We had a losing week last week in baseball dropping 8.5 Units. It was probably due after the hot month of April we had. We now sit at 128-108-2 on the season overall +53.51 units. Hoping to get us back on track this week and grow the number. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com.
I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA where the Angels (13-22) will host the Chicago White Sox (16-18) at 9:38 ET. The current line sits with the Angels as favorites at -148 (White Sox +138) with an Over/Under of 7.5 Juiced over at -115. Game time temp is 65 degrees with winds blowing out to center at 10mph.
The Angels will roll with Jose Soriano who has been immaculate to start the season for the Angels. In seven starts he sits at 5-1 with a 0.84 ERA and a WHIP at 0.94. The xFIP is still solid at 2.97
The White Sox will start Davis Martin, who has also been extremely solid to begin the season. His ERA is at 1.95 with an xFIP at 3.55 and a WHIP at 1.08.
Both offenses are in the middle of the pack for OPS with the Angels checking in at .712 and the White Sox at .700. The Angels are a little further up on scoring however at 4.51 runs per game while the White Sox are at 4.18 per contest.
Both of these teams have struggled this season once they get into the bullpen. The Angels are 29th in MLB with a 5.62 ERA and have been hurt by injuries to projected key contributors with Robert Stephenson, Kirby Yates and Ben Joyce all sidelined before the season started. The White Sox have been better, but not by much with a bullpen ERA sitting at 4.77 which is good for 24th in MLB.
My handicap today is on some regression to the mean for both these starters, a rough bullpen situation and the winds blowing out at Angel stadium. While the wind factor in LA is usually minimized especially at night it certainly hasn’t seemed to affect the power numbers at Angel Stadium. This ballpark sits 10th from 2023-2025 in Statcast offense departure from the mean and is actually 5th when it comes to Home Runs.
Jose Soriano’s K/9 is at 10.34 right now versus a career average of 8.69. If you look at his pitch values they have been slightly improved, but outside of his slider getting to MLB average rates there is nothing that suggests massive change here. He has been extremely lucky on BABIP (Batting Average Balls In Play) with a .221 rate against him vs a career average of .286. His Stacast hard hit rate is only at 33.7% vs a career average of 45%, and that’s with a barrel rate that is actually above his career norms. His left on base percentage is also currently at 100% vs a career 71.8% so the regression fairies are coming for him at some point. I think it’s tonight.
For Davis Martin it’s a lot of the same. His K-rate sits a 8.03 per 9 innings vs a career number of 7.13 and a full season of starts in 2025 at 6.56. His slider has also been much improved thus far and he’s getting a much higher chase rate as is Soriano. He’s been lucky on the Home Run side so far with only 5.6% of fly balls ending up in the seats despite a Statcast hard hit rate at 48.5%. He is also stranding runners at an abnormally high rate at 86.7%.
Finally both these pitchers just faced these opposing teams in Chicago last week with Martin beating Soriano. I like to think that’s an advantage for the hitters.
Over 7.5 -115 2 Units
