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Sniper Wes – Smashing the Books 4/20/2026 📈 | Sharp Sports Picks & Predictions

MLB Friday Free Play – Launching Runs In Houston

Baseball season is out of the gates and we’re slowly getting it rolling. Had a rough last seven days to give some back, but we’re still starting off well at 60-55-1 overall +15.93 Units as we’ve hit a couple nice big plus money winners so far. I’m a data guy, and as much as you can look at previous years data early in the season, baseball is always going to take a little while to settle in. The more info I get, the better my results typically are. We’ve got a 100+ Unit winning season on the books in baseball and my highest wagers are 3 Units, and Most are between 1-2 Units. I’ve also got four straight documented years of high volume plays with an end of season result in the black. If you wanna be in a lot of action almost everyday take a look at me here at TheOddsbreakers.com

I’ve got just a short write up today as my analysis today turns to Daikin Park in Houston, TX. where the Astros (8-12) will host the St. Louis Cardinals (10-8) at 7:45 ET. The current line sits with the Astros as favorites at -133 (Cardinals +123) with an Over/Under of 9 juiced to the under at -115.

The Astros will start recently called up former Rockies top pitching prospect Peter Lambert to make the start tonight as they deal with rotation injuries and issues. Lambert spent last year playing in Japan where he had a 4.26 ERA and a 3.19xFIP. The hitting isn’t quite as good over there and he struggled albeit playing half his games in Denver for the Rockies primarily working as a long reliever after his first season. He has had control issues in both Japan and Colorado with his last two seasons featuring walk rates north of four walks issued per nine innings. He has struggled to limit hard contact and opposing hitters have a lifetime .327 BABIP against him.

The Cardinals start Kyle Leahy who had worked as a reliever in his first three seasons in the bigs. He hasn’t had much success so far this season as a starter allowing a 5.14 ERA over three starts with a 5.47xFIP. He has struggled to miss bats and with walks early on this season with only seven strikouts over 14 innings pitched while walking eight hitters. The biggest strength for Leahy has always been his ability to keep the ball in the park as he has a career .65 HR/9 innings ratio.

On Offense the Astros have been one of the best early on in 2026 with a .790 OPS good for third in MLB averaging 5.35 runs per game. The Cardinals sit at 16th in OPS at .695 and are scoring 4.44 runs per contest. Jordan Walker has had some posy-hype success to start the year as he is tied with Aaron Judge for the league lead in home runs with eight.

My handicap on this one really looks at the limited success Leahy has had as a starter to begin the season and Lambert making his return to the bigs where even if he starts off okay I can’t see him going more than five innings. The biggest struggle for both these teams has been in the bullpen where St. Louis ranks 25th with a 5.35 ERA and Houston is 28th with a 5.85 ERA. I see both teams having to get into those bullpens early and I think that leads to some offensive fireworks tonight in Houston. I got this over early at 8.5, but I still like it where it is now at 9.

Over 9 Runs -105 to win 2 Units.

Podcast 810 – 34 – 26 – With Ron Marmalefski – The 2026 NFL Draft – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
The OddsBreakers All Rights Reserved

We have a great show for you today!  Ron Marmalefski @RonAceSports from The Inside Blitz is back to break down a huge NFL draft!  First, the guys talk about the overall strength of the draft.  Next, Ron and Kiev talk about the first five picks.   What is different than the general consensus.  We also give out a few Best Bets!  Then, Ron and Kiev talk about some positions and why we might see some different trends that we have in the past.  After that, Ron and Kiev talk about value and where some guys might fall.   Finally, we give out a longshot that we like for some big + money!  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

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You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

UFC 327 MAIN EVENT Best Bet – Prochazka vs Ulberg – Sports Betting

Jiri Prochazka vs Carlos Ulberg  -104

  • This is a great event in Miami with two huge light heavyweight fighters.   
  • I must say, that I am a fan of both guys, but there are a few things that stick out to me.
  • Jiri has only went to one decision in his fighting career.   He has yet to go the distance in the UFC.
  • Jiri has a full arsenol of ways to win the fight as he has 28 KOs and 3 submissions with plenty of grappling while Ulberg is mainly a stand up fighter.
  • Carlos has the power.  His record boasts 13 wins with 8 KOs.   If this fight stays standing, Carlos should have the upper hand landing 6.54 significant strikes to Jiri’s 5.69.
  • The problem with Jiri is that he has no defense.  He absorbs about 5.6 significant strikes per minute which is much higher than Carlos at 4.  
  • With this being a 5 round right, I say that either Carlos wins by Knockout, or maybe, just maybe Jiri can sneak in a submission for us for a massive payout.

Play:  Carlos ulberg by KO/TKO +195 – 1 star
Jiri Prochazka by submission +1600 – .25 stars

Bonus Play:   Tatiana Suarez by points +130 – 1 star – Tatiana is the better wrestler, and that will be poison for Loopy Godinez as she was already wrecked on the mat over the past few years by Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba.   

NFL 2026 Season Pythagorean Win Totals from 2025 Data

Football is often described as a game of inches—where being off by even one can determine the difference between victory and defeat in a league with limited opportunities. The unique shape of the football itself introduces a degree of unpredictability, influencing everything from field position on punts to the way the ball spins on field‑goal attempts. Randomness also affects when points are scored, which can ultimately shape a team’s final win–loss record. Let’s face it, luck often becomes a deciding factor in a football season, and the best teams don’t always beat the worst ones. Take September 7th of last year, for example, when the Raiders defeated the Patriots 20–33. How does that happen?

As NFL analysts and sports bettors, we aim to develop reliable methods to predict future outcomes with greater accuracy. Wins and losses offer a glimpse, but they rarely provide the full picture or serve as strong indicators of future success. By identifying scientific approaches that connect past performance to future results, we deepen our understanding and improve our profitability. Today, we’ll explore the 2025 Pythagorean win‑total calculation as a predictive tool for the 2026 NFL season.

Can an NFL team outscore its opponents and still finish with a losing record? Or score fewer points than it allows yet end up with a winning record? Surprisingly, both scenarios occur almost every year. In 2025, for instance, the Baltimore Ravens scored 424 points and allowed 398, yet finished with a losing record of eight wins.

Teams often pile up points in blowouts but lose tightly contested games—a pattern that highlights the need to evaluate performance beyond surface‑level results. By analyzing data such as total points scored and total points allowed, we gain a clearer understanding of a team’s expected performance compared to its actual results. This approach, known as the Pythagorean win‑total method, helps uncover discrepancies and project realistic expectations for the following season.

According to the 2011 edition of the Football Outsiders Almanac, “From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team leading the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were claimed by the team with the most actual victories.” The statistical significance of the Pythagorean wins theorem has held up ever since.  

The Pythagorean theorem—expressed as a2+b2=c2—calculates the hypotenuse of a right triangle (c), or in our case, the expected relationship between points scored and points allowed. Imagine points scored as (a) and points allowed as (b).   The value of (c) is derived from the squared relationship between the two. By understanding the ratio a2/c2 (where c2=a2+b2), we can estimate the percentage of games a team should win, then multiply that percentage by the total number of games. A tall, narrow triangle represents a team scoring far more points than it allows; a short, wide triangle represents the opposite.

You might wonder why we don’t simply use points scored divided by total points as the basis for predictions. The answer is simple: it doesn’t work. If a team scores 75% of the total points and allows 25%, would you expect them to win 75% of their games? Absolutely not. A team averaging 30 points per game while allowing just 10 would be expected to win far more. Consider the 2007 New England Patriots, who went 16–0. They scored 68.3% of the total points (36.8 per game on offense, 17.1 allowed on defense) and far exceeded 12 wins. Their Pythagorean win total—13.76—aligns much more closely with their dominance.

But there’s more to consider. The basic Pythagorean equation has limitations if left unadjusted. It tends to pull teams toward the middle, even when real‑world outcomes vary more dramatically. To account for these differences, adjustments must reflect the nuances of each sport—football included. Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders suggests that each team’s exponent should vary based on its points scored.

According to Schatz, the formula for the exponent that works best in the NFL is:

1.5 × log((PF + PA) / G)

Much of the remaining randomness comes from inconsistent officiating, injuries, and pure luck. The average exponent across teams is 2.46.

One factor we can partially account for is turnovers. Every year, teams experience what’s known as turnover luck. Whether good or bad, turnovers directly affect scoring and game outcomes. A team in field‑goal range might fumble away three points, while a defense may be put in a terrible position after an offensive turnover deep in its own territory. Last season, the Bills had the best turnover margin at +24, while the Browns had the worst at –22. No surprise there.

Turnovers are widely considered to be worth about four points each, and the traditional view is that they’re mostly random. I disagree. Recent team histories show that turnovers are somewhat predictable. Before Tom Brady arrived in Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston consistently produced negative turnover margins for the Buccaneers. Indianapolis has also been reliably negative for years. On the other hand, some teams consistently protect the ball, while others field ball‑hawking defenses that force more turnovers than average. The Steelers are excellent at ball security, and the Ravens—dominant in their division—have posted positive turnover margins in each of the last five seasons.

Because of this, I’ve adjusted the turnover value from four points to two, awarding or penalizing each team one point on offense and one on defense based on its 2025 turnover ratio. Normalizing turnovers gives us a clearer picture of what each team’s expected wins should have been in a cleaner, more neutral season. In essence, teams with negative turnover margins receive a boost in expected wins, while teams with unusually high positive margins see their expected wins reduced to account for luck. Even though some teams consistently take care of the ball, outliers still exist. Fumble luck, in particular, is far less predictable than interceptions. 

Please see our chart below for actual wins versus Pythagorean expected wins.

Using this diagram, we can make informed judgments about each team’s true strength—not only how well they score, but how well they defend. By comparing last season’s actual results with Pythagorean expectations, we can identify which teams overachieved and which underachieved in 2025. Here are the five biggest outliers on each side:

Over-achievers:

  1. Chicago Bears:  Da Bears had 8.04 expected wins compared to their 11 actual wins.  A -2.96 difference. They were certainly the luckiest team in the NFL for the 2025 season.  A massive +22 turnover margin was the icing on the cake.  This Bears team was the 4th quarter comeback kids.  Can they make the playoffs or even win the division going from a 4th place schedule to a 1st place schedule?   Well, that will mainly be up to the coaching and the quarterback play.
  2. Denver Broncos:  Good ole Denver was here to clean up the misfortunes of the Chiefs.  Well, until the playoffs that is.  The Horses had had only 11.21 expected wins compared to their 14 actual wins last year.  A -2.79 difference.  Now with a first place schedule, and a healthier division, will this team win anywhere close to 14 games?
  3. Pittsburgh Steelers:  Who is not sick of this slightly above average team?  Steeler nation had expected wins of 8.12 compared to their 10 actual wins last year.  A -1.88 difference.  Aaron Rogers swoops in to achieve his normal regular season glory, only to crap out in the playoffs.  The usual.
  4. LA Chargers:  The Bolts had expected wins of 9.2 compared to their 11 actual wins last year.  A -1.80 difference.  Another team in the AFC West who benefited from an easier schedule due to the Mahomes injury and the Raiders just being the Raiders.  Can Jim Harbaugh keep it boring again for the 2026 season?
  5. Jacksonville Jaguars:  This London loving team had expected wins of 11.36 compared to their 13 actual wins last year.  A -1.64 difference. This team was also quite fortunate with a +13 turnover margin before they choked away their chances at home in the playoffs.   Thus far, Liem Cohen has proven to be a solid heard coach, so that is what we need to factor in for 2026.

Under-achievers:

  1. Kansas City Chiefs:  The Chiefs had expected wins of 9.57 compared to their 6 actual wins last year.  A +3.57 difference.  Now clearly much of this was due to the bad injury to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, but even before that, we must remember from last year that this team won 15 games with a Pythagorean win total of 9.86 which made them the biggest regression candidate for 2025.  The Chiefs under 11.5 wins was our best bet from last year’s article.
  2. NY Giants:  The G-Men had expected wins of 7.10 compared to their utterly gross 4 actual wins from last season.  A +3.10 difference.  The Giants moved on from their coach Tony Daboll and hired a proven commodity in John Harbaugh.  The Giants also have a quarterback with Jaxson Dart, and one hell of a running back in Cam Skattebo.  As this division opens up, I think that the Giants are on the right path to the playoffs.
  3. Arizona Cardinals:  The Red Birds had expected wins of 5.33 compared to their 3 actual wins from last season.  A +2.33 difference. Lot’s of changes in this organization as they say goodbye to coach Rich Gannon and hello to new coach Mike LaFleur.  I am not a big fan of the little brother perspective in general, but this team still needs a quarterback after they sent Kyler Murray and is Xbox over to Minnesota.
  4. Indianapolis Colts:  The Ponies had expected wins of 9.93 compared to their 8 actual wins from last season.   A +1.93 difference.  The demise of this team after Daniel Jones’s injury was significant.  Imagine starting the season 8-2 and then losing your last seven games to finish out the season.  The good news is that this is a division that can be conquered for the 2026/2027 season.
  5. Washington Commanders:  The Commie’s had expected wins of 6.7 compared to 5 actual wins. A +1.70 difference.  From rags to riches and back to rags again was the story when rookie of the year quarterback Jayden Daniel’s dislocated his elbow.  He tried to come back too early and re-injured it.  This team however should have won a few more games with Marcus Mariota as they lost two games in overtime.  

Best Bet:  Giants over 7.5 wins +105

Some fans of the Pythagorean win total formula do not want turnovers involved for the argument that turnovers are more predictible.  I do not agree with that assessment, but to try and keep everyone happy, I decided this year to insert a chart here below that shows the formulas without factoring in turnovers.  Notice that the most fortunate team in the Chicago Bears who had a +22  turnover margin moves down to second most fortunate with a -1.84 difference as the Broncos are now in first In that category now up -2.95 wins.     

In conclusion, it should now be easier to see the randomness in football were some teams will have better records than they actually deserve, while some teams will have worse records than they actually should have achieved.  Remember to take this information for what it’s worth.  When predicting season wins, we also must factor in some of the less quantifiable information such as the clutch performances from quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts along with the anti-clutch performances of Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith.  Strength of schedule is another data point that is less quantifiable when it comes to actual points or season wins, but equally important when determining what these teams went through, not only in the previous season, but also in what they will be facing in the near future.

Pythagorean win totals are an important indicator of the future success or failure of NFL teams going into their 2026/2027 season, and it should take some precedence over last year’s actual win results.  The Pythagorean win total will remain a great method for your predictive analysis for next season and beyond.  Should you have any questions or want a list that can be copied and pasted, please tweet me @OBKiev.  Have a great NFL season and best of luck in your research.

Podcast 809 – 33 – 26 – With Brady Kannon – NFL Pythagorean Win Totals – The 2026 Masters Tournament – Sports Betting

The OddsBreakers Sports Betting Podcast
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We have a great show for you today! Brady Kannon @LasVegasGolfer is back to break down a HUGE weekend in Augusta!  First, Kiev recaps the college basketball national championship.  Next, Kiev get’s into his Pythagorean win total calculation with a Best Bet!   Then, Brady comes on and talks about The 2026 Masters Tournament!   What is the course info?  How do you bet this event?  Who are the sleepers?  Who does Brady like today?  Should you have any questions for the podcast, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!   

Use Promo Code Baseball26 TO GET $100 OFF EVERY BASEBALL, FOOTBALL OR YEARLY PACKAGE, OR 50% OFF THE FIRST MONTH OF ANY MONTHLY PACKAGE for the rest of the 2026 season! Click here: https://theoddsbreakers.com/premium-plays/ Offer expires December 31st 2026

@FanDuel and @BleavNetwork

Follow our FREE PICKS telegram channel:  https://t.me/TheOddsBreakersFreePicks

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You could also support us at Patreon.com for only $10 a month to help out and thank us for some free plays as well as get some extra benefits like free merch and plays!

MLB Super Tuesday Free Play – Tigers vs Twins – Sports Betting

Tigers vs Twins +150 O/U 7

🔥 Pitching Matchup: Skubal vs. Bradley

  • Tarik Skubal (DET) — 1–1, 0.69 ERA, 0.69 WHIP, 19.1 K% and zero walks through 13 innings. He’s been nearly unhittable, even if Detroit hasn’t always backed him with runs.
  • Taj Bradley (MIN) — 1–0, 0.87 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 27.9 K% in 10.1 innings. A strike‑thrower with rising upside, he’s matched Skubal statistically in the early going.

This is the most evenly matched pitching duel of the series and could turn into a low‑scoring grind.

❄️ Weather & Conditions

Temperatures are expected to hover in the mid‑40s, continuing the frigid theme of this series. Cold air has already suppressed offense for both teams, and that trend likely continues.

🔍 Team Storylines

Detroit Tigers

  • Coming off a 7–3 loss in the opener, where Casey Mize struggled in the cold.
  • Offense has been inconsistent—hot against St. Louis, quiet in Minnesota.
  • Looking to snap a five‑game road losing streak.
  • Injuries continue to pile up, including Justin Verlander and multiple arms on the IL.

Minnesota Twins

  • Also 4–6, trying to stabilize after a rough start.
  • Lineup features intriguing Statcast profiles:
    • Josh Bell (.419 xwOBA, 12.5% barrel rate)
    • Victor Caratini (.419 xwOBA, 88% hard‑hit rate)
    • Byron Buxton (elite sprint speed, but inconsistent contact)
    • Royce Lewis (athletic, aggressive hitter)
  • Joe Ryan dominated Detroit in the opener, helping Minnesota take Game 1.

📌 What to Watch

  • Can Detroit’s bats wake up behind their ace? Skubal has pitched well enough to win both starts.
  • Will Bradley’s strikeout stuff hold up against Detroit’s left‑handed threats?
  • Cold‑weather contact may decide the game—balls aren’t carrying, so sequencing and timely singles matter more than power.

Prediction:

  • As the MLB likes to start the season earlier, the tempuatures are colder.   I will say that there is a player who isn’t cold in all and that is Tigers Pitcher Tarik Skubal.
  • Skuby snack picked up right where he left off with a .69 ERA over 13 innings for 2026.
  • Taj Bradley is taking the helm for the Twins.  He is also off to a great start with a .87 ERA over 10 innings, but regression is eminent as he only had a 5.05 ERA as of lass season.
  • Thus far for 2026, Detroit is doing just fine from a batting perspective ranking 12th in weighted runs created compared to 19th for the Twinkies.
  • I am gonna lay the ML with the Tigers as they should be able to take control of this game.

Tigers -166 – 1 star

2026 NFL DRAFT SERIES – PART TWO – AFC TEAM PROFILES – 2025 EXIT REPORT


Written by Ron Marmalefsky @ronacesports


BALTIMORE: 8-9, rare 30-45 sack ratio, usual solid rush attack and special team unit
How they ended 2025: If Tyler Loop makes that kick to beat Pittsburgh the Ravens HOST a playoff game, and most definitely become dangerous. Instead, John Harbaugh is out and the team sees their 1st remake in quite some time. Going 2-4 down the stretch included a trio of close losses, as that, coupled with their tendency to blow early leads had to be a factor in the
changeover. We now see more roster holes than usual, so this will be interesting to watch, in a division that is in transition.My take on the 2026 coaching staff: I’m okay with Jesse Minter getting this opportunity, but will he bring the same attention to detail that Harbaugh did, especially as it relates to the entire special team unit? They lose their lead special team coach, but the assistant takes over. OC Declan Doyle may be decent, but replacing Todd Monken won’t be easy. I’m happy to see former DC Zach Orr go. Anthony Weaver “may” be an upgrade, as his best trait was on this side of the ball.
How was the 2025 draft class? As per usual, Baltimore drafted for volume. I called this draft solid, varied, and one that met most needs, but it was not spectacular. I, like others, had the Mike Green pick as polarizing. He had a so-so rookie season. I thought they misfired along the OL. In my draft recap, safety Starks was listed as the best pick. He delivered. So did my
sleeper pick (someone I choose from each team’s 3rd day picks) of Teddye Buchanan, who had 85 tackles in 14 games played.

Draft needs – 2026: WR, IOL, DT, safety, TE youth, #2 QB. Zay Flowers clearly needs a tall running mate. The OL is down one and LT Stanley is slowing down. DT and safety are down a notch. Two TE’s left in free agency. QB Huntley does not excite me.

BUFFALO: 12-5, 36-40 sack ratio, subpar run defense, top tier pass defense, as expected, +24 turnover ratio decreased (+1)How they ended 2025:
Buffalo had more flaws than usual in the regular season, but optimism was clearly present with the Bills winning five of their final six games. Unfortunately, the look on Josh Allen’s face after another bitter playoff loss spoke
volumes. Like in Baltimore, the Bills fired a winning coach. The goal is never just the playoffs. The Bills are looking hard at restructuring the 2026 roster. If successful, the window for success will not be closed.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: I wasn’t a big fan of Sean McDermitt, but I’m also not sure if Joe Brady can run an entire organization. Brady and OC Pete Carmichael should keep the offense rolling. I like the hire of DC Jim Leonhard. While NOT a sure thing, his varied, patient realm of experience could serve him well. Buffalo is the 4th team in a row with a new special team coordinator (12 in total). The new guy had plenty of experience in Arizona. GM Brandon Beane is generally solid.
How was the 2025 draft class? I asked the Bills to be more aggressive in this draft. They traded up twice on the 2nd day. My top, and only two bolded needs were hit right away. I had differences later on, but I liked the early focus. Maxwell Hairston had modest stats, but the secondary was already well-stocked. DT Sanders also had modest stats, and needs to make a
difference in year two, as Buffalo had massive issues defending the run. My sleeper selection was DT Walker, who had a better stat sheet than Sanders did, and is listed as a starter now right along with Sanders. The rest of the draft yielded filler types, and perhaps no down the road starters, although Jackson Hawes offered some value as TE3.


Draft needs – 2026:
2 OL, run stoppers, WR, young edge rusher, LB youth, safety. Josh Allen needs better protection. The run defense was a liability all year. The WR room lacks consistency. Sacks were down a year ago.


CINCINNATI: 6-11, 5.2 per carry run defense
How they ended 2025: Joe Burrow returned to play the last six games, but it was too little, too late for the Bengals. He was fantastic (9-1 ratio last three games), but recent poor drafting was evident in most of their defensive stat sheet. With massive changes occurring in Baltimore and in Pittsburgh, an opportunity exists for a resurgence in 2026.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Al Golden is in his 2nd season as DC as the staff remains intact. His 1st season showed stats that were no different from the past. Only two special team coordinators have been in their same job since 2021. KCs was hired in 2013. Cincinnati? Darrin Simmons was hired in 2003. Simply amazing (and he’s done a decent job).
How was the 2025 draft class? Despite having the smallest scouting department (frugal), the Bengals had been at least a top 10-15 drafting team for about a decade. The past three years have been rough. I isolated four teams with POOR drafts in 2025, and Cincy was one of them. Cincy rolled the dice with 17th overall pick Shemar Stewart, a physical specimen with 5thround NCAA stats. He had 11 tackles and one sack in eight games played. Their best pick (in my opinion) was LB Knight, who delivered with 106 tackles. In a surprise, fellow LB Barrett had 102 tackles. He made no impact plays and didn’t help vs. the run, but I’m impressed with his rookie season. OG Fairchild started, but Cincy had OL holes and that was not unexpected. I’m still not enamored with this draft class, but it may not have been a bottom four class based on 2025 performance.


Draft needs – 2026:
Edge rushers, safety, CB, OL. Edge is by far the biggest need. Who plays free safety?


CLEVELAND: 5-12, 53-51 sack ratio, poor kick and punt return defense

How they ended 2025: Rookie QB Sanders was the talk of the 2025 draft, and to his credit, he was competitive down the
stretch. His overall stat sheet was very “rookie-like”, but he made some plays. Turnovers did spike late in the year. Miles Garrett was special, but the defense let down at times, and the offense had very little consistency. Cleveland had but three games where they scored over 20 points. Still, like with Cincy, the Division is undergoing massive change, so there is hope.My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Todd Monken is the new Head Coach. With divisional ties, this will be interesting, plus he’s offensive-minded. Mike Rutenberg is the new DC. He has 13 years of NFL experience but his pedigree worries me and this could be at least an initial downgrade from Jim Schwartz. Cleveland needed a new special team coordinator, but the new guy comes from Green Bay (assistant), a team who has lived at the bottom of special team play for years.
How was the 2025 draft class? Cleveland’s draft team fancies itself as analytical, yet they drafted non-traditional positions such as RB (2), LB, DT, and TE, plus two lower rated QBs. The grades were all over the place, 2nd overall to 30th
. In an alternate universe I think the draft team approaches things differently. My ratings were pretty good, but positions drafted were
wrong. Mason Graham is good and I had no issue with this pick. Taking two RBs was at least one too many. I liked Sampson, but so far, he’s a miss on my part (2.7 per carry). I LOVED TE Fannin. He delivered, so why not use your other picks on more traditional positions. QB Gabriel is not a fit for a cold weather team (stat sheet was not surprising). QB Sanders will get a shot to win the job. He is sack prone and had a low rookie %, but Monken could raise his game. LB Schwesinger won defensive player of the year! What an interesting draft.


Draft needs – 2026: WR, OT, DB, RB, QB decision, #2 TE. I don’t like the WR room. Cleveland has added five OL through free agency, but LT still worries me. RB Junkins (3.7 per carry) is off injury and the room is thin. QB will be a fascinating watch.

DENVER: 14-3, +90 point ratio, 68-23 sack ratio, 57.8% pass defense, bottom tier return defense
How they ended 2025: Denver earned the #1 seed by virtue of a suffocating defense and stout OL play. Many wins were not pretty, but it was hard to move the ball vs. them, and QB Nix made many solid decisions. His injury prior to the AFC title game was unfortunate. The next step: Finding a bit more firepower offensively so that they can open up the playbook.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Sean Payton is excellent. In 2026 he is turning over the play calling to promising OC Davis Webb. I wonder if Payton can stay away. Vance Joseph has been excellent as DC. Denver made a special team coordinator change in ’25 as Payton brought in his former buddy, Darren Rizzi. The previous guy was great. 2025 was not very good.How was the 2025 draft class? Payton is always hands-on during draft day, and that’s not always a good thing. Those I trust were in agreement that there were higher rated RBs over Harvey and higher rated WRs over Bryant, both day two picks.
Harvey has home run ability, but ran just 3.7 per carry as a rookie. Bryant caught 31 passes, but was over-drafted. Most
people liked CB Barron, and the 1st round pick was “ok”, but the DB room was already loaded. Denver didn’t get anything out of other early picks (3rd/4th round), one of which I felt was way over-drafted. I’ll keep my C+ grade.


Draft needs – 2026:
DE, LB, IOL, safety depth. Denver was inactive in free agency, so there are some holes to fill. Although for this team, the holes are hardly earth-shattering.


HOUSTON: 12-5, 59.3% pass defense, 47-31 sack ratio
How they ended 2025: Houston started 0-3, and also lost QB Stroud due to injury. They finished 9-0, with QB Mills leading the way in the 1st three games. Exceptional defensively, the offense was hurt by lower tier RB play, and an injury to lead WR
Sutton, which contributed to their playoff loss. Houston becomes dangerous if the offense adds more firepower/creativity.My take on the 2026 coaching staff: I’m a big fan of Head Coach Ryans. Nick Calley took over as OC in 2025. I was surprised at the hire then (the previous OC was great in 2023, and fired after 2024), and for now, Caley needs to show me he’s the right guy for the job. I do understand that parts of the offense are below playoff standards, so the draft team has to pitch in.
How was the 2025 draft class? OL, TE and a higher rated DT were my concerns from this draft class, which saw the GM make seven trades, yet ending up with around the same draft capital as he started with. The WR additions were fine, and LT Ersery is a competent player on an OL that needs a bit more help. The DB selections were buried on the depth chart. I had far lower grades on both players (drafted in 3rd, 6th round). I was a fan of RB Marks in college, but felt he had more of a complementary style, along with his massive pass catching experience. By necessity he had an even bigger role, with modest results.


Draft needs – 2026: OL starter, DT, LB depth. Houston added OL in free agency, but was it enough? There’s room to fortify the DL and LB spots. This list isn’t long, because there’s at least competent talent most everywhere on the roster.


INDY: 8-9, +54 point ratio, 29 sacks allowed, solid run defense

How they ended 2025: Indy’s bye week was 11/16. Standing at 8-1, they did not win another game! Daniel Jones was present for 2 1/3 of those games, and was in a slump at this point, but things got worse once he went down with injury. Several games were close losses, as ageless Philip Rivers was fun to watch, but the Colts went out with a whimper. Hidden fact: Six of the seven losses were to playoff teams, with the other loss to KC. Daniel Jones hopes to be 100% by opening day.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: No changes were made to the staff. I’m neutral on Head Coach Steve Steichen, and a bit bullish on OC Jim Bob Cooter (Steichen calls the plays). 2nd year DC Lou Anarumo didn’t fix the infamous “cover-zero defense”, but there was some improvement. With Sauce Gardner here for the entire season, maybe further improvement is possible. I dislike GM Ballard. He drafts complementary defensive players with little cover skill sets, and reaches for players such as QB Anthony Richardson. This ISN’T hindsight. Richardson had 11 NCAA starts and no accuracy. Ballard bought time with the pick.How was the 2025 draft class? This was a better draft for Indy, with a little more emphasis on production instead of potential. As I would have done, Indy raced to the podium to get TE Warren. That was a no-brainer pick. I was fine with DE Tuimoleau, who had a modest at best rookie year. We didn’t see much from the other draft choices, with back-up QB Leonard pressed into action, but then passed over for Rivers. I only gave the class a C+, and Indy will need more than just Warren to step up.

Draft needs – 2026: MLB. 1-2 WR’s, safety, OL (RT?), DE, CB depth, #2 TE. The roster still has holes. Zaire-Franklin is gone. There’s no safety to replace Nick Cross. Braden Smith is gone. DE has only modest talent.


JACKSONVILLE: 13-4, 32-41 sack ratio, solid defensive stats otherwise, special team offense stout
How they ended 2025: 5-4 became 13-4 as the Jags won their last eight. Sitting at a 12-26 sack ratio, the #’s were 20-15 during the win streak. The run D also was dominant down the stretch, and the Jags finished with a turnover ratio of +13, intercepting 22 passes. The trade deadline saw them add WR Jacobi Myers. As I noted in the podcast the next week, what a great addition. My take on the 2026 coaching staff: I honestly did not expect “nomad” Liam Coen to hit the ground running in year #1. He’s been a good offensive mind in the NFL and in college, but has never been in one place for any length of time. Somehow, he wore all his hats quite well. Anthony Campanile deserves a ton of credit as the new DC. Finally, Coen only took the job (after he, and everyone else declined) when GM Baalke was let go. Baalke was the worst GM I’ve ever seen. Addition by subtraction.How was the 2025 draft class? After drafting an unprecedented 17 players with NOT DRAFT WORTHY grades over 2022-2024, the 1st draft under James Gladstone had all NFL-rated players (average is 1.7 per team without NFL-worthy grades). The Jags wanted to make a splash, and did so with the trade up for Travis Hunter. Hopefully, he’ll be a solid NFL player but I said then (and say now) that this was an overpayment. The OL additions sat as expected. RB Tuten made noise in the return game and will be a part of the new RB rotation. The defensive draftees also sat. This wasn’t a splash draft, but it did add roster depth.

Draft needs – 2026: Two OL upgrades. MLB. Real TE. DL/DL depth. RB, QB2, WR, DB. Years of poor drafting means we still have roster holes. The OL is below par. LB Lyoyd retired. DL and RB are somewhat incomplete. Nick Mullins is the backup QB.


KANSAS CITY: 6-11, +34 point differential, 1-7 road games, 66.8% pass defense, 35-47 sack ratio
How they ended 2025: 2025 wasn’t the norm. KC was 6-5, but lost their last six games, and played without Mahomes in the last three. Six of their last eight games were decided three points or less, and in a change from 2024, KC was 1-5 in those
games. KC will be making changes (RB, RT, DB) for 2026 in the hope that they can return to the top of the AFC.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Andy Reid is top tier, and reunites with Eric Bieniemy as someone who might light a fire under the offense. The rest of the staff, and the GM have been loyal for years, forming one of the best NFL hierarchies.
How was the 2025 draft class? My rating was decent, but not as high as the NFL consensus. LT Simmons was a steal at pick 32. DE Gillotte contributed. DT Norman-Lott barely played, then tore his ACL. I gave him a 4th-5th round grade, so taking him in the 2nd round was not ideal. CB Williams was the only other draftee that made an impact, but the class does show potential.

Draft needs – 2026: 3 DB’s, edge, and DL youth as well, RT. DB is a MASSIVE need. A DL youth movement is essential. Chris Jones needs a stout pass rushing running mate. A new RT must be found.


LAS VEGAS: 3-14, 68.5% pass defense, 64 sacks allowed, rock bottom run offense, poor return defense
How they ended 2025: Vegas was generally non-competitive all season long. Pete Carroll wanted desperately to return to the NFL, but this was not the right fit. Chip Kelly and the NFL do not mix. It’s time to press the reset button in a big way for 2026.My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Klint Kubiak had a masterful Super Bowl game plan and might be the right fit here once the roster takes shape. Rob Leonard was promoted to DC. He has about 13 years of NFL experience but no Wiki page! Joe DeCamillis has recently been in the college ranks but as NFL fans know, he has 30+ years of NFL special team experience.
Hopefully he can fix recent special team woes. John Spytek is in his 2nd year as GM. Coming from Tampa, he has a more
modest approach to the draft.
How was the 2025 draft class? 6th rated by the NFL composite, and about 10th for me, perhaps we all overvalued this class, at least for now. I had no 40 time on RB Jeanty. He may be special once the roster improves, but 2025 wasn’t very good. WR Bech is massively team oriented, but also a massive reach as a 2nd rounder. Vegas added two down the roster WRs, and also added two 3rd round OL, one of which I thought had value. We’ll see if they move up the depth chart soon. Only CB Porter shows promise after that, with most of the late round picks complete throwaways. This class should have been better.


Draft needs – 2026: QB, WR. DB, OL, better DE, possibly DT. QB and WR are massive needs. So is DB, with three of five
starters not at true NFL levels. The OL has some stars but holes at two spots. Tyree Wilson has been a disappointment.


LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: 11-6, top five pass D%, 60 sacks allowed, issues with the return defense
How they ended 2025: The game 16 loss to Houston pretty much sealed their fate, so LA rested its starters in the finale at Denver. Once again, the playoffs saw a quick exit. With that said, LA went 4-0 after the bye week until game 16, and I believe the glass remains half full. Both OTs missed essentially the whole season. Their rookie RB missed half the season. Other
injuries cost them games on the interior OL, TE, pass rusher and LB. LA enters 2026 with more than just playoffs on their mind. My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Jim Harbaugh does things his way, but is an elite coach, molding his team to his unique scheme specifications. That’s why others have a tough time evaluating his draft classes. In a departure from form, the new OC is former Dolphin’s Head Coach Mike McDaniel. This could be a home run, but we’ll see. LA suffered a loss when Jesse Minter became Baltimore’s Head Coach. New DC Chris O’Leary is 34 yeas old, and only worked in the NFL one year, in 2024 here as the safeties coach. This will be a must-watch area. I think the special team coach is solid, despite 2025 defensive woes. The draft team is one of my favorites.
How was the 2025 draft class? The NFL composite draft grade was 23rd. THEY WERE WRONG. I gave them a top three grade, so let’s examine. RB Hampton is the real deal and a great scheme fit. WR Harris caught 30 passes and looks the part. DT
Caldwell was over-drafted but I understand, as he fit a vital need area. He starts! Edge rusher Kennard was hurt (five games played). I listed TE Gadsden as someone 24 other teams should have drafted. He was a 5th round STEAL. Two of four others added depth, while 6th round safety Mickens (5TH round grade for me) had 25 tackles in 12 games played. EXQUISITE!


Draft needs – 2026: Interior OL, DL, CB to challenge Tarheeb Still, LB. The OL gets back two stud OT’s, but needs more. One more DL run-stopper is important. LB Colson hasn’t stayed healthy and the unit could use one more challenger.

MIAMI: 7-10, dead last 72% pass defense, 4.7-4.8 per carry rush ratio
How they ended 2025: Miami shut down Tua after game #14. They’ll take a huge cap hit, but he was just too fragile and too error-prone. Rookie QB Ewers went 50-75 down the stretch and will be in the QB conversation with newly acquired Malik Willis. The star was RB Achane but a four-game win streak that began 11/9 was not enough to get the Dolphins into playoff contention. Miami finished with a bottom five Power Number and enters 2026 with a bottom five roster. Tank or try?My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Jeff Hafley was mediocre at Boston College (maybe not his fault) and decent as Green Bay’s DC. I’m not jumping for joy at this hire, but it shouldn’t be a disaster. I like Bobby Slowik, who I thought was ousted too fast as Houston’s OC. Sean Duggan is the new DC. He’s just 32 years old, but has been with Hafley at his latest stops. This is a massive step up in responsibility. Buffalo’s special team coordinator is now here. Jon-Eric Sullivan is the new GM. I was
thrilled that the old GM was fired (my draft grades had been near rock bottom). He spent 22 years with GB. If that experience rubbed off on him, look for Miami to draft more in quantity moving forward.
How was the 2025 draft class? I rated this class a C-, higher than the national composite (30th) and higher than my previous Miami grades. The Dolphins drafted three along the DL and the early results are promising. They drafted two DB’s and both contributed, perhaps more out of necessity (I don’t see them as future starters). RB Gordan ran just 2.85 per carry. They like him more than I do. OG Savaiinaea started as expected and should be fine. QB Ewers has flaws but can be an NFL backup.

Draft needs – 2026: 100 WR’s, three DB’s, OC and RG, TE, OLB/LB depth, DE, 2027 QB. This is the worst NFL WR room. Miami allowed 72% VIA THE PASS. The OL is weak. TE is old and fragile. Two of four LB’s could be upgraded. QB can wait.


NEW ENGLAND: 14-3, 8-0 road games, 320 points allowed (4th), 66.4% pass defense, 35-48 sack ratio
How they ended 2025: New England lost 35-31 hosting Buffalo on 12/21 but rebounded to win at Baltimore and closed out the regular season 3-0. Drake Maye excelled. Yes, the sack ratio was poor for the season, but the ratio was 15-14 the final eight games of the year. The run defense regressed late in the year, and of course, they had issues in the Super Bowl. Still, 2025 was an unequivocal success, and more could be expected in the future.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Four factors contributed to 2025 success. The schedule, winning (by far) free agency, the draft (see below), and the big uptick with the coaching changes. Head Coach Vrabel was certainly an upgrade, as was the return of OC Josh McDaniels. Zak Kuhr took a major leap in responsibility to become the DC in 2025. He was with Vrabel in Tennessee in a minor role. Obviously, Vrable gives him input on this side of the ball. GM Eliot Wolf had an electric 2025. How was the 2025 draft class? This class received the #1 NFL composite grade nationally, and a top three grade by me. Much has been said about the struggle for LT Will Campbell, but he, along with fellow rookie OL Jared Wilson actually had decent debuts. RB Henderson showed flashes (5.1 per carry) and could do even more. WR Williams was used on deep throws but has a low ceiling. DE Farmer saw modest action. Safety Woodson had 75 tackles in a surprising debut (I rated him, but not as a 4throunder). PK Borregales was fine. The trio of 7th round picks were all rated NR (not NFL worthy). The long snapper started.

Draft needs – 2026: 2 WR’s, front seven pass rushers, right side OL and center, TE, DB. They added WR Doubs but need more. Despite the soft schedule, NE had just 35 sacks last year. The OL is not yet complete. TE Henry is aging, and depth is missing.

NYJ: 3-14, 0-6 in the AFC East, last in point differential (-203), 26-60 sack ratio, outstanding special team defense (again). To make matters worse, the NYJ recorded zero defensive interceptions. Teams threw 515 passes vs. them. Simply amazing.
How they ended 2025: The December/January offense was anemic. They scored 24 points in games 15-17, throwing for a grand total of 400 yards. Not listed above is their turnover ratio, which closed at -19. Without WR Wilson, no player was
feared offensively. Two solid starters, including CB Sauce Gardner were traded mid-season, which didn’t help matters.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Aaron Glenn looked and sounded lost all season. He had no clue how to run the offense. The new OC is Frank Reich. I’m all for a change, but why Reich? I do not like the move. Brian Duker is the new DC. Just 36 years old, this is his 6th team. I feel he’s untested, but Glenn has defensive experience. The Jets have consistently played well on special teams and retain their coordinator. GM Mougey starts his 2nd year. He’s an improvement over past NYJ GMs.
How was the 2025 draft class? While I wasn’t a fan of WR Arian Smith (and still not a fan), the other offensive additions of RT Membou and TE Taylor were solid, as expected. The Jets drafted two DBs early (rounds 3-4). Both contributed, with Malichi Moore one I liked coming into 2025 and he produced 95 tackles. In my Still Left to do column, I listed WR and DT as misses on their part. That turned out to be accurate, but at least this GM got them some talent, and even some depth for the roster.
Draft needs – 2026: QB, 2 sackers, WR’s, CB, RG, LB, TE2. QB could wait, but not the pass rush (26 sacks last year) or CB (zero picks). Both 2025 starting guards are gone.
PITTSBURGH: 10-7, 48-31 sack ratio, +12 turnover ratio
How they ended 2025: Consistently overlooked, Pitt went 4-1 down the stretch, three in upset fashion. Aaron Rodgers was solid, with virtually no WR’s with talent at his disposal. Ownership urgency is evident, as the playoff win draught is a thorn in their side. As I’ve said for years, more offensive creativity (through the draft) is needed. We’ll see if they agree.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: People mock Mike Tomlin for his winning record, but no playoff wins, but the stuck in purgatory Steelers likely win two games more per year thanks to his expertise. I’ll miss him, as while others I respect couldn’t figure them out, long term consistency in approach led to my 9-1 ATS record last year, and 30-8 recently. Making sure there are at least three Head Coaches named Mike in the NFL at all times, Mike McCarthy was hired. He’s been a good offensiveminded coach. Veteran DC Patrick Graham takes over defensively. Veteran Danny Crossman (Miami) is the new special team coordinator. GM Omar Khan is decent, and had one recent dynamite draft, but some areas do not get properly addressed. How was the 2025 draft class? This was an average draft class, one missing a WR, which was utterly unacceptable. DT Harman should be a decent starter. RB Kaleb Johnson was a rookie flop. Two of three front seven draftees added depth and LB Sawyer might end up starting down the road. QB Will Howard will eventually get an opportunity, but comes with no guarantee.

Draft needs – 2026: CB and/or DB, run stopper, LO, LB youth, WR. The positions have talent but each area could add a starter.

TENNESSEE: 3-14, 68.9% pass defense, 56 sacks allowed, some decent special team play
How they ended 2025: Tennessee won two of five down the stretch but any progress was not all that measurable. They did allow just eight sacks in their final five games while securing 12 of their own. With that said, points allowed did not come down, as they allowed 30 per game down the stretch. The rebuild is in phase one.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Robert Salah is the new Head Coach. His tenure with the Jets didn’t go well but I’m okay giving him a 2nd opportunity. Speaking of 2nd opportunities, fired Head Coach Brian Daball (NYG) is the new OC. It’s probably an upgrade over last year, but by how much? Gus Bradley is the new DC, yet another former Head Coach. In a nutshell, his last three stints as a DC (2017-2024) didn’t go all that well. I’ll watch his progress closely. I like special team coordinator John Fassal. This is GM Mike Borgonzi’s second season. I’d like to see a better effort this time around.
How was the 2025 draft class? There has NEVER been a more forgotten 1st pick of the draft than QB Cam Ward.
Overshadowed by ESPN (and other’s) incessant Shedeur Sanders talk, Ward wasn’t even discussed much during the season. If they can build a roster around him, I think he has decent upside (59%, just seven interceptions). Edge rusher Oladejo was over-drafted but had some stats (13 tackles in six games) and may be slated to start in 2026, ready or not. So is CB Winston, who was properly drafted to an area of need. I thought the two WR’s were modest picks. On this WR needy team they not only combined for 89 receptions, but Dike was electric on returns. TE Helm is a short area pass catcher (44). All picks made the team, so my average draft grade (NFL composite also average) might be a tad low, especially if Ward progresses.


Draft needs – 2026: Feature WR, CB, OT/center, DT, edge rusher, LB, TE1, RB decisions. Despite adding about 16 players, I still show some impactful needs for the Titans. WR is obvious. Two starting CB’s left, and those added are filler types. The OL allowed 56 sacks a year ago and no impact was added. DT looks average, as does edge and LB. Upgrades are possible for all these spots. They could easily sit on what they have at TE or go for impact. Do they stay with Pollard or draft RB Love?

Podcast 808 – 32 – 26 – The College Basketball National Championship – Sports Betting

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2026 NFL DRAFT SERIES – PART ONE – NFC TEAM PROFILES – 2025 EXIT REPORT

Written by Ron Marmalefsky @ronacesports

ARIZONA: 3-14, 0-6 in Division, 30-59 sack ratio

How they ended 2025: With a whimper. I came into 2025 with DEEP concerns about the defensive coaching staff. Despite all
the attention they gave to that unit in the 2025 draft, the staff performed as I expected, allowing 37 points per game in their
last five, completing a nine-game losing streak. Arizona finished with a Power Rating of 17.5, which tied for 29 th . With the
league average Power Number nearly 26, it’s clear that Arizona underachieved.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: I’m okay with new HC Mike LaFleur, who (thankfully) will call the plays instead of
coordinator Nathanial Hackett. I am NOT okay with retaining defensive coordinator Nick Rallis. Why? GM Monti Ossenfort
has assembled some decent players, but the coaching staff underachieved. The new special team coordinator is from the NYG.
How was the 2025 draft class? I was generally okay with the draft class in my 2025 final draft report, but again, I ended the
report by saying it would be the coaching that decided their 2025 fate. CB Will Johnson got his feet wet and showed promise.
My sleeper pick, LB Simon showed up with 69 tackles. 5 th round pick Denzel Burke had 47 tackles. 1 st round pick Walter Nolen
was hurt, but had 26 tackles in six games. This defensive heavy draft wasn’t bad.

Draft needs – 2026: This is in order as of 3/28. Top needs are in BOLD. QB, edge rusher, OL, safety, ILB, DL, DB depth. The
top two needs are massive. In last year’s report I noted that OL was ignored, and edge rusher was not addressed fully.

ATLANTA: 8-9, MASSIVE TURNAROUND OF 57-26 SACK RATIO

How they ended 2025: People likely forget this, but Atlanta ended on a four-game win streak. Three wins were by a total of six
points, but one of them was vs. the Rams. Cousins, not Penix was the QB. The pass rush enabled the secondary to finally show
its talent (A.J. Terrell is underrated), lowering the pass D% to #’s the Falcons haven’t seen in quite some time. With elite RB
Robinson, run-pass balance was achieved. Bad coaching hurt them early. A new staff tries to build on their late momentum.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: 1 st off, I’m thrilled at the GM change. Is this the year Atlanta actually keeps their picks?
Raheem Morris was a bottom five coach. Kevin Stafanski is at least a partial upgrade. Tommy Rees is the new offensive
coordinator, with no change at defensive coordinator. Let’s see how they fare.
How was the 2025 draft class? I gave them credit for finally drafting any pass rusher (they took two), but they vastly overpaid
for Pierce, losing a valuable 2026 1 st round pick, which the Rams gladly accepted. Here’s what I said a year ago: Bottom Line: I
hate when below par teams think drafting 5-6 players per year is sound draft strategy. It’s not, and if there are injuries, don’t
come crying, as your GM didn’t feel the need to fortify the roster. I liked the promise of their 1 st three picks. The two pass
rushers delivered, while I called safety Xavier Watts (92 tackles, 5 picks) their BEST pick. Atlanta got talent, just not enough.

Draft needs – 2026: WR2/3. Run stopper, LB, CB and/or NB, OC/OL depth, #2 RB. Atlanta lacks a WR2. The DL wasn’t good in
2025 and edge rusher/OLB Pierce is likely to be suspended. CB and OL have talent, but the units are not complete.

CAROLINA: 8-9, -69 point differential, 66.3% pass D, 30 defensive sacks, strong return defense

How they ended 2025: How “strong” was the NFC South? Carolina lost three of their last four games and won the division.
The Rams ended their season, but the game was close (good Carolina wagering spot). As we know, Bryce Young ran hot or
cold, and almost never in-between. Carolina is an example of a team that must improve if it wants to return to the playoffs.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: No changes were made. Dave Canales is acceptable as a Head Coach. I’m yet fully ready
to evaluate OC Brad Idzik, but Canales calls the plays. DC Ejiro Evero must show a bit more this upcoming season. He’s
somewhat hampered by a draft team that likes to squander picks. To ascend, the Panthers must STOP trading away picks.
How was the 2025 draft class? With 99% of the “experts” saying edge rusher (mostly Walker), the Panthers opted for
immediate help to jump start the offense. WR McMillan was an instant success. Coming back twice with edge was a nice
touch but the players selected were lower rated on my board. There’s still upside, but 2025 stats were modest. In my recap I
laid out a scenario that was EASY to attain. They would get Xavier Watts and Oronde Gadsden without sacrificing picks, while
still adding higher rated edge rushers. The overall focus was good, and the players were mostly rated, but better was possible.

Draft needs – 2026: LB, CB, edge rusher, TE decision, DB depth. Carolina is down two starting LB’s, with little in reserve. One
CB upgrade is necessary. With just 30 sacks, the Panthers need help getting to opposing QB’s. Do they shoot for a stud TE?

CHICAGO: 11-6, +26 point differential, 66.6% pass D, 24 sacks allowed, below par return game defense

How they ended 2025: Coaching matters. Chicago found ways to lose games in some very strange ways in 2024. Last year
they were the beneficiaries of positive late game “luck”. Helping matters was a +22 turnover ratio, which of course will be
hard to replicate. I’ll be most curious to see how Ben Johnson develops QB Caleb Williams with this full offseason (and a year’s
worth of tape). Chicago was sacked 67 times in 2024. Optimism is high in the windy city.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Only New England had a similar coaching disparity, in a good way. Defensively, Dennis
Allen didn’t produce a perfect stat sheet (other than turnovers), but injuries hurt the secondary. I suspect they will improve
with this being year #2. I’m not a big (GM) Ryan Poles fan, but he’s improving. He still misses badly with college drafted OL.
How was the 2025 draft class? The class was hit and miss. TE Loveland and WR Burden were hits. Picks made after that (two
more in the 2 nd round, and the next three as well) were misses, which did not surprise me. Both OL sat (one was injured), and
one of the OL received the dreaded NR grade, meaning NOT DRAFT WORTHY. Chicago had three such grades. 7 th round RB
Kyle Monangai was properly rated, and exceeded my expectations. He made an impact in Chicago’s run game.
Draft needs – 2026: 3 DB’s, 2 WR’s, LB, edge rusher. Free agency gutted the secondary. The Bears need more outside targets
for Caleb. Jack Sanborn does not adequately replace Tremaine Edmunds. Chicago had a modest 35 defensive sacks last year.
DALLAS: 7-9-1, 68.5% pass defense, 4.7 per carry defense
How they ended 2025: The hiring of DC Matt Eberflus was a disaster. They never were competitive, and went 1-4 down the
stretch, allowing 169 points, while hitting rock bottom in every defensive stat. There’s not much else to say.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Christian Parker is the new DC. He’s just 34 years’ old, with five years of NFL experience
coaching DBs. It’s still likely an upgrade, even if he learns on the job. The defensive roster will likely be much better as well.
How was the 2025 draft class? Four of my top five needs received attention. I’ve consistently stated that Dallas does their
homework with players expected to go in the early rounds. OG Booker was an instant starter. Edge Ezeiruaku and CB Revel
weren’t ready, but have solid upside. LB Shemar James was my sleeper pick and he had 80 tackles. I was not impressed with
their two RB choices in what was a deep RB draft. Luckily, free agent RB Williams was impressive. The late DTs were unrated
and not on my need board. I gave their draft a top ten grade. That grade remains, despite the usual day three misfires.

Draft needs – 2026: Pass rushers, run-stopping LB, RT, impact CB/DB. The defense was pretty bad in 2025. It needs fixing.

DETROIT: 9-8, +68 point differential, top five pass D%, 49 defensive sacks

How they ended 2025: The wheels fell off early after a 4-1 start. The Lions lost a boatload of coaches prior to 2025 and it
showed. There’s really no lack of offensive talent, but the over ambitious play calling was more miss than hit. Despite the
solid pass D%, points allowed were often too high. Stronger, and deeper draft classes could help get them back to the top.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Dan Campbell is an excellent motivator but not an X and O guy. That’s fine if you trust
your staff. Another new OC is here with Drew Petzing. He was Arizona’s OC for three years. Kevin Sheppard is in his 2 nd year
as DC. He improved the pass rush and pass D% in year #1, but the Lions allowed 110 more points this past season!
How was the 2025 draft class? Like most others, I had the Lion’s with a bottom four draft class. Showing restraint, they only
traded UP three times, although of course all trades up were unnecessary. Why draft for volume? Last year I laughed out loud
with the following title of an article. The caption: Does Lions GM Brad Holmes have a reach problem in the NFL Draft? DT
Williams was used in a limited role (2 nd round talent, picked in the 1 st round) but should be fine. OG Rutledge was fine. WR
TeSlaa was a big reach, but managed 6 TDs amongst his 16 total catches. Regardless of his output, he would have been
available 50 picks later. All other picks recorded virtually no stats or playing time. Here’s your set of steak knives.

Draft needs – 2026: OL starter and depth, DE, CB to challenge the incumbents, impact OLB, extra WR. The OL need seems
obvious. I’d upgrade DE opposite of Hutchinson. I’d do the same at CB/NB. The defense let down at times in 2025.

GREEN BAY: 13-4, +79 point ratio, strong OL with just 29 sacks allowed

How they ended 2025: GB ended the regular season with four straight losses, and then lost to the Bears in the playoffs
(thanks). QB Love was hurt in game #15, and while Willis was showing some talent, he did not secure any victories. GB is often
portrayed as the youngest team in the NFL. Set in their ways, it seems like they keep falling short of expectations.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: I like Head Coach Matt LeFleur, but I wouldn’t call him a top five-eight coach. Jeff Hafley
did a credible job as DC, but he’s off to Miami. Ex-Arizona Head Coach Jonathan Gannon takes over. He was Philly’s DC for two
years prior to his Arizona stint. Is he the right guy? I have no issue with GB changing special team coordinators.
How was the 2025 draft class? As my readers know, GB loves to double up on areas of need, and they do so early in the draft.
I was of the minority who did NOT think WR was a big need. GB disagreed, going WR in the 1 st and 3 rd rounds. Edge however,
made my list, as did OL. These needs received two picks apiece as well. I would have approached this draft differently. WRs
Golden and Savion Williams combined for 39 receptions. Again, why WR so early? The two OL sat. The three DL combined for
28 tackles. The LB had no stats. That’s it, and CB, a need on MY board, was ignored. Thus far, their draft grades out worse
than it was 12 months ago (C+, 25 th by the NFL composite of 24 national sources).

Draft needs – 2026: 2 OL, 2 DB’s, DE, RB, DT, day three TE. Two quality OL starters left in free agency. All CB starters remain,
but I question how good the unit is. Counting last year, two DL left for Dallas in the past eight months or so. Josh Jacobs ran
4.0 per carry, which is below par. He needs a partner. The run D started to slip late in 2025. Could the TE room be fortified?

LA RAMS: 12-5, 47-23 sack ratio

How they ended 2025: One bad bounce in the 38-37 loss to Seattle was the difference between being the #1 seed and the #5
seed. LA, armed with the 2 nd highest Power Number, was still able to rematch against Seattle, but the defense wasn’t up to the
task. LA’s point defense crashed from 11/30 on out. They know it, and have already begun work to fix the secondary.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: McVay is one of the elite coaches in the past 15-20 years. They lose Mike LaFleur, but
McVay calls the plays. Chris Shula returns as DC. He has talent to work with in 2026 and will be rightfully scrutinized based on
his results. As expected, LA changed special team coordinators after that unit also cost them a #1 seed opportunity. Ray
Ventrone has 12 years of special team coaching experience (Cleveland 2023-2025). GM Les Snead changed his ways a few
years ago and stockpiled day two and day three picks. The results have been well above average.
How was the 2025 draft class? With that being said, I had LA with a bottom four draft class last year (NFL composite tie 17 th ).
TE Ferguson stretched the field, and could be in for a slightly bigger role (11 receptions). OLB Stewart and DT Hamilton
combined for 33 tackles in reserve roles. I don’t see them as surefire NFL starters. RB Hunter sat. The other picks sat or were
waived, so this class deserved the post-draft rating I gave them. I’ve done this for 46 years. This wasn’t their best effort.

Draft needs – 2026: 1-2 OL, WR, one run stopper, safety depth. Stafford makes the OL look better than they really are.
There’s clutter behind WR’s Nacua and the older Adams. The run D occasionally goes south. LA is very thin at safety.

MINNESOTA: 9-8, 60 sacks allowed

How they ended 2025: With all the gloom and doom that people felt about the Vikings, 9-8, and a closing five-game win streak
was more than solid. They only faced one playoff team during that stretch, and it was a GB team that rested everyone, so keep
that in mind. Turnovers were an issue all season long, and Justin Jefferson never meshed with JJ McCarthy. Read my coaches
take for why I feel Minny can improve. Meanwhile, an interesting QB battle is on tap for the Fall.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: The lead staff remains intact. Kevin O’Connell is clearly above average, and despite
completely ignoring DB needs, Brian Flores delivered a competent defense. I’ve been bothered for YEARS about the quality of
OL play. I strongly believed the talent was there. HARK! After five years, the OL coach is gone. They’ve allowed 200 sacks
over four years. Keith Carter should be an upgrade. Interim GM Rob Brzezinski will run the draft.
How was the 2025 draft class? I detested the (sideways) moves GM Adofo-Mensah made during his tenure. He closed it with
my 32 nd rated draft class, completely ignoring DB needs. This was a draft of five. OG Jackson was properly drafted (although I
wanted a DB). A new OL coach should help. Three others sat or are gone, with one lower rated DT garnering 11 tackles. WOW

Draft needs – 2026: All new DL, safety, CB, WR3/4, RB, TE2. 2 DL and one safety are gone, and both units were 2025 needs.

NEW ORLEANS: 6-11, issues with their return defense

How they ended 2025: New Orleans came into 2025 with one of the weakest rosters. They left 2025 with something to build
on after winning games 13-16, losing just by two at Atlanta in the finale. Rookie QB Shough looked poised, and the offense
responded. I thought the defense would miss Dennis Allen. The #’s stood up. It took time, but the team is on the right track.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: I like Head Coach Kellen Moore and I hope the team gives him some talent to work with. I
was at least slightly concerned with new DC Brandon Staley. I’ll monitor him in 2026 after a decent 2025. Mickey Loomis has
been the GM since 2002. Enough is enough! The Saints are famous for only trading UP in the draft. Please stop the madness.
How was the 2025 draft class? It was nice to see the Saints actually draft nine players. I showed value only three times, with
all three delivering. OT Banks was a no-brainer. CB Riley and LB Stutsman combined for 64 tackles. The Saints also got
mileage out of free safety Sanker, while one other player, DL Broughton was injured but the hope is that he will be decent.
While some players missed, QB Shough was a real hit. There’s tape on him now, but I didn’t rate him as a 2 nd rounder and he
proved me wrong as a rookie. The national ratings for New Orleans had them 28 th . This class looks much better than that.

Draft needs – 2026: WR 2/3, CB, DL depth, safety and safety depth, LB. Tipton and Vele are the current WR’s behind Olave.
Counting NB, the back end of the defense needs at least one starter and some depth. Two of five DL contributors are gone,
with no one added. The LB need moves UP if Cam Jordan ends up leaving.

NYG: 4-13, -58 point ratio, 1-8 road record, 48 sacks allowed, 4.5/145+ run defense

How they ended 2025: Famous for slow starts, the NYG ended 2025 with a two-game win streak. Jaxton Dart got in some
valuable playing time, and the offense began to jell (68 points). Sacks allowed remained a problem, but the defense allowed
just 43 points in their final three games. Does this mean anything? Likely not, but it’s better than losing.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Attention to detail will improve under John Harbaugh, who is also known for getting his
team ready in August (great preseason record, he cares). The NYG typically start 1-5, so this is a good thing. Matt Nagy is
decent (at times) and is the new OC. I was disappointed Dennard Wilson had a tough time as Tennessee’s DC. I like his
aggressive style. We’ll see if it was due to a lack of talent, or if his schemes are not good enough. Joe Schoen gets mixed
reviews. I think he’s pretty good at acquiring talent. The downside is that he overtrades, leading to smaller draft classes.
How was the 2025 draft class? This class was rated 2 nd best by the national composite and a B for me. I was disappointed they
waited so long to draft an OL, and the DB choice was unrated. Edge rusher Carter could have star potential. QB Dart will be
fine if he stays upright, an issue with his playing style. DT Alexander found an early rotational role. RB Skattebo was born to be
a NYG with his blue blood style. All players were drafted at their appropriate range, but this was NOT the 2 nd best NFL draft.

Draft needs – 2026: 2 run-stoppers, WR’s, OG, CB, safety, LB. I’d get two each vs. the run, at WR and OG, and two DB’s.

PHILLY: 11-6, #1 pass defense at 56.8%

How they ended 2025: Philly “seemed” consistent all season, never really ascending to be a feared team (lots of lucky wins
early), and never showing meaningful improvement at the end of 2025. RB Barkley did play much better down the stretch, but
as per usual, the offense revolved around very few offensive players. QB Hurts kept mistakes to a minimum, but didn’t act like
a top tier QB. This team has plenty of talent, but also plenty of drama. Putting that drama aside is critical moving forward.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Beleaguered OC Kevin Patullo lasted one season. Sean Mannion (from THE OSU) is the
new guy in charge. This will be interesting, as in 2023 he was still a player! He was GB’s QB coach last year. QB Hurts praised
him on 3/14, but how ready is Mannion? DC Fangio is good. Nick Siriani receives a lot of flak but I think he’s a bit underrated
(but not a top 5-7 coach). Howie Roseman famously missed on Justin Jefferson (I mocked him for taking Reagor), but most
everything else he’s done has been excellent, especially with free agency and contract setting. The drafts are modestly good.
How was the 2025 draft class? One thing Howie does well is steal 1 st round talent, either by a sneaky trade or like last year,
getting LB Campbell at pick 31. 2 nd round safety Mukuba earned some starting time in a nice debut. The rest of the draft was
average at best, with three defensive picks adding depth, and some lower rated OL also sitting. I’m not sure any more starters
will really come from this group. The draft was well received but I’d like to have seen WR and TE added to the mix.

Draft needs – 2026: LB/edge, safety, TE, OL youth, WR? Philly is a net -3 at LB and -2 at safety after free agency. This is likely
TE Goedert’s last year here. The OL needs a succession plan as well. WR needs depend on the status of AJ Brown.

SAN FRANCISCO: 12-5, +66 point ratio, the usual high (68.2% pass defense, 20-27 sack ratio (20 was last), 3.8 yards-per-carry run offense, some issues with the return defense.

How they ended 2025: After another decent performance from Mac Jones (42-26 loss to the Rams), Brock Purdy returned and
SF went 6-0 down the stretch, putting themselves in a position to steal the #1 seed in the NFC. Visiting Seattle shut them down
13-3 to end that dream. SF was helped by a 4 th place schedule, but hurt by injuries to extremely key players, which is a yearly
occurrence for this snakebitten team. Still, there are things that need fixing, such as the pass rush and pass coverage.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Maybe Kyle Shanahan isn’t perfect in end game situations, but he’s excellent with scheme
design and the 1 st 15-20 scripted plays usually work. With Robert Salah off to coach Tennessee, Raheem Morris is the new DC.
He had some moments in that role years ago, but oversaw a defense (as Head Coach) in Atlanta that often underachieved. I
like their special team coordinator even with the below par 2025 defense. GM Lynch is fine, yet slightly overrated on draft day.
How was the 2025 draft class? SF usually drafts in quantity, and usually receives an average draft grade. That stayed the same
in 2025. SF likes to build from the inside on out. They went defense with their 1 st five picks, four of which were aimed at the
front seven. As many as three will start down the road, but they mostly had modest rookie stats and need to be coached up.
CB Upton Stout did start, with 82 tackles. He may have started partly due to the extreme CB need. WR Watkins was hurt, but
showed flashes on a team that needs WRs. Safety Sigle had 46 tackles, again confirming that SF’s roster was void of DB talent
and depth (I’ve said this for years). All other picks did not contribute, and based on my ratings, likely won’t down the road.

Draft needs – 2026: Several pass rushers, cover CB and safety, OL, impact LB, WR. The 1 st two needs are obvious. SF needs to
finally reduce the pass D%. Down one OL, the Trent Williams situation is a much watch. WR assumes Juwan Jennings leaves.

SEATTLE: 14-3, 47-27 sack ratio, elite run defense, strong return game offense

How they ended 2025: Seattle got better as the season rolled along, especially defensively. They allowed 37 points to the
Rams down the stretch, and 38 points in five of the other six closing games. Kenneth Walker stayed healthy, and that gave
Sam Darnold the balance he needed to be successful. Seattle earned the #1 Power Rating in December and never let it go.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: What a nice two year run it has been for Head Coach Mike Macdonald. He loses OC Klint
Kubiak and replaces him with Brian Fleury, who has 12 years of NFL experience, the last seven with rival SF. John Schneider is
the long time GM (2010). He broke the random, off-the-wall draft pattern he and Pete Carroll used for years about four years
ago and instead delivered back-to-back top three draft classes. The class of 2025 (listed below) remained fairly solid.
How was the 2025 draft class? Seattle’s draft was very favorably thought off. Gray Zabel was a perfect fit. So was safety Nick
Emmanwori. TE Arroyo gives the team some nice scheme options. QB Milroe has a big learning curve, but if all goes well, he’ll
get the time he needs. WR Horton was looking good until he was hurt. The other five picks weren’t useful.

Draft needs – 2026: RB, safety, center and right-side OL depth. Sam Darnold will regress without a balanced attack. The
safety spot looks bare. The OL held up quite well, but I still feel upgrades are needed. This is a short list.

TAMPA: 8-9, 66.7% pass defense (as usual),

How they ended 2025: Tampa was supposed to thrive down the stretch, with four divisional games and a trip to Miami. They
went 1-4, with no game decided by more than four points. The OL saw sacks allowed increase in these games, while Baker
Mayfield threw six of his eleven interceptions in these final five games. This was a near epic meltdown in my opinion.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Todd Bowles is a below average Head Coach. The stat sheet consistently is bottom tier,
and no lead is safe with their defensive scheme. They change OC’s, with Zac Robinson (Rams, then Atlanta) the new guy.
Morris has inserted himself as the DC. That still scares me. Danny Smith spent 13 years with the Steelers. I don’t mind this
hire. GM Jason Licht has been here since 2014. He’s been decent, especially when compared to his NFC South counterparts.
How was the 2025 draft class? This was a small, but nice class. WR Egbuka and CB Parrish were favorites of mine and both
start. CB Morrison was properly drafted and had 26 tackles. The two edge rushers were backups, but I like David Walker (IR).
7 th round WR Tez Johnson had a 5 th round grade on my board and ended up with 20 receptions.

Draft needs – 2026: LB, CB, edge rusher, OL, TE2 or impact TE, DL. LB David retired and LB Reddick is unreliable. CB Dean is
gone and the pass D% was already poor. Tampa needs a go-to edge rusher. The OL is just “ok”. Do they swing for TE Sadiq?

WASHINGTON: 5-12, 4.7-134.7 run offense, 4.8-141.8 run defense, -13 turnover ratio, solid return game numbers

How they ended 2025: QB Daniels was hurt early, and despite no real reason (given their record) for him to return, he started
the 12/7 game at Minnesota, going 9-20 for 78 yards before getting re-injured. Washington beat an Eagle’s team not playing
their starters in the finale, but the season was long lost. The sack ratio improved at 16-8 in games 13-17 but most other
statistical areas remained the same. The schedule bump, including prime-time games, took its toll defensively.
My take on the 2026 coaching staff: Dan Quinn is an average coach, not as good as he looked in 2024, and not as bad as the
record showed in 2025. OC Kliff Kingsbury leaves his QB unprotected too much. The change is good. David Blough was a
player in 2023, an assistant here in 2024, and a QB coach in 2025. Is he ready for this role (at least he knows the organization)?
A DC change was also warranted. Daronte Jones comes over from Minnesota (DB coach). Learning under Brian Flores, I
wonder if he’ll bring blitz tendencies to the Commanders? Veteran Larry Izzo returns as special team coordinator. The GM is
Adam Peters. He “changed the culture” in 2024, the term I penned. Now he must stack the roster with higher rated players.
How was the 2025 draft class? I liked the GM’s initial 2024 class because they took rated players with team-oriented character
at a time they needed it. Some higher rated players were left on the table. 2025 was a draft of just five players due to trades.
Josh Conerly starts at RT, as expected. Trey Amos contributed as a DB. WR Lane saw modest action but put up decent return
numbers. The LB pick was a wash, but lightly seasoned RB Jacoby Croskey-Merritt was a late round hit (some fumbling issues).

Draft needs – 2026: CB, run stopper, LG and/or center, 1-2 WR’s, edge rusher, young TE, RB. Washington added as many as
six defensive starters through free agency, but especially at CB, impact is missing. Also, the team is on a two-year run of not
stopping rush attacks of their opponents. Is adding Van Jefferson and Dyami Brown enough at WR?