Both Saints and Panthers against each other might be a little flat after blowing their chances last week.
Get Up Spots:
Jets can play Spoiler to Miami making the playoffs.
Rams can play spoiler to the Seahawks playoff chances.
Browns can play spoiler to Pittsburgh Making the Playoffs.
Raiders can ruin the top 2 seed for the Chiefs (maybe)
Bears can solidify Vikings 3rd spot in the playoffs.
The Cardinals could cost the 49ers a seed.
The Lions can spoil the Packers if and only if Seattle wins.
Look Ahead Spots:
Vikings may not play starters next week vs Bears.
The Giants can’t improve or lose their 6 seed at all vs the Eagles.
The Cowboys can’t improve their 5 seed when the Eagles are blowing out the Giants at the half.
Tampa won’t play much starters vs the Falcons.
Ravens may not be motivated to beat the Bengals if they beat the Bills, but it is John Harbaugh so there’s that.
The Chargers can’t really improve their wildcard seed much vs the Broncos, but they can lose their nice 5 seed if the Ravens beat Cincinnati. Do they care and want to avoid Cinci or Buffalo in the 1st round?
The 2023 PGA Tour season is underway with the Sentry Tournament of Champions. By no means is this a major tournament but it is a big event. This invite-only event is reserved for players who have won a tournament on Tour since the previous year’s edition or received an exemption.
This year’s field features 39 players including seventeen of the top twenty in the Official World Golf Ranking. They’ve expanded the field from last year’s event to include several non-winners.
There are several storylines coming into this year’s event and it starts with Will Zalatoris who’s making his first start since withdrawing from the BMW Championship. He’ll also be making his debut here along with Tom Kim, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Sahith Theegala, Ryan Brehm, Luke List, Trey Mullinax, Chad Ramey, J.J. Spaun, Sepp Straka, and Adam Svensson.
Rory McIlroy, the current No. 1 golfer in the world is the lone invitee to have declined his invitation to this event. Scottie Scheffler, the current No. 2 player in the world is the highest-ranked player in this event. Jon Rahm who started off as the No. 1 golfer in the world last year, currently sits in 5th and is hoping for a rebound season after only winning the Mexico Open.
This is always a fun event to watch and features plenty of birdies with a gorgeous Hawaii backdrop. Now let’s break down the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions as we look to start the year off on a good note!
The tournament was originally founded in 1953 and was previously restricted to golfers who had won a tournament on tour during the previous calendar year. However, this year will feature an increased field with several other top players earning exemptions.
The Sentry Tournament of Champions has been held during the first week of January since 1999. It was that year that the event was moved to its current location at the Kapalua Resort.
This event has undergone several different title sponsors and venues in addition to format changes. From 2012-2015 it used a Friday-Monday format to not compete against the NFL schedule.
The 2023 edition will feature its largest prize pool ever and will increase the winner’s share to $2.7 Million from last year’s $1.476 Million. In addition to the major increase in money, the FedEx Cup Points offered have also jumped up to 550.
Jack Nicklaus holds the record for the most wins at this event with 5 (1963, 2964, 1971, 1973, and 1977).
72-Hole Record: 258, Cameron Smith (2022)
18-Hole Record: 61, J. Rahm (3rd Rd, ’22), J. Thomas (3rd Rd, ’22), M. Jones (4th Rd, ’22)
Course Guide/ Scorecard:
The Plantation Course at Kapalua is arguably one of the most gorgeous tracks on the PGA Tour. It sits on the shores of Maui offering stunning views from most holes.
That being said, it’s also one of the easiest courses on Tour as seen by the previous year’s scoring averages. This event is what most touts like to call a “birdie-fest” as the winning scores have all been around -20 or below. The only outlier came back in 2020 when Justin Thomas won this tournament with a -14. In 2020, the winds did play more of a factor than what we’re supposed to see this weekend, so I’m betting we see a winning score around what we’re used to.
The Plantation Course is the only Par 73 we’ll see on Tour all year and is a bomber’s paradise playing roughly 7,600 yards. The course features 5 Par 5’s all of which play over 525 yards with the 18th playing an astounding 677 yards. Despite this being one of the longer courses on tour, the elevation does have to be accounted for as the 18th is still reachable in two for some players.
The main defense of the course is the winds, as it sits on the coastline but, also the elevation changes. This course has the largest amount of elevation changes on Tour which can cause blind approach shots.
During the 2019/2020 renovation, the course underwent a complete renovation affecting every aspect of it. The tee boxes were moved back, bunkers were repositioned, and most greens were re-contoured. Despite all these changes to make the course more difficult, the past two winners have finished at -25 and -34.
Featured/ Signature Hole(s): 18
For a hole-by-hole overview of the course, you can click the following link.
Key Statistics:
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Distance
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)
Par 5 Scoring
Proximity: 200-225 Yards
Comparable Courses and Event History
The Field/ Odds:
39 Players will compete in the Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua this week. 17 of the world’s top 20 players will be in the field.
Jon Rahm (+650), has played twice on Tour this season finishing T4 at the CJ Cup and T8 at the Hero World Challenge. He’s also had success overseas recently winning the DP World Tour Championship and Spanish Open. Rahm has finished inside the top 10 in each of his five starts at Kapalua.
Scottie Scheffler (+900), is coming off a second-place finish at the Hero World Challenge. In his three other starts on Tour this year he’s finished T45, T3, and T9. This will be his second time here at Kapalua finishing T13 back in 2021.
Patrick Cantlay (+1000), has only played once since the TOUR Championship finishing T2 at the Shriners Children’s Open. He’s played in this event four times before placing T15, 4th, T13, and 4th.
Xander Schauffele (+1000), has had a great start to the season finishing inside the top 10 in both of his starts. He’s finished inside the top 10 in each of his past four events including the two this year. Xander won this event back in 2019 and has since placed T2, T5, and 12th.
Justin Thomas (+1100), finished 5th at the Hero World Challenge in his last start on Tour. He’s won the Sentry Tournament of Champions twice before in 2017 and 2020.
Previous Winners in the field: Justin Thomas (’20, ’17), Xander Schauffele (’19), Jordan Spieth (’16)
Notable Withdraws: Rory McIlroy
To see the most up-to-date odds, you can click the following link.
To see the full field for this event, you can click the following link.
Horses for Courses:
Sungjae Im: T5/ T8
Collin Morikawa: T7/ T7/ T5
Jon Rahm: 2/ T8/ 10/ T7/ 2
Justin Thomas: T21/ 1/ T22/ 3/ 1/ 3/ T5
Xander Schauffele: T22/ 1/ T2/ T5/ 12
Donkeys for Courses:
“Horses for Courses” is a phrase that is widely used and describes the best course/tournament fits. These are the players that have had success at the particular course/event. “Donkeys for Courses” is something I came up with that highlights the players who have struggled at a particular course/tournament.
Mackenzie Hughes: T25/ T41
Viktor Hovland: T31/ T30
Previous Winners Scores & Prices:
2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
Price: 28-1
2021: Harris English (-25)
Price: 33-1
2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
Price: 11-2
2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
Price: 22-1
2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
Price: 15-2
Picks (Outrights):
Justin Thomas (+1100) – DraftKings
Risk: 0.73 to win 8.03 Units
Cameron Young (+2200) – BetMGM
Risk: 0.37 to win 8.14 Units
Total Risk on Outrights: 1.10 Units
Picks (Top 10):
Sungjae Im (+130) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.30 Units
Sungjae’s coming off a T8 finish at the Hero World Challenge gaining 1.80 strokes over the field. Im also has some great course history here finishing T5 and T8 in his two appearances at Kapalua. He gained strokes on approach in both of those events which is the one part of his game he has struggled with. He’s also been trending upward in that category gaining strokes on approach in two of his last three events. Sungaje struggled on the greens in his debut but managed to gain 0.71 strokes on the green in his second appearance. He fits this course extremely well and when you combine his recent form and course history, it’s hard to not think he’ll have success again here.
Collin Morikawa (+140) – DraftKings
Risk: 1.00 to win 1.40 Units
Morikawa had a down year last season but has shown he’s back in action finishing T15 and 6th in his last two starts on Tour. He’s played well at Kapalua in this past with three top-10 finishes. His stellar ball-striking has allowed him to succeed here in the past and given his recent form, he should do well again this year.
Total Risk on Top 10s: 2.00 Units
Total Risk on the Sentry Tournament of Champions: 3.10 Units
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting. Any feedback whether positive or negative is always encouraged.
Looks like our under bet is on track tonight– let’s see if the Jazz can catch up. Sacramento has to be tired. Early picks for Wednesday, below.
Hawks ML (-105), to win 1.5 units
Hawks/Kings under 244 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maybe this moves more on the Kings’ side but I can’t predict this weird ass marketplace these days and it shouldn’t, I’ll tell ya that. This is an ideal spot for the Hawks to take care of business. The Kings are gonna be playing their 6th game in 8 days AND they’re on a back to back. That’s as bad as it gets. Atlanta needs to get right. Even on the road, this is the opportunity. Betting the under for the same reason we bet it today, and because the Kings’ will be even more tired. This is a Dejounte Murray game, aka more defense from Atlanta.
Ja Morant over 27.5 points (-120), to win 1 unit
Yea I don’t see ANY WAY that Charlotte can stop Ja. His style of play is not something the soft interior defense of Charlotte can contain, and he’ll need to do even more with the Grizzlies’ slew of injuries currently.
We have a good yet somber show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend of sports! First, Kiev get’s into that terrible injury that we witnessed to Damar Hamlin and we are all saying prayers as we speak. Then, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. After that, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL week 18! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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We have eleven games taking place across the NHL tonight. There are several important matchups including Kraken/ Oilers, Flames/ Jets, Hurricanes/ Rangers, and Stars/ Kings. I break down a few of the matchups and offer my best bets along with a few player props to take a look at.
Game Previews:
Calgary Flames @ Winnipeg Jets
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Calgary Flames: 18-13-7, 3rd Pacific (7-6-5 Away)
Winnipeg Jets: 23-13-1, 2nd Central (13-6-0 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Calgary Flames
-120
-140
-1.5 (+195)
o5.5 (-120)
Winnipeg Jets
+100
+120
+1.5 (-230)
u5.5 (+100)
The Flames have won five of their last seven games including their last two. They haven’t been great offensively but they’ve been able to win low-scoring games thanks to the combination of Markstrom and Vladar. In their previous matchup against the Jets, they won 3-2.
Winnipeg has won their last two games but lost their previous three before that. The Jets had a great start to the year but have slowed down since then. The main reason for this is due to their depleted lineup without Blake Wheeler, Mason Appleton, and Cole Perfetti.
CGY: J. Markstrom (12-9-4), 2.78 GAA, .895 SV%
WPG: C. Hellebuyck (18-9-1), 2.32 GAA, .928 SV%
Dallas Stars @ Los Angeles Kings
Time: 10:00 PM ET
Dallas Stars: 23-9-6, 1st Central (12-5-3 Away)
Los Angeles Kings: 21-13-6, 2nd Pacific (11-6-2 Home)
Team
Opening ML
Current ML
Spread
Total
Dallas Stars
-125
-125
-1.5 (+195)
o6.0 (-110)
Los Angeles Kings
+105
+105
+1.5 (-230)
u6.0 (-110)
The Stars have won a season-high four games in a row. They start a two-game road trip tonight against the Kings and will face Anaheim tomorrow. In their previous matchup against the Kings this year, they won 5-2.
Los Angeles is on a bit of a hot streak, winning six of their last eight games. The Kings have struggled on the Penalty Kill allowing a goal in each of their last ten games. Pheonix Copley has also emerged as the new potential new number one for the Kings this year going 8-1-0 in his first nine starts.
DAL: J. Oettinger (17-5-3), 2.36 GAA, .921 SV%
LAK: P. Copley (8-1-0), 2.58 GAA, .905 SV%
Picks(s):
Tampa Bay Lightning/ Chicago Blackhawks over 6.5 (-109) – Barstool
Risk 0.27 to win 0.25 Units
(Wait until Elliot is confirmed as the starter for Tampa Bay)
This should be a high-scoring matchup when looking at these teams’ home/ away splits. Tampa Bay’s offense has been solid as of late while Chicago has surrendered at least three goals in their past ten games. As I alluded to above, the Blackhawks average almost a goal more at home so if they can get at least two, I think this game goes over the total. The expected goaltender matchup should also help (Elliot/ Stalock).
Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units
Seattle just ended their three-game skid on Sunday defeating the Islanders 4-1 at home. The Oilers have struggled to string wins together this who year but have won three of their past five. Seattle’s offense has been great this year while they’ve been subpar defensively. This should hurt them tonight, especially against Edmonton’s offense. The Oilers will also have an advantage in net with Skinner getting the start for them.
William Nylander over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+105) – DraftKings
Risk 0.25 to win 0.26 Units
He’s gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.8 SOG and 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last five. The Blues also rank 21st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 12th most shots on goal per game to Right Wingers.
Lean(s):
New York Islanders (-110) – FanDuel
Other Player Prop(s) to Target:
Thomas Chabot over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-140) – DraftKings
He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.4 SOG and 4.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Blue Jackets also rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the most shots on goal per game to Defensemen.
Alex DeBrincat over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-103) – Caesars
He’s gone over this number in three of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.0 SOG and 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in three of his last five. The Blue Jackets also rank 31st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 9th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
Michael Bunting over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+125) – FanDuel
He’s gone over this number in four of his last five games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 SOG and 5.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Blues also rank 21st in shots on goal allowed per game and give up the 26th most shots on goal per game to Left Wingers.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
With CFB winding down, CBB is now the main priority. I carry a 37-31-1(54.4%) record into this portion of the season and will upgrade all plays to 1u moving forward. Tonight, I’m rolling with 4 plays looking to break out in a big way.
Marquette picked up a massive road win at Villanova on Saturday to add to their already impressive resume. With that said, playing your second straight road game against a St John’s team that ranks 3rd in the country in pace sets up as a horrible matchup. What the Johnnies lack in raw shooting ability, they make up for with their pace alone. For as efficient as Marquette has been offensively, they have not upheld that same standard on the defensive end of the floor. Marquette allows far too many second-chance points, ranking just 233rd in defensive rebounding %. In comparison, St John’s is a Top 30 offensive rebounding team in America.
I like to play against teams in their second straight road game; I think Marquette’s defensive shortcomings get exposed in this particular matchup.
*CBB(1u): Nebraska/Michigan State UNDER 132.5–6 PM CT
While I can’t trust Nebraska’s offense against virtually anybody in the Big10, this defense is legit. The Cornhuskers held a high-flying Iowa offense to just 50 points last week. Prior to that, they held Creighton to 53 and Purdue to just 65. Michigan State is a poor offensive rebounding team that relies too much on elite shotmaking to pull away in these types of games; while they shoot 38% from deep, they shoot less than 45% from the field. Still, Tom Izzo has this defense in tune early in the season, as the Spartans are a Top 60 defensive rebounding team and good on the perimeter. Given Nebraska shoots just 30% from deep and 65.5% from the FT line, I’ll absolutely trust them in this spot.
A big consideration in this play is pace. Nebraska ranks 280th in adjusted tempo, while Michigan State ranks 301st. I like this to be an ugly game that stays Under the total.
*CBB(1u): Kentucky 1H -5.5 vs LSU–7 PM CT
LSU’s 12-1 start needs quite a bit of context. First off, the Tigers have played just 3 Power 5 opponents all season. More importantly, however, is the fact that LSU has yet to play a true road game this season. In just Matt McMahon’s first season and with a roster composed solely of transfers, we’ve yet to see how this team responds in tough road environments.
By contrast, this Kentucky team has played Michigan State, Gonzaga, Michigan, UCLA, and Missouri already this season. I know sentiment is low on Calipari’s squad right now, but the Wildcats undoubtedly hold an edge on both ends of the floor tonight.
Early in this game and in an unfamiliar environment, I think we see LSU at their worst.
*CBB(1u): Minnesota TT UNDER 56 @ Wisconsin–8 PM CT
Possessions will be at a premium here as both teams run at a bottom 50 pace in America. Wisconsin in particular will slow this game to a snail’s pace while playing their style of staunch defense. Minnesota endured a similar matchup a few weeks ago and put up just 51 vs Mississippi State…and that was in their home arena. This is also the same Gophers offense that put up just 53 against a fast-paced, poor defensive team in DePaul earlier in the year.
In total, the Gophers shoot just 42.5% from the field, 59% from the FT line, and will have virtually no leeway for second-chance points tonight. That’s more than enough for me to trust the Badgers’ defense in this spot.
Firstly, let’s all hope Damar Hamlin has a full recovery, although I’m seeing mixed messages about that possibility. That was scary.
Back to more trivial things – yesterday was a great example of how my betting life is going. We went 4-2 in the NBA, but it should have been a unit-altering, massive 5-1 night. Instead, the Warriors (-3) blew a huge lead in the 3rd QTR and only ended up winning by 2 points in double OT – hahahahahahahaha… are you fucking kidding me? Hopefully everyone got -1.5.
Oh and then USC is up 15 points with 3 minutes left and they lose. Just awesome. I guess we did get a good beat on the Cavs -3, but the bad to good beats are 10-1 at this point. Moving on! Not a ton of value on today’s board but I’ll take the below:
Kings/Jazz under 241.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Jazz -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Kings are a surprising 12-5 ATS to the under when they’re on the road and this is their 5th game in 7 days. The Jazz tend to limit teams a little better at home in elevation (8-9 to the under at home) and these two teams had WAY too many easy baskets in the paint in their first matchup a few days ago. Adjustments will be made and I don’t think there’s any chance they’ll score 138 points in the paint again (55% of all the points)– that’s just too easy. Unless both teams shoot over 40% from beyond the arc, this one goes under, and the Jazz had a scheduling advantage and should cover in a revenge spot.
What could have been a 3-1 night turned into a 1-3 night in the NBA last night, what else is new, but that won’t deter me from thinking we’ll have much better results moving forward. Doing everything I can on my end to make sure that happens.
Onto the plays!
Cavs -3 (-115), to win 1.5 units
I just think Cleveland is the better team. They were atypically inefficient from the field and still beat Chicago, at Chicago, the other night. Now they’re back home, Mobley should be back, and even if he and Garland aren’t back, D. Mitchell has been playing out of his mind and Jarrett Allen is their most important piece. The Bulls depend too much on DeRozan and I think Cleveland’s defense can clamp down even better after seeing their offense so recently. Like a Cavs’ cover.
Warriors -3 (-110), to win 2.5 units
The Hawks, especially without Clint Capela, don’t have any real advantage against the Warriors offensively. And the Hawks are just SO much worse on the road. This is a forgiving line for a true disparity in momentum right now; I think this is another big Jordan Poole game for the win and cover at home.
Pacers/Raptors over 231.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Raptors just aren’t playing good defense these days, it just is what it is, and a team like the Pacers can really give them problems. Indiana had no problem serving up a very efficient game and 118 points in their last meeting, a win for Indiana, and this one should look very similar. The only difference– the Raptors should be MUCH more efficient from the floor. Toronto loses 10% of their effective FG % when Siakam, Barnes, and OG Anunoby aren’t on their floor. Barnes had a terrible night and they were without Siakam in their first meeting/loss to Indiana in November. Indiana runs with pace at home, and Toronto usually follows the other team’s pace on the road. A lot of ingredients for an over — I had this at 230 but I’m still taking it for 1 unit.
Rockets 1Q +2.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Rockets 1H +4 (-110), to win 1 unit
This is right around where I have the line but that’s what confuses me about this for the sportsbooks. Dallas just thrashed Houston a few games ago and now they’re right back at it, they’re 4th time this season, and they’re only 7.5 point favorites on the road. After Eric Gordon openly criticized his team, I expect Houston to come out with more gusto and energy, and I think Dallas is probably sick and tired of playing the Rockets, quite frankly. A divisional foe that won’t go away, most of their games are closer than advertised and Houston can keep this close early. Value on the dog.
Clippers -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I have no idea why this line is so short. The Heat are way more banged up than the Clippers, and LAC’s main stars are healthy and at home in a revenge game. The Clippers are off a few bad road losses too– this is a nice opportunity to get-right against a team that really hasn’t found its footing on either side of the ball. Love the Clippers tonight.
The Hawks, especially without Clint Capela, don’t have any real advantage against the Warriors offensively. And the Hawks are just SO much worse on the road. This is a forgiving line for a true disparity in momentum right now; I think this is another big Jordan Poole game for the win and cover at home.
Cavs -3 (-115), to win 1.5 units
I just think Cleveland is the better team. They were atypically inefficient from the field and still beat Chicago, at Chicago, the other night. Now they’re back home, Mobley should be back, and even if him and Garland aren’t back, D. Mitchell has been playing out of his mind and Jarrett Allen is their most important piece. The Bulls depend too much on DeRozan and I think Cleveland’s defense can clamp down even better after seeing their offense so recently. Like a Cavs’ cover.
Sitting at 8-6, +1.95u here in Bowl Season, I’m rolling with 2 plays for Monday. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Tulane +2 vs USC–Noon PM CT
After forcing turnovers at an elite rate bailed them out all season, USC’s defense was finally exposed in the Pac-12 Championship vs Utah. We knew their pass defense was shaky entering that matchup, but not even I as a Utah bettor expected the Utes to run for 6.4 YPC on the Trojans. Tulane’s offense is similar to Utah’s in a lot of ways, but the Green Wave have an even stronger running game; Tyjae Spears ran for 6.5 YPC and 15 TD’s this season. QB Michael Pratt is not a world beater, but a 5:1 TD/INT ratio and 8.6 Y/A mark is plenty for me to trust him in this matchup. I’ll concede that USC is as healthy as they’ve been in awhile on this side of the ball, but we’ve seen the red flags all season. I like Tulane’s balance and, while they might not be high-flying, think they will sustain and finish drives.
Betting against this USC offense is tough to do, but this unit will be at far less than full strength. WR1 Jordan Addison opted out, and probably more importantly, they will be without two mainstays along their OL. In just Lincoln Riley’s first season, I don’t believe the Trojans have the quality depth at OL to soften the blow of those losses. Caleb Williams is a special player; I’m not going to talk you off of that. However, I also believe this is one of the best defenses he’s seen all year(actually THE best according to my power ratings). While pass rush is not a staple of this Green Wave defense, I give them the slight edge up front due to USC’s injury situation. Specifically, though, the Green Wave have been staunch against the run and pass all season; they held RB’s Deuce Vaughn, Frank Gore Jr, and Keaton Mitchell to their worst days of the season. One thing we saw in the Pac12 Championship was how much USC misses RB Travis Dye; replacement Austin Jones was held to just 2.3 YPC vs the Utes. I think Tulane will win handily vs the run and force USC to be one-dimensional.
Caleb Williams will get his, but when it’s all said and done, Tulane is the more balanced and complete team.
*CFB(1u): Purdue +15.5 vs LSU–Noon PM CT
I have been adamant that LSU is one of the most overvalued teams in CFB. While they had quite a bit of success in Tiger Stadium, this team is just 1-5 ATS away from Baton Rouge(I’m 4-0 fading them in this spot). Purdue might not be at full strength, but this number is a bit silly.
The biggest knock on this LSU team is their poor OL play. QB Jayden Daniels has been sacked 4 or more times on 6 separate occasions this year(it would’ve been 7 had he not exited vs Georgia), and that’s despite Daniels being a very mobile QB. I think LSU’s gotten the most out of their run game given they lack elite talent at the RB position, but Purdue’s run defense is quite staunch. The Boilermakers held Illinois to 102 yds rushing, Maryland to 72 yds rushing, Minnesota to 44 yds rushing, and Penn State to 98 yds rushing. Purdue starts to loosen up and become more attackable in their secondary, but I don’t view LSU has some high-flying passing game. Daniels threw for just 7.5 Y/A this season, and LSU is without 2 of its top 3 WR’s for this game.
Purdue will be without QB Aidan O’Connell and top WR Charlie Jones as they opted out. In steps Austin Burton at QB; Burton doesn’t present much of a threat in the deep passing game, but he has completed over 70% of his passes during stops at UCLA and Purdue and gives the Boilermakers a high floor in O’Connell’s absence. Purdue finally found balance in their offense this year in the form of freshman RB Devon Mockobee(5.1 YPC, 9 TD’s), and I think the Boilermakers can establish that part of their offense in this matchup. We saw LSU’s run defense deteroirate towards the end of the season, highlighted by when they allowed nearly 300 yards on the ground to lowly Texas A&M. I haven’t loved this secondary for much of the year and don’t think Burton is an incompetent replacement at QB.
I’m 4-0 fading the Tigers in this role… let’s add to it.
