We have a small slate tonight with only four games taking place across the NHL. I offer my best bets of the night along with a few player props to target.
Pick(s):
St. Louis Blues/ Colorado Avalanche over 6.0 (-115) – DraftKings/ PointsBet
Risk 0.29 to win 0.25 Units
The Blues have had a less-than-ideal start to the season. They’ve struggled in all areas ranking near the bottom in offense and defense. Their starting goaltender Jordan Binnington hasn’t been great either with a -2.7 GSAx through ten games. However, they recently snapped their eight-game losing streak over the weekend and have won their last two. Their offense has looked much better in those two games and will face a depleted Colorado defensive unit tonight.
Just like St. Louis, Colorado started off the season slow. However, that high-flying offense that we’ve known to associate with this team has returned. In their last four games, they’ve averaged 5 goals for per game. St. Louis is dead last in goals against and has a few key injuries on their blue line. Despite having a 7-1-1 record, Alexander Georgiev has a 2.66 GAA. He’s also allowed three or more goals in his last four starts.
With both of these teams offensives coming to life in the past few games and their defensive unit’s limited, I like this game to go over. When you combine those two factors with the sub-par goaltending we’ve seen out of these two starters, I expect this game to turn into a track meet.
Player Props to Target:
Evan Rodrigues over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+120)
He’s gone over this number in three of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 SOG and over 6.2 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in each of his last three games. The Blues rank 18th in SOG allowed per game.
Tim Stutzle over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+110)
He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.6 SOG and over 6.8 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Islanders rank 19th in SOG allowed per game.
Martin Necas over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-160)
He’s gone over this number in three of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 3.2 SOG and over 5.4 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. The Blackhawks rank 29th in SOG allowed per game.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Well I feel abused. Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen were late scratches yesterday, giving the Cavs little chance to overcome a Minnesota team in need of a win. And our DEN/CHI total lost by one point….
Onto Monday!
Hornets (+105), to win 1.05 units
Hornets/Magic over 224 (-110), to win 1 unit
LaMelo Ball returned against the Heat and made an immediate impact, but Miami was just too much. An 8-game losing streak isn’t something to bat an eye at but LaMelo’s return is a significant uptick in team-chemistry for a Hornets team that had little rhythm to speak of. The ball movement and explosiveness of their offense improved as soon as he got on the floor, although as usual he took way too many threes and only made one (1/9, to be exact). Charlotte as a whole took way too many 3s and only shot 29% overall, that should change tonight. I think the Hornets finally get a W. The Magic are playing better as a team, posting a top-10 offensive rating in their last three contests. Like the over, too.
Thunder +12 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Thunder are playing good basketball right now and we can’t turn our heads at this massive of a line. Josh Giddey is making a difference game to game, cleaning up on boards and contributing 5-10 assists per game since his return. I just really like the ball movement and chemistry of OKC, a team that doesn’t seem to care about tanking for Victor W or any other big signing. The Celtics are playing near-perfect basketball right now, but this is also a really sleepy, weird spot for Boston at home, sandwiched between some important road games ahead (Atlanta, New Orleans, Chicago). Thunder cover.
Play on Giannis PAR over anything at 50 or less, if available:
The Bucks are injured as hell but they’ll want to win against the hawks in a revenge game at home. Atlanta handed them their first loss. As long as Giannis plays, look for a dominant performance. This is not an official play, just a recommendation.
Spurs/Warriors over 232.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Golden State games just feel very predictable (jinx alert) from a totals perspective right now. They’re running at a fast pace, and even faster at home, and their defense still hasn’t caught up yet. The Spurs facilitate the ball really well and run at a tempo equivalent to the Warriors’ average this season (102+ possessions per game) when they’re on the road. San Antonio is also one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA right now, shooting around 38%. This feels like a fast-paced, fun game between two good perimeter shooting teams in a game where the Warriors should win and should keep the pace high.
Got a few Sunday plays, after all. Hopefully weird Sunday shit doesn’t happen.
Cavs -5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Two teams going in opposite directions but the Cavs have fallen lately, too. They’re in a much better spot at home and I trust their defense. The T-Wolves? Not so much. They look really clunky and inefficient and the whole twin-tower-concept just isn’t working. Donovan Mitchell probably goes off against his former teammate and the Cavs cover, bringing more alarms to Minnesota and their new roster.
Nuggets/Bulls over 229.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Nuggets’ totals are averaging 233 ppg in their last 6. The Bulls are off extended rest. Chicago’s defense is terribly inconsistent and Denver’s defense is starting to regress, again, as they usually do every season. Both are playing at a fast pace and playing with more chemistry and offensive efficiency. Sign me up for an over.
The Mike McCarthy revenge game! Or is it the Aaron Rogers revenge game for McCarthy holding them back? Or maybe it’s the Dez Bryant, not a catch revenge game when the NFL had the rule that some catches that looked exactly like a catch were not catches depending on how you interpret the process of the catch during the actual catch rule. Anyways, I have to ask myself, what this line would be if the Cowboys were at Washington, or Arizona, or the Steelers, because all three of those teams that I have listed line up about the same metrically as the Green Bay packers. Now throw in that the Packers are without their best WR in Romeo Dobbs, their second best corner in Eric Stokes, their best pass rusher in Rashaan Gary and they have Jones and Watson questionable.
Take the Cowboys -4.5 – 2 stars
Lions vs Bears -2.5 O/U 48.5
This number keeps bouncing back and forth here. I think at the beginning of the season, the Lions were a clear better team than Chicago, but as the year progressed, Chicago has probably caught up. Now, the Lions coming off the big win vs the Packers might call for a little bit of a let down, but they are also getting healthier. Think what you want about the side, but I honestly can’t see why this total isn’t over 51 points right here. The lions are number 4 in red zone touchdown percentage and top 6 in yards per play on offense. The Bears are top 8 in EPA per play over the past 3 weeks and now they have more weapons with Claypool. Both the Bears and the Lions defenses are bottom 4 in the league. I checked the Weather for this game and it shows sunshine with normal wind. Take the over. But I will say that it feels way too easy for some reason.
Over 48.5 – 2 stars
Teaser: From Pod Seattle to +9 with Denver to +9 but if you didn’t get that, Take Denver to +9 with the 49ers to -1.5 – 2 stars
Well there’s nothing like going to bed when the bet the over on two NBA teams who scored 135 points in the first fucking half. I was wrong about the Celtics and Nuggets but I wasn’t wrong about Memphis and Minnesota. How the hell do you only score 82 points in the two proceeding quarters? Unreal.
The NBA is every day so we can’t allow ourselves to get TOO pissed off but my goodness, feels like we almost exclusively lose because of BS like that. Onto Saturday in the NBA and our CFB and UFC picks are below, too.
NBA Picks (41-28-1, +10.54 units):
Nets/Clippers over 212.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
I have this total at 218 and I’d take it up to 215. I realize the Nets have been playing better defense and that the Clippers can absolutely clamp down and limit good offenses, but both teams are coming off enough rest and I like how explosive and efficient the Nets’ offense has been. You could say the same about the Clippers. LAC has averaged 113.75 pts in their last four wins and they’re 11th in offensive efficiency over their last 5 games. The Nets are 10th. The Clippers are playing faster, too, which could affect and stimulate the scoring. One of these quarters or halves will probably be pretty low scoring, but I think it ultimately gets close to 220 with some great shot-making from Durant and Paul George.
Celtics/Pistons under 225.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This is a regression play. Neither team shot very well in their last contest but they both played with pace and could evidently care less about any sort of defense. I don’t think that happens in this spot. Typically the second meeting looks a lot different and even better, Detroit’s number 1 scorer Cade Cunningham isn’t 100%. This total should drop significantly at some point in the contest. I’d take it down to 222.
Raptors/Pacers over 229.5 (-110), to win 2 units
Welp, here we go with another 2 unit totals play. These are the teams the Raptors dominate offensively. They’re too big, too long, and they can still run the floor with a team like Indiana. We saw it in big wins against the Hawks, Rockets, and Spurs, and the Pacers fit the same profile. Thing is, Indiana is off 3 days of rest, at home, and they love to run with pace. This line is weird or else I’d normally take Toronto, but it looks like they might be sitting a few key figures. Doesn’t matter. The players are all built with the same mentality and Toronto as a roster has size advantages all over.
76ers -3 (-110), to win 1 unit
Revenge game at home; let’s not overthink it. Atlanta is way better on their own court and not so much when they face good teams on the road. And the 76ers NEED this game. They’re 5-7 and they’ve lost 3 out of their last 4 games. Dropping a game to Phoenix is one thing; dropping two straight to an Atlanta team that’s not perfectly in-sync yet is another. Philly wins and covers at their home floor.
CFB Week 11 Picks (39-38-7, -4.05 units):
Army 1H under 9.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Army goes up against one of the best defenses in the nation, at Troy, and even though the Black Knights found success against lower level teams that can’t defend a high school team, the Troy Trojans aren’t that. Army’s inability to score points against above average defenses has been stark, scoring only 7 points against AF and 10 points against Wake Forest. I’m not sure if the Knights will get close to the endzone in this contest; that’s the reality we’re dealing with. I’ll take the Army TT under early, in case somehow they figure it out for the full game.
Marshall ML (EVEN), to win 1.5 units
Marshall only recently joined the Sunbelt conference but since they started facing App State, each team has won on their home field. It’s Marshall’s turn this year. The Thundering Herd are exceptional on defense, particularly against the run. They’re 4th nationally against the run, allowing only 2.9 yards per carry. App State still prefers to be a run-first team. Like most Sunbelt offenses, the Mountaineers have limitations and they need the run game to ignite their passing attack. I don’t think the Herd lets them get comfortable. Marshall can control the ball on the ground, they run the ball on 59% of their plays, and keep the game low scoring and close. We know that these home-field advantages can be deadly and this will be a tough crowd for the Mountaineers to overcome. Give me the Herd for 1.5 units.
Notre Dame -15.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Some people will say “Navy always plays Notre Dame close” but this is a neutral site game and the Irish should be able to control the ball with their defense and a growing offensive attack led by a dynamic rushing attack. Notre Dame has put up 40 ppg against better defenses than Navy the last 3 weeks and I’m not sure the Midshipmen will be able to score many points on ND’s defense. They’re starting to look more like the unit we saw in Week 1 against the Buckeyes. All ND for me.
TCU +7.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
This should probably be the the reckoning for TCU and I don’t think they’re the true #4 team in the country, but they should be feisty on Saturday. Texas is a better defensive team against the run which means the Horned Frogs potent passing attack should be able to stretch the field and free up some quick passes and trick-runs. Now that this is at +7.5, it’s passing into disrespectful territory and TCU will be plenty motivated to prove they can hang with a big dog like Texas.
UFC 281 (13-15, +10.38 units in 2022):
Ulberg/Negumereanu goes the distance (+150), to win 1.5 units
Carlos Puelles (+132), to win 1.32 units
Michael Chandler (+185), to win 1.85 units
Molly McCann by KO, TKO, or DQ (+650), to win 3.25 units
Alex Pereira to win by majority or split decision (+2200), to win 11 units
Last week I loved Liberty vs Arkansas and that money-line sprinkle was even nicer than the LSU one, but now it’s time to fade city. This is a bad spot for Liberty coming off such a massive win for the program and UCONN is waiting to make a statement on their own. This Huskie’s team under the leadership of Jim Mora isn’t exactly a juggernaut by any means, but they at least greatly improved from last year at -1.88 yards per play to just -.76 yards per play. Liberty on the other hand has only 1 loss this year in a close one to Wake Forest, but most of their schedule has been pretty easy and they are only a net positive .89 yards per play themsleves. Liberty wins with great defense, and that showed in the first half last week, but on offense they only rank 101st in success rate and 86th in offensive EPA. UCONN has already had some big wins themselves this year vs Fresno State and Boston College. I think that Liberty in a let down spot is very venerable here. Dogs of 14 or more with a total of 46 or less are 279-232 or 54.6 % which goes in the way that I am betting this game.
Take the Huskies +14 – 2.5 stars
Oklahoma vs West Virginia +7.5 O/U 66
What is a good breakfast food that people love to put butter on top of? The answer is Oklahoma, because that team is now toast after losing last week to Baylor. Why is Oklahoma even favored by this much away from home? What has Brett Venebles done to deserve this? Oklahoma ranks 82nd in defensive success rate. Hardly a good matchup against an offensive oriented Mountaineers team. West Virginia’s weakness is against the pass ranking 102nd in success rate, but Oklahoma isn’t exactly lighting it up themselves ranking 51st in passing yards per attempt. West Virginia can win out to make a bowl game here while Oklahoma might only care about beating their in state rival next week in Oklahoma State. Oklahoma only has a 1.03 net yards per play advantage over West Virginia and might struggle so far away from home. Oklahoma also has Oklahoma State on deck which they probably care about more. Take the Mountaineers.
West Virginia +7.5 – 2 stars – 1 Star ML +260
Georgia vs Mississippi State +16.5 O/U 53.5
This is a bad spot for Georgia and if there is a flat spot on their schedule, it’s this week.
Last week, all of Auburn’s yards to get close to Mississippi State were in garbage time.
Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Wait for a 17 or buy it for 10 cents.
Mississippi State +17 -120 – 1.5 stars and sprinkle ML
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 6-3 in the high participant Double-Ups. Taylor Heinecke was not the answer last week.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Sunday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 10-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Patrick Mahomes, QB: $7,900. I’m not usually big on spending this much on a QB, but the weather has officially gotten colder across much of the country and that usually means a small drop-off in passing attacks even in the NFL. Andy Reid has this offense dialed in through the air with Mahomes averaging 2.5 Passing TDs and 375 yards per game across his last four contests. That’s against the Bills, Titans, 49ers and Raiders. Not exactly the worst NFL defenses. My only concern here is the Chiefs get up big early and turn to the running game more in the second half. We won’t see 68 pass attempts in this one.
David Montgomery, RB: $6,000. If there’s a game the Bears running game not named Justin Fields breaks out, this is it. Outside of facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers the Lions defense is allowing over 150 rushing yards per game, mostly to traditional rushing attacks. Montgomery only has more than 15 totes one time this year, but he should be heavily featured in the attack on Sunday and can hopefully find the endzone.
Saquon Barkley, RB: $8,600. Barkley has only touched the ball less than 20 times in a game twice on the season. Both in contests that the Giants were playing from behind more than a score. He is averaging over 20 FPPG in DK format. The Texans are the worst defense against the run and it is not close. They are allowing 180.6 yards per game on the ground. That’s more than 30 yards more per game than the Lions who are 31st against the run.
Christian Kirk, WR: $5,900. Kirk has 8.7 Targets per game over his last three contests. I expect the Jags to have to throw the ball to catch-up so look for some points especially in the second half. The Chiefs are 24th in passing yards allowed so there is opportunity here.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR: $6,000. With Mecole Hardman out I expect to see a little more from MVS and Skyy Moore, but mostly I expect it to mean extra targets for JuJu and Travis Kelce. While I can’t afford Kelce with this lineup build, I can get JuJu. I’d expect double digit targets, high yards and a score in this one from JuJu.
Rondale Moore, WR: $5,200. As teams have tried to roll more coverage to Deandre Hopkins the last two games, Rondale Moore has been the main benefactor in the passing game. He has 18 targets the last two weeks. He hauled in 15 for 161 yards and a score in those two games. The Rams have regressed to the middle of the pack in passing defense this year and are getting less pressure on opposing QBs averaging only two sacks per game. If Kyler Murray has time he’s deadly and not just in Call of Duty. Make sure Murray is playing as he does have a hamstring injury before you green light this play.
Tyler Higbee, TE: $3,600. Well the Rams get the Cardinals Sunday. The Rams do have Cooper Kupp, but the second option for them should be Higbee. This Cardinals defense just got steam rolled by Noah Fant last week and Higbee can run circles around him. The Cards are 31st in the league in fantasy points allowed to Tight Ends so this one is a no-brainer at this price.
Jarvis Landry, Flex: $4,500. Landry returns for the Saints at the same time as T.J. Watt does for the Steelers. If there’s one thing I know about the Steelers defense when Watt is healthy its that they will get to the QB. Landry typically plays from the slot, so I expect some quick patterns to keep the pressure off Andy Dalton.
Minnesota, DEF: $2,200. Needed to find some value here. The weather is 35 degrees with possible snow/sleet and 10-20 mph winds. Taking a flyer on the Vikings as I don’t think Josh Allen will play. While Case Keenum is certainly capable of putting up a decent game against this rough Vikings secondary, I don’t see a huge game from him. He also is prone to making the occasional mistake and turn the ball over.
Hey all! If you have been tailing my OB plays this season, you know that the last couple were on the losing side. Saying that, we are season at 46-35 (57%) this season in College Football and I have decided to give out one of my top plays this week instead of a lower tier play! Best of luck if you tail!
Get all of our Premium Picks HERE, including monthly all access and my Early Bird College Basketball Full Season Special here at The Odds Breakers!
The Texas State Bobcats travel to Alabama to take on the South Bama Jaguars on Saturday. The Bobcats enter 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS and 4-5 o/u while the Jags enter 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS and 5-4 o/u. Texas State has been averaging just 4.5 yards per play offensively against defenses giving up an average of 5.5 YPP and there defense is giving up 5.3 YPP, which is the same number of their opponents offenses. On the other side of the field, South Alabama has been gaining 6 YPP against defenses giving up 5.8 YPP and are giving up just 4.9 YPP against offenses averaging 5.6 YPP. These are 2 of the slower paced teams in the conference, ranking 7th and 12th in tempo and have the same ranking for totals plays run in conference play. According to PFF, Texas State enters this contest as the 5th highest rated defense in the nation while South Bama is no slouch, ranking 40th. Big plays will come at a premium at this one with those defenses ranking 2nd and 3rd in the Sun Belt while the offenses rank 7th and 13th in accumulating plays of 30 yards or more. This will be a very similar matchup for South Alabama to when they played the Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana. That game ended with the Jaguars coming out on top 20-17. Another comparable game for the Jags was against Troy, where the score ended up 10-6. I fully expect this game to be under 45 points in this one.
I have handed out 5 plays already and am back today with 2 more for you. I am waiting on a few key injury notes to decide if I will add anything tomorrow morning; to receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Minnesota -17.5 vs Northwestern–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Sentiment is higher on Northwestern than it should be after everybody saw them play Ohio State to a respectable 21-7 loss last week. The weather had a major impact on them game and ultimately kept a lethal Ohio State offense at bay. Let’s not forget: Northwestern is 1-8 on the year with losses Miami OH and Southern Illinois. 2 weeks ago, they went on the road and allowed 33 points to an Iowa offense that had looked inept in every facet until they played the Wildcats.
I am playing on the Gophers with the expectation that backup QB Athan Kaliakmanis gets the start. The freshman has seen the majority of his work come in 2 tough road environments(@ Penn State, @ Nebraska); I’d say 8.8 Y/A is beyond impressive all things considered. The youngster also brings an element of mobility that Minnesota doesn’t get out of senior QB Tanner Morgan. The identity of this Gophers offense, however, is the run game. Mohamed Ibrahim is a true workhorse that is well over 1,000 yards a 5 YPC on the season, and Minnesota’s OL has exceeded my expectations. Throw out what you saw last week from Northwestern when Ohio State was forced to be one-dimensional; the Wildcats have allowed 200+ rushing yards to Miami OH, Duke, and Maryland this year. With the way I expect Minnesota to win up front and establish the run, that’s going to open up quite a few opportunities in the vertical passing game.
Northwestern has seemingly moved away from Ryan Hilinski as their starting QB in favor of Brendan Sullivan. In my opinion, Sullivan’s 73% completion is incredibly misleading when you consider he’s throwing for less than 6 Y/A on the year. Minnesota does a good job of limiting explosion over the top, so I won’t hold my breath and expect this to be the spot where Northwestern strikes gold in the passing game. In addition, Northwestern has not gotten much explosion out of RB Evan Hull(4.2 YPC); Minnesota’s run defense has been strong this year and should be able to force the Wildcats into obvious passing downs.
This feels awfully similar to when I backed Minnesota at home a few weeks ago against Rutgers, and it’s probably even more favorable given Northwestern’s struggles in stopping effective rushing attacks. This number should start with a 2; I see something along the lines of a 34-10 win for Minnesota.
*CFB(1u): Maryland 1H +6.5 @ Penn State–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
As I handicap this matchup, I really don’t see a whole lot separating these two teams. Both QB’s are right at 8 Y/A, each team is solid but not spectacular in the trenches. Perhaps the biggest separating factor is Penn State’s secondary, but I think this is a matchup where they are going to get pushed.
Maryland QB Taulia Tagovailoa was quite ineffective at Wisconsin last week, but as was routine in the Big10 last week, weather played a major factor in that game. Tagovailoa is still completing 70% of his passes this year at an efficient 8 Y/A; he has quite the slew of WR’s to work with that I believe can go toe-to-toe with this Penn State secondary. Perhaps the most underrated part of this Maryland offense is their run game as both Roman Hemby and Antwain Littleton are over 6 YPC this season. Penn State stepped up well in their run defense against Ohio State, but let’s not forget what Michigan did to this unit a few weeks ago. With the threat of a reliable passing game present, I think Maryland is able to establish the run here. Maryland’s OL has slipped a bit in Big10 play, but I haven’t seen enough out of Penn State’s pass rush to where I’m overly worried about the Terps getting beat up front.
We all know who Penn State QB Sean Clifford is: a serviceable but unspectacular QB. He has consistently found himself under 8 Y/A across the past 3 seasons. Penn State RB Nicholas Singleton’s numbers are still inflated from blowup games early in the season against Ohio and Auburn; he has been held to 4.5 YPC or below against Purdue, Central Michigan, Northwestern, Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana. Penn State’s OL has exceeded expectations this year, but that doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable(especially in the run blocking category). I view both Penn State’s offense and Maryland’s defense as solid but not great; I think the path to stops is there for the Terps.
Why Maryland 1H vs full game? I have been burned by teams playing their 2nd straight road game flaming out in the 2nd Half on multiple occasions this season, and we are getting a better number in the 1H. I would’ve made this 1H number closer to 4, so I see value backing Maryland early in this game.
