🏈🔥 #7 Ole Miss Rebels at #19 Texas Longhorns Preview
Ole Miss vs Texas -3.5 O/U 53.5
📍 DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium | Austin, TX
🗓️ Saturday, Oct. 24
📺 ABC | 6:30 PM CT [texasfootb…chedule.us], [texaslonghorns.com]
🚨 Game Overview
This is a massive SEC showdown featuring a surging#7 Ole Miss squad (5-1) against a desperate#19 Texas team (4-2) looking to snap a two-game losing streak. [bing.com], [espn.com], [puntandrally.com]
The matchup pits:
⚔️ Ole Miss’ explosive offense
🛡️ Texas’ elite defense
Something has to give.
📊 Advanced Stats Matchup
🔴 Ole Miss Offense
✅ 37.5 PPG
✅ 51% Offensive Success Rate (#8)
✅ 52% Rush Success Rate (#6)
✅ 52% Pass Success Rate (#15)
✅ 291 Pass Yards/Game
✅ 4.86 Offensive Scoring Opportunity Points per Trip (#10) [puntandrally.com]
The Rebels consistently stay ahead of the chains and have already picked up ranked wins over LSU and Missouri. [espn.com], [sports-reference.com]
🟠 Texas Defense
✅ 17.8 PPG Allowed
✅ 34% Defensive Success Rate Allowed (#10)
✅ 35% Run Success Rate Allowed (#21)
✅ 34% Pass Success Rate Allowed (#13)
✅ 2.61 Points Allowed per Scoring Opportunity (#13) [puntandrally.com]
Texas doesn’t necessarily create chaos, but they make opponents earn everything.
🎯 Ole Miss Players to Watch
🏈 QB Luke Chambliss
🔥 363 yards vs LSU
🔥 298 yards vs Florida
🔥 Directing one of the SEC’s most efficient offenses. [espn.com]
⚡ Rebels Passing Attack
Ole Miss averages nearly 300 passing yards per game, creating explosive plays at one of the best rates in the country. [puntandrally.com]
🤘 Texas Offense
🏈 QB Arch Manning
✅ 1,295 passing yards entering the matchup
✅ The centerpiece of the Longhorn offense [texaslonghorns.com]
📊 Texas Offensive Metrics
🏈 30.2 PPG
🏈 227 Passing Yards/Game
🏈 135 Rushing Yards/Game
🏈 43% Offensive Success Rate [puntandrally.com]
The Longhorn offense has been good, but not dominant. Texas scored just 24 points in losses to Oklahoma and Florida. [puntandrally.com]
🔑 Key Matchups
🏈 Ole Miss Passing Game vs Texas Secondary
Ole Miss:
- 52% Pass Success Rate
- 291 Pass YPG
Texas Defense:
- 34% Pass Success Rate Allowed
- One of the SEC’s stingiest secondaries
This is the heavyweight battle that likely determines the outcome. [puntandrally.com]
💪 Texas Offensive Line vs Ole Miss Front Seven
Ole Miss ranks outside the national elite defending efficiency, allowing:
- 44% Rush Success Rate
- 44% Pass Success Rate
- 23.8 PPG allowed [puntandrally.com], [sports-reference.com]
If Texas establishes balance, Arch Manning becomes much more dangerous.
📈 Momentum Check
🔴 Ole Miss
✅ Won 5 of 6
✅ Beat LSU
✅ Dominated Missouri 31-3 last week [espn.com], [sports-reference.com]
🟠 Texas
❌ Lost to Oklahoma ❌ Lost to Florida 🏠 Returns home needing a bounce-back performance [puntandrally.com]
📚 Series History
🏆 Texas officially leads the series 6-1.
This is the first meeting between these programs as SEC foes and their first matchup since 2013. [texasfootb…chedule.us]
🎲 Prediction
- This isn’t hard for me. Texas keeps getting way too much respect in the marketplace after one improbable comeback against Ohio State.
- Arch Manning has shown that he can’t handle the pressure both on and off of the field as Texas only ranks 56th in offensive Pass EPA.
- Texas also struggles to run the ball ranking 121st in Rush EPA while the offensive line ranks 134th in havoc.
- Ole Miss has a top 5 offense in success rate and a top offense in EPA ranking 17th in the nation on a schedule that ranks 7th on Sagarin.
- I would rip on the Rebels defense had they not stuffed Missouri last week holding them to only three points.
- Texas is missing two super starts for today in RB Hollywood Smothers and their best defender in Edge Colin Simmons.
- This is NOT a let down spot for Ole Miss as they took care of business against Missouri as favorites.
- The value of this play is the dog as Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss can score against any defense and is a top 5 Heisman candidate. Take the points.
Ole Miss +3.5
North Texas vs Navy +2.5 O/U 61.5
🏈⚓ North Texas Mean Green at Navy Midshipmen Preview
📍 Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium | Annapolis, MD
🗓️ Saturday, Oct. 24
📺 CBS Sports Network
⏰ 3:30 PM ET
🚨 AAC Showdown
This game features two teams with completely opposite styles.
🟢 North Texas (4-2) brings one of the nation’s most explosive passing attacks.
⚓ Navy (2-4) counters with one of the country’s best rushing offenses.
It’s an old-school battle of Air Raid vs Triple Option principles.
📊 Advanced Stats Matchup
🟢 North Texas Offense
🔥 42.2 PPG (#5 FBS)
🔥 533.8 YPG (#3 FBS)
🔥 347 Passing YPG (#2 FBS)
🔥 48% Offensive Success Rate (#28)
🔥 56% Pass Success Rate (#5)
🔥 Explosiveness Rating: #4 nationally (.36)
The Mean Green are lighting up scoreboards and averaging over 500 yards per game.
⚓ Navy Defense
✅ 25.8 PPG Allowed
✅ 98.8 Rush Yards Allowed/Game (#21 FBS)
✅ 37% Defensive Success Rate Allowed (#32)
✅ 34% Run Success Rate Allowed (#17)
The Midshipmen are much better against the run than the pass, which is concerning against a North Texas offense built around quarterback efficiency and explosive plays.
🎯 Mean Green Players to Watch
🏈 QB Tayven Jackson
✅ 1,868 Passing Yards
✅ 15 TDs
✅ 72.2% Completion Rate
✅ Just 4 INTs
Jackson is the engine behind an offense ranking near the top nationally in passing production.
⚡ RB Jahiem White
✅ 687 Rush Yards
✅ 9 TDs
✅ 7.2 Yards Per Carry
The balance he provides makes North Texas extremely difficult to defend.
⚓ Navy Offense
🚂 Ground Game
💪 297.8 Rush Yards/Game (#4 FBS)
💪 52% Rush Success Rate (#4)
💪 3.69 Offensive Line Yards per Carry (#2)
Navy’s formula is simple:
⏳ Control the clock
🏃 Run the football
📉 Limit possessions
🏈 QB Jackson Gutierrez
✅ 644 Rushing Yards
✅ 9 Rushing TDs
✅ 559 Passing Yards
✅ 6 Passing TDs
He’s the ultimate dual-threat within Navy’s option system.
🔑 Key Matchups
🎯 North Texas Passing Attack vs Navy Secondary
North Texas:
- #2 nationally in passing yards
- 56% Pass Success Rate
Navy:
- 247.7 Passing Yards Allowed/Game
- 113th nationally against the pass
💥 Biggest mismatch on the field.
⚓ Navy Run Game vs North Texas Front Seven
Navy:
- #4 Rush Offense
- Nearly 300 rush yards per game
North Texas:
- Allows 142.7 rush yards per game
- Gives up 29.2 PPG
If Navy consistently wins first down, they can shorten this game dramatically.
📈 Hidden Stats
🟢 North Texas
✅ +2 Turnover Margin
✅ 48.8% Third-Down Conversion Rate (#21 FBS)
✅ Scores on 93.9% of Red Zone Trips (#16 FBS)
⚓ Navy
❌ -6 Turnover Margin (#126 FBS)
❌ Opponents convert 44.6% on Third Down (#121 FBS)
Those efficiency numbers heavily favor the Mean Green.
🔥 Keys to Victory
🟢 North Texas
✅ Force Navy into passing situations
✅ Start fast and build a lead
✅ Protect the football
⚓ Navy
✅ Dominate time of possession
✅ Finish drives with touchdowns
✅ Keep Tayven Jackson on the sideline
🎲 Prediction
- This one is a no brainer to me.
- North Texas has been amazing this year behind quarterback Tayven Jackson who has an amazing 173 passer rating.
- Navy is a solid military academy, but this isn’t the Navy of years past. This team lost outright to some pretty bad teams such as UAB and FAU.
- The Mid-shipmen run a modified triple option offense called the Flexbone Triple option with some wing-T elements with some shotgun looks.
- This can work well with the trenches being strong, but this year with a schedule ranking 91st in the nation, Navy still hasn’t been tested.
- North Texas should be able to score at will against this team as they rank 5th in passing success rate to Navy ranking 118th in opponent pass EPA.
- North Texas can stop the un allowing only 3.82 yards per rush.
- The mean green is off the bye and had two weeks to prepare for the option.
- The mean green have had 2 weeks to prepare for Navy’s offense. Take North Texas
North Texas -2.5
