I released 2 Early Best Bets last night and am back today with 3 more plays for you. I am organizing how I want to approach the rest of this card and will be back tomorrow morning with one last wave of plays. Coming off a 6-2 Week 10, let’s carry it over into Week 11!

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*CFB(1u): Memphis TT OVER 34.5 vs Tulsa–Thursday 6:30 PM CT

Memphis is in the middle of a tough 4 game skid where they blew a 4Q lead to Houston, lost in 4OT at East Carolina, and lost by 7 to UCF last week. A bounce of the ball here and there would have this team in much higher regard in the betting markets, and I believe this is an extremely favorable matchup for their offense.

Tulsa’s defense is atrocious. Allowing 27 points to Tulane last week might not look bad on the surface, but the Golden Hurricanes allowed 357 yards on the ground in that matchup. That is on the heels of allowing 53 points to Navy. Memphis RB Asa Martin averages 5.8 YPC and brings explosiveness out of the backfield that I believe Tulsa won’t be able to contain. I like Memphis QB Seth Henigan; he’s completing 65% of his passes on the year and has thrown for 8.3 Y/A throughout his career. Tulsa’s secondary isn’t as porous as their run defense, but with the way I believe the run game gets established tonight, that’s going to open quite a few opportunities for Henigan in the vertical passing game. Memphis’s OL has not held up well against competent pass rushes, but Tulsa’s inability to get after the QB is too clear to ignore.

I don’t want to have to worry about the other side of this matchup. Tulsa QB Davis Brin is a game-time decision, and I don’t have a great feel as to how freshman Braylon Braxton would fare against this Memphis defense. Each of these teams like to use pace to their favor, so we should get a high-possession game here. I would’ve made this Memphis TT at 38 or 38.5, so I see quite a bit of value in backing the Tigers offense tonight.

*CFB(1u): Florida -8 vs South Carolina–Saturday 3 PM CT

Florida has had their fair share of ups-and-downs this season, but I saw a lot of life out of this group last week. After falling behind on the road at Texas A&M, Florida rattled off a 21-0 run and blanked the Aggies in the 2nd Half. South Carolina might’ve gotten their 6th win last week, but I believe their record is quite misleading; they faced Kentucky without Will Levis, scored multiple defense/special teams TD’s vs Texas A&M, and got to play Vandy last week. This is the same team that lost by 13 to Missouri a few weeks ago and allowed 44 points at Arkansas earlier in the season. Here in their second straight road game, I think we see exactly why the Gamecocks are sizable ‘dogs in this matchup.

Florida is clearly a run-first team. We know what QB Anthony Richardson can do in the run game(6.6 YPC), but I’ve been beyond impressed from what Florida has gotten out of their RB room; their top 2 backs are each over 5.8 YPC. Florida is able to win up front consistently on this side of the ball, having allowed more than 1 sack just once this season. South Carolina, on the other hand, has some pretty clear struggles within their Front 7. Aside from their inability to get pressure on the QB, the Gamecocks have struggled to match up well against the run this year; last week, Vanderbilt’s Ray Davis ran for over 8 yards a pop on 20 carries. With the effectiveness and multiplicity of this Florida rushing attack, I think that makes Richardson’s life that much easier in the vertical passing game.

South Carolina’s offense is simply not where it needs to be by SEC standards in what is just Year 2 for Shane Beamer. QB Spencer Rattler is figuring out that he doesn’t have Oklahoma-level skill talent at his new stop, and as a result, his numbers have plummeted(7.3 Y/A, 8 TD vs 9 INT). The Gamecocks’ run game is above average with MarShawn Lloyd healthy, but he is not a certainty to go in this game after missing last week. Even with Lloyd in there, South Carolina’s mediocrity up front limits the rushing attack from being overly explosive. Aside from a 65 yard run by Devon Achane, I thought Florida played the run pretty well last week, and aside from a blowup performance vs LSU, the secondary has held up fine. This is not an overly difficult matchup for Florida’s DL in the trenches.

With first year head coaches, you have to account for improvement in the month of November. Billy Napier has done a good job of weeding out the distractions in that locker room, and I thought we saw an inspired performance in response last week. This line should tell you everything you need to know; Florida wins this one by double digits.

*CFB(1u): Washington/Oregon OVER 72.5–Saturday 6 PM CT

I don’t see a path to stops for Washington. The Huskies rank outside the Top 100 in defensive efficiency this season and now have to travel to take on the most balanced/multiple offense in the country. It all starts up front for Oregon; the Ducks have allowed just 1 sack this season(1!). In the run game, they’ve paved the way for 3 separate Oregon rushers(including Nix) to run for over 6 YPC. This is the best OL in CFB. I don’t see Washington providing much of a resistance in their Front 7, but the true weakness of this defense is their secondary. Both Jayden de Laura and Tanner McKee threw for over 11 Y/A on this unit, and Bo Nix(9.1 Y/A) is more than capable of doing the same. Nix is a product of his environment; with the OL and skill players he has, it’s not hard to see why a middling player at Auburn is able to come in and lead an elite offense. Oregon very well put up 50 on Saturday.

Washington runs at one of the fastest paces in College Football and features a pass-first(maybe pass-only?) offense. The Huskies also have a really good OL, having allowed just 5 sacks this season. People think of Oregon as a physical team in the trenches; while that is mostly true against the run, they have not impressed me in the pass rushing department this season. Additionally, the pass defense is not so good to where I think they’ll shut down Michael Penix and co; Stetson Bennett and Cameron Ward both threw at will on this Oregon defense. Washington cannot run the football, but I think that actually plays to our favor on this play. The Huskies are almost certain to be playing from behind in this matchup, and I expect Kalen DeBour to rely almost exclusively on his senior QB Michael Penix to produce points.

With Washington’s pace and Oregon’s ability to create explosive plays in a multitude of ways, I see this game being played in the upper-70’s. Think 48-30.

Coming off a 6-2, +4.08u Week 10, we are really starting to hit a stride in CFB!

I expect to have another high-volume card here in Week 11, and I will roll all those plays out over the next few days. I have moved on 2 games that I want to go ahead and hand out and will follow up with more tomorrow morning.

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*CFB(1u): Rutgers/Michigan State UNDER 40.5–Saturday 11 AM CT

Rutgers Unders have been a thing of beauty for us this year, and it’s not hard to see why. The Scarlet Knights rank 127th in the country in yards/play but actually feature a very solid defense. This is a secondary that held both CJ Stroud and JJ McCarthy to under 7 Y/A, and the run defense is more than capable of holding MSU at bay. The Spartans got somewhat of a spark on the ground last week Illinois, but that still only amounted to 112 rushing yards. Aside from that, this has been a putrid unit that fails to step up on a consistent basis. QB Payton Thorne has had to shoulder the entire load and, as you might expect, has seriously regressed as a passer(7.1 Y/A) from where he was last year when he shared the backfield with Kenneth Walker III.

Michigan State’s strength defensively is stopping the run, and they won’t face much of a threat in that facet with Rutgers’ RB1 on the shelf. That leaves the Scarlet Knights with a below average run game to pair with what’s been putrid QB play. It’s been a bit of a revolving door at QB for Greg Schiano, but he seems to be riding the high-upside youngster Gavin Wimsatt. Wimsatt brings some mobility to the table, but he gives it right back with a 43% completion, 5.1 Y/A, and 2 TD vs 6 INT. I know Michigan State’s secondary hasn’t been particularly stout since the arrival of Mel Tucker, but we’re talking about a legitimate dream matchup here facing a bottom 5 offense in the country.

There are a few other elements in this matchup that clearly point towards a play on the Under. Both offenses rank in the bottom 10 in the country in pace, and each also ranks in the bottom 30 in red zone efficiency. I see this game playing out in the low-to-mid 30’s; think 21-10 or 24-10. I know this total is low, but anything at or above 38 presents a good opportunity to play this Under.

*CFB(1u): Wake Forest -3.5 vs North Carolina–Saturday 6:30 PM CT

North Carolina is on the second game of a tough back-to-back road stretch, while Wake Forest returns home after a tough road stretch of their own. Wake Forest is one of the most experienced teams in the country, while North Carolina is relying on 1st year players at a multitude of key positions.

In my opinion, one of the biggest stories in CFB should be that North Carolina is (somehow) 8-1 despite having one of the worst defenses in the country. This unit does nothing well and has been bailed out by having a superstar QB in Drake Maye. However, I believe this is the spot where UNC gets exposed for this glaring weakness. Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman is a 5th year player that is having another very good year for the Demon Deacons(8.8 Y/A, 24 TD vs 9 INT). Paired with him are 4 separate WR’s that each have at least 25 catches and average over 14 yards/reception. I’ll concede that Wake Forest is mediocre in the run game and nothing to write home about along their OL, but once again, we have to consider how little resistance UNC’s defense provides. Appalachian State hung 61 on this unit, Notre Dame hung 45 on this unit, Miami totaled 496 passing yards on this unit, and even Virginia looked competent against the Tar Heels last week. I expect Sam Hartman to have a career day.

UNC QB Drake Maye has been incredible for the Tar Heels in his inaugural season; Maye has completed over 70% of his passes, thrown for over 9 Y/A, and holds a TD/INT ratio above 10. With all of this said, I wouldn’t exactly call the Tar Heels a balanced attack; RB health has been a major issue in Chapel Hill(Maye is the leading rusher), and the Tar Heels also struggle mightily to protect Maye(6 games with 3+ sacks). I wouldn’t call Wake Forest’s defense “good”, but I think they are solid along their Back 7 and should be able to win against UNC up front. For context, Wake Forest ranks 50th in defensive FEI, while North Carolina ranks 118th. 

If UNC’s tactic of riding a 1st year QB was to ever burst into flames, it would be in a “second straight road game” spot at night against an arch rival that is riddled with experience. Both offenses are good, but I expect UNC’s defensive incompetence to finally catch up with them.