The AFC North –

The AFC North once again proved to be the most predictable division in football — at least for people who don’t actually watch football. In our minds, the Ravens were supposed to win this thing comfortably, but who can ever stop Mike Tomlin and this perfectly mediocre Steelers team that insists on overachieving every single year. At this point, should we even call it overachieving? Maybe we’re the real underachievers for continuing to fade them like we haven’t learned a single lesson. If you want to dig deeper into that dynamic, the Tomlin effect is always worth revisiting.

This season brings a level of organizational chaos I genuinely don’t remember seeing in one division at the same time. Three of the four teams are rolling out new head coaches, which makes the AFC North feel less like a division and more like a group project where everyone suddenly decided to start over the night before it’s due. If you want to explore how these changes might reshape things, the coaching turnover is a storyline on its own.

One thing that didn’t change much is the quarterback situation. Even Aaron Rodgers decided to wrap up his annual offseason drama a bit earlier this year — which, for him, still counts as late by normal human standards. The rest of the division stays steady under center, which might be the only stable thread holding this whole thing together. For more on that, the QB landscape is surprisingly unchanged.

The good news for everyone involved is that the AFC North gets the luxury of playing the AFC South and NFC South — easily the two softest divisions in football right now. That’s a gift-wrapped schedule boost, at least for the moment. The only wrinkle is that the AFC has the extra road game this year, so we’ll see how much that matters once the grind sets in. If you want to look at how this schedule shapes the race, the strength of schedule angle is worth watching.

Best Bet:  Ravens under 11.5 wins

AFC North – Full Offensive Rankings With Actual Values (2025 EPA Data)

(Rank = position out of 32 teams)

Odds to win the Division:

• Ravens -115
• Bengals +194
• Steelers +510
• Browns +2100

1. Baltimore Ravens 

Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the under -140

2025 Wins:  8

Pythagorean Wins:  9.33

Schedule: Easy – At large vs Dallas*, @ Bills, vs Chargers

Schedule Last Year: Medium Hard

Key losses:  Coach John Harbaugh, C Tyler Linderbaum, TE Isaiah Likely, Edge Dremont Jones, TE Charlie Kolar, S Alohi Gilman, RB Keaton Mitchell, FB Patrick Rickard, S Ar’Darius Washington, Edge Kyle Van Noy, WR DeAndre Hopkins, QB Cooper Rush, T Joseph Noteboom

Key additions: Coach Jessee Minter, OC Declan Doyle, Edge Trey Hendrickson, G John Simpson, S Jaylinn Hawkins, DT Calais Campbell, TE Durham Smythe, C Danny Pinter

Key Draft Picks: G Olaivavega Ioane, Edge Zion Young, WR Jacobi Lane, WR Elijah Surratt, TE Matthew Hibner and a bunch of dudes

Summary: 

So who had to go — Lamar Jackson or John Harbaugh? In today’s NFL, and especially in Baltimore, that question wasn’t exactly difficult to answer. What is ironic is that the Ravens replaced Harbaugh with a coach who was essentially raised by the Harbaugh family tree anyway. He comes straight from Jim’s Chargers staff after previously serving as a position coach in Baltimore about six years ago. If nothing else, there’s at least some philosophical consistency there, even if the rest of the organization feels like it’s being rewired. For more on that coaching lineage, the Harbaugh connection is worth noting.

What won’t be consistent is the offensive system. It looks like Baltimore is leaning toward a Ben Johnson–style scheme with Bears offensive coordinator Declan Doyal stepping in. He’s still pretty green, and that could lead to some rough patches when working with quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson, who require a very specific balance of structure and freedom. If you want to dive deeper into that fit, the Doyal offense raises plenty of questions.

Personnel changes only add to the uncertainty. The Ravens lose tight end depth with Isaiah Likely moving on, and they’ve taken real hits along the offensive line — including losing their center. The receiving group looks thin unless rookies Jacobi Lane and Elijah Surratt hit the ground running, which is never a guarantee. The Ravens skill positions feel like a work in progress.

Defensively, I expect Coach Jesse Minter to take full control, and I don’t anticipate major schematic changes. The edge group should be solid after they paid a premium for Trey Hendrickson, but I still think this team will struggle against the pass. They ranked 22nd in opponent drop‑back EPA last season, and I’m not convinced they’ve fixed that. The linebackers remain strong with Roquan Smith leading the way, but the nose tackle spot looks a little soft to me. If you want to explore that further, the Ravens defensive outlook is full of red flags.

Overall, age feels like it could catch up to this roster, and the offense will need to score consistently to keep them afloat. With all these questions — new coaches, new scheme, roster turnover, and shaky pass defense — I have to lean under their win total. It just feels too high for a team with this many unknowns.

My Number:  9.67

Action – Under 11.5 wins -140 – 1 star

Baltimore Raven’s power rating: 3

2.  Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -140

2025 Wins:  6

Pythagorean Wins: 6.77

Schedule: Easy  –  At large @ Dolphins, @ Commanders, vs Chiefs

Schedule Last Year:  Medium

Key losses: Edge Trey Hendricksen, Edge Joseph Ossai, TE Noah Fant, G Lucas Patrick, G Cordell Volson

Key additions: DT Dexter Lawrence, Edge Boye Mafe, S Bryan Cook, DT Jonathan Allen, S Kyle Dugger

Key Draft Picks:  Edge Cashius Howell, CB Tacario Davis, C Conner Lew

Summary:  

My Number: 9.89

Action:  Bengals to win AFC +1000 – .25 stars

Cincinnati Bengals Power Rating: -2

3.  Pittsburgh Steelers

Vegas win total: 8.5 juiced to the under -120

2025 Wins: 10

Pythagorean Wins:  8.12

Schedule: Medium – At large @ Patriots, @ Eagles, vs Broncos

Schedule Last Year:  Medium 

Key losses:  Coach Mike Tomlin, G Isaac Seumalo, RB Kenneth Gainwell, CB James Pierre, TE Conner Heyward, S Miles Killebrew, WR Calvin Austin, TE Jonnu Smith, DT Daniel Ekuale

Key additions:  Coach Mike McCarthy, OC Brian Angelichio, DC Patrick Graham, WR Michael Pittman, CB Jamel Dean, RB Rico Dowdle, DT Sebastian Joseph, S Jaquon Brisker, C Brock Hoffman

Key Draft Picks: T Max Iheanachor, WR Germie Bernard, QB Drew Allar, CB Daylen Everette and a bunch of dudes

Summary:  

If I had to think of a worse person to hire to coach Aaron Rodgers, it would take me a while to come up with a better (or worse) choice than Mike McCarthy. As a Bears fan, I personally enjoyed every second of their breakup and the blame‑fest that followed in Green Bay. Looking back at last season, this team massively overachieved again, winning ten games despite a Pythagorean win total hovering around eight. With all the coaching changes, it’s tough to lean too heavily on last year’s results, but there are still some clear trends worth noting. For more on that dynamic, the Rodgers–McCarthy history is always entertaining.

Offensively, I think coordinator Brian Angelichio might be fine after learning under Kevin O’Connell, but the defensive coordinator coming over from the Raiders is… not inspiring. He’s part of the NFL’s “boys club,” the group of coaches who keep getting recycled from team to team regardless of performance. The Michael Pittman trade looks serviceable, but let’s not forget how badly the DK Metcalf experiment went last year. Somehow the better receiver, Calvin Austin, was the one who had to go. If you want to dig deeper into that roster shuffle, the Steelers receiver situation is a mixed bag.

Statistically, the Steelers were a slightly below‑average defensive team and a very good rushing team thanks to Kenneth Gainwell. The real issue was the passing game, which ranked 26th in success rate — a number that explains a lot about their offensive ceiling. The draft didn’t help much either after the first pick. I still have no idea why you take Drew Allar when you just drafted Howard last year. On the bright side, I do like the defensive additions of Jamel Dean and Jaquan Brisker. The secondary should improve as long as T.J. Watt stays healthy and keeps terrorizing quarterbacks. The weak spot could be middle linebacker, because I’m not exactly a Patrick Queen believer. For more on that, the Steelers defensive outlook is worth tracking.

All in all, I just can’t imagine Mike McCarthy stepping in and leading this team to the promised land. At best, I see an average team — talented enough to hang around, flawed enough to frustrate you. I’m not betting the under anymore, but I’m definitely not buying the hype either.

My Number:  8.56

Action – No Play

Pittsburgh Steelers Power Rating: -1

4.  Cleveland Browns

Vegas win total: 5.5 Juiced to the over -150

2025 Wins:  5

Pythagorean Wins:  5.92

Schedule: Easy – At large @ NY Jets, vs Raiders, @ NY Giants

Schedule Last Year:  Medium Easy

Key losses:  Coach Kevin Stefanski, Edge Myles Garrett, G Wyatt Teller, Edge Cam Thomas, DT Shelby Harris, TE David Njoku, T Jack Conklin, G Joel Bitonio, T Cam Robinson, C Ethan Pocic, T Cornelius Lucas

Key additions:  Coach Todd Monken, OC Travis Switzer, DC Mike Rutenberg, Edge Jared Verse, QB DeShaun Watson, G Zion Johnson, C Elgton Jenkins, LB Quincy Williams, G Teven Jenkins, S Daniel Thomas, DT Kalia Davis

Key Draft Picks:  T Spencer Fano, WR KC Concepcion, WR Denzel Boston, S Emmanuel Mcneil-Warren, T Austin Barber, C Parker Brailsford, LB Justin Jefferson, QB Talen Green

Summary:  

The Browns do Browns things. You know — like trading the best player in football. Do I disagree with it? Not necessarily, if you’re the Browns, but it’s still pathetic to watch unfold. Either way, we’re going to see a completely new version of this team with a new head coach and a quarterback who hasn’t played more than nineteen games since 2021. There are so many changes here that it’s almost impossible to get a firm grasp on what this team will actually be. If you want to explore that chaos, the Browns overhaul is a full reset.

Let’s start with the coaching staff. I never liked Kevin Stefanski as much as the media did, but while the rest of the league is hiring young offensive minds, the Browns went with Todd Monken — a guy in his early sixties. I honestly have no idea how this will go, especially with Travis Switzer coming in from a long tenure with the Ravens as offensive coordinator. It’s hard to imagine a smooth first year. For more on that dynamic, the Monken hire raises plenty of questions.

Then there’s the quarterback situation. I don’t even know if Deshaun Watson is good anymore. I don’t know if Shedeur Sanders could politic his way into the starting job over him. What I do know is that the Browns will be rolling out a brand‑new offensive line that’s going to take time to gel. They have some solid running backs and exactly one decent wide receiver in Jerry Jeudy — at least until we see what the draft picks become. The Browns offensive outlook feels shaky at best.

Defensively, the Browns somehow ranked fourth in defensive EPA last year. How much of that was Myles Garrett being a one‑man wrecking crew? How much was opponents running the clock out while up multiple scores? New defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg comes in from the Falcons, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. The good news is that linebacker Carson Schwesinger was a rare bright spot in an otherwise gloomy 2025 season, and he gives this defense at least one reliable anchor. If you want to dig deeper, the Browns defensive identity is still very much in flux.

For this season, I expect the offense to start out rough while the defense keeps games low‑scoring. Early in the year, this feels like a team you take a lot of unders on.

My Number: 4.96

Action:  Lean Under

Cleveland Browns Power Rating: -7

The NFC West

The NFC West spent last season flexing as the strongest division in football. The Seahawks and Rams were power‑rated one and two, while the 49ers were good but once again caught the dreaded injury bug. And the Cardinals? Well… they remained the red‑headed stepchild of the division — scrappy enough to keep games close, but not exactly striking fear into anyone.

This season brings some major shakeups. The Seahawks are staring down the classic Super Bowl hangover, the Cardinals fired their coach and hit the reset button again, and the Rams and 49ers are trying to figure out whether they’re ascending or plateauing.

The division draws the NFC East and AFC West for the 2026–2027 schedule, which I’d call medium‑hard — not a gauntlet, but definitely not a stroll through the park either.

Can the NFC West produce back‑to‑back Super Bowl champions? The market seems to think it’s possible.

Here’s what I think.

Best Bet – 49ers over 9.5 wins – 1 star

🏈 NFC West — Full League‑Context Rankings + NFC West Grid

1️⃣ Offense — League Ranks for NFC West Teams

EPA/play (Offense)

(From dataset #1)

2️⃣ Defense — League Ranks for NFC West Teams

EPA/play (Defense)

(Reminder: more negative = better)

3️⃣ Composite Score (EPA Differential)

Formula:

Divisional Futures: 

• LA Rams +100
• Seattle Seahawks +205
• SF +305
• Cardinals +10000

1. LA Rams –

Vegas win total: 11.5 juiced to the over -115

2025 Wins: 12

Pythagorean Wins:  12.08

Schedule: Hard – At large games vs Bills, vs Packers, @ Buccaneers

Schedule Last Year: Hard

Key losses:  Edge Jared Verse, CB Decobie Durant, CB Ahkello Witherspoon, CB Roger McCreary, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, OC Mike Lefleur.

Key additions:  OC Kliff Kingsbury, Edge Myles Garrett, CB Jaylen Watson, LB Grant Stuard, CB Trent McDuffie

Key Draft Picks: QB Ty Simpson, TE Max Klare, T Keagan Trost

Summary

The Rams keep doing Rams things — looking dominant one week and producing absolute head‑scratchers the next. They did make it to the NFC Championship against the Seahawks, but let’s be honest: they probably should’ve lost earlier playoff games to both the Panthers and the Bears. They also entered the postseason as one of the healthiest teams in the league, which certainly didn’t hurt.

Still, I had them power‑rated right alongside the Seahawks, and that carries over.

This offseason, the Rams lost far less talent than Seattle, and then swung for the fences with a massive trade for Myles Garrett, giving up a mountain of future picks. If I were grading the future of this franchise, I’d hand out straight F’s — but the Rams don’t care about 2028. They care about right now, and for this season, the move makes perfect sense. Garrett is the best defensive player in football and commands double‑teams on nearly every snap. He also tends to stay healthy, which is a luxury in this division.

Their trade involving Jared Verse tells me he wasn’t exactly living up to his first‑round billing. Maybe some locker‑room friction, maybe just mediocre 2025 play — either way, the Rams clearly weren’t impressed.

They did lose a few cornerbacks in free agency but replaced them with Jaylen Watson & Trent McDuffie, which is fine as long as that defensive line keeps generating pressure (and with Garrett, they should).

Offensively, the machine should keep humming. Puka returns healthy, and while OC Mike LaFleur left to coach the Cardinals, the Rams promoted Nate Scheelhaase to offensive coordinator. The scheme won’t change much, and they even added Kliff Kingsbury as assistant head coach — a fantastic offensive mind who gives them an extra spark.

Now… the draft. Yeah. That gets an F from me. Reaching for Ty Simpson early in the first round — during what should be the beginning of a rebuild — is the kind of move that gets revisited with a lot of mud thrown at Les Snead if a key injury hits this roster.

My Number: 11.54

Action – No Play

LA Rams power rating:  6.5

2. Seattle Seahawks –

Vegas win total: 10.5 juiced to the under -115

2025 Wins:  14

Pythagorean Wins:  13.34

Schedule: Medium Hard – At large vs Patriots, vs Bears, @ Panthers

Schedule Last Year: Hard

Key losses: OC Klint Kubiak, Edge Boye Mafe, RB Kenneth Walker, S Coby Bryant, CB Tariq Woolen, RB Cam Akers

Key additions: OC Brian Fleury, Edge Donte Fowler Jr., CB Noah Igbinoghene

Key draft picks: RB Jadarian Price, S Bud Clark and a bunch of dudes.

Summary

Let’s all agree to pretend I didn’t pick the Seahawks to finish dead last in the division. Cool? Great. Because Sam Darnold made me look like an absolute clown — and honestly, I might do it again, but he definitely exceeded every expectation I had.

Last year’s Seahawks were built on near‑perfect defensive play. Nobody could get past them. Yes, being the No. 1 seed helped, and yes, the AFC sent a Patriots team that basically tripped and fell into the playoffs, but Seattle still had to grind through a brutal schedule to reach 14 wins. They earned that.

Now, about the draft: I’m not exactly in love with taking Jadarian Price to replace Kenneth Walker. It gives off big Clyde Edwards‑Helaire energy, and that’s not a compliment. Losing edge rusher Boye Mafe and two secondary players could sting, though adding safety Bud Clark should help soften the blow. Even with those losses, I still think this is the best defense in the league.

Re‑signing Rashid Shaheed was smart — he’s a legit receiver and a special teams weapon. But offensively, this team only ranked 14th in EPA, and they didn’t have to do much because the defense carried them. That could become a problem if injuries hit. Losing OC Klint Kubiak doesn’t help either, though bringing in Brian Fleury from the Shanahan tree should keep things functional.

One big factor: the Seahawks were one of the healthiest teams in football last year. That usually doesn’t repeat. Will there be a Super Bowl hangover? Maybe. The schedule is tough again, though the +9 net rest days are a nice gift.

I’ve got this team power‑rated 2nd in the NFL, just a tick behind the Rams — but that could change fast once Week 1 hits.

My number: 11.67

Action – Lean over 10.5 wins

Seattle’s Power Rating:  6.25

3.  San Francisco 49ers –

Vegas Win Total:  9.5 juiced to the over -140

2025 Wins:  12

Pythagorean Wins:  10.53

Schedule:  Medium Easy – At large games vs Dolphins, @ Falcons, vs Vikings*

Schedule Last Year: Hard 

Key losses: DC Robert Saleh, WR Jauan Jennings, WR Kendrick Bourne, DT Jordan Elliot, Edge Yetur Gross-Matos, T Spencer Burford, RB Brian Robinson, DT Kalia Davis, DT Kevin Givens

Key additions:  WR Mike Evans, T Vederian Lowe, LB Dre Greenlaw, LB Luke Gifford, CB Nate Hobbs, WR Christian Kirk, G Brett Toth, DC Raheem Morris

Key Draft Picks:  WR De’Zhawn Stribbling, Edge Romello Height, RB Kaelon Black, DT Gracen Halton

Summary

Another year, another injury‑plagued season for the 49ers. At this point it’s practically a franchise tradition. It’s not stopping them from being good, but it sure keeps them from getting past the truly elite teams in the NFL.

Last year they lost a ton in free agency and had a rough draft. This year? They lost far less… but somehow managed to have another piss‑poor draft in my opinion. And yet, they still won 12 games. That’s pretty darn impressive.

To their credit, the 49ers were aggressive in free agency, landing Mike Evans as a red‑zone monster and Christian Kirk as a high‑end slot upgrade. That’s a massive improvement over Jauan Jennings and Kendrick Bourne. Christian McCaffrey is still doing Christian McCaffrey things, which is to say: being a cheat code. And George Kittle remains one of the best tight ends in football — when he’s not held together by athletic tape and prayers.

The offense will be fine. The defense, though… that’s where the concern creeps in.

Can Nick Bosa actually play a full season? Fred Warner returns from injury, but the trenches and secondary aren’t what they used to be. I’m also not a fan of Raheem Morris as defensive coordinator. Losing Robert Saleh still stings, and the Seahawks absolutely ate this team for breakfast last year.

The good news: the schedule eases up. Their at‑large games are against middle‑of‑the‑pack or outright bad teams. With Kyle Shanahan’s coaching and even a little bit of injury luck (I know, I know), the 49ers should be firmly in the mix again.

Their win total feels too low, especially with this softer 2026–2027 schedule. I’m going over.

My Number: 11.27

Action:  Over 9.5

San Francisco 49ers Power Rating: 3

4.  Arizona Cardinals – 

Vegas Win Total:  4.5 juiced to the under -160

2025 Wins:  3

Pythagorean Wins:  5.33

Schedule: Hard – at large vs Lions, vs Jets, @ Saints

Schedule Last Year: Hard

Key losses: Coach Jonathan Gannon, QB Kyler Murray, S Jalen Thompson, DT Dalvin Tomlinson, DE Calais Campbell, LB Ahkeem Davis-Gaither, G Evan Brown, RB Emari Demarcado, T Jonah Williams, Edge Bilal Nichols, T Calvin Beachum, G Will Hernandez.

Key additions: Coach Mike Lefleur, G Isaac Seumalo, RB Tyler Allgeier, DT Roy Lopez, WR Kendrick Bourne, G Elijah Wilkinson, and a bunch of fill in dudes.

Key Draft Picks: RB Jeremiyah Love, G Chase Bisontis, QB Carson Beck

Summary

Ok, can we also pretend the Cardinals weren’t my sleeper pick to win the NFC West in 2025. I’m taking hits from every direction here. But hey — it’s rebuilding time, and this season has full‑blown dumpster fire potential.

To be fair, the Cardinals did pick up some serviceable free agents and added an explosive playmaker at running back. The problem? The offensive line is once again going to be… well, bad. Like “I’m already worried about Jeremiyah Love’s health” bad. James Conner returns to mentor the kid, but he’s firmly in the twilight phase of his career.

The good news: they still have Trey McBride, the best tight end in football. The bad news: Marvin Harrison Jr. has been a disappointment so far. Maybe he finds his confidence again, but that’s more hope than expectation.

One thing I do like: the Carson Beck pick in the third round. He was the second‑best quarterback prospect in the draft in my opinion. If he gets on the field early and outperforms expectations, maybe — maybe — this season isn’t completely lost.

But the bigger issue is the defense. This team ranked 26th in EPA per play, then shed a ton of defenders while keeping the same defensive coordinator, Nick Rallis, which feels like a problem. A big one.

As of now, I have to assume the Cardinals will be competing for the No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft.

My Number:  4.17

Action – Lean Under

Arizona Cardinals Power Rating: -8