The 2026 Kentucky Derby Thoughts and Plays! Sports Betting

🏇 Core Race Details

• Event: 152nd Kentucky Derby
  
  
• Date: Saturday, May 2, 2026
  
  
• Post Time: 6:57 p.m. ET
  
  
• Location: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
  
  
• Broadcast: NBC (main coverage), Peacock (streaming)
  
  
• Race Number: 12th race on a 14‑race card
  
  
• Purse: $5 million, with $3.1 million to the winner
  
  

This year’s Kentucky Derby field features a dynamic mix of solid contenders and intriguing longshots, setting the stage for a thrilling race. Renegade is the morning line favorite at 4-1 favorite, odds.  He has been very sharp winning three of his last four races, and hitting the board in all five of his races.  His easy win in the Arkansas Derby cemented his status as a top contender, and under the expert guidance of trainer Todd Pletcher.  The Sad thing for this horse is that he drew the 1 hole which no horse has won from since the 1980s.  Commandment, at 6-1 odds, is a major threat in this race who is trained by Brad Cox.  This amazing stalker has won all four of his last four races since November 25th including the Fountain of Youth and the Florida Derby.   Coming out of the six hole, this horse has to be used. 

Further Ado, the Blue Grass winner, is an undeniable talent winning three of his last four races.  He is also trained by Brad Cox, and just like Renegade, won three of his last four races while having the biggest Beyers speed figure at 106 in his last race at Keenland.  Another must use horse.   The horse in the nine hole is named Puma, who rumor has it, has a large Taylor Swift bet on him to win the Derby.  This horse did great in the Florida Derby only to be edged slightly by Commandment.  I will have this horse in my second position in my tries.  Chief Wallabee, is the final big contender who was edged out to third in the Florida Derby in that big photo finish.  I believe that he would have won based on his breeding, if it was a mile and a quarter like we see here at the Kentucky Derby.  Trainer Bill Mott, will put blinkers on this horse as he has seemed to get distracted running down the stretch.  I like the move even though no horse has won the derby over the last 11 times that blinkers were either added or removed.  

My Thoughts: 

The weather is looking brisk in Louisville Kentucky at a high of 57 degrees with low 8 MPH wins.   The key is that we will not have any rain.  My strategy in this race is to look for price.   I think that on a cold day, we could see some of these mid horses hit the board or maybe even take the roses.     

The big problem with Renegade, is that this horse has a crack in his hoof causing him to use a smaller shoe.  I have heard that he also may have some leg problems.  I will scratch him off of my ticket.   I also think that another favorite in So Happy got the perfect trip at Santa Anita, but does not have the pedigree to go 1 1/4 mile in this race.   

My Picks:

I see seven horses that can win, so I am going to go exacta heavy.   I do however like three horses on top of my trifectas due to price and pedigree.  The 7 Danon Bourbon, would normally be a fade horse, but he broke records overseas, and his price at 20-1 is very enticing.  He has the pedigree to win this race with Maxfield as the sire, and Wild Ridge (Tapit) as the dam.   The 12 horse Chief Wallabee, This horse is a Bill Mott horse that will be adding blinkers.  Many think he would have won the Florida Derby if it was one furlong longer.   He was distracted, but the blinkers may help.  The 15 horse Emerging Market, is the final piece to my puzzle.   Flavien Prat is one of the most successful Jockeys at the Derby, and I believe that this horse won his last race at Fair Ground on a tough trip.  The price is just better than the others at 15-1.  

The other horses that can win are the 6 horse Commandment, the 11 horse Incredibolt (who has won two races at Churchill downs), the 9 horse in Puma, and the 18 horse in Further Ado who had the best Beyer’s speed figure at 106.   

The way I am constructing my ticket is based more on Exactas as I can see quite a few winners. The total ticket costs $340 and if you like you can halve those bets and still play the derby for $170.00.   Remember to bet responsibly.  Best of luck to you in all of your plays!  

*tickets will be lower cost without Puma as he now has scratched due a leg issue.

Selections

$1.00 Trifecta

$84.00 TICKET

1st 7-12-15
2nd 6-7-12-15-18
3rd 6-7-8-9-11-12-14-15-18

$10.00 Exacta Box

$60.00 TICKET

Box:  6,9,12

$4.00 Exacta

$72.00 TICKET

1st 7-11-15
2nd 6-7-9-11-12-15-18

$4.00 Exacta

$60.00 TICKET

1st 6-9-12-18
2nd  7-11-15-18

Here I found out that Puma Scratched!

$1.00 Superfecta

$24.00 TICKET

1st 12-15
2nd 12-15
3rd 6-7-8-12-15-18
4th 6-7-8-12-15-18

$10 Exacta

$20.00 TICKET

1st 6-12
2nd 18

$10 Exacta

$20.00 TICKET

1st 18
2nd 6-12

Total ticket cost $340 with refunds coming due to Puma scratch.