Paulo Costa vs Roman Kopylov -225
Tonight’s UFC 318 co-main event features a compelling middleweight clash between Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov, two fighters with very different trajectories and styles.
🥊 Fighter Breakdown
Paulo Costa (14–4)
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Former title challenger, ranked #13
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Known for explosive power and aggressive pressure
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Has struggled with consistency, going 1–4 in his last five fights
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Last win: Decision over Luke Rockhold in 2022
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Concerns: Cardio issues, inactivity, and mental focus
Roman Kopylov (14–3)
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Ranked #14, surging with a 6–1 record in his last seven bouts
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Technical striker with crisp kickboxing and strong finishing ability
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Most recent win: Head-kick KO of Chris Curtis in January
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Strengths: Precision, composure, and fight IQ
🔍 Tactical Preview
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Costa’s Path to Victory: He needs to turn this into a brawl—pressure Kopylov, use body kicks, and mix in clinch work. If he fights cautiously or from range, he risks getting picked apart.
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Kopylov’s Strategy: Keep it technical. His superior striking and movement give him the edge in a measured fight. If Costa fades or gets reckless, Kopylov can capitalize.
Stats:
| Attribute | Paulo Costa | Roman Kopylov |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14–4 | 14–3 |
| Height | 6’1″ (185 cm) | 6’0″ (183 cm) |
| Reach | 72″ (183 cm) | 75″ (190 cm) |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Significant Strikes Landed/Min (SLpM) | 6.22 | 4.96 |
| Striking Accuracy | 58% | 50% |
| Significant Strikes Absorbed/Min (SApM) | 6.56 | 4.86 |
| Strike Defense | 47% | 55% |
| Takedown Avg/15 min | 0.00 | 1.17 |
| Takedown Accuracy | 0% | 42% |
| Takedown Defense | 75% | 87% |
| Submission Avg/15 min | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Prediction:
This should be a great fight two watch between two guys that have been going opposite directions in the UFC. Roman Kopylov is on a great win streak while Paulo Costa has lost four of his last five fights. Usually, I tend to lean with the guy who is moving on up, but in this case, the price is making me make a play on Costa who is in some trouble. The issue with Paulo is that his mind hasn’t been right since he drank wine the day he was fighting Izzy. In saying that, this is a situation where Costa has to find that dog within him. Paulo has struggled from becoming too timid during his fights against guys that can move around the ring. I do not see Kopylov as having that profile. Paulo should be the stronger and harder hitting opponent here, and the statistic show that he should land more strikes. The other big thing for this handicap is strength of schedule. Roman has only fought one tier 1 fighter in Fluffy Hernandez. This fight didn’t end well for him as it ended in him tapping out. Paulo has fought at least six tier one fighters, and although he hasn’t won as of late, he certainly showed well back when he has beaten Yoel Romero and Uriah Hall who I suppose could be called boarderline tier 1 fighters. The price on this fight should be a pickem at best. Seeing +190 on Paulo is just too good to pass up. I will take the plus money in a coin flip fight.
Paulo Costa +190 – 1 star
Bonus Play: Daniel Zellhuber by submission +440 – .5 stars – This is a play more about the opponent Michael Johnson. Out of his 19 losses, he has been submitted 9 times. Zell can wrestle, and he submitted Christos Giagos three fights ago back in 2023. Worth a shot with the big plus money.
