Another winning night in the NBA has us at nearly +14 units through 2 weeks. That’s pretty incredible. Could this be our biggest winning NBA season to date?
Let’s not go that far just yet. Gotta stay humble, onto the next day.
Wizards +8 (-110), to win 1 unit
The 76ers beat the Wizards two days ago because of a surge in the 3rd quarter but I love the Wizards in a rematch. They’re one of the best defenses in the NBA out the gate, just like they were last season, and I don’t think they’ll lose that luster in game two against a 76ers team that’s already playing poorly at home (1-2 ATS) and we all know has real struggles on offense. The Wizards can be competitive and in the last game they were just overdependent on Kristaps Porzingis. I think they keep this one much closer– Philly is one of the lowest scoring second half teams and the Wiz shouldn’t let that surge happen again.
Hawks/Knicks over 118 or less (-110), to win 1.5 units
Hawks/Knicks over 228.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
The Hawks and Knicks are among the highest scoring teams in the 1st half. They’re also both in the top half of the league in pace and offensive efficiency. I also think Trae Young vs. Jalen Brunson is a battle where both players can win offensively on a regular basis. I like this even more since both teams are overdue for positive regression on offense; each are coming off losses where they scored way under their average. Overs!
Bucks 1Q -3.5 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
Bucks 1H -7.5 or less (-110), to win 1 unit
We saw in the last game and I think we’ll see it again here. The Bucks allowed Detroit to get way too close to a win in their first matchup on Monday. It felt like Giannis kind of took it easy on ’em in that contest; he just wasn’t as active. Still, the Bucks won the last first half by 8 points and the Pistons are among the worst defensive teams in the NBA in the first 24 minutes of play. Guess who’s among the best– Milwaukee. Taking the Bucks early.
Raptors -7 (-110), to win 1.5 units
Toronto’s length should be a huge problem for the Spurs and there’s a real chance that Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell could sit out against the Raptors, which is bad news for San Antonio. That tandem has combined for 43.7 points per game, approximately 37% of their nightly scoring production. Yikes. I’m taking the Raptors to annihilate San Antonio on their home turf.
Lots of inclement weather will interfere in this week’s games and here are a few contests where I think the under should (easily) hit. Jinxes aren’t real, don’t worry.
Oregon St/Washington St under 55 (-110), to win 1 unit
Both of these teams have better defenses than given credit for. They also have subpar offenses and this game will see 18 mph winds.
Ohio State/Northwestern under 60.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
We’ve seen the Buckeyes play down to their competition and we think this will be the quintessential example. It’s a sleepy, sleeeepy spot after a big win at Happy Valley and Northwestern is always a tough competitor. There will also be a 90+% chance of rain and over 20 mph winds blowing in. Under and the dog.
Iowa/Purdue under 41 (-110), to win 2 units
It’s an Iowa game and there’s gonna be upwards of 32 mph winds in this contest. Yea, that’s worth a 2 unit under play for this guy.
Maryland/Wisconsin under 50.5 (-110), to win 1 unit
Maryland can score points but there’s a 93% chance of rain and 20 mph winds will be ripping through Badger Stadium. Plus, have you seen Wisconsin’s offense function? Ugly.
On this week’s episode of Expected Bets For, @TopCheddarPicks, @FrancoTheBanker, @gretzkybetzkys, and I break down the two games for November 2nd along with several other topics.
Topics:
Around the League
NHL Underachievers/ Overachievers
Players
Teams
NHL Preview/ Picks – November 2nd, 2022
Philadelphia Flyers @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Buffalo Sabres
Twitter Handles:
Podcast: @ExpectedBetsFor
Patrick: @GatorBetting
Matt: @TopCheddarPicks
Chuck: @FrancoTheBanker
Betzky: @gretzkybetzkys
Any feedback is encouraged whether it’s positive or critical so please give it a listen and let me know what you think!
We have a massive slate tonight with twelve games taking place across the NHL. I’ll break down my picks and offer a few player props to target.
Pick(s):
Vegas Golden Knights in Regulation (+100) – DraftKings
Risk 0.25 to win 0.25 Units
We have a rematch of the 2018 Cup Final as the Golden Knights take on the Washington Capitals.
The Golden Knights have gone 8-2-0 to start the season under new head coach Bruce Cassidy. They’ll begin a four-game road trip tonight starting in the nation’s capital.
Washington has been plagued by injuries to start the season. They’ve gone 5-4-1 and lost last night to the Hurricanes 3-2 in a Shootout.
Vegas has looked strong in all areas but especially on defense. The Golden Knights lead the league in GA/G averaging just 1.7. Offensively, they rank 14th in GF/G and 4th in xG%. Logan Thompson has also stepped up and solidified himself as the permanent starter for this squad with a +5.1 GSAx through 6 games.
As I previously mentioned Washington has several key players injured including John Carlson and T.J. Oshie. Connor Brown, Nick Backstrom, and Tom Wilson are also out on IR. Washington ranks 22nd in GF/G but has been solid defensively ranking 10th in GA/G. Charlie Lindgren is expected to get the start for tonight who’s been great to start the year. In his two starts, he has a +3.3 GSAx.
This spot heavily favors the Golden Knights with the Capitals coming off a hard-fought battle against the Hurricanes last night. While Washington has been better at home, I believe Vegas can take this game on the road. I also like the over here. Vegas Golden Knights/ Over 6.5 is +215 on DraftKings, just saying.
Boston Bruins/ Pittsburgh Penguins over 6.0 (-125) – DraftKings
Risk 0.31 to win 0.25 Units
The Boston Bruins are currently tied for the most points in the NHL with the Golden Knights but have a game in hand. They’ve been red hot starting off the year 8-1 under new head coach Jim Montgomery.
Pittsburgh on the other hand has had a mediocre start going 4-4-1 through their first nine games. The good news for them is that they’ve been much better at home with a 3-0-0 record.
Boston currently ranks 1st in GF/G averaging 4.22, mainly thanks to David Pastrnak who’s averaging nearly two points per game. Brad Marchand has also returned to the lineup sooner than most expected tallying three points in his season debut. On the road, Boston improves offensively averaging 4.67 GF/G. While they only average 2.33 GA/G overall, away from home that number jumps up to 3.00.
Pittsburgh has also been good up front averaging 3.56 GF/G ranking 7th. Shockingly, Sidney Crosby leads their team in points but they’ve also had some depth production from Carter, Guentzel, Heinen, and Zucker. I mentioned this above but Pittsburgh has been much better at home where they average 6.00 GF/G.
Given each team’s home/away splits, I like the over here. While Ulmark has been great to start the year, I still believe Pittsburgh will be able to get a few by him. Jarry on the other hand has struggled in his six starts and will face the number one offense tonight.
Edmonton Oilers in Regulation (-105) – DraftKings
Risk 0.26 to win 0.25 Units
The Predators have had a bizarre start to their season. They played their first two games in Prague, where they won both against an inferior opponent. Since then, they’ve lost six of their last seven games.
Edmonton seems to be clicking on all cylinders at the moment and is coming off a 3-0 road trip where they defeated St. Louis, Chicago, and rival Calgary.
Nashville has struggled to produce offensively ranking 29th in GF/G averaging 2.44. On the road, that number drops to 2.33 GF/G. Defensively, they’re middle of the pack averaging 3.11 GA/G but away from home that number jumps to 4.00 GA/G.
Edmonton’s offense has been red hot lately and on the year averages 3.78 GF/G. That number slightly drops at home but is not large enough to warrant concern. Defensively, they’ve improved since the start of the year and average 3.11 GA/G.
Nashville relies heavily on Juuse Saro’s and when you combine his lackluster play with their inability to produce offensively, it’s not a great combination. Edmonton has looked more like the team we thought they would be and is getting depth production from their second and third lines up front. While goaltending remains an issue for the Oilers with Jack Campbell struggling, I still like the Oilers to put together a solid performance tonight and win at home.
Player Props to Target:
Mika Zibanejad over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-135)
He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.8 SOG and over 7 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. Philadelphia also ranks 30th in SOG Allowed per game.
Jake DeBrusk over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-135)
He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.8 SOG and 6 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in four of his last five. Pittsburgh also ranks 29th in SOG Allowed per game.
Matthew Tkachuk over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-150)
He’s gone over this number in four of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 5.6 SOG and over 8 shot attempts per game. On the road, he’s recorded over 3.5 SOG in four of his last five. Arizona also ranks 31st in SOG Allowed per game.
Vincent Trocheck over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-190)
He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 4.2 SOG and over 7 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 2.5 SOG in each of his last five games. Philadelphia also ranks 30th in SOG Allowed per game.
Nicholas Paul over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-200)
He’s gone over this number in each of his last 5 games. During that span, he’s averaging 2.4 SOG and over 3 shot attempts per game. At home, he’s recorded over 1.5 SOG in four of his last five. Ottawa also ranks 26th in SOG Allowed per game.
Best of luck, and as always you can find me on Twitter @GatorBetting and Instagram @Gator_Sports_Betting.
Contest-winner and expert handicapper Chris Farley is back to talk some NFL action! This week he’s joined by 30-year media pro and expert handicapper Tony George! Check out their conversation about what it takes to succeed in sports betting, and Tony and Chris take a deep dive into two NFL contests this weekend.
Want Chris’ premium picks– you should probably consider it. Chris is currently on a white hot +20 unit run over the last 4 weeks and he’s primed for the NFL and NBA seasons! Here’s a few more reasons why you might want to consider:
2-year 57% record in the NBA, over 800 picks and over 130 units won
Circa Millions III 5th place winner, 114k cash prize
2-year 55% record in the NFL, over 60 units won
Host, analyst, and contributor on various podcasts and sports betting companies
Detailed analysis in every email, every day, and 100% performance transparency
I handed out a play in this matchup yesterday, but the postponement gives us a different pitching matchup today. As such, I am on a new(but similar) play for Game 3 of the World Series. To receive a text when I release/add any plays, join my Telegram group!
*MLB(1u): Astros/Phillies F5 OVER 4(-120)–7:03 PM CT
I initially played the Phillies F5 TT OVER 1.5, but upon last night’s postponement and today’s pitching change, I like the Astros offense equally as much as I do Philadelphia’s early in this game.
The Phillies handled righties in their home ballpark better than any team in baseball down the final 2 months of the season(136 wRC+), and that has carried over into the postseason. The Phillies have crushed the likes of Spencer Strider, Charlie Morton, Mike Clevinger, and Joe Musgrove at Citizens Bank Park this postseason. Astros SP Lance McCullers Jr does have postseason pedigree, but a large chunk of that dates back to the 2017 ALCS. I’m not afraid to bet against McCullers because he has walked over 4.5 BB/9 on the road each of the past 2 seasons and looked shaky against the Yankees in his last start. McCullers is no more equipped to hold down this Phillies lineup than any of the other 4 aforementioned arms; I think Philadelphia puts up at least 2 in the F5.
The Astros struggled vs righties on the road down the stretch of the season(which is why I was hesitant to back them last night), but the same can’t be said about how they’ve fared vs lefties. Over the final 2 months of the season, Houston held the best wRC+ in baseball(137) on the road vs left-handed pitching. Phillies SP Ranger Suarez had an inconsistent 2022 season, especially at Citizens Bank Park(4.27 ERA, 1.52 WHIP). While he still does a good job of producing ground-balls, he allowed more than double the amount of HR’s this year than he did in 2021. I like the way Houston matches up with this “pitch-to-contact” lefty.
With two fresh bullpens, I really don’t want any part of the later innings. Both of these SP’s are vulnerable in this particular matchup, and I expect both offenses to be able to take advantage.
The BULLS have only lost one 3rd QTR all year and that was when they were WAY up on the Pacers a few games ago. Bet them LIVE -1.5 or less to cover the 3rd if they’re down. That’s an official 1 unit bet if/when that happens.
These damn NBA plays going 50% for like 4 fucking days in a row and it’s starting to piss me off. Onto another day, cuz that’s all we can do.
Bulls 1H ML (anything -120 or less), to win 1.5 units
The Nets are at home, complete with STOP ANTISEMITISM signs right by Kyrie as he plays, and this Nets team just still isn’t showing me much. They could have easily lost last night’s game to the Pacers, nearly letting them come back and really only outplaying them in the 1st quarter. The Bulls are a full 3 days of rest and even though they’ve sucked on the road for quite some time now (including a 20-24 record last season), I think they can win this contest. I’d just rather take them in the first half. Chicago is one of the best first half scoring teams in the NBA, averaging 60 points a game. We’ll go with Chicago early.
Warriors/Heat under 227 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Heat’s pace drops even lower at home and it’s the same with Golden State on the road– they succumb to the other team’s tempo. The Heat are allowing teams to score too many points too often and after facing one fast-paced team after another, they’ll be looking to bring the clamps on defense and slow the Warriors’ pace in a revenge game. Miami hasn’t been great in areas where they’re usually sterling; things like defensive rebounds, defense in the paint, and creating turnovers. The Warriors players commented on how successfully they played defense in their matchup against Miami last Thursday and they’ll be comfortable again here today. If the Heat make the improvements we expect, we love the under.
Thunder -3 (-110), to win 1.5 units
The Thunder are doing a few things really well right now. They’re not turning the ball over, their ball-movement has been pristine, they’re creating second-chance opportunities, and they’re playing some pretty damn good defense (52.7% opponent effective FG %). The Magic are very hurt and in another tough road spot, while OKC stays home until this weekend. There’s a lot to like about the Thunder here. Go OKC!
We have a great but short show for you today! Kiev O’Neil recaps a big weekend in college, UFC and NFL football! First, Kiev get’s into the Good, the Bad and the Ugly from the weekend. Next, we get into some College and NFL football recap with box score analysis, injuries and betting spots. Then, Kiev gives out a FREE PLAY for college football week 9! Finally, Kiev is solo today getting into fantasy football with key injuries, waiver wire, and players trending up for next weekend! Want to ask us something for the Monday Mailbag? Or just want us to break down a game? Send us the question at Info@TheOddsBreakers.com. Have a wonderful week!
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My man Nick Richards! If you haven’t followed me on twitter yet(@freecheesekid) you wouldn’t understand my undying love for this man so far this season.
Nick Richards is a 7’0″ freak athlete. He is currently on the bench for the Charlotte Hornets, but I suspect by the trade deadline, Mason Plumlee will be sent away and this will be his job. He is very solid in the pick and roll game. Mostly because for a 7’0″ true center, guys just don’t move like he does. He reminds me of Hassan Whiteside. It took him 3 NBA seasons to see the court but that 3rd year, he erupted (Richards is now in his 3rd season). Richards isn’t the defensive player Hassan was but he has the height and mobility to snag any board near him.
Anyways, he averages just a hair under 3 minutes less than Plumlee (21.7) so he is getting PT (26th for all centers). I can only imagine he might start creeping towards even minutes with Plumlee. Lamelo Ball and Richards will be a nice pick and roll combo when he returns, and I might look to add his points prop when he does.
Richards is averaging 7.5 REB/gme. His total is set at 5.5 tonight -130(BetMGM) and has been almost all season. I think it should be at least 6.5 around -115 odds. He has gone over 5 of the 6 games this year. The lone game he didn’t get 5 rebounds, both teams were on fire shooting in the 60% range until the end. There was minimal chances and he still was only 2 boards shy. He had 2 boards slip out of his hands and another taken, which would have netted him 7 on the night.
Sacramento is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league, 27th (8.2 Orbs/g). This should give Nick plenty of opportunity to get his boards on the defensive end.
He is also 1st in ORB% and 17th in True Rebound %. THIS GUY GET BOARDS.
His number on Oct. 29th was 5.5 for -105… Vegas is catching on but still give us the number we need to play it. There is Monday Night Football and NBA props are generally softer when there is primetime football.
Take Nick Richards o5.5 Rebound -130 (BetMGM) -If you wait you may be able to get a better number, this is the only line I currently see. Typically his lie doesn’t come out until an hour before tip-off.
