Welcome back to all our loyal TheOddsbreakers.com readers. Hope everyone was able to cash in our free play on Monday and we are back with another College Basketball Free Play for you on Thursday.
Been a crazy betting week for me so far. We went 3-1 on Sunday, had a 6-0 Sweep on Monday, a 0-5 reverse sweep on Tuesday and then went 7-1-1 last night. Same methods, different results, but long term things working out just fine with a 79-52-1 run right now +41.3 Units.
Today we look to Bozeman, Montana where Montana St. will host Idaho St. at Worthington Arena at 8:00 CT
Idaho St. enters the match-up at 10-9 overall and 3-3 in Big Sky conference play splitting four games at home and a pair on the road. For the most part they have played the teams at the bottom of the Big Sky Standings with the exception of a solid effort in an overtime loss to Portland St at home on Jan 3. Last time out they got throttled at home, losing by 18 to Eastern Washington on Saturday. Their strength is on the offensive side of the ball where they shoot 35.7% from distance and 54.5% inside. On defense they have a solid track record defending the three point shot this season, but have struggled stopping teams inside especially dribble penetration. Teams are shooting 55.4% against them inside the arc. They have played a weaker slate of teams year to date compared to Montana State and only have one win over a team in the top 200 of KENPOM beating Idaho last Thursday at home.
Montana St. comes in at 11-8 on the season and 5-1 in Big Sky play. The only loss in conference play was on the road to Idaho where they couldn’t get many stops and Idaho made 13 triples. They have a very balanced attack on offense checking in 115th in the country in effective field goal percentage. The biggest weakness on has been a lack of offensive rebounding and an inability to consistently get to the free throw line. Defensively they are a middle of the road, extremely consistent unit. Only four teams have gotten to 80 points against them this season and one of those games was against a good Utah St. team in overtime.
Montana St. has tons of senior leadership, typically featuring 3-4 Seniors on the floor at any given time. The have a three-headed monster of senior guards with Patrick McMahon, Davian Brown, and Jed Miller all averaging 13+ PPG. Idaho St. is also very well rounded especially with production off the bench where the reserves are averaging 31 PPG. The key to stopping the Idaho St offensive attack for the Bobcats will be to find an answer for their 6’8′ 255LB big man inside Caleb Van De Griend. He leads the Big Sky in Field Goal percentage and is 5th in rebounds per game.
So where does the handicap land tonight? It’s really hard for me to try and play against the Bobcats at home. They are 17-4 there since the start of last year and they’ve won five straight at Worthington Arena this season with an average margin of victory of ten points against D1 opponents. Matt Logie, the Head Coach for Montana St. is 4-1 against Idaho St. and they’ve beaten the Bengals in 13 of their last 14 contests. Another fun fact in this one, the team favored in this series (Usually the Bobcats) is 9-0-1 against the spread in the last ten contests.
With both these teams liking to play slow and settle into the offense it’s really going to come down to who can perform best in the half-court parts of the game. In Big Sky play even against stronger opponents, the Bobcats look way better than the Bengals especially on the defensive side of the ball. They hold a big edge in conference only defensive efficiency against the stronger conference schedule thus far. They held the second best offense in the Big Sky, Montana to 43% shooting and forced 15 turnovers at home on Saturday. They’ll be the team that gets the most stops, and that should lead to a comfortable second half advantage and a cover in this one.
Montana St. -6, 2 Units
