Event
Major Medical Extension
Designated Sponsor Exemption
Sponsors Exemptions – PGA TOUR Member not otherwise exempt
Sponsor Exemptions: DPWT / Korn Ferry Tour / Q-School Category
Career Money Exemption
Open Qualifying
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Camilo Villegas (’23), Seamus Power (’22), Brendon Todd (’19)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Adrien Dumont de Chassart, Alejandro Tosti, Blaine Hale, Jr., Brandt Snedeker, Cameron Champ, Chez Reavie, Christo Lamprecht, Connor Jones, Daniel Berger, Egor Eroshenko, Ethan Cairns, Francesco Molinari, George Bryan, Graeme Robertson, Hayden Springer, Jacob Bridgeman, James Hahn, Joel Dahmen, Kevin Dougherty, Kevin Kisner, Kevin Streelman, Mackenzie Hughes, Michael Herrera, Miles Russell, Nick Jones, Norman Xiong, Paul Barjon, Pierceson Coody, Raul Pereda, Rico Hoey, Ryan McCormick, Ryo Hisatsune, Taylor Montgomery, Tom Whitney, Trace Crowe, Tyler Collet, Wilson Furr
Sponsors Exemptions:
George Bryan IV, Wesley Bryan, Miles Russell, Christo Lamprecht, Graeme Robertson, Connor Jones, Camiko Smith, Nick Jones, Eric West, Chris Baker, Ben Crane, D.A. Points
Will There Be a Playoff at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship? (Yes +350 / No -500)
Of the five editions of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, the tournament has only been decided by a playoff once. It was back in 2020 when Brian Gay defeated Wyndham Clark.
Total Risk on the Butterfield Bermuda Championship: 3.20 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
We have a GREAT show for you today! Another week in the books and now it’s time to recap and do some analysis! First, Kiev recaps the weekend with the good, the bad, and the ugly. Next, we talk some misleading final scores with brief box score analysis. Then, Kiev talks about the NFL and College Football betting spots for next week. Who could let down? Who has a short week? After that, we give out a Free Play for the upcoming weekend. Finally Dave comes back as we break down some fantasy football. We talk key injuries, waiver wire, sleepers and busts! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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ALLEN PARK, MICHIGAN - JULY 28: Detroit Lions head football coach Dan Campbell speaks with the media before the Detroit Lions Training Camp on July 28, 2021 in Allen Park, Michigan. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
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Vikings vs Jaguars +7 O/U 43
Hit it! Return of the Mack. It is. Return of the Mack. Come on. Return of the Mack.. Ok look, this line went from +4 to +7 with the announcement of Trevor Lawrence being doubtful. I know how bad Mack Jones has looked in the past, but to give him some credit, his offensive coordinators were Matt Patricia and Bill O’Brien. Hot garbage if you ask me. Looking at the way Trevor has been playing this year, I highly doubt that this downgrade warrants a full three points to +7. It is true that the Jags can’t stop anyone on defense, but they at least rank 17th in offensive EPA. The Vikings offense hasn’t exactly been lighting it up lately. Since week 6, the Vikings rank 19th in offensive EPA and 15th on defense. They got smashed by the Rams in a true away game. As a matter of fact, the Vikings are 6.2 yards per play at home and only 5.3 on the road. Jacksonville is a LEAGUE LEADING 7.2 yards per play at home. I think that this spot for the Vikes could be a little flat. Maybe Josh Hines Allen gets to Sam Darnold a few times today. Mack Jones is literally playing for his future in the NFL. Grab the points.
Jaguars +7 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Eagles to -1 with the Chargers to -1. I do not see the Eagles losing against the Cowboys 2nd string. I also believe that Jim Harbaugh keeps their team rolling at home.
