I imagine most of you woke up to a very friendly 234-235 total for Boston/Atlanta, so we’ll list our bet as under 234 as common ground. Just updating everyone:
Celtics/Hawks under 234 (-110), to win 1.5 units
College Football Week 12 Betting Spots
Let Down Spots:
- TCU at Baylor is possible after they beat up Texas.
- Vanderbilt hosting Florida after finally getting an SEC win vs Kentucky.
- Iowa at Minnesota after beating rival Wisconsin.
- UCF hosting Navy after beating Tulane is possible.
Get Up Spots:
- UCLA hosting USC can play the spoiler.
- Texas at Kansas needs to save face after that TCU loss.
- Tulane hosting SMU after the brutal UCF loss.
Look Ahead Spots:
- Michigan looking past Illinois to Ohio State is very possible.
- Ohio State looking past Maryland to Michigan is possible.
- LSU could look past UAB to Texas A&M next week. Yikes!
Fantasy Football Week 11
Bye weeks: Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks, and Buccaneers
Key Injuries
- TE Zach Ertz with a knee.
- WR Jerry Jeudy with an ankle injury week .
- RB Khalil Herbert with a hip.
- WR JuJu Smith Schuster with a concussion. Week to week.
- WR Cooper Kupp with a high ankle sprain.
- RB Leonard Fournette with a hip injury.
Waiver Wire:
- WR Christian Watson only owned in 9% of leagues is a must pickup.
- QB Matt Ryan has new life
- WR Kadarious Toney is a must own and could turn into someone like a Tyreke Hill if he keeps playing like last week.
- WR Nico Collins for Houston is the number 1 I feel.
- RB Rachaad White for the Fournette injury is huge.
- RB Trestan Ebner for the Khalil Herbert injury.
- RB Kyren Williams from the Rams.
- WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine looked good vs the Broncos.
- WR Van Jefferson for the Kupp Injury.
Non-Starters trending up for week 11:
- WR Kadarious Tony vs the Chargers D will be good.
- WR Darnell Mooney vs the bad Atlanta secondary is big.
- WR Christian Watson vs the Titans could be big.
- WR Isaiah McKenzie vs the Browns might be good.
- WR Tee Higgens vs the Steelers will be huge.
- WR Darious Slayton vs the Lions is good.
- RB Brian Robinson vs the Texans is a good matchup.
- WR Drake London vs the Bears horrible secondary is huge.
Busts:
- RB AJ Dillon vs the Titans isn’t a good matchup.
- RB Devonte Foreman vs the Ravens is ugly.
- RB Nick Chubb vs the Bills is yikes.
- RB James Conner vs the 49ers is rough.
- WR Michael Pittman vs the Eagles is rough.
- QB Ryan Tannehill vs Green Bay is dangerous.
- QB Kurt Cousins vs the Cowboys is suspect.
Nasty Sleeper: Kadarious Tony vs the Chargers
College Football Week 11 Misleading Final Scores
Akron’s yards vs Eastern Michigan were garbage time.
Buffalo out-gained Central Michigan 431 to 420 yet lost 31-27. Equal turnovers and bad red zone killed the Bulls.
East Carolina out-gained Cincinnati 454 to 310 yet lost 27-25. They even won the turnover margin 1-0, but very bad special teams efficiency got them.
Oklahoma out-gained West Virginia 426 to 406 and lost 23-20. They won the turnover battle 2-0 but 1-11 third down conversions killed them.
Navy’s yards were garbage time vs Notre Dame.
Liberty out-gained Uconn 474 to 318 yet lost 36-33. Bad special teams and explosive plays put the freeze on Hugh Freeze.
Georgia State out-gained ULM 535 to 300 yet lost 31-28. A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad red zone efficiency hurt them.
Wisconsin out-gained Iowa 227 to 146 yet lost 24-10. Horrible QB play by Mertz and bad special teams turnover got them.
Temple out-gained Houston 533 to 485 yet lost 43-36. They won the turnover battle 2-1 but time of possession and the fact that they couldn’t stop the run hurt them bad.
Iowa State out-gained Oklahoma State 333 to 244 yet lost 20-14. A 5-2 turnover ratio and horrible red zone got them.
Ole Miss out-gained Alabama 402 to 317 yet lost 30-24. Equal turnover at 1-1 but bad 4th down efficiency 0-3 hurt them.
Charlotte out-gained MTSU 383 to 306 yet lost 24-14. Equal 2-2 turnovers but bad red zone and 4th down efficiency 1-4.
Army out-gained Troy 357 to 264 yet lost 10-9. Option team weirdness and the usual bad red zone got them.
Oregon out-gained Washington 592 to 522 yet lost 37-34. Equal turnovers at 1-1, but poor coaching kicking that Filed goal in the 4th quarter got them.
Kansas out-gained Texas Tech 525 to 510 yet lost 43-28. A 2-0 turnover ratio hurt them.
Colorado state out-gained Wyoming 372 to 236 yet lost 14-13. A 2-1 turnover ratio and bad red zone efficiency hurt the Rams.
Hawaii’s yards were mainly garbage time.
NBA Amended Premiums, 11.16
Well I’m up late, can’t sleep, and obviously pretty fucking pissed about the Tuesday night results and how we fared. And unlike the many robotic dorks in this industry, I actually give a fuck and feel the pain when I lose units for your guys.
Onto the next —
Celtics/Hawks under 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This checks out as a game that’ll have a playoff-like feel. Both teams are top 10 in defensive efficiency over their last 5 games and both teams are playing some damn good basketball. I also like how they match up with each other defensively, length against length and physical players on both rosters. No team shoots and makes more 3 pointers than the Boston Celtics but the Hawks are 2nd in the NBA at defending the 3, allowing only 32% from beyond the arc. The Hawks much prefer to shoot from the mid-range or in closer proximity to the basket– they’re a 2-point shooting team that wants to go to the foul line– and Boston is easily one of the best paint defenses in the NBA. It’s strength vs. strength and both teams are humming so this should be very contentious. Give me the under.
Bulls/Pelicans over 226.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
A lot to like about this over. Chicago’s defense has regressed tremendously, they’re a bottom 5 unit the last 5 games, and they allowed this very same Pelicans team to score 115 points against them a few nights ago EVEN THO the Pels only hit 16% from beyond the arc. That’s wild. The Bulls have also increased their pace and without Zion, the Pelicans were crazy explosive and high-tempo last night against Memphis. If Zion plays fine, even more scoring opportunities and the Bulls can’t stop the big boy. Love the over.
Nuggets 1H -4.5 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Nuggets 1Q ML (Odds Not Out), to win 1 unit
Knicks/Nuggets 1H over 117 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
Fortunately we can cancel the 1H play since the 1H lines aren’t out yet. Jokic just got COVID so we can’t bet on the full half, but we’ll look to bet on the over in the 1H instead. Jokic actually didn’t contribute to the Nuggets’ last win very much, so they got a practice run in for what they want to do. Regardless, I like them to run fast without their big boy in the paint. Denver’s lineup just got smaller, and the Knicks just played hard last night in a win (to our detriment). The first thing to go in back to back games is usually defense. No team scores more points in the 1st QTR than Denver and I think a more spry unit can run them off the floor early. NYK got a big win last night but this won’t be so easy. I think we see points and early success for Denver.
Raptors +1.5 (-110), to win 2 units
I think Gary Trent Jr. and Freddie Van Fleet will be back tomorrow. Both are questionable, so I’m counting at least one being in. That’ll make a big difference against Miami. The Heat have been on one hell of a run at home but going to Toronto is a different story. According to reports, Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Dedmon are questionable for Miami, and Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, and Omer Yurtseven have all been ruled out. At home, Toronto is a top 5 offense, a top 10 net rating team, a top 5 rebounding and assist team, and they don’t turn the ball over. Nick Nurse is among the best coaches in the NFL and Miami is due for regression or maybe even a full sitting of their bench. Take the Raptors when this comes out.
Warriors ML (+105), to win 1.57 units
I think this could be one of those games where the Warriors put it all together. Their defense, assist ratio, effective field goal percentage and net rating has been top 5 in the last 5 games. They’re starting to hum and Chris Paul will be cold if he comes back and plays. It’s also a revenge spot. Go Dub-Nation! Not overthinking it.
Early NBA Premiums, 11.16
I’ll be away from home tomorrow morning so sending out some plays now. Might be more to come around lunch time tomorrow, may not be.
These lines might not be out at most books yet but they will be soon.
Celtics/Hawks under 232.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This checks out as a game that’ll have a playoff-like feel. Both teams are top 10 in defensive efficiency over their last 5 games and both teams are playing some damn good basketball. I also like how they match up with each other defensively, length against length and physical players on both rosters. No team shoots and makes more 3 pointers than the Boston Celtics but the Hawks are 2nd in the NBA at defending the 3, allowing only 32% from beyond the arc. The Hawks much prefer to shoot from the mid-range or in closer proximity to the basket– they’re a 2-point shooting team that wants to go to the foul line– and Boston is easily one of the best paint defenses in the NBA. It’s strength vs. strength and both teams are humming so this should be very contentious. Give me the under.
Nuggets 1Q -2.5 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Nuggets 1H -4.5 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
BRUTAL spot for the Knicks off a back to back and Denver will be off a solid 3 days of rest. It’s a pretty unfair scheduling spot but we need to take advantage. The Nuggets are playing at a high level and they score a lot of points early. They also shoot the 3 ball better than 28 other teams in the NBA. They could quickly gain margin on a tired Knicks team at home, especially with their newly found faster pace and top 5 marks in offensive efficiency and assists. I love Denver early.
Raptors +1.5 (-110), to win 2 units
I think Gary Trent Jr. and Freddie Van Fleet will be back tomorrow. Both are questionable, so I’m counting at least one being in. That’ll make a big difference against Miami. The Heat have been on one hell of a run at home but going to Toronto is a different story. According to reports, Bam Adebayo and Dewayne Dedmon are questionable for Miami, and Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo, and Omer Yurtseven have all been ruled out. At home, Toronto is a top 5 offense, a top 10 net rating team, a top 5 rebounding and assist team, and they don’t turn the ball over. Nick Nurse is among the best coaches in the NFL and Miami is due for regression or maybe even a full sitting of their bench. Take the Raptors when this comes out.
Laying the Points with FarleyBets: NFL Week 11 with David Laferriere and Michael Neubert
Contest-winner and pro handicapper Chris Farley is back to talk NFL Week 11! This week he’s joined by the co-founders of Sports Wagering University, David Laferriere and Michael Neubert! Three buddies just breaking down a full week of NFL action!
Want Chris’ premium picks? Well, you should probably consider it. Chris started off his NBA season white hot, up nearly 7 units and hitting at 58% out the gate. He also had a big week in NFL Week 10 and historically, the second half of the season is where he does best! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
- 2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
- Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
- 2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
- Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
- Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency
Mac-Tion picks, 11.15
Hey All! We’re almoooosttt in the black, finally, in this CFB season, as we’ve been winning a lot more the past few weeks. Let’s see if we can nail some MAC-tion tonight!
CFB Week 12 Picks (42-39-7, -1.15 units):
Ohio -3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Ohio Bobcats are in position to win the MAC East and they would clinch it with a win tonight. Ohio has a juggernaut passing offense (in the MAC, at least), but they’re not very good at defending the pass. That’s okay, because Ball State has one of the worst passing offenses in the country, averaging only 5.9 yards per pass and throwing for under 60% this season. Ohio should be able to sustain offense and eventually it becomes too much. Love that this line moved down for us.
Bowling Green +17 (-110), to win 1 unit
Toledo will probably win at home today and clinch their spot in the MAC Championship game, but Bowling Green is 2-0 on the road in-conference and they’re a feisty team. At 4-2 in-conference, the Falcons are just one of those teams that play up or down to their competition. They also have a stingy, bend-don’t-break defense when the going gets tough, and I love that they’re ranked 13th nationally in red-zone defense. They’ll permit Toledo to score, but not enough that it’s a complete blowout. In a season that won’t amount to much, the Bowling Green Falcons would love nothing more than to knock off their rival before they proceed to bigger things.
NBA Premiums, 11.15
Getting so sick of these 2-2 days, borrriiiinnggg. Let’s have a clear winning day. Like a lot today in the NBA, perhaps a little over-exposed, but we have to trust our gut.
Also – will look at CBB and CFB today, although no promises! Depends on how much time I have; Tuesday is usually my NFL capping day.
NBA Picks, 11.15 (45-34-1, +6.79 units):
Grizzlies/Pelicans 1H over 111.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Grizzlies tend to allow more points and score more points in the first half. We’ve seen that in the 1H of their last 5 games in particular, with most of those halves going into the 100-teens and their totals near or over 60. The Pelicans are a faster-paced team in general, and Desmond Bane, one of the most important defensive bodies for the Grizzlies, is doubtful for tonight’s game. Grizzlies games have slowed down tremendously in the 2nd half so I don’t want to take the full game. First half, over.
Knicks/Jazz over 229.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Jazz 1H -2 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Jazz -4 (-115), to win 1 unit
Here I go with another damn over but I’m sorry, it just makes too much sense. Offensively the Jazz match up very well with the Knicks, who are allowing more points and more rebounds than 28 other teams. These are two top 5 teams in pace over the last 5 games and I don’t see that changing tonight. The Jazz have also been very good at home and they’re showing way more chemistry than the Knicks, who are beginning to look clumsy and they can seemingly only beat bad teams. The Jazz have been a juggernaut at home, beating teams by an average margin of 13.8 ppg. In the first halves of those games, they out-scored their opponent by an average margin of 12.4 ppg. That’s pretty astounding, and I’m going to trust that both continue.
Spurs TT under 108 or more (-110), to win 1.5 units
Blazers Alt line -10 (+125), to win 1.25 units
I tried to find a way to bet on this game because it’s such a horrible spot for San Antonio. This will be their 4th game in 6 days and they’re fresh off a dud of a performance against the Warriors last night, dropping only 95 points at Golden State. The Blazers are coming off a solid 3 days of rest and their defense has been top 10 all season. They move at the slowest pace in the NBA and since they’re fresh and able to play the kind of game they want, I think they can control this contest at home. If Nurkic is out that isn’t ideal, but the Spurs are a smaller team and I’m not sure if he’ll be as essential for their win. The Blazers tend to control tempo when they’re in a good spot, with games ending around 200 points most of the time. I trust that it’ll stay lower scoring and I think the Blazers, fresh off a 4-2 road trip and riding momentum as one of the best teams in the West, can obliterate San Antonio at home. Alt line, activated.
Podcast 79 – 22 – College Football Week 11 and NFL Week 10 Recap – Fantasy Football Week 11 – Sports Betting
We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college and NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the good, the bad and the ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 12! Finally, D-Nasty is back and the boys get into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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