The Padres/Rockies game didn’t happen and Baltimore pushed in the first 5 but the Reds and Giants delivered– gotta love a nice parlay to start the week, too! After a lovely 2-1 start, we move on with 4 more plays today:
Reds (+105) and Orioles (+133) win, 1 unit each: Hold on– you’re telling me I get the Reds, who smashed the Pirates yesterday in Pittsburgh, and I get John Means fresh off a no-no against Seattle, for + money? Well like my best buddy from the military used to say– slap my ass and call me Sandy, count me in (it’s not supposed to make sense)! I don’t care if they both lose; this is another shot at value and we can’t not take it. On paper, Pittsburgh’s JT Brubaker (2.78 ERA, 1.14 WHIP over 32.1 innings) has better stats than Cincinnati’s Jeff Hoffman (4.39 ERA, 1.46 WHIP over 26.2 innings). Brubaker has been solid but he’s on a 3 game losing streak and oh by the way, he lost in his first start against this very same Reds team. He’s a good pitcher but he’s not elite. For what it’s worth, Hoffman was only humbled by the White Sox and Dodgers this year, and we all know the Pirates’ bats aren’t in the same universe as the Sox and Dodgers. Baseball is a pitcher’s game but the Reds’ offense is considerably better than their foe today. I’ll gladly take a shot on them winning game 2 at PNC Park.
John Means (1.37 ERA, 0.67 WHIP over 46 innings) takes the mound after commanding a no-hitter last week, the first for Baltimore since 1969. That’s pretty incredible. Means has been incomparable this short season and it’s not a fluke– his velocity is crisp, his BABIP is a career low .158 and he has a 100% LOB percentage. Not bad John, not bad. The Mets send Marcus Stroman (2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP over 34 innings) to the dirt today, who’s been exceptional for New York, but I’m happy to build off Means’ momentum and confidence against a shaky lineup from Queens. The Mets are due some positive regression in a multitude of areas but this isn’t the day to get it.
Rockies win (+150), 1 unit and Rockies/Padres over 10 (-110), 2 units: ESPN has certainly failed me before but according to them and other sites this is still a battle between Dinelson Lamet and Antonio Senzatela. Because that’s the case, I’ll repeat my pick from yesterday and apply it today. Read my analysis from yesterday’s write up to learn why.
