Don’t have ANY time this morning so please forgive the brevity of this message. Here are two plays I like today:
Nets/Cavs over 221 (-110), to win 2 units
The Nets have been unstoppable offensively as of late, and the Cavs will look to avenge themselves after a tough loss against a lengthy Raptors team where they only scored just over 100 points. Love the over.
Pacers/Pels over 234.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
When the Pels face high octane, small lineups that are defensively challenged, that usually results in a TON of points. No Herb Jones helps limit the Pelicans’ defense. Zion’s absence also opens up the lane for Indiana’s aggressive point guards. I have this at 242.
What gives with these Bears? They get massively classed and out-gained, and somehow cover last week vs a one loss Eagles team. The Bills on the other hand need themselves a slump buster. A team to pick on, and no better candidate right now than the Chicago Bears. People keep forgetting how this Bills team is very capable of getting margin like they did against The LA Rams, Green Bay and New England. Now the team in football plays the second worst team in the NFL and is less than a double digit favorite. Buffalo has a 1.1 net yards per play advantage over the Bears and that is counting when the Bears were actually healthy. As of last week, Chicago finally lost their best player on defense in Jack Sanborn. This won’t bode well vs the Bills. The Bears are a top four team in sacks allowed while the Bills are top ten in pressure rate. Buffalo is number three in offensive EPA and number two in opponent yards per point. Chicago is number 17th in offensive EPA and 30th in opponent yards per point. The Bills are fighting with the Chiefs for the number one seed in the AFC playoffs, while the Bears are fighting for a good draft.
Bills -8 – 2 stars
Cincinnati vs New England -3.5 O/U 41.5
It’s gonna be cold and windy in New England like most of the country, so points will come as a premium, Anyone with a brain knows that the Raiders were gifted that win last week vs the Pats. The important thing here is that the Patriots cannot afford to drop a game, while the Bengals are sitting pretty right now in 1st place in the AFC North. Believe it or not, The Patriots have a .2 net yards per play advantage over the tigers. The Patriots have a very good defense ranking number two in EPA while the Bengals rank about 8th. My number actually has this a -2 point favorite for the Bengals and they were saved last week due to pure Buccaneer incompetence allowing them back in that game with four late turnovers. New England was embarrassed last week and this is the get up spot of all get up spots in football. Lastly, Mac Jones is compared to Joe Burrow both coming just one year apart from rival schools in the SEC. I think Jones needs to prove something today. I would rather back the dog fighting for his life over the one fighting for a better meal.
Patriots +3.5 -120 – 2 stars
Teaser: 49ers to -.5 with the Rams to +9 – 2 stars
Hawai’i Bowl: Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State -6.5 O/U 48.5
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex — Honolulu, Hawaii
Middle Tennessee State: Motivation – Low – I think they have fun in Hawaii.
San Diego State: Motivation – Medium High – They go to Hawaii often enough and will look to do business.
Home Field: Slight edge to San Diego State due to proximity
Rick Stockstill, Middle Tennessee – 3-6 ATS in bowl games.
Brady Hoke, San Diego State – 2-3-1 ATS in bowl games.
Neither of these coaches have been great in bowl games.
SDSU has a SOS advantage at 91st to 126th.
SDSU has a .4 net yards per play advantage over the Blue Raiders.
I would look at the under this game if it wasn’t for MTSU being number 13 in Tempo. Maybe a TT under is a good look.
San Diego State has the best unit on the field in the defense. My power number is -6.5 but I lean them because they should take care of business.
Lean SDSU
Lean MTSU team total under 21.5
Monday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Bowling Green -3.5 O/U 47.5
Start Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Ford Field — Detroit, Mich.
New Mexico State: Motivation – Medium High – This team hasn’t went bowling in a long time.
Bowling Green: Motivation – Medium High – They made a bowl by shopping at wish but all that they got in return was Detroit Michigan.
Home Field: Bowling Green due to being 83 miles away.
Jerry Kill, New Mexico State – 1-5
Diego Pavia, QB (Transfer portal) for New Mexico state.
Bowling green has the harder SOS at 86th to 139th.
NMSU has a 1.5 yard per play advantage over Bowling green, but they haven’t beaten anyone with a pulse minus maybe Liberty.
Jerry Kill will kill your ticket if you back him in a bowl game.
Diego Pavia is the better quarterback for New Mexico State so that is another check mark against the Aggies being the he is leaving.
I Have Bowling green -6.5 points here, but I feel more comfortable betting the ML. I also think that they will be more motivated to get a bowl win close to home.
Bowling Green ML -150 – 2 stars
Tuesday, Dec. 27
Camellia Bowl: Georgia Southern vs. Buffalo +3.5 O/U 67
Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Cramton Bowl — Montgomery, Ala.
Georgia Southern: Motivation – Medium High – They haven’t played a bowl game in a while.
Buffalo: Motivation – Medium – Hard to gauge this team who blew their chances to get to the MAC title a few weeks back.
Home Field: Slight lean to Georgia Southern being 300 miles away.
Clay Helton, Georgia Southern – 1-4
Both teams will be without a few guys but nothing that major.
SOS isn’t too far off. 83rd for Georgia Southern to 100 for Buffalo.
GS has a .63 net yard per play advantage over the Bulls.
The big matchup advantage for the Eagles is their passing offense ranking 21st in the nation to Buffalo’s passing defense at 95th, but I am worried that Southern can’t get their defense off of the field giving up 5.77 yards per rush ranking 127th in the nation.
My power ratings have buffalo a 2 point dog so I will put a small play on them to cover and especially being that Clay Helton has had such bad bowl performances.
Buffalo +3.5 – 1.5 stars
First Responder Bowl: Utah State vs. Memphis -7 O/U 61.5
Start Time: 3:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium — Dallas, Texas
Utah State: Motivation – Medium – Not a bad place to go to get away.
Memphis: Motivation – Medium – Medium season with a medium bowl game.
Home Field: None
Ryan Silverfield, Memphis – 1-1 ATS in bowl games.
Blake Anderson, Utah State – 3-4 ATS in bowl games.
Utah State
RB Robert Briggs (Injury)
CB Ajani Carter (Injury)
CB Michael Anyanwu (Injury)
Utah State will be without backup running back and some starting corners..
SOS favors Memphis here slightly at 74th to 87th for Utah State.
Memphis has a 1.37 net yards per play advantage.
Memphis has the best unit on the field on offense and should be able to run all over Utah State who averages 4.92 yards per rush on defense.
I have Memphis -9 so strong lean Memphis.
Birmingham Bowl: East Carolina vs. Coastal Carolina +8 O/U 63
Start Time: TBD
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Protective Stadium — Birmingham, Ala.
East Carolina: Motivation – High – They get to beat up the talk of the town.
Coastal Carolina: Motivation – Low – They lost their coach and most likely their quarterback Grayson McCall for this game.
Home Field: None
Coastal Carolina
C Willie Lampkin (Transfer portal)
DE Josaiah Stewart (Transfer portal)
CB Manny Stokes (Transfer portal)
CB Zxaequan Reeves (Transfer portal)
S Dre Pinckney (Injury)
East Carolina
TE Ryan Jones (Opt-out)
C Avery Jones (Transfer portal)
EDGE Elijah Robinson (Transfer portal)
S Shawn Dourseau (Transfer portal)
Both teams are without their starting Center and good pass rushers
Very weird how Grayson McCall will play in this bowl game. I advise strongly against it.
Either way, East Carolina has a better SOS at 72nd to 114th.
East Carolina has a +.76 net yard per play advantage over Coastal.
Coastal will be giving up large amounts of points this game, but what the spread could comedown to is the back door for Coastal. East Carolina only ranks 97th in defensive success rate.
MY Power ratings have East Carolina by -7.5 points, but I really am not too keen on Coastal here with all of the uncertainty and I also think that the coaching loss is much greater for Coastal. Eastern Michigan should be able to run all over this team regardless.
I have East Carolina -10.5 in this situation.
East Carolina -7.5 – 2 stars
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Oklahoma State +3 O/U 43
Start Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Chase Field — Phoenix, Ariz.
Wisconsin: Motivation – Medium Low – New coaching, lots of transfers and no quarterbacks.
Oklahoma State: Motivation – Medium High – Why not beat the big 10? Not sure who plays QB for either team
Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State – 11-5
Oklahoma State
QB Spencer Sanders (Transfer portal)
RB Dominic Richardson (Transfer portal)
WR Jaden Bray (Injury)
WR Bryson Green (Injury)
DT Brendon Evers (Opt-out)
DE Trace Ford (Transfer portal)
DE Tyler Lacy (Opt-out)
LB Mason Cobb (Transfer portal)
S Thomas Harper (Transfer portal)
Wisconsin
QB Graham Mertz (Transfer portal)
QB Deacon Hill (Transfer portal)
RB Isaac Guerendo (Transfer portal)
WR Stephan Bracey (Transfer portal)
WR Markus Allen (Unknown status)
TE Jaylan Franklin (Transfer portal)
TE Clay Cundiff (Injury)
TE Cam Large (Injury)
OL Logan Brown (Transfer portal)
OG Michael Furtney (Transfer portal)
OG/TE Tyler Beach (Opt-out)
OC Joe Tippman (Opt-out)
NT Keeanu Benton (Opt-out)
LB Tristan Monday (Transfer portal)
LB Nick Herbig (Opt-out)
CB Semar Melvin (Transfer portal)
CB Jay Shaw (Opt-out)
CB Justin Clark (Opt-out)
S Titus Toler (Transfer portal)
Wisconsin has a 1.43 net yard per play advantage, but I really don’t want to play this high variance game.
The Badgers will have Chase Wolf or Myles Burkett start this game. How many times can this team hand it off to Braylon Allen?
This total probably has gotten too low. Lean over.
Wednesday, Dec. 28
Military Bowl: Duke vs. UCF +3 O/U 62.5
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium — Annapolis, Md.
Duke: Motivation – Medium – Making a bowl was impressive for Mike Elko.
UCF: Motivation – Medium Low – Maybe if this was basketball it would be higher.
Home Field: Slight edge to Duke at 300 miles away.
Gus Malzahn, UCF – 4-4
UCF
QB Mikey Keene (Transfer portal)
QB John Rhys Plumlee (Injury)
WR Ryan O’Keefe (Transfer portal)
SOS about equal.
YPP about equal at .6 ish.
If Plumblee isn’t playing, then Duke and the under! It will be a 3rd stringer. Wait to see how he is. If he is playing, bet UCF. He is worth 6 points to the line.
Liberty Bowl: Arkansas vs. Kansas +3 O/U 69
Start Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium — Memphis, Tenn.
Kansas: Motivation – High – SEC and finally made a bowl game after many many years.
Arkansas: Motivation – Medium low – I don’t like the Hogs much here being that they had higher aspirations preseason, but I certainly would not bet the under.
Home Field: None
Lance Leipold, Kansas – 4-1
Sam Pittman, Arkansas – 1-0
Arkansas
QB Malik Hornsby (Transfer portal)
WR Jadon Haselwood (Opt-out)
WR Ketron Jackson (Transfer portal)
C Ricky Stromberg (Opt-out)
LB Drew Sanders (Opt-out)
LB Bumper Pool (Opt-out)
S Myles Slusher (Transfer portal)
DB Chase Lowery (Transfer portal)
Arkansas has more transfers out than Kansas.
Kansas has a 1.08 net yard per play advantage.
Kansas also had a hard SOS just like Arkansas.
I like Kansas here and the over.
Kansas +3 – 2 stars
Over 69 – 2 stars
Holiday Bowl: Oregon vs. North Carolina +14 O/U 73.5
Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: FOX
Location: Petco Park — San Diego, Calif.
Oregon: Motivation – Medium – I feel this team wanted something better, but they still might put up a big effort.
North Carolina: Motivation – Medium – This team choked their last 4 games but that doesn’t mean that they don’t finally wake up here.
Home Field: None
Mack Brown, North Carolina – 1-2 * Only counting North Carolina tenure
Oregon
CB Christian Gonzalez (Opt-out)
North Carolina
RB Devon Lawrence (Transfer portal)
RB British Brooks (Injury)
WR Josh Downs (Opt-out)
DT Jahlil Taylor (Transfer portal)
DT Keeshawn Silver (Transfer portal)
EDGE Chris Collins (Transfer portal)
LB Noah Taylor (Injury)
CB Tony Grimes (Transfer portal)
CB Storm Duck (Transfer portal)
CB Dontae Balfour (Transfer portal)
S Cam’Ron Kelly (Transfer portal)
Looks like both QBs will play this game, but the opt out of Josh Downs and many others really ravaged this UNC offense.
Oregon has a .77 net yards per play advantage on a tougher SOS of 25th to 66th.
This number is starting to get a bit out of hand in my opinion being that my number is -10.5, but I will say that it’s hard to bet on UNC right now after the way that they finished the season.
Lean UNC +14.5
Texas Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss -3.5 O/U 69.5
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: NRG Stadium — Houston, Texas
Texas Tech: Motivation – High – They get an SEC team that plays fast like them.
Ole Miss: Motivation – Medium – Lane Kiffen still there which is nice.
Home Field: None – Texas is huge.
Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss – 2-3
CB Miles Battle (Transfer portal) for Ole Miss
Ole miss has been a fraudulent team this year and it showed when they stepped up in competition. I see a good effort from the Red Raiders who has a solid pass defense ranking 24th in success rate.
My power numbers have Ole miss by just 1 point.
Texas Tech +3.5 – 2 stars
Thursday, Dec. 29
Pinstripe Bowl: Minnesota vs. Syracuse +10 O/U 42
Start Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Yankee Stadium — Bronx, N.Y.
Minnesota: Motivation – Medium High – Why not play in the Big Apple?
Syracuse: Motivation – High – Chance to beat a Big 10 team
Home Field: Syracuse for sure being in NY.
Dino Babers, Syracuse – 2-0
PJ Fleck, Minnesota – 3-0
Syracuse
RB Sean Tucker (Opt-out)
DT Terry Lockett (Injury)
EDGE Stefon Thompson (Injury)
CB Garrett Williams (Injury)
CB Darian Chestnut (Transfer portal)
Minnesota
QB Tanner Morgan (Injury)
WR Chris Autman-Bell (Injury)
LB Braelen Oliver (Transfer portal)
S Michael Dixon (Transfer portal)
Great coaching records here.
Both teams hit by some injuries and opt outs.
Tanner Morgan QB is quetionable for Minnesota. If Morgan can’t go, QB2 Athan Kaliakmanis will start in his 4th game.
Syracuse has the better SOS at 47th to 67th
Both teams about equal in YPP at +1 ish.
Minnesota has a huge matchup advantage rushing the ball at 18th in success rate to Syracuse’s ranking 118th in opponent rushing success rate.
My power numbers have the Gophers winning this game by only 7 points right now, but with the rushing advantage and opt outs on Syracuse’s defense, i understand the line move to 10.
There should be a sizable home field advantage for Cuse here in NY. If Morgan can’t play at all here, bet Syracuse.
Cheez-It Bowl: Florida State vs. Oklahoma -+9 O/U 65
Start Time: 5:30 p.m ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Camping World Stadium — Orlando, Fla.
Florida State: Motivation – Medium – I think they could have done much better this year and they know it.
Oklahoma: Motivation – Medium High – Pending hold outs, I think they rally around Brett Venebles.
Home Field: Florida State but not as much because OU travels well and it’s 250 miles from Tallahassee
Mike Norvell, Florida State – 0-4
Florida State finally got it together mid-season and has been on a tear lately.
Oklahoma
QB Nick Evers (Transfer portal)
RB Eric Gray (Opt-out)
WR Theo Wease (Transfer portal)
OT Wanya Morris (Opt-out)
OT Anton Harrison (Opt-out)
DL Jalen Redmond (Opt-out)
LB Joseph Wete (Transfer portal)
OT Harrison and OT Morris were the team’s starting offensive tackles, RB Gray was its bellcow running back and WR Wease had 19 catches so that hurts.
Florida State
WR Winston Wright Jr. (Injury)
WR Darion Williamson (Injury)
DE Shambre Jackson (Transfer portal)
DE Darrell Jackson (Transfer portal)
DB Sam McCall (Transfer portal)
FSU QB Jordan Travis announced he will be returning next season which is a big boost for the Semis.
YPP is about equal yet the what have you done for me lately question really leans Florida State.
Mike Novell’s bowl record is horrible tho and even tho I bet Oklahoma, I kind of regret it.
Lean Florida State -8.5
Alamo Bowl: Washington vs. Texas -4 O/U 67.5
Start Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPN
Location: Alamodome — San Antonio, Texas
Washington: Motivation – High – They will want to beat a Big 12 Team like Texas.
Texas: Motivation – Medium High – They get a good program in state.
Home Field: Texas for sure only a few hours away from San Antonio.
Texas
QB Hudson Card (Transfer portal)
RB Bijan Robinson (Opt-out)
RB Roschon Johnson (Opt-out)
WR Troy Omeire (Transfer portal)
WR Jaden Alexis (Injury)
LB Prince Dorbah (Transfer portal)
LB DeMarvion Overshown (Opt-out)
Texas has a much harder SOS here at 3rd to 57th for Washington.
YPP is practically the same at about 1.5 net yards per play for both teams.
The Longhorns lost Bijan Robinson and a few others to the NFL, but Washington’s secondary is terrible ranking 75th in opponent passing play success rate so Quinn Ewers, should be able to move this ball some.
Texas on the other hand lost their best linebacker while their defense hasn’t been great against the pass ranking 48th in opponent passing success rate.
I am concerned some for more opt outs in this bowl game.
My power ratings has Texas -6 here, but the drop outs are really hurting Texas here and more might be coming. I think taking 4 with washington is a good move.
Welcome to a new 2022 Theoddsbreakers.com endeavor. Getting you, our loyal readers some insight into developing NFL DFS Lineups built to perform in Double/Triple-Ups, Head to Head’s and 50/50s. Building a high-floor winner every week in these formats allows your bankroll to grow and take some shots at the High dollar contests that DFS has to offer.
Our record this season is now 7-5 in the high participant Double-Ups. The Chargers decided to run the ball against an awful pass defense last week which led to our loss.
I’ll be bringing you my DFS picks for the main Saturday slate of games. If you play on DraftKings, it is a 10-game slate starting at 12:00 Central time. This article will be primarily focused on the DraftKings slate, so if you use Fanduel or any of the other DFS platforms you may have different rosters and values.
Geno Smith, QB: $5,800. Geno had his string of 5 straight 20+FPPG streak snapped last week against the elite 49ers defense. Your reward for that is a lowered salary for his match-up against the Chiefs who have allowed a league leading 30 Passing Touchdowns to opposing signal callers this year.
Derrick Henry, RB: $8,600. The Texans are allowing an NFL worst 167.5 rushing yards per game. The weather will be 15 degrees in Nashville on Saturday with 15mph winds. Less than ideal passing conditions. His last three starts vs the Texans he has 88 carries for 681 yards and 6 TDs. Looking for another 200+ yard effort Saturday.
J.K. Dobbins, RB: $5,800. Here’s another price I just don’t understand. With Lamar Jackson ruled out for Saturday the Ravens will again lean on the ground game against the Falcons. While Atlanta’s rushing defense hasn’t been awful they are certainly capable of giving up some yards on the ground. Dobbins is only averaging 14 carries over the 2 games since his return, but he’s put up over 120 yards in both contests on limited snaps with 8.8 yards per carry. I expect his workload to increase Saturday in the windy 13 degree weather in Baltimore.
D.K. Metcalf, WR: $7,100. Geno has to throw the ball to someone and D.K. has been his favorite target. He is averaging 10.5 targets, 7.5 catches and 86 yards over the last 4 weeks. He also has found the end-zone twice. He should see even more action with Tyler Lockett now sidelined.
D.J. Moore, WR: $5,500. Moore continues to excel with Sam Darnold under center. I understand that’s not saying much, but he’s gotten 58.8% of the air yards with Darnold at QB for the Panthers and that’s #1 in the NFL. With Darnold, Moore has actually ran more slot routes than before Darnold was the quarterback. He’s running almost 20% more of his routes from the slot with Darnold at QB, 68% of his total routes. The Lions are dead last in the NFL allowing 7.6 yards per pass attempt in 2022. The Lions are also dead last in yards allowed to slot receivers as well. I’m on the over receiving yards prop here of 54.5 as well.
Darius Slayton, WR: $5,200. While Slayton has struggled some this season he hasn’t had the best match-ups. He’s come on the last two weeks where he has 11 catches on 15 targets. The Vikings Pass defense has been a problem all season long as they are one of just two teams to allow over 4,000 passing yards. The Vikings have allowed 45 or more points to the wide receiver position in four out of the last six weeks. With this game in the dome it could be one of the more pass friendly games on the ledger.
Juwan Johnson, TE: $3,800. Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry are both out for this one and the weather will be rough for downfield passing. Those factors should lead to more short targets for Johnson who outside of the 49ers game week 12 has produced top tier TE numbers since week 9. He has five touchdowns in his last four games and is targeted on over 23% of his routes since week 8. The Browns give up 11.8 yards per catch to tight ends and have allowed 14 TE touchdowns this season.
D’Andre Swift, Flex: $5,500. Swift and Jamaal Williams continue to split time in the backfield with Swift getting almost all the snaps in passing situations. Well take that passing game edge to the lineup card and hope the Panthers defense can put the Lions in multiple 3rd down situations on Satuday.
Cowboys, DST: $2,600. The Eagles are #3 in offense this season, but Jalen Hurts won’t play on Saturday. The Cowboys are 8th in total defense and tops in the league in takeaways and 2nd in the league in sacks. While Gardner Minshew has proven a capable backup in the NFL, he takes sacks on a high percentage of his dropbacks, and the Ball Hawk Cowboys at this bargain price have to be in play.
A 3-0 Thursday in College Hoops brings me to 31-24-1 on the season! Short card for today, so I’m rolling with just 1 play that tips off this afternoon. I’ve also added a small addition on tonight’s Wake Forest/Missouri game.
*CBB(0.5u): George Mason TT OVER 79.5 vs Coppin State–3 PM CT
Playing against this Coppin State defense is a dream for any opposing offense. The Eagles have a bottom 30 defense in all of CBB and pair that with running at a top 20 pace. Specifically, Coppin State is especially poor on the glass, ranking 349th in defensive rebounding percentage. I expect an especially weak effort from Coppin State on that end of the floor considering they played a 2OT game less than 48 hours ago. George Mason won’t be a high-flying offense come A-10 play, but the Patriots do a nice job of knocking down outside shots(37% from deep). I’m perplexed as to why this TT doesn’t start with an 8; Coppin State has already allowed 90 or more on 5 sepeate occasions this year.
*CFB(0.5u): Missouri +2.5 vs Wake Forest–5:30 PM CT
This won’t be one of my stronger plays this bowl season, but after getting some line movement in our direction, I’ll fire on Mizzou for a 0.5u. I talked about this game a few nights ago on my YouTube channel; see analysis below.
Obviously we could handicap all day and probably have many more bets today, but that seems like a bad idea and it’s probably part of the reason why we stumbled earlier this month. I love all of our plays today; added the Cavs and Kings – let’s keep humming!
Clippers +3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I have to take LAC at this number. The Clippers are in a flow-state right now and it’s mostly because of what they’re doing on defense. But when this team is completely healthy, I think they can be deadly good. They’ll be as close to completely healthy as they’ve been all season tomorrow. Kawhi, PG, and Zubac are all in and it looks like even John Wall is showing up as questionable and could play. As well as Philly’s been performing on both sides of the ball, their pedestrian pace won’t be a good matchup against the Clippers. LAC thrives off their length and disciplined, lock-down defense; usually it’s only fast-paced, high octane offense like the Warriors or Kings that could give them trouble. That’s not the way Philly is built. They love ISOs and pick and rolls, but the Clippers sniff that out like a mouse finds cheese. I just don’t believe in the 76ers in big games like this and even though their defense has been exceptional too, I trust a cohesives, egoless Clippers big 3 to overwhelm the inconsistent, more often clumsy unit in Philadelphia. Give me the dogs at a beautiful number.
Bucks/Nets over 225.5 (-110), to win 2 units
I love this matchup for a big offensive exhibition. As much as the Warriors’ road woes and injuries are a big part of Brooklyn’s historic night Wednesday, it doesn’t mean the Nets aren’t the biggest part of that story. Kevin Durant and company are humming like they never have before. There’s actual chemistry there. They’re having fun. They’re trusting their roles, and it’s showing on the court. They’re masterful scorers in the mid-range, and they’re increasingly skilled in the 3-point game. As Joe Harris warms up, that’ll get even better. Meanwhile, my #1 rated team, the Milwaukee Bucks, are coming off a disappointing loss to Cleveland. And a lot of that was the Cavs’ defense. Cleveland forced 21 turnovers that night, a figure not reminiscent of the Bucks we know. Reprogrammed for a big night, the bucks should look way better Friday (aka, regression). I think both teams will want to attack early and this becomes a superstar competition more than a defensive battle. Give me the over – I got it at 234.
Knicks -5.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Bulls have been dominated by the Knicks twice in two different looking games and for good reason. One was more about the Knicks’ defense and other more about the Knicks’ offense, but either way, NYK matches up well against Chicago. They’ve also been extremely efficient against bad defenses lately and worry not, Chicago is a bad defense. They can get a block here and there but against an interior-driving team like NYK, led by Jalen Brunson, they fold real quick. We’ve seen it before – the Knicks are just too physical for the Bulls right now, who just got two phony wins against teams in disarray. Give me the Knicks to respond at home.
Cavs -4 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Cavs superior defense will be a problem for Toronto tonight. Pascal Siakam had an MVP like performance against a tired Knicks team the other night, and that’s the biggest reason why they were able to eke out a win. But Siakam isn’t built and the Raptors can’t depend on him to score like that in every game. And it won’t happen tonight. Cleveland is tops of the NBA in mid-range and rim defense, the two areas where Toronto prefers to shoot the ball from. Which then begs the question– why have the Cavs already lost twice to Toronto? The first game was in the very beginning of the season; it takes awhile for a team with new skill players to come together. And in the second matchup– Cleveland faced Toronto without Jarett Allen. Allen is probably their most important defensive piece and when both bigs are healthy, the paint is a really tough area for any opponent to score. Lamar Stevens, who would add another big and another defensive boost, is also questionable. We’ll like this wager even more if both play and we think they will, but I still love this spot for Cleveland at home in a series where they need to snag their first win. Also, the Raptors aren’t as good of a perimeter defense. Besides Kevin Durant, no one is playing more minutes and shooting a more effective FG % than Donovan Mitchell. I think he can torch Cleveland tonight. That’s exactly what Mitchell and Garland did to the Bucks the other night. Okay I’ve written long enough- go Cavs!
Grizzlies -2 (-110), to win 2 units
According to the NBA Injury Report, the Grizzlies will be as healthy as they’ve ever been . Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and even Desmond Bane should suit up in this big Western Conference showdown. Morant recently said he’s not worried about anyone in the West, which the Suns’ probably take offense to, but that doesn’t mean they can do anything about it on Friday. According to multiple reports, Booker and Payne will both be out tomorrow, two of the biggest contributors to the Suns’ offense. That’s not a good thing against the hyper-paced Grizzlies. Fresh off an embarrassing loss, the Grizzlies will be as aggressive as ever in this big spotlight game. That’s always how they score, but driving to the rim angry is even better when you’re already in a bad mood. I love Memphis at this line.
Kings 1H over 60.5 (-120), to win 1.25 units
This game could be a blowout but I’m not as confident about that as I am the setup for Sacramento to score a lot of points. I’m also not as confident in the full game total over since it could be a blowout and things tend to slow down at that point. This is one of the worst spots for any team I’ve seen all season – Washington is on their 6th game in 10 days and the 6th and final leg of their horrific road trip. Fresh off a defeat by the Jazz where the Wizards simply ran out of gas late in the contest, now they have to pick themselves up the very next day and play a rested Kings team at home. At this point we all know how explosive the Kings can be. They’re healthy, they’ve been at home, and their offense (much like the Jazz) runs in transition as good as any in the NBA. That’s the achilles heel for the Wizards’ defense, especially when they’re this exhausted. All bets on the Kings are probably good ones, but we’re going with a fast start against a tired defense.
Correction – you should get the Clippers at +3.5, it’s available (PointsBet, for example).
Clippers +3.5 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I have to take LAC at this number. The Clippers are in a flow-state right now and it’s mostly because of what they’re doing on defense. But when this team is completely healthy, I think they can be deadly good. They’ll be as close to completely healthy as they’ve been all season tomorrow. Kawhi, PG, and Zubac are all in and it looks like even John Wall is showing up as questionable and could play. As well as Philly’s been performing on both sides of the ball, their pedestrian pace won’t be a good matchup against the Clippers. LAC thrives off their length and disciplined, lock-down defense; usually it’s only fast-paced, high octane offense like the Warriors or Kings that could give them trouble. That’s not the way Philly is built. They love ISOs and pick and rolls, but the Clippers sniff that out like a mouse finds cheese. I just don’t believe in the 76ers in big games like this and even though their defense has been exceptional too, I trust a cohesives, egoless Clippers big 3 to overwhelm the inconsistent, more often clumsy unit in Philadelphia. Give me the dogs at a beautiful number.
The Bulls have been dominated by the Knicks twice in two different looking games and for good reason. One was more about the Knicks’ defense and other more about the Knicks’ offense, but either way, NYK matches up well against Chicago. They’ve also been extremely efficient against bad defenses lately and worry not, Chicago is a bad defense. They can get a block here and there but against an interior-driving team like NYK, led by Jalen Brunson, they fold real quick. We’ve seen it before – the Knicks are just too physical for the Bulls right now, who just got two phony wins against teams in disarray. Give me the Knicks to respond at home.
Clippers +3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
I have to take LAC at this number. The Clippers are in a flow-state right now and it’s mostly because of what they’re doing on defense. But when this team is completely healthy, I think they can be deadly good. They’ll be as close to completely healthy as they’ve been all season tomorrow. Kawhi, PG, and Zubac are all in and it looks like even John Wall is showing up as questionable and could play. As well as Philly’s been performing on both sides of the ball, their pedestrian pace won’t be a good matchup against the Clippers. LAC thrives off their length and disciplined, lock-down defense; usually it’s only fast-paced, high octane offense like the Warriors or Kings that could give them trouble. That’s not the way Philly is built. They love ISOs and pick and rolls, but the Clippers sniff that out like a mouse finds cheese. I just don’t believe in the 76ers in big games like this and even though their defense has been exceptional too, I trust a cohesives, egoless Clippers big 3 to overwhelm the inconsistent, more often clumsy unit in Philadelphia. Give me the dogs at a beautiful number.
Another winning night – we go 2-0 Thursday, cementing a 10-2 three day streak. Can’t hate on that. Keep trusting the process.
This is a HUGE slate so we’ll probably have more plays tomorrow. Gotta be careful on big slates like this though – Don’t want to be over exposed.
Bucks/Nets over 225.5 (-110), to win 2 units
I love this matchup for a big offensive exhibition. As much as the Warriors’ road woes and injuries are a big part of Brooklyn’s historic night Wednesday, it doesn’t mean the Nets aren’t the biggest part of that story. Kevin Durant and company are humming like they never have before. There’s actual chemistry there. They’re having fun. They’re trusting their roles, and it’s showing on the court. They’re masterful scorers in the mid-range, and they’re increasingly skilled in the 3-point game. As Joe Harris warms up, that’ll get even better. Meanwhile, my #1 rated team, the Milwaukee Bucks, are coming off a disappointing loss to Cleveland. And a lot of that was the Cavs’ defense. Cleveland forced 21 turnovers that night, a figure not reminiscent of the Bucks we know. Reprogrammed for a big night, the bucks should look way better Friday (aka, regression). I think both teams will want to attack early and this becomes a superstar competition more than a defensive battle. Give me the over – I got it at 234.
Grizzlies -2 (-110), to win 2 units
According to the NBA Injury Report, the Grizzlies will be as healthy as they’ve ever been . Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, and even Desmond Bane should suit up in this big Western Conference showdown. Morant recently said he’s not worried about anyone in the West, which the Suns’ probably take offense to, but that doesn’t mean they can do anything about it on Friday. According to multiple reports, Booker and Payne will both be out tomorrow, two of the biggest contributors to the Suns’ offense. That’s not a good thing against the hyper-paced Grizzlies. Fresh off an embarrassing loss, the Grizzlies will be as aggressive as ever in this big spotlight game. That’s always how they score, but driving to the rim angry is even better when you’re already in a bad mood. I love Memphis at this line.
