October was a profitable month for me in CFB, and I’ll look to carry it over into the final month of the regular season.
I have 4 early best bets on this Week 10 slate for you but will be back with another slew of games by tomorrow morning. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*CFB(1u): Georgia -8 vs Tennessee–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Tennessee has played at an elite level over the past few weeks, but I want to get a few things clear. First of all, did you know that Georgia averages more yards/play offensively than Tennessee this year? The narrative around this game would lead me to believe you probably didn’t. Secondly, regardless of what we saw last week, Tennessee’s defense is CLEARLY the worst unit on the field in this matchup and very vulnerable in their secondary.
Georgia QB Stetson Bennett has had more put on his plate this year and has responded well. Bennett has thrown for 8.8 Y/A and turned the ball over just 3 times despite throwing 268 times on the season. We saw Kedon Slovis(Pitt), Bryce Young(Alabama), and Anthony Richardson(Florida) expose this Vols secondary; one step-up performance against Kentucky is not enough to make me forget that. The clear strength of Tennessee’s defense is going against the run, but I’m not conceding that will carry over into this matchup. Georgia features a pair of 6 YPC RB’s that closed out last week’s game in loud fashion, and this far and away the best OL Tennessee has faced this season.
Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker presents a scary matchup; hell, I bet him at 60:1 to win the Heisman before the season. Hooker has thrown for nearly 11 Y/A this season, just 1 INT, and is a major threat with his legs. Once again, though, this is far-and-away his toughest matchup of the season. 2021 Georgia was known for their dominant front 7, but I think 2022 Georgia will remembered for what is an elite secondary. Hooker is going to get his, but I think Georgia will do enough to limit him over time(more on this in the last paragraph). Tennessee’s run game is solid, but it’s not to the level it needs to be facing off with what’s still a very good Georgia front 7. I think Georgia can force the Vols into a lot of obvious passing downs; Hooker will get his, but can he do it for 60 minutes?
Tennessee runs at one of the fastest paces in CFB, and there are certain matchups where I expect that to work in their favor. This is not one of them. The amount of “big time” throws Hendon Hooker is going to have to make in this game given the amount of possessions I expect is insurmountable, in my opinion. Georgia’s defense is going to do enough to contain Hooker, and from there, Stetson Bennett, Brock Bowers, and the rest of this Georgia passing game will expose Tennessee’s secondary for what it is. Any line in the single-digits presents a good opportunity to back the ‘Dawgs.
*CFB(1u): Pittsburgh -3.5 vs Syracuse–Saturday 2:30 PM CT
Syracuse started the year 6-0 but has been exposed these past 2 weeks playing teams that are far superior in the trenches. Now, they go on the road for the 2nd time in 3 weeks and play… a team that is superior in the trenches.
Pitt sits at just 4-4 and is in the heels of a 2 game road losing streak, but I have not thrown in the towel on this Panthers team. The Panthers feature a physical running game led by Israel Abanikanda(5.9 YPC this year) and don’t have a glaring hole defensively. Stylistically, they are very similar to Notre Dame, a team that whipped up Syracuse in every facet last week. QB Kedon Slovis is certainly not a world beater, and you have to give Syracuse’s secondary credit for their ability to limit explosiveness over the top. However, the Orangemen have been outmatched up front and in the run game each of the past 2 weeks, and I expect that to carry over into this matchup. Syracuse also had their top corner Garrett Williams go down last week(for the second straight week), a loss I think allows Slovis just enough room to have an efficient day through the air.
Syracuse QB Garrett Schrader was taken out of last week’s game in the 3Q vs Notre Dame for reasons that are still not clear. Speculation aside, it is clear that Dino Babers is aware how outmatched his OL is in some of the Cuse’s tougher matchups. Already this season, they have allowed 5 sacks vs Clemson, 6 sacks vs Virginia, and 4 sacks last week vs Notre Dame. Pitt’s pass rush is an area of that defense I like, and personally, I don’t think they’ve scratched the surface of what they are capable of. Syracuse RB Sean Tucker is a very talented back, but he has received just 21 carries over these past 2 weeks given Syracuse knows they are outmatched up front. Pitt has been solid against the run this season, and the strength of their defense lies within the secondary. I expect many of the reasons Syracuse has struggled offensively these past 2 weeks to remain true in this matchup.
We’ve seen that Syracuse’s early season success and formula is not sustainable as they start to face physically superior teams. Sentiment may be low on Pitt, but this line is clearly short.
*CFB(1u): Utah 1H -10 vs Arizona–Saturday 6:30 PM CT
Arizona put up a good fight at home vs USC last week, but going on the road to Salt Lake City at night is an environment I don’t think this roster is ready for. Additionally, Utah is on a long week after winning short-handed at Washington State last Thursday night.
Arizona’s defense is truly wretched; there’s absolutely nothing to like about this unit. Their pass rush has been non-existent in even the best of spots, which has led to an already bad secondary looking even worse. If that wasn’t bad enough, their run defense has been putrid as well. Oregon, Washington, USC, and CAL(!) have put up 45+ on the Wildcats already this season; Utah should fare similarly. I’ll admit that Utah is still not at peak health offensively; I don’t expect leading receiver Dalton Kincaid to play, and the Utes could be without both Tavion Thomas and Micah Bernard at RB. However, coming off a long week, Utah should get QB Cam Rising back, which is more than enough to get me on the Utes. Even if Utah has to settle with their lesser RB options, let’s not forget that CAL(!) ran for 354 yards on this Arizona defense.
Utah’s defense has underperformed this season, but I have seen signs of improvement in recent weeks. They have recorded 4 sacks in each of their past 2 games, and the pieces at the second and third levels are clearly there as well. Arizona QB Jayden de Laura is over 8 Y/A this year and is certainly a capable QB, but I think too much will fall on his shoulders in this matchup. Arizona’s run game has been solid on an aggregate basis, but they have also been bottled up in some of their tougher matchups. With my expectation that Utah will win up front on this side of the ball, I can’t trust de Laura to single-handedly carry Arizona’s offense against a superior defense.
Why isolate the 1H? Like I said, Utah is a beat up team that does not want to extend this game unnecessarily. If they were to build a comfortable lead, I could see them playing this one conservative down the stretch and rotating a lot of younger depth pieces in the game. Arizona’s offense could certainly move the ball on some of Utah’s lesser pieces, creating a “back door” opportunity for the Wildcats. We know we’re getting Utah’s best early, so I’ll isolate this one in the 1H.
*CFB(1u): NC State +4 vs Wake Forest–Saturday 7 PM CT
Wake Forest will hit the road for the 2nd straight week after getting run off the field at Louisville last week. Conversely, NC State is at home for the second straight week and have 2 extra days to prepare after a thrilling comeback win vs Virginia Tech last week.
NC State’s offense has underperformed this season; there’s no two ways around that. However, there’s reason to believe we see a good showing from the Pack on this side of the ball. After QB1 Devin Leary was ruled out for the season, Dave Doeren inexcusably turned to Jack Chambers to take over the offense. Chambers was a below average player at the FCS ranks across multiple seasons, and unsurprisingly, he was horrific for the Wolfpack this year. Out of desperation, Doeren turned to freshman MJ Morris last week; all Morris did was go 20/29 for 265 yards and 3 TD’s, leading the Wolfpack to a comeback win. While young, Morris is a clear upgrade for NC State at the QB position, and I really don’t view this as an overly tough matchup for the young QB. Wake Forest is not physical along their front 4 and has been leaky in their Back 7 as well. We saw all of this against Louisville last week, but it’s really been a common theme throughout the season. With NC State set to welcome back RB1 Demie Sumo-Karngbaye(5.8 YPC) on Saturday and already knowing how good they are along the OL, I don’t see why we can’t get a winning performance from the Pack offense.
The Wake Forest passing game is good, but the Demon Deacon offense lacks balance in a major way. Wake features a slew of mediocre backs that have even been stuffed by the likes of Liberty this year; NC State’s strength defensively is going up against the run. Wake’s OL is also very shaky, having allowed 7 sacks vs Louisville last week and 3+ sacks on three other occasions this season. Sam Hartman is an experienced QB having a good season, but I view this as a really tough matchup for him. NC State’s secondary held both DJ Uiagalelei and Jordan Travis to under 7 Y/A, and with the lack of balance in Wake’s offense, I don’t think they’ll be caught on their heels in this spot.
I think NC State wins this game outright, but I’ll take the points.
