Alright ladies and gents, it’s JANUARY. Idk if I’ve ever experienced a crueler month than December 2022 in my NBA betting career, but I have renewed hope in a new calendar year. This is usually where the NBA (finally) starts making sense.
In that vein, I like a few more plays than usual today. Let’s get it.
Celtics 1Q -0.5 (-105 on FD), to win 1 unit
Celtics/Nuggets 1H O119 (-108 at FD), to win 1.5 units
The New Year usually brings out the best in everyone, which means we should see a great version of both the Nuggets and Celtics today. Thing is, Denver usually overwhelms teams early at home but I don’t think they can do that to Boston. The Celtics defense is elite and their team chemistry is back to a sky-high level and that should mean early success that’s jarring for Denver’s average defense. Eventually the Nuggets will go on a run and inflate the score, so we’ll take an early over, too.
Kings/Grizzlies under 240.5 (-110), to win 2 units
This total is too high– it’s only there because of the surge in points we’ve seen lately in the NBA, but only squares are taking the over today. The Grizzlies have been winning with their defense lately; they’re the #1 team in DEF EFF over their last 5 games, while the Kings have fallen out of the top 10 in OFF EFF. Memphis has been a top 10 defense all season at home and the Kings’ pace is slowing. They match up well against each other, too — two feisty Western teams who can make life difficult for similarly built, smaller lineups. Give me the under for 2 units.
Wizards/Bucks over 226 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maybe it’s simply the absence of Jrue Holiday lately but the Bucks’ defense hasn’t looked elite at all. Bradley Beal should be back today, which is a huge offensive boost for Washington, but even if he doesn’t, the Wizards are a good perimeter team and the Bucks have struggled defending that area. Giannis can dominate again, too– like the over.
Happy New Year’s Eve, folks! Decent day yesterday. Better today, and even better incoming in 2023- let’s gooo!
Clippers -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Clippers have been playing some great basketball and while you can say the same about the Pacers, they’re not on the same level. LAC matches up really well against the Pacers defensively, who don’t do much in the mid-range. The Clippers are experts at defending in the paint and the perimeter, and I expect them to show out today before they return back home.
Nets/Hornets over 237.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Hornets have been moving at the fastest pace in the NBA with LaMelo back and the Charlotte defense doesn’t have any chance to stop Brooklyn’s superior offense. I think this goes well into the 240s.
Pelicans +6 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Better spot for the Grizzlies, but this is too many points for a really good Pelicans squad, who’s feeling themselves right now. This series is tied 1-1, and Memphis has a game tomorrow night. I have this at Grizzlies -3.5, so I need to take it.
Heat/Jazz over 226.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This total is again too low and feels like more of a “Heat total,” instead of what we think will be a fast-paced game because of how proficient the Jazz are, especially at home, running in transition. The Heat will be exhausted after facing a superior offense in Denver last night, too.
The battle of the LAs is on, and I think that it is a pretty interesting game. The funny thing this week about capping, is that motivation is starting to be a factor. The Chargers clinched a playoff spot on Monday night with an easy win vs a coach-less and quarterback-less Colts team. The question that I have is, how motivated should the Chargers be in this situation? The best that they can do is move into the top wildcard spot which puts them on the road against likely a hot Jaguars team. It’s better than the Bills or Bengals but it’s not like they won’t have to play them at some point anyways. The Chargers are finally getting healthy and it has shown well, but does that warrant them laying 6.5 points in essentially a neutral game vs their city rivals? I am really like what Shawn McVey is doing with Baker Mayfield towards the end of the season and the super bowl champs are trying to save face. The Chargers only rank 19th in offensive EPA while the Rams are 29th. The Bolts also only 15th in defensive EPA while the Rams rank 16th. This game should be much closer than 6.5 points and I also see some serious scoring. Take the Rams and the over.
Rams +6.5 – 2.5 stars Over 40.5 – 2 stars
Carolina vs Tampa -3.5 O/U 40.5
What do you do when two bad teams play each other? You take the points. The Buccaneers are more fraudulent than Sam Bankmen-fried and Bernie Madoff volunteering at a soup kitchen. Tampa Bay’s strength used to be stopping the run. This year, due to all of their injury woes, Tampa only ranks 19th in opponent rush EPA while the Panthers rank 7th at 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Carolina ranks 22nd in overall offensive EPA to Tampa’s 23rd. They also bust the Bucs ranking 17th in defensive EPA to Tampa’s 19th. My metrics have Tampa winning this game by 2.7 points, but we also have to remember that Tampa just lost their best offensive tackle in Josh Wells. I see paths to victory here for the Panthers. Grab the points and if you can’t get the hook, wait it out.
Carolina +3.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: Cleveland to +8.5 with the Steelers to +8.5 – 2 stars
IMPORTANT NOTE: Hi All! From now through the rest of the NBA season, my analysis will be much shorter with every pick. We’re in the final trimester with my wife and, for many reasons, life has been mentally taxing and insanely busy. You can always ask me questions by shooting me a DM on either Instagram or Twitter, and I’ll get to it when I can, but to save myself some time/pressure, I need to abbreviate these emails. Thank you as always for your support.
As a reminder: Many of you are approaching the end of your subscriptions, and although it’s been a rocky start to a very unpredictable NBA season, January-March has always been our most profitable. We hit over 65% for more than 45 units last season in that span. I intend to do the same this season.
HEY – maybe we can see some sensical things tonight in the NBA. Onto the picks:
Wizards -5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Magic are sitting almost everyone/five of their players are suspended after their controversial loss to the Pistons the other night, while Washington is finding their footing thanks to some cohesive basketball and a team that’s finally at full health.
T-Wolves/Bucks 1Q under 56.5 (-105), to win 1 unit
Giannis under 55.5 PAR (-125), to win 1 unit
Both of these teams allowed some crazy end-of-game offense to their opponents two days ago and it screwed them both. Expect more defense from the jump. Giannis will look to incorporate others on a mega-inflated PAR line after dropping 70+ PAR in the last contest. That’s not sustainable.
Heat/Nuggets over 223.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This is a Heat total. The line is too low for a Nuggets’ team that’s absolutely prolific on their home court. A few important Nuggets’ players have questionable tags but many sat out in their last road game against Sacramento. Expect them at full strength and at their best against a Miami defense that’s yet to find its defense this year.
I’m off to a 5-3, +2.25u start in Bowl Season! I’ve locked in 5 more plays from the 30th-31st, including a play on each CFP Semifinal. I’ll be back with my January 2nd plays at a later date.
TCU had a cinderella run in Year 1 of the Sonny Dykes era and had multiple second half comebacks along the way, but I don’t think they’re ready for this sort of matchup on either side of the ball.
TCU’s offense is very explosive, but it’s not overly consistent. QB Max Duggan has thrived in the deep passing game this season, but he worsens significantly in the short-to-intermediate passing game. This is simply TCU’s style and a big reason why they’re here, but it also means I don’t see them consistently sustaining drives against an elite Michigan defense. This Wolverines secondary held both CJ Stroud and Sean Clifford in check, and I think they’ll hold up well here. It seems like TCU RB Kendre Miller has a 50+ yard run each week, but that can somewhat mislead you as to his level of consistency. The TCU OL has been shaky in Big12 play and will now face a major step up in competition; I expect Michigan to win up front and contain the Horned Frogs rushing attack. I wouldn’t be surprised if TCU starts fast and hits on some explosives, but when it comes down to sustaining drives against an elite defense, I think that’s where TCU ends up faltering.
Michigan is a run-first offense that isn’t overly sexy, but it’s not hard to see why they’re undefeated. This Wolverines OL is good at protecting QB JJ McCarthy, and they’ve paved the way for multiple 6+ YPC rushers. Donovan Edwards is an incredibly effective back(7.5 YPC) that will carry the majority of the load in this game. We saw TCU step up big time vs Bijan Robinson(Texas), but that seems to have been a one-off. The TCU secondary has also had some slip-ups; Will Howard threw for 11.3 Y/A against this unit earlier in the year, and Baylor QB Blake Shapen threw for 9 Y/A on the Frogs. JJ McCarthy has not been given the full reigns to the offense, but he takes care of the football(3 INT’s) and is plenty capable of taking advantage of a leaky secondary.
I expect TCU to come out strong and put up a good fight, but Michigan’s style is far more sustainable over the course of a 60 minute game. Wolverines pull away in the 2nd Half and win this by double digits.
*CFB(1u): Ohio State +6.5 vs Georgia–12/31 7 PM CT
I have backed Georgia in their bigger matchups all season and think the world of what Kirby Smart has built in Athens. But as I handicap this matchup, I think Ohio State can go toe-to-toe with the Bulldogs. This is not as much me looking to fade Georgia, but I do think the Buckeyes are being a bit overlooked after their horrific loss to Michigan.
I have sung the praises of Stetson Bennett all season and think he’s a far better QB than given credit for. Still, there’s little doubt in my mind that CJ Stroud is the better QB in this matchup. I also think Ohio State is slightly better at RB than Georgia; the Bulldogs’ run game is my main knit pick of the offense. Lastly, the Buckeyes convert red zone chances to TD’s at an elite 75% rate, while Georgia has settled for 21 red zone FG’s this season.
Ohio State clearly can’t afford to have as many breakdowns in their Back 7 defensively as they had against Michigan; if they do, we can throw this ticket in the trash. With that said, this is still a defense that is far improved from a year ago and especially stout in their Front 7. I still think Georgia’s defense is probably the best in the land, but they did just allow 500 yards through the air to LSU. You can’t overadjust from what you saw from one game on one given day; that principle applies to both defenses. But, I do think Georgia’s performance in the SEC Title shows they are not unbeatable through the air.
Quite honestly, I think this will be an epic back-and-forth game and an instant classic that comes down to the finish. There’s a reason that this number has not budged and moved to 7 despite everybody and their mother unloading on UGA. I think the Buckeyes keep it within the number.
Other Plays(Dec 30th-31st)
*CFB(1u): Notre Dame -3 vs South Carolina–12/30 2:30 PM CT
Notre Dame had a few premier players opt out for this game(DE Isaiah Foskey, TE Michael Mayer), but actually, South Carolina fared far worse in that department. The Gamecocks will be without their top 2 CB’s, a starting OL, their top 2 TE’s, their RB1, and two other defensive starters. In addition, I believe this line is overly reactionary to South Carolina’s strong finish to the season and neglects multiple red flags we saw consistently over the course of the year.
Without MarShawn Lloyd at RB, the Gamecocks looked mostly inept offensively this year; no other RB eclipsed 4 YPC this season. Spencer Rattler’s 7.9 Y/A is, let’s be frank, relatively unimpressive. Even with Foskey out, I think the Irish are a very complete defense from front-to-back. They will beat South Carolina up front and dominate against the run, forcing Rattler to beat them consistently with his arm. People will love to talk about South Carolina’s offensive success against Tennessee and Clemson, but let’s not forget, they also put up 6 points vs Florida, 10 points vs Missouri, and less than 300 total yards vs Texas A&M.
Notre Dame QB Drew Pyne entered the portal just in time for original starter Tyler Buchner to return from injury. I don’t view this as a huge loss for Notre Dame and think these guys are interchangeable; there’s probably a reason Buchner won the job over Pyne to begin with. The passing game will take a hit with Michael Mayer opting out, but they will gain all of that back with their ability to run the football. Audric Estime emerged as a difference making back for the Irish throughout the season(5.8 YPC, 11 TD’s), and South Carolina’s weakness defensively is stopping the run. This year, the Gamecocks allowed 295 yards rushing to Arkansas, 226 yards rushing to Vanderbilt, and 375 yards rushing to Florida. While their secondary had been the strength all season, I have my doubts that will continue with the attrition at CB.
I love this matchup for Notre Dame at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and think we’re getting a discounted line after everybody saw South Carolina win on a national stage late in the season. I’ve had a lot of success backing the Irish in these sorts of spots this year, and I’ll trust them once again.
*CFB(1u): Clemson/Tennessee OVER 63.5–12/30 7 PM CT
Tennessee has a style of play that they live and die by. Even without Hendon Hooker, this is an offense that’s going to run at a manically fast pace and use tempo in the run game to catch a defense sleeping in the vertical passing game. Defensively, their secondary has proven to be quite atrocious(see Florida and South Carolina games); in turn, they live by a “boom-or-bust” nature and sell out to pressure the QB. Is Tennessee at full strength offensively? No. Do I think that changes much? Also no.
Tennessee QB Joe Milton is not your typical backup. He might have one of the strongest arms in the country, and he has proven to be quite underrated when he gets his chances(8.5 career Y/A). This season, he has thrown for over 13 Y/A and just led the Vols to a 56-0 win over Vanderbilt. Clemson is still pretty good against the run, but we have seen them struggle in their secondary on multiples occasions(South Carolina and Wake Forest). They also have two starters in their Front 7 opt out for this game, so I’m not conceding Tennessee won’t be able to establish the run. Did I mention the pace that Tennessee runs at?
Cade Klubnik is a clear upgrade at QB over DJ Uiagalelei; we saw Klubnik expose UNC’s secondary in the ACC title game, and he draws a similar matchup here. I do think Tennessee will force Klubnik into some mistakes and hit on some of their all-out blitz packages, but over the course of a 60 minute game, I also think Cade Klubnik will have no problem hitting on explosive plays. Ultimately, I think the freshman tosses 4-5 TD’s alone. Clemson RB Will Shipley is a good back, but Tennessee has been pretty stout against the run; this area of the matchup is a stalemate.
Both of these secondaries will be vulnerable in this particular matchup, and the sheer pace should push this over the total. I would’ve made this 66.5.
*CFB(1u): Iowa/Kentucky UNDER 31–12/31 11 AM CT
I played the Iowa/Minnesota UNDER 32.5 late in the season and cashed, so I’m no stranger to playing these low totals. While this a historically low total, this checks every single box I look for when playing an Under.
After Will Levis opted out and Iowa had to settle on their 3rd stringer, these starting QB’s have combined for ZERO attempts over their career(s). Iowa has a borderline elite secondary and top 5 defense as a whole, while Kentucky’s strength defensively is limiting explosive plays through the air. Kentucky lost their top 2 RB’s to opt out and have consistently got manhandled up front all season; the same can be said about Iowa unless they’re playing Northwestern. Both teams have a <55% red zone TD% on the season, and to top it all off, both run at a snails pace offensively.
Where is the path to points here? This total is historically low, but I’d argue it’s not low enough.
The Cowboys could be a little flat at the Titans after beating the Eagles.
The Browns at Washington after being eliminated from the playoffs is tough.
Any team out of the playoffs that is not playing spoiler.
The Jaguars have less reason to win vs Houston if the Titans lose to Dallas this week. Jacksonville could rest their guys potentially. They could win this game, lose vs the Titans and still not make wild card.
The Titans might take the L on Thursday vs the Cowboys to rest for the Jags
Get Up Spots:
Teams that can play spoiler in their division.
Those teams are Chicago at Detroit and Houston vs Jacksonville and Denver at Kansas City.
Teams trying to make the playoffs.
Look Ahead Spots:
Jags could be looking past the Texans to the Titans.
The Titans could be looking past the Cowboys to the Jags.
The 49ers could be looking past everyone to the playoffs.
*CBB(0.5u): Brown TT UNDER 57 @ Northwestern–12 PM CT
I’m willing to trust Northwestern’s defense against dang near anybody; I power rate this as a Top 10 defense in the country. The Wildcats are a Top 25 defensive rebounding team in America and will force Brown to make tough, contested shots to surpass this number. On the year, Brown is shooting less than 43% from the field, less than 33% from beyond the arc, and a pitiful 57% from the FT line. The Bears have played just 1 Power 5 opponent this year, and they were held to 50 at Michigan State.
Northwestern will slow the pace of this game down considerably and hold Brown to an inefficient day.
*CBB(0.5u): Georgetown/DePaul OVER 153.5–7 PM CT
It’s pretty clear that Georgetown’s defense is one you’re going to want to fade. The Hoyas have allowed 80 or more on five separate occasions already this year, including in each of their last 3 games. DePaul is very aggressive at shooting the 3 ball and do so plenty competent enough(35.5%) to have success in this matchup. Georgetown also ranks just 251st in defensive rebounding %, meaning there should be plenty of second chance opportunities for the Blue Demons.
This is a matchup where I have no issue trusting Georgetown’s offense. When you’re allowing 83 to Northwestern, 89 to Samford, and 82 to Oklahoma State like DePaul has, you’re simply not a very good defense. The Blue Demons one-up Georgetown by ranking an even-worse 309th in defensive rebounding % and will be at a severe size mismatch down low.
Each team likes to use tempo to their advantage, and each defense is poor on the glass. Ultimately, both of these teams’ prowess from the FT line(DePaul shoots nearly 80%) is enough to get me on this Over.
*CBB(0.5u): Cincinnati 1H -2.5 vs Tulane–8 PM CT
Cincinnati will hold a massive advantage down low in this matchup. Tulane ranks a laughable 358th in offensive rebounding %, meaning the Green Wave will need borderline elite shotmaking to hang in this game. However, Cincinnati holds an edge in both FG% and 3ptFG% despite playing a FAR tougher schedule up to this point. Tulane’s defense is pretty clearly the worst unit on the floor in this matchup, so I think the Bearcats have a far more sustainable path to points here.
Why 1H vs full game? Tulane shoots a staggering 80% from the FT line, while Cincinnati lags far behind shooting under 70%. That is far too big of a discrepancy to trust Cincinnati late in this game.
Well, as you can imagine, it’s hard to want to put out any bets in the NBA anymore. In case you missed it:
The Bucks gave up a double digit lead with 3 min left, didn’t cover
The NBA’s hottest team, the Nets, were down for 97% of their contest against ATL’s B squad and only mustered a 1 point win over the Hawks, didn’t cover
Our other two bets hit, but for just 2 units.
Contemplating a lot of things, including a complete switch over to NCAAB and/or limiting my exposure to the NBA altogether for a full season. I’m not an addict or sadist for torture, so everything is on the table. TBD for now.
Need a break from the BS, so here are my leans today:
Happy New Year everyone! Kiev O’Neil is going solo to cover the rest of the bowl games with some NFL week 17!First, Kiev gets into a big teaser that he used to get out of a few plays. Next, we talk college bowl games December 30th to January 2nd with some leans and some plays. Then, Kiev gets into the NFL full slate of games with some more plays and some more leans. Finally, Kiev talks about some sharp money movements for the College and NFL Weekend! Should you have any questions for the Monday mailbag, or games that you want us to cap on our shows, please message us at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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