We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college and NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the good, the bad and the ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 13! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We’ve got a LOADED CBB slate to start the week; as such, I have 4 plays locked and loaded. As a reminder, I keep all of my plays 0.5u early in the season before ramping it up in January-February.
*CBB(0.5u): Grand Canyon/Wichita State UNDER 125.5–2 PM CT
Each of these teams runs at a bottom 50 pace in the country, and neither offense ranks inside the Top 125 in efficiency according to KenPom. Neither team shoots better than 31% from beyond the arc(Wichita State is shooting an abysmal 22.6% from 3), and both teams struggle to make their foul shots.
For as bearish as I am on the Wichita State program, you can’t ignore the way they’ve come out of the gates on the defensive end. Last Thursday, they held a formidable offense in Richmond to just 53. GCU, on the other hand, held Nevada to just 59 and mopped the floor defensively with some teams you’d expect them to.
With the lack of shot-making and snails pace, this is a “first to 60 wins” game. Each offense is also poor enough to lag behind in the low 50’s, making the Under the right call.
*CBB(0.5u): Tulane -3.5 vs Nevada–4 PM CT
Tulane has come out of the gates hot, averaging just short of 90 PPG through 3 games. It’s easy to back Tulane given their efficiency from the floor, but also because they rank 5th in CBB in Free Throw%. This is one of the most experienced teams in CBB that has played A LOT of basketball together, and you’ve seen that work to their benefit early in the year.
Nevada barely cracks out the Top 100 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom, and their offense isn’t too impressive either; they struggled to reach 60 against both Grand Canyon and Texas Arlington. Defense isn’t the calling card of this Tulane team, but they’re solid enough to hold the Wolfpack down. Over the course of the 40 minutes, I think Nevada’s lack of playmaking offensively takes them out this game.
*CBB(0.5u): St John’s -3.5 vs Temple–8:30 PM CT
We know one thing about St John’s: They want to run and run a lot. The Johnnies rank 5th in the country in pace and have paired that with an over 50% FG percentage to start the season. Additionally, St John’s is better on the defensive end of the floor than given credit for, ranking top 50 in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
I imagine there will be a lot of love for Temple given we have seen them beat Villanova and Rutgers early in the season. In my opinion, what they do against slower-paced and/or defensive-minded teams tells me little as to how they’ll fare against the Johnnies. This is still a team that ranks 121st in defensive efficiency; in my opinion, this is a great “sell high” spot on Temple after their hot(but maybe not sustainable start).
I like the Johnnies to take care of business at Barclays tonight.
*CBB(0.5u): Arizona TT OVER 84 vs Cincinnati–10:30 PM CT
Arizona ranks 1st in all of College Basketball in pace and is scoring over 105 PPG this season. While this is clearly their toughest matchup of the season, that doesn’t mean Cincinnati is equipped to stop this Arizona high flying attack. Arizona was high flying for much of last season but was given trouble when a similarly good defense got stops and slowed the tempo down. Cincinnati is not “bad” defensively, but 61st in defensive efficiency is just not going to be enough to hold the Wildcats down for 40 minutes.
If you’re a premium NFL customer, you just experienced one of our best weekends yet. Heading into MNF, we’re 11-5 for +9.47 units in Week 11. We also hit our teaser of the week (for 3 units) and our parlay of the week (for 3.36 units), bringing us to nearly +16 units just in NFL profit this weekend. Wooo!
NBA premiums are still riding high too– we’re 8-2-1 the last 5 days. We were also + units in CFB and UFC this weekend! LFG!
I don’t see a ton of value in the NBA today – most lines are right – but we found a few plays we like. Let’s keep the DUBS coming!
Celtics Team Total over 117.5 (even), to win 1 unit
Celtic/Bulls 1H over 116.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Celtics are playing at a different level right now. Still the best offense in November and still running at a faster pace then we’ve seen in awhile, Boston has been unbeatable the last few weeks. No but, literally. They’ve won NINE games in a row! I think the line (Celtics -6) is right so I don’t want to play on that– Chicago is at home off 3 days of rest, after all– I’m just not convinced that the Bulls can stymie Boston’s offense for a second. When they do play better defensively it’s usually in the 3rd QTR, so I’m playing on the first half total going over and Boston’s team total going over. The Bulls are 28th in opponent 3-point percentage, which will probably be their achilles heel tonight. If you can’t stop Boston’s three point shooting and then corresponding space they create from it, you’re done.
Bucks 1Q -3 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Blazers Team Total under 103.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Bucks are in a beautiful spot off a loss in Philly, finally back home and off 3 days of rest. The Blazers are on the first leg of a 5-game road trip Monday and they’re coming into it injured. Lillard is out, and even though his supporting cash (Grant, Nurkic, etc.) has proven their worth, I don’t think they’ll be able to match Milwaukee’s energy at home. The Bucks own the #1 defense in the NBA when they’re on their home floor and they run with more pace. They’re also top 5 in offensive rebounding at home, an area that could prove catastrophic to opponent’s trying to keep up. Healthier than at most junctures this season, this feels like a smash-spot for the Bucks; I just like them better early. Full game, I don’t think Portland can score over 100 points against Milwaukee without Lillard.
We got two plays in both the UFC and NBA that we like today, but you can bet your ass I’m not betting on anything other than the NFL tomorrow. Let’s get to it:
NBA Picks: (56-43-2, 55%, +10.93 units):
Hawks -5.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Raptors are continuously injured, while the Hawks are completely healthy and off a tough (and rare) home loss to the Celtics. Boston’s playing at a different level right now but the Hawks can out-run Toronto and play their kind of offense against a less lengthy and less able Raptors roster without a few of their key stars (Siakam, Boucher, Gary Trent Jr). I like the Hawks to win by some margin here– the spot is ideal.
Timberwolves -2 (-110), to win 1 unit
I think this could be a game where the 76ers rest or straight up sit Embiid throughout the contest after a stellar performance and big W for the 76ers last night. Philly’s defense has been superb but lately we’re seeing some more chemistry in Minnesota. Anthony Edwards has been vocal about the spacing issues and how “everyone’s in the paint,” but they seem to have figured it out lately. Both Russell and Edwards had big games in their last two contests and it led to wins. They’re facilitating each other better (a top 6 team in assist ratio their last give games) and I think Gobert and Towns are figuring it out. I lean towards the over since I think the T-Wolves will set the pace but I like the away team better at a short line. The market is telling us who they expect to win.
UFC Picks:
Derrick Lewis (+170), to win 1.7 units
Parlay: Kennedy Nzechukwu + Waldo Cortes-Acosta both win (2 units to win 2.5 units)
The time has come and the devil is calling TCU to pay their dues. Hey, I like TCU and what they have accomplished, but this is college football and Baylor is a very solid team with a great defensive minded coach. It is true that TCU has been quite fortunate in their schedules playing against some injured quarterbacks, but this isn’t the main part of this handicap. What I like about Baylor here is that they are the defending Big 12 champions, and they have a shot to be back in the Big 12 championship game. They also have a decent passing defense ranking 40th in yards per attempt to TCU’s 52nd. Baylor’s defense ranks 36th in yards per play to TCU’s 54th. The way to beat TCU is to control the clock, and Dave Aranda knows this. It is clear that TCU has the better offense, but that doesn’t always show up as we know on the road, and Baylor has the coaching and the D to make a difference here. Another intangible part of this handicap is that TCU beat Baylor by two points last year which kept them out of the college football playoffs. They may want some revenge for that. I have TCU 2 points better on a neutral so being a 2.5 point favorite on the road doesn’t add up.
Baylor +2.5 – 2 stars
Indiana vs Michigan State -10.5 O/U 47.5
One of the most annoying coaches in the Big 10 is definitely Tom Allen. He screams at refs and is actually wrong about it a good percentage of the time. In saying that, you also have to feel sorry for him going against the Big 10 East which is almost impossible to remain successful against such strength. Anyways, this disappointing Indiana team now gets to face a defense that ranks 106th in opponent success rate and 121st in success rate against the pass. For as bad as Indiana is, they rank number five in passing attempts at a huge 58% of all plays. Michigan State should also have success moving the ball against Indiana where the Hoosier’s rank 128th in defensive success rate against the pass. Indiana moves the ball fast ranking number 1 in all of college football in Tempo.
Over 47.5 – 2.5 stars
Bonus Play: Texas Tech vs Iowa State under 47.5 – 2 stars – Iowa State is only allowing 16.7 points per game at home. Texas Tech just has an average offense at best and the weather will be freezing today.
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 7-3 in the high participant Double-Ups. Our lineup was a solid easy winner in the double-ups last week thanks to Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley and Christian Kirk. Our headliner JuJu didn’t get that good JuJu we were hoping, but our pocketbooks did.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 11-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Dak Prescott, QB: $6,600. Dak has 6 Total Touchdowns the last two weeks, and this Cowboys offense is really starting to click. The Vikings are still allowing the 4th most passing yards per attempt this season. With Zeke still slightly banged up, I don’t think the Cowboys will lean totally on Pollard and the running game. The Cowboys are favored for a reason here. Mike McCarthy still knows how to get the most out of his offenses, and this total is now the 4th highest on the board this week with the Bills/Browns moving to Detroit, so Vegas thinks there’s points to be had.
Dalvin Cook, RB: $8,000. On the other side of the coin we have Dalvin going up against a Dallas defense giving up the 4th most rushing yards at over 143 yards per game. Cook has only gone over 20 touches three times this season, but I think he gets there again this game. He’s also found the end-zone in 5 of his last 6.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB: $5,300. Robinson got the rock 26 times to Antonio Gibson’s 14 carries in week 10. I expect the Commanders to be a heavy ground team again facing the NFL’s worst rushing defense in the Titans who are giving up over 181 yards per game. Fun Stat of the Day you wouldn’t think is true with the Commanders playing so well since he took over. Taylor Heinecke is 37th out of 37 ranked QBs on QBRinger. They are winning because of the running game and defense.
Stefon Diggs, WR: $8,300. It’s been a week of indecision and uncertainty regarding this contest. Now that it’s inside in the dome in Detroit, look for the Bills to try and put together some big time explosive plays. Diggs is always the primary target and had 16 of them last week. The Browns will try and play ball control keeping the rock out of the Bills hands. However, he Dolphins laid the ground work for beating the Browns and the NFL is a copycat league. I’m looking for the Bills to put up at least 30 in this one.
Ceedee Lamb, WR: $7,500. This is your stack with Dak to try and double up some points. Dak really zone in on him last week as he torched the Packers for 11 catches, 150 yards and 2 scores.
Nico Collins, WR: $4,100. The Texans will certainly try and pass the ball in this one with the Redskins 2nd in DVOA against the run. While Mills hasn’t been accurate, he has looked for Collins plenty especially last week with 10 targets. Am I crazy about Collins? No, but a ten target potential at this price is solid. I also think Brandin Cooks and much of this team has mailed it in. Mills and Collins haven’t. I’ll take a shot here.
Tyler Conklin, TE: $3,400. 5 Different Tight Ends have scored this season against the Pats And Conklin scored twice and hauled in 6 catches for 79 yards and 2 scores in the last showdown with the Pats. You’d think the Patriots would be sure not to let Conklin jump on them again, but they will likely work to contain the Wilson to Wilson deep threat more. With some Tight End injuries though this looks like a value.
Van Jefferson, Flex: $4,500. With Cooper Kupp out who does Stafford lean on to pick up some slack and try and move the ball? Allen Robinson is the likely candidate, but he will likely be heavily covered in this one. I’m looking for Jefferson to get 6-8 targets in this one to help out. Maybe he can find the end-zone also.
Pittsburgh, DEF: $2,300. T.J. Watt is back. The Steelers D just held the Saints to 10 points, and they forced the Saints to make quick short throws all game to avoid pressure. The Bengals are still missing Chase. This Bengals team follows a M.O. that’s very simple. If they play a team that can get pressure they struggle. If Burrow has time they feast. Cowboys, Ravens, Browns and this same Steelers team all got to Burrow, and the Bengals lost every game. The Steelers sacked Burrow 7 times and picked him 4 times in Week 1. I see the Bengals struggling this week.
We’re officially in the black in CFB! One hell of a turnaround, eh?! Let’s keep it rollin’
CFB Week 12 Picks (44-39-7, +1.35 units):
Illinois 1H +10 (-110), to win 1 unit
Let-down spot for Michigan with Ohio State on deck. I’m not sure if the Wolverines will be as crisp early, and the Illini should be super motivated to try and dethrone the undefeated home team. Illinois can run the ball and take away some clock. Like the first half to be close.
TCU -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
TCU has been here before and they keep taking care of business in tough road spots. I’m going to trust that– they’re too close to finishing this season undefeated to blow it now. Also Iowa State is NOT a lookahead game.
Appalachian State -16 (-110), to win 1 unit
Perfect smash spot for App State at home, where they usually play their best football, in a response game after that frustrating loss at Marshall.
Same Game 6 pt. Teaser: Iowa to +8.5, Total under 38
Yes, this will be low scoring. Yes, Iowa will find a way to keep it close. No, I don’t trust that randomness will help us in an end-of-game spot when they’re a dog of less than a field goal.
USC/UCLA over 76 (-110), to win 2 units
UCLA allows opposing QBs to throw 67% this season and that was against competition like Arizona State, Utah (run first team), Oregon, Arizona, and South Alabama. USC’s Caleb Williams averages 60% completion % against top 25 teams and throws for over 3 TDs a game. The dude is a true Heisman contender and he leads one of the most prolific offenses in the country. Meanwhile, USC allows 4.5 yards per rush, barely a top 100 team in run defense, while UCLA’s 6.3 yards per carry is 1st in the nation. And they run for 240 yards per game, top 10 in that category. USC has allowed teams like Stanford, CAL and AZ to put up points on ’em, and I don’t see any way that UCLA can hold down the USC attack. OVER!
