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NCAAB: Ark/Bay
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College Football Saturday Super Plays – Georgia vs Ole Miss – Sports Investing
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Syracuse vs Boston College -2.5 O/U 53
This is the spot of all betting spots in my opinion for the week. Syracuse is coming off of a misleading final score for their big win at home against Virginia Tech. They just became bowl eligible after that and they are probably feeling pretty good about themselves. Boston College is coming off of a loss and a good one vs Louisville. Looking at the metrics, I do not know why this spread is so low. Syracuse is a -.41 yards per play on a schedule ranking 63rd on Sagarin, while Boston College is about even in yards per play with a schedule ranking 47th. Syracuse ranks 74th in offensive EPA while Boston College is close at 80th. On defense it isn’t even close as Boston College is 50th and Syracuse is a nasty 99th. I also can’t trust a team on the road when they have a -3 turnover ratio while the home team is +4. The huge situational kicker for me is that Boston College is coming off of a bye week, and Syracuse is in a sizable let down spot. Take the Eagles.
Boston College -1.5 – 3 stars
Georgia vs Ole Miss +2.5 O/U 55
Some say that Alabama vs LSU is the game of the weekend, but I think it is this one. These two teams do not have a lot of recent history as the Dogs blew out the Rebs last year 52-17. From an injury standpoint, both teams are banged up some. Number 1 Rebels WR Tre Harris hasn’t played for Ole Miss in over three weeks, but there is a chance that he could be back. Georgia also has some woe’s at running back with Trevor Etienne banged up. Looking at the numbers, Georgia has two advantages. One is the coach in Kirby Smart. The other advantage is that they played a stronger strength of schedule. In saying that, Ole Miss beat out Georgia in almost every other category. Ole Miss is a net positive 3.3 yards per play to Georgia at 1.72, Ole Miss is number 4 in both offensive and defensive EPA while Georgia ranks 31st and 16th respectively. Ole Miss’s offensive and defensive lines grade out higher than Georgia. While I do wish that this was a night game, at least we get to watch it in the afternoon. I think taking the points in this matchup at home makes the most sense.
Ole Miss +2.5 – 2.5 stars
NHL Preview & Picks – November 8th, 2024
Tonight’s NHL slate is loaded with action, with four games scheduled across the league.
Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the world of NHL wagering, today’s games present numerous enticing angles, including moneylines, puck lines, and prop bets. With teams eager to establish their early-season identities, there’s plenty to consider. Let’s explore the top matchups and uncover the best bets for tonight’s action!
Matchups:
Detroit Red Wings @ Toronto Maple Leafs
- Puck Drop: 7:00 PM ET
- TV Information: TSN4, TVAS-D, FDSNDET, ESPN+
Records & Stats:
| Team | Record | Standings | Home | Away | ATS | O/U |
| Detroit Red Wings | 6-5-1 | 5th Atlantic | 3-3-1 | 3-2-0 | 6-6-0 | 6-6-0 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 7-5-2 | 2nd Atlantic | 5-2-0 | 2-3-2 | 9-5-0 | 5-7-2 |
Odds:
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Detroit Red Wings | +160 | +164 | +1.5 (-155) | o6.0 (-108) |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | -192 | -198 | -1.5 (+130) | u6.0 (-112) |
Starting Goaltenders:
| Team | Goalie | Games Played | Goals Saved Above Expected (Rank) | Save Percentage (Rank) | Goals Against Average (Rank) | Status |
| DET | Cam Talbot | 7 | +6.2 (4th) | .929 (6th) | 2.45 (12th) | CONFIRMED |
| TOR | Anthony Stolarz | 9 | +6.0 (5th) | .928 (7th) | 2.12 (6th) | CONFIRMED |
Team Stats & Trends:
- Detroit are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Toronto.
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Toronto’s last 6 games against Detroit.
- Toronto are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games at home.
Player Stats & Trends:
| Team | Player | Prop | Odds (DraftKings) | Trend |
| TOR | William Nylander | Anytime Goal Scorer | +120 | – Hit in 4/5 Overall – Hit in 6/8 at Home |
| TOR | William Nylander | Over 3.5 Shots on Goal | -135 | – Hit in 6/6 vs DET – Hit in 4/5 at Home |
| TOR | Morgan Rielly | Over 0.5 Points | -120 | – Hit in 5/7 Overall – Hit in 4/6 vs DET – Hit in 3/3 at Home |
| DET | Alex DeBrincat | Over 0.5 Points | -135 | – Hit in 5/6 Overall – Hit in 3/3 vs TOR – Hit in 3/4 on the Road |
| DET | Lucas Raymond | Over 0.5 Points | -142 | – Hit in 5/6 Overall – Hit in 5/5 vs TOR – Hit in 2/2 on the Road |
Best Bets:
- William Nylander Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-135) – DraftKings
Nylander has met his shots-on-goal quota in two of his last four games. He’s averaging 4.0 Shots on Goal and 6.5 Shot Attempts during that span.
Additionally, Nylander has a fantastic track record against Detroit, recording over 3.5 shots on goal in their last six encounters.
This season, Nylander has been much better at home, recording over 3.5 shots on goal in 71.4% of games compared to just 14.3% on the road.
Detroit currently ranks 31st this season for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 33.70 shots. Breaking down the distribution by position, the Red Wings have conceded the 3rd most shots on goal per game to forwards this season with an average of 24.00.
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Washington Capitals
- Puck Drop: 7:30 PM ET
- TV Information: HULU, ESPN+, SN, TVAS
Records & Stats:
| Team | Record | Standings | Home | Away | ATS | O/U |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | 5-8-2 | 7th Metropolitan | 3-3-0 | 2-5-2 | 6-9-0 | 8-6-1 |
| Washington Capitals | 9-3-0 | 3rd Metropolitan | 7-1-0 | 2-2-0 | 8-4-0 | 7-5-0 |
Odds:
| Team | Opening ML | Current ML | Spread | Total |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +136 | +164 | +1.5 (-155) | o6.5 (-115) |
| Washington Capitals | -162 | -198 | -1.5 (+130) | u6.5 (-105) |
Starting Goaltenders:
| Team | Goalie | Games Played | Goals Saved Above Expected (Rank) | Save Percentage (Rank) | Goals Against Average (Rank) | Status |
| PIT | Joel Blomqvist | 6 | +2.2 (19th) | .909 (20th) | 3.46 (54th) | EXPECTED |
| WSH | Charlie Lindgren | 6 | -2.9 (57th) | .896 (39th) | 2.70 (23rd) | CONFIRMED |
Team Stats & Trends:
- Pittsburgh are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
- Washington are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games at home.
Player Stats & Trends:
| Team | Player | Prop | Odds (DraftKings) | Trend |
| WSH | Connor McMichael | Over 0.5 Points | -148 | – Hit in 9/12 Overall – Hit in 6/6 at Home |
| WSH | Connor McMichael | Over 2.5 Shots on Goal | -125 | – Hit in 4/5 Overall – Hit in 4/4 at Home |
| WSH | Alex Ovechkin | Anytime Goal Scorer | +115 | – Hit in 5/5 Overall – Hit in 5/7 vs PIT – Hit in 5/5 at Home |
| WSH | Alex Ovechkin | Over 3.5 Shots on Goal | -110 | – Hit in 4/5 Overall – Hit in 5/7 vs PIT – Hit in 3/4 at Home |
| PIT | Kris Letang | Over 1.5 Shots on Goal | -198 | – Hit in 11/15 Overall – Hit in 5/7 vs WSH – Hit in 8/9 on the Road |
| PIT | Michael Bunting | Over 1.5 Shots on Goal | -162 | – Hit in 5/6 Overall – Hit in 3/4 vs WSH – Hit in 2/3 on the Road |
Best Bets:
- Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-110) – DraftKings
Ovechkin has met his shots-on-goal quota in four of his last five games. He’s averaging 3.8 Shots on Goal and 8.8 Shot Attempts during that span.
Additionally, Ovechkin has a great track record against Pittsburgh, recording over 2.5 shots on goal in five of their last seven encounters.
Pittsburgh currently ranks 29th this season for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 32.20 shots. Breaking down the distribution by position, the Penguins have conceded the 4th most shots on goal per game to forwards this season with an average of 23.43.
Additional Bets:
- Vegas Golden Knights (-142) – DraftKings
The Golden Knights are off to a strong start this season with a 9-3-1 record, winning six of their last seven games and scoring at least four goals in all but one of those matchups. Meanwhile, the Kraken are struggling, dropping their last four games and getting outscored 4-15 over that stretch. I expect the Golden Knights to keep their momentum going tonight and capitalize on a Kraken team in a slump.
- Matt Boldy over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+105) – DraftKings
Boldy has hit his shots-on-goal mark in three of his last five games, averaging 4.0 shots on goal and 7.0 shot attempts in that span. This season, he’s been especially consistent on the road, surpassing 2.5 shots on goal in each of his last four away games.
Boldy also has a solid record against Anaheim, with over 2.5 shots on goal in three of their last five matchups. Anaheim currently ranks last in the league for shots on goal allowed per game, averaging 35.3. Breaking it down further, the Ducks have allowed the most shots on goal per game to forwards this season, averaging 26.08.
Promotions/ Sources:
Linemate – Player/ Team Props
I’ve been using Linemate since the start, and it has proven to be an invaluable resource for NHL betting. One of its standout features is the comprehensive data and analytics that help bettors make informed decisions when placing prop bets. The platform also boasts a user-friendly interface, making it accessible for both experienced bettors and newcomers alike, allowing them to easily navigate and find the best prop bets. By utilizing Linemate’s robust tools and resources, NHL prop betters can significantly enhance their chances of making profitable wagers throughout the season. Beyond NHL betting, Linemate also provides in-depth data on various other sports, including the NFL, MLB, NBA, NCAAF, EPL, and many more leagues and sports.
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Shot Propz – Charts
- Shots on Goal (SOG) Against by Position
- Shot Attempts (SAT) Against by Position
- Goals Against (GA) by Position
- Team Offensive Stat Overview
- Team Defensive Stat Overview
- Team Hits and Blocks
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
College Football Friday Freebie – Sports Betting – Iowa vs UCLA
You can bet these lines right here at MyBookie! https://www.theoddsbreakers.com/mybookie USE PROMO CODE Football24 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY FOOTBALL PACKAGE For the rest of the 2024/2025 SEASON! ALSO GET 50% FOR YOUR FIRST MONTH FOR ANY MONTHLY SUBSCRIPTION Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires december 31st 2024 Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel: https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks Follow Kiev O’Neil’s NEW personal FREE PICKS telegram Channel: https://t.me/KievONeil To get Kiev's premium winners, and to support his hard work at The OddsBreakers, please Click here to get his no obligation membership packages!!! We believe in getting the best of the number and it is the only way that we do business! Kiev O'Neil's Sports Betting Stats and Records! 56% 139-109-5 up 22 units in the 2023 NFL Season! 55% 101-82-8 up 10 units in 2024 MLB Thus Far on 8/05/24! 2024 MLB Season 111-93-11 up 8.3U 2023 MLB Season 146-123-7 up 11U 2023/2024 College Basketball up 9U 63% for 2022/2023 NBA sides and totals! 22-13 up 6.5 units. 14% ROI 55% All Time NFL Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 5.21% ROI 56% 2022/2023 NFL Season 136-109-11 in Sides/Totals/Teasers/Season props up 38.5U 55% All Time College Football Sides, Teasers, Parlays, Props and Totals! 4.75% ROI 63% FOR 2022 COLLEGE BOWL SEASON UP 27 UNITS! 54% Lifetime All Plays in College Basketball 3% ROI 38% Lifetime UFC On All Plays 3% ROI 62% 2022 March Madness College Basketball Plays at 30% ROI!!!
Iowa vs UCLA +6.5 O/U 44.5
This is going to be a fun friday night game. UCLA after a rough start has rolled two big 10 teams in Rutgers and Nebraska. They are playing with a lot of belief in their coach Deshaun Foster and it really shows. In saying that, this team is really stepping up here in competition. Iowa is coming in hot at 6-3 with momentum. This team has improved their offense this year to 73rd in EPA while their defense ranks 30th. UCLA ranks 96th in EPA and 86th on defense respectively. The way to beat Iowa is to run the ball as that this year is the Hawkeye’s weakness, but unfortunatley this is also the Bruin’s weakness on offense ranking 132nd in rushing play success rate and 128th in yards per rush. Iowa has really improved their stats when they switched quarterback from Cade McNamera to Brendan Sullivan. His completion percentage is 69% compared to only 60 with Cade who also was able to pad some of that in the early non-conference games. Iowa wins the turnover battle here at a +10 ratio this year to -5 for the Bruins. UCLA is in a let down spot after beating Nebraska last week on the road. Take the Hawkeyes below the 7.
Iowa -6.5 – 2 stars
NFL Week 10 Sharp Money Movement
As Of Thursday 11/7
Sharp Money On:
- Broncos +9.5 to +7.5 at the Chiefs – 48% tickets and 58% of the money.
- Vikings -4 to -7 at the Jaguars – 84% tickets and 94% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
- Steelers vs Commanders over 43.5 to 45 – 81% tickets and 86% of the money.
- 49ers vs Buccaneers over 46.5 to 50.5 – 68% tickets and 68% of the money. Buyback now
- Dolphins vs Rams over 48 to 50.5 – 67% tickets and 73% of the money.
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College Football Week 11 Sharp Money Movement
As Of Wednesday 11/6
Sharp Money On:
- Rice +10.5 to +9.5 at Memphis – 40% tickets and 79% of the money.
- Cincinnati -2.5 to -4.5 hosting West Virginia – 86% tickets and 90% of the money.
- Clemson -4.5 to -6.5 at Virginia Tech – 80% tickets and 90% of the money.
- South Carolina -1.5 to -3.5 at Vanderbilt – 45% tickets and 79% of the money.
- Indiana -11.5 to -14.5 hosting Michigan – 78% tickets and 82% of the money.
Sharp Totals:
- FAU vs East Carolina over 50.5 to 57 – 51% tickets and 74% of the money.
- Minnesota vs Rutgers over 45.5 to 46.5 – 94% tickets and 96% of the money.
- Florida vs Texas under 52.5 to 47.5 – 68% tickets and 79% of the money.
- Michigan vs Indiana over 45.5 to 49.5 – 96% tickets and 99% of the money.
- Virginia vs Pitt under 61.5 to 57.5 – 44% tickets and 63% of the money.
Podcast 646 – 91 – 24 – With Sean Higgs – NFL Week 10 – Sports Betting
We have a GREAT show for you today! First, Kiev talks about some NFL ATS and Totals trends! Next, Sean comes on and the guys get right into thought on Thursday night football and at which point the Chiefs are finally going to lose a game. Then, Sean and Kiev talk some buy low/sell high teams for the upcoming weeks. After that, the guys get into NFL week 10 with a bunch of Free Plays! Next, it’s time for some beer bet bangers and both Sean and Kiev have a few good ideas for that. Finally, we get into some NFL sharp money movement and recap our plays! Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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Audio Player
NFL Week 10 Betting Spots
Let Down Spots:
- The Panthers could let down vs the Giants after the Saints win.
- The Bills could be soft at the Colts after the Miami win.
- The Falcons could throw up on themselves at the Saints after beating the Cowboys.
- UCLA could let down hosting Iowa after beating Nebraska.
Get Up Spots:
- The 49ers better get up at the Buccaneers.
- The Texans need to do well hosting the Lions.
- The Cowboys have a last chance hosting the Eagles.
Look Ahead Spots:
- Bills looking past the Texans to the Chiefs is possible.
Short Rest:
- Chiefs after Monday Night football hosting the Broncos.
- Buccaneers after Monday Night football hosting the 49ers.
Long Rest:
- The Texans after Thursday Night football hosting the Lions.
- The Jets after Thursday Night football at the Cardinals.
- The Steelers at the Commanders after the bye.
- The 49ers at the Buccaneers after the bye.
