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Patriots vs Broncos +7.5 O/U 35.5
This should be a cold game with a chance of snow. My question is, what have the Broncos done to deserver to lay past a touchdown to any team in this league? A lot of what this Russell Wilson led team has done was with smoke and mirrors. Denver has a league high +13 fumble recoveries so far this season and a total of 24 takeaways. The Patriots are on the ass end of that with a 3rd worst 22nd in give-aways. From an offensive perspective the Patriots haven’t had a pass game until last week, but they can at least run the ball ranking 20th in rush EPA to Denver’s 15th. On defense, the Patriots grade better than the Broncos believe it or not at 15th in total defensive EPA to the Broncos ranking 26th. I think that the Patriots have success running the ball against one of the worst rushing defenses in football. If Bailey Zappe can play a clean game today, the Patriots have a chance in winning this. Take the points.
New England +7.5 – 2.5 stars
Teaser: Texans to +9 with the Titans to +9 – 3 stars. Both teams are home dogs playing two potential playoff frauds in the Browns and the Seahawks. The Browns are god awful on the road while the Seahawks haven’t blown anyone out not named the Giants on the Road.
We continue to CRUSH this bowl season. We are 6-1 ATS and just getting started my friends. Congratulations to everyone that has been on board so far, and for anyone on the fence about joining the team? Just take a look at our results. Will and want will always outweigh talent!
Here’s our updated numbers so far in the 2023-24 Bowl Season! All plays posted here or Twitter (X).
ATS: 6-1, +5.8 units
Totals: 0-1, -1.1u units
Money Lines: 2-2, +0.5 units
Parlays: 1-1, +1.05 units
Live: 1-0, +0.25 units
Total: 10-5, +6.5 units
Saturday, December 23rd
ML Parlay (-101): USA -900, Utah -238, SJSU -375, to win 0.75u
12:00pm ET- Duke vs Troy: This has no scoring written all over it. Oh boy, here we go with the totals again. Duke’s defense is the only way they stay in this game. Troy is so sound on the defensive side, and with Duke QB R. Leanord in the transfer portal, it will be hard for Duke to even get into plus territory. Troy won their 2022 bowl game 18-13 shutting down the Roadrunners of UTSA, keeping Duke off of the scoreboard is very plausible. They have the ability to shutout Duke here. Take the under, as well as the under on Duke’s team total.
Play(s): Under 44.5 (-110) to win 0.5u, Duke Team Total under 17.5 (-115) to win 0.7u
12:00pm ET- NIU vs Arkansas St: A pair of 6-6 middle of the road teams will square off in the Camilia Bowl in Montgomery, AL. MAC vs the Sun Belt. On the line: bragging rights, a bowl victory, more importantly some cash for the winning school. A victory for NIU would be a feeling they have not felt in sometime, 2011 was their last bowl victory. Versus whom you ask? Arkansas State. Also, their opponents on December 23rd. The Huskies are led by Senior 5-year starter Rocky Lombardi who is still looking for his 1st bowl win. NIU and Lombardi were unsuccessful in the 2021 Cure Bowl when they ran into buzzsaw CCU with Grayson McCall at QB and the Chancellors. Most of Lombardi’s teammates this season were also on that squad, making most of them juniors and seniors now, which I think will be the difference this bowl season facing an Arkansas St team led my mostly freshman and sophomores. With one of those Juniors being NIU phenom RB Antario Brown who is a game changer every time he touches the ball. Ark St may have the advantage in coaching, but the experience of NIU combined with a Red Wolves defense who couldn’t stop a thing in 2023, will all lead to an NIU victory! Give me the MAC in this match-up to run all over the Sun Belt!
Play(s): NIU +2.5 (-105) to win 1.25u, NIU ML (+120) risk 0.35u
3:30pm ET- Air Force vs JMU: No Hazziq Daniels and no Brad Roberts for the Falcons could prove to be quite a problem for Air Force when they square off with JMU playing their first ever collegiate bowl game. Less than 2 months ago, Air Force was 8-0 and 28-6 in their last 34 games, then the wheels fell off. Losing 4 straight as 18, 20 and 3-point favorites to end the season. Unable to even qualify for their conference championship. Yes, I do understand AF QB Zac Larrier was not playing these games and appears to be ready to go for the bowl game, but I look at this as a positive as we are getting a reduced line with him stepping on the field. Now they have to face a 11-1 JMU squad hungry to prove to the world they are very good. Now they do have issues of their own going on, former HC Curt Cignetti on his way to the Big Ten to coach Indiana leaving JMU at an inopportune time with their bowl game just weeks away. I think this Dukes team is just too good for it to be that big of a problem. Specifically, because they lead the country versus the run, a category AF has been very fortunate in in previous years facing teams that flat out can’t stop the run. Like Baylor in 2022, as AF was my best bet of the bowl season last year. I am all over the Dukes to ROLL in the Armed Forces bowl, with JMU QB Jordan McCloud and Sun-Belt Offensive Player of the Year leading us to victory! Multi-unit play for me, as well as my strongest play of the bowl season!
Play: JMU -1.5 (-110) to win 2.25u
3:30pm ET- Georgia St vs Utah St: We know how down I am on USU; it really did not matter who they faced in their bowl game I was betting against them, but GSU’s defense is BAD. The QB play on USU is also BAD. So, what outweighs each other? You need a QB to win these bowl games, year after year, bad QB play leads to losses. Levi Williams will be at the helm for USU, a by far run first pass second type of QB. I believe this bodes well for GSU, after showing disastrous efforts versus QB’s who can zing it all over the field. Between bad QB play for USU, combined with a defense that’s ranked practically last in every defensive category, is a combination for disaster. Georgia State HC Shawn Elliot has a knack for winning bowl games, going 3-1 in his tenure at GST, so let’s back him and senior QB/4-year starter Danny Grainger to score and score often in the Idaho Potato Bowl.
Play: USU +1.5 (-110) to win 0.9u
7:00pm ET- EMU vs So. Alabama: USA head coach Kane Wommack returned the Jags to bowl season last year after winning 10 games but were completely unprepared for WKU’s high flying offense. Well, he will look to get his revenge in the 2023 Ventures Bowl facing a MAC team who had to fight tooth and nail to even be bowl eligible. While EMU might bring extra effort most weeks, unfortunately they lack talent. Yes, I know I have said in the past, effort outweighs talent. I just don’t believe that applies to this game. Let’s not fail to mention USA has never won a bowl game in their program existence, these boys will be ready to roll Dec 23rd. Jags should dominate this affair from start to finish! ML and teasers should be a strong play here.
No Official Play here, besides the ML in a parlay.
7:30pm ET- Northwestern vs Utah: There is no doubt Northwestern played some good ball to end the 2023 season. Getting to 7 wins was way ahead of schedule this year, but I also believe they take a huge step up in class here in their bowl game. For those wondering who the QB will be for Utah on Dec 23rd? Bryson Barnes says, “he will not leave the program hanging.” Also, a chance for Barnes to show his progression in 2023, which was rocky at times. He has stated he will be leaving the Utah program after the bowl game, in other words: a tryout for his next school he will attend with two years of eligibility left. Between Barnes being a run first QB and a lethal run game, Northwestern could be in for a long day defensively in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Wildcats suffered severely when facing teams like Utah, ground and pound, then play solid physical defense! Utah HC Charlie Whittingham will outcoach NW HC David Braun in every way imaginable. When Charlie drops in class for a bowl game, he crushes. Lay the points with the Utes here.
Play: Utah -6.5 (-110) to win 1.25u
10:30pm ET- Coastal Carolina vs SJSU: I will not back many big favorites in bowl season (meaning lay a large number of points), but this Spartan team is a different animal. I was hoping for a “fairer” matchup you could say in their bowl game, hoping for a smaller line or even to be an underdog. As I believe this team could compete with many of the bigger schools this bowl season, but their matchup with the Chancellors is just not fair. They are leaps and bounds better than this team, then throw in QB Grayson McCall is out for the season. The Spartan defense and secondary is going to pounce on whatever QB CCU sends out on December 23rd in the Hawaii Bowl. These boys are fast, hit hard and are ball hawks, ranking 14th in pass yards, 31st in YPA and 33rd in INTs per game. Let’s not forget to mention this game is obviously in Hawaii. Playing ball in California compared to South Carolina will be much easier for the Cali boys transitioning to their time zone compared to a team coming from the east coast. SJSU lost as 9-point favorites and 4-point favorites in their previous two bowl games in 2020 and 2022, to MAC teams to boot. Revenge will be on HC Brent Brennan’s mind, as well as many of the players mind who got steamrolled last year versus EMU. This will be one of my best bets of the bowl season, SJSU by MANYYY!
Play: SJSU -9.5 (-110) to win 1.75u
Good luck to everyone tailing, let’s enjoy these games and make some money!
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Gasparilla Bowl: UCF vs Georgia Tech +5 O/U 66.5 Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida Time: 6:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Georgia Tech’s Motivation: High – They don’t make a lot of bowl games and this is a great opportunity to beat the Big 12.
UCF’s Motivation: Medium High – This team will be about business and close to home.
Home: UCF has a home field advantage being only 100 miles away.
Key guys missing:
UCF:
Starting CB Corey Thornton (667 snaps) is transferring.
C Drake Metcalf (213 snaps but lost job midway through season) is transferring.
S Jireh Wilson (447 snaps) didn’t play in finale, and fellow DB Braeden Marshall (257 snaps) left early with an injury
Georgia Tech:
Starting EDGE Kyle Kennard (534 snaps) is transferring.
Starting CB Kenan Johnson (521 snaps) is transferring.
Net YPP: UCF +1.25
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
UCF Offense
7.13 (6)
5.65 (5)
157.87 (17)
Georgia Tech Defense
6.29 (116)
5.41 (130)
134.03 (75)
Georgia Tech Offense
6.4 (28)
5.39 (9)
139.8 (55)
UCF Defense
5.77 (79)
4.84 (114)
120.33 (21)
Key Stats: UCF’s pass EPA is 30th in the nation. It would even be higher if John Rhys Plumblee didn’t miss games due to injury.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Gus Malzahn, UCF: 4-5
Verdict: Both offenses are good with UCF having the advantage, yet both defenses are trash. UCF is better in pretty much every facet of the game though against a rough Big 12 schedule, but was Georgia Tech’s schedule harder having to face some of the best teams in college football? We can’t ignore that Georgia Tech beat Miami, North Carolina and kept it very close with Louisville and Georgia. They step up when it comes to big competition. I have UCF by 3 points.
Play: Georgia Tech Lean but might play it late.
Saturday, Dec. 23
Birmingham Bowl: Duke vs Troy -7 O/U 44.5 Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, Alabama Time: 12 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Duke’s Motivation: Medium low – I think that Duke had higher aspirations this year and they also lost their coach.
Troy’s Motivation: Medium low – Nice to play a Power 5 but it’s Duke so not all that rewarding after winning the Sun Belt. Coach is leaving so that leaves a damper on some things.
Home: Troy gets home field being only 145 miles from Birmingham.
Key guys missing:
Troy:
Head coach Jon Sumrall has agreed to take the open head-coaching job at Tulane. Defensive coordinator Greg Gasparato will serve as the interim head coach for the bowl game, and Notre Dame offensive coordinator Gerad Parker will take over full-time following the bowl game.
Duke:
Mike Elko has left for Texas A&M. Associate head coach Trooper Taylor will serve as the interim head coach.
Starting QB Riley Leonard (I’d expect Grayson Loftis to start; played in seven games) is transferring.
Starting EDGE RJ Oben (404 snaps) is transferring.
Starting DL Aeneas Peebles (443 snaps) is transferring.
Starting LB Dorian Mausi (387 snaps) is transferring.
Starting DB/KR Jaylen Stinson (767 snaps) is transferring.
Starting RB Jordan Waters is transferring.
RB Jaquez Moore (102 carries) is transferring.
Starting C Scott Elliott didn’t play in the final few games (428 snaps) might still be injured.
S Terry Moore got hurt late in the season (391 snaps) might still be injured.
Duke starting DL DeWayne Carter earned a Senior Bowl invite and could sit out (548 snaps).
OT Graham Barton is opting out.
Net YPP: Troy +1.03
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Duke Offense
5.68 (72)
4.94 (25)
120.51 (105)
Troy Defense
4.74 (11)
3.1 (10)
123.04 (31)
Troy Offense
6.3 (33)
4.48 (52)
151.86 (25)
Duke Defense
5.15 (31)
3.93 (53)
123.02 (30)
Key Stats: Duke had the much harder SOS, but they are just missing a bunch of guys. Losing their coach is certainly a kick in the pants. Troy’s defense is the best unit on the field.
Coach Bowl ATS:
None
Verdict: I think that Troy can move the ball past a team with a bunch of defensive opt outs. Troy has the better defense and should be able to stop Duke on offense without their starting QBs and running back. The question is, how much is too much? I was about to bet Troy, but now that Coach Jon Sumrall took the Tulane Job, I am a little worried about motivation.
Play: Lean Troy -7
Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois vs Arkansas State -2.5 O/U 54.5 Location: Crampton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama Time: 12 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Arkansas State’s Motivation: Medium High – Arkansas State should want to take care of business. Butch Jones is 6-1 ATS in Bowl games.
Northern Illinois Motivation: Medium – Why not beat another group of 5 team?
Home: Slight advantage to Arkansas State yet still 400 miles away.
DL Kadan Lewis (not on bowl depth chart; 235 snaps)
Northern Illinois:
None but they did lose a few WRs to injury late in the season.
Net YPP: Northern Illinois +1.07
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Northern Illinois Offense
5.76 (63)
5.05 (20)
121.62 (102)
Arkansas State Defense
6.19 (114)
4.76 (110)
150.79 (121)
Arkansas State Offense
5.84 (57)
4.21 (77)
132.73 (70)
Northern Illinois Defense
5.04 (26)
4.22 (73)
114.35 (11)
Key Stats: NIU has a +6 Sack Margin while Arkansas State is -6. NIU number 15th in opponent passing success rate.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Butch Jones, Arkansas State: 6-1-1
Thomas Hammock, Northern Illinois: 1-0
Verdict: Northern Illinois and Arkansas State are basically at pickem in my numbers. The good news for the Huskies is they do get a good WR back from possible transfer. The numbers say that NIU should be able to run all over this team and stop the pass which is the one thing that Arkansas State does a heck of a lot. I lean NIU for sure, but will wait on the number.
Play: NIU if it gets to a 3 or better.
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. James Madison -1.5 O/U 40.5 Location: Amon G Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Air Force’s Motivation: High – They always want to win the Armed Forces Bowl while coach Calhoun is 8-4 ATS.
James Madison’s Motivation: High – First bowl game? Hell yes!
Home: None: both over 700 miles away.
Key Guys Missing:
James Madison:
DE Jalen Green (NFL prospect with 15.5 sacks) missed the final three games.
Starting LT Tyshawn Wyatt was lost for the season in Week 9, causing some offensive line re-shuffling.
Air Force:
Head coach Troy Calhoun said quarterback Zac Larrier could return for the bowl game.
He said the same for wide receivers Dane Kinamon (309 snaps) and Jared Roznos (207 snaps).
Starting CB Jerome Gaillard (340 snaps) missed the final four games.
Starting SPUR LB C.J. Boyd (260 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 7.
Net YPP: James Madison +.47
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Air Force Offense
5.78 (62)
5.04 (21)
148.84 (34)
James Madison Defense
4.89 (16)
2.09 (1)
125.77 (40)
James Madison Offense
6.28 (34)
4.02 (91)
163.62 (10)
Air Force Defense
4.85 (15)
3.13 (11)
129.33 (58)
Key Stats: James Madison ranks 5th in passing success rate and 15th in pass EPA. This is Air Force’s weakness on defense ranking 65th in opponent passing success rate.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Troy Calhoun, Air Force: 8-4
Verdict: Air force is amazing at running the ball and they do have a few passing tricks up their sleeve, but is this enough against the number 1 rushing defense in football? Probably not. James Madison should be able to pass the ball on this team like they did against almost everyone in the Sun Belt. I expect them to win this game even with Tory Calhoun’s amazing bowl record.
Play: James Madison -1.5
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State vs Georgia State +1.5 O/U 59.5 Location: Albertson’s Stadium, Boise, Idaho Time: 3:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Utah State’s Motivation: Medium Low – This is not a rewarding place to play. It’s almost like a prison sentence playing at a place you travel to every other year.
Georgia State’s Motivation: Medium Low – They will be on a business trip until they actually land in Boise. Then they will want to leave.
Home: Utah State is only 293 miles away but let’s just home the fans show up. 2 points max.
Key Guys Missing:
Utah State:
CB Avante Dickerson (423 snaps) didn’t play in the regular-season finale.
Georgia State:
Stud starting RB Marcus Carroll (719 snaps) is transferring.
Backup RB KZ Adams (82 snaps) is transferring.
Top WR Robert Lewis (759 snaps) is transferring.
Starting RT Montavious Cunningham (743 snaps) is transferring.
Starting CB Bryquice Brown (566 snaps) is transferring.
Net YPP: Utah State +1.47
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Utah State Offense
6.17 (40)
4.83 (32)
144.73 (44)
Georgia State Defense
6.36 (120)
4.24 (75)
154.76 (128)
Georgia State Offense
5.53 (78)
4.44 (57)
137.57 (64)
Utah State Defense
5.53 (66)
4.79 (112)
125.91 (42)
Key Stats: Georgia State ranks 117th in opponent passing success rate. Not good.
Bowl Coach ATS:
Shawn Elliot, Georgia State: 3-1
Blake Anderson, Utah State: 3-5
Verdict: The only advantage that I see for Georgia State is sack margin, but that is because Utah State throws the ball a lot. Utah State should be able to move the ball at will here with a huge net yards per play advantage. Take Utah State who also has been to Boise.
Play: Utah State -1.5
68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. South Alabama -17 O/U 44.5 Location: Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, Alabama Time: 7 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Eastern Michigan’s Motivation: Medium High – Chris Creighton is 4-1 ATS in bowl games and he is a massive dog here. Great location as well.
South Alabama’s Motivation: Medium – This program has been on the rise over the past few years.
Home: This is LITERALLY a home game for South Alabama. There will be a few Eastern Michigan fans there though on vacation.
Key Guys Missing:
Eastern Michigan:
Starting QB Austin Smith to transfer. Ike Udengwu III would start if Smith doesn’t play. Udengwu is more of a runner who came in for certain run packages during the year and even started a game.
Starting EDGE Mikah Coleman (445 snaps) to transfer.
DL Alex Merritt (281 snaps) to transfer.
Starting OG Zack Conti (624 snaps) to transfer.
South Alabama:
Top WR Caullin Lacy (91 catches, 1,300-plus yards) to transfer.
Star RB La’Damian Webb is opting out.
Starting LT Jordan Davis (513 snaps) missed the finale with an injury.
Net YPP: South Alabama +2.02
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Eastern Michigan Offense
4.5 (129)
3.43 (115)
109.1 (123)
South Alabama Defense
5.22 (39)
3.27 (18)
138.41 (85)
South Alabama Offense
6.18 (39)
4.44 (58)
151.59 (26)
Eastern Michigan Defense
5.56 (68)
4.48 (90)
125.56 (40)
Key Stats: USA is 17th in EPA margin while EMU is 95th.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Kane Wommack, South Alabama: 0-1
Chris Creighton, Eastern Michigan: 4-1
Verdict: This is the 2nd largest spread in bowl season and it could end up the largest if some guys from Oregon opt out of the Fiesta bowl. The scariest thing about this is that Chris Creighton is like 1 Billion – 3 ATS as a double digit dog. Just in saying that, I think there is value on EMU. They play slow and bait the other team into mistakes. Hold your nose and play the Eagles if Austin Smith plays.
Play: EMU +17 small but no rush
Las Vegas Bowl: Utah vs Northwestern +6.5 O/U 41.5 Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada Time: 7:30 p.m. TV Channel: ABC
Utah’s Motivation: Medium – This team had higher expectations but this is still a cool place to play.
Northwestern’s Motivation:Medium High – What a great bowl ending a great season overcoming expectations for the Wildcats. David Braun will have them fired up.
Home: None – Utah is closer but both teams will show.
Key Guys Missing:
Utah:
QB Nate Johnson (expected to enter transfer portal) – QB Bryson Barns will however play if Nate doesn’t.
WR Mikey Matthews (345 snaps) to transfer.
CB JaTravis Broughton (434 snaps) to transfer.
WR Devaughn Vele (669 snaps) is opting out.
Utah lost two important defensive starters earlier this season to injury in LB Lander Barton and EDGE Logan Fano.
Northwestern:
None
Net YPP: Utah +.49
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Utah Offense
5.23 (99)
4.37 (67)
123.09 (97)
Northwestern Defense
5.29 (47)
4.23 (74)
129.11 (56)
Northwestern Offense
4.71 (124)
2.95 (126)
132.02 (74)
Utah Defense
5.32 (49)
3.22 (15)
126.08 (45)
Key Stats: Utah has had the harder SOS ranking 8th compared to Northwestern’s 59th on Sagarin.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Kyle Whittingham, Utah: 10-6
Verdict: Utah has a very solid defense, but their offense certainly leaves much to the imagination. Really rough finish to the season losing to Washington, Arizona and beating a bad Colorado team at home by 6. NU had the much better finish winning three games in a a row. I don’t see how the Ute’s can get margin here and the Wildcats will be very motivated. Take the Cats.
Play: Northwestern +6.5
Hawai’i Bowl: Coastal Carolina vs San Jose State -9.5 O/U 49.5 Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletic Complex, Honolulu, Hawai’i Time: 10:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Coastal Carolina’s Motivation: Low – Great destination and I doubt that these kids ever get to Hawaii that often.
San Jose State’s Motivation: High – This team will be on a business trip and they go here every other year. They should want to win this game and show that they are the true MW Champs.
Home: None – I think both fans should travel.
Key Guys Missing:
Coastal Carolina:
QB Grayson McCall (471 snaps) to transfer.
Starting WR Jared Brown (507 snaps) to transfer.
RB CJ Beasley (246 snaps) to transfer.
Starting LB JT Killen (563 snaps) to transfer.
There’s a chance some still play in the bowl, per reports.
Starting nickelback Juan Powell (545 snaps) missed the final two games.
San Jose State:
Stud starting LT Fernando Carmona (765 snaps)
Stud starting TE Dominick Mazotti (518 snaps)
Net YPP: SJSU +.38
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Coastal Carolina Offense
6.33 (32)
4.41 (61)
152.06 (23)
San Jose State Defense
5.51 (60)
4.65 (101)
126.05 (44)
San Jose State Offense
6.5 (23)
5.53 (7)
143.07 (46)
Coastal Carolina Defense
5.71 (77)
4.63 (98)
126.91 (47)
Key Stats: There is no more key than Grayson McCall missing this game. He is their only shot in keeping it close. SJSU is number 3 in Rush EPA while Coastal is number 101 on defensive rush EPA.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Brent Brennan, San Jose State: 0-2
Verdict: I think that without Grayson McCall, Coastal has no chance. SJSU has improved greatly and will want to prove that they are the team that should have won the Mountain West. They should be able to run all over Coastal especially if their linebacker is out. My issue is that backup QB Jarrett Guest did ok vs Marshall and Army.
Play: Lean SJSU
Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl: Bowling Green vs. Minnesota -3.5 O/U 39.5 Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan Time: 2 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Bowling Green’s Motivation: High – Not a great destination but still a good opponent to try and beat.
Minnesota’s Motivation: Low – Ugly opponent to face and a bad destination.
Home: Bowling Green is only 80 miles away. Not sure how many Gophers will show up.
Key Guys Missing:
Bowling Green:
Stud CB Jalen Huskey (624 snaps; first-team All MAC) to transfer.
RB Ta’ron Keith (373 snaps and leading receiver) to transfer.
Starting S Trent Simms (418 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 10 could still be injured.
Minnesota:
Starting QB Athan Kaliakmanis (773 snaps) to transfer.
Backup QB Drew Viotto to tranfer. Assuming QB Cole Kramer (6 snaps) will start
Monitor the status of Minnesota RB Darius Taylor (183 snaps).
Starters S Darius Green (499 snaps) and LB Maverick Baranowski (372 snaps) missed the finale, but LB Cody Lindenberg did return.
Keep an eye on future pro S Tyler Nubin (768 snaps) who I’d imagine will sit out.
Net YPP: Bowling Green +1.1
Basic Stats:
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Minnesota Offense
4.8 (120)
3.89 (95)
113.71 (120)
Bowling Green Defense
5.28 (44)
3.87 (47)
129.29 (57)
Bowling Green Offense
5.4 (84)
4.18 (81)
126.55 (91)
Minnesota Defense
6.01 (96)
4.72 (107)
139.52 (89)
Key Stats: Minnesota’s SOS is much higher at 49th to Bowling Green’s 110th.
Verdict: Bowling Green plays in the MAC while Minnesota plays in the Big 10 so SOS does matter. The Gophers are on their 3rd string QB in senior Cole Kramer, but I do not think that he is any good at all. In saying that, Minnesota should find success running the football against a team ranking 110th in opponent rushing success rate. The Gopher’s only highlight of the year was beating Iowa in a very ugly game. Both teams play very slow and I see some value here past the three to the Falcons in an ugly game.
Play: Bowling Green +3.5
First Responder Bowl: Rice vs Texas State -6 O/U 59.5 Location: General J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, Texas Time: 5:30 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
Texas State’s Motivation: High – Playing an in state rival.
Rice’s Motivation: High – Playing an in state rival.
Home: None as both teams are about 245 miles from Dallas.
Key Guys Missing:
Texas State
Offensive starters LG Dorion Strawn (727 snaps) and WR Joey Hobert (579 snaps) didn’t dress for the finale.
DE Chance Main (285 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 11 and may still be injured.
Rice:
QB JT Daniels has medically retired. AJ Padgett will likely start at quarterback.
Starting LB Chris Conti (359 snaps) hasn’t played since Week 9.
Net YPP: Texas State +.18
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
Texas State Offense
6.37 (29)
4.68 (36)
154.07 (21)
Rice Defense
5.61 (69)
4.17 (65)
134.49 (78)
Rice Offense
5.94 (49)
3.79 (102)
146.1 (42)
Texas State Defense
5.86 (89)
4.11 (61)
148.72 (116)
Key Stats: Both teams turn the ball over frequently. TO margin is -8 for Texas State and -7 for Rice.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Mike Bloomgren, Rice: 0-1
Verdict: JT Daniels is done with football and Freshman AJ Padgett should get the nod here. He has actually done ok this year at a 63.5 completion percentage. I feel like this spread is a bit high even with the backup in but I am not quite ready to fire just yet. Strong lean.
Play: Lean Rice +6
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV vs Kansas -13 O/U 64.5 Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona Time: 9 p.m. TV Channel: ESPN
UNLV’s Motivation: High – Get to play a power 5 team is always nice.
Kansas’s Motivation: Medium – Not a great opponent but we shall see because Lance Leipold is 5-1 ATS in bowl games.
Home: UNLV is only 300 miles away so I think they show up. 1 point advantage.
Key Guys Missing:
Kansas:
Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has taken the OC job at Penn State.
Starting RT Bryce Cabeldue (688 snaps) missed the final regular-season game.
Starting OG Michael Ford Jr. (698 snaps) left the finale with an injury.
UNLV:
S Cameren Jenkins (381 snaps) to transfer.
RB Courtney Reese (209 snaps) to transfer.
Starting S Jett Elad (578 snaps) didn’t play in the conference championship game due to injury.
Net YPP: Kansas +1.27
Basic Stats:
Both teams
Yard /Play
Yard per Rush
QBR
UNLV Offense
6.11 (44)
4.54 (46)
138.23 (60)
Kansas Defense
5.7 (74)
4.48 (89)
132.58 (69)
Kansas Offense
7.01 (8)
5.51 (8)
158.61 (16)
UNLV Defense
6.07 (103)
4.33 (81)
141.42 (98)
Key Stats: Kansas’s strength of schedule is much harder at 21st compared to UNLV’s at 91st.
Coach Bowl ATS:
Lance Leipold, Kansas: 5-1
Barry Odom, UNLV: 0-2
Verdict: Don’t be fooled by UNLV’s darling season. This team should struggle against an amazing coach like Lance Leopold. Kansas ranks 24th in offensive explosiveness while UNLV ranks 115th in allowing explosive plays on defense. I would like more info on Kansas’s injuries, but I am ok with firing on this below 14 points.
Well, we are 10 bowl games into bowl season and as usual we have seen drama, excitement, some bad beats, players deciding “last second” not to play and much, much more! Here’s our updated numbers so far in the 2023-24 Bowl Season! All plays posted here or Twitter (X).
ATS: 5-1, +4.6 units
Totals: 0-1, -1.1u units
Money Lines: 1-2, 0.00 units
Parlays: 1-1, +1.05 units
Live: 1-0, +0.25 units
Total: 8-5, +4.8 units
Friday, December 22nd
6:30pm ET- Georgia Tech vs UCF: The Yellow Jackets got bowl eligible in a season one was not expecting. With quality wins vs Mia FL, UNC, and Virginia. Two of the three as double-digit dogs. Scoring points was not a problem for 1st year head coach Brent Key who ironically was on the UCF coaching staff from 2005-2015. Needless to say, he’s going to want to ball out versus his former team. Bringing in Texas A+M transfer QB Haynes King proved to be the right move. Throwing for over 2700 yards and 26 TD’s, while running for over 600 yards and 9 TDs on the ground. This team can score, eclipsing 40 points 3x this season, 30 points 6x and 20+ in all 12 games. Now get to face a UCF defense who struggled mightily stopping the run in 2023 facing some tough Big 12 teams. Facing Guz Malzahn, who has not fared well in bowl games in his career going 3-6 might be the perfect match-up for the Jackets. UCF will get their yards and score their points, but I don’t believe it will be enough! GT pulls the upset and gets their 1st bowl win since 2016 in Tampa and wins the Gasparilla Bowl.
Georgia Tech +5.5 (-110) to win 1.2 units
Georgia Tech ML +165 risk 0.3 units
I have a GIGANTIC article for Saturday, December 23rd ready to go for you guys. I will post it tomorrow night or Saturday morning. It will personally be one of my biggest days of the year for myself.
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We have a VERY MERRY show for you today! Andy Molitor @AndyMSFW from The Deep Dive podcast and from Bet-sperts is back to break down a huge week of football! First, Kiev gets into all of the bowl games with a quick handicap on each game through next week Tuesday with some FREE PLAYS! Next, Andy comes on and the guys get right into some of the future’s that still are alive from their show earlier in the year. Then, Andy and Kiev get into the full slate of NFL games with some more plays. After that, Kiev gives out his refuse to lose teaser that is 11-4 for the season. Finally, we get into some College and NFL sharp money movement. Should you have any questions for the podcast for Monday, or games that you want us to cap during our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful weekend!
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On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, @props_kitchen and I break down the games on December 21st and offer our best bets.
Topics:
[0:00-1:59] Introduction
[2:00-5:02] 3 Stars of the Week
[5:03-10:24] Penalty Box
[10:25-17:28] Nashville Predators @ Philadelphia Flyers
