I bring a 32-24-1 CBB record into tonight and am rolling with 3 plays looking to keep us on the right side. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CBB(0.5u): Fordham PK vs Davidson–6 PM CT
Davidson is not the same sharp-shooting team we have become accustomed to over the years; they shoot just 45.5% from the floor and 34.5% from beyond the arc. That’s fine, but I don’t believe it will be another to overcome what’s going to be a massive disadvantage down low. Fordham is a Top 25 defensive rebounding team in America, while Davidson is 336th in offensive rebounding %. Similarly, Davidson blocks just 1.7 shots/game compared to Fordham’s 5.8.
Fordham can be sloppy with the basketball, and I’ll concede that they played a very easy non-conference schedule. With that said, the Rams’ advantage at the free-throw line combined with the mismatch they have down low should give Fordham the home W in this one.
*CBB(0.5u): Kentucky -3 @ Missouri–6 PM CT
Missouri has played 2 Tournament caliber teams all season; while they blew Illinois out last week, they lost by 28 to Kansas at home a few Saturdays ago. The Tigers run at a maniacally fast pace and have shot the lights out up to this point in the season. However, I think Kentucky is equipped to hold their own on this end of the floor. John Calipari’s squad has been tuned up by having to play Gonzaga, Michigan, and UCLA already, and this is a Wildcats team that I expect to be led by their defense throughout the course of the season.
I think Kentucky will score at will in this matchup. This is a Missouri defense that allowed 95 to Kansas and 75 to lowly Wichita State, making them FAR AND AWAY the worst unit on the floor tonight. Kentucky is shooting 40% from beyond the arc this year, and they will hold a major edge on the boards; Kentucky ranks 6th in offensive rebounding %, while Missouri ranks 335th in defensive rebounding %.
Missouri’s path to stay in this game is elite shotmaking, something I don’t think is overly sustainable as they step up in competition. Wildcats pull away and win this one comfortably.
*CBB(0.5u): Baylor 1H -12 vs Nicholls–7 PM CT
After a fast start to begin the season, Baylor has not been up to snuff in recent weeks. Last we saw of the Bears, they won by just 10 against lowly Northwestern State and put up just 58 against one of the worst defenses in the country. With that said, I expect a solid effort from the Bears early in this game after having over a week off.
Nicholls State has actually put up a good fight against the likes of Texas Tech and Mississippi State recently, but their style of play leaves them vulnerable to getting schelacked in these sort of matchups. The Colonels are below average on both ends of the floor, yet they run at one of the fastest paces in the country; it’s no surprise Arizona put up 117 against them. Baylor is going to match Nicholls’ pace but pair it with far better efficiency on both ends of the floor. This game will be over by Halftime.
Nov 23, 2019; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban cheers on his players during warmups before the start of their game against the Western Carolina Catamounts at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Friday, Dec. 30
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: N.C. State vs. Maryland -1 O/U 48
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Bank of America Stadium — Charlotte, N.C.
Maryland: Motivation – Medium – They should want to give it a go.
North Carolina State: Motivation – Medium Low – Why not give it a go being so close to home but they were not rewarded much having to stay in state. The preseason expectations were so high on the Wolfpack.
Home Field: NC State only 165 miles away.
Dave Doeren, North Carolina State – 5-2
Mike Locksley, Maryland – 1-0
SOS about equal with Maryland at 49 and NC State at 53.
Maryland has a .98 yards per play advantage here.
Maryland
WR Dontay Demus Jr. (Opt-out)
WR Jacob Copeland (Opt-out)
NC State
QB Devin Leary (Transfer portal)
QB M.J. Morris (Injury)
RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye (Injury)
WR Devin Carter (Transfer portal)
NC State has the better defense here, but Maryland is the better team as a whole.
Maryland will be without two of their best three receivers.
I think Maryland will be motivated for Tauli Tagovailoa who could return next year.
I have Maryland power rated 3.75 points better than NC State. Gonna at least lean the Terps here and I probably will eventually take them.
Maryland -1 – 2 stars
Sun Bowl: Pitt vs. UCLA -5.5 O/U 53.5
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: CBS
Location: Sun Bowl — El Paso, Texas
Pitt: Motivation – Medium – Kedon Slovis entered the transfer portal but Nate Yarnell looked pretty good.
UCLA: Motivation – Medium – Last chance to show off to the NFL for DTR.
Home Field: None
Pat Narduzzi, Pittsburgh – 1-4
Chip Kelly, UCLA – 2-2
Pittsburgh
QB Kedon Slovis (Transfer portal)
QB Nick Patti (Injury) but might play
DT Calijah Kancey (Opt-out)
DE Nate Temple (Injury)
DT Calijah Kancey (Opt-out)
EDGE John Morgan III (Transfer portal)
EDGE Sam Williams (Transfer portal)
EDGE Deslin Alexandre (Opt-out)
EDGE Habakkuk Baldonado (Injury)
LB SirVocea Dennis (Opt-out)
S Brandon Hill (Opt-out)
S Judson Tallandier II (Transfer portal)
Surprisingly, not a lot of opt outs as of yet, but this line crashed down as UCLA was at least a 6 point favorite.
SOS is about equal with 63 for Pitt and 58 for UCLA
UCLA has a .37 yards per play advantage over Pitt.
This bowl should be a fun matchup of offense vs defense here, and Pittsburgh has an amazing pass rush ranking 4th in sack margin that could fluster DTR.
I only have UCLA -1.5 on the power rating, but does the stop down from Slovis to Patti or Yarnell warrant a move past the three? I like how Pitt finished their season here, but the recent added opt outs to more defensive players hurts Pitt.
Lean Pitt +5.5
Gator Bowl: South Carolina vs. Notre Dame -2.5 O/U 51.5
Start Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: TIAA Bank Field — Jacksonville, Fla.
South Carolina: Motivation – Medium High – Bad start yet they made a bowl game which is huge.
Notre Dame: Motivation – Medium Low – Their QB Drew Pine is transferring and Notre Dame wanted something bigger in my opinion.
Home Field: None
Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame – 0-1
Shane Beamer, South Carolina – 1-0
Notre Dame
QB Drew Pyne (Transfer portal)
QB Tyler Buchner (Injury)
TE Michael Mayer (Opt-out)
DL Jacob Lacey (Transfer portal)
DE Isaiah Foskey (Opt-out)
DE Ositadinma Ekwonu (Transfer portal)
DB Jayden Bellamy (Transfer portal)
South Carolina
RB Marshawn Lloyd (Transfer Portal)
RB Christian Beal-Smith (Injury)
WR Josh Vann (Injury)
WR Antwane Wells (Injury)
WR Corey Rucker (Transfer portal)
TE Jaheim Bell (Transfer portal)
TE Austin Stogner (Transfer portal)
TE Traevon Kenion (Retirement)
DL Zacch Pickens (Opt-out)
DB RJ Roderick (Transfer portal)
CB Cam Smith (Opt-out)
CB Darius Rush (Opt-out/Injury)
Too many opt outs to care about stats, but ND might be getting QB Tyler Buckner back so I think that this line is a free roll here for the Irish. Take ND
ND -2.5 – 2 stars
Arizona Bowl: Ohio vs. Wyoming +1 O/U 42
Start Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: Barstool
Location: Arizona Stadium — Tucson, Ariz.
Ohio: Motivation – Medium High – Tucson isn’t much different than Tombstone Arizona but at least it’s warmer.
Wyoming: Motivation – Medium – Not sure what these kids will do against a MAC team here.
Home Field: None
Craig Bohl, Wyoming – 11-3 ATS
Ohio
QB Kurtis Rourke (Injury) for Ohio
Wyoming
RB Titus Swen (Transfer portal)
RB Joey Braasch (Transfer portal)
RB Dawaiian McNeely (Injury)
RB D.Q. James (Injury)
WR Joshua Cobbs (Transfer portal)
DE Oluwaseyi Omotosho (Transfer portal)
Ohio looked terrible vs Toledo without Rourke, and I can’t see them looking any better this game all the way in Tucson.
Wyoming lost all their running backs and their best WR and Defensive end.
Both teams about equal in yards per play close to even.
Craig Bohl is too good at bowl games to ignore playing Wyoming here for something.
Wyoming PK – 1 star
Orange Bowl: Tennessee vs. Clemson -5.5 O/U 63.5
Start Time: 8:00 P.M. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Hard Rock Stadium — Miami Gardens, Fla.
Clemson: Motivation – Medium High – Dabo is a great coach and they have a new life with their young QB in Cade Klubnik.
Tennessee: Motivation – Medium low – They still get to play Clemson even after the rough loss to South Carolina with the injury to Hendon Hooker that took them out of the Playoffs.
Home Field: None
Josh Heupel, Tennessee – 1-3
Dabo Swinney, Clemson – 12-6
Tennessee
QB Hendon Hooker (Injury)
WR Jalin Hyatt (Opt-out)
WR Cedric Tillman (Opt-out)
WR Jimmy Calloway (Transfer portal)
Clemson
WR Beaux Collins (Injury)
WR Decari Collins (Transfer portal)
WR EJ Williams (Transfer portal)
DT Myles Murphy (Opt-out)
DE Xavier Thomas (Injury)
LB Trenton Simpson (Opt-out)
Let the Cole Klubnik Era begin.
It’s hard to know the upgrade from Cole Klubnik when he lost two of his top 4 receivers.
At the same time, how good is Joe Milton who had to do essentially nothing at Vanderbilt and is without two of his top four receivers.
I trust Dabo here more than Heuple, but I think that the under might be a good look in this game.
Under 63.5 – 2 stars
Saturday, Dec. 31
Music City Bowl: Iowa vs. Kentucky +2.5 O/U 31.5
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Nissan Stadium — Nashville, Tenn.
Iowa: Motivation – Medium – Fun destination for these kids in Nash-Vegas, but by the way that they play offense, I don’t expect them to do much.
Kentucky: Motivation – Medium low – I don’t think Kentuckians like Tennessee. I might be wrong.
Home Field: Kentucky somewhat only going 212 miles away.
Kirk Ferentz, Iowa – 11-6-1
Mark Stoops, Kentucky – 3-2-1
Kentucky
QB Will Levis (Opt-out)
RB Chris Rodriguez (Opt-out)
RB Kavosiey Smoke (Transfer portal)
Iowa
QB Alex Padilla (Transfer portal)
QB Spencer Petras (Injury)
Iowas QB Joey Labas, has never attempted a pass.
QB Keiya Sheron will be at the helm for the Wildcats.
Both teams are without a quarterback but I think Kentucky lost more without their two main running backs.
This is the lowest total in college football, but I sure as hell am not taking the over.
Neither offense is any good, but I think Iowa wins by 2 points. Kirk Ferentz is too good in bowls.
Iowa PK -125 – 1.5 stars
Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Kansas State +6 O/U 56
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Caesars Superdome — New Orleans, La.
Kansas State: Motivation – High – Playing Nick Saben and Alabama really says it all.
Alabama: Motivaiton – Medium – But Don’t count out Nick Saben here. Same thing happened in 2019 where they put a whooping on Michigan. (phyliss)
Home Field: Alabama should have more fans here 288 miles away from Tuscaloosa.
Chris Klieman, Kansas State – 1-1
Nick Saban, Alabama – 11-8 (at Alabama)
So far, no major transfers or opt outs affecting this bowl minus maybe Alabama’s starting guard who went to TCU in Javion Cohen.
Alabama has a 1.4 net yard per play advantage here.
Bama will lose some guys to transfer, but QB Bryce Young, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, EDGE Will Anderson, CB Malachi Moore, S Jordan Battle, and S Brian Branch are all in right now.
Will Howard will quarterback once again for Kansas State, but he isn’t all that experienced like Bryce Young is in big situations.
Remember when people thought Alabama wouldn’t be motivated to beat Michigan in 2019? How did that go?
I have Alabama -9.5.
Alabama -6 – 3 stars
Fiesta Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal): Michigan vs. TCU +8 O/U 58
Start Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: State Farm Stadium — Glendale, Ariz.
Michigan: Motivation – High – Playoffs
TCU: Motivation – High – Playoffs
Home Field: Michigan has more fans than TCU so slight advantage Blue.
Jim Harbaugh, Michigan – 3-5
Sonny Dykes, TCU – 2-2
Michigan
RB Blake Corum (Injury)
TE Colston Loveland (Injury)
TCU is coming into this game relatively healthy, but they haven’t faced a defense like Michigan’s all year long ranking 3rd in EPA per play and 8th in success rate.
Max Duggan has a ton of heart and this team very much deserved to make it this far by the way that they finished, but I think that they were also fortunate this year to win some of the game that they have, and it could all catch up to them this game.
Michigan has a .7 yards per play advantage over TCU and they rank higher in success rate.
I am not really worried about the Blake Chorum injury as Donavan Edwards has been sensational at 7.45 yards per carry.
Michigan is the experienced team here and a Trust them more than TCU.
I have Michigan -11, but I like the first half more due to TCU’s magic at the end of games.
Michigan 1st half -4 – 2.5 stars
Peach Bowl (College Football Playoff Semifinal): Georgia vs. Ohio State +6.5 O/U 62
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium — Atlanta, Ga.
Ohio State: Motivation – High – Playoffs
Georgia: Motivation – High – Playoffs
Home Field: Slight lean to Georgia being in their own State.
Kirby Smart, Georgia – 7-2
Ryan Day, Ohio State – 1-3
Georgia
WR Ladd McConkey (Injury)
OL Warren McClendon (Injury)
Ohio State
WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Injury)
RB TreVeyon Henderson (Injury)
RB Miyan Williams (Injury)
OG Matt Jones (Injury)
LB Teradja Mitchell (Transfer portal)
I think that Ladd McConkey does play for Georgia but I haven’t heard his status.
Georgia has had a slightly harder schedule ranking 32nd to Ohio State’s ranking 44th
Ohio State has a .22 net yard per play advantage, but I also think that Georgia shut it down early against a lot of the teams that they have played.
Ohio State has some big running back issues with Henderson out, and they will have to rely some on their young backups.
My number is Georgia -7 in this game. Something is wrong with Ohio State and I feel that CJ Stroud isn’t the same without a clean pocket.
Monday, Jan. 2
ReliaQuest Bowl: Illinois vs. Mississippi State +1 O/U 46
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN2
Location: Raymond James Stadium — Tampa, Fla.
Mississippi State: Motivation – High – They will want to win this for Mike Leach.
Illinois: Medium High – Illinois first bowl game in a while. Getting to play SEC is nice, but Illinois blew their chances to win the Big 10 West. Let’s hope Brett doesn’t hit it too hard in Tampa!
Home Field: None
Bret Bielema, Arkansas – 5-4
Illinois
RB DD Snyder (Transfer portal)
RB Chase Brown (Opt-out)
TE Luke Ford (Opt-out)
LB Ezekiel Holmes (Injury)
CB Devon Witherspoon (Opt-out)
CB Tahveon Nicholson (Injury)
S Sydney Brown (Opt-out)
Mississippi State
RB Dillon Johnson (Transfer portal)
RB Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
RB J.J. Jernighan (Transfer portal)
RB Ke’Travion Hargrove (Transfer portal)
WR Rara Thomas (Transfer portal)
WR Zavion Thomas (Transfer portal)
S Collin Duncan (Declared for the draft)
Illinois has a .78 net yard per play advantage here.
The death of Mississippi State head coach Mike Leach was devastating, but I think it rallies this Bulldogs team to try and win one for the gipper.
Mississippi State has had the harder SOS ranking 17th to Illinois at 52nd.
Illinois defense is the best unit on the field even with the loss of DC Ryan Walters, but they might have some opt outs.
If Illinois keeps it together, I like them to win the game, but their transfers are really decimating this defense.
Lean Illinois -1, but the Mike
Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Purdue +15 O/U 56.5
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ABC
Location: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, Fla.
LSU: Motivation – Medium – Lost chances to get into playoffs and some kids will sit out.
Purdue: Motivation – Medium – They get to try and beat an overrated SEC team but Jeff Brohm is going to Louisville.
Home Field: None
Brian Kelly, LSU – 5-9
LSU
QB Jayden Daniels (Injury)
WR Jack Bech (Transfer portal)
WR Kyren Lacy (Injury)
WR Jaray Jenkins (Opt-out)
EDGE B.J. Ojulari (Opt-out)
LB Phillip Webb (Transfer portal)
CB Jay Ward (Opt-out)
DT Maason Smith (Injury)
NT Jaquelin Roy (Opt-out)
EDGE B.J. Ojulari (Opt-out)
EDGE Ali Gaye (Opt-out)
EDGE Desmond Little (Transfer portal)
LB Kolbe Fields (Transfer portal)
LB Phillip Webb (Transfer portal)
CB Jay Ward (Opt-out)
CB Sevyn Banks (Injury)
CB Jaelyn Davis-Robinson (Transfer portal)
CB Damarius McGhee (Transfer portal)
CB Mekhi Garner (Opt-out)
S Derrick Davis Jr. (Transfer portal)
Purdue
RB Kobe Lewis (Transfer portal)
LG Spencer Holstege (Transfer portal)
CB Cory Trice (Opt-out)
QB Aidan O’Connell (Opt-out)
RB King Doerue (Injury)
WR Charlie Jones (Opt-out)
WR Elijah Canion (Injury)
WR Broc Thompson (Injury)
TE Payne Durham (Opt-out)
CB Cory Trice (Opt-out)
This line shot up after Jeff Brohm announced that he is moving to Louisville and it got much worse when O’Connell opted out, but I have to wonder if it has went up too much. Jeff’s brother Brian will be the interim coach for this game. LSU only as a .73 net yard per play advantage, and they lost their best corner and edge rusher to the NFL.
I don’t like Chip Kelly’s bowl ATS here at 5-9. Lean Purdue.
Cotton Bowl Classic: USC vs. Tulane +2.5 O/U 62
Start Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
USC: Motivation – Low – The shank protectors blew their chances at the playoffs and Pac 12 title in 1 day. Kids are leaving as well.
Tulane: Motivation – Medium High – Keep the good feelings going!
Home Field: None supposedly, but I think the crowd goes for Tulane so there’s that.
Willie Fritz, Tulane: 12-8
Lincoln Riley, USC -2-2
USC
QB Caleb Williams (Injury)
C Brett Neillon (Injury)
OG Andrew Vorhees (Injury)
LB Ralen Goforth (Transfer portal)
USC has the SOS at 46th to 73rd and they have the talent, but Tulane’s defense is certainly better ranking 59th in success rate to USC at 127th.
Tulane has the net yards per play advantage at .68, but they haven’t quite had the schedule like USC has.
My pure power ratings have it at -7, but with the offensive line issues I would make it more at -4 if USC was motivated and healthy.
I also think that more opt outs are coming for USC like WR Jordan Addison and Tahj Washington so that would be really rough if that is the case.
If I am Kaleb Williams, I do not play this game because I have nothing really to gain by it. Lean Tulane.
Rose Bowl Game: Utah vs. Penn State +2 OU 52
Start Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Rose Bowl — Pasadena, Calif.
Utah: Motivation – High – It’s the Rose Bowl.
Penn State: Motivation – High – It’s the Rose Bowl.
Home Field: None
James Franklin, Penn State – 6-4
Kyle Whittingham, Utah – 10-5
Penn State
WR Parker Washington (Opt-out)
DL Rodney McGraw (Transfer portal)
CB Joey Porter Jr. (Opt-out)
Utah
RB Tavion Thomas (Opt-out)
TE Dalton Kincaid (Opt-out)
DB Malone Mataele (Transfer portal)
CB Clark Phillips III (Opt-out)
Both teams without their best pass catcher and their best cover corner.
Both strength of schedules about equal at 41 ish.
Penn State has a .4 net yards per play advantage.
Utah has the best unit on the field in their offense, but how much does it downgrade with Kincade out?
From a side perspective, who do you trust more? Franklin or Whittingham? Clifford or Rising?
I remember seeing Utah struggle against running quarterbacks over this year against Florida, UCLA, Oregon and USC until Williams got hurt. I think I see a lot of points here.
Over 52 – 2.5 stars
Monday, Jan. 9
College Football Playoff National Championship Game: TBD What is the teams and the spread?
No props today, but adding two more plays below. Love that we already got some CLV on the Nets’ game.
—
Nets -5.5 (-110), to win 3 units
Few NBA teams are further apart in momentum and stability than the Nets and the Hawks, and I have to go for a bigger unit win tonight because of it. The Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now; they won 9 straight and 13 of their last 14 games, and they’re averaging 124.3 ppg over that 9 game win streak. Easily the leader in true shooting and effective FG %, they’re waltzing into this contest with a solid 2 days rest, while the Hawks are off a back-to-back and another embarrassing loss to a team they should beat. No Clint Capela means far less rim protection and the Nets are absolutely KILLING teams in the mid-range. And even if Capela does return tonight, he’s not 100% with a calf strain and I don’t think anything can stop the Nets right now. Lately the Hawks have no chemistry, Trae Young’s struggles continue, and they’re devolving on both sides of the ball. All Nets for me in another smash spot, and a rare 3 unit play.
Bucks -4.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Bulls’ defense will feel like a high school team compared to what Giannis and the Bucks faced on Christmas. In a game where Milwaukee expects to win, because they expect to beat everyone in big spots, Boston put on the clamps and made life difficult for the Greek freak and his supporting cast. Giannis didn’t have a great shooting game on Christmas, nor did most of the starters not named Brook Lopez. Either way, Jrue Holiday should be on today and the Bucks have had 3 days to think about their mistakes. After three straight losses to elite Eastern Conference teams, Milwaukee will be facing no such opponent tonight. The Bucks owned Chicago last season, beating them 4 straight times in the regular season and booting them out of the playoffs swiftly 4-1 in the first round last year. The Bulls got their revenge at the beginning of this season but this should be a circled spot for Giannis to play downhill, aggressive basketball and attack a very soft front court of Chicago. Go Bucks!
Nuggets/Kings 1Q over 60.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Nuggets/Kings 1H over 121.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Nuggets offense started looking clunky and tired last night at Sacramento, and neither team really wanted to play defense. The Nuggets only had 31 points with 4 minutes left in the 2nd QTR, before they turned up the volume and started finally nailing some shots. Then we saw both offenses start to click in the second half. I love that rhythm to continue tonight. Both teams will continue to compete for “who’s the best offense” award and maybe some defense shows up in the second half, so we’ll go with the 1Q and 1H overs. Domantas Sabonis should return tonight, too, which is a major uptick for Sacramento’s offense.
The insanity continues– 23 points in the Knicks/Dallas game in the final minute to kill our under play, and the Grizz don’t show up at home against an injured rival.
What can ya do! Onto the next:
Nets -5.5 (-110), to win 3 units
Few NBA teams are further apart in momentum and stability than the Nets and the Hawks, and I have to go for a bigger unit win tonight because of it. The Nets are the hottest team in the NBA right now; they won 9 straight and 13 of their last 14 games, and they’re averaging 124.3 ppg over that 9 game win streak. Easily the leader in true shooting and effective FG %, they’re waltzing into this contest with a solid 2 days rest, while the Hawks are off a back-to-back and another embarrassing loss to a team they should beat. No Clint Capela means far less rim protection and the Nets are absolutely KILLING teams in the mid-range. And even if Capela does return tonight, he’s not 100% with a calf strain and I don’t think anything can stop the Nets right now. Lately the Hawks have no chemistry, Trae Young’s struggles continue, and they’re devolving on both sides of the ball. All Nets for me in another smash spot, and a rare 3 unit play.
Bucks -4.5 (-110), to win 2 units
The Bulls’ defense will feel like a high school team compared to what Giannis and the Bucks faced on Christmas. In a game where Milwaukee expects to win, because they expect to beat everyone in big spots, Boston put on the clamps and made life difficult for the Greek freak and his supporting cast. Giannis didn’t have a great shooting game on Christmas, nor did most of the starters not named Brook Lopez. Either way, Jrue Holiday should be on today and the Bucks have had 3 days to think about their mistakes. After three straight losses to elite Eastern Conference teams, Milwaukee will be facing no such opponent tonight. The Bucks owned Chicago last season, beating them 4 straight times in the regular season and booting them out of the playoffs swiftly 4-1 in the first round last year. The Bulls got their revenge at the beginning of this season but this should be a circled spot for Giannis to play downhill, aggressive basketball and attack a very soft front court of Chicago. Go Bucks!
Probably more plays coming but get these two in now!
This should be a fun game to watch as Big East conference play kicks off. Boh temas play pretty fast pace basketball with Seton Hall ranking 79th in average possession length to Marquette ranking 15th! So why the low total then? Well, Marquette has a decent defense ranking 62nd in efficiency while Seton Hall ranks 20th on defense. The big thing for me is that when Seton Hall stepped up in class, they have allowed 77 points to Oklahoma, 72 to Xavier, 91 to Kansas, and 71 to providence. The only games they performed ok in were neutral sites allowing 68 to Memphis and shutting Rutgers down away when the Scarlet Knights were injured. I think that Seton Halls defense is fake news, and this game plays fast enough to hit the over, but I do not trust Seton Hall’s scoring as much as the Golden Eagles. Take the team total here.
Let’s end this CFB season in the motherfuckin black!
CFB Bowl Game Picks (50-45-7, -1.25 units):
Oklahoma St/Wisconsin under 45 (-110), to win 1 unit
Without Spencer Sanders, the OK State offense takes a huge hit. Against an offense that’s not prolific in any sense, I expect the Cowboys to play ball control, run the ball, and attempt to play keep-away from the Badgers. And that’s all Wisconsin does is play conservative, keep-away football. Checks out as a slower paced, low-scoring affair.
Maryland ML (-105), to win 1.5 units
In games where competition is relatively even, the Terps have played really well this year. NC State is in a state of flux right now, while this game probably means more to a MD team that has way more explosive potential on offense, particularly through their passing game. If the Wolfpack show up lifeless at all, and I think they might, Maryland can take advantage and then it’ll be tough for NC State to catch up. Go Terps!
UCLA -5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I don’t necessarily trust my numbers all the time, especially not in college football, but the UCLA Bruins are considerably more talented than Pitt, in my opinion. This should be a 7-8 point spread, especially since it looks like Dorian Thompson-Robinson is playing. Pitt could take advantage of UCLA’s lackluster pass defense, but then again can they? Probably not, since there’s nothing exceptional about their own passing attack. With several key defensive players missing, I love the Bruins to take home this prize with ease.
Notre Dame -2.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
We’ve seen the Irish grow and grow into a formidable outfit this season, on both sides of the ball, while the ol’ Gamecocks are sort of this pedestrian, middle of the road SEC team who can take advantage of teams in a letdown spot. This is no such spot for the Irish. I think this game and this season means a lot to Marcus Freeman and the growth of their team, while SC probably isn’t as excited or motivated, especially they sort of already won their championship by beating two top teams in the SEC to finish their season. The Irish cover.
Alabama -6.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Bryce Young and his supporting cast are suiting up for one final time, for the pride of their program, and I think that’s “all she wrote” for this contest. Kansas State is talented on both sides of the ball but this is shaping up to be a Bama-statement-game and I’d rather not be on the other side of that just to try and feel sharp. Not overthinking it– Bama wins easy.
Michigan -7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Wolverines might be the best team in the country and I don’t expect their elevated level of play to come to a halt in the final two games of their season. Now that Michigan’s offense has explosive potential, the talent disparity and opportunities for Michigan to pull ahead should be too much for a Cinderella team like TCU to overcome.
Georgia -6.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I said long before the Ohio State-Michigan game that I’m unimpressed by the Buckeyes and that remains true. Georgia has been able to assert themselves in the most impressive way all season when they’re in a big game and this is the definition of that, since Ohio State-Georgia is what many had to be the final game of the CFB season. Ohio State’s all-world speed and talent still isn’t consistent enough and I’m not a CJ Stroud believer. I am a believer in Stetson Bennett, who’s been with the Bulldogs since 2019, and a defense that proved it’s as close to an NFL unit as any unit in CFB this season Ohio State disappoints, again, and Georgia remains undefeated.
Purdue +15 (-110), to win 1 unit
Purdue had a great finish to their season before a predictable loss to Michigan at the end, but this is a team that can hang in games and hurt you with a dynamic passing attack. Brian Kelly is a great shit-the-bed coach, I’ve seen it plenty before in his stint with the Irish, and 15 points is way too many in a game that might mean a lot more to the Boilermakers.
USC -2 (-110), to win 2 units
All I needed to see was that Caleb Williams expects to play, and the value is with USC. I’m sure this game with be closer than we expect, but USC’s potent passing attack and while the Green Wave has its own degree of potency on offense, I don’t think they’ll have the talent to score at will like the Trojans should be able to in this matchup. Tulane’s sack-rate is what really concerns me (100th in the country), which will give Williams plenty of time to slice and dice their sub-optimal secondary. USC or nothing for me.
Sorry all – busy busy with the holidays, had to bring back my son this morning, you know how it is. Things will feel more normal starting tomorrow. Shorter write ups today so I can just get these out.
Like a few plays today:
Raptors TT over 111.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Clippers are on a back to back and Kawhi will be back tonight– which is just as much a good thing for their offense as it is for their defense. Toronto seems to have found their groove and they’ve lost a few games in a row at home. This is a great spot, off 4 days rest, for them to take advantage and attack a tired Clippers’ defense. Toronto stays at home all week– great spot for them to show off a renewed attack with a much, MUCH healthier roster.
Grizzlies -8 (-110), to win 2 units
All of the most important perimeter scorers for Phoenix are out tonight (Booker, Payne, Shamet, Johnson) and this game sets up fantastically well for the Grizzlies, at home, after a tough defeat against the Warriors on Christmas. This is a nice revenge spot after that bad loss, and they’re as healthy as they’ve been all season. Go Grizz!
Knicks/Mavs under 219 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Knicks and Mavs are playing at the slowest pace in the NBA right now over their last 5 games and Dallas, without some key offensive contributors, is winning games by limiting second-chance opportunities for other offenses and playing methodical, technically sound basketball. Brunson also has a quad injury, which is the single biggest threat to a Knicks’ high scoring night. If he’s out or even if he’s in because he won’t be 100%, we love that for more defense, less pace and less points. Going under.
Might be best to focus on dome teams this late in the year.
Key Injuries:
TE Hunter Henry is day to day.
TE Jonnu Smith with a concussion might miss next week.
QB Mike White is cleared for contact this week.
WR Christian Watson has a hip injury.
TE Greg Dulcich was ruled out with a hammy.
QB Tua Tagovailoa is in concussion protocol.
QB Justin Fields vs the Lions with a shoulder is questionable.
Waiver Wire:
TE Eric Saubert for the Dulcich injury could be a streamer.
WR Romeo Doubs for the Watson injury is big.
WR Randall Cobb might play a big part this week vs the Vikings.
TE Tyler Higbee was massive last week and only owned in 65% of leagues.
WR Kendrick Bourne had 9 targets, a TD and 29 rushing yards.
TE Shane Zylstra from Detroit had 3 touchdowns.
WR Isaiah Hodgins had 11 targets and a TD for the Giants.
WR Greg Dortch had 11 targets and 3 rushes for the Cardinals.
QB Teddy Bridgewater for the Tua injury.
Non Starters trending up for Week 17
RB JK Dobbins vs the Steelers could be big this week.
RB Jamycal Hasty for Jacksonville is huge vs the Texans. Jacksonville could rest their guys potentially. They could win this game, lose vs the Titans and still not make wild card.
RB Cam Akers vs the Chargers could be big this week.
RB David Montgomery vs the Lions is big.
QB Justin Fields vs the Lions is good.
QB Jared Goff vs the Bears D is great.
TE Shane Zylstra vs the Bears is solid.
RB Jamaal Williams vs the Bears is huge.
QB Mike White vs the Seahawks D.
WR Amon Ra St Brown vs the Bears is gold.
WR Romeo Doubs vs the Vikings.
WR KJ Osborn vs the Packers is good.
QB Baker Mayfield vs the Chargers is huge.
Busts:
QB Kirk Cousins vs the Packers is dangerous here.
QB Geno Smith vs the Jets might be rough.
RB Derek Henry vs the Cowboys could bust.
RB Miles Sanders vs the Saints isn’t looking great.
RB Josh Jacobs vs San Francisco isn’t looking good.
RB Kareem Hunt vs Washington isn’t looking good.
RB Nick Chubb vs Washington is also bad.
Nasty Sleeper: Amon Ra St Brown vs the Bears D! His Brother plays for the Bears.
We have a great show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend of sports! First, Kiev get’s into a schedule change coming for College basketball 2023! Then, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Next, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for NFL week 17! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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I’m off to a 3-2, +1.35u start in Bowl Season! I’m rolling with 4 plays up until December 29th and will be back in a few days with the rest of my bowl plays through January 2nd.
*CFB(1u): Coastal Carolina/East Carolina OVER 64–12/27 5:45 PM CT
This matchup features two below average secondaries, and I think each offense is equipped to take advantage.
Coastal Carolina QB Grayson McCall will play in this game before finding a new home at the Power 5 level. Quite frankly, I think the world of McCall. He features a 12:1 TD/INT ratio and has thrown for over 9 Y/A here in 2022. Coastal Carolina is traditionally a spread option offense, but with HC Jamie Chadwell off to Liberty, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see the Chants lean more towards the pass in their season finale. That would be the smart move in this matchup given ECU’s clear strength defensively is going up against the run while they have allowed over 8 Y/A through the air on 9 separate occasions this year.
East Carolina’s offense will succeed in this game because they are centered around star RB Keaton Mitchell. The Sophomore ran for over 1300 yards this year at nearly 7.5 YPC and shined even in his more difficult matchups. The Chants have been mostly good against the run by Sun Belt standards, but they’ve also been inconsistent enough to where I have little faith they will halt the Pirates on the ground. ECU QB Holton Ahlers is far from a world beater(7.9 Y/A), but he does boast a 23:5 TD/INT ratio and is certainly capable of taking advantage of this weak Chants secondary.
I don’t expect either QB to be under much duress, and I expect each to connect on explosive plays rather easily in this matchup. This game gets played in the upper 60’s at least.
*CFB(1u): Kansas/Arkansas OVER 69–12/28 4:30 PM CT
I typically wouldn’t be willing to play an Over at this number when one team’s objective(Kansas) will be to slow this game to a standstill. However, the defensive issues on each side are that extreme, and each offense is well equipped to take advantage.
Kansas has a very repeatable path to success offensively. This OL has allowed just 8 sacks all season and have paved the way for RB Devin Neal to run for over 6 YPC this season. QB’s Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean were both throwing for over 9 Y/A late in the season before Daniels struggled upon his return from injury; with a full month to prepare, I expect Daniels to look quite sharp against this Razorbacks defense. Arkansas had its top two LB’s opt out to prepare for the NFL Draft, and their Back 7 struggled tremendously all season. They allowed over 500 yards on the ground to Ole Miss late in the year and really just have a lack of quality talent in their secondary. Kansas might run slow, but this is still an offense that put up 35 or more on 5 seperate Power 5 opponents this year; there’s a reason the Jayhawks rank 9th in yards/play.
With KJ Jefferson healthy, I LOVE this Razorbacks offense. RB Rocket Sanders ran for over 1400 yards this year at 6.5 YPC, and Jefferson is a true dual-threat QB(8.7 Y/A through the air, over 500 yards on the ground). The Razorbacks might be thin at WR at the moment, but I don’t expect it to matter going up against a truly terrible Kansas defense. The Jayhawks allowed 47 PPG over their last 3 games and, like Arkansas, feature a Back 7 that is vulnerable against the run and pass. Unlike Kansas, Arkansas will run with a good amount of pace in this matchup.
I struggle to see a path to stops for either one of these defenses, and each of these offenses are equipped to take advantage. Over is the play.
*CFB(1u): Oregon TT OVER 44 vs North Carolina–12/28 7 PM CT
Oregon’s offense vs North Carolina’s defense is perhaps the biggest mismatch we’ll see this bowl season.
Oregon will win at the line of scrimmage at an elite rate in this matchup; the Ducks have allowed just 4 sacks all season, while UNC’s biggest struggle defensively has been their inability to get pressure on the QB. Along with that, UNC’s secondary is utterly atrocious. Over their last 3 games, UNC has been beaten by Georgia Tech’s 3rd string QB, NC State’s 4th string QB, and Clemson’s freshman QB with zero experience. Bo Nix is a true dual threat(8.9 Y/A as a passer, 6 YPC as a runner) that will absolutely feast in this matchup. Give UNC credit for improving against the run over the course of the season, but with 3 separate 6 YPC guys to defend(including Nix), I have a hard time seeing the Ducks get held down on the ground. Pace will be on our side here as both teams like to use tempo to their advantage.
I would lean heavily towards Oregon -14.5 as well, but I want to isolate the matchup I feel best about and not worry about a potential one-man effort from UNC QB Drake Maye. The Ducks have been one of the most consistent and explosive offenses in the country all year; I see no reason why that stops against this pungent UNC defense.
*CFB(1u): Minnesota -10 vs Syracuse–12/29 1 PM CT
I’ve loved backing this Minnesota team all year, particularly when they’re expected to win by margin against a clearly inferior opponent. We all know the Gophers have a Top 10 defense in the country that is particularly staunch against the run, but this offense is significantly undervalued as well.
Veteran QB Tanner Morgan has flirted with returning from injury to play this game, but I’m comfortable laying 10 with the Gophers if Athan Kaliakmanis is needed again. Both QB’s are at or over 8.5 Y/A on the season, and the Gophers are able to run the ball against anybody with their physical front and bellcow RB Mo Ibrahim. Syracuse is without their Top 2 cover corners for this game, taking away from what was previously the strength of this defense. Their Front 7 has not stepped up well against physical fronts and effective run games like Minnesota will feature(think Notre Dame and Florida State).
Syracuse will be without arguably their most talented player in RB Sean Tucker. Tucker didn’t have the year we expected due to having to run behind a pretty weak OL; with him not available, I think Minnesota will be rather dominant going up against the run. Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader was a huge surprise this season(8.7 Y/A), but I do think his overall numbers are misleading. He padded his stats with great games against UCONN, Wagner, Boston College, and Wake Forest, but he also proved to be ineffective against Purdue, Notre Dame, and Florida State. Minnesota’s secondary is good but not great, but with the other stark advantages they hold on this side of the ball, I think it’ll be more than enough.
