Remember when we said that NFL Week 18 is more about motivation than anything else? Well, there a a few things going on here with this game. I think that the big reason that the Bills are favored here is that Josh Allen has a pretty long consecutive starts streak that he doesn’t want to break. How long does he play? I can’t think that it is going to be for more than a quarter as the Bills are locked into the two spot. If everyone remembers, the Bills always seem to be injured come playoff time and this year is an exception. I do not think McDermott will try hard to win this game. The Patriots on the other hand are not thinking about draft pick order. The Bears helped seal that thought this year when they crapped the bed due to poor coaching after having the top draft pick in Caleb Williams. Drake Maye will start this game, and I think that pretty much says it all for the Pats.
Patriots +3.5 – 2 stars
Bonus Play: Chiefs +10.5 – 2 stars – It is true that the Chiefs are locked into the number 1 spot, but these teams still hate each other. I expect Carson Wentz to play well in Denver while the Chiefs prove that they are deep.
This should be a good big 10 game for the first weekend of 2025. The Bruins travel to the Corn Huskers and I am sure that Nebraska won’t be all too welcoming. I like what UCLA has done this year so far with big wins against Oregon, Arizona and Gonzaga, but let’s be real. This team is a big overrated at 17. The Bruins have not played a great non-conference schedule ranking 272nd on Kenpom. This team plays slow, but doesn’t have the ability to play catchup. They only rank 265th in free throw percentage which could bite them in close games. Nebraska on the other hand has done very well from the charity stripe rankng 55th in the nation. They rank 75th in offensive efficiency and 17th on defense. I also like the fact that they have three big guys down low that can take on guys like Tyler Bilodeau and Aday Mara. I expect Nebraska to come out firing and take UCLA out of this team early.
CINCINNATI, OHIO - OCTOBER 04: Joe Burrow #9 of the Cincinnati Bengals celebrates after the 33-25 win against Jacksonville Jaguars at Paul Brown Stadium on October 04, 2020 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.
Friday, Jan. 3
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl: North Texas vs. Texas State -13.5 O/U 62 Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas) Time: 4 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
North Texas’s Motivation: High – They always play close to home and get to beat in state rival.
Texas State’s Motivation: High – They get to beat in state rival.
Home: North Texas is only 46 miles away, but Texas State is only 275 miles. I will give North Texas 1 point here.
Key Guys Missing:
Texas State Transfer Portal
Starting RB Ismail Mahdi (committed to Arizona)
Starting RT Alex Harkey (committed to Oregon)
Starting CB Josh Eaton (committed to Michigan State)
Starting DT Terry Webb (375 snaps)
Starting DT Tavian Coleman (355 snaps)
DT Dominique Ratcliff (318 snaps)
DE Ben Bell (opted out earlier in season)
Texas State Potential Opt-Out
LG Nash Jones
Starting TE Konner Fox didn’t play in the finale. DE Steven Parker (367 snaps) missed the final three games.
It looks as if starting quarterback Jordan McCloud won’t play “significant snaps”.
North Texas Transfer Portal
Starting QB Chandler Morris (committed to Virginia)
Starting WR DT Sheffield (committed to Rutgers)
Starting TE Oscar Hammond (committed to Oregon State)
Starting C Tyler Mercer (committed to Kansas)
LG Leke Asenuga (585 snaps; been injured)
WR Nick Rempert (257 snaps)
RT MaKyi Lee (246 snaps)
S Jayven Anderson (181 snaps)
CB Kerry Williams (113 snaps)
Without Morris, the Mean Green will turn to true freshman Drew Mestemaker, who came in for Morris as the backup this season.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Texas State: GJ Kinne, 1-0
North Texas: Eric Morris, 0-0
Net YPP: Texas State +.86
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: North Texas needs to run the ball to be successful here. They are missing their quarterback, which should signal Texas State to stack the box.
Verdict: Texas State should be able to throw all over North Texas if they can’t control the clock. This game could spiral as well as North Texas won’t be able to play catchup.
Play: Lean North Texas +13.5
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: Minnesota vs. Virginia Tech +9.5 O/U 43 Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina) Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Minnesota’s Motivation: High – PJ Fleck at 4-1 ATS in bowl games gets his kids up to play.
Virginia Tech’s Motivation: Medium – Very disappointing season for the Hokies, but could end on a good note.
Home: Virginia Tech gets a huge bump for being only 176 miles away. 2.5 points of home field.
Key Guys Missing:
Minnesota Transfer Portal
Starting RT Phillip Daniels (signed with Ohio State)
RB Jordan Nubin (60 snaps)
Minnesota Potential Opt-Outs
DE Danny Stiggow
OT Aireontae Ersery (sounds like he won’t play)
DE Jah Joyner
CB Justin Walley (declared for NFL Draft)
OG Tyler Cooper
OL Quinn Carroll said he will play in a bowl, while S Aidan Gousby missed the final three games.
Virginia Tech Transfer Portal
Starting LT Xavier Chaplin (signed with Auburn)
Starting C Braelin Moore (likely to sign with LSU)
Starting CB Mansoor Delane (committed to LSU)
Starting S Mose Phillips (signed with Missouri)
LB Sam Brumfield (378 snaps)
LB Keli Lawson (276 snaps; committed to UCF)
RB Malachi Thomas (168 snaps)
Virginia Tech Opt-Outs
DE Antwaun Powell-Ryland
DT Aeneas Peebles
WR Da’Quan Felton
WR Jaylin Lane
CB Dorian Strong
Tuten, RG Kaden Moore, DT Wilfried Pene and SS Keonta Jenkins all weren’t spotted at a recent practice. Virginia Tech could be down 14 starters.
Keep an eye on Virginia Tech’s QB situation, as both QB1 Kyron Drones and QB2 Collin Schlee ended the year injured. As of Dec. 13, Drones is not expected to play, according to head coach Brent Pry. It will either be Schlee or Pop Watson at QB.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Virginia Tech: Brent Pry, 1-0
Minnesota: PJ Fleck, 4-1
Net YPP: Minnesota +.06
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Both of these teams look quite equal on paper. The problem is all of the opt outs for Virginia Tech. What kind of team will they have to face the Gophers? Minnesota has the better offense and defense.
Verdict: This spread has gotten too large to play the Gophers. Just a lean.
Play: Lean Gophers -9 and under 43. Lean Minnesota team total over 27
Saturday, Jan. 4
Bahamas Bowl: Buffalo vs. Liberty +3 O/U 50.5 Location: Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium (Nassau, Bahamas) Time: 11 a.m. TV Network: ESPN2
Buffalo’s Motivation: Medium Low – No reason to care too much in the Bahamas. Pete Lembo is 0-2 ATS in bowls. Time to party.
Liberty’s Motivation: Medium Low – Also time to party for Liberty. Jamey Chadwell is 0-3 ATS in bowls.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Liberty Transfer Portal
Starting QB Kaidon Salter (signed with Colorado)
Starting LG Jordan White (committed to Vanderbilt)
Starting RT Xavior Gray (committed to Northwestern)
Starting LT Jordan Hall
Starting DL Bryce Dixon
DL Eliyt Nairne (298 snaps; committed to Tulane)
Former App State transfer Ryan Burger will get the start at quarterback. Head coach Jamey Chadwell also stated that players in the portal won’t play in the bowl game and he expects some more opt outs.
Liberty Injuries
Starting S Quinton Reese didn’t play in the finale. Neither did starting TE Bentley Hanshaw.
Buffalo Transfer Portal
K Upton Bellenfant (committed to Texas Tech; still on depth chart)
WR Javien Cuff (210 snaps)
Buffalo Injuries
The Buffalo depth chart for its bowl game remains unchanged from its season finale.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Buffalo: Pete Lembo, 0-2
Liberty: Jamey Chadwell, 0-3
Net YPP: Liberty +1.15
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Liberty shows to be the better team on paper in every EPA category, yet they had a pretty easy schedule. The Mac has been matching up well against other conferences in bowl play.
Verdict: Liberty on their backup quarterback and down 3 starters on the offensive line could really hurt.
We have a great show for you today! Sports galore and we get right into it with some college football bowls! Kiev then has a FCS guest in Bryce Fischer who is a Montana State Alumni and knows a thing or two about FCS football. We talk North Dakota State vs Montana State! Then, Kiev talks NFL week 18 and the motivational spots for the weekend with some Free Plays. Next, we give out our refuse to lose teaser that is 12-5 for the season. After that, Kiev talks some college basketball for the weekend with a few plays. Then, we get into some NFL sharp money movement and recap our plays. Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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The 2025 FedExCup season tees off this week in Hawaii with the “Opening Drive” at The Sentry, held at the iconic Plantation Course at Kapalua. Featuring 60 of the TOUR’s top players, The Sentry serves as the first event of the 2025 FedExCup Regular Season and Playoffs schedule. This year’s field includes four FedExCup Champions, 31 PGA TOUR winners (15 of whom earned their first TOUR title in 2024), and 29 players who finished inside the top 50 of the 2024 FedExCup standings. As the first of eight Signature Events on the schedule, The Sentry brings together PGA TOUR winners from the previous calendar year and the top 50 members from the 2024 standings.
Scottie Scheffler withdrew from The Sentry earlier this week after sustaining a puncture wound to the palm of his right hand during Christmas dinner preparations. According to his manager, Blake Smith, “Scottie suffered the injury from a broken glass, which left small fragments in his hand and required surgery.” Scheffler’s recovery is expected to take three to four weeks.
Viktor Hovland is playing through an unusual holiday mishap of his own, having broken his pinky toe on a bed frame. Despite the injury, Hovland remains in the field and is set to compete in this season-opening event.
Chris Kirk
Defending champion Chris Kirk is making his sixth appearance at The Sentry. He will look to become the first player to successfully defend his title at the event since Geoff Ogilvy accomplished the feat in 2010.
The Sentry Tournament of Champions is a prestigious PGA Tour event that brings together winners from the previous calendar year. It was first established in 1953 and initially held at the Desert Inn Country Club in Las Vegas, Nevada, where it remained until 1968. In 1969, the tournament moved to La Costa Resort and Spa in Carlsbad, California, where it was played for nearly three decades. Seeking a more picturesque and unique setting, the tournament relocated in 1999 to its current home, the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort on the island of Maui, Hawaii. Known for its breathtaking views of the Pacific Ocean and its challenging yet scenic layout, the Plantation Course has since become synonymous with the event. The tournament traditionally kicks off the PGA Tour calendar year, offering a relaxed yet competitive atmosphere as champions from the previous year compete against each other. In 2018, Sentry Insurance became the title sponsor, further solidifying the event’s stature on the tour.
The Plantation Course at Kapalua, located on the island of Maui, Hawaii, is one of the most iconic golf courses in the world, renowned for its stunning ocean views and challenging design. Opened in 1991, the course was co-designed by legendary architects Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw, who aimed to create a layout that harmonized with Maui’s natural landscape. Set on the slopes of the West Maui Mountains, the course features dramatic elevation changes, expansive fairways, and wide greens, making it both a strategic challenge and a breathtaking experience for players. The Plantation Course has been the home of the Sentry Tournament of Champions since 1999, hosting PGA Tour winners in a celebrated start to the calendar year. Its distinctive design encourages risk-reward shot-making, with trade winds adding an unpredictable element. Among its most famous holes is the par-5 18th, where players can experience one of the longest drives on the tour thanks to its downhill layout. Over the years, the course has undergone enhancements to maintain its status as one of golf’s premier destinations, most notably in 2019, when Coore and Crenshaw led a major renovation to update its playability and agronomy while preserving its unique character.
Previous Tournament Venues:
Duration
Course
Location
1953-1966
Desert Inn Country Club
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
1967-1968
Stardust Country Club
Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
1969–1998
La Costa Resort and Spa
Carlsbad, California, United States
1999 – Present
Kapalua Resort (Plantation)
Lahaina, Hawaii, United States
Previous Tournament Names:
Duration
Tournament Name
1953-1974
Tournament of Champions
1975-1990
MONY Tournament of Champions
1991-1993
Infiniti Tournament of Champions
1994-2006
Mercedes Championships
2007-2009
Mercedes-Benz Championship
2010
SBS Championship
2011-2016
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
2017
SBS Tournament of Champions
2018-2023
Sentry Tournament of Champions
2024- Current
The Sentry
Tournament Records:
72-Hole Record (The Sentry):
258, Cameron Smith (2022)
Largest Margin of Victory (The Sentry):
13 Strokes – Gene Littler (1955)
Largest Margin of Victory (Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort):
9 Strokes – David Duval (1999)
Most Wins at Event:
5, Jack Nicklaus (1963, 1964, 1971, 1973, 1977)
Course Records:
72-Hole Record (Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort):
258, Cameron Smith (2022)
18-Hole Record (Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort):
61, Jon Rahm (third round, 2022), Justin Thomas (third round, 2022), Matt Jones (final round, 2022), Justin Rose (final round, 2024)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort is the only par 73 on the PGA Tour schedule and is a bomber’s paradise, stretching roughly 7,600 yards. It features four par 5s, each playing over 525 yards, including the 18th hole, which measures an astounding 677 yards. Despite the course’s length, elevation changes significantly impact how it plays, allowing some players to reach the 18th in two shots.
The course’s primary defense is its exposure to coastal winds and dramatic elevation changes, which create challenging blind approach shots. In fact, the Plantation Course has the most substantial elevation changes of any course on tour.
The three Par 3’s range from 161 to 219 yards. Last year, all of the par 3’s had a scoring average under par.
No. 2, 219 yards, Par 3: The second hole is a crossing downwind par three to a large green angled from left to right. The tilt of the green plus the direction and force of the wind favor shots that fade and are played with finesse. Running approaches are encouraged and rewarded here.
No. 8, 199 yards, Par 3: The eighth is a middle iron par three playing across a native canyon to a receptive green. The green that slopes back- to-front and right-to-left was built to hold and nurse the ball to the left, given the strong trade winds from the right.
No. 11, 161 yards, Par 3: The last par three of the course demands and rewards thought and finesse. The desired tee shot is a short iron that either “cuts” and “holds” into the wind blowing from the player’s right shoulder or one that allows for drift and uses the approach and slope of the green for assistance. A shot flown directly to the back left pin will not likely be tried more than once as holding the green is very tough due to the difficulty in holding the sloping green.
The Plantation Course has 11 par 4s, most of which measure between 400 and 450 yards. Last year, the toughest par 4—and the only hole to play over par—was the first, with a scoring average of +0.059.
No. 1, 520 yards, Par 4: The opening hole at The Plantation Course introduces the character, scale and drama of the course about to be played. It is a downhill, downwind par four of immense proportion. An adequate tee shot assisted by the wind and slope should leave a middle-to-long iron approach to an expansive and welcoming green that slopes from left to right. The difficulty of this hole is more psychological than physical.
No. 6, 424 yards, Par 4: Another hole representative of earlier architectural forms, the sixth is a spectacular and mysterious par four affording alternate routes to the green. Playing through strong crossing winds from the right, the ideal tee shot is one played more dangerously, powerfully and accurately across the cliffs to the right side of the fairway. From there, the player will be afforded an adequate view of the green. Those choosing the more conservative left-side route will have to play their approaches to a green unseen over the hill. Check the hole location as there is a spine that runs down the middle of the green, and if you are on the wrong side a 2 putt will be a premium.
No. 13, 383 yards, Par 4: One of the most difficult par fours on the course, the thirteenth is a long hole made longer and more difficult by the prevailing trade winds. Low, boring tee shots and long iron or fairway wood approaches are necessary to reach this deep and deceptive green in regulation. Putts numbering three or more will also be commonplace given the green’s size and slope and the wind’s effects.
The four par 5s—No. 5, No. 9, No. 15, and No. 18—are critical scoring opportunities, with all averaging under par in 2024.
No. 5, 526 yards, Par 5: The fifth hole of The Plantation Course is a natural and daring par five that slopes from left to right all the way. A bunker was added in the middle of the fairway during the 2019 refinement. An example of the classical “cape” concept of golf architecture, the fairway culminates at a green perched on a peninsula high above the canyon that borders the entire right side of the hole. The nature of the hole entices the player to “have a go” after a fine drive. Courage, but not foolhardiness, is rewarded here.
No. 18, 677 yards, Par 5: One of the most famous holes in all of golf, 18 is the hole around which the rest of the course was created. The eighteenth is an extremely long downhill, downwind par five. Despite its length, the hole is made reachable in two powerful blows by the assisting winds and slope. The fairway and green are large and receptive, yet difficult to judge, owing to the vast panorama and scale of the background. The eighteenth is probably the most scenic, spectacular and representative of all the holes at The Plantation Course. Its scale and drama are uncommon and its challenge is within reason, while its surrounding beauty is unparalleled.
As The Sentry takes place at Kapalua Resort, here are the key statistics to keep an eye on for this week’s event.
Statistics
PGA Tour Average
Kapalua Resort (Plantation)
Driving Distance (Yards)
283.67
293.10
Driving Accuracy
62%
72%
GIR Percentage
66%
79%
Avg GIR Prox to Hole (Feet)
29.08
35.42
Scrambling Percentage
58%
58%
Avg 3 Putts / Round
0.55
0.70
Per DataGolf, this is the favored skillset for the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort.
Driving Distance
The course’s wide fairways and downhill holes favor players who can hit long, high drives. The par-5 18th, for example, often produces some of the longest drives on the PGA Tour.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Byeong Hun An
Chris Gotterup
Wyndham Clark
Jhonattan Vegas
Taylor Pendrith
Max Greyserman
Stephan Jaeger
Ludvig Aberg
Jake Knapp
Justin Thomas
Strokes Gained: Approach
A strong iron game is crucial for success on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort, as demonstrated by recent tournament history.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Tony Finau
Xander Schauffele
Nick Dunlap
Eric Cole
Aaron Rai
Taylor Pendrith
Harry Hall
Viktor Hovland
Jhonattan Vegas
Sepp Straka
Strokes Gained: Around the Green
The large greens and sloping terrain mean missed approaches often leave challenging recovery shots. Players with strong short-game skills can save crucial pars.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Harry Hall
Tony Finau
Justin Thomas
Hideki Matsuyama
Adam Scott
Collin Morikawa
Denny McCarthy
Cameron Young
Cam Davis
J.T. Poston
Strokes Gained: Total (Moderate Conditions)
The Plantation Course is exposed to trade winds, which can significantly impact ball flight. Players who can adjust to changing wind conditions and control their trajectory tend to perform well.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Adam Scott
Denny McCarthy
Viktor Hovland
Sahith Theegala
Xander Schauffele
Will Zalatoris
Harry Hall
Sam Burns
Patrick Cantlay
Corey Conners
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
The Greens on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort are TifEagle bermudagrass. The greens at Kapalua are expansive and feature significant contours. Success often depends on mastering long lag putts and converting mid-range opportunities on the grainy Bermuda grass.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Thomas Detry
Denny McCarthy
Max Greyserman
Jason Day
Collin Morikawa
Davis Riley
Xander Schauffele
Taylor Pendrith
Akshay Bhatia
Russell Henley
Par 4 Scoring
Par 4 scoring is crucial at Kapalua because the Plantation Course only features three par 3s and four par 5s, leaving a majority of the holes—11 in total—as par 4s. While the par 5s offer excellent scoring opportunities, the par 4s are where the tournament is often won or lost. Many of these par 4s are unique, featuring dramatic elevation changes, wide fairways, and challenging approach shots into large, undulating greens. Players who can consistently take advantage of the shorter par 4s while managing the longer, more difficult ones can separate themselves from the field.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Russell Henley
Adam Scott
Max Greyserman
Robert MacIntyre
Xander Schauffele
Maverick McNealy
Patrick Cantlay
Collin Morikawa
Sungjae Im
Hideki Matsuyama
Par 5 Scoring: 500-550 Yards (x3)
Three of the four par 5s on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort range between 500 and 550 yards, making them reachable in two shots for longer hitters. Capitalizing on these scoring opportunities is essential for staying competitive.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Davis Thompson
Max Greyserman
Byeong Hun An
Adam Hadwin
Justin Thomas
Patton Kizzire
Brice Garnett
Matt Fitzpatrick
Aaron Rai
Denny McCarthy
Birdies or Better Gained
Low scores are a staple of the tournament, with winning scores typically around -25 or better. Players must capitalize on birdie opportunities, especially on the par 4s and par 5s.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Max Greyserman
Sam Burns
Harry Hall
Adam Scott
Taylor Pendrith
Nico Echavarria
Cam Davis
Austin Eckroat
Si Woo Kim
Viktor Hovland
Scrambling Gained
The course features wide fairways but places a premium on precision around the greens. The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort is known for its undulating putting surfaces, deep bunkers, and coastal winds, all of which increase the difficulty of getting up and down when players miss greens.
Leaders in this category in the last 24 Rounds:
Wyndham Clark
Hideki Matsuyama
Harry Hall
Max Greyserman
Eric Cole
Alex Noren
Akshay Bhatia
Justin Thomas
Xander Schauffele
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Proximity Gained: 75-100 & 200+ Yards
The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort sees a significantly higher volume of approach shots from the 75-100 yard and 200-225 yard ranges compared to the PGA Tour average.
Leaders in Proximity Gained 75-100 Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Russell Henley
Hideki Matsuyama
Cam Davis
Davis Riley
Tom Hoge
Nico Echavarria
Taylor Pendrith
Ludvig Aberg
Chris Gotterup
Wyndham Clark
Leaders in Proximity Gained 200+ Yards in the last 24 Rounds:
Max Greyserman
Xander Schauffele
Eric Cole
Austin Eckroat
Justin Thomas
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Harry Hall
Viktor Hovland
Nico Exhavarria
Sam Burns
Comparable Courses and Event History
According to the Data Golf Course History Tool, previous experience on the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort has shown to be beneficial for players.
Leaders in this category (Scoring Average Per Round, Multiple Events Played):
Sungjae Im
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Collin Morikawa
Tom Hoge
Sepp Straka
Sahith Theegala
Cameron Young
Xander Schauffele
Brian Harman
Patrick Cantlay
The Field:
Here is the current basis of qualification for each entrant this week:
Current Tournament Winners
Top 50 on Prior Year’s FedExCup Points List
Previous Winners in the Field (Event):
Chris Kirk (2024), Justin Thomas (2020, 2017), Xander Schauffele (2019)
Debutants in the Field (Event):
Aaron Rai, Alexander Noren, Austin Eckroat, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Christopher Gotterup, Davis Thompson, Harry Hall, Jake Knapp, Kevin Yu, Matt McCarty, Matthieu Pavon, Maverick McNealy, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap, Rafael Campos, Robert MacIntyre, Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Pendrith, Thomas Detry
Will There Be a Playoff at The Sentry? (Yes +350 / No -500)
The last playoff at The Sentry occurred in 2021 when Harris English defeated Joaquin Niemann. Since the tournament’s move to the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in 1999, there have been a total of eight playoffs.
Previous Winners Scores, Prices, and Strokes Gained (Rank at Tournament):
2024: Chris Kirk (-29)
Price: 150-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Chris Kirk
26th
6th
14th
1st
11th
2023: Jon Rahm (-27)
Price: 7-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Jon Rahm
2nd
3rd
32nd
3rd
1st
2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
Price: 28-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Cameron Smith
1st
3rd
7th
7th
1st
2021: Harris English (-25)
Price: 33-1
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Harris English
8th
13th
12th
25th
1st
2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
Price: 11-2
SG: Off the Tee
SG: Tee to Green
SG: Approach
SG: Around the Green
SG: Putting
Justin Thomas
6th
2nd
2nd
8th
13th
Previous Winners Incoming Form (Last 5 Starts):
2024: Chris Kirk
T28 – RSM Classic (PGA)
MC – World Wide Technology Championship (PGA)
T29 – BMW Championship (PGA)
T16 – FedEx St. Jude Championship (PGA)
MC – Wyndham Championship
2023: Jon Rahm
T8 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
T4 – THE CJ CUP in South Carolina (PGA)
WON – DP World Tour Championship (EUR)
WON – acciona Open de Espana (DPWT)
T2 – BMW PGA Championship (DPWT)
2022: Cameron Smith
T4 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T15 – Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open (PGA)
T9 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T14 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
T34 – BMW Championship (PGA)
2021: Harris English
T5 – Mayakoba Golf Classic (PGA)
T6 – The RSM Classic (PGA)
T28 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
10 – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
MC – Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (PGA)
2020: Justin Thomas
T5 – Hero World Challenge (PGA)
T17 – ZOZO Championship (PGA)
WON – THE CJ CUP (PGA)
T4 – Safeway Open (PGA)
T3 – TOUR Championship (PGA)
Previous Winners Finishes at Event:
2024: Chris Kirk
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
2016
2015
2014
2012
Chris Kirk
T24
T14
T16
T7
2023: Jon Rahm
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
Jon Rahm
2
T7
10
T8
2
2022: Cameron Smith
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
2021
2018
Cameron Smith
T24
T17
2021: Harris English
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
2014
Harris English
T11
2020: Justin Thomas
Sentry Tournament of Champions
Sentry Tournament of Champions
SBS Tournament of Champions
Hyundai Tournament of Champions
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort
2019
2018
2017
2016
Justin Thomas
3
T22
WON
T21
Picks:
Outrights
Sungjae Im (+1800) – FanDuel/ DraftKings
Sahith Theegala (+2800) – FanDuel
Akshay Bhatia (+3500) – FanDuel
Brian Harman (+5500) – FanDuel
Nico Echavarria (+12000) – FanDuel
Top 20 (Inc. Ties)
Max Greyserman (+105) – DraftKings
Eric Cole (+150) – DraftKings
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
A huge thanks to Stuckey from The Action Network for providing data on transfers, opt-outs, and injuries.
PLAYOFFS (part 2)
Tuesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
Penn State vs. Boise State +11 O/U 54 Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona) Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Penn State:
OL Anthony Donkoh may miss with injury
DT Alonzo Ford may miss with injury
Boise State:
None
Coach Bowl ATS:
Boise State: Spencer Danielson, 0-1
Penn State: James Franklin, 8-5
Net YPP: Penn State +.92
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Penn State not only shows better than Boise State in all of the advanced metrics, they also had a harder strength of schedule ranking 44th to Boise’s 85th. Boise State’s defense is pretty suspect when playing better teams, although they have improved throughout the season.
Verdict: James Franklin is great when he is a favorite of more than 7. Strong lean to Penn State at this number, but I won’t get involved as my power ratings are right on.
Play: Lean Penn State -11
Wednesday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Texas vs. Arizona State +13 O/U 52 Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta) Time: 1 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: Texas will get two points in SEC/ACC Country
Key Guys Missing:
Arizona State:
Top WR Jordyn Tyson with a collar bone fracture
Texas:
WR Isaiah Bond is questionable with an ankle sprain.
OL Kelvin Banks is questionable with an ankle sprain.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Texas: Steve Sarkisian, 3-4
Arizona State: Kenny Dillingham, 0-0
Net YPP: Texas +1
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Arizona State’s weakness is definitely on defense where they rank 69th in success rate and 56 in opponent pass EPA. Texas really doesn’t have a weakness minus their inconsistency in many games. Texas’s offensive line yards only ranks 77th which doesn’t feel like championship caliber.
Verdict: Believe it or not, the strength of schedule doesn’t rank much differently on Sagarin with Texas at 20th and ASU at 39th. The big injury to number 1 wide receiver Jordyn Tyson of the Sun Devils could play a factor here. However, I also said that in their Iowa State game where ASU blew them out. I think that ASU could score first here and I think a prop could make sense as Dillingham is such a great coach, especially in the first half. Texas in theory should be able to stop Cam Skattebo on the ground, but they do have a weakness only ranking 52nd in defensive success rate. My number on this game is Texas -12.25, but I will wait and play either the side on ASU or the total. With Quinn Ewers inconsistency, I think the Devils could shock the Long horns here.
Play: 1st half over 26.5 looks good for a small play as I think both teams score. I will also wait and play ASU +14 or better or ASU 1st half +7 or better.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon +2.5 O/U 55.5 Location: Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California) Time: 5 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Ohio State:
C Seth McLaughlin is out
OT Josh Simmons is out.
Oregon:
OL Matthew Bedford
Coach Bowl ATS:
Oregon: Dan Lanning, 1-1
Ohio State: Ryan Day, 3-4
Net YPP: Ohio State +1.08
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: Ohio State should be able to run the ball against Oregon ranking 8th in rush EPA to Oregon ranking 88th, but we also have to keep in mind that most of these stats were accumulated before center Seth McLaughlin was injured. Oregon plays a bend don’t break defense that tightens up in the red zone, so I won’t punish them for that. Everything else on these teams are pretty equal.
Verdict: The first game was really a coin flip game in Oregon. I think this Rose Bowl feels the same way. I have these teams equally power rated. Maybe Ohio State gets the edge at running the football, but Oregon ain’t no slouch on defense ranking 25th in opponent EPA and success rate. I would take a 3 on either side if one pops. Where Oregon I think has the edge is that Danny Lanning has proven to be the more trustworthy coach. I also think the quarterback edge goes to Dillon Gabriel. I have no play right now, but might do something personal on Oregon.
Play: Lean Oregon and lean the live over. I also might look at a 1st half under as both teams will be quite careful with the ball.
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Notre Dame vs. Georgia -2 O/U 44 Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans) Time: 8:45 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
All Motivated.
Home: Slight for Georgia at -.5 vs Notre Dame
Key Guys Missing:
Georgia:
QB Carson Beck
DL Christian Miller is questionable
DL Joseph Jonay-Ajonye is out since Oct 31st
Notre Dame:
Team Captain DT Rylie Mills out for the season.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Georgia: Kirby Smart, 9-3
Notre Dame: Marcus Freeman, 2-0
Net YPP: Notre Dame +1.12
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: There is nothing more key than Georgia losing QB Carson Beck to injury. Even in saying that, I do not know how Georgia is favored here as Notre Dame beats them in all the main categories. They rank 8th in offensive EPA, to Georgia ranking 28th. The Irish rank 2nd in defensive EPA to Georgia ranking 35th.
Verdict: The injury to captain Rylie Mills is rough for the Irish, but it doesn’t compare to Georgia losing Carson Beck. The Irish also have a lot of depth on their team. Everyone in the SEC feels confident about backup Gunner Stockton, but let’s be real here. The stage get’s much bigger come game-time, and I believe that he will make more mistakes than he even thinks he will at this time. Coach Marcus Freemen and Defensive coordinator Al Golden will attack Georgia’s quarterback with many different blitz packages and looks. Irish quarterback Riley Leonard has been very poised over the past few months. He isn’t making bad mistakes and that will be huge here. I think the Irish win this game and It could be a blowout.
Notre Dame +2 – 3 stars
Thursday, Jan. 2
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl: Duke vs. Ole Miss -17 O/U 51.5 Location: EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida) Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Network: ESPN
Duke’s Motivation: Medium – They get to play an SEC team, but they lost their quarterbacks to transfer.
Ole Miss’s Motivation: Medium – Not a rewarding bowl for a team that should have made the playoffs, but Lane Kiffen might want to make a statement here for being snubbed in the playoffs.
Home: None
Key Guys Missing:
Ole Miss Transfer Portal
Starting CB Jadon Canady
Starting RT Micah Pettus (committed to FSU)
S Louis Moore (297 snaps)
Third-string QB Walker Howard (committed to Louisiana)
RT Preston Cushman *(64 snaps)
Ole Miss Opt-Outs
LB Chris Paul Jr.
Ole Miss Potential Opt-Outs
WR Juice Wells
WR Tre Harris (also dealing with injury)
DE Princely Umanmielen (plans to play)
DE Jared Ivey (plans to play)
DT Walter Nolen (plans to play)
CB Trey Amos confirmed he’ll play, as did QB Jaxson Dart.
Ole Miss Injuries
S Yam Banks and S Louis Moore didn’t play in the finale. RB Henry Parrish and WR Tre Harris finished the year injured.
Duke Transfer Portal
Starting RB Star Thomas
Backup QB Grayson Loftis
Duke Opt-Outs
Starting QB Maalik Murphy (committed to Auburn)
Henry Belin IV will start.
Duke Potential Opt-Outs
WR Jordan Moore
CB Chandler Rivers
Duke head coach Manny Diaz said he doesn’t expect any opt-outs.
Duke Injuries
Starting CB Kimari Robinson and RB Peyton Jones didn’t play in the finale.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Duke: Manny Diaz, 0-2
Ole Miss: Lane Kiffin, 3-4
Net YPP: Ole Miss +2.21
Basic Stats:
Key Stats: There is nothing more Key than Duke playing without a known quarterback. Ole Miss is the best team that didn’t make the playoffs statwise ranking 5th in offensive EPA and 8th in defensive EPA. Maybe this spread should be 30.
Verdict: I have no clue how good Duke backup Henry Berlin IV is, but I will say that if he is any good, then maybe he can keep Duke in this game. Ole Miss is also an inconsistent team away from home. In saying that, I might play Ole Miss as I think that this line gets to 20.
